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Aqueduct presents an eight-race card today consisting entirely of dirt races, with distances ranging from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. The card features a Maiden Special Weight opener for fillies and mares, a Maiden Claiming second race, two claiming routes in the middle of the card, a Maiden Optional Claiming sprint for three-year-olds, a claiming event for fillies and mares, and two New York-bred Starter Allowance races to close the card.
The purses range from $28,000 (Race 4, the lowest-level claimer) to $80,000 (Race 1, the Maiden Special Weight). The card is well-distributed with three route races at one mile, two routes at 1 1/8 miles, and two sprints at six furlongs. The Starter Allowance races in the seventh and eighth serve as the feature events, carrying $57,000 purses and restricted to New York-bred horses.
A critical factor today is the scratch watch. Several horses have been flagged for potential scratches due to veterinary illness, including Antietam (Race 2, PP4), Apalta (Race 3, PP2), Fever Night (Race 3, PP3), Commandperformance (Race 4, PP4), Final Joke (Race 5, PP3), and My First Love (Race 6, PP1). If all scratches materialize, Races 2, 3, and 4 will each be reduced to five-horse fields, dramatically altering the dynamics of those events and the exotic wagering pools. Handicappers must monitor these scratches closely before committing to multi-race wagers.
Linda Rice, who set a single-season NYRA record with 165 training victories in 2025, enters today’s card with a commanding lead in the Aqueduct winter meet trainer standings (32 wins from 126 starts, a 25.4% strike rate). She has entries in six of the eight races and saddles multiple entrants in Races 3 and 6, making her the dominant barn on the card.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather presents a significant concern for today’s card. The forecast calls for cloudy skies with a high of 36 degrees and a low of 32 degrees. A wintry mix is expected during the afternoon racing hours, with a chance of rain, sleet, and snow showers beginning around post time and intensifying through the evening. East winds will blow at 15 to 20 mph, creating significant wind chill. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the area, with the potential for 1-3 inches of snow accumulation into the overnight hours.
Given the precipitation forecast, the main track — which has been rated fast during recent cards — may deteriorate as the card progresses. If rain or wet snow falls steadily, NYRA could upgrade the track condition from fast to good or even muddy by the later races. Handicappers should pay close attention to the real-time track condition updates from NYRA, particularly for the later races (Races 6, 7, and 8), which are scheduled between 3:42 PM and 4:43 PM when precipitation is most likely.
The cold temperatures (mid-30s) combined with wind and moisture can create a surface that produces heavier kickback than normal, which historically hurts closers who must run through traffic. If the track becomes wet, speed horses may lose some of their advantage, as moisture can deaden the surface and allow off-the-pace types to sustain their rallies. This dynamic may partly offset the persistent rail/speed bias that has characterized the track in recent weeks.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Aqueduct’s main dirt track has displayed a pronounced inside/speed bias throughout the first six weeks of the winter meet. NYRA handicapper Andy Serling’s track trend reports document a consistent pattern:
From February 4 through February 15, the rail has been a significant advantage on nearly every racing day. Serling described February 13 as featuring an “extreme inside bias,” noting that saving ground for the majority of the race was “pretty much a prerequisite for success.” On February 12, 11, and earlier dates, the rail continued as a major asset. Even on February 15, the most recent racing date, while Serling observed some moderation in the bias, he noted that “saving ground for an extended portion of the race still appeared to be a significant advantage.”
Speed has also been a beneficiary. Front-runners and pace-pressers breaking from inside posts have dominated results, wiring fields at an unusually high rate. In six-furlong and seven-furlong sprints, the inside path has punished deep closers attempting to rally from the back. In route races at 1 1/8 miles, the bias softens slightly, allowing tactical stalkers to challenge front-runners. However, one-run closers have needed pace collapses to have realistic chances.
For today’s card, handicappers should upgrade horses with natural early speed drawn inside and penalize deep closers drawn outside. However, if precipitation arrives and the track becomes wet or sealed, monitor for any shift in the bias. A softer surface could blunt the inside advantage and give closers a better opportunity.
In Aqueduct’s one-mile races (Races 1, 2, and 6), the one-turn configuration means the field runs into the far turn relatively quickly. Inside posts retain their advantage here because horses drawn outside must cover extra ground to establish position. In the 1 1/8-mile races (Races 3 and 4), the two-turn configuration somewhat neutralizes the post draw, but the rail path remains critical.
Race 1 — Maiden Special Weight — 1 Mile Dirt — Purse $80,000
Post Time
1:10 PM EST
Pace Analysis
This five-horse field for maiden fillies and mares lacks a dominant front-runner, which should produce a moderate to slow pace. Dimensionality (PP2) has shown the most early speed in her recent efforts and figures to be forwardly placed from her inside draw. Trango Tower (PP1) has the rail and can position herself tactically in the early stages. Raghba (PP5), the clear morning-line favorite at 1-1, has been running as a closer who finishes strongly but has failed to convert four second-place finishes into a victory. The pace scenario sets up as a tactical affair with fractions likely running slow through the half-mile, which should compress the field heading into the stretch.
Key Contenders
Raghba (PP5, 1-1 ML) is the consensus top choice across virtually every handicapping outlet. Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Manuel Franco, she boasts a record of 0-4-5 from eight career starts with $173,800 in earnings. Her consistency is undeniable — she has hit the board in five of her last six starts at Aqueduct, including back-to-back runner-up finishes over this one-mile distance on dirt. Her closing style is her chief weapon but also her vulnerability, as the prevailing inside bias makes rallying from far back a risky proposition. Franco, the meet’s leading rider with 29 wins and a 21.0% strike rate, should have her in a good stalking position rather than allowing her to drift too far back.
Inefficiency (PP3, 5-2 ML) is the most intriguing runner in this field. Trained by Chad Brown (21.4% win rate at the meet) and ridden by Jaime Rodriguez, she is a first-time starter with no racing record. Brown’s 22% win rate with first-time starters on the NYRA circuit makes any debut runner from his barn dangerous, and the morning line reflects the respect this filly commands. NYRA’s own Andy Serling makes her his top pick in this race. Brown does not typically unveil a runner at 5-2 morning-line odds unless he expects a forward showing. If she has any tactical speed, the inside post 3 draw puts her in prime position to exploit the bias.
Secondary Choices
Dimensionality (PP2, 3-1 ML) brings the most experience, with 12 career starts and three seconds and six thirds. Trained by John Terranova II and ridden by Flavien Prat (33.3% win rate at the meet), she has been competitive in this exact condition, finishing third and fourth in her last two starts here. Her “fastest deep” running style suggests she tries to run from forward positions at her best pace. The inside PP2 draw and Prat’s elite rider skills make her dangerous, especially if the pace collapses in front of her.
Trango Tower (PP1, 4-1 ML) draws the coveted rail post in a bias-favoring environment. Trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Jose Lezcano (26.3% win rate), she has shown in three of six career starts and is classified as a “fast closer.” If Lezcano can position her on the rail and save ground into the far turn, the inside post could vault her into contention. Her 0-0-3 record suggests she can hit the board but may lack the final punch to win.
Longshots
Pay the Bills (PP4, 30-1 ML) is a five-year-old French-bred mare with 12 career starts and no wins, no seconds, and no thirds. She is trained by Richard Metivier (0% win rate at the meet from 19 starts) and ridden by Omar Hernandez Moreno. Her recent dirt form at Aqueduct has been poor, finishing seventh in her last two outings. She appears to be severely overmatched.
Selections
Win: Inefficiency (PP3)
Place: Raghba (PP5)
Show: Trango Tower (PP1)
Betting Strategy
This race centers on whether you want to take a stand against the heavy favorite Raghba at low odds or look for value. Inefficiency is the play here. A first-time starter from Chad Brown at 5-2 morning-line odds represents a trainer who historically wins at a high clip with debuters on the NYRA circuit. If she draws into an inside position and shows any tactical speed, the bias should help her immensely. Key her on top in exactas and trifectas over Raghba, Trango Tower, and Dimensionality. A $1 exacta box of 3-5 costs $2, and adding Trango Tower and Dimensionality underneath for a $0.50 trifecta key of 3 with 1-2-5 with 1-2-5 provides a solid structure.
Race 2 — Maiden Claiming $40,000 — 1 Mile Dirt — Purse $44,000
Post Time
1:41 PM EST
Pace Analysis
Note: Antietam (PP4) is on the scratch watch with a vet illness flag. If scratched, this race loses the morning-line favorite and reshapes the entire race.
Assuming a full field, the pace projects as moderate. Ice Shot (PP5) and Restless Renegade (PP3) both have some tactical speed and should be forwardly placed. Shellac (PP2) from the inside draw can save ground early. If Antietam scratches, Ice Shot becomes the likely favorite and the pace may slow further without his presence as a second speed presence. Mr R T (PP1) draws the rail but shows little early speed and would benefit only if the bias carries him along.
Key Contenders
Antietam (PP4, 9-5 ML) is the morning-line favorite trained by Linda Rice and assigned to Jose Lezcano. However, he is flagged for a potential scratch due to veterinary illness. If he runs, his connections alone make him a standout — Rice and Lezcano are the leading trainer and second-leading jockey at the meet. Handicappers should not build exotic tickets around him until his status is confirmed.
Ice Shot (PP5, 2-1 ML) trained by Chad Summers and ridden by Luis R. Rivera Jr., becomes the primary contender if Antietam scratches. The Summers barn has been quietly productive this meet (4 wins, 21.1% from 19 starts). Multiple handicapping sources rank Ice Shot as the top or second choice in this race. The horse wears blinkers, which could help him focus and establish forward position.
Restless Renegade (PP3, 5-2 ML) is trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Kendrick Carmouche. This gelding is making his career debut and Rice’s excellent record with debuting maidens at this level demands respect. Carmouche (17 wins, 20.5% win rate) is a reliable pilot for the Rice barn. Drawing post 3 allows him to save ground early and position himself tactically.
Secondary Choices
Shellac (PP2, 7-2 ML) trained by William Morey and ridden by Christopher Elliott, has one prior start and some experience to draw on. He draws inside and should benefit from the rail bias. Both NYRA handicappers (Serling and Verderosa) place him at the top of their selections for this race, a notable endorsement.
Longshots
Mr R T (PP1, 20-1 ML) draws the rail with apprentice Dalila Rivera aboard. He is trained by Jose Jimenez and carries a 5-lb weight allowance at 115 lbs. The rail draw gives him a chance to outrun his odds in a small field, especially if the bias is as strong as it has been. Worth a small saver in vertical exotics.
Klimt Master (PP6, 30-1 ML) trained by Eduardo Jones and ridden by Trevor Simpson, shows little to recommend at this level.
Selections
Win: Shellac (PP2)
Place: Restless Renegade (PP3)
Show: Ice Shot (PP5)
Betting Strategy
Both NYRA in-house handicappers tab Shellac on top, which diverges from the morning line where he is 7-2. If the public hammers Ice Shot and Antietam (if he runs), Shellac could offer nice value from the inside draw. Use Shellac on top of exactas keying Restless Renegade and Ice Shot underneath. If Antietam scratches, this race becomes more playable and spreads should be narrower.
Race 3 — Claiming $20,000 (NW2L) — 1 1/8 Miles Dirt — Purse $35,000
Post Time
2:11 PM EST
Pace Analysis
Critical scratch watch: Both Apalta (PP2) and Fever Night (PP3) — the top two morning-line choices and both Linda Rice entrants — are flagged for potential scratches due to vet illness. If both scratch, this race becomes a four-horse field featuring Whitby, Carlin Contention, Come to Papa, and Maldini, dramatically changing the complexion.
In a full field, Apalta and Fever Night would command the pace from inside posts. Without them, Come to Papa (PP5) and Maldini (PP6) likely set the pace in a slow half-mile, with Whitby (PP1) stalking from the rail. The 1 1/8-mile distance rewards tactical speed and stamina rather than pure sprint speed.
Key Contenders
Apalta (PP2, 8-5 ML) is the clear morning-line favorite, trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Flavien Prat. He is the consensus top pick across almost every handicapping source. However, the vet illness scratch flag creates significant uncertainty. If he runs, he projects as the dominant horse with the best connections in the field. Prat at 33.3% win rate and Rice at 25.4% is the best jockey-trainer combo on the grounds.
Come to Papa (PP5, 7-2 ML) trained by Rob Atras and ridden by Kendrick Carmouche, becomes a primary contender if the Rice pair scratches. Atras has 2 wins from 11 starts at the meet. Carmouche should position this gelding close to the pace in a potential small field.
Secondary Choices
Maldini (PP6, 9-2 ML) trained by Devon Gittens and ridden by Reylu Gutierrez, receives attention from handicappers. Andy Serling places him among his top four choices, and one source has him at the top in Race 3. He may have the best late kick if the pace is slow enough to allow a closing run.
Whitby (PP1, 5-1 ML) trained by Mark Hennig and ridden by Jaime Rodriguez, draws the rail in a bias-favoring environment. Hennig has been productive with 2 wins and 5 seconds from 20 starts. The rail draw is a significant asset in the current track configuration, and Rodriguez has been riding well with 22 wins at the meet. If the pace is contested and the closers are neutralized, the rail-running Whitby could hang in longer than expected.
Longshots
Carlin Contention (PP4, 20-1 ML) trained by James Ryerson and ridden by Christopher Elliott, is a deep longshot who shows little to recommend based on form. Only useful as a minor exotic inclusion if the field shrinks dramatically.
Selections
Win: Maldini (PP6)
Place: Come to Papa (PP5)
Show: Whitby (PP1)
Betting Strategy
This race is extremely volatile pending scratches. If Apalta and Fever Night both scratch, the reduced field of four horses limits exotic payoffs but creates a wide-open race. NYRA handicapper Verderosa puts Maldini on top, which makes him a contrarian play worth backing. In a small field, consider exacta boxes of Maldini, Come to Papa, and Whitby. Wait for scratch confirmation before committing significant money.
Race 4 — Claiming $10,000 — 1 1/8 Miles Dirt — Purse $28,000
Post Time
2:42 PM EST
Pace Analysis
Commandperformance (PP4) is on the scratch watch. If he is withdrawn, the field drops to five.
The pace scenario is interesting. Flat On (PP3) and Laughing Boy (PP5) are the top two morning-line choices. Flat On, trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Manuel Franco, has shown tactical speed and should be forwardly placed. Laughing Boy, an eight-year-old horse trained by Michael Miceli and ridden by Jose Lezcano, is listed as a “fastest stalker” and the even-money morning-line favorite despite his age. Six Kings (PP6), classified as a “fast leads” type, could push the pace from outside. If multiple speed types engage, the pace could be honest, which would benefit stalkers like Laughing Boy.
Key Contenders
Flat On (PP3, 7-5 ML) is trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Manuel Franco. He has the winning trainer-jockey combo at the meet, and the 7-5 morning line reflects his class edge. Franco will have him positioned inside, likely in the two-path, with the ability to pounce turning for home. Multiple handicapping sources and the NYRA guest handicapper Verderosa place Flat On as the top pick.
Laughing Boy (PP5, 1-1 ML) is the morning-line co-favorite despite being eight years old. Trained by Michael Miceli (18.2% win rate at the meet) and ridden by Jose Lezcano, his “fastest stalker” style means he sits just behind the pace and strikes. He carries the highest weight at 123 lbs and has significant career earnings of $430,700. His experience at this level is vast, with 9 starts showing 11% wins and 67% in-the-money at the distance.
Secondary Choices
Six Kings (PP6, 6-1 ML) trained by Robert Falcone Jr. and ridden by Christopher Elliott, is a “fast leads” type who will try to wire the field from the outside. His 3-win, 6-second, 8-third record from 20 career starts shows consistency. He gets a 2-lb weight allowance at 121 lbs. Andy Serling makes him his top pick in Race 4, which is a significant vote of confidence.
Eric From Miami (PP2, 8-1 ML) trained by Wayne Potts and ridden by Omar Hernandez Moreno, has a record of 4-5-10 from 32 career starts. He is a “slower deep” runner, which works against him in the current bias. However, if precipitation arrives and the track changes, his closing style could improve. The PP2 inside draw helps offset his style disadvantage.
Longshots
Nobodyridesforfree (PP1, 20-1 ML) draws the rail for trainer Lolita Shivmangal. The rail is pure gold in the current environment, and while this seven-year-old gelding is outclassed, the post alone gives him a shot at a minor award in a small field.
Selections
Win: Flat On (PP3)
Place: Laughing Boy (PP5)
Show: Six Kings (PP6)
Betting Strategy
Flat On and Laughing Boy will likely be pounded down to short prices. The value play is Six Kings, who gets the Serling endorsement and could wire this field if he breaks sharply from the gate. Use a trifecta key with Flat On and Six Kings on top over the rest. A $0.50 trifecta of 3,6 with 3,5,6 with 1,2,3,5,6 provides coverage at a reasonable cost.
Race 5 — Maiden Optional Claiming $75,000 — 6 Furlongs Dirt — Purse $70,000
Post Time
3:12 PM EST
Pace Analysis
Final Joke (PP3) is on the scratch watch due to vet illness. This is the only sprint on the early portion of the card, and speed is king in six-furlong dashes at Aqueduct, especially with the prevailing bias. Frankie Coffeecake (PP5) and Mitolegayne (PP1) are the two horses most likely to show speed. If they engage in a duel through the opening quarter, horses like Two Ducks (PP2) and Waitin’onasunnyday (PP4) could benefit from a pace meltdown. However, in the current track environment, a speed duel at six furlongs does not always create the passing opportunities closers need.
Key Contenders
Frankie Coffeecake (PP5, 8-5 ML) is the morning-line favorite in his career debut, trained by Kathleen Demasi and ridden by Silvestre Gonzalez. Multiple algorithmic models rank him as the top choice in this field. As a first-time starter drawing post 5 in a seven-horse field, he has a good position to establish himself early and avoid traffic. However, Gonzalez has limited recent form at the meet (1 win from 3 starts).
Mitolegayne (PP1, 3-1 ML) trained by Chris Englehart and ridden by Manuel Franco, draws the inside rail and has the meet’s leading rider in the irons. Franco’s 21% win rate and his ability to use the rail in the current bias environment make this combination attractive. Multiple handicapping sources rank him as a top two choice. Englehart has struggled somewhat at the winter meet (1 win from 30 starts), but a class runner on the rail with Franco aboard is always dangerous.
Secondary Choices
Two Ducks (PP2, 4-1 ML) trained by Carlos Martin and ridden by Ruben Silvera, draws post 2 and can save ground throughout. In a sprint race with a speed bias, drawing inside is extremely valuable. He could sit just behind the speed and get first run at the leaders.
Waitin’onasunnyday (PP4, 6-1 ML) trained by John Kimmel and ridden by Ricardo Santana Jr., has some appeal at a price. Santana has been productive when he gets live mounts.
Longshots
Bold Love (PP7, 8-1 ML) trained by Chad Summers and ridden by Luis R. Rivera Jr., shows some intrigue at a price. Summers has four wins at the meet, and the 8-1 odds could push higher.
Trapping Hands (PP6, 12-1 ML) trained by Roshan Samsundar (50% win rate from 4 starts at the meet), offers a live longshot possibility if the pace collapses.
Selections
Win: Mitolegayne (PP1)
Place: Frankie Coffeecake (PP5)
Show: Two Ducks (PP2)
Betting Strategy
The rail draw combined with Manuel Franco is too potent to ignore in a sprint at Aqueduct right now. Mitolegayne is the play at 3-1 morning-line odds, which could drift slightly higher if the public keys on Frankie Coffeecake. Build exactas and trifectas with Mitolegayne on top over Frankie Coffeecake, Two Ducks, and Waitin’onasunnyday. This is also a crucial race in multi-race sequences, as a single on Mitolegayne saves considerable cost in Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets.
Race 6 — Claiming $16,000 — 1 Mile Dirt — Purse $40,000
Post Time
3:42 PM EST
Pace Analysis
My First Love (PP1) is flagged on the scratch watch. If she is withdrawn, the field drops to six. This is a one-mile claiming race for fillies and mares. Coquito (PP3) and Curlin’s Magic (PP4) are both Linda Rice entries and figure to race close to the pace, with Coquito potentially showing more speed. Patty Cakes (PP2) from the inside should be forwardly placed. If the pace is honest, Curlin’s Magic, who may stalk slightly off the speed, could get the jump in the stretch. If it is slow, Coquito may try to steal it on the front end.
Key Contenders
Coquito (PP3, 8-5 ML) is trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Jose Lezcano. She is the slight morning-line favorite and the consensus top pick from multiple sources. Verderosa (NYRA) places her on top, as do the Racing Dudes selections. Lezcano’s 26.3% win rate at the meet and Rice’s dominant 25.4% strike rate form an elite combination.
Curlin’s Magic (PP4, 9-5 ML) is also trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Flavien Prat. This creates a barn entry situation where Rice essentially has a 1-2 punch in the race. Serling makes Curlin’s Magic his top pick. Prat at 33.3% is the highest-percentage rider at the meet. Both Rice runners figure to control the race from the front or just off the pace, making it difficult for rivals to get past them.
Secondary Choices
Patty Cakes (PP2, 4-1 ML) trained by Gustavo Rodriguez and ridden by Kendrick Carmouche, draws the inside and benefits from the rail bias. She sits third in the morning line and could play spoiler if the Rice duo engages each other in a pace battle. Carmouche’s solid meet (17 wins, 20.5%) makes this runner a viable exacta and trifecta inclusion.
Longshots
Floge (PP6, 10-1 ML) trained by Jesus Romero and ridden by Ricardo Santana Jr., offers price appeal if the favorites stumble. Romero has a 50% win rate from 4 starts at the meet.
Brooklyn Dantz (PP7, 20-1 ML) and Troubled Luck (PP5, 30-1 ML) appear overmatched against the Rice entries.
Selections
Win: Coquito (PP3)
Place: Curlin’s Magic (PP4)
Show: Patty Cakes (PP2)
Betting Strategy
The Rice barn dominates this race with both Coquito and Curlin’s Magic. Expect one of them to win. The value play is in exactas and trifectas using both Rice runners on top and Patty Cakes, Floge, and Brooklyn Dantz underneath. A $1 exacta box of 3-4 costs $2, and expanding to include Patty Cakes in the trifecta key of 3,4 with 3,4 with 2,6 provides affordable coverage.
Race 7 — Starter Allowance — 6 Furlongs Dirt — Purse $57,000 (NY-Bred)
Post Time
4:13 PM EST
Pace Analysis
This is a six-furlong sprint for New York-bred fillies and mares restricted to horses that have started for $35,000 or less. Speed will be paramount in this sprint, and the inside posts carry extra weight given the bias. Cloudy Chance (PP2) and Undergrad (PP4) are likely to show the most early speed. Graceful Rose (PP1) draws the rail but may not have the pure speed to lead; she could save ground and make a late bid. The pace should be honest with multiple speed types in the field, which could open the door for a closer if the early fractions are fast enough.
Key Contenders
Undergrad (PP4, 2-1 ML) is trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Jose Lezcano. She is the clear morning-line favorite and the consensus top pick from the algorithmic models. Her connections are the best in the race. Lezcano will position her tactically, and if she can save ground through the turn from post 4, she should have every chance to run down the leaders in the stretch. Rice’s 25.4% win rate and Lezcano’s 26.3% make this the most reliable combination in the field.
Cloudy Chance (PP2, 4-1 ML) is trained by Chris Englehart and ridden by Manuel Franco. Drawing post 2 with the meet’s leading rider gives this filly a major positional advantage. Franco can put her on or near the lead and dare the others to catch her. Both NYRA handicappers include her prominently in their selections — Verderosa puts her on top, and Serling ranks her second.
Secondary Choices
I’m Kidding (PP7, 7-2 ML) trained by Rudy Rodriguez and ridden by Ruben Silvera, is the Racing Dudes’ top pick in this race. She draws outside in post 7, which is a disadvantage in the current bias, but Rodriguez has 5 wins at the meet and knows how to position sprinters. If she has enough speed to cross over and save ground early, she could be a factor at a reasonable price.
Graceful Rose (PP1, 9-2 ML) trained by Michael Gorham and ridden by Jaime Rodriguez, draws the rail. In any bias environment favoring the inside, a rail draw in a sprint is golden. Rodriguez has been effective with 22 wins at the meet. Even if this six-year-old mare lacks pure speed, the rail could carry her further than her form suggests.
Longshots
Twirling Lulu (PP5, 6-1 ML) trained by Bruce Levine and ridden by Kendrick Carmouche, has some appeal at a price. Levine is 5-for-21 at Belmont at the Big A, showing he can condition winners on the NYRA circuit. Carmouche is a reliable rider who can get a horse into a stalking position.
Sabby Sunset (PP3, 8-1 ML) and Fifi La Fume (PP6, 10-1 ML) appear to be in deeper water than their abilities warrant.
Selections
Win: Cloudy Chance (PP2)
Place: Undergrad (PP4)
Show: Graceful Rose (PP1)
Betting Strategy
Undergrad will likely be heavily bet as the favorite, but the value in this race lies with Cloudy Chance. Drawing post 2 with Manuel Franco in a sprint where the rail bias is extreme gives her every opportunity to outrun her 4-1 morning line. Key Cloudy Chance on top in exactas over Undergrad, I’m Kidding, and Graceful Rose. If you prefer a safer approach, box Undergrad and Cloudy Chance in the exacta and use the others underneath in trifectas.
Race 8 — Starter Allowance — 1 Mile Dirt — Purse $57,000 (NY-Bred)
Post Time
4:43 PM EST
Pace Analysis
The nightcap is a one-mile starter allowance for New York-breds. This is the most wide-open race on the card, with six of seven runners carrying morning-line odds between 5-2 and 10-1. Toga Dan (PP4) and Senegal (PP3) are likely pace types. E Z Bourbon (PP2) draws inside and could be forwardly placed. Forgone (PP6) is the morning-line favorite at 5-2 but draws wide and may need to use more energy to establish position. The pace could be contested, which would favor stalking types like Mo Kreesa (PP5).
Key Contenders
Forgone (PP6, 5-2 ML) trained by Chad Summers and ridden by Luis R. Rivera Jr., is the slight morning-line favorite and the top choice of the algorithmic model. He has a class edge over this field based on earnings and past performances. However, the post 6 draw in a one-mile race is a disadvantage in the current rail-bias environment. He will need to overcome that positional deficit.
Toga Dan (PP4, 3-1 ML) trained by Domenick Schettino and ridden by Manuel Franco, benefits from the meet’s leading rider. Franco’s 21% win rate and his tactical intelligence make him a formidable presence. Andy Serling makes Toga Dan his top pick in this race. Schettino has a win from 7 starts at the meet. From post 4, Franco can position him inside and save ground through the turn.
Secondary Choices
Romeo Void (PP7, 7-2 ML) trained by Amelia Green and ridden by Reylu Gutierrez, draws the furthest outside but comes from a barn that has been exceptional this winter meet (6 wins, 28.6% win rate from 21 starts). Green’s barn is one of the hottest at the meet, and Romeo Void was ranked among the top three by both Verderosa and Serling. The outside draw is concerning, but the talent may overcome the bias.
E Z Bourbon (PP2, 8-1 ML) trained by Mark Hennig and ridden by Jose Lezcano, draws inside in post 2 with the meet’s second-leading jockey. Verderosa makes him his top pick in Race 8. At 8-1 morning-line odds, he offers significant value if he can use the inside draw and the rail bias to outperform expectations.
Mo Kreesa (PP5, 8-1 ML) trained by Mark Hennig and ridden by Ricardo Santana Jr., is the Racing Dudes’ top pick for this race. Hennig thus has two entries in the field. The Marketwise algorithm also places Mo Kreesa on top. At 8-1 odds, he represents considerable value if the pace is contested and he can rally past tired leaders.
Longshots
Oath of Omerta (PP1, 10-1 ML) trained by Jena Antonucci and ridden by Eric Cancel, draws the rail. The inside post gives him the maximum benefit of the bias. If he has any early speed, the rail could carry him deep into the stretch at rewarding odds. Marketwise ranks him third in this race.
Senegal (PP3, 4-1 ML) trained by Thomas Morley and ridden by Jaime Rodriguez, sits comfortably in the middle of the field at 4-1 and should not be overlooked. He has a tactical style and an inside post that fits the current bias.
Selections
Win: E Z Bourbon (PP2)
Place: Toga Dan (PP4)
Show: Mo Kreesa (PP5)
Betting Strategy
This is the race to spread wide and look for value. No horse stands out, and the morning line is compressed. E Z Bourbon at 8-1 on the rail with Lezcano is the value play. Key him on top of exactas over Toga Dan, Mo Kreesa, and Forgone. Also consider a $0.50 trifecta box of E Z Bourbon, Toga Dan, and Mo Kreesa for $3. The late Pick 4 (Races 5-8) offers a prime opportunity to spread with Mitolegayne in Race 5, Coquito and Curlin’s Magic in Race 6, Cloudy Chance and Undergrad in Race 7, and E Z Bourbon, Toga Dan, and Mo Kreesa in Race 8.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Manuel Franco leads the Aqueduct winter meet with 29 wins from 138 starts (21.0% win rate) and an impressive 63.0% in-the-money percentage. He has five mounts today (Races 1 through 5 in rotation including Race 4 Flat On, Race 5 Mitolegayne, Race 7 Cloudy Chance, and Race 8 Toga Dan). Franco secured his fourth year-end NYRA title in 2025 with 206 wins across the circuit, and his consistency makes him a must-use in vertical and horizontal wagers.
Jose Lezcano is second at the meet with 25 wins from 95 starts, a sizzling 26.3% win rate. He has mounts in Races 1 (Trango Tower), 3 (Fever Night, if she runs), 4 (Laughing Boy), 6 (Coquito), 7 (Undergrad), and 8 (E Z Bourbon). Lezcano is the primary rider for the Linda Rice barn, and when that combination fires, it is extremely productive.
Flavien Prat ranks fourth in wins (20) but first in win percentage at an elite 33.3% from just 60 starts. His 71.7% in-the-money rate is the highest among leading riders. He rides Dimensionality (Race 1), Apalta (Race 3, if not scratched), and Curlin’s Magic (Race 6). Any time Prat is aboard at a reasonable price, he must be respected.
Jaime Rodriguez has quietly compiled 22 wins from 132 starts (16.7%) and rides Inefficiency (Race 1), Whitby (Race 3), and Senegal (Race 8). His volume of mounts from competitive barns makes him a useful rider to follow, particularly in vertical exotics.
Kendrick Carmouche has 17 wins from 83 starts (20.5%) and rides Restless Renegade (Race 2), Come to Papa (Race 3), Patty Cakes (Race 6), and Twirling Lulu (Race 7). Carmouche is a savvy veteran who excels at saving ground, a critical skill in the current bias environment.
Christopher Elliott (9 wins, 12.2%) rides in multiple races but at a lower strike rate. He is useful as a longshot pilot but should not be heavily keyed on top of tickets.
Ricardo Santana Jr. (4 wins, 9.1%) has been below his typical standard this meet but rides Mo Kreesa in Race 8 and Waitin’onasunnyday in Race 5. His talent can wake up at any time.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Linda Rice dominates this meet with 32 wins from 126 starts (25.4% win rate) and 58.7% in-the-money. She has entries in Races 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7 — six of the eight races. Her multiple entries in Races 3 (Apalta, Fever Night) and 6 (Coquito, Curlin’s Magic) give her a strong chance to capture those events. Rice set a single-season NYRA record in 2025 with 165 training victories, and she also leads the meet as an owner. Any Rice-trained runner demands respect, particularly at short prices where her consistent strike rate makes her a reliable anchor for exotic wagers.
Chad C. Brown has 3 wins from 14 starts (21.4%) and sends out Inefficiency (Race 1) as a first-time starter. Brown typically does not debut horses at Aqueduct in the winter unless they are ready to win, and his overall NYRA numbers with first-time starters are among the best in the sport. His 64% in-the-money rate at Belmont at the Big A confirms his runners are always competitive.
Todd Pletcher has 4 wins from 25 starts (16.0%) and trains Race 1 favorite Raghba. While his win rate is below his normal standard, his horses have been competitive with 52% in-the-money finishes. Pletcher does not frequently target low-level races, so when he enters a horse, the form study generally supports a forward showing.
Mark Hennig has 2 wins from 20 starts (10.0%) but places 5 seconds, giving him a 35% in-the-money rate. He saddles Whitby (Race 3) and both E Z Bourbon and Mo Kreesa (Race 8). Having two shots in the nightcap at 8-1 odds each gives him a strong chance to close the card with a winner.
Chad Summers has been a productive presence with 4 wins from 19 starts (21.1%). He trains Ice Shot (Race 2), Bold Love (Race 5), and Forgone (Race 8, the morning-line favorite). His barn runs hard and his horses frequently offer good value relative to their abilities.
Amelia Green is perhaps the meet’s hottest story beyond Rice. She has 6 wins from 21 starts (28.6%) with a remarkable 76.2% in-the-money rate. She saddles Romeo Void in Race 8. Horses from this barn must be taken seriously regardless of odds or post draw.
Rob Atras (2 wins, 18.2%), Rudy Rodriguez (5 wins, 17.9%), and Michael Miceli (2 wins, 18.2%) are other barns with runners today that have been competitive at the meet.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The defining feature of today’s card is the volatile scratch watch. With six horses potentially being withdrawn across five races, handicappers must remain flexible. Do not commit to multi-race wagers until the scratches are confirmed. NYRA typically announces final scratches by approximately 30-45 minutes before each race.
The early Pick 5 (Races 1-5) is the primary horizontal exotic opportunity. A suggested structure based on the analysis above: Race 1 — Inefficiency, Raghba (2 horses); Race 2 — Shellac, Restless Renegade, Ice Shot (3 horses); Race 3 — Maldini, Come to Papa (2 horses, assuming scratches); Race 4 — Flat On, Laughing Boy (2 horses); Race 5 — Mitolegayne (1 horse). At $0.50, this ticket costs $12. The single on Mitolegayne in Race 5 saves money and relies on the powerful rail/Franco combination.
The late Pick 4 (Races 5-8) offers another strong opportunity: Race 5 — Mitolegayne, Frankie Coffeecake (2); Race 6 — Coquito, Curlin’s Magic (2); Race 7 — Cloudy Chance, Undergrad (2); Race 8 — E Z Bourbon, Toga Dan, Mo Kreesa (3). At $0.50, this costs $12.
The Pick 6 (Races 3-8) is the card’s marquee exotic. A suggested structure: Race 3 — Maldini, Come to Papa, Whitby (3); Race 4 — Flat On, Laughing Boy (2); Race 5 — Mitolegayne (1); Race 6 — Coquito, Curlin’s Magic (2); Race 7 — Cloudy Chance, Undergrad (2); Race 8 — E Z Bourbon, Toga Dan, Mo Kreesa, Forgone (4). At $1, this costs $96. The Marketwise structure, which adjusts these horses slightly, prices similarly.
For individual race value plays, the strongest stand-alone wagers are:
Race 1: Inefficiency to win at 5-2 or better. A Chad Brown first-time starter with inside-draw tactical speed is the epitome of a smart play at a bias-dominated track.
Race 4: Six Kings at 6-1 morning-line odds. The Serling endorsement plus a front-running style in a race where speed dominates gives him win potential at a rewarding price.
Race 7: Cloudy Chance at 4-1 morning-line odds. Drawing post 2 with Manuel Franco in a sprint at a rail-biased track is a textbook value play.
Race 8: E Z Bourbon at 8-1 morning-line odds. Drawing post 2 with Jose Lezcano in the nightcap offers the best combination of inside draw, top rider, and odds on the entire card.
If the weather deteriorates the track surface during the later races, monitor for any shift in bias. A wet or sealed track could benefit closers and reduce the inside advantage. If you see winners coming from off the pace in Races 5 and 6, consider adjusting your late plays to include more stalker and closer types in Races 7 and 8.
