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Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans presents an 8-race card today, the Friday following a strong week that included the Risen Star Stakes and Rachel Alexandra last Saturday. The card features a mix of claiming, maiden claiming, and allowance optional claiming events across dirt and turf. Races 3, 5, and 7 are scheduled for the Stillesson Memorial Turf Course at distances of 1-1/16 miles, 1 mile, and 1 mile, respectively, with main-track-only (MTO) contingencies in place should the turf be deemed unplayable. The dirt card includes sprints at 5-1/2 furlongs and 6 furlongs along with a pair of route events.
The day’s feature is Race 6, a $55,000 Allowance Optional Claiming sprint at 6 furlongs on the dirt for 3-year-olds, headlined by the prohibitive morning-line favorite Knock It Off (PP2) for trainer Steven Asmussen and jockey Jose Ortiz. The 154th racing season at Fair Grounds continues to attract the nation’s top horsemen, with the meet running through March 22, and two additional dates recently added to the calendar.
A notable carryover of $73,206 exists in the Jackpot Pick 6, which begins with Race 3. This provides a significant wagering opportunity for players looking to take a shot at the pool. The scratch watch includes several horses on veterinarian and MTO lists, particularly in Races 2, 3, and 5, so bettors should monitor late changes carefully.
Post time for Race 1 is 12:45 PM CST (1:45 PM ET).
Weather and Track Conditions
Today’s forecast for the Fair Grounds area calls for mostly sunny skies with patchy fog during the morning hours and a slight chance of showers developing in the afternoon. Highs will reach the lower 80s, with south winds at 5 to 10 mph. The chance of rain is only 20 percent, with the most likely window for any precipitation arriving late in the afternoon. Hourly forecasts show temperatures in the upper 70s to 80 degrees through the afternoon racing hours, with humidity levels between 60 and 70 percent.
The overnight hours leading into today saw partly overcast skies with temperatures around 70 degrees and passing showers possible around midnight, but accumulation amounts were negligible. Given the warm, mostly dry conditions, the dirt surface should be labeled Fast for the opening race and remain that way throughout the card. The turf course, which was listed as Firm for Wednesday’s racing, should maintain that designation barring any surprise showers. The warm temperatures and south winds will keep moisture levels manageable, and the turf races should go as scheduled.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
The Fair Grounds main dirt track has demonstrated a pronounced bias toward early speed and inside posts throughout the 2025-2026 meet. In dirt sprints at six furlongs, horses possessing early speed have dominated, winning nearly a third of all contests wire to wire. The rail and inside posts (1-3) carry a significant advantage in these sprint events, making it difficult for deep closers to make up ground on the sweeping turns unless a complete pace meltdown occurs.
Recent data confirms that forward runners continue to be the ones to target on the Fair Grounds dirt. Posts 1-3 are winning 45 percent of dirt sprints, which is a dominant trend that must be factored into every dirt race on today’s card. Dirt routes at 1-1/16 miles show a similar pattern, favoring early speed and tactical pressers who can secure the inside rail position heading into the first turn.
On the turf course, a different dynamic is at play. Stalkers have emerged as the dominant running style in turf routes over recent weeks, winning 43 percent of races and separating themselves from other running styles. This is a critical distinction from the dirt bias and should inform selections in Races 3, 5, and 7. The rail is set at 7 feet today for all turf races.
Race 1 — Claiming, 5-1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $15,000
Post Time: 12:45 PM CST
Louisiana-bred fillies and mares, 4 and up, claiming $5,000. Eight runners entered.
Pace Analysis
This race features moderate early speed. Good N Sassy (PP7) is the fastest early runner in the field and figures to try to clear from the outside, while Custom Punch (PP4) is also a fast leader type who will break alertly from a mid-inside post. Clever Race (PP5) has shown stalking speed in her recent form and should sit a comfortable trip just off the leaders. Lake Marie (PP6) has shown early pace in spots as well. The pace should be honest but not suicidal, which plays into the hands of tactical stalkers given the prevailing speed bias on the dirt.
Key Contenders
Clever Race (PP5) is the deserved morning-line favorite at 5/2 and earns consensus top billing across multiple handicapping sources. She arrives with back-to-back wins at Delta Downs, showing the “fastest stalker” running style that is ideal on this surface. She is the only 4-year-old in the field, which means she carries top weight of 124 lbs., but her recent form is far superior to these rivals. Trainer Randy Degeyter Jr. has a 25 percent win rate at this meet, and the assignment of Jarred Journet provides a competent pilot. The cut-back from 6-1/2 furlongs to 5-1/2 furlongs is a minor concern, but her tactical speed should allow her to adapt.
One Line Ruler (PP1) draws the advantageous rail and is the second choice on the morning line at 7/2. She is a deeper closer type who ran fifth last out at Delta Downs, but the post draw gives her a significant edge if she can save ground along the rail. Trainer Eric Henry has two in this race (also Good N Sassy), and the rail post aligns with the inside bias. Jockey Emanuel Nieves has a 15 percent win rate from 41 mounts at the meet.
Custom Punch (PP4) rates third on the morning line at 4/1 and projects as the lone front-runner from the inside half of the field. She was a close second at Fair Grounds last out and has a career record of 3-5-6 from 14 starts with a 21 percent win rate. Ben Curtis is a strong rider choice with a 28 percent win rate at the meet.
Secondary Choices
Lake Marie (PP6) at 5/1 has strong career numbers (5 wins from 21 starts, 24% win rate) and trainer Yovani Munoz is running at a 50 percent clip this meet. She has tactical speed but draws outside, which works against the prevailing inside bias.
Where’s Aunt J (PP8) at 8/1 has been running well at Fair Grounds, finishing second two back and winning three starts ago at Louisiana Downs. She is a fast closer type who needs pace to set up, and the outside draw is problematic.
Longshots
Good N Sassy (PP7) at 8/1 is the fastest early-speed type in the field and may get brave on the lead, but she is coming off a string of poor finishes at Delta Downs, including an 8th-place finish last out. At her price, she is worth a token inclusion underneath in exotics.
Miss Kennedy (PP2) at 20/1 drops from route races on the dirt and has been losing to better, but she lacks recent sprint form and should be left out.
Betting Strategy
Clever Race (PP5) is a strong single in multi-race wagers if you are confident. For the exacta, box her with One Line Ruler (PP1) and Custom Punch (PP4). For the trifecta, use 5 with 1/4 with 1/4/6/8. The key angle here is to leverage the inside bias with One Line Ruler while respecting the class of Clever Race.
Selections
Win: Clever Race (PP5)
Place: One Line Ruler (PP1)
Show: Custom Punch (PP4)
Race 2 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $22,000
Post Time: 1:15 PM CST
Fillies and mares, 4 and up, claiming $15,000 (LA-bred $20,000). Eight runners entered. Several horses on the scratch watch including Tough Love Torres (MTO), Lil Chilly (MTO), Margoinabubblebath (Vet), and Iuka Miss (Stewards).
Pace Analysis
This field has moderate to brisk early pace projections. De Ans Eighty (PP2) figures to show early foot from the inside, and Margoinabubblebath (PP8) — if she runs — typically shows some tactical speed. Kentucky Cajun (PP1) is the inside speed draw and could use the rail to press forward. The 6-furlong distance gives closers a slightly better chance than the 5-1/2 furlong races, but the dirt bias still favors forward types.
Key Contenders
Margoinabubblebath (PP8) is the algorithmic top choice at 5/2 on the morning line and earns top billing from one consensus source. However, she is on the scratch watch with a veterinarian flag, so monitor her status closely. If she runs, she steps down from a $5,000 claiming race where she competed on January 22 and brings class-drop appeal.
De Ans Eighty (PP2) at 7/2 draws the inside and has shown consistent form. Her placement from handicapping sources as a solid place contender makes her a reliable exotics horse. Isaac Castillo in the irons provides a capable ride. She was formerly trained by David Terre and has recent Fair Grounds experience.
Miss Maximus (PP3) at 9/2 gets the services of Ben Curtis and rates as a logical contender, particularly if the pace sets up for a stalker. She is trained by Sturges Ducoing, and Curtis’s 28 percent win rate adds reliability.
Secondary Choices
Tough Love Torres (PP5) at 6/1 earned a top selection from one source but is flagged as main-track-only, meaning she was entered with turf intentions elsewhere and landed here. She may appreciate the surface switch if she runs. Jockey Jamison Mudd is aboard.
Sally’s Suprise (PP4) at 6/1 draws the class angle with Jose Ortiz in the saddle and Tom Amoss training. The Ortiz-Amoss combination always demands respect. She could sit a perfect stalking trip from the four hole.
Longshots
Kentucky Cajun (PP1) at 8/1 draws the rail and has Mitchell Murrill riding. She showed nothing last out at Fair Grounds but was formerly competitive at Louisiana tracks. At this price, she is worth a dart underneath.
Iuka Miss (PP6) at 12/1 is on the scratch watch (Stewards) and is coming from Oaklawn Park where she competed at a higher level. If she runs, the class drop could be significant.
Betting Strategy
This race has significant scratch-watch risk. Build wagers around De Ans Eighty (PP2) and Miss Maximus (PP3) as anchors. If Margoinabubblebath runs, she is the clear top choice. Sally’s Suprise (PP4) with the Ortiz-Amoss combination is a must-use in exotics. Exacta: box 2/3/8 (if 8 runs); Trifecta: 2/3/8 with 2/3/4/5/8 with all.
Selections
Win: Margoinabubblebath (PP8)
Place: De Ans Eighty (PP2)
Show: Sally’s Suprise (PP4)
Race 3 — Maiden Claiming, 1-1/16 Miles Turf, Purse $22,000
Post Time: 1:45 PM CST
Three-year-old fillies, maiden claiming $30,000. Eight runners entered. This is the start of the Jackpot Pick 6 sequence with a $73,206 carryover. Rail at 7 feet. Several horses on the scratch watch including Harpermarie (Vet), Improve Position (Vet), Pipinna (Vet), and Truly an Honor (Also-Eligible).
Pace Analysis
This maiden field on the turf at a route distance projects to have mild early pace. The stalker-friendly turf route bias at Fair Grounds makes tactical speed the preferred running style. Look for horses who can sit just off the pace and pounce in the lane. The 1-1/16 mile distance on the turf rewards horses with stamina and the ability to settle into a rhythm.
Key Contenders
Truly an Honor (PP6) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with Jose Ortiz named and trainer Joe Sharp — the returning meet leader — saddling. She is flagged as also-eligible, meaning she might not draw in if scratches do not open a spot. If she runs, the Ortiz-Sharp combination at Fair Grounds is lethal. Algorithmic models also rank her first.
Harpermarie (PP8) at 7/2 is another top selection across multiple sources. She is trained by Eddie Kenneally with Declan Cannon aboard. She is on the vet scratch watch, so her status must be confirmed. If she runs, the Kenneally barn at Fair Grounds is always competitive with turf maidens.
Cara Felce (PP7) at 5/1 is trained by Norm Casse with Harry Hernandez riding. The Casse operation brings elite bloodstock to these maiden claiming events and this filly has upside. She rates as a strong third choice.
Secondary Choices
Stress Test (PP3) at 5/1 is trained by Joe Sharp with Ben Curtis aboard. Sharp trains two in this field (also Truly an Honor), and Stress Test could be the “live” entry if Truly an Honor does not draw in. The stalker-friendly turf profile benefits her.
Unlikely Queen (PP4) at 6/1 gets Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. for trainer Bret Calhoun. This is a solid Louisiana-based combination that knows the turf course well.
She’s an Earner (PP5) at 6/1 is trained by Steven Asmussen with Isaac Castillo up. The Asmussen barn is always dangerous, even in maiden claimers.
Longshots
Pipinna (PP1) at 20/1 and Improve Position (PP2) at 20/1 are both on the vet scratch watch and lack recent competitive form. If they run, they are deep longshot plays for the bottom of superfectas only.
Betting Strategy
This is the start of the Jackpot Pick 6 with a $73,206 carryover. Given the scratch-watch uncertainty, use multiple horses here. If Truly an Honor and Harpermarie both run, they are the top two selections. Spread in the Pick 6 to include Cara Felce and Stress Test. Trifecta: 6/8 with 3/4/5/6/7/8 with all.
Selections
Win: Truly an Honor (PP6)
Place: Harpermarie (PP8)
Show: Cara Felce (PP7)
Race 4 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $20,000
Post Time: 2:15 PM CST
Louisiana-bred fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up. Claiming $20,000. Nine runners entered.
Pace Analysis
This field has manageable early pace. Factor of Time (PP2) and La Maxima (PP6) project as the primary speed sources, with Platinumus Maximus (PP7) and Riley’s Empire (PP1) capable of showing early foot as well. The pace should be honest at 6 furlongs, and the inside-speed bias gives an edge to runners drawn inside who show tactical speed.
Key Contenders
Factor of Time (PP2) is the algorithmic top choice at 7/2 morning line and earns consensus support across multiple sources. She draws inside, which aligns with the prevailing dirt bias, and jockey Marcelino Pedroza Jr. will have no trouble saving ground. Trainer Carrol Castille has this filly well-placed at the claiming level.
Jaja Ja Mar (PP5) at 5/1 earns a best-bet designation from one handicapping source. Trainer Alexis Claire sends out the 3-year-old with Axel Concepcion up. The lighter weight (114 lbs.) is a significant advantage against older rivals, and the claiming level should be within reach.
La Maxima (PP6) at 4/1 gets Jose Ortiz for trainer Alexis Claire. This is another 3-year-old filly with a weight break (117 lbs.), and the Ortiz connection is always a positive. She projects to show tactical speed and press the pace from a workable outside post.
Secondary Choices
Platinumus Maximus (PP7) at 5/1 gets Mitchell Murrill for trainer Carrol Castille. She rates as a consistent threat and could benefit from a stalking trip.
My Royal Princess (PP8) at 8/1 is the veteran in the field at 7 years old but has earnings of $208,000+ and experience at this level. She draws outside and would need pace to set up.
Longshots
Rileys Empire (PP1) at 8/1 draws the rail, which is valuable given the inside bias. She is a first-time starter for the claiming level and could be dangerous if she shows early speed from the inside. Worth a look in exotics.
El Star (PP4) at 8/1 is a 3-year-old with a weight advantage (114 lbs.) and Ben Curtis aboard. The Curtis factor adds intrigue at this price.
Betting Strategy
Factor of Time (PP2) is the top choice but hardly a standout. Use her on top with La Maxima (PP6) and Jaja Ja Mar (PP5) in exactas and trifectas. The three-year-olds with weight breaks are dangerous. Trifecta: 2/5/6 with 2/5/6/7 with all.
Selections
Win: Factor of Time (PP2)
Place: La Maxima (PP6)
Show: Jaja Ja Mar (PP5)
Race 5 — Claiming, 1 Mile Turf, Purse $24,000
Post Time: 2:45 PM CST
Fillies and mares, 4 and up. Claiming $20,000. Twelve runners entered. Rail at 7 feet. Several horses on the scratch watch including Deal’em and Weep (Off-Turf), Differently (Trainer), Jocasta (Off-Turf), and Im Singled Up (Vet).
Pace Analysis
In a 12-horse turf route, pace dynamics become complex. Rosie’s Angus (PP1) and Turf Rocket (PP2) project to show early foot, while Roar of Silence (PP3) and Miss River Rat (PP11) figure to stalk from mid-pack. The large field and turf route bias favoring stalkers make tactical speed the ideal running style. Deep closers face traffic challenges in a full field at one mile on the turf.
Key Contenders
Miss River Rat (PP11) is the strong morning-line favorite at 9/5 and earns a best-bet designation from one handicapping source and consensus support across the board. Trained by Chris Block with Jose Ortiz in the irons, she is the class of this field. Block trained the 2021 Fair Grounds Stakes winner Captivating Moon at this course, and the turf form of this barn is well documented. Ortiz’s ability to navigate the turf course and time his move is a critical asset. The wide post (11) is a concern in a full field, but Ortiz’s skill mitigates that.
Roar of Silence (PP3) at 4/1 draws inside and should sit a perfect stalking trip. Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez and jockey Axel Concepcion have been a productive pairing, and the inside post position aligns with the need to save ground on the turf.
Rosie’s Angus (PP1) at 6/1 draws the rail and could carve out an early lead. Trainer Samuel Breaux keeps this mare competitive, and the rail draw at 7 feet provides a ground-saving advantage.
Secondary Choices
Deal’em and Weep (PP4) at 6/1 is on the off-turf scratch watch and would only run if the race stays on grass. If she runs, she draws well at post 4 and has shown competitive turf form.
Turf Rocket (PP2) at 8/1 draws inside and should show early speed. Trainer Chris Hartman is capable, and Pedroza Jr. should use the inside bias effectively.
Tuck Check (PP8) at 8/1 gets Ben Curtis for trainer Lindsay Schultz. The Curtis connection is always worth monitoring.
Longshots
Im Singled Up (PP12) at 8/1 is on the vet scratch watch but has some appeal if she runs. Dark Dahlia (PP10) at 20/1 gets the Norm Casse barn but the price reflects limited recent turf form.
Betting Strategy
Miss River Rat (PP11) is the play in this race and should be used as a single in the Pick 6 if you are looking to minimize tickets. For exotics, key her over Roar of Silence (PP3), Rosie’s Angus (PP1), and Turf Rocket (PP2). Exacta: 11 with 1/2/3/4. Trifecta: 11 with 1/2/3/4 with 1/2/3/4/8.
Selections
Win: Miss River Rat (PP11)
Place: Roar of Silence (PP3)
Show: Rosie’s Angus (PP1)
Race 6 — Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $55,000
Post Time: 3:15 PM CST
Three-year-olds. Allowance or claiming $125,000. Seven runners entered. This is the featured race on the card.
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario here revolves around Knock It Off (PP2). He showed devastating front-end speed in his debut victory on January 17 and should control this race from the outset. Extract’s Arrow (PP1) and Election Night (PP4) could press from early positions, but the presence of Knock It Off as the prohibitive 3/5 favorite suggests most riders will concede the lead and hope for a pace meltdown that is unlikely to come. The inside-speed bias heavily favors PP2.
Key Contenders
Knock It Off (PP2) is the overwhelming 3/5 morning-line favorite and the clear consensus top pick across every handicapping source consulted. Trained by Steven Asmussen and ridden by Jose Ortiz, this is the most potent combination on the grounds. In his debut on January 17 at Fair Grounds, Knock It Off won impressively enough that the runner-up, Trouble Calling, subsequently returned to win by 6-1/4 lengths while earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 91. That franking of the form suggests Knock It Off has significant ability. He draws inside post 2, which aligns perfectly with the dominant inside-speed bias, and Ortiz knows this stretch as well as anyone. The only question is price — at 3/5, you are laying significant money to win.
Zun Day (PP3) at 4/1 is the most logical alternative, trained by Brad Cox with Pedroza Jr. aboard. Cox is among the elite trainers in America, and any runner from his barn in an AOC event commands respect. He draws post 3, right next to the favorite, and should be able to track Knock It Off throughout.
Falcon Cove (PP7) at 6/1 is trained by Brett Brinkman with Devin Magnon up. He drew outside but has enough talent to be the main threat if the favorite stumbles. Handicapping sources rank him third across the board.
Secondary Choices
Silver Talisman (PP5) at 8/1 is trained by Brendan Walsh with Ben Curtis aboard. Walsh is a top-tier trainer who ships nationally, and any runner at 8/1 from this barn deserves exotics inclusion.
Extract’s Arrow (PP1) at 12/1 draws the rail and was recently scratched from the Ozark Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The class drop from a stakes race to this AOC level could be significant. However, he also scratched from a starter optional on February 7 by Stewards, raising concern about form.
Longshots
Election Night (PP4) at 12/1 gets Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. for trainer Shelly Radosevich. He is coming from the outside and lacks the speed figures of the top horses. At this price, he is a fringe exotics play.
Toogoodtosell (PP6) at 15/1 rounds out the field and is an unlikely contender against this group.
Betting Strategy
This is a “beat the favorite” race only if you are willing to go against a dominant horse. The smart play is to use Knock It Off as a single in multi-race sequences like the Pick 6 and focus on beating him only in the vertical exotics (exacta/trifecta). If you must beat him, Zun Day (PP3) and Extract’s Arrow (PP1) offer the best value. Exacta: 2 with 1/3/5/7. Trifecta: 2 with 1/3/5/7 with 1/3/4/5/7.
Selections
Win: Knock It Off (PP2)
Place: Zun Day (PP3)
Show: Falcon Cove (PP7)
Race 7 — Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile Turf, Purse $55,000
Post Time: 3:45 PM CST
Louisiana-bred fillies and mares, 4 and up. AOC or claiming $12,500. Thirteen runners entered. Rail at 7 feet.
Pace Analysis
A full field of 13 on the turf at one mile sets up a dynamic pace scenario. Desert Glow (PP1) and Run Bambi Run (PP3) project to show early foot, while the stalker-dominant turf bias suggests mid-pack runners who can pounce in the stretch hold the edge. The large field means traffic trouble is inevitable for horses drawn wide, and ground-saving trips will be at a premium.
Key Contenders
Desert Glow (PP1) at 4/1 earns the top algorithmic ranking and a top pick from one handicapping source. She draws the rail, which is valuable in a 13-horse turf route, and trainer Eduardo Rodriguez has Mitchell Murrill in the saddle. She was on the also-eligible list for a January 9 race and has been freshened up for this spot.
Moonie Pie (PP6) at 5/1 earns top-pick honors from one handicapping source. Trained by Sam David Jr. with Sofia Vives aboard, this 4-year-old filly is stepping up to the AOC level. The turf stalker bias suits her running style.
Snazzy Gal (PP12) at 9/2 is the second-ranked horse in algorithmic models despite drawing wide in post 12. Trained by Jeff Delhomme with Pedroza Jr. up, she brings competitive form but must navigate from the outside.
Secondary Choices
Sue’s Little Zing (PP13) at 6/1 is trained by Joe Sharp with Emanuel Nieves riding. Sharp is the returning meet-leading trainer, and any runner from his barn in an AOC turf event is worth respect despite the widest draw.
Lady Star (PP4) at 6/1 gets Jose Ortiz for trainer Shane Wilson. She was a vet scratch on January 9 and returns with a freshening. Ortiz’s presence elevates any horse, and post 4 is a workable draw.
Clearly Creeps (PP2) at 8/1 draws inside with Jamison Mudd up for trainer Chris Hartman. She benefits from the inside draw and Hartman’s competence with turf runners.
Longshots
Precious Money (PP8) at 12/1 gets Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. for trainer Gary Husak. She was scratched from a stakes race at Delta Downs on February 7 and drops into this level. The class relief could be significant at a double-digit price.
Molto Vino (PP7) at 12/1 brings Hunter Rea for trainer Andy Rogers. She is a deep longshot but could benefit from a pace meltdown.
Betting Strategy
This is a wide-open affair and a prime spot to spread in exotics and multi-race wagers. In the Pick 6, use at least 4-5 horses. Desert Glow (PP1), Moonie Pie (PP6), Lady Star (PP4), and Sue’s Little Zing (PP13) form the core. Add Snazzy Gal (PP12) and Clearly Creeps (PP2) for deeper coverage. Trifecta: 1/6 with 1/2/4/6/12/13 with all.
Selections
Win: Desert Glow (PP1)
Place: Moonie Pie (PP6)
Show: Lady Star (PP4)
Race 8 — Maiden Claiming, 5-1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $14,000
Post Time: 4:15 PM CST
Louisiana-bred maidens, 3 and up, claiming $10,000. Eleven runners entered.
Pace Analysis
This field features a glut of “fast stalker” types, which should create an honest pace. Good N Sassy-type speed is absent from this group, meaning the early pace is unlikely to be suicidal. Deal Me Trips (PP1) and Jayjayjay (PP2) project to be forwardly placed from inside draws, while Severus Squall (PP9) and Ocean Voyager (PP3) should stalk from mid-pack. The inside-speed dirt bias gives a clear edge to posts 1-3.
Key Contenders
Deal Me Trips (PP1) is the consensus top pick at 5/2 morning line, earning top algorithmic rankings and a pick from multiple sources. He draws the rail, which is the prime real estate given the inside-speed bias, and gets Ben Curtis, the leading percentage rider at the meet (28% win rate). Trained by Alexis Claire, who is hitting at 14 percent, this gelding has been second and third in his last two Fair Grounds starts and is ready to graduate. The class drop from previous maiden events adds appeal.
Jayjayjay (PP2) at 9/2 draws post 2, right next to the rail, and has shown consistent form with a third and fourth in his last two starts. Jareth Loveberry has a strong 20 percent win rate from 40 mounts, and trainer Justin Jeansonne has this gelding well-placed.
Severus Squall (PP9) at 6/1 earns top honors from one handicapping source despite drawing outside in post 9. He has an extraordinary record of 0-3-6 from 8 starts — meaning he has hit the board 75 percent of the time without winning. Pedroza Jr. will try to break through the maiden barrier, but the wide draw works against him given the inside bias.
Secondary Choices
Ocean Voyager (PP3) at 6/1 draws inside and has a similar profile to Deal Me Trips, with a second and third in his last two starts. Emanuel Nieves rides for trainer John Ney, who has an impressive 70 percent in-the-money rate at the meet.
Mr. Brad’s Cowboy (PP7) at 6/1 is the fastest closer type in the field and brings class from competitive Delta Downs races. Sofia Vives (23% win rate) rides for Jorge Lara. He needs pace to set up but could fire a big late rally.
Longshots
Hustlin’ Man (PP5) at 8/1 is a first-time starter for trainer Joe Duhon, who is hitting at a remarkable 46 percent win rate this meet. Duhon’s strike rate alone makes this horse worth including. The low weight of 112 lbs. is a significant edge. Jamison Mudd rides.
Closing Agent (PP10) at 8/1 has been consistently fourth at Fair Grounds in three straight starts. He is knocking at the door but draws outside and may find traffic.
Betting Strategy
Deal Me Trips (PP1) is the top play with the rail draw and Curtis aboard. Key him in exactas with Jayjayjay (PP2) and Severus Squall (PP9). For trifectas, use 1 with 2/3/9 with 2/3/5/7/9/10. The Hustlin’ Man (PP5) first-time starter angle with Duhon’s 46 percent win rate makes him a must-include underneath in exotics.
Selections
Win: Deal Me Trips (PP1)
Place: Jayjayjay (PP2)
Show: Severus Squall (PP9)
Jockey Notes and Insights
Jose L. Ortiz is the dominant jockey at the Fair Grounds meet, returning as the defending champion rider after winning 98 races last season — the most by any jockey since Florent Geroux tallied 98 in 2016-2017. He led all North American jockeys in wins during 2025 with 351. Ortiz has four mounts today: Sally’s Suprise (R2 PP4), Truly an Honor (R3 PP6), La Maxima (R4 PP6), Miss River Rat (R5 PP11), Knock It Off (R6 PP2), and Lady Star (R7 PP4). His most likely winners are Knock It Off in Race 6 and Miss River Rat in Race 5. When Ortiz rides for Asmussen, the combination commands a significant win percentage.
Ben Curtis has been riding at a 28 percent win rate at the meet, making him the highest percentage rider in the colony based on available data. He has five mounts today across Races 1, 2, 3, 4, and 8, with his best chance coming in Race 8 aboard Deal Me Trips (PP1). Curtis’s ability to use inside draws is a key asset given the track bias.
Mitchell Murrill is a steady presence at the meet with a 20 percent win rate from 74 mounts. He rides Lake Marie (R1 PP6), Kentucky Cajun (R2 PP1), and Desert Glow (R7 PP1). The Desert Glow mount in Race 7 looks like his best opportunity.
Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. is a national-caliber rider making starts at Fair Grounds. He rides Unlikely Queen (R3 PP4), Election Night (R6 PP4), and Precious Money (R7 PP8). He brings a 40 percent win rate from limited Saratoga mounts, and his presence elevates any horse.
Isaac Castillo has been hitting at 17 percent from 24 mounts with a strong 42 percent in-the-money rate. He rides Where’s Aunt J (R1 PP8), De Ans Eighty (R2 PP2), She’s an Earner (R3 PP5), Extract’s Arrow (R6 PP1), and Azteca Storm (R8 PP11).
Marcelino Pedroza Jr. has the heaviest book on the card with mounts in every race. His 10 percent win rate from 105 mounts is modest, but his volume means he will occasionally find a winner. His best chances today are Zun Day (R6 PP3) and Snazzy Gal (R7 PP12).
Trainer Notes and Insights
Steven Asmussen saddles Knock It Off in Race 6 and She’s an Earner in Race 3. Asmussen is among the all-time winningest trainers in North American racing and recently won the Fair Grounds Stakes on February 13 with Lagynos. His 3-year-old program is elite, and Knock It Off represents a horse with significant upside based on the franking of his debut form.
Joe Sharp is the returning meet-leading trainer from last season’s championship campaign. He has two runners in Race 3 (Truly an Honor at PP6 and Stress Test at PP3) and Sue’s Little Zing in Race 7 (PP13). Sharp’s turf prowess is well-documented at Fair Grounds.
Brad Cox, who trains Zun Day (R6 PP3), is a multiple Eclipse Award-winning trainer and the primary threat to Asmussen in Race 6. Any time Cox ships a horse to a specific spot, it warrants attention.
Tom Amoss trains Sally’s Suprise (R2 PP4) and has been a fixture at Fair Grounds for decades. The Amoss-Ortiz pairing in Race 2 is a combination to watch.
Norm Casse sends out Cara Felce (R3 PP7) and Dark Dahlia (R5 PP10). The Casse operation has national reach and places horses well on the turf.
Eddie Kenneally trains Harpermarie (R3 PP8) and has historically been strong with turf maidens at Fair Grounds.
Chris Block trains Miss River Rat (R5 PP11) and has a strong record on the Fair Grounds turf course dating back to his Captivating Moon victories.
Alexis Claire trains Deal Me Trips (R8 PP1) and Jaja Ja Mar (R4 PP5), with a 14 percent win rate and 71 percent in-the-money rate at the meet. Her runners consistently hit the board.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The headline wagering opportunity today is the Jackpot Pick 6, which begins in Race 3 and carries a $73,206 carryover. The six-race sequence covers Races 3 through 8, including three turf races and three dirt races. Here is how to approach it:
Race 3 (Turf Maiden Claiming): Spread. Use Truly an Honor (PP6), Harpermarie (PP8), Cara Felce (PP7), and Stress Test (PP3). This is a race with scratch-watch volatility, so wider coverage is warranted.
Race 4 (Dirt Claiming): Use Factor of Time (PP2), La Maxima (PP6), and Jaja Ja Mar (PP5). Three horses should cover this field. Add Platinumus Maximus (PP7) if budget allows.
Race 5 (Turf Claiming): Miss River Rat (PP11) is a strong single. She is the clear class of the field with Ortiz aboard. If you want a backup, add Roar of Silence (PP3).
Race 6 (Dirt AOC): Knock It Off (PP2) is the single. At 3/5, he is too dominant to beat in a horizontal wager. Save money here to spread elsewhere.
Race 7 (Turf AOC): This is the spreader race. Use Desert Glow (PP1), Moonie Pie (PP6), Lady Star (PP4), Sue’s Little Zing (PP13), and Snazzy Gal (PP12). Five horses minimum.
Race 8 (Dirt Maiden Claiming): Deal Me Trips (PP1) is the top choice, but add Jayjayjay (PP2) and Severus Squall (PP9) for safety.
A sample 50-cent Jackpot Pick 6 ticket would be: 3/6/7/8 with 2/5/6 with 11 with 2 with 1/4/6/12/13 with 1/2/9 = 4 x 3 x 1 x 1 x 5 x 3 = 180 combinations = $90.
The best single-race value plays on the card:
Race 1: Clever Race (PP5) at 5/2 is a solid favorite worth a Win bet. Her form at Delta Downs translates well here.
Race 5: Miss River Rat (PP11) at 9/5 is the Best Bet of the day. The combination of Ortiz, Block, and class superiority makes her a strong Win play.
Race 6: Knock It Off (PP2) at 3/5 is unplayable as a Win bet due to the short price, but keying him on top of exactas with Zun Day (PP3), Falcon Cove (PP7), and Silver Talisman (PP5) offers value.
Race 8: Deal Me Trips (PP1) at 5/2 draws the rail with the meet’s hottest percentage rider and is a strong Win candidate.
For a Pick 4 beginning in Race 5: 11 with 2 with 1/4/6/12/13 with 1/2/9 = 1 x 1 x 5 x 3 = 15 combinations = $15 for a $1 ticket or $7.50 for 50 cents. This is an efficient way to attack the late card.
Overall, today’s card offers a clear hierarchy in Races 5 and 6, which allows for cost savings in multi-race wagers, while Races 3 and 7 provide the spreader opportunities to generate value.
