Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
The program features ten competitive races, highlighted by the one hundred seventy five thousand dollar Cincinnati Trophy Stakes for three year old fillies in race nine. Chilly conditions typical for Northern Kentucky in late February are expected, with temperatures in the upper thirties to low forties. The Tapeta synthetic surface handles winter weather exceptionally well and is expected to play fast and firm.
The one mile synthetic layout generally plays fair, though tactical speed horses drawn in middle to outside posts often have a statistical advantage in sprint routes. In two turn routes, saving ground into the first turn from inner posts is critical.
Race 1
A lively tempo is expected with Dew and Firestorm Dancer likely to contest the lead. Dew (4) looks formidable dropping into maiden claiming ranks. Keen Talent (3) adds blinkers and drops in class. Or Magique (5) should sit a comfortable stalking trip, while Long Acting (7) should be rolling late. Ryu Mo (10) is an improving longshot who could surprise if the pace is blistering.
Race 2
This route lacks a standout front runner, and Ceebee (1) may find herself on an easy lead. Purrfect Girl (2) is a consistent recent performer at this level, and I Made It (6) should thrive with the slight cutback in distance. Blossoming (4) has back class that may awaken here. Chica Chula (8) is an older mare capable of a massive late run at high odds.
Race 3
Several entries want the lead, promising an honest pace. Cavatelli (3) has tactical speed and an inside draw that provides a distinct advantage. Need a Bit of Luck (1) is positioned for a pocket trip. Stormy Cut (9) possesses the late kick to benefit if the leaders duel, and B. Swifty (4) is a steady performer. Joia Rara (8) has a turn of foot that could translate well to Tapeta.
Race 4
This five furlong dash will be a sprint from the bell. Vamos Viejo (2) possesses raw speed that is superior to this group. Stay Frosty (1) will likely keep him honest and remains a logical threat. McVicker (5) drops in class and should appreciate the softer competition. Outkissed (3) is a seasoned veteran, and English Tide (7) is a longshot capable of securing a minor share.
Race 5
Time Leap (5) appears to be the primary speed in this extended sprint and has demonstrated excellent stamina. Funs Lil Sis (8) shows improving speed figures and a favorable outside draw. Miss Susan B (1) can use her rail position to secure a ground saving trip, while Mustang Lady (7) will appreciate the extra half furlong. Call Me Angel (6) is a lightly raced longshot who could upset with slight improvement.
Race 6
Pace should be moderate to slow. Personal Creed (6) has strong recent turf and synthetic form and a significant class edge. Dirbas (2) will likely secure the early lead. Kamaina Cruiser (1) has the rail advantage and tactical speed to ensure a dream trip. Jus Too Fly (7) is a consistent check earner. Frozen Four (3) puts blinkers back on, which might sharpen his early speed.
Race 7
Sweet Surrender (3) and Indict (7) are both capable of showing early initiative in this one mile maiden special weight. Saravi (8) has a high priced pedigree and strong recent workouts. Marble Arch (6) is an intriguing first time starter from a top barn. Cove Spring (2) gets a favorable inner draw, and Ability (4) adds Lasix for the first time.
Race 8
The ten furlong distance will likely result in an incredibly slow early tempo. Siesta Key (9) has tactical ability that ensures he will not be compromised by a slow pace. Tickled Quist (1) is drawn perfectly to save ground over the marathon distance. Time for Trouble (11) is a gritty veteran who thrives at this distance. Lac Macaza (2) has proven stamina, and Factor Analysis (13) has the class to be competitive if he can overcome a wide draw.
Race 9
The Cincinnati Trophy Stakes should feature a strong pace. Resplendence (1) is a heavy favorite with an inside draw and speed figures that tower over the field. Dame Laura (8) should sit a perfect stalking trip. Lovely Grey (2) will benefit from a ground saving journey, while Wonzee Weather (9) must cross over from a wide draw. Rip Current (4) is quietly improving and could secure a minor placing.
Race 10
The nightcap features a chaotic pace with twelve maidens. Love Loving (11) appears superior on paper and is the class of the field dropping into claiming company. Watercolour (10) brings solid synthetic form into the race. Bugs Malone (1) can save ground from the rail, and Gran Judgement (2) carries a very light weight. Union Empress (6) has been working steadily and might show life at long odds.
