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Fair Grounds opens its Sunday, December 21, 2025 card with first post at 12:45 PM CST for an eight-race program featuring a mix of claiming races, maiden events, and a competitive allowance turf sprint. The card showcases Louisiana-bred races alongside open company competitions, presenting opportunities across dirt and turf surfaces at the historic New Orleans oval.

Saturday’s December 20 card featured the Gun Runner Stakes, kicking off the Road to the Kentucky Derby series at Fair Grounds. Sunday’s action shifts to more bread-and-butter racing with competitive claiming fields and maiden events that will set the stage for future stakes hopefuls during the winter meet.​

The scratch list includes several notable withdrawals. She’s Extra is scratched as also-eligible from the opener. Race 3 loses Love Getaway, Custom Value, and Lil Bit Forgotten to veterinarian scratches and also-eligible status, while Bright Note was also scratched. Race 6 sees Athletic Like scratched for veterinarian reasons, and Race 8 loses both Handsome Harold and Samurai’s Grandson to veterinarian scratches.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Sunday’s forecast calls for passing showers with breaks of sun late, creating potentially dynamic track conditions throughout the afternoon. Temperatures will reach a high of 76°F with overnight lows around 64°F. The precipitation chance sits at 56 percent with approximately 0.10 inches of rain expected. Morning line odds and handicapping should account for the possibility of a wet track by later races if showers materialize during the card.​

As of Saturday, December 20, the main dirt track was listed as fast and the turf course as firm. However, bettors should monitor late scratches and track condition announcements, particularly for the lone turf race on the card. Any rainfall could transform the dirt surface to sloppy or muddy conditions, significantly altering running styles and favoring speed horses who can avoid kickback.​

The mild temperatures and humidity typical of New Orleans in December create ideal racing conditions when precipitation holds off. The forecast suggests the early races will run under mostly cloudy skies before potential showers arrive, meaning dirt sprint races may see the most consistent surface while later races could face changing conditions.​

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Fair Grounds exhibits pronounced biases that handicappers ignore at their peril. Statistical analysis from the current meet and recent years reveals clear patterns that separate winning tickets from losing ones.

In dirt sprints at six furlongs, inside posts 1-3 dominate with a 27 percent win rate for inside speed horses. The short run to the first turn creates a significant disadvantage for outside posts, as horses struggle to secure early position before the clubhouse bend. Speed horses drawing inside have won 80 of 299 races at a remarkable 27 percent clip, while stalkers positioned one to four lengths off the pace won 37 percent of dirt sprints. Closers face steep odds, winning only 14 percent of six-furlong events.​

The inside post advantage extends to dirt routes, where posts 1-3 captured 54 percent of route wins during the 2024-2025 meet. Middle posts 4-6 won 35 percent, while outside posts accounted for just 11 percent in a sample of 213 dirt routes. Unlike sprints, dirt routes show more balance between running styles, with speed winning 38 percent, stalkers 34 percent, and closers a respectable 28 percent.​

Fair Grounds turf routes tell a different story. Closers thrive on the grass, winning 40 percent of turf routes compared to 38 percent for stalkers and just 22 percent for speed horses. The long Fair Grounds stretch—one of the longest in North America—creates ideal conditions for horses with a late kick. Post position matters less on turf routes, with distribution more balanced across the field.​

For Sunday’s lone turf race in the seventh, the 5.5-furlong turf sprint distance produces more balanced results than routes. Over the 2020s decade, stalkers have dominated turf sprints at 40.5 percent, with speed at 33 percent and closers at 22 percent. The shorter distance favors tactical speed over pure closing ability.​

Handicappers should weight these biases heavily when constructing wagers. A speed horse in post 1 or 2 in a dirt sprint carries significantly more value than the same horse breaking from post 8. Conversely, backing front-runners in turf routes often leads to disappointment as closers sweep past in the stretch.

Race 1 – Claiming Fillies and Mares

Post Time: 12:45 PM CST

6 Furlongs Dirt | Purse $14,000 | Claiming $5,000

Pace Analysis

This six-horse claiming sprint sets up as a moderate early pace scenario with Gold Plus and Sister Saint both showing natural early speed. Gold Plus exhibits a fast leader running style and should break alertly from the rail under Paco Lopez. Sister Saint provides the main early pressure as a fast stalker who can press or contest the lead.​

The pace dynamics favor horses positioned within striking distance by the second call. Foxy Zorra typically runs mid-pack before making a move, while Thisoneisforyou shows stalker tendencies. Spicy Italian comes from well back as the lone deep closer, a disadvantageous style given Fair Grounds’ speed bias in six-furlong dirt races.​

With only six runners and two legitimate speed horses, the pace should be honest but not suicidal. Gold Plus will attempt to dictate terms from the rail while Sister Saint applies pressure from the outside. The relatively small field reduces pace pressure compared to larger claiming events, potentially allowing the speed to last longer than usual.​

Key Contenders

Gold Plus commands favoritism at 5/2 morning line odds for trainer Cesar Govea with Paco Lopez aboard. The five-year-old mare shows a fast leader running style and draws the crucial rail post position. Her recent form includes a second-place finish at Fair Grounds in a similar spot, suggesting she’s racing in appropriate company. Lopez ranks among Fair Grounds’ elite riders with a 24 percent win rate and 61 percent in-the-money percentage. The combination of inside speed with an aggressive, talented jockey creates a formidable combination in this spot.​

The mare’s consistency stands out with 17 career starts producing two wins, six seconds, and nine thirds for a 53 percent in-the-money rate. While not a prolific winner, she shows up race after race and should appreciate the class drop to the $5,000 level. The rail post allows Lopez to dictate the pace and force others to use energy to get past.​

Foxy Zorra enters at 3/1 for trainer Coty W. Rosin with Isaac Castillo riding. This four-year-old filly shows more tactical speed than Gold Plus, running her best races when positioned mid-pack before rallying. Recent workouts at Fair Grounds indicate she’s training forwardly for this engagement. Rosin boasts an impressive 18 percent win rate and 45 percent in-the-money percentage at the current meet.​

The filly’s running style could prove advantageous if Gold Plus and Sister Saint engage in a speed duel. By sitting just off the pace, Foxy Zorra can conserve energy while staying close enough to strike in the stretch. Her recent form shows competitive efforts against similar, suggesting she fits well with these.​

Secondary Choices

Sister Saint offers value at 9/2 for trainer Bobby Burkes with Oriel Chavez aboard. This five-year-old mare combines fast stalker tendencies with tactical speed, allowing her to press the pace or sit just off the leaders. While Chavez shows limited starts at the current meet, the trainer-jockey combination could surprise at a square price.​

Thisoneisforyou merits consideration at 7/2 for trainer Carrol Castille with Marcelino Pedroza Jr. in the irons. Pedroza ranks among Fair Grounds’ most reliable riders with a 14 percent win rate and 47 percent in-the-money percentage. The five-year-old mare shows a mid-pack stalker style that fits well in moderately paced sprints. Her record of one win from 13 starts with 54 percent in-the-money suggests she consistently hits the board without winning often.​

Betting Strategy

The race sets up as a Gold Plus versus Foxy Zorra proposition with Sister Saint and Thisoneisforyou as value alternatives. The inside speed bias at Fair Grounds favors Gold Plus, but the 5/2 morning line offers limited value given the small field. Foxy Zorra presents the best win value at 3/1, offering a superior risk-reward profile.

For exacta players, box Gold Plus and Foxy Zorra while including Sister Saint and Thisoneisforyou in trifecta combinations. The 1-3-2-5 combination covers the top four choices while respecting the likely finishing order based on running styles and post positions.

Consider playing against Spicy Italian, whose deep closing style faces steep odds in Fair Grounds six-furlong sprints. The statistics clearly demonstrate closers win only 14 percent of dirt sprints, making the 9/2 morning line on this Wayne Catalano trainee unappealing despite the barn’s overall quality.​

Selections

Win: Foxy Zorra

Place: Gold Plus

Show: Sister Saint

Race 2 – Louisiana-Bred Claiming

Post Time: 1:15 PM CST

6 Furlongs Dirt | Purse $14,000 | Claiming $5,000

Pace Analysis

This ten-horse Louisiana-bred claiming sprint presents a more complex pace scenario than the opener. Multiple horses show early speed tendencies, suggesting a contested pace through the opening furlongs. Pasketee and Half Way There both exhibit fast stalker and lead styles respectively, setting up potential early pressure.​

The large field creates more pace uncertainty compared to the six-horse opener. With ten runners, traffic issues and position battles become significant factors. Horses breaking poorly or caught wide face difficult challenges in catching the leaders given Fair Grounds’ speed bias. The pace should be honest to quick, potentially setting up a stalking/pressing type rather than pure speed or closers.​

Sir Mack and Cash Holiday add to the early pace scenario, both showing tendencies to be forwardly placed. The presence of four horses likely to be within three lengths of the lead by the first call ensures genuine early fractions. This pace pressure should benefit horses positioned fourth through sixth who can avoid the early scramble while staying within striking distance.​

Key Contenders

Pasketee takes favoritism at 5/2 morning line odds for trainer Sam B. David Jr. with Marcelino Pedroza Jr. riding. The four-year-old gelding shows a fastest stalker running style and has compiled impressive recent form at Fair Grounds with three consecutive top-three finishes including a third, fifth, and second in his last three starts, all at this six-furlong distance.​

The gelding’s 20 percent career win rate and 80 percent in-the-money rate from just five starts demonstrate remarkable consistency. His five career starts produced one win, two seconds, and four thirds, indicating he regularly competes for the top spot. Pedroza’s 14 percent win rate and 47 percent in-the-money percentage provide strong jockey support. The combination of improving form, proven ability at the distance, and a top Fair Grounds rider makes Pasketee the horse to beat.​

Half Way There enters at 3/1 for trainer Joseph M. Foster with Mitchell Murrill aboard. This three-year-old gelding shows a fast leads running style and carries just 119 pounds due to his lighter experience. From five career starts, he’s won once with two seconds for a 20 percent win rate and 40 percent in-the-money rate.​

The gelding’s recent form is particularly encouraging, with a second-place finish at Fair Grounds followed by strong efforts. Murrill brings solid credentials with a 17 percent win rate and 47 percent in-the-money percentage at the current meet. The three-year-old receives a three-pound weight concession from older rivals, giving him 119 pounds compared to 121 for most competitors. This weight advantage could prove decisive in a competitive claiming sprint.​

Secondary Choices

Sir Mack offers value at 9/2 for trainer Denise Schmidt with Erica M. Murray aboard. The three-year-old gelding shows a fast stalker style and carries 119 pounds due to his age concession. Recent form includes a fourth-place finish at Fair Grounds and a win at Louisiana Downs, demonstrating his ability to compete at this level. The 17 percent career win rate suggests he’s capable of winning but inconsistent.​

Righteous Freedom at 8/1 represents a live longshot for trainer Dane Noel with Jamison Mudd riding. The five-year-old gelding shows a fastest closer style and carries 116 pounds, the lowest weight in the field. His 5 percent career win rate and 26 percent in-the-money rate indicate he rarely wins but occasionally hits the board. Recent form shows a second and tenth in his last two starts. The lighter weight and closing style could prove advantageous if the pace melts down.​

Betting Strategy

The race pits Pasketee’s consistency and form against Half Way There’s early speed and weight advantage. Pasketee represents the safest play given his demonstrated ability to run well at Fair Grounds, but Half Way There offers superior value at 3/1 if he can secure an uncontested lead.

For exotic wagers, structure exacta boxes using Pasketee, Half Way There, and Sir Mack as the primary contenders. Include Righteous Freedom and Catchin Drama in trifecta and superfecta combinations as value closers who could benefit from a contested pace. The 5-6-1 exacta combination respects the morning line favorites while accounting for the speed bias.

Consider singling Pasketee in multi-race wagers. His consistency and proven Fair Grounds form make him the most reliable horse in an unpredictable claiming field. While the 5/2 morning line doesn’t offer tremendous value, his 80 percent in-the-money rate justifies using him as a single in pick-3 and pick-4 wagers starting with this race.

Selections

Win: Pasketee

Place: Half Way There

Show: Sir Mack

Race 3 – Louisiana-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Post Time: 1:45 PM CST

5.5 Furlongs Turf | Purse $54,000 | 2-Year-Old Fillies

Pace Analysis

This Louisiana-bred turf sprint for juvenile fillies underwent significant field changes with Love Getaway, Custom Value, Lil Bit Forgotten, and Bright Note all scratched, reducing the field from nine to five runners. The smaller field creates uncertainty around pace dynamics, as each scratch alters the race shape considerably.​

Based on the remaining runners, the pace should be moderate with several first-time starters whose running styles remain unknown. Geaux Crazy and Paradise Ridge represent debut runners whose early speed capabilities are uncertain without race experience. The 5.5-furlong turf distance favors horses with tactical speed who can position themselves close to the pace without expending excessive early energy.​

Fair Grounds turf sprints show more balance between running styles than routes, with stalkers winning 40.5 percent historically. The reduced field size benefits horses who break cleanly and establish good position early, as traffic issues become less problematic with only five runners. Expect a moderate pace with several fillies vying for favorable position heading into the turn.​

Key Contenders

Given the extensive scratches, Geaux Crazy emerges as a major contender despite limited public information. The Brian Hernandez Jr. mount represents trainer Alan Klanfer making a debut start. Hernandez ranks among the nation’s elite riders and his presence on this filly suggests connections have confidence in her abilities. First-time starters with quality jockeys often outperform expectations, particularly in maiden special weight company.​

Paradise Ridge at 5/1 morning line offers appeal as a filly who has shown promise in her limited exposure. The Sofia Vives mount for trainer Corale A. Richards showed improvement in her debut effort. While specific recent form details are limited, the connections suggest this filly has ability. Vives brings an 18 percent win rate and 38 percent in-the-money percentage to the assignment.​

Secondary Choices

Bistineau Beauty represents another logical contender with James Graham aboard for trainer Eric T. Scherer. Graham brings name recognition and quality to the ride, suggesting this filly merits respect despite maiden status. The combination of a quality jockey with a first-timer or lightly raced filly often produces value in maiden special weight turf events.​

Mo Simple offers value as a filly with race experience for trainer Joe O. Duhon with Isaac Castillo riding. Three career starts without a win indicate she hasn’t found her best yet, but the class drop to Louisiana-bred company and switch to turf could unlock improvement. Castillo’s aggressive riding style suits closers in turf sprints.​

Betting Strategy

The extensive scratches create a wide-open betting race with value throughout the field. Rather than establishing a strong opinion with limited information, spread action across multiple horses in exotic wagers. The small field allows bettors to use all five runners in trifecta and superfecta combinations at reasonable cost.

Focus on jockey quality when handicapping first-time starters. Hernandez on Geaux Crazy represents the strongest jockey play, followed by Graham on Bistineau Beauty. These elite riders often receive the best mounts from their connections, providing valuable handicapping insights when past performance information is limited.

Consider sitting out the win bet or making small wagers on multiple horses at value prices. The uncertainty created by first-time starters and extensive scratches makes this race better suited for exotic wagering where multiple horses can be included at reasonable cost.

Selections

Win: Geaux Crazy

Place: Paradise Ridge

Show: Bistineau Beauty

Race 4 – Maiden Claiming

Post Time: 2:15 PM CST

6 Furlongs Dirt | Purse $22,000 | Claiming $30,000

Pace Analysis

This eight-horse maiden claiming sprint presents a race where several horses have shown competitiveness without breaking their maiden. The pace should be moderate to honest as several runners have demonstrated ability to be forwardly placed. Faith’s Spirit and Spielman both show tendencies toward stalking the pace rather than contesting the early lead.​

The maiden claiming level often produces erratic pace scenarios as inexperienced horses figure out their preferred running styles. However, several runners in this field have multiple starts and should demonstrate more professionalism than pure maidens. Expect two or three horses to establish the early pace with stalkers positioned within three lengths.​

Fair Grounds’ six-furlong dirt bias favoring inside speed applies equally to maiden claiming races as higher-level events. Horses breaking cleanly from inside posts with early speed carry significant advantages. The pace should set up fairly for stalkers who can save ground and remain within striking distance of the leaders.​

Key Contenders

Spielman commands favoritism at 3/1 morning line odds for Hall of Fame trainer J. Keith Desormeaux with James Graham aboard. The five-year-old gelding has accumulated extensive experience with 13 career starts producing zero wins but four seconds and seven thirds for a 54 percent in-the-money rate. His consistency in maiden special weight company suggests he fits well dropping to maiden claiming.​

Recent form shows a fourth at Fair Grounds in turf sprint followed by a fifth in a dirt route and third in a dirt sprint. The return to six furlongs on dirt represents his optimal conditions. Graham’s 10 percent win rate at the current meet understates his overall quality as one of racing’s top riders. Desormeaux’s patient approach with this gelding finally pays off with the class drop.​

Faith’s Spirit enters at 7/2 for Steven Asmussen with Isaac Castillo riding. The four-year-old gelding ships in from Tampa Bay Downs where he finished second in his most recent start. That runner-up effort came in tougher company than this maiden claiming spot. Asmussen’s dominance at Fair Grounds combined with Castillo’s aggressive style creates a dangerous combination.​

The gelding’s form shows improvement with recent efforts including seconds and thirds. Four career starts with one second and two thirds indicate he’s knocking on the door for his maiden victory. The $30,000 claiming tag represents a drop in class from his previous competition. Asmussen excels at placing horses correctly to break their maiden.​

Secondary Choices

Wizard Of Yester offers value at 5/1 for trainer Joe Sharp with Jose Ortiz aboard. This three-year-old gelding shows a fast stalker running style and has compiled two seconds from four starts for a 50 percent in-the-money rate. Recent form includes an eighth and ninth in his last two starts, but those efforts came at Churchill Downs in tougher spots.​

Ortiz’s presence is significant, as the elite rider currently dominates Fair Grounds with a 27 percent win rate and 56 percent in-the-money percentage. Sharp’s hot start to the meet combined with Ortiz’s form suggests connections have confidence in this gelding’s chances. The drop to maiden claiming represents a realistic class level for a horse showing consistent placed efforts.​

Somekinda Mischief merits consideration at 4/1 for trainer Steven B. Flint with Ben Curtis riding. The three-year-old gelding ships from Canada where he’s compiled a record of zero wins from 12 starts with one second and three thirds. Curtis brings quality with a 20 percent win rate and 51 percent in-the-money percentage. The fast closer running style could benefit from an honest pace.​

Betting Strategy

The race presents a classic maiden claiming scenario where multiple horses have shown ability without winning. Spielman’s consistency makes him the safest play, but Faith’s Spirit offers superior value at 7/2 given Asmussen’s prowess and the recent form improvement. Wizard Of Yester represents the best value play given Ortiz’s current dominance at Fair Grounds.

For exacta wagers, wheel Wizard Of Yester over Spielman and Faith’s Spirit while also boxing those three horses. The combination respects the morning line favorites while emphasizing the Ortiz factor. Include Somekinda Mischief and Lemon Sohn in trifecta combinations as closers who could benefit from pace pressure.​

Consider playing Wizard Of Yester across the board. Ortiz’s 27 percent win rate suggests he wins roughly one of every four races, and Sharp’s hot form provides additional support. The 5/1 morning line offers value given the jockey factor, and a top-three finish appears highly likely given Ortiz’s 56 percent in-the-money rate.​

Selections

Win: Wizard Of Yester

Place: Faith’s Spirit

Show: Spielman

Race 5 – Louisiana-Bred Maiden Special Weight

Post Time: 2:45 PM CST

6 Furlongs Dirt | Purse $54,000 | Fillies and Mares 3+

Pace Analysis

This nine-horse Louisiana-bred maiden special weight for fillies and mares sets up with multiple horses showing early speed capabilities. My Other Half exhibits the fastest leader style, suggesting she’ll attempt to wire the field from her favorable post position. Kin to the Wicked and It’s Been Real both show stalking tendencies, positioning themselves to track the early pace.​

The competitive nature of this field ensures honest early fractions. With three or four fillies likely positioned within two lengths of the lead by the first call, the pace should be genuine without being suicidal. This scenario favors fillies with tactical speed who can secure good position without engaging in early speed duels.​

Fair Grounds’ bias favoring inside speed in six-furlong dirt races applies here. Fillies breaking cleanly from posts 1-3 with tactical speed carry significant advantages. The presence of multiple horses showing stalking styles suggests the pace will be contested throughout, making post position and running style critical handicapping factors.​

Key Contenders

Kin to the Wicked takes favoritism at 5/2 morning line odds for elite trainer W. Bret Calhoun with Jose Ortiz aboard. This three-year-old filly finished a close third at this course and distance in her most recent start, demonstrating she fits well at this level. The Ortiz factor cannot be overstated, as the elite rider currently dominates Fair Grounds with exceptional statistics.​

Calhoun ranks among North America’s top trainers with a 20 percent win rate in 2025 and consistent success at Fair Grounds. His ability to place fillies correctly combined with Ortiz’s 27 percent win rate creates a powerful combination. The filly’s recent form shows improvement, with competitive efforts suggesting she’s ready to break through. The six-furlong dirt distance represents her optimal conditions based on breeding and race performance.​

My Other Half enters at 4/1 for trainer Allen Landry with Colby J. Hernandez riding. This three-year-old filly has finished second in both career starts, demonstrating remarkable consistency for a maiden. The fastest leader running style suggests she’ll attempt to control the pace from the start. Hernandez brings a 16 percent win rate and 48 percent in-the-money percentage to the assignment.​

The filly’s back-to-back runner-up efforts indicate she’s knocking on the door for her maiden victory. Her running style suits Fair Grounds’ speed bias, and drawing a middle post position allows her to establish position without racing too wide. The question is whether she can withstand pressure from stalkers while maintaining enough energy to repel challenges in the stretch.​

Secondary Choices

It’s Been Real offers value at 3/1 for trainer Jayde J. Gelner with Isaac Castillo riding. This three-year-old filly has compiled an impressive record of zero wins, five seconds, and seven thirds from eight starts for an 88 percent in-the-money rate. While she hasn’t won, she consistently hits the board and should appreciate the Louisiana-bred restriction.​

Gelner’s 19 percent win rate and 48 percent in-the-money percentage at the current meet demonstrates quality training. Castillo’s aggressive style suits fast stalker types who can position themselves favorably before making a late run. The filly’s consistency suggests she deserves respect even without a victory on her resume.​

The Rain Is Gone merits consideration at 6/1 for trainer Shane Wilson with Paco Lopez aboard. The presence of Lopez, one of Fair Grounds’ top riders, suggests this filly has more ability than her limited resume indicates. Debut runners or lightly raced fillies with quality jockeys often outperform expectations in maiden special weight events.

Betting Strategy

The race presents a classic pace scenario where the speed horse (My Other Half) faces pressure from quality stalkers (Kin to the Wicked, It’s Been Real). The Ortiz factor on Kin to the Wicked makes her the safest play, but My Other Half offers value if she can establish an uncontested lead.

For exacta wagers, use Kin to the Wicked and My Other Half as primary horses while including It’s Been Real in all combinations. The 4-5-8 exacta box covers the three most likely winners while respecting different pace scenarios. Add The Rain Is Gone and Bronze Legacy to trifecta combinations for additional coverage.​

Consider making Kin to the Wicked a single in multi-race wagers. Ortiz’s dominance at Fair Grounds combined with Calhoun’s training prowess makes this filly the most reliable horse on the entire card. While the 5/2 morning line doesn’t offer huge value, the combination of elite connections and improving form justifies confidence.​

Selections

Win: Kin to the Wicked

Place: My Other Half

Show: It’s Been Real

Race 6 – Maiden Optional Claiming

Post Time: 3:15 PM CST

1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt | Purse $30,000 | 2-Year-Old Colts and Geldings

Pace Analysis

This nine-horse maiden optional claiming event for two-year-olds at 1 mile 70 yards presents unique challenges as juveniles stretch out to this distance for the first time or return after struggling at the trip. Athletic Like’s scratch reduces the field to eight runners, creating a more manageable pace scenario.​

Flash of Chaos shows the fastest stalker running style among horses with race experience, suggesting he’ll position himself within striking distance of the early pace. Election Night exhibits fast stalker tendencies and has shown willingness to be forwardly placed. The pace should be moderate as several runners are debuting or stretching out for the first time.​

The 1 mile 70-yard distance favors horses with proven stamina and tactical speed. Fair Grounds’ dirt route statistics show posts 1-3 win 54 percent of routes, emphasizing the importance of inside posts and early position. Horses caught wide through the two turns face significant disadvantages, making post position critical in this spot.​

Key Contenders

Flash of Chaos commands favoritism at 5/2 morning line odds for trainer Peter Eurton with Brian Hernandez Jr. aboard. This two-year-old gelding has accumulated experience with three starts including an eighth in a Churchill Downs route, fourth in a Keeneland sprint, and fifth in a Churchill Downs sprint. The progression suggests improvement as he gains maturity.​

Hernandez brings elite credentials with a 21 percent win rate and 59 percent in-the-money percentage. His presence on this Eurton trainee suggests connections believe the distance stretch suits this gelding’s running style. The fastest stalker profile fits ideally for Fair Grounds routes, where being within a few lengths of the lead by the second call proves critical for victory.​

One Tough Road enters at 5/1 for red-hot trainer Joe Sharp with Jose Ortiz riding. This two-year-old colt has shown competitive ability with two starts producing a fourth and fifth at Churchill Downs in route races. The Sharp-Ortiz combination represents the most powerful trainer-jockey tandem at the current meet.​

Sharp’s hot start to Fair Grounds combined with Ortiz’s dominance creates a formidable partnership. The colt’s experience at the route distance provides an advantage over first-time routers. His fast stalker running style suits the Fair Grounds bias, and drawing a middle post position allows for a ground-saving trip through both turns.​

Secondary Choices

Liberty’s Champion offers value at 5/1 for Hall of Fame trainer Brad Cox with Marcelino Pedroza Jr. riding. This two-year-old colt represents West Point Thoroughbreds and makes his second career start following a sixth-place finish in a Fair Grounds route. Cox’s patient approach with young horses often produces breakthrough performances in second or third starts.​

The Constitution colt comes from a strong pedigree and cost connections significant money at auction. Cox’s 21 percent win rate in 2025 and consistent success with juveniles suggests this colt merits respect despite limited race experience. Pedroza’s familiarity with Fair Grounds and 14 percent win rate provides solid jockey support.​

Election Night represents a value play at 9/2 for trainer Shelly R. Radosevich with Jareth Loveberry aboard. This two-year-old colt has compiled a record of zero wins, one second, and one third from five starts for a 20 percent in-the-money rate. Recent form shows consistent efforts in competitive races. Loveberry’s 15 percent win rate and 42 percent in-the-money percentage at the current meet demonstrates quality riding.​

Betting Strategy

The race presents a competitive maiden optional claiming scenario where experienced horses face first-time routers. Flash of Chaos represents the safest play given Hernandez’s quality and the gelding’s improving form, but One Tough Road offers superior value at 5/1 given the Sharp-Ortiz factor.

For exacta wagers, focus on the Flash of Chaos versus One Tough Road matchup while including Liberty’s Champion as the value horse. The 2-6-8 combination respects the morning line favorites while accounting for Cox’s ability to win second-out with quality juveniles. Add Election Night and Orville’s Map to trifecta combinations.​

Consider making One Tough Road a win bet at 5/1 or better. Ortiz’s current dominance at Fair Grounds combined with Sharp’s hot hand creates value against Flash of Chaos at 5/2. The combination of an improving trainer, elite jockey, and proven route experience justifies backing this colt at generous odds.​

Selections

Win: One Tough Road

Place: Flash of Chaos

Show: Liberty’s Champion

Race 7 – Allowance

Post Time: 3:45 PM CST

5.5 Furlongs Turf | Purse $60,000 | 3-Year-Olds and Up

Pace Analysis

This six-horse allowance turf sprint represents the only grass race on the card and presents a competitive field of horses with varying levels of turf experience. The 5.5-furlong distance on Fair Grounds turf favors horses with tactical speed who can position themselves close to the pace without expending excessive early energy.​

Fair Grounds turf sprint statistics show stalkers win 40.5 percent of races over the 2020s, with speed winning 33 percent and closers 22 percent. This suggests the race sets up for horses who can track the early pace and accelerate in the stretch rather than pure speed or deep closers. The six-horse field creates less traffic congestion than typical turf races, benefiting horses who break cleanly.​

Heart Headed with Jose Ortiz shows potential to be forwardly placed given Ortiz’s aggressive style. Usually Wrong and High Front both exhibit tendencies to contest the early pace. Expect two or three horses to establish position within the first furlong with stalkers positioned close behind.​

Key Contenders

Heart Headed commands favoritism at even money morning line odds for trainer Joe Sharp with Jose Ortiz aboard. The combination of Sharp’s hot form and Ortiz’s dominance at Fair Grounds creates a powerful partnership that has proven nearly unbeatable at the current meet. The four-year-old colt carries top weight at 124 pounds but receives compensation through elite jockey support.​

Sharp ranks among the leading trainers at the current Fair Grounds meet with strong statistics across all race types. Ortiz’s 27 percent win rate and 56 percent in-the-money percentage makes any horse he rides a threat to win. The tactical nature of turf sprints suits Ortiz’s patient yet aggressive riding style, allowing him to position horses optimally before unleashing them in the stretch.​

High Front enters at reasonable morning line odds for Hall of Fame trainer Steven Asmussen with Paco Lopez riding. The six-year-old gelding brings extensive turf experience and should appreciate the return to sprint distances. Asmussen’s consistent success at Fair Grounds combined with Lopez’s quality creates a formidable combination.​

The gelding’s veteran status provides an advantage in tactical turf sprints where experience often proves decisive. His ability to rate kindly and finish strongly suits the Fair Grounds turf course. Lopez’s aggressive yet patient style allows him to capitalize on pace developments and position horses for late runs.​

Secondary Choices

Usually Wrong offers value for trainer Robertino Diodoro with Isaac Castillo aboard. The four-year-old colt shows competitive form and draws a favorable post position. Diodoro’s training prowess combined with Castillo’s familiarity with Fair Grounds creates a live longshot possibility.​

Champlin represents another logical contender with Brian Hernandez Jr. riding for trainer Gregory D. Foley. The five-year-old gelding carries 120 pounds, receiving a four-pound concession from top weight. Hernandez’s elite credentials suggest this gelding merits respect despite facing tough competition.​

Betting Strategy

The race appears to be Heart Headed’s to lose given the Sharp-Ortiz combination’s current dominance at Fair Grounds. However, the even money morning line offers limited value, making High Front a more attractive play for win bets at likely higher odds.

For exacta wagers, key Heart Headed on top over High Front, Usually Wrong, and Champlin. The 6-3 exacta respects the likely winner while including value alternatives. Consider playing an exacta box with Heart Headed and High Front as the primary combination while wheeling other horses underneath in trifecta and superfecta wagers.​

Given Heart Headed’s likely short price, consider making this race a pass for win bets while including multiple horses in exotic wagers. The small field creates opportunities for all horses to factor into the exotics, particularly in trifecta and superfecta combinations where closing types could surprise.​

Selections

Win: Heart Headed

Place: High Front

Show: Champlin

Race 8 – Louisiana-Bred Claiming

Post Time: 4:15 PM CST

6 Furlongs Dirt | Purse $15,000 | Claiming $5,000

Pace Analysis

This twelve-horse Louisiana-bred claiming sprint closes the card with the largest field of the day. Handsome Harold and Samurai’s Grandson scratched as veterinarians, reducing the field to ten runners and altering pace dynamics. Multiple horses show early speed tendencies, suggesting a contested and potentially fast pace through the opening furlongs.​

Bet On Bobby, Sonofaship, and Handsome Harold all exhibit fast leader or lead styles, creating potential for a speed duel. With three or four horses likely within two lengths of the lead by the first call, the pace should be genuine to fast. This scenario favors mid-pack types and closers who can avoid the early scramble while staying within striking distance.​

Fair Grounds’ inside speed bias applies equally in claiming races, but the large field creates more variables. Traffic issues and position battles become critical factors with ten runners. Horses drawing outside posts face challenges securing favorable position, particularly those with early speed who must use energy to cross over before the first turn.​

Key Contenders

Ampitup commands favoritism at 9/2 morning line odds for trainer Brittany T. Russell with Ben Curtis riding. This three-year-old gelding represents an elite trainer-jockey combination, with Russell boasting an exceptional 38 percent win rate and Curtis a 20 percent win rate with 51 percent in-the-money percentage. Recent form includes a dominant victory at Fair Grounds followed by consistent efforts.​

The gelding’s fast stalker running style suits Fair Grounds’ bias perfectly, allowing him to track the early pace while saving ground before accelerating in the stretch. Russell’s remarkable win percentage suggests she excels at placing horses correctly to maximize their chances. Curtis’s aggressive yet patient style complements stalker types who need position without using excessive early energy.​

Drewmazing enters at 4/1 for trainer Emile Schwandt with Jareth Loveberry aboard. This six-year-old gelding shows a fastest stalker style and has compiled consistent form with three wins from 36 starts for an 8 percent win rate but 47 percent in-the-money rate. Recent efforts show competitive races in similar company. Loveberry’s 12 percent win rate and 42 percent in-the-money percentage provide solid jockey support.​

The gelding’s experience and tactical speed suit the likely pace scenario. His ability to position himself favorably before making a late run fits the race shape perfectly. While not a frequent winner, his consistency suggests he’ll be part of the finish.​

Secondary Choices

Country Guy offers value at 6/1 for trainer Cesar Govea with Paco Lopez riding. The four-year-old gelding shows a mid-pack leads running style and has compiled a record of competitive efforts in claiming company. Lopez’s presence suggests the connections have confidence in this gelding’s chances. His 24 percent win rate at Fair Grounds creates value when combined with horses at generous odds.​

Apriority Rocket merits consideration at 5/1 for trainer Lee Thomas with Colby J. Hernandez aboard. The five-year-old gelding exhibits a mid-pack stalker style and recent form shows strong efforts including a second and first in recent starts. The Thomas-Hernandez combination creates a live possibility at value odds.​

Longshots

Hooray Austin represents a value longshot at 9/1 for trainer Chadwick J. Mouton with Marcelino Pedroza Jr. riding. The nine-year-old veteran brings extensive experience and shows a slowest stalker style that could benefit from a contested pace. Pedroza’s quality riding provides an edge over less accomplished jockeys. The gelding’s 18 percent win rate suggests he wins occasionally despite his age.​

Cajun Cyclone at 12/1 offers longshot value for trainer Edith A. Mojica with Axel Concepcion riding. The four-year-old gelding shows a mid-pack stalker style and recent form includes competitive efforts. Concepcion’s 13 percent win rate and 40 percent in-the-money percentage creates value when combined with horses at double-digit odds.​

Betting Strategy

The large field creates opportunities for value in exotic wagers. Ampitup represents the safest play given Russell’s exceptional win percentage and Curtis’s quality, but the 9/2 morning line offers reasonable value. Focus on building around Ampitup while including multiple horses in exacta, trifecta, and superfecta combinations.

For exacta wagers, key Ampitup over Drewmazing, Country Guy, Apriority Rocket, and Sonofaship. The large field justifies using multiple horses in the second position to ensure coverage. Consider playing a trifecta wheel with Ampitup on top over the field, as the contested pace could produce surprising results.​

Include longshots Hooray Austin and Cajun Cyclone in superfecta combinations. The contested pace and large field create opportunities for closers to rally into the superfecta at generous prices. A $1 superfecta box using six or seven horses costs only $120-$840 depending on runners included, offering significant upside if the exotics blow up.​

Selections

Win: Ampitup

Place: Drewmazing

Show: Country Guy

Jockey Notes and Insights

Jose Ortiz has transformed Fair Grounds’ jockey colony with his dominant performance during his first winter at the New Orleans oval. Through mid-January, Ortiz accumulated 44 winners from approximately 140 mounts for a remarkable 31 percent win rate, crushing the competition. His decision to shift from his traditional NYRA circuit and Gulfstream Park winter base to Fair Grounds has proven spectacularly successful.​

Ortiz’s move to Kentucky last spring prompted the Fair Grounds shift, as many of his Kentucky-based trainers winter in New Orleans rather than Florida. The arrangement allows him to ride for consistent connections year-round while maintaining family stability. His dominance extends beyond win percentage—Ortiz boasts a 56 percent in-the-money rate, meaning more than half his mounts finish in the top three.​

The Puerto Rican rider’s partnership with top trainers creates a powerful combination. He rides regularly for Brad Cox, Steven Asmussen, Cherie DeVaux, Joe Sharp, and W. Bret Calhoun—the cream of Fair Grounds’ training colony. On Sunday’s card, Ortiz has seven mounts including key horses in Races 4, 5, 6, and 7. His presence elevates any horse instantly, as connections reserve their best mounts for the meet’s leading rider.​

Paco Lopez returns to Fair Grounds after serving a six-month suspension issued by the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority. The suspension, stemming from crop violations and prior conduct issues, kept one of racing’s most accomplished riders on the sidelines through much of 2025. Lopez ranks 14th nationally with 321 wins and over $13 million in earnings for 2025, demonstrating his exceptional talent.​

Lopez’s aggressive riding style has produced seven Monmouth Park riding titles and numerous graded stakes victories, including the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Sprint. His willingness to push horses early and make bold tactical decisions creates opportunities but occasionally draws steward scrutiny. On Sunday’s card, Lopez rides Gold Plus in Race 1, Orville’s Map in Race 6, and Country Guy in Race 8.​

Brian Hernandez Jr. ranks among North America’s elite riders with a 21 percent career win rate and 59 percent in-the-money percentage. The Kentucky-based rider excels in big-race situations, combining tactical patience with aggressive stretch drives. His mount Flash of Chaos in Race 6 and Geaux Crazy in Race 3 represent prime opportunities for the talented rider to add to his impressive resume.​

Ben Curtis has established himself as a Fair Grounds mainstay with a 22.63 percent win rate and 51.09 percent in-the-money percentage at the current meet. The veteran rider excels at rating horses in traffic and timing late runs, making him particularly effective in claiming races and competitive allowance events. His mount Ampitup in Race 8 represents his best opportunity on Sunday’s card.​

Marcelino Pedroza Jr. provides consistent professional rides with a 14 percent win rate and 47 percent in-the-money percentage at Fair Grounds. The jockey’s patient style suits stalkers and closers who need to settle early before making late runs. He rides quality mounts for connections including Sam B. David Jr. and Brad Cox, demonstrating trainer confidence in his abilities. On Sunday, Pedroza rides Pasketee in Race 2, Kin to the Wicked in Race 5, Liberty’s Champion in Race 6, and Hooray Austin in Race 8.​

Isaac Castillo has emerged as a reliable Fair Grounds rider with a 7 percent win rate and 36 percent in-the-money percentage. While his win rate appears modest, Castillo excels at getting horses into positions to hit the board. His aggressive style suits Fair Grounds’ speed bias, as he’s willing to commit horses early to secure favorable position. Castillo rides Foxy Zorra in Race 1, Faith’s Spirit in Race 4, It’s Been Real in Race 5, and Usually Wrong in Race 7.​

Jareth Loveberry ranks among Fair Grounds’ most active riders with a 15 percent win rate and 42 percent in-the-money percentage. His high volume of mounts creates opportunities to ride for multiple barns while maintaining consistent success. Loveberry excels in claiming races where his experience navigating traffic proves valuable. He rides Drewmazing in Race 8 and Election Night in Race 6.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Brad Cox continues his dominance of North American racing with 1,033 wins and top earnings in 2025. The two-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer has established Fair Grounds as a key component of his winter campaign, using the meet to develop Kentucky Derby and Oaks hopefuls while maintaining his claiming and allowance string.​

Cox’s methodical approach with young horses produces breakthrough performances in second and third starts. Liberty’s Champion in Race 6 represents a classic Cox situation—a well-bred Constitution colt making his second start after a learning experience debut. Cox excels at identifying when horses are ready to win, making his second-out runners particularly dangerous.​

The Louisville-based conditioner’s partnership with elite jockeys creates a formidable combination. He utilizes Jose Ortiz, Luis Saez, and Florent Geroux regularly, ensuring his horses receive top-flight rides. Cox’s claiming horses often improve dramatically after joining his barn, as his systematic training program identifies and addresses issues that prevented previous success.​

Steven Asmussen ranks second nationally with 2,239 starts in 2025, demonstrating his massive racing operation. The Hall of Fame trainer has won virtually every major race in North America and excels at placing horses correctly across all levels. His Fair Grounds string features Kentucky Derby and Oaks prospects alongside claiming horses, reflecting his ability to manage a diverse stable.​

Asmussen’s strength lies in his systematic approach and deep team of assistants. He identifies when horses need equipment changes, surface switches, or class adjustments, making his runners dangerous in any spot. Faith’s Spirit in Race 4 represents a typical Asmussen situation—a horse shipping from another track who fits perfectly in maiden claiming company.​

Joe Sharp has emerged as one of Fair Grounds’ hottest trainers at the current meet, combining quality horses with elite jockeys to produce exceptional results. His partnership with Jose Ortiz creates a nearly unbeatable combination, as Sharp identifies when horses are ready to deliver peak performances. Sharp ranks among the meet leaders with strong win percentages and consistent success across race types.​

The Kentucky-based trainer excels with allowance horses and maiden special weights, identifying spots where his runners hold class advantages. One Tough Road in Race 6, Wizard Of Yester in Race 4, and Heart Headed in Race 7 all represent prime Sharp opportunities with elite jockey support. His hot form suggests backing his runners regardless of morning line odds.​

W. Bret Calhoun has built his reputation on success with Louisiana-bred horses at Fair Grounds. The Texas-based trainer maintains a strong winter presence in New Orleans, utilizing his knowledge of the track and local breeding to identify value claiming horses and develop stakes prospects. His 20 percent win rate in 2025 demonstrates consistent excellence across all race types.​

Calhoun excels at placing fillies and mares correctly, identifying when they’re ready to break through in maiden or allowance company. Kin to the Wicked in Race 5 represents a classic Calhoun situation—a filly with competitive form who fits perfectly in Louisiana-bred maiden special weight company. His partnership with Jose Ortiz creates a particularly powerful combination.​

Brittany T. Russell has established herself among racing’s elite trainers with a remarkable 38 percent win rate. The Maryland-based conditioner’s success stems from careful horse placement and patient training that allows horses to develop properly before racing. Her Fair Grounds raiders often produce upsets, as she identifies spots where her horses hold significant class advantages.​

Russell’s Ampitup in Race 8 represents a prime example of her placing ability. The three-year-old gelding drops into Louisiana-bred claiming company where he should hold class advantages over state-bred rivals. Russell’s exceptional statistics suggest her runners deserve maximum respect regardless of competition level.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Sunday’s Fair Grounds card presents multiple opportunities for value wagering across dirt and turf surfaces. The key to profitable wagering lies in respecting Fair Grounds’ pronounced biases while identifying horses with elite connections at reasonable prices.

The single best bet of the day is Kin to the Wicked in Race 5. The combination of W. Bret Calhoun and Jose Ortiz creates an almost unbeatable partnership, particularly in Louisiana-bred maiden special weight company. Ortiz’s 27 percent win rate and Calhoun’s 20 percent win rate combine with the filly’s improving form to create a high-probability winner. While the 5/2 morning line doesn’t offer huge value, the reliability justifies confidence. Make Kin to the Wicked a single in all multi-race wagers including this race.

Wizard Of Yester in Race 4 represents the best pure value play on the card. The combination of Joe Sharp’s hot form and Jose Ortiz’s dominance creates a powerful partnership at 5/1 morning line odds. Sharp ranks among the meet’s leading trainers, and Ortiz wins roughly one of every four races. The maiden claiming class appears appropriate for this gelding who has shown consistent placed efforts. A win bet at 5/1 or better offers excellent risk-reward value.

One Tough Road in Race 6 provides another strong value opportunity at 5/1. The Sharp-Ortiz combination represents the most dominant trainer-jockey partnership at the current meet. While Flash of Chaos merits favoritism, One Tough Road’s proven route experience and elite connections justify backing at generous odds. The two-year-old route race creates uncertainty that Sharp and Ortiz can exploit.

For multi-race wagers, construct a Pick 3 covering Races 5-6-7 using the following structure:

• Race 5: Kin to the Wicked (single)
• Race 6: One Tough Road, Flash of Chaos, Liberty’s Champion
• Race 7: Heart Headed, High Front

This combination costs $6 for a $1 ticket and provides coverage of the most likely outcomes while emphasizing value in Race 6. The single on Kin to the Wicked reflects confidence in the Sharp-Ortiz combination while spreading in the two-year-old route and turf sprint.

A Pick 4 covering Races 4-5-6-7 offers larger payoffs with reasonable cost:

• Race 4: Wizard Of Yester, Faith’s Spirit, Spielman
• Race 5: Kin to the Wicked (single)
• Race 6: One Tough Road, Flash of Chaos, Liberty’s Champion
• Race 7: Heart Headed, High Front

This combination costs $18 for a $1 ticket and provides comprehensive coverage while emphasizing the Ortiz factor throughout. The single on Kin to the Wicked saves cost while maximizing value in the maiden claiming and two-year-old route races.

For exacta value, focus on Race 8 where the large field and contested pace create opportunities for generous payouts. Key Ampitup over the field in exacta boxes while including longshots Hooray Austin and Cajun Cyclone. The Russell-Curtis combination makes Ampitup the most reliable horse, but the chaotic pace could produce surprising results underneath.

Trifecta value appears strongest in Race 2 where the ten-horse Louisiana-bred field creates opportunities for generous payouts. Box Pasketee, Half Way There, and Sir Mack while including Righteous Freedom and Catchin Drama in extended combinations. The 5-6-1 with Righteous Freedom and Catchin Drama creates a $60 ticket that could return significant value if the pace melts down.

For superfecta hunting, target Race 8’s twelve-horse field. Wheel Ampitup over six or seven horses in a $1 superfecta, including longshots Hooray Austin, Cajun Cyclone, and Bet On Bobby. The contested pace and large field create opportunities for closers to rally into the superfecta at double-digit odds, potentially producing five-figure payouts on a modest investment.

Daily Double value exists connecting Race 5 (Kin to the Wicked) to Race 6 (One Tough Road, Flash of Chaos, Liberty’s Champion). This combination costs $3 for a $1 ticket and provides value if One Tough Road wins at 5/1 or better. The Ortiz double creates a logical wagering sequence while maximizing value in the two-year-old route.

Show parlay betting offers conservative players an alternative to straight win wagering. Bet Kin to the Wicked to show in Race 5, collect the modest profit, then parlay the entire amount to Ampitup to show in Race 8. Both horses have elite connections and should finish in the top three with high probability. While payoffs are modest, the strategy provides positive expected value for conservative bettors.

The most important strategic consideration is respecting the Jose Ortiz factor throughout the card. The elite jockey’s dominance at Fair Grounds creates value in every race he rides. Make Wizard Of Yester, Kin to the Wicked, One Tough Road, and Heart Headed primary plays in their respective races. Ortiz’s 27 percent win rate and 56 percent in-the-money percentage justify maximum confidence in his mounts.

Avoid betting against the bias in dirt sprints. Fair Grounds’ pronounced inside speed bias makes backing closers from outside posts a losing proposition. Focus on horses with tactical speed drawing inside posts, particularly in Races 1 and 2. The statistics clearly demonstrate that closers win only 14 percent of six-furlong dirt races at Fair Grounds, making them poor wagering propositions regardless of class or connections.

Weather monitoring becomes critical as the card progresses. Passing showers forecast for Sunday afternoon could transform track conditions by the later races. If rain arrives, adjust wagering to emphasize speed horses who can avoid kickback while de-emphasizing closers. A sloppy or muddy track amplifies Fair Grounds’ existing speed bias, making front-runners nearly unbeatable.

The best all-around wagering approach combines conservative singles on high-probability favorites (Kin to the Wicked, Ampitup) with value plays on horses with elite connections at generous odds (Wizard Of Yester, One Tough Road). This balanced approach provides steady returns from reliable favorites while capturing upside when value horses win at premium prices. The key is identifying situations where superior connections create value despite reasonable morning line odds.