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Santa Anita Park presents a high-quality nine-race card highlighted by the Grade 3 La Canada Stakes in Race 8, featuring a fascinating duel between trainer Bob Baffert’s Brilliantly and Doug O’Neill’s So There She Was. The card offers diverse betting opportunities across claiming, allowance, maiden, and stakes competition spanning both dirt and turf surfaces. With the turf rail positioned at 20 feet and fast dirt conditions expected, handicappers must carefully evaluate track biases and running styles to maximize wagering value.
The meet standings through January 11 show Mark Glatt leading trainers with a 26 percent strike rate, while Juan Hernandez tops the jockey colony at 24 percent, establishing himself as Santa Anita’s premier rider. The meet has showcased a pronounced speed bias on dirt sprints, with early-positioned horses winning 56-58 percent of races, while turf routes play more fairly with a slight disadvantage for deep closers.
Weather and Track Conditions
Saturday’s forecast calls for sunny skies with a high temperature of 77°F and an overnight low of 61°F, though some models suggest partly sunny conditions with a 45 percent chance of showers. The main track should maintain a fast rating barring unexpected precipitation, while the turf course is expected to remain firm. The turf rail is set at 20 feet, which historically favors inside-drawn horses and creates an advantage for those able to save ground.
Track superintendent crews have maintained excellent racing surfaces throughout the current meet, with the main dirt track showing consistent speed-favoring tendencies while the turf plays remarkably fair for all running styles. Morning track conditions typically dry quickly under Southern California’s winter sun, and today’s ideal weather should produce optimal racing surfaces for both dirt and turf competition.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Statistical analysis of the current Santa Anita meet reveals significant bias patterns that handicappers must incorporate into wagering decisions. On the main dirt track, sprints strongly favor early speed and pressing tactics, with horses racing on or within one length of the lead capturing 56-58 percent of victories. Inside posts 1-3 provide approximately 50 percent of sprint winners, creating a substantial positional advantage for speed horses drawn low.
The meet data through January 11 shows six-furlong dirt races posting just 18 percent wire-to-wire winners, indicating that early pace/pressing types who can inherit or press the lead slightly outperform pure frontrunners. Stalkers positioned one to four lengths back account for 34 percent of dirt sprint winners, while deep closers face significant disadvantages, managing only eight percent of victories when rallying from four or more lengths behind.
Dirt routes at one mile moderate the speed bias slightly but still favor early positioning, with frontrunners winning 53 percent of races and stalkers capturing 35 percent. Closers manage only 12-13 percent of route victories, making tactical position critical in two-turn dirt events.
The turf course with rails at 20 feet plays more fairly overall but shows distinct patterns at specific distances. One-mile turf routes, the most common grass distance, disadvantage closers who win just 19 percent of races, compared to 30-40 percent for early speed types and stalkers combined. Inside posts gain advantage when rails are positioned at 20 feet, as horses can save significant ground through the turns. Flat turf sprints from the backstretch chute play fairly to all running styles except deep closers, who account for just 22 percent of winners.
Race 1 – Claiming 6 Furlongs Turf
Post Time: 12:30 PM
This $25,000 claiming sprint on the turf opens the card with six older males seeking their third career victory. The rail at 20 feet creates a typical turf sprint configuration that should play fairly, though inside posts gain a slight edge. The class level suggests competitive but moderate pace dynamics.
Pace Analysis
The early pace scenario appears relatively honest with moderate speed signatures from multiple entrants. Player B and Billy Joe Shaver both show early tactical speed, while Belly Up has demonstrated early pace capability. The presence of multiple forwardly-placed types prevents any single horse from stealing easy fractions, though the pace should remain manageable rather than destructive. The configuration favors horses with tactical speed who can secure good position within the first furlong, as the six-furlong turf sprint offers limited opportunity for sustained rallies.
Fractional projections suggest an opening quarter in the 22.2-22.4 range with a half-mile around 45.2-45.4, creating a fair test that allows both early and mid-pack types to compete effectively. The final time should approximate 1:08.2-1:08.4 on firm turf, representing solid but not exceptional pace dynamics.
Key Contenders
Player B emerges as the consensus selection with strong course-and-distance credentials and proven ability at this claiming level. The six-year-old ridgling by American Pharoah shows consistent turf form and tactical versatility, having demonstrated the ability to rate kindly or press moderate fractions. Trainer Francisco Rodriguez’s barn maintains solid statistics, and jockey Juan Hernandez provides a significant upgrade given his 24 percent strike rate at the current meet.
The horse’s recent form suggests sharpness and readiness, with workout patterns indicating peak condition. Player B’s running style fits the likely pace scenario perfectly, allowing positioning flexibility behind any early pressure while maintaining closing punch. The claiming level represents appropriate class placement, and the horse has defeated similar competition in recent starts. Morning line odds of 9-5 suggest public recognition of the horse’s credentials, though value may exist if money flows elsewhere.
Billy Joe Shaver adds blinkers for the first time while cutting back to six furlongs after recent dirt attempts. The five-year-old horse by Grazen won impressively last out and shows tactical speed that could prove effective from the outside post. The equipment change signals trainer Cesar DeAlba’s attempt to sharpen focus and tactical awareness. Jockey Hector Isaac Berrios, riding at 30 percent for the meet, provides skilled piloting.
The combination of the cutback distance, new equipment, and tactical speed creates a legitimate winning profile, particularly if Billy Joe Shaver can clear to comfortable position tracking any early pace. The horse’s recent dirt victory demonstrates current form, and breeding suggests turf aptitude through the sire Grazen’s successful turf runners.
Secondary Choices
The Old Nine (IRE) brings international pedigree and turf breeding to this assignment while shortening back to six furlongs. The five-year-old Irish-bred horse shows a sharp closing second at this course and distance two starts back, earning an 81 Beyer Speed Figure that represents competitive class for this level. The horse’s running style as a deep closer creates pace dependency, requiring honest or pressured early fractions to set up the late rally.
Jockey Kazushi Kimura’s 17 percent meet win rate proves acceptable, though the pilot’s patient style suits late-running types. The distance reduction from route to sprint potentially compromises the horse’s preferred running pattern, as deep closers face considerable difficulty in six-furlong turf sprints where early positioning proves more valuable. However, if the pace heats up between Player B, Billy Joe Shaver, and others, The Old Nine could benefit from a favorable pace setup.
Belly Up drops in class while making the fifth start of the current campaign. The six-year-old gelding shows versatility and tactical speed but faces questions about recent form consistency. The class drop from higher claiming levels provides relief, and trainer Brian Koriner’s local presence suggests fitness and preparation. The horse’s early speed capabilities create options for jockey Armando Ayuso to secure favorable position, particularly from the outside post that offers clean break potential.
Selections
Win: Player B
Place: Billy Joe Shaver
Show: The Old Nine (IRE)
Race 2 – Maiden Claiming 1 Mile Dirt
Post Time: 1:00 PM
California-bred and California-sired maidens compete at the $20,000 claiming level in this competitive six-horse field. The restricted conditions and claiming tag suggest horses with limitations, though several show promise based on recent efforts. The one-mile distance provides ample time for tactical development and stretch rallies.
Pace Analysis
One Step Beyond and Golden Chaser both demonstrate early tactical speed, creating potential pressure through the opening half-mile. Smokeintheair also shows frontrunning tendencies, though also-eligible status creates uncertainty about the actual starter. The presence of multiple early types suggests honest rather than slow fractions, projecting an opening quarter around 23.1-23.3 with a half-mile near 46.4-47.0.
The pace setup creates advantages for horses with early foot to secure favorable position entering the far turn, while late-running types like Autism Unity face significant difficulty given Santa Anita’s documented closer bias showing just 13 percent route winners from deep-closing positions. The projected final time of 1:37.4-1:38.0 represents appropriate maiden claiming class at one mile.
Key Contenders
One Step Beyond narrowly missed in the most recent start after showing steady improvement throughout the nine-race campaign. The three-year-old gelding by Pavel demonstrates high-percentage probability metrics across multiple handicapping models, including a 39-72-95 percent profile from sophisticated probability modeling. The recent second-place finish showed professional tactical speed and ability to rate behind pressure before engaging in the stretch.
Trainer Jorge Periban, though operating with a smaller stable, shows attention to horse placement and development. Jockey Kazushi Kimura’s return to this partnership suggests confidence in the horse’s readiness. The gelding’s consistent improvement through progressive starts indicates maturity and understanding of racing fundamentals, often a key separator in maiden claiming competition where many horses show physical or mental limitations.
The one-mile distance fits the horse’s developing stamina, and the California-bred/sired condition ensures appropriate class relief compared to open maiden races. Morning line odds suggest public recognition, though the horse’s demonstrated consistency warrants confidence. The combination of improving form, appropriate distance, and tactical versatility creates a strong winning profile.
Golden Chaser returns to the $20,000 maiden claiming level after an attempted step up proved unsuccessful in the most recent outing. The three-year-old gelding by Sir Prancealot finished second at this level two starts back, demonstrating competitive ability when appropriately placed. The class drop provides critical relief, and second-time Lasix addition could provide physical improvement.
Trainer George Papaprodromou operates at 19 percent with 57 percent in-the-money consistency, suggesting sound horsemanship and proper placement. The horse’s early speed capabilities create tactical flexibility, particularly if One Step Beyond establishes clear early positioning. Golden Chaser can either press or stalk depending on pace development, providing jockey Jeremy Laprida with multiple strategic options.
Secondary Choices
Mr. Tariff adds first-time blinkers while showing promise in limited starts. The three-year-old gelding finished third over course and distance in the most recent effort, demonstrating tactical awareness and ability to handle the one-mile distance. Trainer Jeff Bonde maintains 14 percent meet statistics with 52 percent in-the-money, indicating competent conditioning.
The blinkers-on angle merits attention, as the equipment change often sharpens focus and tactical response, particularly valuable in maiden races where inexperience creates racing errors. The horse’s breeding by Point Piper suggests stamina for the distance, and the recent third-place finish indicates current fitness. Jockey Edwin Maldonado brings 11 percent meet statistics with 40 percent in-the-money consistency.
Selections
Win: One Step Beyond
Place: Golden Chaser
Show: Mr. Tariff
Race 3 – Starter Optional Claiming 6.5 Furlongs Turf
Post Time: 1:32 PM
This starter optional claiming event for older horses creates competitive dynamics between allowance-level types and claiming horses with starter conditions. The 6.5-furlong turf distance from the backstretch chute provides a fair test that accommodates multiple running styles, though early positioning maintains importance.
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario suggests honest early fractions with A Day to Remember likely establishing clear early position given demonstrated early speed. Burning Rubber also shows tactical pace capabilities, creating potential for modest pressure through the opening quarter-mile. The absence of extreme early speed types suggests manageable fractions that allow pressing and mid-pack horses to remain competitive.
Projected fractions of 22.1-22.3 for the opening quarter and 44.4-44.8 for the half-mile create a fair test without pace meltdown scenarios. The final time should approximate 1:14.2-1:14.4 for 6.5 furlongs on firm turf with the rail at 20 feet, representing solid pace dynamics that favor horses with early tactical speed and turn-of-foot capabilities.
Key Contenders
A Day to Remember steps down in class after competing at higher levels, bringing superior credentials to this assignment. The five-year-old gelding by Uncle Mo shows 42-76-95 percent probability metrics from sophisticated modeling, indicating high confidence based on class, form, and tactical factors. The horse’s two recent turf sprint victories at this course demonstrate comfort with the Santa Anita turf configuration and six-furlong distance.
Trainer Mark Glatt leads the current meet with 26 percent wins and 63 percent in-the-money, establishing top-tier local form. The combination with jockey Abel Lezcano creates a winning partnership given their combined statistics and tactical understanding. A Day to Remember’s early speed allows securing favorable position within the first furlong, eliminating traffic concerns and positioning the horse to control race dynamics.
The class drop from higher optional levels provides significant relief while maintaining eligibility through starter conditions. The horse’s demonstrated turn of foot at this distance creates multiple winning scenarios, whether securing early position and maintaining or tracking moderate pace before asserting late. Recent workouts indicate peak fitness and sharpness for today’s assignment.
Burning Rubber shortens back to sprint distance after competing in route races most recently. The four-year-old colt by Flameaway finished a good second behind repeat winner Crazy Cavalier in November when facing winners for the first time, earning competitive speed figures. The cutback to sprint distance fits the horse’s tactical speed and early positioning preferences, potentially allowing trainer Sean McCarthy to unleash aggressive tactics.
The six-month layoff creates freshness questions, though reported workouts suggest proper preparation. The speed-figure progression shows capability at this level, and breeding indicates versatility across distances. Jockey Juan Hernandez’s 24 percent meet win rate provides elite piloting, and the combination of class, speed, and tactical flexibility creates legitimate winning probability.
Secondary Choices
Silly Rabbit returns from a five-month layoff with strong course-and-distance credentials from previous racing. The four-year-old gelding sports the top late pace figure in this field and has run well in all three career turf sprint tries. Trainer Ryan Hanson, though operating with limited starts, has the horse fit based on workout patterns.
The extended absence creates fitness concerns that even quality morning drills cannot fully answer. However, the horse’s late-running style could benefit if A Day to Remember and Burning Rubber engage in honest early fractions. The Uncle Mo sire line provides class and turf aptitude, and a ground-saving trip from the rail could offset any fitness deficit while setting up a closing rally.
Selections
Win: A Day to Remember
Place: Burning Rubber
Show: Silly Rabbit
Race 4 – Starter Allowance 5.5 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time: 2:05 PM
Fillies and mares who started for $6,250 or less during 2025-2026 compete in this short sprint that emphasizes early speed and tactical positioning. The 5.5-furlong distance provides minimal opportunity for sustained rallies, placing premium value on horses with early foot and tactical awareness.
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario appears contentious with multiple early speed types likely battling for position through the opening furlongs. Auditory, Rousing Jewel, and potentially others show frontrunning or pressing tendencies, creating honest to pressured early fractions. Santa Anita’s documented speed bias in dirt sprints, showing 56-58 percent winners from early positions, amplifies the importance of securing favorable position immediately.
Projected opening quarter fractions of 21.4-21.3 suggest genuine speed, with the half-mile potentially reaching 44.3-44.4 before horses hit the stretch run. The pace setup creates potential for late-running value if the expected speed duel materializes, though the 5.5-furlong distance provides limited time for sustained rallies. Final time projections of 1:02.4-1:03.0 represent competitive class for this starter allowance level.
Key Contenders
Auditory demonstrates exceptional affinity for Santa Anita racing, particularly at the 5.5-furlong distance. The five-year-old mare by Audible owns a remarkable 5-3-1-0 record at this track and posts a perfect 4-3-1-0 mark at today’s distance. This track-and-distance specialization provides enormous confidence, as the mare has defeated several of today’s rivals on multiple occasions, establishing clear class superiority in these specific conditions.
Trainer Antonio Flores maintains the mare in sharp form, with recent efforts showing consistent competitiveness. The horse exits a beaten favorite third under the Los Alamitos lights after breaking slowly, suggesting bad luck rather than declining form. The return to Santa Anita and stretch-out from the abbreviated Los Al configuration should provide the comfort factors necessary for peak performance. Jockey Ricardo Ramirez knows the mare well and can execute tactical decisions with confidence.
The mare’s early tactical speed allows securing favorable position from any post, and the documented Santa Anita speed bias creates perfect conditions for her running style. Morning line odds of 3-2 reflect public awareness of her track-and-distance dominance, though the probability of victory exceeds those odds given her proven superiority over these rivals at this venue.
Rousing Jewel brings 32-75-95 percent probability metrics from sophisticated modeling, indicating high confidence based on multiple handicapping factors. The six-year-old mare demonstrates consistent frontrunning or pressing tactics, having defeated competitive fields through early positioning and determination. The Howard and Janet Siegel Racing colors have enjoyed success at Santa Anita, and trainer Steve Knapp’s 18 percent win rate with 42 percent in-the-money proves acceptable.
Jockey Kyle Frey’s 17 percent meet statistics with 42 percent in-the-money establish competent riding ability. The mare’s recent runner-up finish at this track in a six-furlong event shows current sharpness and fitness, and the slight distance reduction to 5.5 furlongs fits her early-speed profile perfectly. If Rousing Jewel can establish clear early position or press Auditory through manageable fractions, her determination could produce victory or guarantee placing.
Secondary Choices
Uffda makes a second recent start over this course and distance after finishing second in a similar event. The five-year-old mare shows slowest-stalker running style in a race emphasizing early speed, creating tactical disadvantages. However, the mare’s recent runner-up finish demonstrates current fitness and competitive ability at this level.
Trainer Jorge Farias operates with smaller stable but shows attention to proper placement. The five-pound weight reduction to 119 pounds through apprentice jockey Alfredo Bautista provides modest relief, though the combination’s 5 percent meet win rate creates confidence concerns. If the expected early pace duel between Auditory, Rousing Jewel, and others materializes into genuine speed pressure, Uffda’s stalking style could produce late interest for minor awards.
Selections
Win: Auditory
Place: Rousing Jewel
Show: Uffda
Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight 1-1/8 Miles Turf
Post Time: 2:34 PM
Three-year-old fillies compete at the maiden special weight level in this 1-1/8-mile turf route, representing prime conditions for developing horses from quality connections. The extended distance tests stamina and class while the maiden condition creates uncertainty based on limited racing experience and progressive improvement curves.
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario appears modest to honest with no dominant early speed types likely to establish significant separation. Multiple fillies show mid-pack to stalking tendencies, suggesting a gradual development of pace pressure rather than aggressive early positioning battles. The 1-1/8-mile distance provides ample time for tactical maneuvering and strategic decision-making by riders.
Projected fractions of 24.1-24.3 for the opening quarter-mile and 48.4-48.8 for the half-mile represent comfortable early tempo that allows fillies to settle into rhythm without excessive pace pressure. The turf bias favoring stalkers and pressers over deep closers remains relevant, though the extended distance provides more recovery time than sprint configurations. Final time projections of 1:47.2-1:48.0 represent appropriate maiden special weight class for developing three-year-old fillies.
Key Contenders
Victorious Dream (IRE) brings international pedigree and trainer Michael McCarthy’s 26 percent win rate with 48 percent in-the-money statistics to this assignment. The Irish-bred filly by Ghaiyyath attracted decent tote support for her first American try but broke slowly and never engaged, finishing fifth of six. The addition of Lasix for today represents a common improvement angle, potentially addressing respiratory or bleeding issues that compromised the debut performance.
The distance stretch-out to 1-1/8 miles fits European breeding patterns and should accommodate the filly’s running style better than the abbreviated American sprint distances. Hall of Fame jockey Victor Espinoza provides elite riding ability despite recent career struggles, posting a 29 percent strike rate for 2026’s limited starts. The combination of equipment addition, distance increase, and tactical adjustments from the debut effort creates reasonable improvement expectations.
McCarthy trains a stablemate in this event, Island Home, suggesting the barn holds both fillies in similar regard. The Irish breeding through Ghaiyyath provides stamina for the distance, and European maiden races often prove more demanding than American equivalents, potentially giving Victorious Dream a class advantage if translating form properly.
Island Home makes the fourth career start for trainer Michael McCarthy after showing steady positioning in three previous turf route attempts. The three-year-old filly by Flatter demonstrates deep-running style with 22-69-95 percent probability metrics from sophisticated modeling. The consistency of competitive efforts without victory creates typical maiden pattern of incremental improvement toward breakthrough performance.
Jockey Kazushi Kimura’s 17 percent meet statistics with 42 percent in-the-money prove acceptable for this assignment. The filly’s breeding by Flatter suggests versatility and class, though stamina for 1-1/8 miles requires confirmation. Recent form shows competitiveness without domination, suggesting the filly remains a work in progress rather than ready-made winner. However, the maiden special weight condition creates opportunities for breakthrough performances, particularly for developing fillies making their fourth career start.
Secondary Choices
Inbox (GB) makes the racing debut for trainer Philip D’Amato’s high-percentage barn. First-time starters always create handicapping uncertainty, though D’Amato’s 12 percent win rate with 45 percent in-the-money from 40 starts at the current meet establishes credibility. The British breeding suggests quality and potential class, though American racing debuts by European-bred runners show mixed results depending on training preparation and tactical understanding.
The complete absence of racing data eliminates traditional handicapping analysis, leaving bettors to evaluate training patterns, breeding, connections, and stable form. D’Amato’s success with first-time turf starters provides modest confidence, and jockey Tiago Pereira’s 10 percent meet win rate with 31 percent in-the-money proves acceptable. The filly represents unknown quantity with potential upside but limited confidence for win betting.
Channel Place makes the third career start for trainer Doug O’Neill after showing improved speed stretching out to one mile in the most recent effort. The filly by Liam’s Map flashed encouraging speed before tiring to sixth, suggesting the combination of third-start improvement and added distance could unlock competitive performance. O’Neill’s 22 percent meet win rate with 41 percent in-the-money establishes strong current form.
Selections
Win: Victorious Dream (IRE)
Place: Island Home
Show: Inbox (GB)
Race 6 – Starter Optional Claiming 6.5 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time: 3:04 PM
Fillies and mares who started for $20,000 or less in 2025-2026 face $25,000 claiming opposition in this sprint that emphasizes tactical speed and early positioning. The 6.5-furlong distance provides slightly more time for tactical development than abbreviated sprints but still rewards forward positioning given Santa Anita’s documented speed bias.
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario suggests honest fractions with Wishtheyallcouldbe likely establishing clear early position based on demonstrated frontrunning capabilities. The presence of additional tactical speed types creates honest rather than slow pace dynamics, though genuine pressure appears unlikely given the moderate speed signatures throughout the field. Santa Anita’s documented preference for early-positioned horses in dirt sprints creates advantage for speed types.
Projected opening quarter fractions of 22.2-22.4 with half-mile splits around 45.1-45.3 represent manageable tempo that allows pressing types to remain competitive while preventing pure stalkers or closers from gaining significant ground. The final time projection of 1:16.2-1:16.4 represents solid class for this starter optional claiming condition, creating fair test of speed, class, and determination.
Key Contenders
Wishtheyallcouldbe exits a sharp 2.25-length victory over this course and distance on December 28, demonstrating clear superiority over a bulky field at this class level. The eight-year-old mare by Grazen goes first off the claim for trainer Ryan Hanson, though statistical analysis reveals this barn converts new acquisitions at just two percent over the past five years, creating concern about the immediate impact.
However, the mare’s recent dominant performance and established course-and-distance form override typical first-off-claim statistics. The victory margin and speed figures indicate clear class advantage over today’s competition when performing at peak ability. The mare’s frontrunning or pressing style fits Santa Anita’s speed-favoring bias perfectly, and the eight-year veteran’s experience provides tactical understanding of racing fundamentals.
Morning line odds of 6-5 reflect public awareness of the recent victory and course-and-distance credentials, though the probability of repeating that performance justifies favoritism. Jockey Edwin Maldonado’s 11 percent meet statistics with 40 percent in-the-money prove acceptable for this assignment. The combination of recent form, tactical speed, and course familiarity creates strong winning profile despite trainer statistics suggesting caution with new acquisitions.
Emirates Affair brings quality credentials but exits veterinary scratch from December 14 and also-eligible status from January 9, creating uncertainty about current condition. The eight-year-old mare demonstrates quality when fit and healthy, though the recent scratches suggest potential physical issues. Trainer Robert Hess maintains smaller stable but shows attention to proper placement when horses reach optimal fitness.
The mare’s established class and competitive speed figures suggest live contender if fully recovered from whatever caused recent scratches. The distance relief from previous route attempts fits the mare’s tactical speed profile, and inside post position provides early positioning advantage. Jockey Hector Isaac Berrios’s 30 percent meet win rate establishes elite pilot credentials.
Secondary Choices
Thirsty Trickster adds Lasix while making the fourth start for trainer Jeff Mullins, who operates at 29 percent with 57 percent in-the-money at the current meet. The four-year-old filly shows early speed capabilities but faces questions about consistency and class against these rivals. The medication addition could provide physical improvement, and Mullins’s high-percentage training suggests proper conditioning and placement.
Don’t Ju Forget brings veteran experience at this class level with established competitive ability. The seven-year-old mare demonstrates tactical versatility and determination in claiming ranks, though recent form shows inconsistency. Trainer George Papaprodromou’s 22 percent meet statistics with 41 percent in-the-money establish competent conditioning.
Selections
Win: Wishtheyallcouldbe
Place: Emirates Affair
Show: Thirsty Trickster
Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming 1-1/8 Miles Turf
Post Time: 3:34 PM
Fillies and mares face allowance conditions or $50,000 claiming option in this competitive turf route that tests stamina, class, and tactical awareness. The full field of ten creates traffic concerns and emphasizes the importance of securing favorable position through the early stages while maintaining closing punch for the stretch run.
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario appears honest to moderate with no dominant early speed type likely to establish significant separation. Multiple fillies and mares show mid-pack positioning tendencies, creating gradual pace development rather than aggressive early battles. The 1-1/8-mile distance provides ample time for tactical maneuvering and multiple strategic approaches.
Projected fractions of 24.2-24.4 for the opening quarter and 48.2-48.6 for the half-mile represent comfortable early tempo suitable for this class level. The pace setup accommodates both early-positioned types who can rate kindly and late-runners who can close into honest fractions. Final time projections of 1:47.4-1:48.2 represent appropriate allowance class on firm turf with the rail at 20 feet, creating fair test across running styles.
Key Contenders
Willa T brings tactical versatility and trainer Tim Yakteen’s current hot form to this competitive assignment. The five-year-old mare makes the second start off layoff, often a key improvement angle as horses round into peak fitness after initial return effort. The non-winner weight allowance of two pounds provides modest relief to 122 pounds. Yakteen operates at 25 percent with 33 percent in-the-money through limited starts at the current meet.
The mare’s running style as a mid-pack type allows flexibility in tactical execution depending on pace development. Jockey Kazushi Kimura can position the mare in the second flight through early running before launching a sustained rally approaching the stretch. The 1-1/8-mile distance fits the mare’s stamina and closing punch, and turf breeding suggests comfort on grass surfaces.
Morning line odds of 7-2 suggest public perception of legitimate winning chances, though the probability model ranks the mare as the selection in this competitive field. The combination of improving fitness, tactical flexibility, and connections in form creates reasonable confidence for top selection despite competitive opposition.
Take A Breath (GB) brings British breeding and trainer Mark Glatt’s meet-leading 26 percent win rate with 63 percent in-the-money statistics to this assignment. The four-year-old filly by Kingman stretches out in distance while making the allowance attempt, suggesting connections view the filly as ready for increased demands. Glatt’s current meet-leading position establishes credible trainer form, and the barn’s success with turf routes creates confidence in proper preparation.
The British breeding through Kingman provides stamina for the 1-1/8-mile distance, and European-bred runners often show particular comfort navigating Santa Anita’s turf configuration. Jockey Emisael Jaramillo brings tactical awareness and finishing ability to the partnership. The filly’s probability metrics and connections create legitimate contender status, potentially challenging for victory if tactical execution proves optimal.
Secondary Choices
Royal Charter (GB) makes the turf route attempt for trainer Jeff Mullins, who operates at 29 percent with 57 percent in-the-money at the current meet. The British-bred six-year-old mare by Kingman shows established turf credentials and class, though recent form requires improvement to challenge the top selections. The mare’s experience and breeding create competitiveness, and Mullins’s high-percentage conditioning suggests proper preparation.
Angelic Appeal (IRE) brings international pedigree for trainer Philip D’Amato, whose 12 percent meet win rate with 45 percent in-the-money establishes credibility. The six-year-old Irish-bred mare demonstrates closing style that could benefit from honest early fractions. Morning line odds of 12-1 suggest the mare may provide exotic wagering value if pace dynamics create favorable setup for late-running types.
Selections
Win: Willa T
Place: Take A Breath (GB)
Show: Royal Charter (GB)
Race 8 – La Canada Stakes (G3) 1-1/16 Miles Dirt
Post Time: 4:04 PM
The featured Grade 3 La Canada Stakes for older fillies and mares going 1-1/16 miles on the main track creates the day’s most significant betting interest. The race features a fascinating tactical duel between trainer Bob Baffert’s Brilliantly and Doug O’Neill’s So There She Was, both stretching out to two turns while seeking class validation at the graded stakes level.
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario appears tactical with multiple early-positioned types likely securing forward placement through the opening stages. Brilliantly demonstrates early tactical speed and should establish position from the outside draw, while So There She Was showed forward positioning in previous two-turn efforts. The presence of these key contenders plus additional speed signatures suggests honest early fractions without pace meltdown.
Projected opening quarter fractions of 23.3-23.4 with half-mile splits around 47.1-47.3 represent appropriate tempo for graded stakes fillies and mares at this distance. The pace setup accommodates both early-positioned types who can rate kindly and mid-pack runners who can track reasonable fractions before engaging. Final time projections of 1:42.2-1:42.4 represent competitive graded stakes class, creating legitimate test of quality, stamina, and determination.
Key Contenders
Brilliantly brings the credentials of trainer Bob Baffert’s powerhouse barn and re-adds blinkers for the two-turn debut on dirt. The four-year-old filly by Uncle Mo finished ahead of So There She Was in the Grade 1 La Brea going seven furlongs on December 28, though the sprint distance and single-turn configuration differed significantly from today’s two-turn route. The filly has never attempted two turns on dirt, though she did earn a front-running maiden victory going one mile on turf in March.
Baffert operates at 23 percent with 50 percent in-the-money at the current meet, maintaining elite conditioning standards despite recent federal troubles. The blinkers-on angle signals tactical sharpening, as the filly previously wore the equipment for her first two starts including the turf maiden victory. Jockey Juan Hernandez brings meet-leading 24 percent win rate and tactical excellence to the partnership.
The key question centers on stamina for two turns on dirt at 1-1/16 miles, a significant unknown for a filly who has primarily competed in sprint distances. The Uncle Mo sire line provides versatility and class, and the filly’s early tactical speed allows securing favorable position without expending excessive energy. Morning line odds of 7-5 reflect public confidence in Baffert’s judgment regarding distance placement, though the untested two-turn configuration creates legitimate uncertainty.
So There She Was brings proven two-turn credentials and trainer Doug O’Neill’s current hot form to this assignment. The four-year-old filly by Munnings won the Remington Park Oaks at 1-1/16 miles and was narrowly beaten in the Grade 3 Torrey Pines going one mile at Del Mar, demonstrating clear comfort at route distances. The return to two turns provides critical advantage compared to recent sprint attempts where the filly’s large frame created slow-breaking disadvantages.
O’Neill operates at 22 percent with 41 percent in-the-money at the current meet, establishing solid current form. The trainer’s confidence in the distance placement proves evident through public comments emphasizing the filly’s improvement when stretching out. “She’s such a big filly, that the starts sprinting might be a little bit of a challenge for her. But going two turns, her normal break should put her right there in a better position,” O’Neill stated.
Jockey Emisael Jaramillo takes over the mount for the first time, bringing fresh tactical perspective after Mirco Demuro rode in the Malibu. The running style showing forward placement through early stages of previous two-turn races creates tactical advantage, allowing the filly to secure comfortable position tracking any early pressure before engaging in the stretch. Morning line odds of 9-5 reflect reasonable value given the filly’s proven two-turn success and O’Neill’s hot barn form.
Secondary Choices
Nafisa represents Baffert’s second entry with a two-race winning streak providing momentum. The five-year-old mare by Arrogate attempts her first graded stakes appearance after conquering allowance competition. The progression from allowance to graded stakes represents significant class jump, though Baffert’s historical success preparing horses for such attempts creates credibility.
Jockey Kazushi Kimura’s 17 percent meet statistics prove acceptable, though the pilot’s patient style may not fit a race where early positioning proves critical. The mare’s late-running tendencies create pace dependency, requiring honest early fractions between Brilliantly and So There She Was to set up the closing rally. If those two engage in tactical pressure through the middle stages, Nafisa could benefit from a favorable pace collapse scenario.
Jane Austen brings quality credentials and trainer Mark Glatt’s meet-leading statistics to this competitive assignment. The five-year-old mare demonstrates consistent competitiveness in graded company, though she has struggled to secure victories against the highest-level competition. Glatt’s 26 percent win rate with 63 percent in-the-money establishes elite conditioning, and jockey Abel Lezcano provides skilled tactical execution.
Selections
Win: So There She Was
Place: Brilliantly
Show: Nafisa
Race 9 – Allowance Optional Claiming 6 Furlongs Turf
Post Time: 4:34 PM
California-bred and California-sired fillies and mares compete in this turf sprint that combines allowance conditions with $20,000 claiming option. The restricted conditions create competitive balance, while the six-furlong turf distance from the backstretch chute provides fair test of early speed, tactical positioning, and closing punch.
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario appears contentious with multiple early speed types likely battling for position through the opening furlongs. Christel Clean, Goodnight Nellie, and Danzing Flyer all demonstrate frontrunning or pressing tendencies, creating potential for honest to pressured early fractions. The turf sprint configuration with rail at 20 feet favors inside-drawn horses who can save ground while maintaining tactical flexibility.
Projected opening quarter fractions of 21.4-21.3 suggest genuine early speed, with the half-mile potentially reaching 44.1-44.3 before horses enter the stretch. The pace setup creates potential for late-running value if the expected speed duel materializes, though the six-furlong distance provides limited time for sustained rallies. Final time projections of 1:07.4-1:08.0 represent competitive class for this California-bred/sired allowance optional claiming condition.
Key Contenders
Christel Clean brings perfect consistency with in-the-money finishes in all five career starts including two victories. The four-year-old filly by Violence shows 24-48-71 percent probability metrics from sophisticated modeling, indicating strong confidence based on multiple handicapping factors. The filly’s recent victory at Del Mar going 6.5 furlongs on dirt demonstrated class and determination, and the switch to turf today should pose no difficulty given adequate grass pedigree through both Violence and the broodmare sire.
Trainer John Sadler operates at 31 percent with 61 percent in-the-money over substantial sample size, establishing elite conditioning standards. The combination with jockey Hector Isaac Berrios, who rides at 30 percent for the current meet, creates powerful partnership given their proven tactical understanding. The filly’s early tactical speed allows securing favorable position from any post, and the inside draw in post four provides ground-saving advantage with the rail at 20 feet.
The California-bred condition ensures appropriate class level without facing tougher open-company runners. Recent workouts indicate peak fitness and sharpness, and the filly’s progressive improvement through five starts suggests continued development rather than peaked form. Morning line odds of 3-1 suggest reasonable value given the filly’s consistency, connections, and tactical advantages.
Fancy Facts switches to turf after recent dirt efforts for trainer Mike Puype, who operates at 14 percent with 50 percent in-the-money over substantial sample size. The four-year-old filly shows tactical positioning flexibility as a mid-pack leader, creating multiple strategic approaches depending on pace development. The non-winner weight allowance provides two-pound relief to 122 pounds.
The switch to turf represents critical surface change that could unlock improved performance if the filly shows grass aptitude. Recent form suggests competitiveness without domination, indicating the filly remains capable of improvement with proper surface placement. Jockey Kazushi Kimura’s 17 percent meet statistics prove acceptable, and the combination of surface change and tactical flexibility creates legitimate contender status.
Secondary Choices
Goodnight Nellie brings tactical speed for trainer Andy Mathis’s smaller barn. The five-year-old mare demonstrates fast-leads running style perfectly suited to Santa Anita’s documented speed bias. The mare’s recent victory at a different configuration demonstrates current form and fitness, though the California-bred condition represents typical class level for the horse.
The early speed capabilities create potential for securing clear early position, particularly if other speed types engage in mutual pressure battles. However, the mare’s front-running style becomes vulnerable if forced to engage in prolonged speed duels with Christel Clean and others. Jockey Juan Hernandez provides elite piloting at 24 percent for the meet, potentially maximizing the mare’s chances through tactical excellence.
Shezmisbehaving brings veteran experience with 40 career starts producing six victories. The seven-year-old mare demonstrates deep-closing running style as the fastest deep type in the field. Trainer Jorge Gutierrez operates smaller stable but shows attention to proper placement. The mare’s closing style creates pace dependency, requiring honest or pressured early fractions to set up the late rally.
Selections
Win: Christel Clean
Place: Fancy Facts
Show: Goodnight Nellie
Jockey Notes and Insights
Juan Hernandez continues to dominate the Santa Anita jockey standings with a 24 percent win rate and 62 percent in-the-money performance through the first two weeks of racing. The 31-year-old rider earned Jockey of the Week honors for January 5-11 after capturing three stakes races, including victories in the Robert J. Frankel (G3) aboard Paradise Lake, the Santa Ynez Stakes with Explora, and the Las Cienegas Stakes (G3) on Queen Maxima. Hernandez’s tremendous pace judgment and finishing ability make him a standout pilot whose mounts deserve extra attention, particularly when paired with quality trainers like Bob Baffert, Mark Glatt, and Doug O’Neill.
Hector Isaac Berrios ranks among the meet’s top riders with a 30 percent win rate through limited starts, establishing himself as an elite pilot whose tactical awareness and finishing strength warrant respect. Berrios excels with early-speed types who can secure favorable position, and his combination with quality trainers produces outstanding results. The rider’s mount selection today includes several logical contenders, making his assignments worth noting for exacta and trifecta wagering.
Victor Espinoza returned to California after struggling through the second half of 2025 based in New York and Kentucky, where he managed just nine wins from 77 starts. The 53-year-old Hall of Famer has improved dramatically in 2026 with two victories from seven starts (29 percent), though the limited sample size creates uncertainty about sustained success. Espinoza’s mount on Victorious Dream (IRE) in Race 5 represents a quality assignment where his experience and tactical skill could prove decisive.
Abel Lezcano brings solid credentials with quality mount selection and tactical awareness. The rider’s 11 percent meet win rate with 35 percent in-the-money performance over 37 starts establishes acceptable competency. Lezcano excels in route races where tactical patience and positioning prove critical, making his assignments on A Day to Remember (Race 3) and Jane Austen (Race 8) potentially significant for exotic wagering strategies.
Kazushi Kimura maintains consistent presence with 17 percent win rate and 42 percent in-the-money performance over 45 starts at the current meet. The rider demonstrates patience with late-running types and tactical awareness in turf routes, making him a reliable choice for horses requiring ground-saving trips and sustained rallies. Kimura’s multiple mounts today include several logical contenders in competitive races.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Mark Glatt leads the trainer standings with seven victories from 27 starts (26 percent) and 63 percent in-the-money performance through January 11. Glatt earned the top trainer title at the previous Santa Anita meet (December 26, 2024 through April 6, 2025) with 31 wins from 122 starts, establishing sustained excellence at this circuit. The Washington-born trainer excels with turf runners and tactical speed types, making his assignments today highly significant for handicapping purposes. Glatt’s horses deserve particular attention in allowance and claiming races where his conditioning produces peak form.
Bob Baffert operates at 23 percent with 50 percent in-the-money through 26 starts at the current meet, maintaining elite standards despite recent federal troubles. The Hall of Fame trainer targets major stakes races and demonstrates particular excellence with two-turn dirt routes and turf sprints. Baffert’s three entries in the La Canada Stakes create fascinating tactical dynamics, though Brilliantly appears the primary betting interest based on public odds and tactical deployment. The barn’s success rate with equipment changes, particularly blinkers additions, warrants attention when evaluating horse improvement potential.
Doug O’Neill posts 22 percent wins with 41 percent in-the-money through 27 starts at the current meet, establishing solid form heading into the La Canada Stakes with So There She Was. The trainer won the Kentucky Derby twice (2012 with I’ll Have Another and 2016 with Nyquist), demonstrating elite-level ability when horses peak for major assignments. O’Neill excels with developing three-year-olds and fillies stretching out in distance, making his deployment of So There She Was particularly significant given the filly’s proven two-turn credentials.
Jeff Mullins operates at 29 percent with 57 percent in-the-money through 14 starts, establishing hot form over limited sample size. The trainer’s success rate suggests horses arrive at peak fitness for assignments, making his entries worthy of attention particularly in turf routes and allowance races. Mullins demonstrates skill identifying proper class levels and tactical deployments that maximize horse abilities.
Philip D’Amato maintains 24 percent wins with 53 percent in-the-money through 17 starts at the current meet. The trainer excels with turf runners, particularly European-bred imports making American debuts or early career attempts. D’Amato’s success with first-time starters warrants attention when the barn enters previously unraced horses, as sophisticated training methods and patient development create competitive advantages.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The Santa Anita card offers diverse wagering opportunities across multiple bet types, though certain races present particularly attractive value propositions based on pace dynamics, bias analysis, and horse deployment strategies. Early Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequences provide substantial return potential given the presence of live longshots in opening races combined with logical favorites in the La Canada Stakes.
Race 1 presents competitive claiming dynamics where Player B appears vulnerable as the consensus favorite at expected odds below 2-1. Billy Joe Shaver adds blinkers while cutting back to sprint distance, creating equipment angle combined with tactical speed that could produce upset at 7-2 or higher odds. The Old Nine (IRE) provides late-running exotic value if early pace heats up between the favorite and Billy Joe Shaver.
The Early Pick 4 spanning Races 1-4 offers attractive structure with Race 1 vulnerability, Race 2 potentially chalky favorite in One Step Beyond, Race 3 presenting legitimate favorite in A Day to Remember, and Race 4 featuring track specialist Auditory against smaller field. Suggested ticket structure: Race 1 (Player B, Billy Joe Shaver, The Old Nine) / Race 2 (One Step Beyond, Golden Chaser) / Race 3 (A Day to Remember, Burning Rubber) / Race 4 (Auditory, Rousing Jewel) = $12 investment for 2x2x2x2 coverage.
Race 5’s maiden special weight on turf creates uncertainty perfect for exotic wagering value. Victorious Dream (IRE) appears logical favorite given McCarthy barn success and equipment additions, though maiden races produce longshot winners at higher rates than other race classifications. Suggested exacta box: Victorious Dream (IRE), Island Home, Inbox (GB), Channel Place = $12 investment for four-horse box capturing potential upset scenarios while protecting chalk if the favorite dominates.
The La Canada Stakes (Race 8) anchors multiple Pick 3 and Pick 4 sequences where So There She Was provides value against Brilliantly favoritism. The O’Neill-trained filly’s proven two-turn credentials and tactical advantages suggest higher probability than 9-5 morning line odds indicate. Suggested win bet: So There She Was $40 to win, exacta box So There She Was/Brilliantly $20 = $60 total investment protecting both logical outcomes while emphasizing the value selection.
Late Pick 3 spanning Races 7-9 offers attractive structure with Race 7 competitive turf route, Race 8 La Canada Stakes featuring two logical favorites, and Race 9 sprint with multiple speed types. Suggested ticket: Race 7 (Willa T, Take A Breath, Royal Charter, Angelic Appeal) / Race 8 (So There She Was, Brilliantly, Nafisa) / Race 9 (Christel Clean, Fancy Facts, Goodnight Nellie) = $36 investment for 4x3x3 coverage capturing value scenarios while protecting chalk outcomes.
Horizontal exotic strategies prove effective at Santa Anita given full fields and competitive balance. Race 7’s ten-horse turf route creates trifecta and superfecta value where multiple running styles remain viable. Suggested trifecta key: Willa T with Take A Breath, Royal Charter, Angelic Appeal, Resolve, Corporal Violette for all positions = $30 investment capturing primary selection while spreading secondary positions broadly.
Single-race strategies should emphasize early speed types in dirt sprints given Santa Anita’s documented 56-58 percent bias favoring early-positioned horses. Auditory in Race 4 and Wishtheyallcouldbe in Race 6 both present frontrunning or pressing styles combined with course-and-distance credentials that warrant confident win betting at reasonable odds. Suggested win bets: Auditory $40 to win, Wishtheyallcouldbe $40 to win = $80 total investment on horses with clear tactical advantages and proven venue success.
Longshot value hunting requires identifying horses with legitimate winning probability trading at inflated odds due to public perception errors. Take A Breath (GB) in Race 7 offers British breeding and Mark Glatt’s hot barn at potential 4-1 or higher odds, creating value overlay when probability analysis suggests closer to 3-1 fair odds. Suggested exacta key: Take A Breath with Willa T, Royal Charter, Angelic Appeal, Resolve for first and second positions = $16 investment capturing the value overlay while protecting against favorite scenarios.
Daily Double sequences connecting competitive races create multiplication value where selecting two winners at modest odds produces substantial returns. Races 7-8 Daily Double offers turf route connecting to the La Canada Stakes, where Willa T (7-2) connecting with So There She Was (9-5) produces approximately 8-1 combined payout. Suggested Daily Double: Willa T, Take A Breath / So There She Was, Brilliantly = $8 investment protecting multiple logical outcomes while emphasizing value combinations.
Place and show betting deserves consideration in short fields where odds compression creates value for minor awards. Race 3’s five-horse turf sprint and Race 4’s six-horse dirt sprint both present short-field dynamics where show betting on legitimate contenders produces acceptable returns with reduced risk. Suggested show bets: A Day to Remember $20 to show in Race 3, Auditory $20 to show in Race 4 = $40 total investment capturing high-probability minor award outcomes.
Rolling exotic strategies maximize bankroll efficiency by reinvesting profits from early sequence wins into later races with higher payoff potential. Suggested approach: Early Pick 4 (Races 1-4) initial investment $12, if successful roll 50 percent of profit into Pick 3 (Races 7-9) while banking remaining profit as guaranteed return. This conservative approach captures upside potential while protecting bankroll through guaranteed profit banking.
The Coast to Coast Pick 5 connecting Gulfstream Park’s final three races with Santa Anita’s Races 7-9 offers substantial carryover dynamics and cross-country wagering appeal. This exotic requires careful analysis of both venues’ racing dynamics, with suggested Santa Anita portion: Race 7 (Willa T, Take A Breath, Royal Charter, Angelic Appeal) / Race 8 (So There She Was, Brilliantly, Nafisa, Jane Austen) / Race 9 (Christel Clean, Fancy Facts, Goodnight Nellie, Shezmisbehaving) combined with Gulfstream selections based on separate analysis.
Value plays emerge throughout the card where horses show winning probability exceeding their anticipated public odds. Billy Joe Shaver (Race 1) at projected 7-2 or higher, Burning Rubber (Race 3) at projected 2-1, So There She Was (Race 8) at 9-5, and Fancy Facts (Race 9) at projected 7-2 all represent situations where fundamental handicapping suggests higher probability than odds indicate. Suggested exacta boxes incorporating these value horses: Race 1 Billy Joe Shaver/Player B $10, Race 3 Burning Rubber/A Day to Remember $10, Race 8 So There She Was/Brilliantly $20, Race 9 Fancy Facts/Christel Clean $10 = $50 total investment emphasizing value combinations.
The optimal wagering approach balances risk management through diversified bet types while concentrating capital on highest-confidence selections and value overlays. Suggested daily bankroll allocation: 40 percent win/place/show betting on highest-confidence horses (Auditory Race 4, Wishtheyallcouldbe Race 6, So There She Was Race 8), 30 percent exacta/trifecta horizontal exotics in competitive races (Races 1, 5, 7, 9), 30 percent Pick 3/Pick 4/Pick 5 vertical exotics capturing sequence value. This allocation protects bankroll through win betting on logical favorites while capturing exotic payoff potential through structured sequence and horizontal wagering.
