Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Sam Houston Race Park presents a challenging eight-race card on Sunday, January 25, 2026, featuring a diverse mix of maiden races, claiming events, and allowance contests across both dirt and turf surfaces. The card includes Texas-bred allowance races alongside open company maiden events, creating opportunities for both local competitors and out-of-state shippers. Hall of Fame trainer Steven Asmussen dominates the card with multiple live chances throughout the afternoon, while leading jockey Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez continues his hot early-season form.
Winter weather systems moving through Southeast Texas create additional complexity for handicappers. Recent precipitation and fluctuating temperatures demand close attention to track surface conditions and their evolution throughout the racing program.
Weather and Track Conditions
Extreme winter weather dominates Sunday’s racing conditions at Sam Houston Race Park. The main dirt track has been officially listed as sloppy, with temperatures hovering near freezing throughout the racing day. Morning temperatures started around 25 degrees Fahrenheit, climbing only to approximately 39 degrees by afternoon. Mixed precipitation including rain, freezing rain, and light snow moved through the Houston metropolitan area during early morning hours.
The sloppy main track creates significant tactical advantages for horses with closing ability and tactical speed. Moisture on the racing surface typically produces a tiring effect that penalizes pure front-runners while rewarding horses capable of sustained late rallies. Wind conditions around 16 miles per hour with gusts approaching 26 miles per hour add another challenging element, creating racing surfaces that evolve throughout the day.
Turf course conditions warrant careful monitoring for Races 2, 5, and 8. The rail placement at 30 feet creates a widened racing surface that potentially benefits outside runners, though wet conditions may favor horses with proven form on yielding or soft turf.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Sam Houston’s main dirt track generally plays fairly in sprint distances under one mile. Early 2026 statistics reveal post position two winning at 22.22 percent, post four at 22.22 percent, and post six leading all positions at 25 percent for races under one mile. The rail post won zero races from nine starters during opening weekend, suggesting inside assignments faced challenges in early 2026.
Outside posts nine and ten performed exceptionally well at 22.03 percent and 24.29 percent respectively during the 2025 meet. The pronounced advantage for outside posts suggests horses breaking from far outside gates gain tactical positioning advantages approaching the first turn, particularly in fields with genuine early speed.
When moisture affects the main track, Sam Houston develops a tiring racing surface favoring closers and pressers over pure front-runners. This bias manifests particularly on sloppy or muddy tracks, where early pace horses struggle to maintain position through the stretch drive. On turf, the course has been playing to stalkers and closers recently, with post position four showing exceptional results in turf routes.
Race 1 – Texas-Bred Allowance | 1:00 PM | 7 Furlongs Dirt
Key Contenders: Burning Hess (4-5) emerges as the morning line favorite with strong recent form and outside post six providing clear running room. WMA Wild Kisses brings a January 4 victory at this distance and carries only 118 pounds with Daniel Benavides riding.
Secondary Choices: WMA Madjic Slippers shows recent improvement for Rita Deleon. Majd Storm finished third last time and represents the Deleon barn again.
Pace Analysis: Moderate pace scenario with multiple speed types. Sloppy track conditions favor closers and stalkers over wire-to-wire speed types.
Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight Turf | 1:27 PM | 1 Mile 70 Yards
Key Contenders: Zilarro represents Steven Asmussen after narrowly missing last time with Keith Asmussen riding from post nine. Baker Hayfield brings consistent form for Austin Gustafson with Rene Diaz aboard from post two. Buck O Five adds another Asmussen entry with Erik Asmussen riding from post three.
Secondary Choices: Friday Night Fever represents trainer Ronnie Cravens III. Enigma Code brings experience as a five-year-old.
Pace Analysis: Moderate pace with several horses possessing tactical speed. The one-mile 70-yard distance provides ample time for tactical positioning and stretch-running moves.
Race 3 – Maiden Claiming | 1:54 PM | 6 Furlongs Dirt
Key Contenders: Skelly Road represents Steven Asmussen with Erik Asmussen riding from post three, bringing Hall of Fame training connections. Spunoutofmymind draws post two for trainer Ronnie Cravens III with Cerapio Figueroa. Mischievous Intent represents Cravens with leading rider Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez from post five.
Secondary Choices: Cody the Kid draws favorable post four. Cause Mimi Said brings established jockey-trainer combination.
Pace Analysis: Multiple horses possess early speed, suggesting contested early fractions. Sloppy track favors horses with sustained closing ability.
Race 4 – Texas-Bred Maiden Claiming | 2:21 PM | 5.5 Furlongs Dirt
Key Contenders: Major Ortiz emerges as consensus selection at 6-5 after stepping down in class with Stewart Elliott. Oklahoma Flame draws the rail for trainer Jayde Gelner with leading rider Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez. One Deal represents trainer Cesar Govea with Cerapio Figueroa from post five.
Secondary Choices: Preacherman brings youth advantage. Hank Ridge seeks breakthrough performance.
Pace Analysis: Several horses capable of showing early speed. Abbreviated 5.5-furlong distance makes early positioning absolutely critical.
Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight Fillies Turf | 2:48 PM | 5 Furlongs Turf
Key Contenders: Braken Good represents Steven Asmussen with Keith Asmussen from post six. Volatile Nite draws post three for trainer Ronnie Cravens III. Sense of Awe represents trainer Danny Pish with Lane Luzzi from post four.
Secondary Choices: Wolfberry draws the rail for Austin Gustafson. Oldfashlovesong adds Gustafson representation.
Pace Analysis: Five-furlong turf sprint creates pure speed test. Multiple fillies possess tactical speed without blazing early pace.
Race 6 – Claiming Sprint | 3:15 PM | 5 Furlongs Dirt
Key Contenders: Halmstad emerges as consensus selection at 5-2 for trainer Karen Jacks with Floyd Wethey Jr. Take Action represents trainer J.R. Caldwell with Rene Diaz from post four. Rockets Red Flair draws post five for trainer Danny Pish with Lane Luzzi.
Secondary Choices: Straight Luck represents Danny Pish with Weston Hamilton. Sunday Bling brings experience.
Pace Analysis: Contested opening quarters likely as multiple horses show early speed. Five-furlong distance provides minimal recovery time.
Race 7 – Allowance Sprint | 3:42 PM | 6 Furlongs Dirt
Key Contenders: Faustin emerges as overwhelming favorite at 4-5 for trainer Austin Gustafson with Ramon Vazquez from post one. Innovator represents Steven Asmussen with Keith Asmussen from post five. Copper Storm draws post two for trainer Ronnie Cravens III with leading rider Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez.
Secondary Choices: Dutch Mills gives Asmussen two chances. Noble Eagle represents trainer Carlos Padilla.
Pace Analysis: Multiple horses possess early speed credentials suggesting honest tempo. Six-furlong distance provides adequate time for pace to become factor.
Race 8 – Maiden Special Weight Fillies Turf | 4:09 PM | 1 Mile 70 Yards
Key Contenders: Hattie Jane represents Steven Asmussen with Erik Asmussen from post six. Sugar Hill adds another Asmussen entry with Keith Asmussen. Lookatthatgirlrun represents trainer Ronnie Cravens III with leading rider Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez.
Secondary Choices: Pretty Dang Fast draws the rail for Ronnie Cravens III. Her Majesty brings experience for trainer Rob Atras.
Pace Analysis: Multiple fillies possess tactical speed without confirmed early pace pressers. One-mile 70-yard distance provides ample time for tactical positioning.
Key Trainer and Jockey Insights
Steven Asmussen dominates with 1,032 career Sam Houston victories and entries throughout Sunday’s card. Through early 2026, Asmussen shows 13.33 percent win rate with 26.67 percent in-the-money finishes, maintaining elite standards.
Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez leads early jockey standings with five victories and exceptional 36 percent win rate during opening weekend. His tactical riding style suits Sam Houston’s fair main track, allowing favorable position without excessive energy expenditure.
Weston Hamilton ranks second with four early victories and 43 percent win rate, with his five-pound apprentice allowance creating significant advantages in competitive fields.
Ronnie Cravens III maintains respectable 14.06 percent strike rate at Sam Houston with consistent competitiveness across claiming and allowance divisions. His patient approach creates value opportunities with improving maiden runners.
Danny Pish demonstrates four early victories and excellent ability identifying undervalued claimers. His operation excels in short sprints where runners show sharp gate speed.
Austin Gustafson captured three early victories with particular effectiveness with turf runners and quality maiden development.
Floyd Wethey Jr. shows solid 16.71 percent Sam Houston win rate with 117 career victories. Lane Luzzi demonstrates excellent 20.91 percent Sam Houston win rate with particular effectiveness when paired with Danny Pish trainees.
