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Welcome to Delta Downs for a Thursday evening card featuring 8 races. The program highlights Louisiana-bred talent with several allowance and claiming contests. The card begins at 4:45 PM CT. A key feature of the meet so far has been the dominance of early speed, particularly in sprints, and bettors should pay close attention to the track profile which has heavily favored front-runners in recent weeks.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Vinton, Louisiana, calls for sunny skies with a high of 59°F and a low of 36°F. Winds will be out of the northwest at approximately 10 mph. Humidity is expected to be around 55%. Given the clear weather, the track condition is expected to be Fast.
Track Bias: The dirt surface at Delta Downs has shown a distinct profile during the current meet.
- 5 Furlongs: There is a strong bias toward early speed (recently 58% wire-to-wire winners). Outside posts have performed better than the rail at this distance.
- 6 1/2 Furlongs: Speed is still dangerous, but the rail and inside posts have a significant statistical advantage compared to the shorter sprints.
- 1 Mile: The rail and middle posts are generally preferred, and early speed remains a potent weapon.
1st Race – Delta Downs
Post Time
04:45 PM CT
Pace Analysis
In this 6 1/2 furlong maiden claiming sprint, expect a scramble for the lead. Charismatic Sailor, breaking from the rail, will likely be sent hard by the Gonzalez barn to utilize the inside post advantage. Dirty Deal and Everlovingmo also possess enough tactical speed to press the pace.
Key Contenders
Charismatic Sailor (1) looks to be the one to beat. Drawing the rail at 6 1/2 furlongs is a major advantage on this track, and trainer Isai Gonzalez has decent numbers with young horses. If he breaks clean, he could wire this field.
Dirty Deal (7) partners with top jockey Timothy Thornton. While the outside post is less favorable at this distance, Thornton’s aggressive riding style should have him in contention early.
Secondary Choices
Everlovingmo (2) represents the high-percentage Juan Larrosa stable. Larrosa is currently second in the trainer standings, and this horse fits well at this claiming level.
Longshots
Midnight Coal (8) is an interesting price play if the pace collapses, though the outside post is a hurdle.
Betting Strategy
Focus on the rail speed. A win bet on Charismatic Sailor is the primary play. Use Dirty Deal and Everlovingmo in exactas.
Selections
Win: Charismatic Sailor (1) – 35% confidence
Place: Dirty Deal (7) – 25% confidence
Show: Everlovingmo (2) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Midnight Coal (8) – 10% confidence
2nd Race – Delta Downs
Post Time
05:13 PM CT
Pace Analysis
This 5-furlong dash favors outside posts. Clearly Credo and Gabe’s Possum are likely to show speed. With the bias favoring the outside at this distance, look for horses breaking from middle-to-outside to get the best trips.
Key Contenders
Clearly Credo (5) gets the call here with leading rider Vicente Del-Cid aboard for the Larrosa barn. Del-Cid and Larrosa are a lethal combination at this meet (hitting at high percentages together). The 4-year-old filly faces boys but has the speed to clear.
Gabe’s Possum (6) draws well outside the speed and should sit a perfect stalking trip.
Secondary Choices
El Dan (1) draws the rail, which can be tricky at 5 furlongs if he doesn’t break sharply. However, he drops in to a competitive spot.
Longshots
Running Ragged (11) is on the Also-Eligible list, but if he draws in, he becomes a major contender with Tim Thornton named to ride.
Betting Strategy
Bet Clearly Credo to win. Box Clearly Credo and Gabe’s Possum in exactas.
Selections
Win: Clearly Credo (5) – 40% confidence
Place: Gabe’s Possum (6) – 25% confidence
Show: El Dan (1) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Running Ragged (11) – 10% confidence
3rd Race – Delta Downs
Post Time
05:41 PM CT
Pace Analysis
Another 5-furlong sprint for maidens. Zyanaro and Auston Got Even look to be the primary speed. The short run to the turn requires a sharp break.
Key Contenders
Auston Got Even (3) picks up Tim Thornton. In a race lacking depth, the jockey upgrade is significant. He should be forwardly placed throughout.
Zyanaro (1) draws the rail. While the rail is less advantageous at 5 furlongs, his natural speed makes him a threat to lead all the way if he clears the field early.
Secondary Choices
Cabanabobanna (7) offers some value from an outside post.
Betting Strategy
An exacta box of Auston Got Even and Zyanaro is the safest route here.
Selections
Win: Auston Got Even (3) – 30% confidence
Place: Zyanaro (1) – 25% confidence
Show: Cabanabobanna (7) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Dauntless Star (4) – 10% confidence
4th Race – Delta Downs
Post Time
06:09 PM CT
Pace Analysis
At 6 1/2 furlongs, the inside posts regain the advantage. Unfathomed and Classic Bet are likely to vie for the early lead.
Key Contenders
Unfathomed (3) for the Gonzalez barn looks solid. This 8-year-old veteran knows his way around the track and should get a good trip near the pace.
Classic Bet (1) draws the rail. If he can protect his position, the track bias will help him hold off challengers in the stretch.
Secondary Choices
Solidify (5) is a classy 10-year-old who may find this group to his liking. He will be running late.
Betting Strategy
Lean on the inside runners. Unfathomed is the top selection.
Selections
Win: Unfathomed (3) – 35% confidence
Place: Classic Bet (1) – 25% confidence
Show: Solidify (5) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Incredible Shot (7) – 10% confidence
5th Race – Delta Downs
Post Time
06:37 PM CT
Pace Analysis
This is a two-turn race at 7 1/2 furlongs. The pace should be more moderate. Uxmal and Path to Success are the likely front-runners.
Key Contenders
Uxmal (4) drops in class and has the speed to control the race. David Cohen is a capable rider for this circuit.
Path to Success (5) comes from the Jonathan Wong barn, which strikes at a high percentage. Vicente Del-Cid takes the mount, signaling positive intent.
Secondary Choices
Grunt (1) draws the rail for Brett Brinkman. He saves ground and could be dangerous if the pace slows down.
Betting Strategy
Path to Success offers the best combination of connections and form. Win bet.
Selections
Win: Path to Success (5) – 30% confidence
Place: Uxmal (4) – 25% confidence
Show: Grunt (1) – 20% confidence
Alternative: The Boss Soss (2) – 10% confidence
6th Race – Delta Downs
Post Time
07:05 PM CT
Pace Analysis
The feature allowance race at 6 1/2 furlongs. Yankeestrolgy looks to have serious speed and draws the rail.
Key Contenders
Yankeestrolgy (1) is the horse to beat. With Vicente Del-Cid aboard and the rail post at 6 1/2 furlongs, the setup is perfect for a wire-to-wire performance.
Red Idol (8) is a veteran who fits well here. He will have to overcome the outside post but has the class to do so.
Secondary Choices
Pocketful of Money (7) has been consistent and should be closing in the lane.
Betting Strategy
Yankeestrolgy is a standout single in multi-race wagers.
Selections
Win: Yankeestrolgy (1) – 45% confidence
Place: Red Idol (8) – 20% confidence
Show: Pocketful of Money (7) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Chad’s Flash (4) – 10% confidence
7th Race – Delta Downs
Post Time
07:33 PM CT
Pace Analysis
5 furlongs for fillies and mares. Black Ginger and Approval Rating should show speed.
Key Contenders
Approval Rating (4) is another Wong/Del-Cid runner. That combination alone makes this horse a primary contender in this spot.
Black Ginger (2) should be quick out of the gate and will challenge for the lead early.
Secondary Choices
Beautiful Mischief (6) represents the Brinkman barn and fits on numbers.
Betting Strategy
Exacta box 4-2.
Selections
Win: Approval Rating (4) – 35% confidence
Place: Black Ginger (2) – 25% confidence
Show: Beautiful Mischief (6) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Jilly’s West (7) – 10% confidence
8th Race – Delta Downs
Post Time
08:01 PM CT
Pace Analysis
The nightcap is a 1-mile route. Expect a contested pace with a full field.
Key Contenders
Littlebitofajimmy (1) draws the rail and should save all the ground. In a large field, the shortest trip often wins.
S D’s Takeover (4) has Jansen Melancon aboard and fits this class level well.
Secondary Choices
Toms Lucky Mo (6) and Big Roux (10) are capable of hitting the board at a price.
Betting Strategy
Small win bet on the rail horse, Littlebitofajimmy.
Selections
Win: Littlebitofajimmy (1) – 25% confidence
Place: S D’s Takeover (4) – 20% confidence
Show: Toms Lucky Mo (6) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Big Roux (10) – 10% confidence
Jockey Notes and Insights
Vicente Del-Cid remains the dominant force at Delta Downs. He is currently the leading rider by a significant margin. When he teams up with trainers Juan Larrosa or Jonathan Wong, the win percentage is exceptionally high. Bettors should upgrade any horse he is riding, particularly in sprints.
Timothy Thornton is firmly in second place in the standings and is the go-to rider for aggressive gate speed. He excels on horses that need to be sent hard from the gate.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Allen Landry and Juan Larrosa are battling for the top spot in the trainer standings. Larrosa has been particularly hot with his claimers and lower-level allowance horses.
Jonathan Wong has a smaller sample size but a very high win percentage (over 20%). His horses are almost always “live” when entered, especially when paired with Del-Cid.
Isai Gonzalez runs a high volume of horses and is dangerous in maiden claiming races, often showing speed from the gate.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The most reliable strategy for this card is following the track bias and the “Power Connections.”
Best Bet of the Day: Race 6: Yankeestrolgy (1). The combination of rail post at 6 1/2 furlongs, early speed, and leading rider Vicente Del-Cid creates a scenario with a very high probability of winning.
Best Value Play: Race 2: Gabe’s Possum (6). While Clearly Credo will be the heavy favorite, Gabe’s Possum draws the advantageous outside post for the 5-furlong distance and could pull off an upset or complete a nice exacta at better odds.
Pick 4 Ticket Strategy (Races 5-8): Race 5: 4, 5 Race 6: 1 Race 7: 2, 4 Race 8: 1, 4, 6, 10 Cost: $8.00 for a $0.50 ticket.
