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The Thursday card at Fair Grounds presents a balanced nine-race slate mixing claiming, maiden special weight, and allowance contests. The program features a mix of dirt and turf events, highlighted by a pair of competitive Allowance Optional Claiming races (Race 6 and Race 7) and a deep Maiden Special Weight for three-year-olds on the turf in Race 8. A key storyline for the day is the dominance of the Joe Sharp barn, which leads the trainer standings, and the heated jockey title race between Jose Ortiz and Paco Lopez. The first post is at 12:45 PM CST.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for New Orleans today calls for sunny skies and cool temperatures. Highs are expected to reach 51°F with a low of 37°F. Humidity is moderate at 53%, and winds will be from the northwest at around 13 mph. Given the clear weather, the main track should be listed as Fast. The turf course, having avoided recent significant precipitation, should be Firm. The rail on the turf course is set at 28 feet, which often favors horses that can save ground or are near the lead, as the temporary rail setting can tighten the turns.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
The Fair Grounds dirt oval has shown a specific trend this meet. In sprint races (6 furlongs), early speed has been a significant asset, with horses on or near the lead winning nearly half the races. Inside posts (1-3) have performed well in sprints. For route races on dirt, the track plays fairer, though speed and pressers breaking from inside posts still hold a tactical advantage due to the short run to the first turn. On the turf, the 28-foot rail setting often limits the effectiveness of deep closers unless the pace is blistering. Stalkers and horses with tactical speed who can secure position before the turns tend to outperform one-run closers.
Race 1 Analysis
Pace Analysis
This 6-furlong claiming event for older horses features a field with moderate early speed. Thunderhawk and Silver Halo possess enough tactical speed to be forwardly placed. Expect a moderate pace, which should allow the pressers to get the jump on the deep closers.
Key Contenders
Thunderhawk (1) looks to be the horse to beat. Dropping into a claiming race and breaking from the rail with Jose Ortiz aboard, this gelding fits the “speed from the inside” profile that has been successful this meet. He should be able to dictate terms or sit comfortably in the pocket. Silver Halo (2) is another logical contender who has shown flashes of ability. If he draws into the race and is healthy, his best effort puts him right in the mix for the win.
Secondary Choices
Express Line (3) offers some value underneath. While perhaps a step slower than the top two on paper, the James Graham and Grant Forster combination is capable of pulling off an upset if the pace collapses. Unbridled Pleasure (4) will likely take money based on connections but needs to improve on recent form to challenge for the top spot.
Longshots
Instamatical (7) is a longshot who could pick up the pieces if the leaders tire. Breaking from the outside allows him to see the field, but he will need a significant pace meltdown to hit the board.
Betting Strategy
Focus on Thunderhawk to win, potentially keying him in exactas over Silver Halo and Express Line.
Selections
Win: Thunderhawk (1) Place: Silver Halo (2) Show: Express Line (3)
Race 2 Analysis
Pace Analysis
This 1 Mile 70-yard claiming race for fillies and mares should see honest fractions. Came Up Roses and Perfect Union have shown speed in the past and will likely vie for the lead early.
Key Contenders
Came Up Roses (1) draws the rail and gets Harry Hernandez. Her speed figures fit well here, and the inside post is an advantage at this distance. She should be able to save ground and make a run. Perfect Union (2) is the main danger. Trained by Keith Desormeaux with James Graham riding, she has the class to beat this field if she gets a clean trip.
Secondary Choices
McKinzie Magic (6) has been consistent and should be in the mix for the minor awards. Paco Lopez is an aggressive rider who will likely put her in a good position early. Ballybay Beauty (5) is another solid option for the exotics, especially with Mitchell Murrill in the irons.
Longshots
Lady Orient (7) is the outsider of the field. She will need to improve significantly to challenge the top contenders but could add value to trifectas or superfectas.
Betting Strategy
A win bet on Came Up Roses is the primary play. Box her with Perfect Union in exactas.
Selections
Win: Came Up Roses (1) Place: Perfect Union (2) Show: McKinzie Magic (6)
Race 3 Analysis
Pace Analysis
The pace in this 6-furlong starter optional claiming race should be hot. Double Edge Sword and Pensacola both have early gas. This could set up well for a stalker like Guile.
Key Contenders
Guile (3) is the morning line favorite for a reason. He has been in excellent form and his stalking style fits the likely pace scenario perfectly. Ben Curtis rides for Alexis Claire. Double Edge Sword (1) is the speed of the speed. If he can clear the field from the rail, he might not look back, but he faces pressure.
Secondary Choices
Pensacola (4) is a consistent runner who rarely runs a bad race. He should be involved early and hang around for a share. Avery’s Gem (6) with Jose Ortiz is a threat. Ortiz’s presence alone warrants respect, and the horse has competitive figures.
Longshots
Premium (2) is a price play who could sneak into the superfecta. He has some back class that could surface in this spot.
Betting Strategy
Guile looks like a solid single in multi-race wagers. For vertical bets, play him over Double Edge Sword and Avery’s Gem.
Selections
Win: Guile (3) Place: Double Edge Sword (1) Show: Avery’s Gem (6)
Race 4 Analysis
Pace Analysis
This 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint for maidens will be fast. Flash N Dash and Aurora Sky will likely gun for the lead. The 28-foot rail setting makes speed dangerous, but a duel could open it up for a closer.
Key Contenders
Twolatebabydoll (2) is an intriguing entry for Al Stall and Jose Ortiz. The French-bred filly should appreciate the turf and has likely been training for this debut. Flash N Dash (1) has the rail and Mitchell Murrill. She will likely try to wire the field and could be tough to catch if she clears.
Secondary Choices
Aurora Sky (6) adds blinkers and gets Paco Lopez. This implies they will send her hard. She has a big chance to hold on for a share. More Sweeter (7) represents the Brendan Walsh barn and could be anything on debut.
Longshots
Classy Beach (8) and Lewinsky (9) are both well-bred fillies who could pop at a price in a race full of unknowns.
Betting Strategy
This is a spread race in Pick sequences. A small win bet on Twolatebabydoll is warranted, but using the “all” button in deeper exotic tickets might be wise.
Selections
Win: Twolatebabydoll (2) Place: Flash N Dash (1) Show: Aurora Sky (6)
Race 5 Analysis
Pace Analysis
Bron and Brow and Clear as a Bele will ensure a lively pace in this 6-furlong dirt sprint.
Key Contenders
Bron and Brow (3) is the class of the field. Trained by Steve Asmussen, he faces a field he should handle. His speed figures are superior to his rivals. Clear as a Bele (1) is the main opposition. Paco Lopez will likely send him from the rail, and if he gets loose, he could steal it.
Secondary Choices
Sounds Like Power (2) and Hay Jude (6) are likely fighting for third. Hay Jude gets Jose Ortiz, which is a significant jockey upgrade.
Longshots
Beleout (4) would be a surprise winner but could fill out the bottom of the superfecta.
Betting Strategy
Bron and Brow is a probable standout. Key him in the win spot and use him as a single.
Selections
Win: Bron and Brow (3) Place: Clear as a Bele (1) Show: Hay Jude (6)
Race 6 Analysis
Pace Analysis
In this 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint, Stepping Stones and She’s a Live Wire will likely show speed. The pace should be honest but not suicidal.
Key Contenders
Stepping Stones (1) looks formidable. Trained by Joe Sharp (meet leader) and ridden by Paco Lopez, this filly has the connections and the post position to control the race. She’s a Live Wire (4) has shown good turn of foot and should be right there at the finish.
Secondary Choices
Dale’s Bluff (7) gets Jose Ortiz and Joe Sharp. The Sharp entry of Stepping Stones and Dale’s Bluff is very strong. Don’t overlook this one. I B Flyin (5) with James Graham is a consistent check-earner.
Longshots
Hidden Map (2) is a longshot who draws a good post. If the pace collapses, she could pick up pieces.
Betting Strategy
Bet the Joe Sharp trainees. An exacta box of Stepping Stones and Dale’s Bluff is a viable strategy.
Selections
Win: Stepping Stones (1) Place: Dale’s Bluff (7) Show: She’s a Live Wire (4)
Race 7 Analysis
Pace Analysis
Modo and Quantum Burst are the primary speed horses in this 6-furlong contest. Trouble in Love should be sitting just off the pace.
Key Contenders
Modo (2) has been running lights out for Tom Amoss. With Brian Hernandez Jr. aboard, she is the one to beat. Trouble in Love (4) from the Brad Cox barn is the clear danger. She has the class and the stalking style to run down the leaders.
Secondary Choices
Quantum Burst (3) will be part of the early pace and could hang on for a share. Paco Lopez stays aboard, which is a positive sign. Evanescence (5) is another Kenneally trainee who fits well here with Jose Ortiz.
Longshots
Aldora (1) is a closer who needs a pace meltdown to win but could clunk up for third or fourth.
Betting Strategy
A win bet on Modo is the play. Box Modo and Trouble in Love in exactas.
Selections
Win: Modo (2) Place: Trouble in Love (4) Show: Quantum Burst (3)
Race 8 Analysis
Pace Analysis
A full field of 14 (with also-eligibles potentially) for this 1 1/16-mile turf maiden race. Traffic will be an issue. Expect a chaotic pace with several horses trying to clear from outside posts.
Key Contenders
Follow Up (2) draws well and gets Jose Ortiz. The Cherie DeVaux trainee has been working well and should get a ground-saving trip. Royal Causeway (6) has shown promise and gets Florent Geroux. He should be running late.
Secondary Choices
Black Hornet (1) has the rail and Marcelino Pedroza. He will need to work out a trip but has the talent. Robert Lee (3) adds blinkers and could show more speed today.
Longshots
Newman (7) and Provider (8) are first-time starters or lightly raced horses with upside. In a race this deep, they offer great value.
Betting Strategy
This is a race to spread in. Follow Up is the tepid top pick, but using Royal Causeway and Black Hornet in multis is essential.
Selections
Win: Follow Up (2) Place: Royal Causeway (6) Show: Black Hornet (1)
Race 9 Analysis
Pace Analysis
The nightcap is a 6-furlong maiden claiming sprint. La Maxima and Metallic Maid should vie for the early lead.
Key Contenders
La Maxima (2) drops in class and gets Jose Ortiz. This is a potent angle, and she should be very tough to beat in this spot. Metallic Maid (1) has the rail and decent speed figures. She is the logical alternative.
Secondary Choices
Betsy Louise (7) and Bistineau Beauty (5) are both capable of hitting the board in this weak field. Paco Lopez on Bistineau Beauty is a notable jockey change.
Longshots
Sweet Aurora G (8) is a price horse who could improve in her second start.
Betting Strategy
La Maxima looks like a “get out” horse in the last race. Win bet and key in exactas.
Selections
Win: La Maxima (2) Place: Metallic Maid (1) Show: Bistineau Beauty (5)
Jockey Notes and Insights
Jose Ortiz and Paco Lopez are the riders to watch today. They are locked in a tight battle for the riding title. Ortiz has excellent mounts in Races 1, 4, 6, 8, and 9. He is riding particularly well on the turf. Paco Lopez has live mounts in Races 5, 6, and 7 and is dangerous on speed horses. Florent Geroux (Race 7, 8) and Brian Hernandez Jr. (Race 7) are also well-mounted in the feature races.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Joe Sharp is the leading trainer and sends out a strong pair in Race 6. His horses have been ready to fire off the bench. Brad Cox (Race 7) and Steve Asmussen (Race 5, 8) have their usual high-win-percentage runners entered. Look for Al Stall’s first-time starters or turf runners (Race 4) to be live.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The best bet of the day appears to be Bron and Brow in Race 5. He holds a significant class edge. For value, look to Twolatebabydoll in Race 4 and Stepping Stones in Race 6. The Late Pick 4 (Races 6-9) should be anchored by using the Joe Sharp entries in Race 6 and La Maxima in Race 9, while spreading in the difficult Race 8.
Best Bet
Race 5: Bron and Brow (3)
Best Value Play
Race 6: Stepping Stones (1)
