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Aqueduct presents a deep 11-race Friday card highlighted by five stakes: the Interborough, Toboggan, Ladies, Ruthless, and Withers, anchoring an all-stakes late Pick 5. The current winter meet has been dominated by strong jockey and trainer colonies, with speed and the rail showing a notable edge in recent track-trend reports.
Recent meet-leader stats show Jose Lezcano, Manuel Franco, and Jaime Rodriguez all winning at healthy clips, while Linda Rice, Brad Cox, and Chad Brown have high-percentage barns firing consistently. The stakes features include a high-profile filly Lucille Ball in the Interborough, a sharp sprinter Doc Sullivan in the Toboggan, a dominant Weigh the Risks in the Ladies, rising sophomore Shilling in the Ruthless, and a Derby-points Withers where Mailata, Schoolyardsuperman, Ottinho, and Grittiness headline.
Weather and Track Conditions
Forecasts for the Aqueduct area call for cold but manageable racing weather, with temperatures around the low-to-mid 30s by afternoon under partly cloudy skies. NYRA has announced cancellations for the upcoming weekend due to arctic temperatures, underscoring how cold this air mass is, but Friday’s card is scheduled to go forward.
Track trends from NYRA’s own reports list the main track as fast on recent programs, and no indication has been given that today’s surface will be anything other than fast. Given the dry, cold pattern, expect a tight, quick surface with potential added kickback, especially impacting late-running types forced to eat dirt.
Track Bias and Post Position Bias
NYRA track-trend notes over the past week have emphasized a recurring advantage for inside paths and speed. Recent days describe the rail as a “significant advantage,” with multiple winners saving ground inside and forward horses proving hard to reel in late.
Historical and meet-wide stats show inside posts performing above par at two-turn routes, particularly at 1 1/8 miles, where rail posts have produced an elevated share of winners since the fall. In sprints, tactical speed from posts one through five has been optimal, while deep closers and wide-drawn off-the-pace runners have tended to underperform, especially on colder days with heavier kickback.
Race 1 – Allowance, 7 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time
Approximately 11:45 AM ET.
Pace Analysis
This non-winners-of-two allowance for older horses features several with tactical speed and one or two who can show outright pace. Buttah and Moe Eighty Eight project among the more forward types, while Prince Valiant and My Mitole have enough cruising speed to sit just behind the top flight.
Given the seven-furlong configuration and recent speed-favoring bias, a moderate-to-brisk pace that still proves advantageous to front and stalker types is likely, rather than a collapse scenario. Horses drawn inside with positional speed should enjoy a premium trip.
Key Contenders
Moe Eighty Eight comes off a productive sequence of allowance efforts and fits this condition well, and prior form in competitive allowance company suggests he is the class of the local runners. With Ricardo Santana Jr riding for John Ortiz, this colt profiles as a pace-adjacent key, capable of securing a forward spot and kicking on.
Prince Valiant, from the Todd Pletcher barn with Jose Lezcano up, is a lightly raced type with upside and a pattern of improving speed figures. The combination of a high-percentage trainer and a top win-rate jockey makes him a logical A-type contender if he progresses again.
My Mitole offers consistent speed and is well-placed for this allowance condition, having shown competitive figures in similar spots. With Manuel Franco aboard and a favorable weight allowance, he should find a good pressing or stalking trip just off the main speed.
Secondary Choices
Buttah from the rail is helped by the bias profile and can be forward early if asked, giving him an efficiency edge even if his figures are slightly below the top choices. Bermuda Blitz brings mid-pack versatility and can benefit if the pace turns a bit hotter than projected.
Longshots
Reynolds Channel has grinding route form that could translate if the leaders soften each other up, but he will need both a pace overperformance and a perfect inside trip to threaten the top tier. Protected is another who could clunk up for a share if the race shape turns more demanding than expected.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Win wagers can focus on Moe Eighty Eight as the primary key, with Prince Valiant acceptable if value appears on the board. Exactas and daily doubles can lean Moe Eighty Eight and Prince Valiant over My Mitole and Buttah, emphasizing inside-drawn speed and stalkers in multi-race sequences.
Selections
Win Moe Eighty Eight
Place Prince Valiant
Show My Mitole
Race 2 – Interborough Stakes, 7 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time
Approximately 12:14 PM ET.
Pace Analysis
The Interborough brings together a compact field of six older fillies and mares with a blend of pace types. Stonewall Star and Just Katherine show enough early gas to ensure an honest pace, while Lucille Ball and Her Laugh appear comfortable tracking in the second flight.
Given recent track bias, a filly who can sit just off the leaders and tip out turning for home figures to be in best shape. Pure deep closers will be up against both the bias and the likely modest field size.
Key Contenders
Lucille Ball is the clear standout on paper, entering after a devastating comeback allowance win where she scored by more than ten lengths and posted a triple-digit Beyer. She is two-for-two lifetime, has demonstrated the ability to sit off the pace, and now steps into stakes company for a trainer who spots aggressively but logically.
Her Laugh brings proven stakes form, including a prior stakes win and strong sprint figures that position her as the main rival to the favorite. Her tactical speed and outside draw allow a comfortable stalking position, avoiding kickback while staying within striking range.
Secondary Choices
Stonewall Star can carve out a front-running or pace-pressing trip and may be the one Lucille Ball must reel in late. Just Katherine has been a consistent allowance operator and could hang around for a minor award if the big names do not fire.
Longshots
Ourdaydreaminggirl looks ambitiously spotted and will need a significant step forward in figures to threaten the top two. Sultry Lass returns from scratch-related issues and has some back class, but her form questions position her more as an exotics filler at a price.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Lucille Ball is the most likely winner on the card and serves as a strong single in multi-race wagers, though her win price may be short. Straight exactas using Lucille Ball over Her Laugh and Stonewall Star, and a small saver exacta with Her Laugh on top, provide value if the favorite is overbet.
Selections
Win Lucille Ball
Place Her Laugh
Show Stonewall Star
Race 3 – Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time
Approximately 12:44 PM ET.
Pace Analysis
This non-winners-of-two 20000 claimer features several speed-forward types, including Ready Set Twirl from the inside and Lean Music Machine. Gypsy Dreaming and Celtic Prince add to the pace picture, suggesting an above-average early tempo.
With multiple senders and a fair-sized field, a mid-pack stalker with the ability to tip out turning for home could be well positioned, especially if the inside pace collapses late. Nevertheless, given the meet’s speed tilt, it is unwise to abandon all speed horses; those with stamina and inside trips still have an edge.
Key Contenders
Celtic Prince, with Jaime Rodriguez aboard, offers a good blend of tactical speed and finishing ability and appears to be well spotted in this condition. Hard to Say also profiles nicely as a pace-adjacent type who can sit just off the duel and pounce late for a high-percentage barn.
Nantz, under Jose Lezcano, figures as a logical contender with his reliable finishing kick and connections that excel with claiming types. His outside draw allows him to avoid the inside scramble and make one sustained run.
Secondary Choices
Lean Music Machine can factor prominently if he clears early, but his vulnerability comes if he is pressured by other speeds. Montauk Memoirs and Cool Hand Rich are both capable of minor awards if the front end softens.
Longshots
Majestic Arc and Ready Set Twirl would benefit from a meltdown scenario, but both appear a notch below the top contenders on recent form. They are usable only as deep exotics inclusions if looking for price horses to complete trifectas and superfectas.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Win bets can focus on Celtic Prince at a fair price, with Nantz as a backup depending on the board. Use Celtic Prince, Hard to Say, and Nantz as A-level horses in multi-race sequences, and include Lean Music Machine and Montauk Memoirs as B-level backups in horizontal wagers.
Selections
Win Celtic Prince
Place Nantz
Show Hard to Say
Race 4 – Toboggan Stakes, 7 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time
Approximately 1:14 PM ET.
Pace Analysis
The Toboggan shapes as a contested pace with several capable of being prominently placed: Doc Sullivan, Victory Way, Over and Ollie, and Light the Way all show early or tactical speed. Given the inside bias, expect inside-drawn speed to be very dangerous if they secure the fence into the turn.
Still, many of these are seasoned stakes sprinters with strong finishing kicks, so a true meltdown is less likely; more probable is a moderate-to-solid pace where class and trip decide the outcome.
Key Contenders
Doc Sullivan arrives off back-to-back strong wins, including an Aqueduct allowance score where he proved he could handle the surface and distance. His tactical speed and inside draw allow Santana Jr to secure a rail trip, matching the current bias profile.
Victory Way returns to a preferred one-turn configuration and has numbers that fit well in this Grade 3-level stakes. As a Mott trainee with Jose Lezcano, his late kick and stalking style make him a strong candidate to capitalize if Doc Sullivan faces enough pressure.
Be You, for Pletcher, also fits as a class-tested contender with sprinting ability and the kind of tactical pace that plays well at seven furlongs. With Kendrick Carmouche aboard, he should carve out a pressing trip in the clear.
Secondary Choices
Over and Ollie, with Ruben Silvera, figures as a wide-drawn pace factor who may need to work harder to get position. Nation offers late-running potential but may be disadvantaged by the track’s current speed lean.
Longshots
Light the Way has some upside turning back but will need a career-best performance to defeat this group. Maximus Meridius is a hard-knocking type who can land a share with the right setup but looks a notch below the top three on recent figures.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Doc Sullivan is a strong win candidate and a possible single in some horizontal bets, especially where you want coverage in bigger field races later on the card. Use exactas and trifectas built around Doc Sullivan and Victory Way, with Be You and Over and Ollie underneath.
Selections
Win Doc Sullivan
Place Victory Way
Show Be You
Race 5 – Starter Allowance, 1 1/8 Miles Dirt
Post Time
Approximately 1:44 PM ET.
Pace Analysis
This starter allowance for older runners at nine furlongs features a blend of mid-pack grinders and a few mild speed types such as Interceptor and Complex Agenda. Several, including Blown Cover and Brave Bear, have shown comfort sitting just behind the leaders, suggesting a moderate early tempo.
The rail’s strength at two-turn routes and especially 1 1/8 miles favors inside-drawn horses that can save ground all the way. Late-closers from outside posts will need a significant pace boost and racing luck.
Key Contenders
Complex Agenda, with Ricardo Santana Jr for Tom Morley, appears well-spotted here having shown improving route form and stamina. His tactical gear should allow him to stalk inside and produce a sustained run turning for home.
Curvino, for Linda Rice and Kendrick Carmouche, fits the condition strongly and hails from a barn that excels in these starter-route spots. Expect an inside stalking trip that takes full advantage of current biases.
Secondary Choices
Blown Cover and Brave Bear, both from Rudy Rodriguez, make sense as mid-range contenders who could benefit if the pace is softer than expected. Interceptor for Michael Maker and Manuel Franco also has the right stalking style and sufficient route experience to be dangerous.
Longshots
Apalta returns from illness-related scratches but has enough ability in prior form to slip into exotics if ready. Did It Dialed is coming off a steward-related scratch and will need a bounce-back effort to be competitive.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
This is a good race to spread slightly in horizontals while still leaning on Complex Agenda and Curvino as A-level keys. For verticals, combination exactas and tris using Complex Agenda and Curvino on top, with Blown Cover, Brave Bear, and Interceptor underneath, are attractive.
Selections
Win Complex Agenda
Place Curvino
Show Interceptor
Race 6 – Ladies Stakes, 1 1/8 Miles Dirt
Post Time
Approximately 2:14 PM ET.
Pace Analysis
The Ladies brings a compact field of six older fillies and mares going nine furlongs. Low Country Magic and Bernietakescharge can show some early speed, but Weigh the Risks, Curlin’s Girl, and Scalable are calculated stalkers who can sit close.
The likely scenario is a controlled, moderate pace that heavily rewards tactical types and punishes deep closers. Inside positioning at both turns is a major factor at this distance.
Key Contenders
Weigh the Risks is a short-priced standout, entering on a three-race win streak and having won five of six career starts on dirt. The main question is stretching to nine furlongs for the first time, but her grinding style and strong late pace figures suggest she will handle it.
Scalable, trained by Todd Pletcher, offers class as a graded stakes winner and exits a solid effort against tougher in a previous mile stakes. Her ability to stalk and pounce fits the projected race shape perfectly, and she is the most credible upset candidate.
Secondary Choices
Curlin’s Girl, for Linda Rice, has been consistent and should appreciate the added ground, though she may be a notch below the top two in sheer class. Low Country Magic could try to steal it up front but is likely to face enough pressure to test her stamina.
Longshots
Bernietakescharge and Purloin shape more as exotics players who will need regression from the favorites to threaten for the win. They are usable in trifectas and supers with Weigh the Risks on top.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Weigh the Risks functions as a strong single in most horizontal sequences, with Scalable used as a saver in multi-race bets if you want protection against a modest upset. Straight exactas using Weigh the Risks over Scalable and Curlin’s Girl are logical, and a small reverse exacta with Scalable over Weigh the Risks can hedge against an off day from the favorite.
Selections
Win Weigh the Risks
Place Scalable
Show Curlin’s Girl
Race 7 – Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt
Post Time
Approximately 2:44 PM ET.
Pace Analysis
This open 10000 claimer at a mile has several confirmed speeds and pressers: Whiskey Frens, Mister Holden, O P Firecracker, and Mr. Ripple all can be forward into the first turn. With a large field and multiple inside speed elements, the opening quarter could be sharper than par.
Given the cold conditions and track tilt, inside-forward runners still have an advantage, but a mid-pack runner saving ground could get the perfect trip if the leaders overdo it.
Key Contenders
Bar Fourteen, with Kendrick Carmouche, profiles as a solid class dropper or consistent type who can sit just off the pace and pounce turning for home. His experience at the trip and connection strength make him a logical key horse in exotics.
Mr. Ripple, for Miguel Clement and Jaime Rodriguez, is an interesting tactical type who can stalk inside and finish well. His consistent route form suggests he fits well at this 10000 level.
Secondary Choices
O P Firecracker is returning from illness scratches but, back at this bottom claiming level, has the early speed to be a factor on the engine. Mystic Night, from an outside post, has enough route experience to make a wide, sustained run into the exotics picture.
Longshots
He’s Got This and Stop the Spread both project to be late-running types who need pace help but can spice up trifectas and supers if the early battle is heated. Eric From Miami could also improve with an inside ground-saving trip at big odds.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Focus win bets on Bar Fourteen and Mr. Ripple depending on tote value. Vertical wagers can lean on exactas and tris with Bar Fourteen and Mr. Ripple on top, using O P Firecracker, Mystic Night, and He’s Got This underneath.
Selections
Win Bar Fourteen
Place Mr. Ripple
Show O P Firecracker
Race 8 – Ruthless Stakes, 7 Furlongs Dirt
Post Time
Approximately 3:16 PM ET.
Pace Analysis
This Ruthless Stakes for three-year-old fillies features several with pace: Interstatelovesong, Ivy Girl, and Two Bits can show speed, while Shilling and Midnite Ginny figure as tactical stalkers. The pace should be honest to strong, especially given some stretching out and turnback dynamics.
With the current inside-speed-friendly track, filly stalkers who can sit second flight and move three-wide at the quarter pole look ideally positioned.
Key Contenders
Shilling is the filly to beat, a stakes winner already and cutting back from a longer route to this one-turn seven furlongs. Her prior sprint figures, including a field-leading Beyer at shorter distances, stand out, and her trainer excels with turnbacks.
Two Bits is a serious rival, having posted strong figures in prior stakes including the Busanda, where she earned Oaks points and demonstrated stamina. Turning back to seven furlongs should sharpen her late kick.
Interstatelovesong brings an eye-catching maiden win where she powered away by open lengths and recorded a competitive figure. While this is a big class jump, her upside makes her a key player at a somewhat better price than Shilling.
Secondary Choices
Ivy Girl and Midnite Ginny are viable exotics players, with Ivy Girl likely part of the pace and Midnite Ginny presenting a stalking trip from a favorable post. Our Golden Gator and Courage On Tap are more speculative but can be considered in deeper vertical tickets.
Longshots
Our Golden Gator and Courage On Tap must improve significantly to match the proven stakes-level fillies but could pick up pieces if the principals duel themselves into exhaustion.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Shilling is a likely single for many players, but there may be better value in exactas and small win bets on Interstatelovesong if she is overlooked relative to her upside. An exacta structure focusing Shilling and Interstatelovesong over Two Bits, Ivy Girl, and Midnite Ginny is a sound approach.
Selections
Win Shilling
Place Interstatelovesong
Show Two Bits
Race 9 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/8 Miles Dirt
Post Time
Approximately 3:48 PM ET.
Pace Analysis
This 1 1/8-mile allowance optional claimer has several midfield grinders and a couple of possible pace-setters in Makes Sense and Run Quiet Run Fast. Ambition and Valentinian can attend the pace, while Chillax and Toga d’Oro prefer to stalk.
Given the distance and field size, an honest but not suicidal pace is expected, favoring inside-drawn tactical types once again. Horses drawn wide will need to work hard into the first turn and may face ground-loss issues.
Key Contenders
Toga d’Oro, from Brad Cox with Reylu Gutierrez, projects well off improving figures and fits nicely at this two-other-than/50k level. His ability to sit mid-pack and finish strongly suits this race’s likely dynamics.
Valentinian, from Todd Pletcher with Mychel Sanchez, is another logical A-type with strong route figures and a class profile pointing toward stakes in the near future. He should enjoy an ideal stalking trip from a mid-gate draw.
Chillax, under Sahin Civaci for Mott, offers upside as a lightly raced four-year-old who could be peaking at this trip. His ground-saving style makes him dangerous if he steps forward again.
Secondary Choices
Magical Ways, from a wide draw for Rob Atras, is talented but must overcome both post and the track’s inside bias. Waitlist, for Linda Rice, is a consistent type and can clunk up for a piece.
Longshots
Power Seeker and Peek are usable deep in trifectas as late-running types hoping for a pace collapse but appear a cut below on raw numbers. Land d’Oro and Georgia Magic are similarly fringe contenders needing a big step forward.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Multi-race bettors can lean heavily on Toga d’Oro and Valentinian as co-keys, with Chillax and Magical Ways as secondary backups. Vertical plays can emphasize exactas using Toga d’Oro and Valentinian on top, with Chillax, Waitlist, and Magical Ways underneath.
Selections
Win Toga d’Oro
Place Valentinian
Show Chillax
Race 10 – Withers Stakes, 1 1/8 Miles Dirt
Post Time
Approximately 4:20 PM ET.
Pace Analysis
The Withers, a Derby points race at nine furlongs, features several forward types: Grittiness, Mailata, Star Sweeper, and Talk to Me Jimmy all can be up near the lead, while Ottinho and Schoolyardsuperman are more likely to stalk. With multiple contenders wanting to attend the pace and the trip demanding stamina, the tempo projects as honest to strong.
The inside advantage at this trip remains important, but distance ability and finishing power will be decisive given the two-turn configuration and Derby implications.
Key Contenders
Mailata arrives with the flashiest recent form: three straight victories by a combined margin of more than 20 lengths and a towering composite strength rating in pace and class metrics. He has early speed to secure position and has answered all challenges so far, making him the speed-of-the-speed candidate.
Schoolyardsuperman is a fast-rising colt for Chad Brown, having scored impressively in a maiden win with an 86 Beyer while stretching out. His profile suggests he can stalk from just off the pace and finish strongly, and some handicappers project him as Brown’s main Derby hope from this race.
Ottinho, also trained by Brown, brings proven 1 1/8-mile stamina, having already won at this distance and possessing a very strong pedigree as a half-brother to Gun Runner. He fits as a steady, grinding type who can outstay many rivals if the pace is demanding.
Secondary Choices
Grittiness, from Todd Pletcher, is not without a chance after running fifth in the Grade 2 Remsen and now removing blinkers, a move that can help him settle early. Fourth and One, a sharp NY-bred with a big maiden win at a mile, stretches out and could get an inside speed-stalking trip.
Talk to Me Jimmy and Star Sweeper are more price-dependent but offer forward running styles that can get them into the frame if they improve.
Longshots
Fourth and One is borderline between contender and price horse, but his class question at open graded level makes him more of an exotics stab. Talk to Me Jimmy and Star Sweeper need big jumps in figures to contend for the win but can fill lower exotics with the right trip.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
A common strategic approach is to key the Brown pair, Ottinho and Schoolyardsuperman, in exactas and tris, mirroring analyst suggestions for a Brown exacta. Mailata must be respected and used on win tickets and horizontals, but if he is overbet, there may be more value in leaning on the Brown duo.
In verticals, structure tickets with Ottinho and Schoolyardsuperman on top and in second position, using Mailata and Grittiness underneath, and sprinkling Fourth and One into third and fourth.
Selections
Win Ottinho
Place Schoolyardsuperman
Show Mailata
Race 11 – Maiden Special Weight, 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt (NY-bred Fillies)
Post Time
Approximately 4:52 PM ET.
Pace Analysis
This New York-bred maiden special for three-year-old fillies at six and a half furlongs is deep with firsters and lightly raced types, making the pace scenario somewhat uncertain. Known running styles suggest Queen Sally and Greek Goddess can show some early lick, while Raynham Hall and Sugartown Sweetie have profiles of stalkers.
Given the modest distance and track pattern, inside tactical speed once again figures to be advantageous, and inexperienced closers may struggle with kickback.
Key Contenders
Factory Setting, from Chad Brown with Manuel Franco, stands out on paper as a well-bred filly likely to be ready first out, given the barn’s strong record with debut runners. The combination of a top trainer and a leading jockey points to a high-percentage chance that she fires a representative race.
Sugartown Sweetie, with Jose Lezcano up, is another likely key, having a good pedigree for sprinting and landing with a patient but aggressive rider. Raynham Hall, for Rudy Rodriguez, has shown hints of ability and can improve significantly second out.
Secondary Choices
Queen Sally and Greek Goddess both fit as pace types who can hang around for a share if they break sharply and use the inside paths effectively. Combatant’s Song and Rock Steady Babe are wild cards with enough behind-the-scenes support to merit inclusion underneath.
Longshots
Into Hijinks and Ms Nikki D both return from scratch-related issues and must overcome fitness and experience questions, making them longshots for win purposes but mild exotics possibilities. My First Dinah is another who may need a race but can be used in deep trifectas.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Given the number of unknowns, this is an excellent leg to spread in multi-race wagers, though Factory Setting and Sugartown Sweetie should serve as primary A-levels. Vertical plays can use exactas and trifectas with Factory Setting and Sugartown Sweetie on top, Raynham Hall and Greek Goddess in second, and a wide mix underneath.
Selections
Win Factory Setting
Place Sugartown Sweetie
Show Raynham Hall
Jockey Notes and Insights
Jose Lezcano has been one of the hottest riders at the meet, posting 18 wins from 62 mounts, a strong 29 percent strike rate and top-three finishes in nearly 60 percent of his starts. He rides key mounts in Prince Valiant, Victory Way, Midnite Ginny, and Sugartown Sweetie, making his horses must-consider contenders in every race where he appears.
Manuel Franco leads the colony in both mounts and earnings, with 15 wins from 90 starts and over one million dollars in purses, underscoring his reliability on stakes and allowance stock. He partners with My Mitole, Interceptor, Weigh the Risks, Ivy Girl, and Factory Setting, further elevating their chances.
Jaime Rodriguez has been a key winter-meet presence, winning 17 of 86 starts and proving particularly effective on pace-pressing types who can seize inside position. His rides on Celtic Prince, Stonewall Star, Curvino, Mr. Ripple, and Two Bits are all live, especially in bias-aligned setups.
Kendrick Carmouche has a solid 20 percent win rate this meet and excels on forwardly placed horses, making his mounts Bar Fourteen, Be You, Majorsdreamcometru, and others well-suited to the current track. Ricardo Santana Jr, while not a full-time Aqueduct regular, is a high-impact rider when in town and has live mounts like Moe Eighty Eight, Doc Sullivan, Complex Agenda, Interstatelovesong, and Grittiness.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Linda Rice leads the trainer standings with 26 wins from 85 starters, a strong 30.6 percent win rate, and has been particularly successful with sprinters and mid-level allowance and claiming stock. Her runners like Hard to Say, Curvino, Curlin’s Girl, Waitlist, and others warrant extra consideration given barn form and the current track profile.
Brad Cox maintains a high 32 percent strike rate at the meet, and his route runners such as Toga d’Oro are frequently well-meant and conditioned to improve with distance. Chad Brown, though with fewer starters this specific winter, still strikes at nearly 29 percent and sends out major players in Weigh the Risks, Schoolyardsuperman, Ottinho, and Factory Setting.
Todd Pletcher continues to place high-potential routing colts in key spots, including Grittiness in the Withers and Prince Valiant in the early allowance. His record at Belmont at the Big A configurations suggests he excels with two-turn dirt stakes horses aiming for Derby and Oaks points.
Trainers like Michael Maker, Richard Dutrow Jr, Miguel Clement, and Rob Atras all bring smaller but potent strings, especially in routes and allowance ranks. Tom Morley’s operation has been on an upswing, and his presence with Complex Agenda and Run Quiet Run Fast is notable in the mid-card routes.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Horizontal players should consider using Lucille Ball in the Interborough and Weigh the Risks in the Ladies as strong singles in multi-race sequences, particularly the early Pick 4 and the all-stakes late Pick 5. Shilling in the Ruthless and Doc Sullivan in the Toboggan are also legitimate single candidates, though their races have enough depth to justify one or two backups.
The Withers offers one of the better value opportunities on the card: keying Ottinho and Schoolyardsuperman in exactas and trifectas around the likely shorter-priced Mailata can create high-yield structures if the Brown pair outfinishes the speed. In verticals, focusing on inside-drawn tactical runners in routes (Complex Agenda, Curvino, Toga d’Oro, Valentinian) and bias-aligned speed in sprints (Moe Eighty Eight, Stonewall Star, Shilling) is the central meet-long angle.
For bettors seeking price stabs, under-the-radar types like Celtic Prince in Race 3, Bar Fourteen in Race 7, and Interstatelovesong in the Ruthless can offer attractive win or exacta prices if the public over-keys the obvious chalk. In the maiden nightcap, spreading around Factory Setting and Sugartown Sweetie, while including Raynham Hall and Greek Goddess in trifectas, is a reasonable approach in a chaotic finale.
