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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Aqueduct runs an 11-race Friday card on February 6 highlighted by five dirt stakes at seven furlongs and 1 1/8 miles, including the Interborough, Toboggan, Ladies, Ruthless, and Withers. The undercard features allowance, starter allowance, claiming, and a New York-bred maiden special weight event, giving a full progression of class levels from inexpensive claimers to Kentucky Derby prep company.
The current winter meet has been characterized by strong rider and trainer colonies: Jose Lezcano, Manuel Franco, and Jaime Rodriguez are winning at healthy rates, while Linda Rice, Brad Cox, Chad Brown, and Todd Pletcher supply many of the key contenders on the card. The stakes races showcase standouts like Lucille Ball (Interborough), Doc Sullivan (Toboggan), Weigh the Risks (Ladies), Shilling (Ruthless), and a deep three-year-old group in the Withers anchored by Mailata, Schoolyardsuperman, and Ottinho.
Weather and Track Conditions
Forecasts for the Aqueduct area point to cold but manageable racing conditions, with temperatures reaching the low-to-mid 30s and partly cloudy skies through the racing window. While NYRA has canceled weekend cards due to an approaching arctic air mass, Friday’s program is expected to go forward as scheduled.
Track reports list the main track as fast on recent days, and no precipitation trend suggests otherwise for today, implying another fast surface. In cold, dry conditions, the dirt track tends to play tight and quick, with notable kickback that can be especially challenging for deep closers racing inside and behind horses.
Track Bias and Post Position Bias
Recent NYRA track-trend notes highlight a pronounced advantage to inside paths and speed, particularly on the main track. The rail has been described as a “significant advantage,” and horses saving ground on or near the fence have won a disproportionate share of races.
Across the current meet, inside posts at two-turn routes, including 1 1/8 miles, have performed above expectations, with the rail and inner posts winning at higher-than-normal rates. In sprints, tactical speed from posts one through five has been most successful, while wide, deep-closing types have underperformed, especially on colder days when kickback is heavier.
Race 1 – Allowance, 7 Furlongs
Race 1 is a non-winners-of-two allowance for older horses at seven furlongs on dirt. The pace should be set by forward runners like Buttah and Moe Eighty Eight, with stalkers such as Prince Valiant and My Mitole close behind in a race that projects as honest but favorable to speed.
Key contenders include Moe Eighty Eight, who brings solid allowance form and tactical speed, and Prince Valiant, a lightly raced Pletcher runner with upside and an efficient stalking style under Jose Lezcano. My Mitole ranks as another main player with consistent sprint figures and a likely pressing trip.
Secondary choices include Buttah, who benefits from a rail draw and bias-friendly inside speed, and Bermuda Blitz, a mid-pack type who could capitalize if the pace is stronger than anticipated. Longshot considerations such as Reynolds Channel and Protected rely on a more demanding pace to pick up pieces late.
Race 2 – Interborough Stakes, 7 Furlongs
The Interborough is a 135000 stakes for older fillies and mares at seven furlongs, drawing a compact but quality field. With Stonewall Star and Just Katherine capable of showing early speed and Lucille Ball and Her Laugh tracking, the race projects as an honest, tactically run sprint.
Lucille Ball is the leading contender, entering off a dominant comeback allowance win by more than ten lengths with a triple-digit Beyer, and she steps up to stakes company with strong credentials. Her Laugh is the main alternative, a stakes-winning filly with tactical speed and solid sprint numbers.
Secondary players include Stonewall Star, likely pace presence who can hang on for a share if unpressured, and Just Katherine, a consistent allowance performer stepping into stakes. Longshots like Ourdaydreaminggirl and Sultry Lass need significant improvement or a favorable race flow to contend beyond minor awards.
Race 3 – Claiming, 6 Furlongs
Race 3 is a 20000 claiming race for non-winners of two races at six furlongs, with multiple speed elements present. Ready Set Twirl, Lean Music Machine, Gypsy Dreaming, and Celtic Prince add up to a potentially above-average early tempo, positioning mid-pack stalkers well.
Celtic Prince stands out as a key contender with a balanced mix of speed and finishing ability under Jaime Rodriguez. Hard to Say and Nantz are also primary players: Hard to Say fits as a stalking type from a productive barn, and Nantz gets a favorable outside draw with Jose Lezcano, allowing one sustained run.
Secondary choices include Lean Music Machine, whose chances improve if he can clear early, and Montauk Memoirs and Cool Hand Rich, who can compete for minor shares with the right setup. Longshots Majestic Arc and Ready Set Twirl are more dependent on a pace collapse scenario to have impact beyond the exotics.
Race 4 – Toboggan Stakes, 7 Furlongs
The Toboggan is a 150000 sprint stakes for older horses at seven furlongs. Pace figures to be contested with Doc Sullivan, Victory Way, Over and Ollie, and Light the Way all capable of being on or near the lead.
Doc Sullivan is a top contender, entering off consecutive strong wins including an Aqueduct allowance score, and he draws inside with the tactical speed to exploit a favorable rail. Victory Way returns to a better one-turn configuration and figures as a major threat with a stalking style and strong sprint figures.
Be You, representing Todd Pletcher, rounds out the primary group with competitive stakes-level sprint form and a projected pressing trip in the clear. Secondary options include Over and Ollie, a pace factor from a wide post, and Nation, a late runner affected by the current speed-friendly bias. Longshots Light the Way and Maximus Meridius require new top efforts to challenge the main trio.
Race 5 – Starter Allowance, 1 1/8 Miles
Race 5 is a starter allowance at nine furlongs for horses that have started for 50000 or less and not won beyond restricted levels. Pace looks moderate, with Interceptor and Complex Agenda among those likely to be nearest the lead, while Blown Cover and Brave Bear sit just behind.
Complex Agenda is a key route contender with improving form for Tom Morley and a tactical style that should secure good inside position. Curvino, from the Linda Rice barn, is another main player who fits the condition well and is adept at stalking trips, aligning with both trainer strengths and track bias.
Secondary choices include Blown Cover and Brave Bear, both from Rudy Rodriguez, who have the right running styles to capitalize if the pace unfolds gently. Interceptor, for Michael Maker, also profiles as a contender capable of sitting just off the lead at this distance. Longshots Apalta and Did It Dialed come off prior scratches and need both readiness and improvement to factor strongly.
Race 6 – Ladies Stakes, 1 1/8 Miles
The Ladies is a 135000 stakes for older fillies and mares at 1 1/8 miles on dirt. Pace shapes as moderate, with Low Country Magic and Bernietakescharge potentially forward, and Weigh the Risks, Curlin’s Girl, and Scalable tracking closely.
Weigh the Risks is a standout, entering on a three-race win streak and having captured five of six dirt starts, with today’s question being the new nine-furlong distance. Scalable is the main rival, a graded stakes winner for Todd Pletcher whose class and stalking style make her a serious threat if the favorite falters.
Secondary contenders include Curlin’s Girl, a consistent runner for Linda Rice who should appreciate the distance but may be slightly below the top pair in raw class. Low Country Magic and Bernietakescharge figure more as supporting players capable of minor awards if race shape is kind. Purloin looks like a longshot, needing a significant leap in performance to challenge the principal trio.
Race 7 – Claiming, 1 Mile
Race 7 is a 10000 claiming event at a mile for older horses. With Whiskey Frens, Mister Holden, O P Firecracker, and Mr. Ripple all showing early speed, the early fractions could be sharper than par, especially into the first turn.
Bar Fourteen is a key contender, bringing solid class or consistent form and a running style that allows him to stalk and pounce under Kendrick Carmouche. Mr. Ripple, for Miguel Clement and Jaime Rodriguez, is another main player with reliable route form and tactical ability to sit just behind the front group.
Secondary options include O P Firecracker, whose early speed and return from prior illness-related scratches make him a pace factor with some upside at this level, and Mystic Night, who can launch a sustained outside run into contention. Longshots such as He’s Got This, Stop the Spread, and Eric From Miami rely on overcooked fractions up front to move into the trifecta or superfecta picture.
Race 8 – Ruthless Stakes, 7 Furlongs
The Ruthless is a 135000 stakes for three-year-old fillies at seven furlongs. Interstatelovesong, Ivy Girl, and Two Bits contribute pace, while Shilling and Midnite Ginny project as stalking types with tactical versatility.
Shilling is the leading contender, a stakes winner already and now cutting back from a longer route to this one-turn trip, with prior sprint figures that are best in the field. Two Bits is a strong opponent, having posted a good performance in the Busanda with associated Oaks points, and should appreciate shortening up in distance.
Interstatelovesong is an important contender as well, coming off a visually impressive maiden win by open lengths with a competitive figure, though stepping up sharply in class. Secondary choices include Ivy Girl and Midnite Ginny, who can both sit close to the pace and stick around for minor awards. Our Golden Gator and Courage On Tap sit as longshots, needing major improvement or a pace meltdown.
Race 9 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/8 Miles
Race 9 is an 83000 allowance optional claimer at 1 1/8 miles for older horses, with an optional 50000 claiming tag. Makes Sense and Run Quiet Run Fast are among possible pace-setters, while Toga d’Oro, Ambition, Valentinian, and Chillax can sit just off the lead in stalking roles.
Toga d’Oro is a key contender for Brad Cox, combining improving route figures with a versatile mid-pack style well-suited to this distance. Valentinian, representing Todd Pletcher, offers high-quality route form and potential for future stakes, making him another top-level player.
Chillax for Bill Mott is a dangerous secondary contender, lightly raced with upside at this distance and well positioned by an inside draw. Magical Ways, though drawn wide, brings proven ability and can contend with a favorable trip, while Waitlist offers consistency and fits as a reliable exotics player for Linda Rice. Longshots like Power Seeker, Peek, Land d’Oro, and Georgia Magic need substantial improvement or a fast pace to significantly impact the outcome beyond minor shares.
Race 10 – Withers Stakes, 1 1/8 Miles
The Withers is a 200000 Kentucky Derby points race at nine furlongs for three-year-olds, awarding points on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale. Grittiness, Mailata, Star Sweeper, and Talk to Me Jimmy can all be prominent early, while Schoolyardsuperman and Ottinho prefer stalking roles.
Mailata is a headline contender, arriving with three consecutive dominant victories by large combined margins and a strong composite profile for pace and class. Schoolyardsuperman, a fast-rising Chad Brown trainee, boasts an 86 Beyer and a powerful last-out maiden win while stretching to two turns.
Ottinho, another Brown runner, brings proven 1 1/8-mile stamina and a pedigree linking him to top-class router Gun Runner, making him a serious win candidate if the pace is demanding. Secondary choices include Grittiness, a Pletcher colt coming out of the Grade 2 Remsen and removing blinkers, and Fourth and One, a sharp New York-bred stretching out from a strong one-mile win. Talk to Me Jimmy and Star Sweeper serve as longer-priced pace factors needing new top efforts at this level.
Race 11 – Maiden Special Weight, 6 1/2 Furlongs (NY-bred)
Race 11 is a 75000 maiden special weight for New York-bred three-year-old fillies at six and a half furlongs. Pace projections are uncertain due to several first-time starters, but Queen Sally and Greek Goddess show some potential for early speed, while Raynham Hall and Sugartown Sweetie profile as tactical types.
Factory Setting is a leading contender as a well-bred debut runner for Chad Brown with Manuel Franco up, combining a powerful trainer-jockey pairing in a spot where the barn typically fires. Sugartown Sweetie, partnered with Jose Lezcano, is another main player with sprint-oriented pedigree and the right rider profile.
Secondary contenders include Raynham Hall, who can improve off prior efforts, and Greek Goddess, a likely pace factor who may stick around for a share. Queen Sally, Combatant’s Song, and Rock Steady Babe are plausible exotics contributors with upside but more uncertainty. Longshots Into Hijinks and Ms Nikki D return from prior scratches and must overcome questions of readiness, while My First Dinah is another filly requiring development to compete strongly beyond minor awards.
