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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

The current meet at Sam Houston Race Park continues this afternoon with a nine-race card featuring a mix of claiming, maiden special weight, and allowance contests. The dominant narrative of the season remains the powerhouse combination of trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Stewart Elliott, who are winning at a prolific rate. Trainer Bret Calhoun also enters the day with a high win percentage, making his entries formidable, while Jerenesto Torrez has emerged as a “hot hand” with a strike rate exceeding 50% from limited starters.

Weather & Surface: The forecast calls for clear skies and a high of 65°F. The main dirt track is fast and expected to play fair, favoring horses with tactical speed who can secure position early. The Connally Turf Course is firm with the rail set at 18 feet. This rail setting often tightens the turns, favoring horses with early tactical speed who can save ground, while deep closers may find themselves running out of real estate.

Jockey & Trainer Trends: Stewart Elliott is the rider to beat, particularly on Asmussen and Willis trainees. He excels at pace judgment on both surfaces. Floyd Wethey Jr. and Jose Alvarez are also riding in top form, often bringing in value for barns like Karen Jacks and Bret Calhoun.

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Race-by-Race Analysis

1st Race – Claiming $10,000 (7 Furlongs, Dirt)

Race Notes: This event for older horses lacks pure early speed. The advantage goes to the horse who can make the lead first or secure a forward tracking position without expending too much energy.

• Key Contenders: Threefiftyseven (1) draws the rail and possesses the tactical speed and back class to handle this field. My Good Good Boy (4) is a consistent grinder who should get the first run on the closers.
• Secondary Choices: Turquoise Blue (2) takes a significant drop in class, a move that often wakes up horses from the Karen Jacks barn.
• Longshots: Send Off (6) breaks from the outside in a small field, allowing jockey Mario Fuentes to see how the race develops and potentially pick up the pieces.

2nd Race – Claiming $15,000 (5 Furlongs, Turf)

Race Notes: With the rail out, speed is at a premium in this turf sprint. Horses that can clear the field early or save ground on the tight turns will have a distinct advantage.

• Key Contenders: Avaling (3) represents the high-percentage Jerenesto Torrez barn and has the speed to dictate terms. On Wing (6) partners Stewart Elliott with trainer Mindy Willis; this mare should appreciate the distance and Elliott's pace judgment.
• Secondary Choices: Miss Mozetti (1) has the rail and could sneak up the inside if she breaks clean.
• Longshots: Glory O (4) is a veteran mare capable of running well fresh and could offer value if the top choices falter.

3rd Race – Claiming $10,000 (6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt)

Race Notes: Unlike the opener, this sprint features plenty of speed, which could set up well for a stalker or closer who can navigate traffic.

• Key Contenders: Fort Hood (3) gets Stewart Elliott and drops into a much softer spot; he should sit just off the hot pace and pounce. Vietnam Victory (6) is a class act who can dominate if he retains his old form.
• Secondary Choices: Slim Jimmy (4) is the likely speed of the race but faces pressure that could leave him vulnerable late.
• Longshots: Red Summerbird (1) could clunk up for a share if the speed collapses completely.

4th Race – Claiming $7,500 (5 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt)

Race Notes: This race features a standout favorite in a field with little confirmed speed to challenge him.

• Key Contenders: Flotation Station (6) drops in class and has the speed, connections (Asmussen/Elliott), and post position to wire this field. Our Moon Pie (3), the stablemate, will likely be running late to complete the exacta.
• Secondary Choices: Ore Mine (7) is the best of the rest and should track the favorite early.
• Longshots: Valdina Dreams (1) is an older campaigner who saves ground and could fill out the superfecta.

5th Race – Allowance (1 1/8 Miles, Turf)

Race Notes: The pace should be moderate in this route, favoring horses that can stay close to the front. The Asmussen barn holds a strong hand.

• Key Contenders: Enticing Sunset (4) has shown flashes of brilliance on turf and likely gets the jump on her rivals with her tactical speed. Morning Miracle (1) will be closing late if the pace heats up unexpectedly.
• Secondary Choices: Maddienlizzyshonor (3) fits well at this level and gets a savvy ride from veteran Deshawn Parker.
• Longshots: Put a Rock On It (6) is a dangerous entry from the Torrez barn that should not be ignored.

6th Race – Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt)

Race Notes: A sprint for maiden fillies where first-time starters and lightly raced horses from top barns often dominate.

• Key Contenders: Leila Mae (3) is the horse to beat, representing the potent Asmussen/Elliott team with likely strong morning works. Angels Envy (5) ships in with high-percentage trainer Rob Atras and could be the main danger.
• Secondary Choices: Pushing Through (8) is the second Asmussen entry and a logical threat if the favorite falters.
• Longshots: Si Graycie Go (4) debuts for Bret Calhoun, who is winning at a 34% clip this meet.

7th Race – Maiden Special Weight (1 Mile 70 Yards, Dirt)

Race Notes: This two-turn distance often exposes stamina issues in maidens. Experience at the route is a significant asset.

• Key Contenders: Courtinbymoonlight (2) has been knocking on the door and possesses the route breeding to handle the distance. She's a Kitten (1) has shown speed in sprints and could control the pace from the rail.
• Secondary Choices: Chip Alternative (7) runs for the shrewd Miguel Angel Silva barn and should be placed well.
• Longshots: Sherrys Ridge (4) is an older maiden whose maturity may help her outlast younger rivals.

8th Race – Allowance Optional Claiming (5 Furlongs, Turf)

Race Notes: A high-quality turf sprint where speed will be contested. The race likely comes down to the stalker versus the speed.

• Key Contenders: Tizawiz (3) looks formidable for the red-hot Bret Calhoun barn; she should sit the perfect trip behind the speedballs. Banterra (9) is the Asmussen/Elliott speed threat who could be gone if she clears from the outside.
• Secondary Choices: Fine Finish (1) draws the rail and will force the issue early.
• Longshots: Phunk (2) is a veteran closer who could benefit if the pace meltdown occurs.

9th Race – Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt – Arabian)

Race Notes: Arabian races can be unpredictable, but proven form and connections usually hold true.

• Key Contenders: MAJD SON (1) draws the rail for a capable barn and gets top rider Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez. WMA GETAWAY (5) has solid breeding lines suited for Texas racing.
• Secondary Choices: RV RELENTLESS (3) gets a positive jockey switch to Jose Alvarez, signaling intent.
• Longshots: Big Sandy AA (7) is a closer who could factor late.