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Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight – 1100Y Turf – 12:45pm
Win: Bright Note (2) – 60% confidence
Place: Paradise Ridge (8) – 25% confidence
Show: Havemercionus (7) – 25% confidence
Alternative: Charlie Brahms (10) – 25% confidence
Race 1 presents a split decision between Bright Note and Restless Mind for the top spot. Bright Note garners slightly more support across the board, appearing in the top two selections for three out of four analysts. Paradise Ridge is a consistent board hitter, making the horse a reliable option for vertical exotics. The lack of a unanimous favorite suggests a potential value opportunity if the public overbets one side of the duo.
Race 2 – Maiden Claiming – 1320Y Dirt – 01:15pm
Win: Deal Me Trips (4) – 100% confidence
Place: Big Mo (6) – 100% confidence
Show: Sultan’s Pride (1) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Make Me A Deal (3) – 16% confidence
This race features the strongest consensus on the card. Every single analyst surveyed has selected Deal Me Trips to win and Big Mo to place. This creates a highly rigid “1-2” prediction structure. While 100% alignment often signals a likely outcome, it also suppresses parimutuel value. The battle here is strictly for the show spot, with Sultan’s Pride seeing the most support.
Race 3 – Claiming – 1320Y Dirt – 01:45pm
Win: Yockey’s Drivethru (4) – 50% confidence
Place: Star Rock Star (2) – 33% confidence
Show: Asthecoldwindblows (3) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Starport (6) – 16% confidence
Opinion is divided in Race 3. Yockey’s Drivethru holds the plurality of win picks, but Star Rock Star has significant backing for both the win and place positions. This suggests a competitive race where the winner likely comes from these two. Asthecoldwindblows is a universally respected underneath contender, appearing in the place or show spot on almost every ticket.
Race 4 – Starter Allowance – 8F 110Y Turf – 02:15pm
Win: Sabi (4) – 33% confidence
Place: Write Off Jerry (3) – 33% confidence
Show: Allnight Moonlight (2) – 16% confidence
Alternative: Edgerton (7) – 16% confidence
This is one of the most contentious races on the card. There is no clear favorite, with four different horses receiving win selections (Allnight Moonlight, Calibrate, Sabi, Liar’s Poker). Write Off Jerry is the “glue” horse here, appearing frequently in the place and show spots, indicating analysts view him as a reliable board hitter but perhaps not a winner.
Race 5 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 8F 110Y Dirt – 02:45pm
Win: Paris Lily (2) – 100% confidence
Place: Amarth (3) – 83% confidence
Show: Amalfi Drive (4) – 66% confidence
Alternative: Conch Fried Rice (1) – 33% confidence
Similar to Race 2, Race 5 offers a “lock” scenario according to the analysts. Paris Lily is the unanimous selection to win. Amarth is nearly unanimous for the place position. This race presents a very static projected order of finish: 2-3-4.
Race 6 – Allowance Optional Claiming – 8F Turf – 03:15pm
Win: Boss Of All Bosses (3) – 50% confidence
Place: Laser Clad (2) – 33% confidence
Show: Kenmore West (9) – 33% confidence
Alternative: Causeway Benny (8) – 16% confidence
While Boss Of All Bosses commands the most win picks, the consensus is fragile. Three other horses (Laser Clad, Cajun Mitole, Kenmore West) also received top billing from different experts. This disagreement signals a race where trip and pace will be decisive.
Race 7 – Allowance – 8F 110Y Dirt – 03:45pm
Win: Fire Moon (3) – 42% confidence
Place: Anonima (2) – 42% confidence
Show: Sea To Sky (5) – 28% confidence
Alternative: Union Mist (7) – 14% confidence
A three-way battle is projected between Fire Moon, Sea To Sky, and Anonima. Each of these three horses appears in the Win, Place, or Show positions on nearly every analyst’s card, but in varying orders. Low Key acts as the spoiler, with one win pick and some exotic inclusion.
Race 8 – Allowance – 1210Y Turf – 04:15pm
Win: Betty’s Dance (4) – 50% confidence
Place: Tempting Eve (2) – 16% confidence
Show: I’m Mo Joke (3) – 50% confidence
Alternative: September Magic (8) – 16% confidence
Betty’s Dance and Tempting Eve are the clear class of the field according to the consensus. They account for 5 of the 6 win picks (split 3 to 2). I’m Mo Joke is a strong show pony/alternative contender.
Race 9 – Starter Optional Claiming – 1320Y Dirt – 04:45pm
Win: Berlaine (3) – 50% confidence
Place: Hittin My Stride (1) – 33% confidence
Show: Slam Diego (5) – 16% confidence
Alternative: Margoinabubblebath (4) – 16% confidence
The card concludes with a split opinion. Berlaine has the most win support, but Mamba Out has strong backing from FanDuel and At The Races. Hittin My Stride is the most consistent horse on the board, appearing in the top 3 on almost every list, usually in the place/show position.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1: Analysts suggest a focused approach here. An Exacta box of Bright Note (2) and Restless Mind (1) covers the primary win contentions. For Trifectas, keying Bright Note (2) over Paradise Ridge (8) and Restless Mind (1) provides a logical structure given the consistency of the place and show selections.
Race 2: The unanimous agreement on the top two finishers makes a Cold Exacta 4-6 the obvious play, though it will likely pay very short. To extract value, analysts recommend a Straight Trifecta 4-6-1 or a Trifecta Key 4 over 6 over All to catch a price in the third slot.
Race 3: An Exacta Box 2-4 is the prudent play given the split decision for the top spot. For deeper exotics, using 2 and 4 as dual keys in the first and second position (2,4 / 2,4 / 3,6) covers the most likely outcomes while allowing for Starport (6) or Asthecoldwindblows (3) to fill the trifecta.
Race 4: Volatility is high. Analysts suggest avoiding a straight win bet and instead playing a 4-horse Exacta Box (1,3,4,5) to capture the variance. A Superfecta keying Write Off Jerry (3) in the 2nd or 3rd position might be a smart structural play to leverage his consistency against the uncertainty of the winner.
Race 5: The recommendation is a Straight Trifecta 2-3-4. For those seeking slightly more coverage, a Trifecta 2 / 3,4 / 1,3,4 covers the minor variations involving Conch Fried Rice. This is a key race for multi-race wagers (Pick 3/4/5) as a “single.”
Race 6: This is a prime “spread” race. An Exacta Box 2-3-5-9 is recommended. The wide divergence in opinion makes the Trifecta payout potential high. Including Jeffrow (12) on the bottom of superfecta tickets could yield a massive return due to low probability but specific backing from FanDuel.
Race 7: A Three-Horse Exacta Box (2,3,5) is the most statistically sound play. The data suggests these three are significantly superior to the rest of the field. A Trifecta Box of the same three numbers (2-3-5) is also highly recommended.
Race 8: Focus on the 2 and 4. An Exacta Box 2-4 is the core play. To expand, a Trifecta Key 2,4 / 2,4 / 3,7 covers the top two finishing in either order with the most likely minor award winners underneath.
Race 9: Berlaine (3) appears to be the safest key, but the support for Mamba Out (7) is sharp. A Trifecta 3,7 / 1,3,5,7 / 1,3,4,5,7 leverages the strength of the top two while respecting the consistency of Hittin My Stride.
Value Play Observations
Race 1: Restless Mind (1) may offer value if the public gravitates heavily toward Bright Note (2) based on the turf distance. The split consensus indicates that Restless Mind has a legitimate win probability that might exceed its final odds if they drift above 3-1.
Race 2: Given the overwhelming consensus, Deal Me Trips (4) will likely be a heavy favorite (odds-on). There is no value in the win pool here. The only potential value lies in finding the correct third-place finisher to pair with the chalky 4-6 exacta. Sultan’s Pride (1) is the most logical candidate, but Gato Blue (5) would trigger a higher payout.
Race 3: Star Rock Star (2) appears to be a live underdog or value play if Yockey’s Drivethru (4) takes the bulk of the money. The support for Starport (6) from Racing Dudes and FanDuel is an outlier signal that shouldn’t be ignored; if 6 floats up in odds, it represents a strong value play against the grain.
Race 4: Calibrate (8) is selected to win by Fan ODds but ignored by others; this isolation often signals a high-value potential if the specific pace scenario Fan ODds anticipates comes to fruition. Conversely, Write Off Jerry (3) will likely be overbet in the place/show pools relative to his win probability.
Race 5: There is likely zero win value on Paris Lily (2). The betting opportunity is in the Daily Double or Pick 3 sequences leading into or out of this race. Conch Fried Rice (1) is the only horse with any analyst backing that could blow up the tote board if the top two falter.
Race 6: Kenmore West (9) is a fascinating value play; selected to win by Guaranteed Tip Sheet but relegated to show/alternative by others. If the odds float up, 9 is a strong win bet. Jeffrow (12) is the ultimate longshot value play mentioned only by FanDuel.
Race 7: Anonima (2) has a win selection and multiple place selections but might be the third choice in the wagering behind Fire Moon and Sea To Sky. If so, Anonima represents the best value in the Win pool.
Race 8: I’m Mo Joke (3) is the potential upsetter. Selected to win by Racing Dudes, if the top two engage in a speed duel, this horse could pick up the pieces at a price.
Race 9: Mamba Out (7) may offer higher odds than Berlaine (3) despite having strong win endorsements from two sources. If Mamba Out is 4-1 or higher, it is an overlay. Hittin My Stride (1) is a prime “show bet” lock or a reliable key for the bottom of vertical exotics.
Overall Wagering Strategy
Strongest Consensus Races
The analysis reveals two distinct “singles” for the day. Race 2 offers Deal Me Trips (4) as a unanimous selection across all six monitored handicappers. Similarly, Race 5 presents Paris Lily (2) as a unanimous choice to win. These two runners command 100% confidence from the analyst panel, suggesting they are the most likely winners on the card. They should serve as the foundational anchors for any Pick 3, Pick 4, or Pick 5 tickets.
Split-Opinion Races
Race 4 and Race 6 present the highest volatility. In Race 4, opinion is fractured among four different horses (Allnight Moonlight, Calibrate, Sabi, Liar’s Poker), indicating a complex pace scenario or evenly matched field. Race 6 sees similar disagreement with four different horses tipped to win. These races are “spread” legs in multi-race wagers—bettors should use the “ALL” button or go deep with coverage (4+ horses) to survive these sequences.
Multi-Race Sequences
A potentially lucrative Pick 3 sequence exists from Race 1 to Race 3. The sequence begins with a binary choice in Race 1 (1 or 2), moves to a “free square” single in Race 2 (Horse 4), and ends with a 2-horse decision in Race 3 (2 or 4). This structure allows for a condensed, affordable ticket with high probability. Conversely, the late Pick 4 (Races 6-9) requires significantly more capital due to the chaos in Race 6 and Race 7.
Exotic Value Opportunities
Race 7 offers a unique “Tri-Box” opportunity. The data isolates three horses—Anonima (2), Fire Moon (3), and Sea To Sky (5)—as far superior to the field. A simple three-horse box in the Exacta or Trifecta often yields positive ROI when the analysts successfully toss the remainder of the field. In Race 1 and Race 8, the consensus points to a clear “top duo,” making cold Exacta boxes (1-2 in R1, 2-4 in R8) the most efficient use of capital.
Environmental/Track Factors
The dirt races (R2, R3, R5, R7, R9) show much higher analyst agreement than the turf races. This suggests the form on the dirt surface at Fair Grounds is holding true, while the turf events are proving more unpredictable. Bettors should increase their bet sizing on dirt races where the data is clearer and reduce sizing (or demand higher odds) on the turf contests.
Key Takeaways
- Anchor the Card: Build all horizontal wagers (Pick 3/4/5) around Deal Me Trips (Race 2) and Paris Lily (Race 5). If either loses, most expert tickets are dead.
- Attack the Confusion: Use the disagreement in Race 4 and Race 6 to find value. When experts disagree, the public often spreads money inefficiently, creating overlays on capable horses like Calibrate (Race 4) or Kenmore West (Race 6).
- Respect the “Glue”: Horses like Hittin My Stride (Race 9) and Sultan’s Pride (Race 2) are designated as “underneath” locks. Use them exclusively in the 2nd and 3rd positions of Trifectas to boost payouts without risking the win bet.
