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Welcome to a beautiful Sunday at Sunland Park Racetrack and Casino. We have a nine-race card on tap today, headlined by the $80,000 La Coneja Stakes for New Mexico-bred fillies and mares. The La Coneja (Race 8) features the return of the “Queen of New Mexico Racing,” Corrina Corrina, who looks to avenge a rare defeat earlier this meet. The card is a mix of thoroughbred claiming, maiden, and allowance contests that should offer some solid betting opportunities, particularly in the pick sequences.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather for Sunland Park, New Mexico today is forecasted to be mostly sunny with a high of 68°F. Conditions are excellent for racing. Following some weather disruptions earlier in the meet, the track maintenance crew has the surface in prime condition. Expect a Fast dirt track.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Sunland Park typically plays as a speed-favoring surface, especially at sprint distances (5 to 6 furlongs). Horses who can secure the early lead or sit just off the pace in the “garden spot” often have a significant advantage. The rail (post 1) is generally a strong position in 5-furlong races due to the short run to the turn. In two-turn races (like today’s Race 6 at one mile), tactical speed is still king, but horses can close if the pace is hot. Watch the first few races closely; if front-runners are not stopping, upgrade your early speed horses significantly.
Race 1 Analysis
Post Time: 12:25 PM MT
Pace Analysis: In this 5-furlong dash, expect #1 Teddy’s Triumph to send hard from the rail. #4 Tsunami Gold and #9 Good Lovin also possess early foot. The pace should be honest, potentially setting up for a stalker if the leaders duel too hard.
Key Contenders: The morning line and consensus point to Blue Cheese Olive (3) as a major player here. This gelding fits well at this starter optional claiming level and should get a good trip just off the speed. Good Lovin (9) is trained by Justin Evans, a perennial powerhouse at Sunland. The outside post in a 5-furlong race can be tricky, but Evans places his horses aggressively, and this one drops in to a competitive spot.
Secondary Choices: Teddy’s Triumph (1) has the rail and the speed. If he clears the field early without expending too much energy, he could be tough to catch.
Selections: Win: Blue Cheese Olive (3) – 35% confidence Place: Good Lovin (9) – 25% confidence Show: Teddy’s Triumph (1) – 20% confidence Alternative: Laugh of the Party (2) – 10% confidence
Race 2 Analysis
Post Time: 12:50 PM MT
Pace Analysis: This is a claiming event for NM-bred fillies and mares. #1 Marksalot draws the rail and is trained by Todd Fincher, which usually guarantees a well-schooled break. #4 American Cherub also shows speed figures that suggest she will be involved early.
Key Contenders: Marksalot (1) is the horse to beat. The Fincher barn is deadly with NM-breds, and starting from the rail in a 5-furlong sprint is an advantage she likely won’t waste. American Cherub (4), conditioned by Dick Cappellucci and ridden by veteran Alfredo Juarez Jr., is the logical main danger. She should be sitting right off the 1 horse.
Secondary Choices: Charlotte’s Spider (5) offers some value underneath. She may not have the raw speed of the top two, but she can pick up the pieces if the pace collapses.
Selections: Win: Marksalot (1) – 40% confidence Place: American Cherub (4) – 30% confidence Show: Charlotte’s Spider (5) – 15% confidence Alternative: K P Blamengame (6) – 10% confidence
Race 3 Analysis
Post Time: 01:15 PM MT
Pace Analysis: A 5 1/2 furlong claiming race. #1 Rapid Expansion and #11 Held for Ransom (Joel Marr barn) should show initiative. #7 Beer Money often runs competitive races at this level.
Key Contenders: Beer Money (7) looks like a solid play here. Trainer Jeffrey Trujillo has him spotted well, and he avoids the traffic trouble of the inside posts. Rapid Expansion (1) is dangerous from the rail if he breaks clean.
Secondary Choices: Rio Cutie (10) and Held for Ransom (11) are interesting alternatives. The outside posts in 5.5-furlong races allow jockeys to see how the race develops before committing, which can be an advantage in lower-level claiming races where the inside speed often tires.
Selections: Win: Beer Money (7) – 30% confidence Place: Rapid Expansion (1) – 25% confidence Show: Held for Ransom (11) – 20% confidence Alternative: Rio Cutie (10) – 15% confidence
Race 4 Analysis
Post Time: 01:40 PM MT
Pace Analysis: Maiden claiming race for NM-breds going 6 1/2 furlongs. Maiden races are often chaotic. Bye Bye Russ (11) comes from the Todd Fincher barn, which excels with young horses. Expect him to be forwardly placed.
Key Contenders: Green Is the Daddy (1) is a strong consensus pick. Drawing the rail in a maiden claimer can be risky if the horse is timid, but his form suggests he is ready to graduate. Bye Bye Russ (11) is the primary threat. Fincher’s maidens often improve drastically from start to start.
Secondary Choices: No Mask Required (4) has shown flashes of ability and fits this class level well.
Selections: Win: Green Is the Daddy (1) – 35% confidence Place: Bye Bye Russ (11) – 30% confidence Show: No Mask Required (4) – 15% confidence Alternative: Gold Collector (6) – 10% confidence
Race 5 Analysis
Post Time: 02:05 PM MT
Pace Analysis: 6 1/2 furlongs claiming. Touch Of Glam (10) and Third Street (2) are the likely protagonists. Justin Evans (Third Street) and Dick Cappellucci (Touch Of Glam) are two of the top trainers on the grounds.
Key Contenders: Third Street (2) looks poised for a big effort. The Evans/Valenzuela combination hits at a high percentage, and this horse has the tactical speed to secure a good position early. Touch Of Glam (10) is the main danger, though the post position is a slight negative at this distance.
Selections: Win: Third Street (2) – 30% confidence Place: Touch Of Glam (10) – 25% confidence Show: Ham Sandwich (1) – 15% confidence Alternative: Wegonahavagoodtime (11) – 10% confidence
Race 6 Analysis
Post Time: 02:30 PM MT
Pace Analysis: This 1-mile Allowance Optional Claiming event features a short field of 7. Hardy Boy (1) has the rail and the route speed. Trainer Joel Marr has two entered here, the other being George Who (5).
Key Contenders: Hardy Boy (1) is the selection. He should control the tempo from the inside. When a quality horse gets loose on the lead at a mile at Sunland, they are very hard to run down. George Who (5), the stablemate, is the logical closer if the pace gets too hot, giving the Marr barn a powerful 1-2 punch.
Secondary Choices: American Solo (6) is a consistent check-earner who fits well in the exotics.
Selections: Win: Hardy Boy (1) – 45% confidence Place: George Who (5) – 30% confidence Show: American Solo (6) – 15% confidence Alternative: B Bold Charlie (4) – 10% confidence
Race 7 Analysis
Post Time: 02:55 PM MT
Pace Analysis: 5 1/2 furlongs Allowance. West of Me (3) and Stonehenge (1) are the class of this field.
Key Contenders: West of Me (3), trained by Todd Fincher, has shown excellent speed figures and should be right there at the wire. Stonehenge (1), from the Justin Evans barn with Luis Negron aboard, is the main rival. These two could easily hook up and lap the field.
Selections: Win: West of Me (3) – 40% confidence Place: Stonehenge (1) – 35% confidence Show: Ilean Right (9) – 10% confidence Alternative: Honor the Giants (6) – 5% confidence
Race 8 – La Coneja Stakes
Post Time: 03:20 PM MT
Pace Analysis: The feature race of the day. Corrina Corrina (2) is a stalker/closer who doesn’t need the lead to win. Run Away Bay (1) and Mo Money Time (3) may go out to set the pace.
Key Contenders: Corrina Corrina (2) is the standout. She is a multiple stakes winner and the richest NM-bred female in history. While she was beaten recently by Mo Money Time (3), that loss was a rare blemish on an otherwise stellar record. Expect her to bounce back in a big way today. First Again (5) is a quality mare who can pick up the pieces if the favorite falters, but she is strictly racing for second place if Corrina Corrina brings her A-game.
Longshots: Mo Money Time (3) proved she can beat the champ, so she must be respected, but repeating that performance will be difficult.
Selections: Win: Corrina Corrina (2) – 85% confidence Place: First Again (5) – 10% confidence Show: Mo Money Time (3) – 5% confidence Alternative: Run Away Bay (1) – 0% confidence
Race 9 Analysis
Post Time: 03:45 PM MT
Pace Analysis: The nightcap is a 6.5-furlong claiming event. Blocked (7) drops into a very winnable spot.
Key Contenders: Blocked (7) is the day’s “get out” horse. Trained by Justin Evans, this gelding has faced much tougher company and should outclass this field. Ten Figures (11) has been in good form and is the most likely runner-up.
Selections: Win: Blocked (7) – 50% confidence Place: Ten Figures (11) – 25% confidence Show: Pray for Me Ray (9) – 15% confidence Alternative: Cog (1) – 5% confidence
Jockey Notes and Insights
Tracy Hebert continues to be a rider to watch in stakes races. His partnership with Corrina Corrina is legendary in New Mexico; he knows exactly when to push the button. Luis Negron and Christian Ramos are battling for dominance in the standings. Negron riding for Justin Evans (Race 7, Race 9) is a high-percentage angle. Alfredo Juarez Jr. is a veteran who excels at saving ground. Watch him on American Cherub (Race 2) and Touch Of Glam (Race 5); he often finds holes on the rail that other jockeys miss.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Justin Evans has entries in Races 1, 5, 7, and 9. He is aggressive with his spotting, often dropping horses into claiming levels where they are dominant. Blocked (Race 9) is a prime example of this. Todd Fincher has key entrants in Races 2, 4, and 7. His young horses (Maidens and 3-year-olds) are almost always live. Joel Marr has a stranglehold on Race 6 with two strong entries.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The Lock of the Day: Race 8, Corrina Corrina (2). She is the class of the field. Single her in all horizontal wagers (Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5).
Value Play: Race 1, Blue Cheese Olive (3). At 4-1 or better, he offers great value to start the day.
Daily Double (Race 7-8): Race 7: 1, 3 Race 8: 2 (Cost for $2 ticket: $4)
Late Pick 4 (Races 6-9): Race 6: 1, 5 Race 7: 1, 3 Race 8: 2 Race 9: 7, 11 (Cost for $0.50 ticket: $4)
Betting Angle: In the sprints (Races 1, 2, 3), bet the speed horses on the inside (Posts 1-3). If the track is playing fast as expected, they will be very difficult to pass. Conversely, in Race 9 (6.5 Furlongs), look for Blocked (7) to make a move on the turn; the extra distance helps the class droppers.
