Mahoning Valley – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the February 9, 2026 card


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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Mahoning Valley Race Course presents a ten-race card to kick off the week on this Monday, February 9. The card is anchored by a mix of claiming events and Ohio-bred Maiden Special Weight contests, offering a blend of established local form and up-and-coming talent. The sequence features mostly sprint distances on the dirt, with the opener being the solitary route race at one mile and 70 yards.

The program includes several full fields, particularly in the later races, which should provide decent value for handicappers. We see a strong presence from top local connections, including trainers Jeffrey Radosevich, Robert Gorham, and Jason DaCosta, alongside leading riders like Luis Raul Rivera, Jose Bracho, and Erik Barbaran.

Noteworthy regarding the roster are several scratches listed on the card which will impact the pace dynamics, particularly in the later sequences. Handicappers should pay close attention to the track condition, as winter racing in Ohio often deals with freeze-thaw cycles that can bias the surface.

Weather and Track Conditions

Forecast: The weather for Austintown, Ohio, is expected to be typical for early February. Expect overcast skies with temperatures hovering in the mid-to-high 30s. There is a slight chance of winter precipitation, but conditions should remain largely dry during race hours.

Track Condition: Based on the forecast and recent trends, the track is expected to be Fast. However, if moisture remains from overnight, it could be rated “Good.” The Mahoning dirt surface often tightens up in colder weather, favoring speed, but if the maintenance crew has it sealed against moisture, it can sometimes play kindly to front-runners.

Track Bias: Mahoning Valley typically features a speed-favoring profile, especially in 6-furlong sprints. Horses that can clear early and save ground on the turn often hold an advantage. However, in the deeper winter months, look for an “outside flow” bias where the rail can become dead, forcing horses to rally 3-4 paths off the fence. For the 1 Mile 70 Yards distance (Race 1), the short run to the first turn places a premium on inside post positions and tactical speed.

Race 1 Analysis

Post Time: 12:15 PM EST Distance: 1 Mile 70 Yards

Pace Analysis

In this route opener, the pace appears moderate. Charlieslitldevil from the rail has some tactical speed, but with the scratch of Wilding Lane, the complexion changes. Sligotime and Bozaano are capable of sitting close. Without a confirmed speedball, the early fractions should be comfortable, allowing the horse with the best late kick or the one who gets the jump on the far turn to prevail.

Key Contenders

Bozaano (3) looks like the horse to beat here. Trained by Robert Gorham and ridden by Erik Barbaran, this gelding fits well at this claiming level. Gorham is a high-percentage trainer at this meet, and Barbaran knows how to time a ride at this distance. The horse should benefit from the scratching of speed rivals and can stalk the pace before making a move.

Sligotime (2) draws well inside and should be involved early. Trained by Shane Spiess, this entrant has been competitive and should appreciate the ground-saving trip. If the pace is crawling, Sligotime might find himself on the lead by default, which makes him dangerous.

Secondary Choices

Charlieslitldevil (1) gets the rail and Parker. While somewhat inconsistent, the post position advantage at this distance is significant. If he breaks sharp, he could try to wire the field in a paceless race.

Longshots

Klimtster (6) offers some intrigue for the exotics. While his recent form might not jump off the page, he could pick up pieces if the top choices duel or falter.

Betting Strategy

Focus on Bozaano to win. A small exacta box with Sligotime protects the investment.

Selections

Win: Bozaano (3) – 35% confidence

Place: Sligotime (2) – 25% confidence

Show: Charlieslitldevil (1) – 20% confidence

Alternative: Klimtster (6) – 10% confidence

Race 2 Analysis

Post Time: 12:43 PM EST Distance: 6 Furlongs

Pace Analysis

This Maiden Special Weight for Ohio-breds features young horses where early speed is often the deciding factor. Red Ohio Bred possesses natural speed and draws an attack post. With Legal Jargon scratched, the pace scenario clarifies, likely leaving Red Ohio Bred and Money Magic to vie for the front.

Key Contenders

Red Ohio Bred (3) is the clear standout. Trainer Jason DaCosta and jockey Rocco Bowen are a formidable combination. DaCosta excels with young state-breds, and this horse has shown flashes of ability that should handle this field. Expect him to be sent hard from the gate to clear the field.

Money Magic (1) draws the rail. If he breaks cleanly, he has the inside path to challenge the favorite. The rail can be tricky for inexperienced horses if they get intimidated, but the post advantage is undeniable in a sprint.

Secondary Choices

My Paisan (2) sits between the two speeds and could work out a nice stalking trip. If the top two wear each other out, My Paisan will be the one benefiting in the lane.

Longshots

Lowells Legacy (4) is a price play to hit the board. While he may lack the raw turn-of-foot of the top choices, he could plod into a share of the purse.

Betting Strategy

Red Ohio Bred looks like a potential single in multi-race wagers. An Exacta straight 3-1 is the logical play.

Selections

Win: Red Ohio Bred (3) – 45% confidence

Place: Money Magic (1) – 25% confidence

Show: My Paisan (2) – 15% confidence

Alternative: Lowells Legacy (4) – 10% confidence

Race 3 Analysis

Post Time: 01:11 PM EST Distance: 6 Furlongs

Pace Analysis

This claiming event for fillies and mares should see honest fractions. Cowgirl Sara and Chloes Angel have speed. Mobil Memory can be tactical. The race will likely be decided by who can sustain their run coming out of the turn.

Key Contenders

Mobil Memory (7) is the class of the field. Trained by Jeffrey Radosevich and ridden by Jose Bracho, this mare draws the outside post, which is perfect for a clear stalking trip. She won't have to deal with traffic and can move when ready. Radosevich is dominant in these spots.

Kat Trax (6) represents the Gorham barn. She has been running competitively and fits this condition well. Drawing just inside the favorite allows Angel Diaz to track the same path.

Secondary Choices

Chloes Angel (1) has the rail but will need to avoid getting pinned down. If she can secure position early without using too much energy, she is a threat to hang on for a slice.

Longshots

Commissioner D (4) is a mid-pack runner who could spice up the trifecta if the pace collapses, though that seems unlikely given the field size.

Betting Strategy

Mobil Memory is a strong win candidate. A cold exacta 7-6 looks appealing given the connection strength of the top two.

Selections

Win: Mobil Memory (7) – 40% confidence

Place: Kat Trax (6) – 25% confidence

Show: Chloes Angel (1) – 15% confidence

Alternative: Cowgirl Sara (5) – 10% confidence

Race 4 Analysis

Post Time: 01:39 PM EST Distance: 5 1/2 Furlongs

Pace Analysis

At 5 1/2 furlongs, speed is king. With Powerful Phil scratched, the race opens up. Sweet Lemon Drop and Gapper will likely show initiative. This short sprint distance requires an alert break; anyone breaking slow is effectively eliminated.

Key Contenders

Gapper (8) draws the far outside, which is often a great spot at this distance at Mahoning. He can watch the break and clear the field or sit just off the flank of the leader. Jose Bracho stays aboard, which is a positive sign.

Sweet Lemon Drop (5) is an 8-year-old veteran who knows his job. He has plenty of back class and speed. If he can get loose or sit a comfortable second, he will be tough to pass in the stretch.

Secondary Choices

Matthew's Patriot (1) has the rail but needs to be hustled. If he gets buried, his race is over, but if he flashes speed, he can contend for the minor awards.

Longshots

Condemnation (6) is a deeper closer who needs a meltdown up front. At 5 1/2 furlongs, that's a lot to ask, but he could pick up the pieces for third or fourth.

Betting Strategy

Gapper provides value from the outside post. Win bet on 8.

Selections

Win: Gapper (8) – 30% confidence

Place: Sweet Lemon Drop (5) – 25% confidence

Show: Matthew's Patriot (1) – 20% confidence

Alternative: Condemnation (6) – 10% confidence

Race 5 Analysis

Post Time: 02:07 PM EST Distance: 6 Furlongs

Pace Analysis

A large field of 11 fillies and mares means traffic trouble is a real possibility. High speed is expected from Twerk and Tale of the Lyon. The pace should be hot, setting it up for a closer or a stalker with a clean trip.

Key Contenders

Lady Lottie (7) is another Radosevich entrant that commands respect. She has the tactical speed to sit just off the leaders and the stamina to finish. Barbaran in the irons is a huge plus. She fits this class level perfectly.

Truly Inclusive (11) draws the extreme outside. While the post can be a disadvantage due to ground loss on the turn, it guarantees a clean trip. Johanna Urieta does a great job with her runners, and Parker is a veteran rider who won't panic. If she can tuck in, she's a major player.

Secondary Choices

Tale Of The Lyon (4) will be part of the early pace picture. If she shakes loose, she could get brave, but the pressure from others might soften her up for the closers.

Longshots

Box Step (1) is an 8-year-old mare who draws the rail. She will save all the ground. If the rail is good, she could sneak into the superfecta at a big price.

Betting Strategy

Lady Lottie is the most reliable option. Use Truly Inclusive in exotics.

Selections

Win: Lady Lottie (7) – 30% confidence

Place: Truly Inclusive (11) – 25% confidence

Show: Tale Of The Lyon (4) – 15% confidence

Alternative: Twerk (3) – 10% confidence

Race 6 Analysis

Post Time: 02:35 PM EST Distance: 6 Furlongs

Pace Analysis

This Maiden Special Weight splits the baby race card. Chasing Orion and Dr Spirito look to be the primary speed. Young horses are unpredictable, but the connections here give us clues.

Key Contenders

Chasing Orion (8) is the one to beat. The Jason DaCosta barn is lethal with maidens, and the outside post gives Luis Batista options. He should improve off any prior experience and looks spotted to win.

Rascal Flash (5) comes from the Robert Gorham barn with Cedillo riding. Gorham's horses are usually well-prepared for their debuts or early starts. Expect a professional effort.

Secondary Choices

Dr Spirito (1) has the rail. If he breaks poorly, he's in trouble, but if he sends, he could lead them a long way.

Longshots

Rivers Of Wealth (6) gets a weight break with the apprentice/weight allowance (117 lbs). This lightness can help in the final furlong of a maiden race.

Betting Strategy

Win bet on Chasing Orion. Exacta box 8-5.

Selections

Win: Chasing Orion (8) – 40% confidence

Place: Rascal Flash (5) – 25% confidence

Show: Dr Spirito (1) – 15% confidence

Alternative: Rivers Of Wealth (6) – 10% confidence

Race 7 Analysis

Post Time: 03:03 PM EST Distance: 6 Furlongs

Pace Analysis

This is a higher-level claiming race with a purse of $30,100. The scratches of Chanel Spirit and Flashy N take out two key players. Lionistic and She's Crafty become the main focus. The pace should be moderate, favoring those near the front.

Key Contenders

Lionistic (4) trained by Jeffrey Radosevich is the horse to beat. She has consistent figures that fit this group and retains Erik Barbaran. She should sit a perfect trip just off the speed and pounce in the lane.

She's Crafty (1) draws the rail. She is a gritty campaigner who knows how to win. Angel Diaz will likely send her or sit the pocket. She is dangerous if allowed to dictate terms.

Secondary Choices

Instigation (5) ridden by Rocco Bowen is a threat. Bowen is an aggressive rider who fits this horse well. She can contend for the minor placings.

Longshots

National Diamond (3) has Fernando Salazar Becerra aboard. She could improve at a price and clunk up for third or fourth.

Betting Strategy

Lionistic is a strong win play.

Selections

Win: Lionistic (4) – 45% confidence

Place: She's Crafty (1) – 25% confidence

Show: Instigation (5) – 15% confidence

Alternative: National Diamond (3) – 10% confidence

Race 8 Analysis

Post Time: 03:31 PM EST Distance: 6 Furlongs

Pace Analysis

With Patty's Having Fun scratched, the field dynamic shifts. Here Kitty Kitty and Crackle should be forwardly placed. It's a lower-level claiming race, so reliability is low.

Key Contenders

Here Kitty Kitty (4) for trainer Robert Gorham looks best. She has the back class to handle this field and should get a good trip from the middle post.

Geegee's Story (3) represents the Radosevich barn. While not a superstar, she lands in a spot where she can be competitive. Luis Raul Rivera riding is a major plus.

Secondary Choices

Crackle (1) on the rail needs to go. If she clears, she can steal it. If she gets hooked, she will fold.

Longshots

Thirsty Accountant (10) is stuck in the parking lot post 10. However, Larry Smith is a crafty trainer. If the pace is hot, she will be the one closing late at big odds.

Betting Strategy

Here Kitty Kitty to win. Box 3-4 in exactas.

Selections

Win: Here Kitty Kitty (4) – 35% confidence

Place: Geegee's Story (3) – 25% confidence

Show: Crackle (1) – 15% confidence

Alternative: Thirsty Accountant (10) – 10% confidence

Race 9 Analysis

Post Time: 03:59 PM EST Distance: 6 Furlongs

Pace Analysis

An Allowance contest. Carnival Rock is scratched. Big Prankster and Chris's Revenge give Radosevich a strong hand (though not coupled as an entry). The pace will be honest.

Key Contenders

Big Prankster (6) is the top selection. He has shown good form recently and fits this allowance condition well. Bracho riding for Radosevich is the recurring theme of the day for a reason—they win.

Blistering (8) trained by Eric Reed is a serious contender. Reed ships in with intent. Oliveros takes the mount. The outside draw allows him to see the field.

Secondary Choices

Chris's Revenge (10) is the “other” Radosevich. Drawing post 10 is tough, but he has speed. If Big Prankster falters, this one could pick up the slack.

Longshots

Sneaky Sneaky (9) could sneak into the trifecta at a price.

Betting Strategy

Big Prankster to win. Exacta box 6-8.

Selections

Win: Big Prankster (6) – 35% confidence

Place: Blistering (8) – 30% confidence

Show: Chris's Revenge (10) – 15% confidence

Alternative: Sneaky Sneaky (9) – 10% confidence

Race 10 Analysis

Post Time: 04:27 PM EST Distance: 6 Furlongs

Pace Analysis

The nightcap is a full field of Ohio-bred maidens. Traffic will be the main issue. Wild Domain and Silver B B should be prominent.

Key Contenders

Wild Domain (5) looks like the graduate here. Trained by Jason DaCosta with Batista up, this gelding has likely been prepping for this spot. His work tab suggests readiness.

Silver B B (1) draws the rail. In a 12-horse field, the shortest way around is valuable. If he has the speed to hold his position, he's a threat.

Secondary Choices

Lucky Kater (7) gets Cedillo. A steady improver who fits well in the middle of this pack.

Longshots

Kettle Coalmine (6) is a price play for the exotics.

Betting Strategy

Wild Domain to close out the card.

Selections

Win: Wild Domain (5) – 30% confidence

Place: Silver B B (1) – 20% confidence

Show: Lucky Kater (7) – 15% confidence

Alternative: Kettle Coalmine (6) – 10% confidence

Jockey Notes and Insights

Luis Raul Rivera: Rivera is currently one of the strongest riders on the grounds. He excels at saving ground and is particularly dangerous on speed horses. Watch him in Race 3 on Chloes Angel and Race 8 on Geegee's Story; if he gets the lead, he is hard to reel in.

Jose Bracho: Bracho is the go-to rider for the Radosevich barn. His timing in sprints is impeccable. He is riding several live mounts today (Mobil Memory in R3, Gapper in R4, Big Prankster in R9). When Bracho and Radosevich team up, it is a high-percentage angle.

Erik Barbaran: Barbaran is an excellent tactical rider, particularly for trainer Robert Gorham. He is aboard Bozaano (R1) and Lionistic (R7). He tends to ride patient races, making him a great asset for stalkers and closers.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Jeffrey Radosevich: The dominant force at Mahoning Valley. He has entries in multiple races today (R3, R5, R7, R8, R9). His horses are almost always well-meant and heavily bet. In claiming races, his stock often drops down to win.

Jason DaCosta: DaCosta is the premier trainer for young horses and Ohio-breds. His entries in the Maiden Special Weight races (R2, R6, R10) are must-uses. He rarely sends a young horse to the post without them being fit and schooled.

Robert Gorham: Gorham runs a high-percentage outfit and places his horses realistically. Look for his runners in the lower-level claiming ranks (R1, R8) where they often outclass the field.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Best Bet of the Day: Race 2: Red Ohio Bred (3). With the scratch of his main rival, this DaCosta trainee should control the race from the start. He looks like the most likely winner on the card.

Value Play: Race 4: Gapper (8). In a race void of reliable form, Gapper's outside post at 5 1/2 furlongs is a significant edge. He may float up in the odds due to the low-profile connections compared to others, offering value to win.

Exotic Wagering Strategy (Pick 4 – Races 7-10):

  • Leg 1 (Race 7): 4, 1 (Lionistic, She's Crafty)
  • Leg 2 (Race 8): 4, 3 (Here Kitty Kitty, Geegee's Story)
  • Leg 3 (Race 9): 6, 8 (Big Prankster, Blistering)
  • Leg 4 (Race 10): 5, 1, 7 (Wild Domain, Silver B B, Lucky Kater)
    • Cost is manageable and covers the key contenders in the late sequence.

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