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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Today’s card at Sunland Park features a standard 10-race program highlighted by two black-type stakes events: the $80,000 Jamison Memorial Stakes for New Mexico-bred sprinters and the $65,000 Winsham Lad Stakes for older routers. The card is expected to be dominated by local powerhouse connections, specifically trainers Justin Evans and Todd Fincher, who have formidable entries throughout the day.

Weather and Track Conditions

• Forecast: Cloudy skies with a high near 69°F. Winds light from the southeast at 5 mph.
• Track Condition: Fast.
• Track Bias:
  • Sprints (5F – 6.5F): The track typically favors early speed. Inside post positions (1-4) are advantageous, particularly for horses with “Early” or “Early/Presser” run styles.
  • Routes (1 Mile): Inside posts are critical due to the short run to the first turn. Horses capable of securing a forward position along the rail often outperform deep closers.

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Race 1: Claiming $10,000

Distance: 6 Furlongs Analysis: A field of veteran claimers starts the day. Expect a moderate pace where the pressers may get the first jump on the leaders. The class relief for the inside runners is the deciding factor here.

• Key Contenders: Panuco (2), Sweet River Baines (6)
• Secondary Choices: Targaryis (4)
• Longshots: Mississippi Man (3)

Race 2: Maiden Claiming $10,000 (NM Bred)

Distance: 6 Furlongs Analysis: Typical chaotic maiden claiming event. In a field lacking dominant speed, horses that can sit close to the pace without being forced wide have the advantage. Consistency is scarce, so recent form is prioritized.

• Key Contenders: Ringo (4), Twist ‘n Sport (9)
• Secondary Choices: Regal’s Arch (1)
• Longshots: Stormwire (5)

Race 3: Allowance Optional Claiming $20,000

Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs Analysis: Speed from the rail suggests a potential match race on the front end. If the pace heats up early, it could set up nicely for a stalker, but the rail bias at this distance makes the inside speed dangerous.

• Key Contenders: Positivity (1), Grey Storm (2)
• Secondary Choices: Zia Zapper (8)

Race 4: Claiming $7,500

Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs Analysis: A bottom-level claimer where the Justin Evans barn holds a very strong hand with multiple entries. The pace should be contested, but class usually prevails at this level.

• Key Contenders: Warriors Mark (3), I’magambler (4)
• Secondary Choices: Royal Laughter (6)
• Longshots: Jeeps Stride (1)

Race 5: Claiming $12,500 (NM Bred)

Distance: 5 1/2 Furlongs Analysis: In this short sprint, the break is everything. The rail horse has significant speed figures and should try to wire the field. Traffic trouble is a major risk for those drawn wide.

• Key Contenders: Peekay (1), Taz Marking (3)
• Secondary Choices: Lime Chilton (9)

Race 6: Allowance (NM Bred Fillies/Mares)

Distance: 6 Furlongs Analysis: A competitive allowance for state-bred fillies. The pace should be honest with speed signed on from both the rail and the middle of the gate.

• Key Contenders: Mama Was a Rocket (6), Quite Lovely (1)
• Secondary Choices: Trust Anabelle (2)

Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming $25,000

Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs Analysis: The rail draw is a significant factor here, providing the inside horse with the ability to control the pace or sit a pocket trip. Outside runners will need to work hard to clear.

• Key Contenders: Fun Money (1), Vegas Love (2)
• Secondary Choices: Divine Wind (9)

Race 8: Jamison Memorial Stakes ($80,000)

Distance: 6 1/2 Furlongs Analysis: The first feature of the day is a clash between a rising star 4-year-old and a seasoned stakes veteran. Both are sons of the sire Marking. The youngster brings superior recent form and versatility, while the veteran has the back class and the rail.

• Key Contenders: Mojica (3), Antonios Mark (1)
• Secondary Choices: Marking Canyon (4)
• Longshots: Holy Hank (7)

Race 9: Winsham Lad Stakes ($65,000)

Distance: 1 Mile Analysis: The route feature showcases a Grade 3 winner shipping in to face local stakes company. This shipper has a distinct class edge over the field. The pace should be moderate, favoring horses that can secure position before the first turn.

• Key Contenders: Cornishman (2), Ze’bul (8)
• Secondary Choices: Bearings (9), Mine That Star (7)

Race 10: Claiming $7,500 (Fillies/Mares)

Distance: 5 1/2 Furlongs Analysis: The card concludes with a sprint where the inside draw is key. A dropper landing in the rail post is a prime candidate to wake up and improve significantly off recent form.

• Key Contenders: Discreet Pleasure (1), Your Money (2)
• Secondary Choices: Jolie Candy (11)
• Longshots: Runaway Goddess (9)