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Race 1 Claiming – 1320Y – Dirt – 1:25 PM
Win: SWEET RIVER BAINES (6) – 83% confidence
Place: PANUCO (2) – 50% confidence
Show: MISSISSIPPI MAN (3) – 33% confidence
Alternative: TARGARYIS (4) – 17% confidence
Race Notes: There is exceptionally strong agreement among analysts regarding the top selection here, with nearly every source pointing to the horse coming off a recent Albuquerque win. The secondary market favorite also garners significant respect, particularly for the runner-up spot. The consensus suggests a fairly predictable outcome between these two principals, making them a logical anchor for early daily doubles.
Race 2 Maiden Claiming – 1320Y – Dirt – 1:51 PM
Win: RINGO (4) – 50% confidence
Place: TWIST ‘N SPORT (9) – 33% confidence
Show: STORMWIRE (5) – 17% confidence
Alternative: APREMONT (6) – 17% confidence
Race Notes: This race presents a classic duel between two runners. Opinion is evenly split, though one runner edges out the other slightly in win nominations. The consistent support for both across the top two slots suggests an exacta box is the most statistically sound approach. The data indicates a significant drop-off in confidence for the third and fourth spots.
Race 3 Allowance Optional Claiming – 1430Y – Dirt – 2:17 PM
Win: FINAL STORM (4) – 67% confidence
Place: LISTENTOTHEMUSIC (6) – 33% confidence
Show: POSITIVITY (1) – 50% confidence
Alternative: TIME TRAVELIN (7) – 17% confidence
Race Notes: Analysts favor the horse stepping down in class or bouncing back from a stakes run, giving it a clear edge in win predictions. However, the competition for the minor awards is fierce, with one rival appearing on almost every ticket in the place or show position. This “key horse over consistent placer” structure is ideal for trifecta wagering.
Race 4 Claiming – 1430Y – Dirt – 2:43 PM
Win: WARRIORS MARK (3) – 43% confidence
Place: BE A PRO (2) – 43% confidence
Show: JEEPS STRIDE (1) – 28% confidence
Alternative: SEAHAWK CODY (7) – 14% confidence
Race Notes: This is one of the more contentious races on the card. Win support is fractured among three runners, with two horses essentially tied for the top spot. The divergence in opinion, particularly regarding the place and show slots, suggests a high potential for value in the exotics pools if the favorite falters.
Race 5 Claiming – 1210Y – Dirt – 3:09 PM
Win: STACKERS (11) – 43% confidence
Place: SAPELLO RIDDLER (12) – 57% confidence
Show: PEEKAY (1) – 28% confidence
Alternative: AWESOME ACCOUNT (5) – 14% confidence
Race Notes: This race is a wide-open affair with no clear dominant force. Three different horses received multiple win or place endorsements, indicating a chaotic finish is likely. The data shows strong support for the 12 horse underneath, making it a valuable key for vertical wagers despite the lack of consensus on the winner.
Race 6 Allowance – 1320Y – Dirt – 3:37 PM
Win: MAMA WAS A ROCKET (6) – 83% confidence
Place: BYE BYE HOLLEY (3) – 50% confidence
Show: MARKED KISS (9) – 33% confidence
Alternative: LA JOLLA BEACH (7) – 17% confidence
Race Notes: This is the single strongest consensus play of the day. All but one analyst selected the favorite to win, citing class relief and past performance at this track. The exactas here should be straightforward, with the secondary pick also seeing very high agreement. This is a potential “single” for multi-race sequences.
Race 7 Allowance Optional Claiming – 1430Y – Dirt – 4:04 PM
Win: FUN MONEY (1) – 57% confidence
Place: BUZZWORTHY (8) – 28% confidence
Show: CHARLEE MAE (7) – 28% confidence
Alternative: DIVINE WIND (9) – 14% confidence
Race Notes: Confidence returns here with a solid favorite identified by the majority of sources. However, the minor podium spots are hotly contested between two other runners. The pattern suggests a “1 over 7/8” structure, as analysts seem unsure which of the two challengers will complete the exacta.
Race 8 Jamison Memorial Stakes – 1430Y – Dirt – 4:32 PM
Win: MOJICA (3) – 83% confidence
Place: ANTONIOS MARK (1) – 50% confidence
Show: HOLY HANK (7) – 17% confidence
Alternative: DAVE’S ENCHANTMENT (5) – 17% confidence
Race Notes: Another high-confidence race, with the favorite commanding significant respect across the board following recent stake successes. The agreement on the runner-up is also notable, providing a very stable picture for bettors. Divergence only really appears in the show and superfecta positions.
Race 9 Winsham Lad Stakes – 8F – Dirt – 5:00 PM
Win: ZE’BUL (8) – 33% confidence
Place: CORNISHMAN (2) – 33% confidence
Show: BEARINGS (9) – 33% confidence
Alternative: MINE THAT STAR (7) – 17% confidence
Race Notes: This stakes race is highly volatile. While one horse edges out the win consensus slightly, three different runners received win votes, and one source went in a completely different direction with a unique pick. This disagreement signals a prime opportunity for value hunting or spreading deep in multi-race wagers.
Race 10 Claiming – 1210Y – Dirt – 5:20 PM
Win: JOLIE CANDY (11) – 83% confidence
Place: YOUR MONEY (2) – 50% confidence
Show: REGAL’S CHARM (5) – 17% confidence
Alternative: RUNAWAY GODDESS (9) – 17% confidence
Race Notes: The card concludes with a strong consensus favorite. Analysts are largely united on the winner, who broke their maiden recently. The runner-up spot has a clear favorite as well, though one source introduces chaos with alternative exotic candidates. This looks like a “save the best for last” scenario for favorite backers.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1: The consensus is strong for the 6 and 2. A straight Exacta 6-2 is the logical play, but a Trifecta Key 6 over 2,3,4 covers the minor disagreement for third.
Race 2: With a coin flip between 4 and 9, an Exacta Box 4-9 is the safest route. For better value, use them both on top of a Trifecta wheel with 5 and 6 underneath (4,9 / 4,9 / 5,6).
Race 3: The 4 is the clear win choice, but 1 and 6 are heavily backed for placings. A Trifecta 4 / 1,6 / 1,6,7 capitalizes on the specific hierarchy analysts have identified.
Race 4: Vulnerability at the top makes this a great race for a Superfecta Box: 1, 2, 3, 7. If playing vertically, key the 2 and 3 on top of the 1 and 7.
Race 5: Chaos race. Consider a Trifecta Box 1, 5, 11, 12. The 12 has strong underneath support, so using 12 in the 2nd and 3rd positions of trifectas could yield value if a higher-priced horse pops on top.
Race 6: The “cold” Exacta 6-3 is highly indicated. To extract value, play a straight Superfecta 6 / 3 / 9 / All, leveraging the certainty at the top to catch a longshot in fourth.
Race 7: The 1 is a solid key. Play a Trifecta Key 1 over 7, 8, 9. The battle for second between 7 and 8 suggests they should be used equally in the place slot.
Race 8: Similar to Race 6, the 3 and 1 are locked in by analysts. An Exacta 3-1 is the baseline. A Trifecta 3 / 1 / 4,5,7 attempts to narrow down the show pool.
Race 9: Spread race. In Pick 3s or Pick 4s, use ALL of 2, 8, 9, 7. For a standalone bet, an Exacta Box 2-8-9 covers the main disputing parties.
Race 10: Finish with a Superfecta Key 11 over 2, 5, 9. The 11 is a standout, and the 2 is a likely second, but the bottom of the ticket is open for price.
Value Play Observations
Race 1: PANUCO (2) is a strong consensus alternative to the favorite. If the 6 takes excessive money, the 2 offers excellent value as a win bet or heavy place play.
Race 4: WARRIORS MARK (3) has split support but strong “watch out for” indicators. If the 2 is overbet, the 3 represents a distinct overlay opportunity.
Race 5: SAPELLO RIDDLER (12) appears frequently in the place/show slots of analyst picks but rarely on top. This suggests the horse is consistently competitive but may be undervalued in the win pool; a good candidate for “across the board” wagers if odds float above 5-1.
Race 9: MINE THAT STAR (7) is the top pick of one source but ignored by most others. In a contentious field, this isolation often creates a massive overlay. If the public focuses on the 2 and 8, the 7 becomes a high-value contrarian play.
Overall Wagering Strategy
Strongest Consensus Races The card features three distinct pillars of stability: Race 6 (MAMA WAS A ROCKET), Race 8 (MOJICA), and Race 10 (JOLIE CANDY). In all three instances, confidence exceeds 80%, with analysts citing class advantages and recent form as decisive factors. These runners should be treated as the foundational “singles” for any horizontal wagers (Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5). Backing them to win is likely to yield short prices, so the value lies in using them to anchor tickets that spread deeper in the more volatile legs.
Split-Opinion Races Race 2 and Race 9 present the most significant analytical tension. In Race 2, the split is binary between Ringo and Twist ‘N Sport, suggesting a two-horse strategy is sufficient. However, Race 9 is a true scramble with four different horses receiving legitimate support. This disagreement among experts often signals a race where the “favorite” is vulnerable and the winner could come from the middle of the pack. These are the races where you must allocate the largest portion of your budget to spread coverage.
Multi-Race Sequences A prime opportunity for a “Pick 3” sequence exists from Race 6 through Race 8. You have a dominant single in Race 6 and another in Race 8. Sandwiched between them is Race 7, which has a favorite (Fun Money) but valid opposition. A structure of 1 / 1,7,8 / 1 creates a highly affordable ticket with significant upside if the middle leg produces a mild upset. Alternatively, the late Pick 4 (Races 7-10) is anchored by strong opinions in three of the four legs (8, 10, and to a lesser extent 7), allowing you to go “All” or very deep in the chaotic Race 9 without breaking the bank.
Exotic Value Opportunities The “Exotic Value” lies in Race 5 and Race 9. In Race 5, the lack of a dominant favorite combined with consistent “underneath” support for the 12 horse creates a perfect storm for trifecta payouts. The public often struggles to handicap these wide-open claiming races, leading to inflated pools. Structuring tickets that key consistent placers (like the 12) in the second and third spots while rotating win candidates can capture large payouts for small investments.
Environmental/Track Factors The races are run on dirt with varying distances from 1210 yards to 1430 yards and one 8-furlong route. Note that in the shorter sprints (Race 1, 2, 5), the consensus leans heavily on horses with recent “winning” form or “speed” figures (like Sweet River Baines). In the route races (Race 9), analysts are more willing to forgive a recent loss if the class level was higher. Pay attention to the track bias early; if speed is holding in Race 1 and 2, upgrade the chances of the consensus speed horses in Race 5 and 6.
Key Takeaways
- Anchor the Late Card: Use Race 6, 8, and 10 as singles to attack the late Pick 4/5 pools aggressively.
- Spread in Race 9: Do not settle for one or two horses in the Winsham Lad Stakes; the experts are confused, which means the public will be too.
- Value in Race 5: Look for the 12 (Sapello Riddler) to hit the board at a price, using it to boost exotic payouts.
