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Race 1 – Maiden Claiming, 1320Y, Dirt, 01:15pm
Win: MAJOR LEAGUE (5) – 57% confidence
Place: PEA EYE (1) – 70% confidence
Show: MYTH CONCEPTION (2) – 85% confidence
Alternative: DIAMONDS R LUCKY (3) – 40% confidence
Race Notes: A distinct split in opinion exists here. While analysts favor Major League (5) as the primary win contender, there is significant backing for Pea Eye (1) from multiple sources, suggesting a potential duel. Myth Conception (2) is a near-unanimous choice for the bottom of the ticket, making the top three fairly clear-cut.
Race 2 – Claiming, 1320Y, Dirt, 01:47pm
Win: SOUL SACRIFICE (4) – 67% confidence
Place: ORDER OF MERIT (2) – 80% confidence
Show: SLICK COUNTRY BOY (5) – 75% confidence
Alternative: MULTIPLE OPINIONS (1) – 25% confidence
Race Notes: Soul Sacrifice (4) commands the majority of the win attention, but Slick Country Boy (5) is a dangerous upset contender, having been picked to win by two separate services. Order Of Merit (2) is heavily favored to round out the exacta or trifecta but lacks win support.
Race 3 – Allowance, 8F, Dirt, 02:14pm
Win: ELEGANT OKIE (3) – 50% confidence
Place: LET’SGOJLO (6) – 45% confidence
Show: EASTER GIFT (1) – 80% confidence
Alternative: TIZABELLARINA (5) – 25% confidence
Race Notes: This race presents a chaotic picture with three different horses receiving win nods. Elegant Okie (3) has the slight edge in win volume, but Let’sgojlo (6) and Tizabellarina (5) are viable threats. Easter Gift (1) appears to be a “professional placer,” showing up consistently in the runner-up slot across multiple analyses.
Race 4 – Claiming, 1320Y, Dirt, 02:46pm
Win: EVERYONE NOS WENDY (1) – 71% confidence
Place: OUTTAHERWAY (5) – 80% confidence
Show: MISSES MILLIE (6) – 60% confidence
Alternative: CAMAN UP (4) – 30% confidence
Race Notes: Strong agreement forms around Everyone Nos Wendy (1), making this one of the clearer races on the card. Outtaherway (5) is the undisputed main danger, with the two horses likely to control the exacta pool.
Race 5 – Allowance, 1320Y, Dirt, 03:18pm
Win: SHIP OF DREAMS (3) – 86% confidence
Place: NINIA (2) – 75% confidence
Show: XYNGIN SPITFIRE (5) – 60% confidence
Alternative: RASPBERRY MARTINI (4) – 30% confidence
Race Notes: Ship Of Dreams (3) is the standout consensus favorite of the day. Nearly every analyst projects a win, with Ninia (2) and Xyngin Spitfire (5) fighting for the minor awards.
Race 6 – Claiming, 1210Y, Dirt, 03:45pm
Win: MITOLE’S LIMIT (8) – 67% confidence
Place: SMACKDOWN (7) – 75% confidence
Show: FINE TUNED (1) – 50% confidence
Alternative: MADETHEDEAN’SLIST (6) – 20% confidence
Race Notes: A competitive two-horse race between Mitole’s Limit (8) and Smackdown (7). While Mitole’s Limit (8) has the broader support for the win, Smackdown (7) is highly regarded by the data-heavy sources. Note that there is conflicting data regarding horse numbers for Fine Tuned and High Spark across sources; verify the official program at the track.
Race 7 – Claiming, 8F, Dirt, 04:12pm
Win: ABSAROKA (9) – 90% confidence
Place: ASPIRING COMEDIAN (1) – 45% confidence
Show: THAT’S SOMETHING (2) – 60% confidence
Alternative: JUST PLAIN ORNERY (3) – 20% confidence
Race Notes: Absaroka (9) is a dominant favorite with near-universal backing. The race for second is the real betting puzzle, split between Aspiring Comedian (1) and That’s Something (2).
Race 8 – Handicap, 8F, Dirt, 04:39pm
Win: CLASSY EMPIRE (3) – 33% confidence
Place: WITHOUT A TRACE (4) – 60% confidence
Show: NO TROUBLE (1) – 60% confidence
Alternative: BEN DIESEL (2) – 20% confidence
Race Notes: This is the most contentious race on the card. Opinion is evenly split three ways between Classy Empire (3), Without A Trace (4), and No Trouble (1). Each has received multiple win picks and place/show grades. This is a high-variance race suitable for spreading coverage.
Race 9 – Maiden Special Weight, 1320Y, Dirt, 05:11pm
Win: BAILEY SIOUX (3) – 50% confidence
Place: GIFT OF GRACE (8) – 75% confidence
Show: FREEBIE WEST (4) – 40% confidence
Alternative: MYSTIC GRACE (1) – 30% confidence
Race Notes: Bailey Sioux (3) holds a fragile lead in the consensus. Gift Of Grace (8) is a very strong alternative, appearing on nearly every ticket in the top two spots. The race is open to upset possibilities from Freebie West (4) and Mystic Grace (1).
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1: Exacta Box 5-1. The field drops off significantly after Major League (5) and Pea Eye (1). A saver Trifecta keying 5 over 1,2,6 covers the likely outcomes.
Race 2: Exacta Key 4 over 2,5. Soul Sacrifice (4) is a solid single, while Order Of Merit (2) and Slick Country Boy (5) are consistent underneath players.
Race 3: Trifecta Box 3-6-1. With opinion divided on the winner, boxing the top three provides safety. Easter Gift (1) is a critical inclusion for second and third place.
Race 4: Cold Exacta 1-5. The data strongly supports Everyone Nos Wendy (1) winning with Outtaherway (5) second.
Race 5: Superfecta Key 3 over 2,5 over 2,4,5. Ship Of Dreams (3) is the banker of the day. Structure tickets to maximize value by hoping for a price like Raspberry Martini (4) to slide into fourth.
Race 7: Trifecta Key 9 over 1,2. Absaroka (9) is a standout. Play him over the two likely place contenders to minimize ticket cost.
Race 8: Pick 3 or Pick 4 Spread. Do not single here. Use 1,3,4 in all multi-race wagers to survive this leg.
Value Play Observations
Race 3: EASTER GIFT (1). While not a top win pick, this horse is universally regarded as a board-hitter (Place/Show). If the win odds float up (Morning Line 5-1), she offers excellent value for Place/Show wagers or as a key in intra-race exotics.
Race 5: NINIA (2). With Ship Of Dreams likely to be heavily overbet (7-5 Morning Line, likely lower), Ninia (2-1) offers an alternative for those looking to beat the favorite, or more likely, a solid anchor for the bottom of exactas.
Race 8: BEN DIESEL (2). Listed at 12-1 on the morning line, this horse appears as an alternative on the Fan Odds card. In a race where the favorites are splitting the vote, a longshot has room to crash the Superfecta at a price.
Overall Wagering Strategy
Strongest Consensus Races The clearest opportunities for single-race wagers or “singles” in horizontal sequences lie in Race 5 and Race 7. In Race 5, SHIP OF DREAMS (3) commands 86% of the analyst confidence, while Race 7’s ABSAROKA (9) is a near-unanimous selection. These two runners represent the “free squares” on the card, and betting against them requires a specific, contrarian angle not present in the standard data. Race 4 also offers a strong opinion with EVERYONE NOS WENDY (1), creating a potential sequence of logical winners.
Split-Opinion Races Race 8 is the primary volatility point of the afternoon. The analyst pool is fractured perfectly between NO TROUBLE (1), CLASSY EMPIRE (3), and WITHOUT A TRACE (4). Wagering strategy here should shift from “finding the winner” to “coverage.” In Pick 3, Pick 4, or Pick 5 tickets, this leg demands using “All” or at least the top three to avoid being knocked out by a logical contender that simply wasn’t the consensus favorite. Race 3 also presents a similar, though less severe, challenge; boxing the top three is the prudent play.
Multi-Race Sequences A defined opportunity exists for a Pick 4 starting in Race 4. The sequence begins with two strong consensus pillars: EVERYONE NOS WENDY (1) in Race 4 and SHIP OF DREAMS (3) in Race 5. This allows bettors to go “skinny” (using 1 or 2 horses) in the first two legs, preserving capital to spread deeper in the more contentious Race 6 (Mitole’s Limit vs. Smackdown) and the chaotic Race 8.
Exotic Value Opportunities In Race 1 and Race 2, the “Gap” pattern appears. There is a strong tier of 1-2 horses followed by a significant drop-off in analyst sentiment. This structure favors Exacta wagering over Win wagering. By keying the top consensus choice over the secondary opinion (e.g., Race 1: 5 over 1), bettors can capture a higher yield than a simple Win bet on a low-odds favorite. Conversely, in Race 8, the confusion at the top suggests a Superfecta Box or high-odds Place betting might yield better ROI than trying to pick the specific winner among three evenly matched rivals.
Key Takeaways
- Anchor the Card: Build all multi-race tickets around SHIP OF DREAMS (Race 5) and ABSAROKA (Race 7).
- Spread in the 8th: Treat Race 8 as a “wide open” event; do not rely on a single opinion here.
- Value in Seconds: In Races 1, 2, and 4, the consensus for second place is almost as strong as for first. Use these “Place” consensus horses (Pea Eye, Order Of Merit, Outtaherway) aggressively in the bottom half of Exactas.
