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Race Day Overview
Aqueduct Racetrack opens its doors for a competitive eight-race card on Friday, February 13, 2026. The highlight of the afternoon features a mix of high-end claiming events and competitive allowance races, tailored to test the mettle of both local mainstays and intriguing shippers. Sprints and middle-distance route races dominate the docket today, presenting handicappers with a fascinating puzzle regarding pace dynamics and track bias. With the winter meet in full swing, form cycles are beginning to solidify, and we are seeing familiar trainer and jockey combinations finding their rhythm. The scratch wire has already been active, removing Curlins Magic from the third race, Best Impression from the sixth, and Master Freud from the seventh, which tightens up several of the fields and alters the pace scenarios in those respective contests.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather forecast for South Ozone Park today projects sunny to mostly cloudy skies with a high temperature hovering around 37 degrees and a low of 21 degrees. Winds will be moderate, blowing from the northwest at approximately 7 miles per hour. Crucially, there is zero percent chance of precipitation during the daytime racing hours. Given these dry, freezing conditions and the recent maintenance routines at Aqueduct, the main dirt oval will undoubtedly be rated as fast. The cold temperatures and moderate headwinds down the backstretch might create some kickback issues, which historically forces trailing horses to navigate wide or risk taking a face full of dirt.
Aqueduct Track Bias and Post Position Bias
Over the past two weeks at Aqueduct, a noticeable track bias has emerged that heavily favors early speed and inside post positions, particularly in sprint races. Data from late January into early February reveals that front-runners and pace-pressers breaking from the rail or inside stalls have maintained a significant advantage, wiring fields at an unusually high clip. In six-furlong and seven-furlong events, the inside path has acted almost like a conveyor belt, punishing deep closers who attempt to rally from the back of the pack. However, in the route races at a mile and an eighth, the bias tends to soften slightly, allowing tactical stalkers to effectively challenge the front-runners. Handicappers must factor in this inner rail advantage today. Horses that possess natural gate speed and draw inside posts should be upgraded across all vertical and horizontal wagers, while deep, one-run closers need pace meltdowns to have any realistic chance.
Race 1 – CLAIMING – 1 1/8 Miles
Post Time
01:10PM
Pace Analysis
The opening race is a nine-furlong route for older horses, and the pace projects to be moderate to slow. Flat On breaks from the inside post and possesses the most natural early speed in this short field of six. Airborne Elite also has tactical foot and will likely press from the outside, keeping the favorite honest through the opening half-mile. If the track bias holds, Flat On could dictate terms on a lonely lead, making him very dangerous as they turn for home.
Key Contenders
Flat On is the heavy favorite for a reason. Trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Manuel Franco, this six-year-old gelding drops into a highly winnable spot and draws the coveted rail. He projects to clear early and control the tempo. Handicappers agree that his recent speed figures tower over this group, and the Rice-Franco connection has been incredibly potent this winter. Airborne Elite is the clear second choice. Drawing the outside post, he figures to get a clean stalking trip under Jaime Rodriguez. He has hit the board in similar claiming events and should appreciate the stretch out in distance if the pace is manageable.
Secondary Choices
Solo Empire is an intriguing secondary option. Breaking from post three, he has shown flashes of closing ability, though the potential lack of pace up front might hinder his late run. Still, trainer Rudy R Rodriguez is known for having his horses fit for these longer winter routes, and Ruben Silvera can navigate a ground-saving trip. Kismeholdmethrlme is a four-year-old gelding stepping up in age class but brings a decent closing kick. Reylu Gutierrez will need to keep him closer to the pace than usual to overcome the speed bias.
Longshots
Shamateur is a true longshot in this spot. The seven-year-old has struggled to find the winner’s circle recently and lacks the tactical speed required to exploit the current track profile. Because the Night is the longest shot on the board, offering very little in recent past performances to suggest an imminent turnaround, though a massive pace collapse could see him clunk up for a minor award.
Betting Strategy
The strategy here is to lean heavily on the inside speed. Flat On is a single in the early Pick 5 and Pick 4 sequences. For vertical wagers, playing a cold exacta with Airborne Elite underneath is the most logical approach. Value seekers might look to box Solo Empire and Kismeholdmethrlme for the bottom of trifecta tickets, but trying to beat the favorite for the top spot seems like a losing proposition given the projected race flow.
Selections
Win: Flat On (1) – 65% confidence
Place: Airborne Elite (6) – 50% confidence
Show: Solo Empire (3) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Kismeholdmethrlme (5) – 35% confidence
Race 2 – STARTER ALLOWANCE – 1 1/8 Miles
Post Time
01:41PM
Pace Analysis
This starter allowance for fillies and mares going nine furlongs lacks a standout front-runner, which could result in a paceless affair. Big Dig, breaking from the rail, might inherit the lead by default. Snide and Fast and Frisky will likely sit in close attendance, creating a compact group down the backstretch. A slow pace heavily favors those forwardly placed, making the first quarter-mile crucial for positioning.
Key Contenders
Big Dig gets the nod as the primary contender. Drawing the rail in a paceless race over a speed-favoring track is a massive advantage. Manuel Franco will likely send her from the bell, and if she clears, she could be gone. Higher Force is the main danger. The four-year-old filly trained by Rudy R Rodriguez has shown tactical versatility and should get a beautiful stalking trip from post four. She has been knocking on the door in similar conditions and fits this level perfectly.
Secondary Choices
Snide is a fascinating prospect for Linda Rice. Kendrick Carmouche takes the mount, and this filly has the tactical speed to mix it up early. She has been training well and should appreciate the nine-furlong distance. Fast and Frisky is a consistent performer who always seems to grind out a piece of the purse. Ricardo Santana Jr will have her mid-pack, ready to pounce if the front-runners tire in the final furlong.
Longshots
Baby Sassicaia is a logical longshot to include underneath. She has experience at this distance and occasionally fires a figure capable of hitting the board, though winning seems like a stretch against this group. Royal Bobbie has struggled with consistency and will need a lifetime best effort to factor in the exactas today.
Betting Strategy
With no overwhelming favorite, this race offers good betting value. Using Big Dig and Higher Force equally in multi-race wagers makes sense. For intra-race bets, a trifecta keying Big Dig on top of Higher Force, Snide, and Fast and Frisky offers a solid return on investment.
Selections
Win: Big Dig (1) – 45% confidence
Place: Higher Force (4) – 40% confidence
Show: Snide (5) – 35% confidence
Alternative: Fast and Frisky (2) – 30% confidence
Race 3 – ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING – 7 Furlongs
Post Time
02:11PM
Pace Analysis
With Curlins Magic scratched, the pace scenario in this seven-furlong sprint changes slightly. Purr Factor and Arrogarsi both possess excellent early speed and will likely lock horns from the start. This contested pace should set up perfectly for a stalker sitting just off the first flight, though the prevailing track bias means they cannot let the leaders get too far away.
Key Contenders
Bams Bliss Kiss is the prime beneficiary of the expected pace duel. Jaime Rodriguez will likely position this four-year-old filly right behind the leaders, waiting for the top of the stretch to make her move. She has explosive turn-of-foot and handles the seven-furlong distance with aplomb. Save Us Melania is another formidable contender for Linda Rice. Jose Lezcano will look to save ground early and mount a sustained run. Her class relief today makes her a very dangerous threat in the final eighth of a mile.
Secondary Choices
Arrogarsi will be the one they have to catch. Manuel Franco will be aggressive out of the gate, trying to clear Purr Factor early. If she manages to secure an uncontested lead, the track bias could carry her all the way to the wire. Romantic Dancer is a seasoned mare who has run against tougher fields in the past. Sahin Civaci gets the ride, and she is fully capable of picking up the pieces if the early pace is suicidal.
Longshots
Purr Factor is the main speed signed on but might find the seven furlongs a bit too testing if pressured the whole way. She is a risky win bet but a must-use in the exotic lower rungs.
Betting Strategy
Bams Bliss Kiss and Save Us Melania are the two to lean on here. An exacta box with these two is the primary play. In the Pick 4, spreading with Arrogarsi as a backup is a smart defensive move just in case the speed bias completely takes over and she refuses to yield.
Selections
Win: Bam’s Bliss Kiss (2) – 55% confidence
Place: Save Us Melania (5) – 45% confidence
Show: Arrogarsi (4) – 35% confidence
Alternative: Romantic Dancer (3) – 30% confidence
Race 4 – STARTER ALLOWANCE – 1 Mile
Post Time
02:42PM
Pace Analysis
This one-mile event for New York bred fillies and mares features plenty of early speed. Rumint, Devils Arrow, and Timia all want the lead. This should ensure an honest, if not rapid, early pace. The one-turn mile at Aqueduct can be tricky, and those who expend too much energy early often fade badly in the long stretch run.
Key Contenders
Vino Samara looks perfectly spotted here by trainer Mark Hennig. Breaking from post six, Jose Lezcano can sit just off the expected speed duel, keeping her in the clear before launching a bid at the quarter pole. She has proven she can rate and finish, which is the exact profile needed for this race shape. Rumint is the class of the speed horses. Reylu Gutierrez will try to clear from the rail, which is a massive advantage on this track. If she gets away with a moderate second quarter, she will be very tough to reel in.
Secondary Choices
Alyvia Mavis represents great value. Trainer Jamie Ness rarely ships without intent, and Jaime Rodriguez is a highly capable pilot. She has the tactical speed to stay in touch and the stamina to see out the mile. Devils Arrow is another speed threat who will keep the pace honest. Luis Rivera Jr will have to use her early to secure position, which might compromise her late kick, but she is talented enough to hold on for a minor share.
Longshots
Heavens Lee and Last Glory both require significant improvement to challenge the top choices. They are deep closers in a race where making up ground will be difficult despite the projected fast pace. Timia might be part of the early pace but looks liable to fade late.
Betting Strategy
Vino Samara is the standout value play on the card. Betting her to win and keying her on top of exactas with Rumint and Alyvia Mavis is the recommended approach. In multi-race sequences, Vino Samara and Rumint should be sufficient to get through the leg safely.
Selections
Win: Vino Samara (6) – 60% confidence
Place: Rumint (1) – 45% confidence
Show: Alyvia Mavis (7) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Devils Arrow (2) – 30% confidence
Race 5 – MAIDEN CLAIMING – 1 Mile
Post Time
03:12PM
Pace Analysis
Maiden claiming routes are notoriously difficult to predict from a pace perspective, as many of these older horses are inconsistent. Come to Papa and Freedom Maker seem to have the most early initiative. Expect a moderate pace, with riders trying to save as much horse as possible for the grueling final furlong.
Key Contenders
Come to Papa is the lukewarm choice in a wide-open affair. Kendrick Carmouche rides for Linda Rice, a jockey-trainer combination that demands respect. This five-year-old gelding has shown enough in his morning workouts to suggest he is ready to break his maiden against this soft group. Noguchi gets Jose Lezcano and also hails from the Rice barn. He has shown brief flashes of ability and adding blinkers today might be the equipment change needed to sharpen his early focus.
Secondary Choices
Freedom Maker is a logical alternative. Manuel Franco takes the reins, and this gelding has competitive speed figures. If he can break cleanly and establish a forward position, he has every right to graduate today. Uncle Barrie is a four-year-old making his presence felt in the morning lines. Gokhan Kocakaya will try to engineer a mid-pack trip and hope for the leaders to stagger late.
Longshots
Jamaica Redd draws the rail and gets blinkers, which could send him to the front. At a price, he is worth a look. Down the Line and Natural Hunk have shown very little to date and would be massive surprises. Midnight Musume is in deep waters here.
Betting Strategy
This is a race to spread in the Pick 6 and Pick 5. Come to Papa, Noguchi, and Freedom Maker all need to be on the ticket. For single-race bettors, a small win wager on Come to Papa and a boxed trifecta of the top three choices is the safest route through a chaotic puzzle.
Selections
Win: Come to Papa (7) – 40% confidence
Place: Noguchi (3) – 35% confidence
Show: Freedom Maker (6) – 35% confidence
Alternative: Uncle Barrie (4) – 30% confidence
Race 6 – STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING – 6 1/2 Furlongs
Post Time
03:42PM
Pace Analysis
With Best Impression scratched, the complexion of this sprint changes. Shes Cool and Echo in Eternity possess blazing early speed. The six and a half furlong distance is a true test of stamina for sprinters, and the hot early fractions will favor a horse that can stalk the pace and pounce in the final sixteenth of a mile.
Key Contenders
Shes Cool is the most likely winner. Manuel Franco will likely outbreak the field, and given the strong speed bias at Aqueduct, she might never look back. Her recent form is superb, and she looks primed for a massive effort. My First Love is the seasoned veteran of the field. Kendrick Carmouche knows this seven-year-old mare well. She has the perfect stalking style to sit just behind the blazing speed and pick up the pieces if Shes Cool begins to labor.
Secondary Choices
Problematica draws the rail for Wayne Potts. Jaime Rodriguez will have to hustle her to maintain position, but she has the class to be a factor at the finish. Echo in Eternity will be part of the early pace scenario. Jose Lezcano will try to pressure Shes Cool, which could set the race up for the closers, or she could simply run the others off their feet.
Longshots
Jackie the Joker and Defended are both aging mares who need a total pace collapse to factor. Whistlers Style is overmatched on paper.
Betting Strategy
Shes Cool is a strong play here, especially with the favorable track profile. Key her on top of My First Love and Problematica in the exactas. In horizontal wagers, she is a confident single for those looking to trim ticket costs.
Selections
Win: She’s Cool (5) – 65% confidence
Place: My First Love (3) – 45% confidence
Show: Problematica (1) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Echo in Eternity (8) – 30% confidence
Race 7 – ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING – 7 Furlongs
Post Time
04:13PM
Pace Analysis
The scratch of Master Freud removes some early speed, but Vibrant Express and Sheriff Bianco ensure a brisk tempo. This is a high-quality field of New York breds, and the seven-furlong distance will be run fairly. Expect a contested pace from the outset, setting up a thrilling stretch drive.
Key Contenders
Vibrant Express is a serious threat to wire this field. Breaking from the rail with Eric Cancel, he has won three in a row against softer company. If the inside bias holds strong, he will be extremely difficult to catch, though this is a significant step up in class. Sheriff Bianco is a seasoned eight-year-old gelding trained by Linda Rice. Ruben Silvera will track the speed and try to wear them down late. He is a model of consistency and always fires his best shot.
Secondary Choices
Factually Correct brings a strong closing kick. Luis Rivera Jr will let the speed go and make one massive run down the center of the track. If the front-runners duel each other into submission, he is the most likely candidate to swoop past them all. Beary Funny is another class horse who fits well here. Manuel Franco will look for a mid-pack, ground-saving trip.
Longshots
Rollin in Dough and Braciole are both capable of hitting the board on their best days but seem a notch below the top contenders. Runandscore and Dollys Bank are massive longshots requiring a career-best performance to win.
Betting Strategy
This is a phenomenal betting race. Vibrant Express and Sheriff Bianco are the primary players, but Factually Correct offers immense value. A trifecta box with these three is highly recommended. In the late Pick 4, use all three to ensure survival.
Selections
Win: Vibrant Express (1) – 50% confidence
Place: Sheriff Bianco (3) – 45% confidence
Show: Factually Correct (9) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Beary Funny (2) – 35% confidence
Race 8 – CLAIMING – 7 Furlongs
Post Time
04:43PM
Pace Analysis
The nightcap is a low-level claiming sprint that lacks a true standout. Fiscal Drag and Givememythememusic have the most early foot. Expect a scrambled break and a moderate pace, with several horses vying for early position before settling into a rhythm.
Key Contenders
Givememythememusic is the tepid choice here. Sahin Civaci rides for Miguel Clement, and this four-year-old gelding drops in class to a more manageable level. He has the tactical speed to secure a good position early and the stamina to finish the job. Solo Dancing draws the rail and will save all the ground. Christopher Elliott will try to keep him close to the pace and hope the rail bias carries him home.
Secondary Choices
Dialbolico is a dangerous closer if the pace gets too hot. Omar Hernandez Moreno will be flying late. Grand Commander gets class relief and Luis Rivera Jr in the irons, making him a very logical inclusion in all exotic wagers.
Longshots
Messi the Magician, Taparino, and Come Full Circle are all struggling to find form and are hard to endorse for the top spot, though in a race this wide open, any of them could pop up for a minor award at massive odds.
Betting Strategy
A wide-open finale means spreading is necessary in the late pick sequences. Givememythememusic is the slight preference for win bets. A superfecta box including Givememythememusic, Solo Dancing, Dialbolico, and Grand Commander is a fun way to end the day with a potential big payout.
Selections
Win: Givememythememusic (4) – 40% confidence
Place: Solo Dancing (1) – 35% confidence
Show: Dialbolico (8) – 35% confidence
Alternative: Grand Commander (5) – 30% confidence
Jockey Notes and Insights
Manuel Franco is the undisputed king of the Aqueduct winter meet right now. He is riding with immense confidence and has live mounts in almost every race today, including Flat On and Shes Cool. When he teams up with Linda Rice, they are virtually unstoppable. Kendrick Carmouche is another rider to watch closely. He is winning at a high percentage and excels at getting horses out of the gate cleanly, a massive advantage on this speed-biased track. Jose Lezcano continues to be a steady, reliable presence, particularly in route races where his internal clock is second to none. Jaime Rodriguez is an aggressive rider who fits the Aqueduct profile perfectly; look for him to send his mounts early to secure forward placement.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Linda Rice holds a dominant hand on today’s card. She has heavily favored entrants in multiple races and her barn is firing on all cylinders. Her ability to place claiming horses in winning spots is unparalleled at this circuit. Rudy R Rodriguez is another local force. His horses are always exceptionally fit, and he excels with older claimers stretching out in distance. Wayne Potts has a couple of intriguing entries today; while his win percentage might not match Rice’s, his horses frequently outrun their odds and are essential for underneath plays in vertical exotics. Joe Sharp ships in Big Dig for the second race, a move that demands respect given his high strike rate with similar types.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The defining characteristic of today’s card is the strong rail and speed bias. Your primary strategy should be heavily weighting front-runners drawn inside, especially in the sprint races. Do not get stubborn trying to beat the bias with deep closers unless there is overwhelming evidence of a destructive pace duel.
The best value play of the day comes in Race 4 with Vino Samara. She has the perfect tactical style to sit just off a contested pace and get the first jump on the deep closers. At her expected morning line odds, she offers a fantastic win bet opportunity and makes a great single in the Pick 4.
For the multi-race sequences, the early Pick 5 looks playable by singling Flat On in the first race and Shes Cool in the sixth race. This allows you to spread deeply in the chaotic maiden claiming event in the fifth race and the wide-open nightcap. Exacta and trifecta bettors should look to key Linda Rice’s horses on top while using high-priced closers in the third and fourth positions to juice the payouts. Stay disciplined, respect the track bias, and focus your capital on the races where the pace scenario is clearest.
