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Today features a fantastic 10-race card under the lights at Turfway Park. The competitive fields are packed with claiming, maiden, and allowance optional claiming events, highlighted by the Dust Commander Stakes in Race 9. With deep fields and the unique dynamics of the Tapeta surface, bettors will have plenty of opportunities to find value across the card. Scratches have been noted, including American Bear and Uneven Kiel in Race 1, Dancing Legacy and Vadora in Race 2, Juanita’s Express and Bramble Blaze in Race 4, Magamak and Penn Star in Race 5, Dirbas and Spuns Son in Race 6, Fancy Fascinator in Race 7, and Lady Viv, Loving Mischief, and Smoked Peach in Race 10.
When handicapping Turfway Park, understanding the track bias on the synthetic Tapeta surface is crucial. Generally, the surface plays very fairly, offering chances to both front-runners and deep closers. However, it is essential to monitor how the track is playing early in the card. Often, a pronounced bias can emerge where mid-pack stalkers who make their sweeping moves on the far turn find the most success. Saving ground around the turns and tipping out for the stretch drive is a high-percentage winning profile here.
Weather and Track Conditions
For Saturday, February 14, 2026, the weather in Florence features cloudy daytime conditions with a high temperature of 56°F, a low temperature of 31°F, 55% humidity, a 10% chance of daytime rain, and wind from the south at 7 mph.
With temperatures dropping significantly from the daytime high into the evening, the synthetic Tapeta surface may tighten up. A cooler, more compacted track can occasionally play kinder to speed horses who can glide over the surface while expending less energy. Bettors should pay close attention to the early races to see if front-runners are holding their ground better than usual.
Race 1
Post Time
05:55 PM
Pace Analysis
In this 6-furlong sprint, expect a sharp early tempo. Horses dropping in class often show early speed, and My Mister Perfect drawing the rail should dictate terms early. Greatdayforhockey and Patronage will likely press the pace, setting up a solid flow for a mid-pack stalker to make a run at the top of the lane.
Key Contenders
Delta Tau Chi is a strong contender here. Drawing an outside post keeps him clear of traffic, and the Mike Maker barn is always dangerous at Turfway. He possesses the tactical speed to sit just off the leaders and strike late, making him a consensus top pick among handicappers.
Greatdayforhockey comes in with solid form and should relish the synthetic surface. He is well-drawn and figures to be in the mix from the break.
Secondary Choices
My Mister Perfect has the rail advantage and early foot, making him a dangerous front-runner if left alone.
Zen It has been knocking on the door in similar spots and can hit the board at a decent price if he gets a clean trip.
Longshots
It Takes a Cowboy gets in light and could surprise if the pace completely melts down, offering great value for exotic wagers.
Selections
Win: Delta Tau Chi (10) – 45% confidence
Place: Greatdayforhockey (2) – 30% confidence
Show: My Mister Perfect (1) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Zen It (11) – 10% confidence
Race 2
Post Time
06:25 PM
Pace Analysis
Going a flat mile for maiden claimers, the pace should be moderate. Tone of Silence and Pickle Shoes should flash early speed to establish position before the first turn. The race shape favors those who can save ground and pounce in the final quarter-mile.
Key Contenders
Sand Queen draws the inside post and gets Edgar Morales in the irons. She has tactical speed and the rail draw is highly advantageous at this mile distance. Handicappers see her as the most logical winner.
Pickle Shoes looks well-spotted here and should benefit from a forwardly placed trip. She has shown enough early speed to secure good positioning.
Secondary Choices
Tone of Silence can contend if able to clear the field early without expending too much energy.
Birkin Elegance gets a weight break and has shown glimpses of ability that fit this specific class level.
Longshots
Lil’ Hottie could clunk up for a minor award at long odds if the pace is faster than anticipated.
Selections
Win: Sand Queen (1) – 40% confidence
Place: Pickle Shoes (6) – 35% confidence
Show: Birkin Elegance (8) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Tone of Silence (2) – 10% confidence
Race 3
Post Time
06:55 PM
Pace Analysis
At 6 1/2 furlongs, speed is essential but the extra half-furlong can test the pure sprinters. Our Shenanigan and Taqdeer should vie for the early lead, creating an honest pace. This sets up well for a stalker like Low Moon to make a sweeping move.
Key Contenders
Our Shenanigan comes from the Brad Cox barn and figures to take plenty of action. She has sharp early speed and looks strictly the one to catch.
Taqdeer brings consistent speed figures to the table and will be right there applying pressure from the start, making her a consensus key contender.
Secondary Choices
Low Moon has appealing tactical speed and should get the ideal stalking trip behind the dueling leaders.
One Front War drops in and could wake up in this spot with the class relief.
Longshots
Springtimeprincess could add value to the exotics if she can translate some of her dirt form to the Tapeta.
Selections
Win: Our Shenanigan (8) – 50% confidence
Place: Taqdeer (10) – 25% confidence
Show: Low Moon (7) – 15% confidence
Alternative: One Front War (4) – 10% confidence
Race 4
Post Time
07:25 PM
Pace Analysis
A full field of older claimers going a mile guarantees a scramble for position. Silver Quarters and P K Wood have early foot, but the pace might be slightly softer than it looks on paper. Expect a tactical affair where saving ground is paramount.
Key Contenders
Silver Quarters is a battle-tested veteran from the Larry Rivelli barn. He knows where the wire is and should sit a perfect trip just off the early speed.
Nip N Tuck is another classy veteran who fits well at this claiming level and will be rolling late when the real running begins.
Secondary Choices
Creek draws outside but has the tactical speed to overcome the post and contend.
Grimes has been steady and can fill out the exotics with his grinding style.
Longshots
Company You Keep gets a significant weight break and might outrun his odds if he can secure a clean trip on the rail.
Selections
Win: Silver Quarters (2) – 40% confidence
Place: Nip N Tuck (12) – 30% confidence
Show: Creek (11) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Grimes (3) – 10% confidence
Race 5
Post Time
07:55 PM
Pace Analysis
This high-priced maiden special weight at a mile features several unexposed types. Light Cav and Bold Stand appear to have natural speed. Without clear established form, expect the riders to let them find their feet early, resulting in a moderate pace.
Key Contenders
Light Cav represents the D. Whitworth Beckman barn and looks primed for a big effort. His workouts suggest he is ready to roll at first asking, drawing consensus support.
Bold Stand ships in for Eoin Harty and his pedigree suggests the synthetic route will suit him perfectly.
Secondary Choices
Silver Sniper draws the rail and will save all the ground, ensuring he gets a highly efficient trip.
Mac Gowan has the right connections to be dangerous right out of the box.
Longshots
Bhatia could offer some value for Christopher Davis if he can break cleanly and secure a forward position early.
Selections
Win: Light Cav (3) – 35% confidence
Place: Bold Stand (5) – 30% confidence
Show: Mac Gowan (10) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Silver Sniper (1) – 15% confidence
Race 6
Post Time
08:25 PM
Pace Analysis
This bottom-level claiming mile will likely be chaotic. Expect Ghost Prince and Redhill to aggressively seek the lead. The pace should be brisk, favoring those who can rate kindly mid-pack and make one sustained run.
Key Contenders
Ghost Prince drops to a logical level and has the speed to dictate the race shape. If he can ration his speed, he will be tough to run down.
Knicks Gate has faced better competition recently and should appreciate the class relief today.
Secondary Choices
Enjoy the Cracken gets the rail and can save ground throughout for a piece of the pie.
Tap the Candy is a reliable closer who will be picking up the pieces late when the speed tires.
Longshots
Facenda has back class and might wake up at a price in this softer spot.
Selections
Win: Ghost Prince (3) – 35% confidence
Place: Knicks Gate (10) – 30% confidence
Show: Tap the Candy (4) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Enjoy the Cracken (1) – 15% confidence
Race 7
Post Time
08:55 PM
Pace Analysis
At 6 1/2 furlongs, this allowance optional claiming event features a mix of speed and late runners. Commanded and Salt will likely ensure the pace is honest from the jump. The true sprinters will try to carry their speed over the extra half-furlong.
Key Contenders
Bellavinino is a talented filly from the Steve Asmussen barn. She has tactical speed and the class to handle this group.
Salt is a formidable entry for Joe Sharp with solid back form that makes her a major player.
Secondary Choices
Commanded has sharp early foot and will be dangerous if she clears the field easily.
Saphira is a consistent performer who always seems to fire her best shot.
Longshots
Kiss Me Again draws the rail and could sit a golden trip at a nice price.
Selections
Win: Bellavinino (11) – 40% confidence
Place: Salt (2) – 30% confidence
Show: Commanded (3) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Saphira (10) – 10% confidence
Race 8
Post Time
09:25 PM
Pace Analysis
This one-mile allowance test for fillies and mares will feature a strategic pace scenario. Bread to Run and Glamorama both possess early speed. If they hook up early, the race will fall apart for a closer.
Key Contenders
Low Key in Love comes from the Brendan Walsh barn and looks exceptionally well-placed here. She has the right running style to stalk the pace and pounce.
Appellate is drawn outside but has the class and tactical ability to overcome it for Joe Sharp.
Secondary Choices
Glamorama will be dangerous on the lead and could wire the field if left alone to set a relaxed tempo.
Sol d’Oro is a consistent runner who fits perfectly at this level.
Longshots
Bijou Baby has grinding speed and could find the frame at double-digit odds.
Selections
Win: Low Key in Love (3) – 45% confidence
Place: Appellate (14) – 25% confidence
Show: Glamorama (4) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Sol d’Oro (5) – 10% confidence
Race 9
Post Time
09:55 PM
Pace Analysis
The featured Dust Commander Stakes at 1 1/16 miles will demand stamina and tactical awareness. Encino and Sugoi look to be the primary pace actors. A contested pace could set things up perfectly for a deep closer.
Key Contenders
Encino is the class of the field for Brad Cox. He has tremendous tactical speed and can assert his dominance anywhere in the race. He is a legitimate standout and the consensus horse to beat.
Honor Marie is a high-quality runner who will appreciate the distance and should be rolling late.
Secondary Choices
Smokey Mandate is a solid performer who knows the Turfway track well and will be competitive.
Sugoi is a gritty veteran who will make them work for it on the front end.
Longshots
Native Shaman can be somewhat erratic but possesses a powerful late kick that could surprise if the pace is hot.
Selections
Win: Encino (4) – 55% confidence
Place: Honor Marie (1) – 25% confidence
Show: Smokey Mandate (10) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Sugoi (7) – 5% confidence
Race 10
Post Time
10:25 PM
Pace Analysis
The nightcap is a one-mile maiden claiming event. The pace should be honest with Tacit Agreement and Nancy Mak pushing the issue early. This sets up well for a stalker.
Key Contenders
Cady Hill looks formidable for Brendan Walsh. She drops into the maiden claiming ranks and that class relief is often the key to finding the winner’s circle.
Stay Beautiful draws the inside post and has shown enough to suggest she belongs with these.
Secondary Choices
Sylvette gets a weight break and should be forwardly placed throughout.
Lady Faye has room to improve and could step up in this spot.
Longshots
Scary Jerry could add extreme value to the exotics with a clean trip from the outside.
Selections
Win: Cady Hill (8) – 45% confidence
Place: Stay Beautiful (1) – 30% confidence
Show: Sylvette (5) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Lady Faye (7) – 10% confidence
Jockey Notes and Insights
Luan Machado is riding with tremendous confidence right now and is an absolute must-use in any multi-race wagers. He understands the nuances of the Tapeta surface and rarely makes a tactical error.
Joseph D. Ramos is another rider to watch closely tonight. He is aggressive out of the gate and excels at getting his mounts into prime stalking positions. When he teams up with top barns, the results are highly profitable.
Gerardo Corrales remains a dangerous pilot, especially when placed on speed horses. He has a knack for nursing a front-runner and leaving enough in the tank for the stretch drive.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Brad Cox sends out a few formidable entries tonight, highlighted by Encino in the Dust Commander Stakes. When the Cox barn targets a stakes race at Turfway, they are usually fully cranked and ready to fire.
Mike Maker continues to be a dominant force on the synthetic. His runners are almost always live, and he excels at dropping horses to the right claiming levels to secure a victory.
Joe Sharp and Brendan Walsh both have nicely spotted runners on this card. Walsh, in particular, has horses dropping in class tonight, a high-percentage angle that bettors should not ignore.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The most prudent approach tonight is to key the heavily favored Encino in the Dust Commander Stakes and build your multi-race tickets around him. He appears to be a legitimate single in the Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequences.
For value, look closely at the class droppers in the maiden and claiming ranks. Horses like Cady Hill in the nightcap and Low Key in Love in the eighth race offer solid value as they face slightly softer competition.
Playing the Late Pick 5 offers tremendous upside. Singling Encino in the ninth race allows you to spread deep in the chaotic claiming events like Race 6 and Race 10. Focus on identifying early speed in the sprint races and proven synthetic stalkers in the route races to maximize your return on investment.
