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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Today’s ten race program is headlined by three significant New York bred stakes: the East View Stakes, the Damon Runyon Stakes, and the Say Florida Sandy Stakes. While several high profile scratches have altered the complexion of the later races, particularly the nightcap, the card remains highly competitive with a strong mix of allowance and stakes talent.
The weather forecast for South Ozone Park is ideal for mid February racing. We expect sunny skies with a high of 45 degrees Fahrenheit and a low of 29 degrees. With negligible precipitation expected and winds at a steady 10 miles per hour, the main dirt track is expected to remain fast and consistent.
Recent track trends at Aqueduct indicate a distinct advantage for early speed and horses utilizing the inner paths. Front runners and tactical stalkers positioned near the rail have shown a higher win percentage over the past several racing days. Handicappers should prioritize horses with natural early foot and favorable inside post positions.
Race 1 – Race 4 Analysis
1st Race – Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/8 Miles) In this compact field, the pace is projected to be moderate. Minnesota Munny (3) is the likely pacesetter and will attempt to control the tempo from the start. Key contender Lost Horizon (2) is the class of the field, dropping into this spot for trainer Chad Brown with a tactical style that suits the small field. I’m Buzzy (1) remains a primary secondary choice based on her back class, while Pens Street (5) serves as the longshot who will be passing tired horses late.
2nd Race – East View Stakes (7 Furlongs) A very fast early tempo is expected here as Victory Hall (2) and Galinda (4) are both likely to duel for the lead. This setup favors Pinky Brier (1), a key contender for Brad Cox who has shown the ability to sit just off a hot pace and finish strongly. Secondary choices include Rina’s Revenge (6), who will benefit from a pace meltdown, and the speedy Galinda (4). Blue Note (5) is a longshot worth watching if the front runners tire significantly in the final furlong.
3rd Race – Claiming (6 1/2 Furlongs) Following several scratches, this race appears to go through Fort Nelson (2). He possesses the tactical speed to sit just outside the leader and the class to pull away in the stretch. Seeker’s Hope (3) is the main secondary choice, consistent at this level and likely to track the pace. Good Lord (6) is a secondary threat who may inherit the early lead. Middle Market (1) is the longshot of the remaining quartet.
4th Race – Damon Runyon Stakes (7 Furlongs) The pace should be honest with Mission Critical (1) and Arctic Beast (6) both vying for the early lead. Royal Riddle (5) is the key contender here, likely to secure a perfect stalking trip under Manny Franco. Mission Critical (1) remains a primary threat if he can clear the field early. Secondary choices include the versatile Time to Roll (4) and the improving Combat Mission (2). Portadown Lad (3) is the longshot closer in the group.
Race 5 – Race 7 Analysis
5th Race – Claiming (6 Furlongs) A contested pace is virtually guaranteed with speedsters Purple and Gold (2) and Furry Fox (8) signed on. This sets the table for Signifying Nothing (1), a key contender who has been waiting for a scenario like this to display her closing kick. Syl’s Pleasure (6) and Second Chance (3) are strong secondary choices who also prefer to come from off the pace. Purple and Gold (2) is a longshot play if she can somehow outlast the other speed and maintain an inside advantage.
6th Race – Claiming (6 1/2 Furlongs) The pace is expected to be manageable, which plays right into the hands of Leading Role (5). He is a key contender with superior speed figures and a versatile running style. Sin Nombre (6) is a consistent secondary choice who rarely runs a bad race at this level. Brew Pub (3) and Lost in Rome (4) provide veteran presence as secondary choices, while Glint (1) is a longshot dropping in class.
7th Race – Starter Allowance (1 Mile) Sergeant Capps (4) and Knox (5) should ensure a brisk tempo for this one mile route. Morlock (2) is the key contender, a powerful closer who will relish the distance and the projected pace. Sinister Smile (9) is a major threat from the outside post with a versatile running style. Secondary choices include the prominent Curvino (6) and the consistent Leftembehind (3). Baron of Sealand (1) is an intriguing longshot from the rail.
Race 8 – Race 10 Analysis
8th Race – Allowance (1 Mile) With the scratch of the primary speed, Ranger Battalion (2) is expected to have an easier time on the lead. Bold Strength (6) is the key contender for Brad Cox, a horse with significant upside who should press the leader. Shadow Banking (5) is the primary secondary choice, possessing a strong late kick. Ranger Battalion (2) and Dettori (4) round out the secondary selections. Tiger Twenty Four (7) is a longshot to consider for a minor share of the purse.
9th Race – Say Florida Sandy Stakes (7 Furlongs) The feature race of the day should see Acoustic Ave (2) and National Identity (3) testing each other early. The Wine Steward (7) is the standout key contender, a class horse returning to a distance that suits him perfectly. Dr. Kraft (6) is a formidable secondary choice currently in career best form. Acoustic Ave (2) and Quick to Accuse (5) are secondary threats, while General Banker (1) is the longshot capable of an upset on his best day.
10th Race – Maiden Special Weight (1 Mile) Due to significant scratches, this race has become a test of stamina for the remaining six runners. Who’s Your Zaddy (8) is the clear key contender after facing tougher fields in his previous starts. Classic Commander (10) is a secondary choice who has been training forwardly for this assignment. Mo Curls (5) and Dinghy Bar (3) are the other secondary selections. Baby Meanie (9) is the longshot of the group.
Jockey and Trainer Notes
Manny Franco enters the day as the meet’s most dominant rider, recently coming off a six win performance. His mounts today, particularly those for the Brad Cox and Joe Sharp barns, should be given extra consideration. Jose Lezcano and Jaime Rodriguez also remain in high form and are specifically dangerous on horses with tactical speed.
On the trainer side, Linda Rice continues to lead the standings by a wide margin. Her horses are consistently well prepared and often improve when switching to the Aqueduct main track. Brad Cox and Chad Brown have also shipped in high quality contenders today, indicating they are placing their runners in spots where they are expected to be highly competitive.
