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The Arkansas oval offers a deep nine race card featuring a mix of claiming events, maiden tests, and competitive allowance races. After recent weather challenges in the region, today presents a fantastic opportunity for handicappers to find value with horses returning to an optimal racing surface. The fields are full, the class drops are evident, and the jockey colony is loaded with top tier talent ready to navigate the sweeping turns of Hot Springs.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Oaklawn Park today is extremely favorable. Expect sunny skies throughout the afternoon with a high temperature reaching 61 degrees and a low around 43 degrees. Humidity will sit around 75 percent with north winds blowing at a manageable 13 miles per hour. Precipitation chances are low during the racing action, meaning the main dirt surface will be fast and dry. Given the recent bouts of moisture earlier in the month, a dry track will favor horses with true dirt pedigrees rather than those who simply relish the slop.
Track Bias or Post Position Bias
Analyzing the recent statistics and track profiles at Oaklawn Park reveals some distinct biases that handicappers must respect. In six furlong dirt sprints, early speed is incredibly potent. Roughly 30 percent of these races are being won wire to wire, with inside to middle post positions showing a distinct advantage. If a horse can secure the rail and dictate the fractions, they become extremely difficult to catch.
Conversely, the route races at one and one sixteenth miles are playing quite differently. Only about 8 percent of recent races at this distance have been won wire to wire. The profile strongly favors tactical pressers and stalkers drawn in the middle to outside posts. The long run into the first turn allows outside horses to drop in and save ground without using too much early energy, setting them up perfectly for a closing rally down the stretch.
Race 1
Post Time
12:30 PM
Pace Analysis
The opening race is a claiming event at one and one sixteenth miles for older fillies and mares. With Mo Sense scratched, the pace scenario looks moderate at best. Ole Silver should be able to clear early or at least secure a prime pressing position without facing intense pressure. Bee a Queen and Crushed Ice will likely track closely behind.
Key Contenders
Ole Silver drops slightly in class and gets Francisco Arrieta in the saddle. She has the tactical speed necessary to exploit the current route profile at Oaklawn. Bee a Queen represents the Sarah Shaffer barn and has been working steadily. She should appreciate the two turn distance and sits well within this claiming tier.
Secondary Choices
Mercy Warren brings back class lines that fit perfectly here. If the leaders duel unexpectedly, she is the most logical closer to pick up the pieces. Crushed Ice from the Steven Asmussen barn cannot be ignored, especially with Erik Asmussen riding.
Longshots
What’s to Do is an older mare who has seen better days but occasionally flashes the late turn of foot required to hit the board at a price.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Focus your multi race wagers around Ole Silver and Bee a Queen. A win bet on Ole Silver offers the best value, while playing exactas using the top two over the secondary choices should yield a solid return.
Selections
Win: Ole Silver (6) – 45% confidence
Place: Bee a Queen (1) – 25% confidence
Show: Mercy Warren (8) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Crushed Ice (5) – 10% confidence
Race 2
Post Time
01:02 PM
Pace Analysis
This maiden special weight route features a mix of stretch out sprinters and steady route types. Mingo and Publisher will likely push the tempo early. Expect an honest pace that will test the stamina of these maidens as they head into the final turn.
Key Contenders
Mingo is the clear standout for Steven Asmussen with Luis Saez taking the mount. He has been knocking on the door in maiden special weight company and looks primed for a breakthrough. Publisher, also from the Asmussen stable, gives the barn a potent one two punch and possesses the tactical speed to stay out of trouble.
Secondary Choices
Crazy Diamond has shown flashes of ability and the addition of Francisco Arrieta suggests the connections are expecting a big effort today. He should be sitting right off the speed. Wobbegong is lightly raced and open to improvement.
Longshots
Fight Time is making a class transition and could surprise if the pace completely collapses, though he will need a perfect trip.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Mingo looks like a potential single in the early Pick 4 sequence. An exacta box with his stablemate Publisher is the safest vertical play.
Selections
Win: Mingo (1) – 40% confidence
Place: Publisher (5) – 30% confidence
Show: Crazy Diamond (2) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Wobbegong (3) – 10% confidence
Race 3
Post Time
01:32 PM
Pace Analysis
Maiden claimers going a route usually results in a chaotic pace scenario. Several of these runners lack early foot, meaning whoever decides to go might get away with comfortable fractions. Brass Nucks and Expensive Game appear the most likely to show early initiative.
Key Contenders
Refined Design gets the services of Emmanuel Esquivel for Kenneth McPeek. This stable exceles in these spots, and the class relief here is exactly what this runner needs to finally graduate. Brass Nucks ships in with respectable figures and should be forwardly placed throughout.
Secondary Choices
Awol has been competitive at this level before and will be grinding away late. Expensive Game takes a noticeable drop in class and could wake up against softer competition.
Longshots
More Money Mo is a veteran maiden who continually finds ways to lose, but his late run makes him a persistent underneath threat in the exotics.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
This is a wide open affair where spreading in the Pick 4 is highly advised. Value can be found by betting Refined Design to win if the odds float up near post time.
Selections
Win: Refined Design (1) – 35% confidence
Place: Brass Nucks (2) – 25% confidence
Show: Awol (7) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Expensive Game (5) – 10% confidence
Race 4
Post Time
02:03 PM
Pace Analysis
With Sound the Siren scratching, the pace dynamic shifts slightly in this fillies and mares claiming route. Queen of Salsa and Little Dixie will be vying for early positioning. The fractions should be entirely manageable, favoring those who can stay close to the leader.
Key Contenders
Queen of Salsa is a proven commodity at this distance and level. Assael Espinoza should have her sitting in the garden spot just off the pace. Little Dixie ships in for David Jacobson and gets Ramon Vazquez, indicating clear intent.
Secondary Choices
Rodeo Star has tactical speed and Francisco Arrieta. She has been sharp in the mornings and fits the Oaklawn profile well. Summertimee is a logical horse to include in the exotics based on her consistency.
Longshots
Balls in Ur Court has a cozy rail draw and could steal a minor award if allowed to save ground the entire trip.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Queen of Salsa and Little Dixie look like the controlling elements. A cold exacta connecting the two is the primary approach, while boxing them with Rodeo Star in the trifecta offers some upside.
Selections
Win: Queen of Salsa (11) – 30% confidence
Place: Little Dixie (4) – 25% confidence
Show: Rodeo Star (10) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Summertimee (9) – 15% confidence
Race 5
Post Time
02:34 PM
Pace Analysis
The first six furlong sprint of the day features a massive field, even with Kunshan Bridge and Princip scratched. The pace will be hot and contested. Jackman and Midnight Majesty will likely lock horns early, setting up a potentially taxing opening half mile.
Key Contenders
Jackman is a hard hitting veteran dropping into a very favorable spot. Ramon Vazquez is an excellent gate rider and should establish position immediately. Midnight Majesty has the speed to dictate terms if Jackman falters, and he brings strong recent figures into the mix.
Secondary Choices
Campfire Creed is ideally drawn on the outside to stalk the expected duel. If the leaders tire, he will be the first one to pounce. K P Kwest is another veteran who knows how to win at this level and has Luis Saez in the irons.
Longshots
City of Clouds could outrun his odds if he can work out a trip from the inside post behind the speed.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Given the track bias favoring early speed in sprints, Jackman and Midnight Majesty are the prime targets. Use Campfire Creed as an alternative if you believe the pace will completely melt down.
Selections
Win: Jackman (4) – 35% confidence
Place: Midnight Majesty (2) – 25% confidence
Show: Campfire Creed (13) – 20% confidence
Alternative: K P Kwest (9) – 10% confidence
Race 6
Post Time
03:04 PM
Pace Analysis
Another massive field lines up for this six furlong claiming sprint. Holiday House is out. Classic Cut and I’m Wide Awake are the primary speed elements. Expect a swift opening quarter as several riders try to secure forward position before the turn.
Key Contenders
Ludwig represents the Norm Casse barn with Luis Saez aboard. He has excellent tactical speed and the class to handle this group. Classic Cut will be dangerous on the engine for Asmussen and will try to wire the field.
Secondary Choices
I’m Wide Awake, the second Casse entrant, is a very capable sprinter who should get a favorable stalking trip. Winit gets class relief and could figure into the finish if the pace collapses.
Longshots
It’s Bobs Business has the back class to compete here and could be an overlay on the tote board.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The Casse entry of Ludwig and I’m Wide Awake looks incredibly strong. Keying Ludwig on top of vertical exotics is the preferred play here.
Selections
Win: Ludwig (11) – 40% confidence
Place: Classic Cut (5) – 30% confidence
Show: I’m Wide Awake (13) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Winit (2) – 10% confidence
Race 7
Post Time
03:35 PM
Pace Analysis
This high level allowance optional claiming route for fillies and mares features a compact field of six. The pace should be incredibly relaxed. Zaghruta and Aledean will likely find themselves at the front of the pack simply by default.
Key Contenders
Zaghruta is the heavy hitter in this field. Trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Luis Saez, she possesses superior class lines and speed figures. She should be able to dictate the pace and put this field away in the stretch. Decadent is a talented filly for Kenny McPeek who will be trying to run the favorite down late.
Secondary Choices
Aledean is a consistent performer for Tom Amoss and will ensure Zaghruta does not get away with a walking pace. Jenkin takes a step up in class but has been improving steadily.
Longshots
Our Davina would need a career best effort to upset this group but can fill out the bottom of the superfecta.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Zaghruta is the most reliable single on the entire card. Anchor your Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets through her.
Selections
Win: Zaghruta (2) – 50% confidence
Place: Decadent (6) – 25% confidence
Show: Aledean (1) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Jenkin (4) – 10% confidence
Race 8
Post Time
04:07 PM
Pace Analysis
This lucrative allowance sprint loses Hailstorm and Tough Catch to scratches. El Prestigio and R Heisman possess serious early foot. The pace will be genuine but not necessarily destructive.
Key Contenders
El Prestigio is a very talented runner for Asmussen and gets the services of Joel Rosario. He has been highly regarded since his debut and looks ready to conquer this allowance condition. R Heisman ships in for Peter Miller with Ramon Vazquez riding. Miller has excellent numbers when shipping to Oaklawn.
Secondary Choices
Perfect Force gives Asmussen a strong backup option and will be making a late sustained run. Max Got Excited is drawn on the rail and has speed, but the inside post in sprints has been slightly less forgiving if you do not make the lead.
Longshots
Baddest Good Boy is stepping up in class but brings winning momentum into the race.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
El Prestigio offers a great combination of speed and class. Pair him with R Heisman in the daily double sequences heading into the final race.
Selections
Win: El Prestigio (5) – 45% confidence
Place: R Heisman (2) – 30% confidence
Show: Perfect Force (3) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Baddest Good Boy (7) – 5% confidence
Race 9
Post Time
04:38 PM
Pace Analysis
The nightcap is a full field of Arkansas bred maiden claimers sprinting six furlongs. Chaos usually reigns supreme in these events. Pirulita, Mazarn, and Roots Tootn will all be sending from the gates trying to clear the traffic.
Key Contenders
Pirulita takes a massive class drop into the maiden claiming ranks. Emmanuel Esquivel will have her forwardly placed, and this level of competition is exactly what she needs. Mazarn is a logical contender for Ron Moquett and will benefit from Evin Roman’s aggressive riding style.
Secondary Choices
Inuit showed brief speed in her debut and should move forward in her second career start. Paris Accord is a veteran who will be picking up tired horses in the stretch run.
Longshots
Sweet Lexus has spotty form but could hit the board if the early pace is too demanding.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Spread deep in the late multi race sequences. A small win bet on Pirulita is warranted, but exactas tying her with Mazarn and Inuit offer the best value.
Selections
Win: Pirulita (1) – 35% confidence
Place: Mazarn (12) – 25% confidence
Show: Inuit (8) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Paris Accord (3) – 10% confidence
Jockey Notes and Insights
Luis Saez continues to be a dominant force whenever he ships in to ride at Oaklawn. His aggressive gate breaking style perfectly suits the speed biased nature of the dirt sprints here. Look for him to be highly effective aboard runners like Mingo and Zaghruta today. Ramon Vazquez is another rider who consistently outruns his mounts’ odds, particularly on the turf and in routing events where timing the closing kick is essential. Emmanuel Esquivel has been heating up recently and rides the Oaklawn configuration incredibly well, specifically when saving ground on the rail.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Steven Asmussen is always dangerous at Oaklawn Park, and today he brings a loaded contingent. He has multiple live runners in Maiden Special Weight and Allowance company, signaling a strong intent to rack up wins this afternoon. Brad Cox is highly selective with his starters here, meaning Zaghruta is meant to win and win easily. Keep an eye on Kenny McPeek runners stretching out in distance, as his training regimen produces incredibly fit routers who thrive on the deeper Oaklawn dirt.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The structure of today’s card dictates leaning heavily on the proven class drops in the claiming ranks and singling the heavy favorites in the allowance events. Zaghruta in Race 7 is the strongest anchor for the late Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. For value, look toward Jackman in Race 5. His morning line odds might float up slightly due to the field size, but his tactical advantage is immense. Structuring trifectas around the Asmussen and Casse entries in the sprint races should provide solid returns while avoiding the randomness of the massive claiming fields.
