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Race 1 Maiden Special Weight 6 Furlongs Dirt $110,000
Win: QUICK TO CHARM (7) – 75% confidence
Place: LOVE SUPREME (6) – 75% confidence
Show: RIVER WIND (1) – 25% confidence
Alternative: LOVELY WORDS (2) – 12% confidence
One analyst shows strong confidence in a shortened distance for the top choice, noting peak speed figures at this trip. A consistent rival making its first start since November is widely viewed as the primary threat. Some analysts expect natural speed from the minor award contenders to dictate the early tempo.
Race 2 Maiden Claiming 1 Mile Dirt $39,000
Win: MCKINZIE’S GLORY (4) – 57% confidence
Place: RELEVATE (1) – 28% confidence
Show: DONITA (6) – 42% confidence
Alternative: WITH KINDNESS (10) – 14% confidence
The favorite is highlighted for its two-turn experience and past performance on the main track. Tension exists between analysts regarding a runner drawn wide in the ten-hole versus those returning from turf to dirt. Sharp local works are cited as a reason for inclusion of the longshot alternative.
Race 3 Claiming 6 Furlongs Dirt $31,000
Win: JET PACK (3) – 42% confidence
Place: JET PACK (3) – 28% confidence
Show: BLUE DAZZLER (10) – 42% confidence
Alternative: BALLS IN UR COURT (5) – 28% confidence
A runner entering in peak form with back-to-back wins at this distance is the focal point of the analyst pool. Significant interest is shown in a Canadian shipper making its first start on dirt, with observers noting forward morning works over the local strip. Opinions remain divided on whether current form or surface transitions will prevail.
Race 4 Starter Allowance 1 1/16 Miles Dirt $65,000
Win: SYSTEMATIC CHANGE (1) – 42% confidence
Place: SWEETALKINGBOURBON (4) – 57% confidence
Show: MENA (2) – 28% confidence
Alternative: EMPIRE BUILDER (9) – 14% confidence
The top choice is expected to benefit from the added ground in this route. A rival returning from a layoff is noted for ending last season with consecutive sharp wins at this specific distance. Analysts suggest the depth of this field is anchored by those coming out of high-quality overnight stakes races.
Race 5 Maiden Claiming 6 Furlongs Dirt $32,000
Win: PEARCY ROAD (9) – 42% confidence
Place: HUCKABY (12) – 42% confidence
Show: DAWSON JAMES (8) – 42% confidence
Alternative: COOL UNDER FIRE (5) – 14% confidence
Analysts anticipate a strong late kick from the preferred selection following a cutback to one turn. A rival with more tactical speed is expected to be closer to the early pace. There is notable consensus among the top three choices, with consistent speed figures being the primary metric used for evaluation.
Race 6 Claiming 1 1/16 Miles Dirt $31,000
Win: COBBLESTONE BRIDGE (1) – 42% confidence
Place: GA MO TAK (11) – 42% confidence
Show: HUGE BIGLY (14) – 28% confidence
Alternative: BETTERA (10) – 14% confidence
The consensus top pick is described as a runner working its way back into top form. A sharp transition back to two turns is the driving logic behind the secondary selection. Analysts also note the presence of a veteran nine-time winner who adds significant class to the bottom of the exotic tickets.
Race 7 Claiming 6 Furlongs Dirt $40,000
Win: STRATO (4) – 42% confidence
Place: KING PEANUT (7) – 71% confidence
Show: AZTECA WARRIOR (6) – 42% confidence
Alternative: YOU VEE CEE (3) – 42% confidence
The favored runner is expected to improve following a turnback in distance. Analysts are highly aligned on the secondary choice for the place position, citing its ability to finish strongly. A lack of recent activity for one contender is offset by sharp morning drills, leading to split opinions on win potential.
Race 8 Claiming 1 Mile Dirt $65,000
Win: BARB (7) – 57% confidence
Place: THE WARDEN (2) – 42% confidence
Show: ANTHONIAN (10) – 28% confidence
Alternative: CAMP EVANS (5) – 14% confidence
A preference is shown for a runner with previous success at this specific mile configuration. Analysts note that while one contender draws a wide post, its consistent nature makes it a mandatory inclusion for show. The race ending at the sixteenth pole is cited as a tactical factor for the front-running types.
Race 9 Ozark Stakes 6 Furlongs Dirt $150,000
Win: EWING (8) – 85% confidence
Place: OSCAR’S HOPE (9) – 57% confidence
Show: DIRTY RICH (1) – 42% confidence
Alternative: TIZ MARY’S COMET (2) – 14% confidence
The heavy favorite is regarded as the class of the field as a Grade 2 winner. Analysts believe the outside post provides tactical options for the jockey. A closer in the field is expected to benefit from a significant setup of early speed, potentially picking up the pieces in the final furlong.
Race 10 Allowance 1 Mile Dirt $125,000
Win: DANCE SOME MO (8) – 42% confidence
Place: CRISIS MANAGER (10) – 28% confidence
Show: GUN RUNNER CHARLIE (3) – 42% confidence
Alternative: FAUST (4) – 28% confidence
The top selection enters following a narrow defeat to a high-quality winner in its last start. A rival exits a quick overnight stakes and is viewed as more than capable of handling this distance. Analysts look for the front-runners to face pressure from a group of very consistent allowance-level performers.
Race 11 Maiden Claiming 6 Furlongs Dirt $32,000
Win: GO GO RO RO (5) – 42% confidence
Place: GO GO RO RO (5) – 28% confidence
Show: MY RUSSIAN (13) – 28% confidence
Alternative: CONWAY (2) – 28% confidence
The consensus focuses on a runner cutting back to one turn after showing high speed in two-turn efforts. A state-bred runner returning to familiar company is viewed as a live longshot. The spread of opinions in this finale suggests a wide-open maiden event where late-closing types could surprise.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Analysts suggest that Race 1 is an ideal spot for a cold Exacta using the 7 and 6, given the 75% consensus on both positions. The stability of these two runners at the six-furlong distance makes them the most reliable anchors on the card.
In Race 3, analysts recommend a Trifecta box featuring the 3, 10, and 5. With a Canadian shipper moving to dirt and the peak form of the 3, this combination covers the most likely outcomes in a race where pace scenarios are volatile.
For Race 9, analysts propose a Superfecta key with EWING (8) on top of the 9, 1, and 2. Given the 85% win confidence, focusing funds on the minor positions of Oscar’s Hope (9) and Dirty Rich (1) provides the best path to a high-payout exotic.
Race 11 is viewed by analysts as a “spread” race. A 50-cent Trifecta box involving the 5, 2, 3, and 6 is recommended to capture the value in a race where the analyst pool is deeply divided on the eventual winner.
Value Play Observations
Analysts identify RIVER WIND (1) in Race 1 as a potential overlay. While only holding 25% consensus for the win, its presence in multiple analyst top-three lists suggests it is being undervalued compared to its morning line odds.
In Race 7, YOU VEE CEE (3) is highlighted as a value play. Despite holding strong consensus for the win among some analysts, its long layoff might lead the public to ignore its sharp half-mile drills, creating a pricing inefficiency.
Race 10 presents an opportunity with IRISH GUARD (5). While not the primary consensus pick, two major analysts have selected it to win, suggesting it possesses a higher probability of victory than its likely middle-of-the-pack odds would indicate.
Overall Wagering Strategy
The strongest consensus on the holiday card at Oaklawn Park is centered on the featured Ozark Stakes in Race 9. Analysts are nearly unanimous in backing EWING (8), a Grade 2 winner who holds a distinct class advantage over this field. With 85% confidence, this runner serves as the primary anchor for multi-race sequences. Similarly, Race 1 shows a high degree of alignment between QUICK TO CHARM (7) and LOVE SUPREME (6), providing a stable foundation for early Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets. Bettors should prioritize these races as high-conviction legs where risk can be concentrated on single horses or narrow combinations.
In contrast, Race 3 and Race 11 are identified as the primary split-opinion races. In the third, the analytical tension between the peak-form JET PACK (3) and the dirt-debuting BALLS IN UR COURT (5) suggests a wider spread is necessary. The finale in Race 11 is even more fragmented, with four different horses receiving win votes across the analyst pool. This lack of a dominant favorite indicates a higher probability of an upset, making these races unsuitable for singles in horizontal wagers but excellent for building value in vertical exotics like trifectas and superfectas.
Consecutive races from Race 7 through Race 9 offer a compelling multi-race sequence. With strong consensus on KING PEANUT (7) and BARB (7) in the lead-up to the Ozark Stakes, a Pick 3 construction focused on these favorites can be played with reduced volatility. The environmental factor of the sixteenth-pole finish for mile races (Race 2, 8, and 10) should be closely monitored, as it often favors tactical speed over late-closing power. Key takeaways for the day include leveraging the heavy consensus in the stakes feature and looking for value in the maiden sprints where turnback specialists are undervalued by the general betting public.
