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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
This Monday card features nine competitive races anchored by challenging claiming events and a pair of high quality allowance sprints. The conditions cater primarily to specialists who have proven they can handle the unique challenges of the desert oval. With a mix of seasoned veterans dropping in class and promising local breds looking to break their maidens, handicappers are presented with a deep puzzle. The key to conquering this specific card will be identifying class drops and trainer intentions, especially horses shedding maiden special weight conditions to drop into the maiden claiming ranks.
Weather and Track Conditions
In Sunland Park, current conditions are 47°F and sunny with a 3 mph wind from the northwest and 51% humidity, while the daily forecast for today predicts cloudy conditions, a high of 74°F, a low of 42°F, 30% humidity, a 9 mph wind from the southwest, and a 10% chance of rain.
The track bias consistently rewards tactical stalkers who can sustain their speed over the deep and loose dirt surface. This environment often punishes front runners who go too fast early. The most profitable profile to target will be horses that possess enough natural speed to stay within a few lengths of the lead but have the physical conditioning to power through the tiring final yards.
Jockey Notes and Insights
The jockey colony is highly competitive. Luis Negron has excellent mounts throughout the card and frequently rides for top barns, demonstrating an exceptional ability to judge the pace. Alfredo Juarez Jr is a master of the inner rail who rarely gets trapped and gets the absolute most out of claiming horses. Luis Valenzuela and Ken Tohill are aggressive gate riders who know exactly how much energy they can ask of their mounts in the early stages without compromising the finish.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Dick Cappellucci enters several strong contenders on this card, specifically in the claiming ranks where he excels at placing his horses at the exact right level. Justin Evans is another powerhouse trainer whose horses often show improved tactical speed and conditioning. Todd Fincher brings his usual strong hand of state breds, particularly in the later races, and his class drops are loud statements of intent. Joel Marr continues to be a steady force with older horses returning from short freshenings.
Race 1
Post Time
12:25PM
Pace Analysis
At five and a half furlongs for three year old fillies, expect a swift and contested early pace. Horses drawn on the outside have a distinct advantage as their riders can let the inner speed duel materialize before committing to a final path.
Key Contenders
Mixtery draws a favorable outside post and gets the services of top jockey Luis Negron for a perfect stalking trip. Gypsy Wildcat adds Alfredo Juarez Jr in the irons and should be heavily involved from the start.
Secondary Choices
Eighteyesondeborah brings a cagey veteran rider who knows how to save ground and make one sustained run. Venus Rocks draws well in post ten and could capitalize if the front runners collapse late in the lane.
Longshots
Awesome Glory breaks from the rail and might hold on for a minor award if she can secure the lead and relax.
Race 2
Post Time
12:51PM
Pace Analysis
This four and a half furlong dash is the ultimate test of pure gate speed. The horse that breaks the sharpest and secures the rail will have a massive advantage. Expect Blazing to Gold and Shame On Whiskey to be the primary pace engines.
Key Contenders
Blazing to Gold looks formidable with a class relief into this lower claiming tier that should be exactly what this gelding needs. Shame On Whiskey has back class that suggests he can dominate this field if he breaks alertly.
Secondary Choices
Hit Btween the Ice is a veteran who knows exactly where the wire is and will likely try to save ground. Mister Mafioso has competitive speed figures for this level and should be respected.
Longshots
Finglas Lad might be overlooked but can occasionally coax a massive effort to come flying late if the top choices duel into defeat.
Race 3
Post Time
01:17PM
Pace Analysis
Going six furlongs, the pace in this claiming event should be honest but not self destructive. There is enough tactical speed spread throughout the field to ensure a fair pace with inside pressure.
Key Contenders
John John represents a major drop in class for a powerful barn and should stalk the early leaders before pouncing in the stretch. Vols looks like a serious threat to wire the field if left alone on the lead.
Secondary Choices
Attilas Boy draws the inside post and will need to secure early positioning to avoid getting shuffled back. Rainbow Crest can pick up a piece of the purse with a late closing run.
Longshots
Smoke Stack could outrun his expected odds if the track profile plays fair to closers.
Race 4
Post Time
01:43PM
Pace Analysis
This six and a half furlong event requires stamina as much as speed. Expect a moderate pace as riders try to conserve energy for the long stretch drive. Captain Fabulous and Diablo Rosso should be forwardly placed.
Key Contenders
Captain Fabulous has been knocking on the door and seems primed for a breakthrough performance today. Diablo Rosso offers a strong tactical presence and will be applying pressure every single step of the way.
Secondary Choices
Handmedown dOro possesses the stamina to outlast the early speed types. Crossrighthands breaking from the rail could surprise if he settles early.
Longshots
Mark Me In could be a factor if guided cleanly through traffic, having shown brief flashes of serious ability in the past.
Race 5
Post Time
02:09PM
Pace Analysis
Fillies and mares traveling six furlongs usually results in a hot early tempo. Several of these runners are need the lead types, which will set things up perfectly for a stalker.
Key Contenders
Methods drops into a highly favorable spot and can sit just off the hot pace to make a decisive move on the turn. In Spite of It looks poised to improve drastically in this spot.
Secondary Choices
Hook Em Up has dangerous early speed and might be incredibly tough to reel in if the track is favoring speed. Charlotte Spider will be prompting the pace and could hang on for a minor share.
Longshots
Annie Get Ur Guns is an older mare who might relish the class relief and look to weave through tired horses late.
Race 6
Post Time
02:37PM
Pace Analysis
At one mile, stamina is the ultimate equalizer in the desert air. The pace should be highly measured, as riders know better than to empty their horses early over this track.
Key Contenders
American Empire is a massive standout with the back class and tactical speed to control this race from start to finish. Three Martinis is strictly the one to beat if the favorite stubs his toe.
Secondary Choices
Farmer Fred R F is a veteran who grinds out his earnings year after year and will keep moving late. Pray for Me Ray could secure a gorgeous trip saving ground along the rail.
Longshots
Grifter is capable of running a massive race on his best day if he stays focused and out of trouble.
Race 7
Post Time
03:04PM
Pace Analysis
Allowance runners dashing four and a half furlongs guarantees absolute fireworks. This will be a flat out sprint from flag drop to finish line with outside runners firing out to establish dominant position.
Key Contenders
Bye appears to have the definitive class edge in this allowance test and should sit a perfect trip just off the impending speed duel. Double Ride draws nicely on the outside and will be in the thick of things early.
Secondary Choices
Aztec Sun has solid credentials and should be rolling late when the front runners get tired. Ruggs breaks from the rail and will have to be used aggressively early to maintain position.
Longshots
Lite Ranchin Kid steps up in class but has been training well enough to warrant a serious look at long odds.
Race 8
Post Time
03:32PM
Pace Analysis
This six and a half furlong allowance for state breds will be hotly contested. With a full field of ten, positioning going into the far turn is absolutely critical.
Key Contenders
Diabolical Storm represents a powerful stable and will likely employ stalking tactics to slowly wear down the early leaders. Hezekiahs Rule is an automatic inclusion based on a highly successful jockey and trainer combination.
Secondary Choices
Attilianno should benefit greatly from a fast pace up front. Leave Them Behind will try to take them all the way on the engine.
Longshots
One Mark has back class and could surprise if the track profile shifts to favor deep closers as the day progresses.
Race 9
Post Time
04:00PM
Pace Analysis
Maiden claimers going six and a half furlongs usually result in a grueling war of attrition. The pace could be erratic as these horses are still figuring out the racing game.
Key Contenders
American Secrets drops into the claiming ranks and should see a much improved effort against softer company. Mindblower is part of a formidable uncoupled entry for the same top barn.
Secondary Choices
Awsome Charlie gets much needed class relief and should be running on late when the early speed fades. Sapello Gusto has experience and might finally put it all together.
Longshots
Chino Mirage breaks from the rail and might hang around to inflate exotic payouts if he can nurse his speed and save ground.
