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Today features a deep mix of maiden, allowance, and claiming events, headlined by the Mardi Gras Stakes for older fillies and mares dashing five and a half furlongs over the turf course in race eight. With several top national barns shipping in their prime prospects and leading riders dominating the jockey colony, bettors are presented with excellent opportunities to find value across the sequence. Navigating the unique track geometry and current biases at Fair Grounds will be paramount for any profitable wagering strategy today.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for New Orleans this Tuesday afternoon calls for favorable racing weather. Temperatures are expected to peak in the low to mid sixties with partly cloudy skies and a gentle breeze out of the south. With no significant precipitation over the last forty eight hours, expect the main dirt track to be rated Fast. The turf course should carry a Firm designation, allowing for fair, true grass racing.
Track Bias and Post Position Bias
The Fair Grounds main dirt track has demonstrated a pronounced bias toward early speed and inside posts throughout the 2025 to 2026 meet. In dirt sprints at six furlongs, horses possessing early speed have dominated, winning nearly a third of all contests wire to wire. The rail and inside posts carry a significant advantage in these sprint events, making it difficult for deep closers to make up ground on the sweeping turns unless a complete pace meltdown occurs. Dirt routes at one mile and a sixteenth show a similar pattern, favoring early speed and tactical pressers who can secure the inside rail position heading into the first turn.
Turf racing presents a slightly different puzzle. In turf sprints, tactical pressers who stalk just off the early pace tend to fare best, though inside posts still retain a slight edge. Turf routes, however, play much more fairly to different running styles. Wire to wire winners in turf routes are a rarity, hitting at less than ten percent for the meet. Closers and patient stalkers who are drawn in outside posts often find the most success, as they can save ground early and mount a sustained run down the long Fair Grounds stretch.
Jockey Notes and Insights
The jockey colony at Fair Grounds is currently loaded with premier riding talent. Jose L Ortiz is riding at an elite level, recently capturing leading rider honors and demonstrating a masterclass in timing his moves over the long stretch. His ability to save ground on the turf and coax speed out of dirt sprinters makes his mounts incredibly dangerous. Irad Ortiz Jr is matching his brother stride for stride, boasting a massive strike rate for top national trainers. He is particularly lethal when drawing inside posts on dirt, rarely making a tactical error.
Jareth Loveberry remains a consistent force on the local circuit, riding the Fair Grounds surface with deep localized knowledge. He frequently outruns his mounts odds by finding the right early position. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr and James Graham continue to provide steady, patient rides, particularly in two turn route races where their experience navigating traffic becomes a massive asset.
Trainer Notes and Insights
The trainer standings are currently a battle of heavyweights. Brad Cox and Steve Asmussen are dominating the top of the leaderboard, both already surpassing the million dollar earnings mark for the meet. Cox brings an incredibly high win percentage to the table, and his horses are consistently heavily backed at the windows. Asmussen utilizes volume and precision, often dropping his horses into the exact right class levels.
Cherie DeVaux has been turning heads with a string of high profile stakes victories and a highly profitable return on investment for bettors. Her turf runners demand extreme respect. Joe Sharp and Kenneth McPeek are also highly active today, frequently sending out live runners at overlaid odds in the maiden and allowance ranks.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The most effective strategy for today requires leaning heavily into the dirt speed bias. In dirt sprints, focus exotic wagers on horses breaking from posts one through four who possess high early pace figures. Downgrade any deep closers on the main track unless there is an abundance of cheap, contested speed signed on.
For the Pick 5 sequences, anchoring tickets with Brad Cox runners drawn favorably will provide solid building blocks. In the turf routes, seek value by identifying horses with late closing kicks breaking from middle or outside posts, as the betting public often overvalues inside speed on the grass. The late Pick 4 features several vulnerable favorites, offering a prime opportunity to spread your tickets and target a larger payout.
Race 1
Post Time
12:45 PM
Pace Analysis
This opening race is a one mile dirt test for Louisiana bred maidens. The pace scenario appears moderate. Top Notch Protocol should establish the early lead from the outside post, with Musical Band and Remi securing stalking trips just off his flank. Alwaysfreaky may attempt to push the pace to avoid being caught wide.
Key Contenders
Musical Band takes a significant drop into the maiden ranks after facing tougher company. The Shane Wilson trainee retains Jose L Ortiz, signaling serious intent. Top Notch Protocol has knocked on the door in his previous efforts and gets a favorable outside draw to dictate the fractions under James Graham.
Secondary Choices
Remi is a logical alternative who has shown tactical foot in the past. If the top two duel early, Marcelino Pedroza Jr will have this gelding perfectly positioned for a late strike. Alwaysfreaky has displayed flashes of ability but needs to overcome a slight class hurdle today.
Longshots
Seize the Win breaks from the rail with Jareth Loveberry aboard. If the speed bias holds strong, he could leverage the inside draw to hold on for a minor award at a price.
Betting Strategy & Wagering Angles
Key Musical Band and Top Notch Protocol in exactas. The class drop and rider assignment make Musical Band the primary focus.
Selections
Win: Musical Band (3) – 40% confidence Place: Top Notch Protocol (7) – 30% confidence Show: Remi (4) – 20% confidence Alternative: Alwaysfreaky (5) – 10% confidence
Race 2
Post Time
01:15 PM
Pace Analysis
A five and a half furlong sprint on the main track means raw speed will be the deciding factor. Wholelottadeal and Mister Banderas possess blazing early foot and should lock horns immediately after the gates open. Achromedoutcat will look to sit the pocket trip right behind them.
Key Contenders
Wholelottadeal gets the rail post and Irad Ortiz Jr. Given the intense inside speed bias at Fair Grounds, this horse is perfectly positioned to wire the field. Mister Banderas is the primary threat for trainer Thomas Amoss with Jose L Ortiz in the irons. He will press the issue from the five hole and try to break the favorite in the stretch.
Secondary Choices
Classical Knight is an intriguing option with Jareth Loveberry. If the top two engage in a destructive speed duel, Classical Knight has the closing profile to pick up the pieces. Hesper fits a similar profile and could factor into the exotics.
Longshots
Starry Eyed will be a large price but has decent back class. Erica Murray will need to navigate a perfect trip to hit the board.
Betting Strategy & Wagering Angles
Single Wholelottadeal in multi race sequences. The combination of the rail draw, the severe track bias, and Irad Ortiz Jr makes him a formidable favorite.
Selections
Win: Wholelottadeal (1) – 55% confidence Place: Mister Banderas (5) – 25% confidence Show: Classical Knight (2) – 15% confidence Alternative: Hesper (6) – 5% confidence
Race 3
Post Time
01:45 PM
Pace Analysis
With Pasila and Pickin Ana Grinnin scratched, this allowance optional claiming route at one mile and seventy yards becomes much more tactical. Canal Street will likely inherit the uncontested lead, while Cool Lucky Lady will sit in the garden spot tracking the moderate tempo.
Key Contenders
Cool Lucky Lady is the class of the field for Bret Calhoun. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr will have her within striking distance throughout, and she possesses the strongest late kick of this group. Canal Street is the stablemate to the top choice and could prove very dangerous if left alone on the front end.
Secondary Choices
Sweet Alexis gets Jose L Ortiz and makes her third start off a layoff, a highly profitable angle for trainer Keith Bourgeois. She fits perfectly with these and should be running on late.
Longshots
Hopeitsmyluckyday is an aging mare but still has some fight left. She could grab a lower exotics share if the pace completely collapses.
Betting Strategy & Wagering Angles
Box the Calhoun entry of Cool Lucky Lady and Canal Street. They have a tactical advantage over the rest of the field and should control the race from start to finish.
Selections
Win: Cool Lucky Lady (4) – 45% confidence Place: Canal Street (2) – 30% confidence Show: Sweet Alexis (5) – 15% confidence Alternative: Jus Makes Cents (7) – 10% confidence
Race 4
Post Time
02:15 PM
Pace Analysis
This maiden special weight on the turf features several highly regarded three year olds. With multiple scratches, the pace should be honest but not overly taxing. Good Willie and Road Trippin will show early interest, while the heavy hitters look to save ground for the stretch run.
Key Contenders
Jarrett makes his debut for the Brad Cox barn with Irad Ortiz Jr riding. The pedigree suggests he will relish the distance and the surface. Mount Vernon is a major player for Cherie DeVaux with Jose L Ortiz. DeVaux excels with these turf debutantes, and this colt has been working brilliantly in the mornings.
Secondary Choices
Citatus represents the powerful Steve Asmussen stable. With James Graham taking the reins, expect a patient ride resulting in a strong late run. Cool Customer has valuable racing experience that the top choices lack and cannot be dismissed.
Longshots
Taterpie might fly under the radar for Gregory Foley. He has stamina influences on the bottom of his pedigree and could sneak into the trifecta at generous odds.
Betting Strategy & Wagering Angles
Lean on the first time starters from the top barns. Exacta box Jarrett and Mount Vernon, as they appear a cut above the rest on paper.
Selections
Win: Jarrett (8) – 40% confidence Place: Mount Vernon (5) – 35% confidence Show: Citatus (2) – 15% confidence Alternative: Cool Customer (3) – 10% confidence
Race 5
Post Time
02:45 PM
Pace Analysis
A maiden optional claiming dirt route with scratches paring the field down to five runners. Flash of Chaos and Props will likely duel for the early advantage. Fake Smart should enjoy a pristine stalking trip right behind the speed.
Key Contenders
Fake Smart gets a massive rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz Jr for Joe Sharp. He drops slightly in class and figures to receive the perfect tactical setup. Twenty Two Black represents Kenneth McPeek and Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. He stretches out in distance today, which should suit his grinding running style perfectly.
Secondary Choices
Flash of Chaos brings western form to Fair Grounds for Peter Eurton. The presence of Jose L Ortiz means he will be well backed, and he could prove tough to catch if he shakes loose.
Longshots
Props has struggled to put together a complete race but could hang on for a minor award in this short field.
Betting Strategy & Wagering Angles
Fake Smart looks very tough to beat given the pace scenario. Use him as a single in the Pick 5 and key him on top of trifectas.
Selections
Win: Fake Smart (6) – 50% confidence Place: Twenty Two Black (1) – 25% confidence Show: Flash of Chaos (5) – 20% confidence Alternative: Sunset Skip (2) – 5% confidence
Race 6
Post Time
03:15 PM
Pace Analysis
This grassy route for older fillies and mares features a contentious pace scenario. Exclusive Star and Queen Wilhelmina both want the lead. This should set things up perfectly for the mid pack stalkers and closers in the bulky eleven horse field.
Key Contenders
Ontario has been knocking on the door in similar spots. Irad Ortiz Jr takes the mount for Joe Sharp, and her off the pace running style is perfectly suited for today’s race shape. Sy B gets the inside draw with Jose L Ortiz. If she can navigate traffic from the rail, her late turn of foot makes her a massive threat.
Secondary Choices
Malibu Smart is a proven turf commodity for Michael Maker. She rarely runs a bad race and will be closing furiously under Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. Competitive Threat ships in for Robertino Diodoro and brings solid synthetic form that should translate well to the lawn.
Longshots
Channel Check has European breeding and might appreciate the firm ground today. She is worth a look underneath in deep exotic wagers.
Betting Strategy & Wagering Angles
The pace meltdown scenario favors Ontario and Sy B. Play them in an exacta box and use both in multi race sequences.
Selections
Win: Ontario (5) – 35% confidence Place: Sy B (1) – 30% confidence Show: Malibu Smart (3) – 20% confidence Alternative: Competitive Threat (7) – 15% confidence
Race 7
Post Time
03:45 PM
Pace Analysis
Three year old fillies stretch out to a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. Abilene and Lady Law will show the most early intent. The fractions should be moderate, giving the tactical pressers a distinct advantage.
Key Contenders
Tap to Open is a high priced yearling purchase making her first route attempt for Brad Cox. Irad Ortiz Jr will likely sit just off the leaders and pounce turning for home. Love and Trust is a major danger for Cherie DeVaux. Jose L Ortiz will ensure she gets a clean trip, and her recent workouts suggest she is primed for a big effort.
Secondary Choices
Pure Joy boasts the Steve Asmussen and Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr connection. She has tactical speed and should be involved from the outset. Countess is the other Asmussen entrant and could improve sharply at this longer distance.
Longshots
Sister Jean could clunk up for third or fourth if the favorites misfire, but she looks slightly overmatched on paper.
Betting Strategy & Wagering Angles
Tap to Open has the profile of a filly destined for graded stakes company. Key her on top and spread underneath for value.
Selections
Win: Tap to Open (3) – 45% confidence Place: Love and Trust (2) – 30% confidence Show: Pure Joy (4) – 15% confidence Alternative: Countess (8) – 10% confidence
Race 8
Post Time
04:15 PM
Pace Analysis
The featured Mardi Gras Stakes is a five and a half furlong turf dash. With multiple scratches, the pace will be electric. Big Trouble, Twirl Around, and Party Pauline all possess blinding early speed. This sets up beautifully for a horse coming from slightly off the pace.
Key Contenders
Shining Star looks incredibly formidable here. Trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Jose L Ortiz, she has the perfect stalking style for this distance and will benefit greatly from the projected pace meltdown. Civetta makes her seasonal debut for Brendan Walsh. She has massive class appeal and simply needs a clean trip under Ben Curtis to be right there at the wire.
Secondary Choices
Lotsandlotsofcandy is a hard trying mare who rarely runs out of the money. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr knows her well and will have her rolling late. Big Trouble could be dangerous if she manages to clear the rest of the speed, but that seems unlikely given the composition of the field.
Longshots
Annie’s Joy brings local synthetic form to the turf. She is a massive price but could clunk into the superfecta if the pace completely falls apart.
Betting Strategy & Wagering Angles
Shining Star is the most likely winner on the card given the setup. Single her to finish off the early Pick 5 and use her as a key in the late Pick 4.
Selections
Win: Shining Star (6) – 50% confidence Place: Civetta (5) – 25% confidence Show: Lotsandlotsofcandy (7) – 15% confidence Alternative: Big Trouble (1) – 10% confidence
Race 9
Post Time
04:45 PM
Pace Analysis
The nightcap is a six furlong dirt sprint for Louisiana bred maidens. The pace will be honest with Von Erich, Dirty Straight Up, and A G’s Charlie all vying for the front. The race will likely be decided in the final furlong by whichever horse conserves the most energy.
Key Contenders
I Got the Hint removes the blinkers today for Joe Sharp. Irad Ortiz Jr hops aboard, suggesting the horse is ready to fire a career best effort. Bad Joke draws the absolute rail, which is a massive advantage at this distance. Jareth Loveberry will send him hard, and if he gets the lead, he might not look back.
Secondary Choices
My Touch has faced tougher fields in the past and gets Jose L Ortiz today. He should be tracking the early speed and will get the first run at the leaders. Von Erich has shown speed in the mornings but needs to translate that to the afternoon.
Longshots
Fortysvenforthewin could pick up the pieces if the early pace is suicidal. He is worth including in the bottom rung of exotic tickets.
Betting Strategy & Wagering Angles
I Got the Hint and Bad Joke look like the standouts. Box them in the exacta to close out the day, leaning slightly toward the equipment change angle with I Got the Hint.
Selections
Win: I Got the Hint (5) – 40% confidence Place: Bad Joke (1) – 35% confidence Show: My Touch (3) – 15% confidence Alternative: Von Erich (2) – 10% confidence
