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Today features an eight race card at Turf Paradise. The conditions are standard for a mid week meet, highlighted by a blend of claiming and allowance events on both the dirt and the turf. Bettors will have plenty of options to find value across the afternoon. The competitive fields offer a chance for lucrative payouts, particularly in the multi race horizontal wagers. Handicappers are noting that several horses dropping in class today could offer significant value, and the full fields in the lower level claiming ranks promise chaotic but rewarding finishes for those who handicap the pace correctly.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather in Phoenix for Tuesday, February 17, 2026, is expected to be mostly sunny with a high of 66 degrees. Morning showers have moved out of the area, leaving favorable conditions for a great day of racing. The main dirt track is expected to play fast, while the turf course should be firm.
When handicapping Turf Paradise, it is crucial to understand the track profile. Historically, the dirt track plays fairly true, though early speed can be advantageous in the shorter sprint distances. For the turf course, post position bias is highly significant. Data suggests that inside posts, particularly posts one and two, hold a distinct advantage, winning nearly 39 percent of the time in route races. Conversely, horses drawn outside in large fields on the turf often struggle with immense ground loss on the turns. The overall favorite win percentage at Turf Paradise hovers around 38 percent, which is higher than the national average, making it a reliable track for formful results at the top of the ticket.
Race 1 – Optional Claiming
Post Time
01:15PM
Pace Analysis
This is a 400 yard Quarter Horse sprint on the dirt. Pace analysis in these short dashes relies entirely on the break from the gate. With a massive field of twelve horses lined up, the middle and inside gates often have an edge in securing a clean, unobstructed path. Expect an all out sprint from the opening bell with no room for error.
Key Contenders
Special D (2) arrives with strong recent form and looks perfectly placed to succeed in this spot. Handicappers have noted this runner’s consistency at similar conditions, and a clean break from the inside post should ensure a top effort.
Tempting Chad (1) finished runner up in a slightly higher class race last time out. Breaking from the rail gives a distinct ground saving advantage right from the jump, making this horse a major factor.
Secondary Choices
Seisponte (10) has been very consistent at this level. Starting from an outside post could actually be beneficial here to avoid the early traffic issues that frequently plague these massive fields on the inside.
Hawkeyes Cartel (11) drops slightly in class and could find this competition much more to their liking if they can overcome the wide draw with early acceleration.
Longshots
Cartel Drunk Playboy (5) possesses back class and might wake up at a generous price. The middle draw allows for options depending on how the break unfolds.
Betting strategy relies heavily on the inside speed. Exacta boxes using the inside runners are a smart approach, while keeping the outside closers underneath in trifecta wagers to capture value.
Selections
Win: SPECIAL D (2) – 40% confidence
Place: TEMPTING CHAD (1) – 30% confidence
Show: SEISPONTE (10) – 20% confidence
Alternative: HAWKEYES CARTEL (11) – 10% confidence
Race 2 – Claiming
Post Time
01:40PM
Pace Analysis
Going six furlongs on the dirt, the pace should be honest and steady. There are a few front runners drawn to the middle and outside, which should ensure a solid tempo from the outset. Closers will have a fair shot if the fractions get too hot early on.
Key Contenders
Selinus (2) has been the runner up in two recent starts and looks poised to finally break through. The inside post is a massive benefit, allowing for a ground saving trip right behind the early speed.
Embraceable You (3) won over this track and distance last time out. Even with a step up in class today, the recent winning form is undeniable and commands respect from all expert handicappers.
Secondary Choices
Charmz (4) won last time out and offers plenty of appeal. The tactical speed this horse possesses will keep them firmly in the mix turning for home.
Annamaria (1) drops into a claimer and could improve significantly against lesser company. The rail draw is perfect for a stalking trip.
Longshots
Randi Randi Randi (6) has been running evenly and could hit the board if the top contenders falter in the deep stretch.
Wagering angles suggest leaning on the proven track and distance form. Keying the horses with recent local success in the multi race wagers provides a solid foundation.
Selections
Win: EMBRACEABLE YOU (3) – 35% confidence
Place: SELINUS (2) – 35% confidence
Show: CHARMZ (4) – 20% confidence
Alternative: ANNAMARIA (1) – 10% confidence
Race 3 – Allowance Optional Claiming
Post Time
02:07PM
Pace Analysis
At one mile on the turf, the early pace is usually moderate and strategic. With the rail set at 28 feet, inside speed is paramount. Horses breaking from the inner posts will sprint to save ground into the first turn, establishing a tactical advantage for the rest of the race.
Key Contenders
Factory Drive (4) looks well placed to build on a solid third place effort last time out. The middle draw should allow for a clean stalking trip just off the early leaders.
No Ordinary Tiger (3) won over the track and distance two starts back. Handicappers have pinpointed this runner as a major threat based on sheer class and distance affinity.
Secondary Choices
Jacked Up (5) steps down in class and could show significant improvement. The drop in class is a historically powerful angle at this track.
Thirsty Vision (1) gets the highly advantageous rail draw on the turf. Given the extreme bias toward inside posts on the grass course, this horse must be included on all tickets.
Longshots
Kangaroo Coast (2) possesses tactical speed and could hold on for a minor award if the pace is incredibly soft early on.
Betting angles point aggressively to the inside runners. An exacta box leaning on the inside three posts is a highly sensible strategy given the historical track data.
Selections
Win: FACTORY DRIVE (4) – 35% confidence
Place: NO ORDINARY TIGER (3) – 30% confidence
Show: THIRSTY VISION (1) – 20% confidence
Alternative: JACKED UP (5) – 15% confidence
Race 4 – Claiming
Post Time
02:36PM
Pace Analysis
This six and a half furlong dirt sprint will demand early positioning. The pace should be highly contested, with several entrants known for flashing early foot. Expect a rapid opening quarter mile that could set the race up nicely for a mid pack closer.
Key Contenders
Standard of Proof (7) won last time out and looks primed to follow up against this group. The outside draw should keep them out of trouble and allow the jockey to visually measure the early speed.
Moonlight Road (5) finished a close second recently and rates as the next best option. This horse has tactical flexibility and can adapt to the pace scenario.
Secondary Choices
Big Producer (3) drops in class and could mount a serious challenge. Class droppers in these sprint races often find a renewed sense of confidence.
Five Twenty Sunset (1) draws the rail and can save ground the entire way around the turn.
Longshots
Sir Lucas (6) has shown flashes of brilliance in the past and could outrun their morning line odds if left alone on the lead.
The betting strategy here is to fade the intense early speed. Look to back the stalkers who can capitalize on tired legs in the final furlong.
Selections
Win: STANDARD OF PROOF (7) – 40% confidence
Place: MOONLIGHT ROAD (5) – 30% confidence
Show: BIG PRODUCER (3) – 20% confidence
Alternative: FIVE TWENTY SUNSET (1) – 10% confidence
Race 5 – Claiming
Post Time
03:06PM
Pace Analysis
A five furlong dash for fillies and mares requires pure speed. There is no time for settling. The gates will open and the field will immediately scramble for position, heavily favoring the runners who can break sharply and maintain a high cruising speed.
Key Contenders
Behindthebar (4) has strong claims after a good second last time out and can absolutely go one better today. The central post position is ideal for this explosive runner.
C Plum Run (1) is highly respected following consistent placed efforts and gets the inside draw, which is a massive advantage in these short sprints.
Secondary Choices
Coracoracora (6) could challenge if building on recent form. The outside post means they must break perfectly to avoid losing ground.
Royal Dusty (5) has the necessary tactical speed to get into the mix early and hold on for a share of the purse.
Longshots
Luna Linda (7) is capable of a late closing kick if the front runners engage in a destructive speed duel.
Wagering on this race should focus heavily on the top two choices. A win bet on the top selection paired with a cold exacta is a high value proposition.
Selections
Win: BEHINDTHEBAR (4) – 40% confidence
Place: C PLUM RUN (1) – 30% confidence
Show: CORACORACORA (6) – 20% confidence
Alternative: ROYAL DUSTY (5) – 10% confidence
Race 6 – Allowance Optional Claiming
Post Time
03:35PM
Pace Analysis
Going six and a half furlongs, the pace in this allowance race will be dictated by the class of the field. Expect a moderate to fast tempo. The horses drawn on the outside possess enough natural speed to clear the field, which might force the inside runners to rate just off the pace.
Key Contenders
You’reinthearmynow (7) narrowly missed out last time and looks primed to go one better. This runner brings the highest speed figures into the race and will be difficult to beat.
Perfect Prankster (2) won over the track and distance recently and rates as a massive threat. The inside draw ensures they will not have to work too hard early on.
Secondary Choices
Brownstone (4) has placed in this class and could challenge late. Look for this horse to be passing tired rivals in the stretch.
Petesoldfashioned (6) shows great early speed metrics and could be extremely tough to catch if allowed an easy lead.
Longshots
Winning Big (1) draws the rail and could sit a perfect pocket trip, ready to pounce if the leaders drift out.
The strategy here is to lean on the proven class. Singling the top choice in the horizontal wagers is a smart way to maximize the budget for the more difficult races later in the card.
Selections
Win: YOU’REINTHEARMYNOW (7) – 45% confidence
Place: PERFECT PRANKSTER (2) – 30% confidence
Show: BROWNSTONE (4) – 15% confidence
Alternative: PETESOLDFASHIONED (6) – 10% confidence
Race 7 – Claiming
Post Time
04:05PM
Pace Analysis
Returning to the turf for a one mile route, the pace will be entirely dictated by the rail setting. With the rail out at 28 feet, early speed is critical. The field will condense quickly heading into the first turn, and anyone caught wide will face a monumental task.
Key Contenders
Shut Up Michael (IRE) (10) comes off a convincing win and looks well placed to follow up despite the challenging outside draw. This horse has the class to overcome the post position disadvantage.
Summer Lover (3) impressed when winning last time out and rates as a major danger. A favorable inside draw gives this runner a perfect stalking position.
Secondary Choices
Vorpal (9) made all to score recently and warrants immense respect if allowed to dictate the pace on the front end.
Law Abiding (5) represents tremendous value and fits nicely in the middle of the pack, poised to strike when the real running begins.
Longshots
Delian League (1) secures the coveted rail position on the turf course and cannot be ignored at a price.
Given the extreme outside draw of the favorite, looking for value underneath is the best wagering angle. Boxing the inside and middle drawn horses in the exacta could yield a handsome reward.
Selections
Win: SHUT UP MICHAEL (IRE) (10) – 35% confidence
Place: SUMMER LOVER (3) – 30% confidence
Show: LAW ABIDING (5) – 20% confidence
Alternative: VORPAL (9) – 15% confidence
Race 8 – Claiming
Post Time
04:40PM
Pace Analysis
The finale is a six and a half furlong dirt sprint. With a full field of ten, the pace will be frantic. Several horses are desperate for a win and will be sent hard from the gate. Expect a blistering early pace that will absolutely favor the deep closers.
Key Contenders
Fort Langley (8) has strong claims based on consistent recent form, including a very close second last time out. The outside draw is actually favorable here to stay out of the early speed duel.
El Diamante Negro (3) can build on a good third two starts back and has the tactical versatility to sit just off the hot pace.
Secondary Choices
Weekend Flame (5) is also heavily in the mix and has competitive speed figures that fit this level perfectly.
Bad Sneakers (1) gets the rail and has past form that makes them a contender at a considerable price if they can work out a trip.
Longshots
Our Bold Prince (7) is a wily veteran carrying a light weight today and could absolutely spice up the superfecta payouts.
The betting strategy for the nightcap is to spread deep in the exotics. Identifying the closers and playing them over the tired speed horses in the trifecta is the optimal approach to close out the day.
Selections
Win: FORT LANGLEY (8) – 35% confidence
Place: EL DIAMANTE NEGRO (3) – 30% confidence
Show: WEEKEND FLAME (5) – 20% confidence
Alternative: BAD SNEAKERS (1) – 15% confidence
Jockey Notes and Insights
Several top tier jockeys are riding the card today. Manuel Americano has a full book and looks incredibly well positioned in several races, especially aboard You’reinthearmynow in the sixth race. Karlo Lopez is another rider to watch closely, as his mounts often find massive value in the claiming ranks. Jockeys who regularly ride at Turf Paradise understand the intricacies of the dirt track and know precisely when to urge their mounts forward to overcome the natural speed bias. On the turf course, riders breaking from the inside will look to aggressively protect their position early, knowing the statistics heavily favor them.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Juan Pablo Silva has a strong contingent entered today, particularly in the sixth race where his entrants look poised to completely control the pace. Handicappers consistently note that his runners are well prepared for the local conditions and rarely put in a poor effort. Justin R Evans also brings well meant horses to the track today, and his runners typically show very sharp early speed. When betting Turf Paradise, paying close attention to the trainer and jockey combinations is vital, as the top barns tend to heavily dominate the mid level claiming events week after week.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The most lucrative strategy for Turf Paradise is focusing intently on the multi race wagers like the Pick 4 and Pick 5. With favorites winning at a robust 38 percent clip, identifying the vulnerable favorites and singling the strong ones is the clearest path to profitability. A prime value play today is Law Abiding in the seventh race. Drawn comfortably and facing a field with questionable recent turf form, this runner could offer tremendous value in the win pool and as a potential single in the late Pick sequences. Additionally, utilizing the inside turf bias in your horizontal wagers by leaning heavily on posts one and two in route races will absolutely provide a long term edge over the betting public. Keeping tickets structured around these mathematical advantages is the hallmark of an expert handicapper.
