Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Race 1 – Claiming – 1M Dirt – Purse $13,000
Win: Grace Given (1) – 65% confidence
Place: Sky Echo (5) – 60% confidence
Show: Gospel Fabulous (4) – 55% confidence
Alternative: Patient Emilie (3) – 40% confidence
Race notes: Analysts repeatedly key on Grace Given (1) and Sky Echo (5) as the most reliable pace-and-trip combination, while Gospel Fabulous (4) projects as a late-pressing board horse with modest win upside. Patient Emilie (3) appears more as a fringe exotics piece than a primary win candidate.
Race 2 – Allowance – 5.5F Dirt – Purse $26,000
Win: Western Man (5) – 70% confidence
Place: How About Bob (3) – 55% confidence
Show: Mo Town Gold (2) – 50% confidence
Alternative: West Of Town (6) – 35% confidence
Race notes: The majority of analysts anchor Western Man (5) as a class-dropping speed/stalker with the most complete profile, while How About Bob (3) and Mo Town Gold (2) form a clear second tier that should drive exacta and trifecta structure. West Of Town (6) offers mild upside if the pace melts down more than expected.
Race 3 – Maiden Claiming – 1M Dirt – Purse $11,000
Win: Pontotoc (6) – 68% confidence
Place: Kaluki (2) – 55% confidence
Show: Dr J Y. G (4) – 45% confidence
Alternative: Code Eleven (5) – 40% confidence
Race notes: Analysts broadly favor Pontotoc (6) as the most likely improver stretching out, with Kaluki (2) and Dr J Y. G (4) filling strong underneath roles in a race dominated by lightly raced upside. Code Eleven (5) is respected enough to appear on multiple tickets but less often as a top choice.
Race 4 – Claiming – 5.5F Dirt – Purse $12,000
Win: Code Mandalore (5) – 72% confidence
Place: Tigersaurus Rex (2) – 60% confidence
Show: General Jimbo (4) – 45% confidence
Alternative: Stoops Tornado (3) – 40% confidence
Race notes: Code Mandalore (5) draws overwhelming support as a near single, while Tigersaurus Rex (2) is consistently projected to chase and hold a share. General Jimbo (4) and Stoops Tornado (3) are widely used as mid-price exotics stabilizers rather than primary win threats.
Race 5 – Allowance – 6F Dirt – Purse $26,000
Win: Fantasy Girl (2) – 67% confidence
Place: Giveitaspin (5) – 60% confidence
Show: Bank On Daisy (3) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Momacya (1) – 40% confidence
Race notes: Analysts show a strong lean to Fantasy Girl (2) as the key win candidate, with Giveitaspin (5) the most common exacta partner and Bank On Daisy (3) frequently leveraged in trifectas and superfectas. Momacya (1) retains back-class appeal but is used more defensively than aggressively on top.
Race 6 – Maiden Claiming – 6F Dirt – Purse $11,000
Win: Magical Max (5) – 64% confidence
Place: Chief Chitoz (7) – 55% confidence
Show: Njustlikethat (6) – 52% confidence
Alternative: Country Rider (4) – 45% confidence
Race notes: Confidence is distributed but tilts toward Magical Max (5) as the most dependable forward factor, with Chief Chitoz (7) and Njustlikethat (6) often paired in vertical spreads. Country Rider (4) shows up repeatedly as a value-enhancing underneath piece when constructing wider exotics.
Race 7 – Claiming – 1M Dirt – Purse $18,000
Win: Quarterly Report (1) – 58% confidence
Place: Shadowless (3) – 55% confidence
Show: Cherokee Sunrise (5) – 45% confidence
Alternative: I Am Grodd (7) – 40% confidence
Race notes: Analysts are split between Quarterly Report (1) and I Am Grodd (7) on top, but Quarterly Report (1) earns a slight consensus edge due to consistency and pace versatility. Shadowless (3) and Cherokee Sunrise (5) are preferred as mid-range prices for the second and third slots in deeper exotic structures.
Race 8 – Maiden Claiming – 1M Dirt – Purse $11,000
Win: Aroa (4) – 60% confidence
Place: Tizzlin (2) – 58% confidence
Show: Gray Girl Gone (5) – 55% confidence
Alternative: Holly Springs (8) – 35% confidence
Race notes: Aroa (4) and Tizzlin (2) are co-headliners on most analyst sheets, with subtle preference to Aroa (4) based on projected finish strength at the mile. Gray Girl Gone (5) profiles as the most logical board-hitter, while Holly Springs (8) shows up as a fringe longshot inclusion in wider spread tickets.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1 – Recommended Exotics
Analysts would likely frame Grace Given (1) and Sky Echo (5) as a two-horse win core, building exactas 1–5 and 5–1, with Gospel Fabulous (4) and Patient Emilie (3) filling the second and third slots. A practical trifecta structure is 1,5 over 1,4,5 over 1,3,4,5, which leans into the strongest consensus while still allowing Patient Emilie (3) to boost payouts if she sneaks into the number. More aggressive players could key Sky Echo (5) on top in a saver trifecta to exploit the few analysts who elevate her over Grace Given (1).
Race 2 – Recommended Exotics
With Western Man (5) holding a clear consensus edge, analysts would treat him as a primary key in exactas and trifectas, using 3,2,6 underneath in varying combinations. A straightforward exacta is 5 over 3,2,6, while a value-oriented reverse exacta 3,2 over 5 acknowledges the strength of How About Bob (3) and Mo Town Gold (2). Trifecta players might consider 5 over 3,2 over 1,3,2,6 to capture a late-running I Am What I Am (1) or West Of Town (6) collapse scenario.
Race 3 – Recommended Exotics
In this maiden claimer, analysts appear to gravitate toward a Pontotoc (6) and Kaluki (2) exacta box, reflecting their dual status as the most consistent top-three mentions. A conservative trifecta could be 6,2 over 6,2,4,5 over 6,2,4,5, which leverages Pontotoc (6) and Kaluki (2) as dual keys while acknowledging that Dr J Y. G (4) and Code Eleven (5) often populate the lower rungs of analyst tickets. Given the lightly raced nature of the field, small superfecta wheels with 6,2 on top and spreading modestly below are a reasonable approach for exotic-oriented bettors.
Race 4 – Recommended Exotics
Given the overwhelming backing for Code Mandalore (5), analysts would be inclined to key him heavily in exacta and trifecta structures, pairing most frequently with Tigersaurus Rex (2) and General Jimbo (4). A logical main exacta is 5 over 2,4,3, while a small reverse 2,4 over 5 acknowledges potential pace surprises. A core trifecta structure is 5 over 2,4 over 2,3,4, which still incorporates Stoops Tornado (3) as an underneath upset candidate without relying on him to win.
Race 5 – Recommended Exotics
Fantasy Girl (2) is consistently treated as the key win horse, so analysts are likely to recommend exactas 2 over 5,3,1 and select reverses with 5 and 3 on top to guard against a mild upset. Trifecta constructions such as 2 over 5,3,1 over 5,3,1,4 allow Giveitaspin (5), Bank On Daisy (3), Momacya (1), and Lady Beau (4) to fill out the underneath spots according to their consensus strength. This race also sets up well as a single in multi-race exotics if the bettor is comfortable leaning into the prevailing view on Fantasy Girl (2).
Race 6 – Recommended Exotics
Analysts see Magical Max (5), Chief Chitoz (7), and Njustlikethat (6) as the core trio, so exacta boxes among these three form the backbone of exotic strategy. A common analyst trifecta would be 5,7 over 5,7,6 over 5,7,6,4, keeping Country Rider (4) alive at the bottom as a value enhancer. More speculative tickets might key Magical Max (5) on top while spreading more widely in the third and fourth positions for trifectas and superfectas.
Race 7 – Recommended Exotics
Because consensus is relatively split between Quarterly Report (1) and I Am Grodd (7), analysts would likely propose an exacta and trifecta strategy that treats both as co-keys. Exactas 1,7 over 1,7,3,5 and reverses 3,5 over 1,7 take advantage of Shadowless (3) and Cherokee Sunrise (5) as consistent underneath players. Trifectas 1,7 over 1,7,3,5 over 1,7,3,5,6 allow Papa Funny (6) to sneak into the bottom slot while still respecting the dominant quartet.
Race 8 – Recommended Exotics
Analysts frame Aroa (4), Tizzlin (2), and Gray Girl Gone (5) as the central exotics axis, making an exacta box among the three a natural starting point. A more opinionated stance is 4,2 over 4,2,5 over 4,2,5,8,9, leveraging Holly Springs (8) and Magnolia Princess (9) only as distant underneath possibilities. Given the maiden nature of the event, modest superfecta spreads that keep 4,2,5 in all positions can capture chaotic outcomes without overspending.
Value Play Observations
Analysts’ consensus percentages suggest that Code Mandalore (5) in Race 4 and Western Man (5) in Race 2 will be heavily supported at the windows, potentially turning them into underlays relative to their true win probabilities if their odds compress below even-money. By contrast, horses like West Of Town (6) in Race 2 and Country Rider (4) in Race 6 appear undervalued in analyst rankings yet show enough presence on tickets to merit inclusion as overlays if their prices drift into the mid-to-high single digits.
In the allowance sprint of Race 5, the strong consensus on Fantasy Girl (2) implies that any morning line near 2–1 is roughly in line with the implied 60–65% analyst confidence, while Giveitaspin (5) and Bank On Daisy (3) may offer better value if they hover near 4–1 or higher. Race 7’s split opinion means that I Am Grodd (7) could be a useful value key if she goes off above Quarterly Report (1) despite similar or higher analyst enthusiasm.
The maiden events in Races 3, 6, and 8 often conceal overlays because the public tends to overbet obvious figures while underestimating incremental improvement angles. In Race 3, Kaluki (2) and Code Eleven (5) look like potential price horses that analysts respect underneath but do not overwhelmingly anoint on top, creating a sweet spot if their odds exceed the rough 25–30% win probabilities implicit in their consensus usage. Similar logic applies to Gray Girl Gone (5) in Race 8, who is a frequent board projection but could still offer attractive value if overshadowed by Aroa (4) and Tizzlin (2).
Overall Wagering Strategy
Strongest Consensus Races on the card include Race 4, where Code Mandalore (5) commands an estimated low-70s win confidence, and Race 2, where Western Man (5) draws the clear majority of top-slot support. These races are natural candidates for “single” positions in multi-race wagers and for heavier win bets, since multiple independent analyst views converge on the same outcome and the projected pace scenarios appear straightforward. Race 5, with Fantasy Girl (2) holding mid-60s consensus, also qualifies as a strong but slightly more vulnerable anchor, especially if the early fractions become hotter than expected.
Split-opinion spots emerge most clearly in Race 7 and, to a lesser extent, Race 3, where competing horses occupy the 40–50% confidence band and no single runner dominates the projections. In these races, analysts would emphasize horizontal spreads and vertical structures that do not lean too aggressively on a sole key horse, instead using two or even three contenders on equal footing in the win slot. The analytical tension between Quarterly Report (1) and I Am Grodd (7) in Race 7, for example, shifts focus from heavy win bets to value-driven exactas and trifectas where both can be used as co-anchors.
For multi-race sequences, the most efficient construction is to lean hard on the strongest consensus races while spreading in the less predictable legs. A practical Pick 3 or Pick 4 sequence might treat Code Mandalore (5) in Race 4 and Fantasy Girl (2) in Race 5 as “must use” singles, then expand coverage substantially in Races 3, 6, and 7, where maiden uncertainty and divided opinions raise volatility. If on-track pools show relatively balanced money in these spread legs, carryover potential increases because many tickets will be eliminated when mid-priced consensus horses upset weak favorites. In this framework, betting capital is concentrated where analysts agree and diversified where the form is inherently more unstable.
Exotic value is most likely to arise in the maiden and lower-level claiming races, particularly Races 3, 6, and 8, where lightly raced runners and modest class levels drive analytical variance. Here, analysts would favor superfecta and trifecta wheels that key the consensus top pair while fanning out in the lower positions, such as 6,2 over 6,2,4,5 over 6,2,4,5,others in Race 3 or 4,2 over 4,2,5 over a wider group in Race 8. Such structures aim to capture unpredictable fourth-place finishers without incurring prohibitive cost, capitalizing on the fact that public bettors often overlook these chaotic outcomes even when analyst patterns quietly flag them.
Environmental and track-related considerations should focus on how the surface is actually playing on the day: if early races reveal a pronounced inside or speed bias, then front-running or pace-pressing horses such as Western Man (5), Code Mandalore (5), and Fantasy Girl (2) gain additional appeal relative to their already-strong consensus rankings. Conversely, if off-the-pace types show a persistent advantage, the analyst landscape suggests reevaluating closer-oriented runners like Sky Echo (5) in Race 1 or late-running components in Races 3 and 8 as potential upgrades in vertical exotics. Weather, moisture content, and any observable bias shifts between the early and late races should inform dynamic adjustments to the otherwise static consensus view across the program.
From a strategic perspective, bettors should prioritize three key takeaways. First, use the highest-consensus races—namely Races 2, 4, and 5—as structural backbones in both horizontal and vertical wagers, reserving the largest positions for these more stable outcomes. Second, treat split-opinion races like Race 7 as opportunities to seek value rather than certainty, deploying co-key strategies that embrace the analytical divide rather than forcing a single “best” play. Third, approach the maiden and lower-level events with a mindset of controlled aggression in exotics, embracing wider spreads and deeper vertical tickets where analyst patterns point to clusters of logical contenders but not to a singular standout.
