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Tampa Bay Downs presents a nine-race card today with first post at 12:47 PM ET. The card features seven dirt races and two turf events, with distances ranging from 5 1/2 furlongs to one mile. Purses span from $20,500 to $32,500, anchored by a competitive $32,500 three-year-old turf claiming event in Race 5 and a $26,500 open claiming sprint at seven furlongs in Race 6. All nine races are at the claiming or starter optional claiming level, making this a bread-and-butter card that rewards form analysis and a keen eye for class moves.

The Scratch Watch has several important entries flagged. Angelas Party Girl (5) in Race 2 is listed as a veterinarian scratch. In Race 8, Padrino’s Gold (7) is flagged for a veterinarian scratch and St Bernadette (4) for a trainer scratch. In Race 9, Apple Shake Shake (2), Midway Vow (4), and Cocktail Kisses (9) are all on the scratch watch for various reasons. Additionally, Roscommon (4) in Race 5 and American Unity (6) in Race 6 are listed as Also-Eligible. Bettors should verify the final entry status before placing wagers.​

Samuel Marin, the dominant rider at this meet, has 81 winners and is on pace to shatter the track’s single-season record of 147 victories set by Antonio Gallardo eleven years ago. Marin’s 26.6% win rate is the best of any jockey at the meet with at least 40 mounts, and he holds a 28-win lead over second-place Samy Camacho in the standings. Marin has six mounts today across the card, and his presence in any race demands attention.​

Tampa Bay Downs is celebrating its 100th anniversary during the 2025-2026 meet, with Festival Day 46 and the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby scheduled for March 7. The High Rollers Handicapping Contest runs February 20-21.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Today’s weather in Tampa calls for mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with a high near 77-81 degrees Fahrenheit and a low around 61-63 degrees. Humidity sits at approximately 75%, and winds are light at around 8 mph. The chance of precipitation is virtually nonexistent at 2%, meaning no weather-related disruptions are expected.

Expect the main dirt track to be labeled FAST and the turf course to read FIRM. These are ideal racing conditions for Tampa Bay Downs in February. The light wind and dry conditions should produce true, consistent surfaces throughout the afternoon. Horses with established dirt and turf form should run to their figures without surface excuses. The mild humidity may marginally favor horses with stamina in the longer routes, but otherwise conditions are about as neutral as it gets for Florida winter racing.​

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Tampa Bay Downs is one of the fairer tracks in the country, but identifiable biases have emerged during the 2025-2026 meet that sharp handicappers can exploit.​

In dirt sprints, early speed has been the dominant running style, winning approximately 49% of races through the meet. In the most recent week of racing, early speed went 5-for-10, reclaiming the edge from stalkers. Posts 1-3 continue to hold a meaningful advantage in sprints, winning roughly 45% of the time. However, stalkers remain competitive and cannot be dismissed. The data clearly favors horses who can secure a forward position early, especially when drawn inside.

In dirt routes, early runners have won approximately 44% of races, with inside posts 1-3 winning at a 50% clip. Posts 4-6 are close behind at 40%, making outside posts a genuine disadvantage in two-turn dirt races. This creates a significant edge for horses with natural speed drawn inside in today’s Race 1 and Race 2 (both at one mile and 40 yards on dirt).

On the turf, the story is dramatically different. Closers have been dominant in turf routes, winning at a 51% clip over the course of the meet. Early speed has struggled badly in turf routes, winning under 20% of the time. This is the strongest playable bias on the card. In Race 5 and Race 9, both one-mile turf events, bettors should lean heavily toward runners with closing styles and discount front-running types. Additionally, stalkers surged in the most recent weeks, going 6-for-8 in week 12, and posts 1-3 went 6-for-8 in turf routes during that same period, suggesting inside draws with tactical speed or closing ability are the strongest profiles.

Race 1 — Claiming $10,000. 1 Mile 40 Yards Dirt. Purse $26,500. Fillies and Mares 4YO and Up.

Post Time: 12:47 PM ET

Pace Analysis

This shapes up as a contested pace scenario. Jassai (6) has shown a preference for being on or near the lead, while Crossati (4) also runs as a front-end type. Mia’s Angel (3) typically sits mid-pack and makes a move, and Sing Scat (2) stalks from just off the pace. With multiple runners wanting forward positions, there should be enough pressure up front to set up mid-pack runners and stalkers. Chacarera (5) and Ariana Valentina (1) could benefit if the pace gets hot.​

Key Contenders

Jassai (6) is the consensus top pick across multiple handicapping sources at a morning line of 2/1. She won her last start over this exact course and distance at Tampa, then followed with a runner-up effort. Samuel Marin, the meet’s leading rider, has the call. With a front-running style and the best jockey at the track, she has every right to be the favorite. Career earnings of $204,680 with a 13% win rate from 31 starts show she is reliable if not spectacular, but at this class level she towers over much of this field. Her 6-for-6 in-the-money rate in recent starts with Marin is notable.

Mia’s Angel (3) is the morning line second choice at 3/1. She has been remarkably consistent, finishing second in two of her last three starts at this course and distance. Trainer David VanWinkle shows an 8% win rate but a 54% in-the-money rate at the meet, suggesting he places horses to hit the board reliably. Wesley Ho rides, carrying a 17% win rate. Mia’s Angel profiles as a mid-pack runner who should sit a good trip behind the pace duel and pick up the pieces late.

Secondary Choices

Sing Scat (2) has the highest career earnings in the field at $438,791 and a solid 17% win rate from 59 starts. She won back-to-back at this level in her second and third starts back, but faded to sixth last time. She stalks from just off the pace with Israel O. Rodriguez aboard. At 4/1 on the morning line, she offers some value if she bounces back to her recent winning form.​

Crossati (4) gets a significant weight break at 112 pounds with apprentice Ronaldo Rodriguez. She has a 24% career win rate and won two starts back. The lighter weight could help her conserve energy on the front end. At 6/1, she is worth including in exotics.​

Longshots

Chacarera (5) at 10/1 has won 3 of 11 career starts (27% win rate) and arrives off two wins in her previous three starts. She gets a weight break at 109 pounds with apprentice Noel Herman. The Keeneland Tip Sheet lists her as the top pick, citing her as a value play at double-digit odds. If the pace collapses, she could rally from off the pace at a big number.

Betting Strategy

Jassai (6) is the deserving favorite and should be used on top of exactas and trifectas. The value play is Chacarera (5) at 10/1, who has been winning at a higher clip than her odds suggest. Exacta box 5-6, with trifecta keys of 6 over 2, 3, 5 for the place and show slots.

Selections

Win: Jassai (6)
Place: Mia’s Angel (3)
Show: Sing Scat (2)

Race 2 — Starter Optional Claiming $12,500. 1 Mile 40 Yards Dirt. Purse $28,000. Fillies and Mares 4YO and Up.

Post Time: 1:17 PM ET

NOTE: Angelas Party Girl (5) is flagged as a veterinarian scratch. Verify before wagering.

Pace Analysis

This race should feature a moderate pace. Three Run Bolt (1) showed early speed in prior efforts and can gun from the rail. Too Hot to Stop (2) won well recently and can press. Castagna (3) tends to stalk and pounce. With no dominant speed horse, the pace should be honest but not suicidal, setting up a stalker or mid-pack closer.​

Key Contenders

Castagna (3) is the clear top choice here, listed at 2/1 on the morning line. She won impressively over this course and distance last out on February 5, beating Mia’s Angel and Mi Amore. Her previous form at Tampa includes multiple wins and placings at route distances. Israel O. Rodriguez rides for trainer Alejandro Olais Mendieta. The Formscan notes call her “the one to beat after an impressive win over C&D last time out.” She profiles as a stalker who can sit just off the pace and kick away in the stretch.

Sweet Nola (6) is listed at 5/2 and gets the nod from both the Keeneland Tip Sheet and UltimateCapper as their top choice. She has been consistent throughout the meet, finishing second to Castagna last out and winning the race before that. Samy Camacho, second in the jockey standings, has the mount. Her Rated 93 figure is the highest in the field, suggesting she has the raw ability to win this. Trainer Juan Arriagada’s barn has been active and competitive.

Secondary Choices

Can Do (4) at 8/1 has ability but is lightly raced with only limited form to evaluate. Samuel Marin picks up the mount, which alone warrants respect given his dominance at the meet. Trainer Gregory D. Sacco is a capable East Coast conditioner.​

Blue Fashion (7) at 8/1 gets Daniel Centeno, who boasts an 18% win rate at Tampa and strong 39% in-the-money numbers. The Keeneland sheet lists her as a wild card, and she could outrun her odds in a race where the top two are likely to attract most of the betting action.

Longshots

Three Run Bolt (1) at 10/1 draws the rail, which is advantageous in dirt routes at Tampa. She has shown some early speed in her recent starts and could benefit from a ground-saving trip. Martina Rojas rides for trainer Jose Antonio Vargas.​

Betting Strategy

Castagna (3) and Sweet Nola (6) look like the clear top two. An exacta box of 3-6 is the straightforward play. Add Can Do (4) and Blue Fashion (7) underneath in trifectas for value: key 3 and 6 over 4, 7 for third.

Selections

Win: Castagna (3)
Place: Sweet Nola (6)
Show: Can Do (4)

Race 3 — Claiming $5,000. 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $20,500. 4YO and Up, Non-winners Since August 18.

Post Time: 1:47 PM ET

Pace Analysis

This is a sprint for horses that have not won since mid-August, meaning the quality is modest. Mr. Squeaky Wheels (1) can show speed from the rail. Happy Instead (7) has been competitive and should sit mid-pack. Megan’s Honor (8) is the class of the field but draws the outside post in an eight-horse sprint. With multiple speed types engaged, early pace should be honest. The inside speed bias in sprints favors posts 1-3.

Key Contenders

Megan’s Honor (8) is the Keeneland Tip Sheet’s Best Bet on the entire card for this race, listed at 2/1 on the morning line. He is a 9-year-old gelding with Israel O. Rodriguez aboard for trainer Scott Becker. Career earnings and experience at this level make him the standout. Multiple handicapping sources favor him as the top pick. The outside draw in an 8-horse sprint is a mild concern given the inside speed bias, but his class edge may overcome the post.

Mr. Squeaky Wheels (1) at the morning line draws the rail, which is a significant advantage in Tampa dirt sprints where posts 1-3 have been winning at a 45% rate. Samuel Marin has the call for trainer Mario Roberto Lopez. Given the bias data, he is a serious contender strictly on positional advantage.

Secondary Choices

Happy Instead (7) at 5/2 on the Keeneland sheet gets a significant weight break at only 112 pounds with apprentice Marvin Fernandez. Trainer Juan Arriagada has been active at the meet. He profiles as a mid-pack type who could rally if the early pace is contested.​

Al Ameeq (2) at 5/2 draws post 2, another advantageous inside spot. Samy Camacho rides for Robert T. Paterno. He has shown some recent form and benefits from the inside post bias.​

Longshots

Limit Up (5) at 8/1 gets Sonny Leon aboard for trainer Jeffrey S. Englehart. He has some back class but has been off form. At a price, he is worth including underneath in exotics.​

Betting Strategy

Megan’s Honor (8) is the consensus pick, but the rail draw of Mr. Squeaky Wheels (1) with Marin aboard cannot be ignored given the strong inside speed bias. An exacta box of 1-8 is the core play. In trifectas, use 1, 7, 8 in a box.

Selections

Win: Megan’s Honor (8)
Place: Mr. Squeaky Wheels (1)
Show: Happy Instead (7)

Race 4 — Claiming $5,000. 6 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $21,000. Fillies and Mares 4YO and Up, Non-winners of Two Since August 18.

Post Time: 2:17 PM ET

Pace Analysis

This is a competitive sprint for lower-level fillies and mares. Opposite the Crowd (5) has shown tactical speed in her recent outings. Lady in Heels (3) can press the pace. Olga (1) draws the rail and can be forwardly placed. This sets up for a moderate pace with multiple runners in contention early. The inside speed bias gives a slight edge to Olga (1) from the rail.​

Key Contenders

Opposite the Crowd (5) is the heavy 4/5 morning line favorite on the Keeneland Tip Sheet and also the top pick from UltimateCapper. Samuel Marin rides for trainer Victor Barboza Jr. At those short odds, she is being treated as a standout in a $5,000 claiming field, which suggests she has a clear class advantage. Marin’s dominant riding stats give added confidence in short-priced horses.

Lady in Heels (3) at 5/1 is the Racing Dudes top pick. Jose A. Batista rides for Gerald S. Bennett. She has been competitive at this level and could benefit from a forward trip in the inside posts. Bennett as a trainer has placed runners effectively at the meet.

Secondary Choices

Olga (1) at 6/1 on the Keeneland sheet draws the rail, which is valuable in 6-furlong sprints. Manny Jimenez rides for Ron G. Potts. The track bias gives her a real shot to outrun her odds from the inside.​

Slew Crown (6) at 15/1 is listed as the show pick by the Keeneland sheet. Ricardo Feliciano rides for Anthony F. Rini. At this price, she is a trifecta inclusion at minimum.​

Longshots

Queen of Chill (2) at 30/1 gets the weight break at 110 pounds with apprentice Noel Herman. She is a deep longshot, but in a $5,000 claimer, stranger things have happened. Use only in superfectas.​

Betting Strategy

Opposite the Crowd (5) is the clear favorite but at 4/5 offers no standalone value. The play is to key her on top of exactas with Olga (1), Lady in Heels (3), and Slew Crown (6) underneath. Trifecta: 5 with 1, 3, 6 with 1, 3, 6.

Selections

Win: Opposite the Crowd (5)
Place: Lady in Heels (3)
Show: Olga (1)

Race 5 — Claiming $20,000. 1 Mile Turf. Purse $32,500. Three Year Olds. (Rail at 30 feet.)

Post Time: 2:47 PM ET

NOTE: Roscommon (4) is listed as Also-Eligible. Verify entry status before wagering. If the race comes off the turf, the dynamics change completely.

Pace Analysis

This is the highest-purse race on the card and features lightly raced three-year-olds on the turf, making it one of the most intriguing contests. Jes See Me (5) has the fastest early speed style and will likely gun from the gate. High Yield Hunk (2) also shows early pace. Wise Words (1) and Magic Mikey (7) sit mid-pack. The critical track bias note: closers have been winning 51% of turf routes this meet, while early speed wins under 20%. This strongly favors off-the-pace types.

Key Contenders

Jes See Me (5) is the consensus morning line favorite at 9/5, favored by both the Keeneland Tip Sheet and Racing Dudes. Antonio A. Gallardo rides for trainer Juan Arriagada. He has the highest speed figures in the field and career earnings of $116,080 from just six starts. His front-running style is a concern given the strong closer bias on the Tampa turf, but his raw talent may overcome the bias at this relatively modest claiming level for young horses.

Wise Words (1) at 9/2 won his last start at one mile on the turf at Tampa and ran third the time before. Samuel Marin rides, which is always an edge. He draws the rail, and the data shows posts 1-3 have been strong in turf routes recently. His mid-pack, lead style gives him the tactical versatility to adapt to the pace flow. The combination of Marin, inside draw, and recent turf form makes him dangerous.

Secondary Choices

High Yield Hunk (2) at 4/1 gets the nod from UltimateCapper and shows up as a wild card on the Keeneland sheet. Jesus Lopez Castanon rides for M. Anthony Ferraro. He shows early speed, which is normally a negative on the Tampa turf, but he drew post 2 (an advantageous inside spot) and has been competitive in his recent starts. He is worth including for the place and show spots.

Roscommon (4) at 4/1, if he draws in from Also-Eligible, is a live runner. Samy Camacho rides for Derek S. Ryan, who sports a 17% win rate. He won at one mile on the turf here last out and profiles as a closer, which is the ideal style for this course. A 50% win rate from limited starts (2-for-4) is encouraging.​

Magic Mikey (7) at 6/1 won at one mile on the turf at Tampa two starts back. Charlie Marquez rides with a 22% win rate. He sits mid-pack and can close, fitting the bias perfectly. His recent eighth-place finish is a concern, but he showed enough talent in his win to warrant respect.​

Longshots

Missus Seki (8) at 12/1 won at 1 1/16 miles on the turf at Tampa last out at odds of 33/1. Trainer S. Matthew Kintz has a strong 33% win rate at the meet. She profiles as a mid-pack closer and draws the outside but showed she can handle this turf course. At her odds, she is an excellent exotic play and was the horse that blew up the Pick 5 sequence earlier in the meet.

Duck Duck Goose (3) at 12/1 ships in from the mid-Atlantic for trainer Kelly J. Breen, who has a 10% win rate at Tampa. Sonny Leon rides. He won at one mile on the dirt at Delaware and profiles as a deep closer, which fits the turf bias. First time on turf is a question mark, but Breen is a sharp trainer who typically has a reason for the move.​

Betting Strategy

This is the most playable race on the card for exotic bets. The turf closer bias makes Jes See Me (5) vulnerable despite being the favorite. Wise Words (1) with Marin from the rail is the value play on top. Use Jes See Me (5), Wise Words (1), and Roscommon (4) if he draws in, or Magic Mikey (7), as the A group. Include Missus Seki (8) and High Yield Hunk (2) in the B group for trifectas and superfectas.

Selections

Win: Jes See Me (5)
Place: Wise Words (1)
Show: Magic Mikey (7)

Race 6 — Claiming $10,000. 7 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $26,500. 4YO and Up. (Florida Breds Preferred.)

Post Time: 3:17 PM ET

NOTE: American Unity (6) is listed as Also-Eligible. Verify entry status before wagering.

Pace Analysis

Seven furlongs on dirt is a unique distance that rewards horses with tactical speed who can sustain it through a one-turn route. Eightysixchevy (1) has shown some early speed. Just Relax (5) tends to stalk. Coalminer’s Kitten (2) runs mid-pack and makes a sustained move. Smart Striker (4) has deep closing ability. This should set up a moderate pace that favors horses with mid-pack positioning.​

Key Contenders

Coalminer’s Kitten (2) is the Keeneland Tip Sheet’s Best Bet for this race at 2/1 on the morning line. He won his last start at seven furlongs on the dirt at Tampa, beating a field of 12. Career stats of 9 wins from 27 starts (33% win rate) and earnings of $204,590 make him the class of the field. Sonny Leon rides for trainer Michael V. Simone. He profiles as a mid-pack leader who can adapt to the pace, which is the ideal style for 7-furlong dirt races at Tampa.

Smart Striker (4) at 3/1 is the Racing Dudes top selection. Samy Camacho rides for Gerald S. Bennett. His deep-closing style is listed as “Fastest Deep,” and while the Tampa dirt bias has favored early runners, at seven furlongs there is more time for closers to make up ground. He has career earnings of $373,770, the highest in the field, suggesting legitimate class.

Secondary Choices

Just Relax (5) at 5/2 has Samuel Marin aboard for Michael V. Simone (same barn as Coalminer’s Kitten). He won his second start back at 6 1/2 furlongs but faded to ninth last out at seven furlongs. The Marin factor keeps him relevant, but the last race was concerning. He profiles as a stalker who should sit a ground-saving trip.

American Unity (6) at 9/2, if he draws in from Also-Eligible, brings the highest career earnings in the field at $446,764 with a 30% win rate from 44 starts and an impressive 68% in-the-money rate. Ricardo Feliciano rides. His “Fast Deep” style could work well if the pace heats up. He is the UltimateCapper’s top pick.

Longshots

Gowokegobroke (3) at 10/1 gets Jesus Lopez Castanon, who has a 22% win rate from limited starts at the meet. He has been hitting the board consistently (45% career in-the-money) but struggles to win (14% career win rate). At his odds, he is a useful exotics inclusion for the underneath spots.​

Betting Strategy

Coalminer’s Kitten (2) deserves favoritism and should be used as the key horse. Exacta: 2 over 4, 5, 6. Trifecta: 2 with 4, 5, 6 with 3, 4, 5, 6.

Selections

Win: Coalminer’s Kitten (2)
Place: Smart Striker (4)
Show: Just Relax (5)

Race 7 — Claiming $8,000. 6 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $24,000. 4YO and Up.

Post Time: 3:50 PM ET

Pace Analysis

This is a hotly contested sprint with multiple speed types. Riding a Dream (6) is the fastest early runner in the field and has won two straight, both on the front end. Morning Cup (7) also wants the lead. Keigs (4) has fast early speed. Swen (8) has shown early ability. This many speed types engaged could lead to a pace meltdown, potentially setting up a closer or stalker.​

Key Contenders

Riding a Dream (6) is the morning line favorite at even money on the Keeneland sheet and 6/5 with Racing Dudes. Samy Camacho rides for trainer Juan Arriagada. He has won two straight, including a victory at six furlongs last out. His 41% career win rate from 17 starts (7 wins) is outstanding, and he profiles as the fastest leader in the race. The concern is the number of speed horses in here who could pressure him early, but he has shown he can clear the field and sustain his speed. At short odds, he lacks value but remains the most likely winner.

Paynted Warrior (3) at 7/2 won two starts back at six furlongs and ran fourth last time. Ricardo Feliciano rides for his father Benny R. Feliciano, a family operation that wins at a 16% clip. He profiles as a mid-pack leader who could benefit if the early pace collapses from the speed duel up front.

Secondary Choices

Elusive d’Oro (5) at 6/1 won two starts back at six furlongs and ran second in his last outing. Sonny Leon rides for Michael V. Simone. He is a fast stalker who sits just behind the speed and picks up the pieces. If Riding a Dream (6) and the other speed types burn each other out, Elusive d’Oro could be perfectly positioned to run them all down.

Morning Cup (7) at 9/2 has Samuel Marin aboard for Michael V. Simone. His career earnings of $327,001 are the highest in the field. He shows fast early speed and could press the favorite from the start. With Marin’s 21% win rate at the meet, he is always a factor regardless of running style.​

Longshots

Keigs (4) at 10/1 has a remarkable 37% career win rate (7-for-19) and a 63% in-the-money rate. He ships in off two straight wins at another track. Gabriel Maldonado rides for M. Anthony Ferraro. His fast early speed could make him the rabbit that burns out, but if he clears, he has the talent to steal this at a big number.

Swen (8) at 15/1 won last out at six furlongs, beating a field of 12, then ran third at seven furlongs. Sara Hess rides for Dennis Ward. He shows some early speed and at his price is worth a superfecta inclusion.​

Betting Strategy

The pace dynamics make this race potentially volatile. Riding a Dream (6) is the most likely winner but at even money, the value angle is to use the closers and stalkers underneath. Exacta key: 6 over 3, 4, 5. If looking for an upset, key Elusive d’Oro (5) and Paynted Warrior (3) on top of exactas with Riding a Dream (6) underneath for a bigger payoff.

Selections

Win: Riding a Dream (6)
Place: Paynted Warrior (3)
Show: Elusive d’Oro (5)

Race 8 — Claiming $8,000. 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $20,500. Fillies and Mares 4YO and Up, Never Won Three Races.

Post Time: 4:20 PM ET

NOTE: Padrino’s Gold (7) is flagged for a veterinarian scratch and St Bernadette (4) for a trainer scratch. Verify the final field before wagering. This is a full 10-horse field (before scratches), which means more competitive dynamics and potentially higher exotic payoffs.

Pace Analysis

In a large field at 6 1/2 furlongs, pace analysis becomes critical. La Tremenda (3) can show some early speed from an inside post. She Stopped Short (8) has shown some pace in her recent starts. Mean to Me (9) and Taprixie (2) tend to sit off the pace. With a large field, the pace should be honest, and traffic trouble is a risk for closers in a 10-horse sprint.​

Key Contenders

Taprixie (2) is the consensus top pick at 3/1, favored by both the Keeneland Tip Sheet and Racing Dudes. Ronaldo Rodriguez rides for trainer Teresa M. Pompay. She draws post 2, an advantageous inside spot in a large-field sprint at Tampa. Her stalking style allows her to avoid the early traffic while maintaining a forward position.

La Tremenda (3) at 4/1 gets Samuel Marin aboard for trainer Victor Barboza Jr. The Marin factor alone makes her a contender, and she draws post 3, another favorable inside position. She should be forwardly placed early and benefit from the inside speed bias.​

Secondary Choices

Mean to Me (9) at 6/1 on the Keeneland sheet gets Wesley Ho aboard for trainer Vega Juan Bacallao. She draws wide in post 9, which is a disadvantage in sprints, but her closing style could work if the pace is fast. Ho has been riding at a 17% win rate at the meet.​

Heavens Express (6) at 6/1 is the Keeneland wild card. Kleiner A. Mejias rides for trainer Enrique Hernandez. She has shown some consistency at this level and is worth including in trifectas.​

Longshots

Go Go Star (1) at the morning line draws the rail in a full field, getting the inside speed bias advantage. She receives a significant weight break at 108 pounds with apprentice Noel Herman. Trainer Coleen M. Ashmore could have her ready for a big run at a price. Use in superfectas from the rail.​

Special Affair (5) at longer odds also gets a weight break at 108 pounds with Marvin Fernandez. She is a deep-price inclusion for exotics only.​

Betting Strategy

Taprixie (2) and La Tremenda (3) are the logical top two from inside posts. In a 10-horse field (assuming scratches reduce it to 8), the exotic payoffs could be generous. Exacta box 2-3, with trifecta: 2, 3 with 2, 3, 9 with 1, 6, 9.

Selections

Win: Taprixie (2)
Place: La Tremenda (3)
Show: Mean to Me (9)

Race 9 — Claiming $16,000. 1 Mile Turf. Purse $23,800. Fillies and Mares 4YO and Up, Never Won Two Races. (Rail at 30 feet.)

Post Time: 4:50 PM ET

NOTE: Multiple horses are on the scratch watch: Apple Shake Shake (2), Midway Vow (4), and Cocktail Kisses (9). Verify the final field before wagering. This is a 14-horse field (before scratches), making it the largest field of the day and a prime exotic wagering opportunity.

Pace Analysis

In a massive field at one mile on the turf, the critical bias is that closers have won 51% of turf routes this meet while early speed has won under 20%. Promaja (6), Skipwineyesterday (12), and Temple City Taboo (5) show some early pace intentions. With 14 entered (even after potential scratches, this will be a large field), the pace should be honest to fast, setting up closers perfectly.​

Key Contenders

Jersey Joyce (11) is the Keeneland Tip Sheet’s Best Bet for this race at 9/2. Sonny Leon rides for trainer Patrick B. McBurney. She is a 7-year-old mare with substantial experience, carrying the top weight of 123 pounds. In a race for horses that have never won two, her depth of form and consistency give her an edge. Leon’s 23% win rate at the meet helps.​

Cocktail Kisses (9) at 2/1 is the Racing Dudes top pick and the Keeneland place pick. Samuel Marin rides for trainer S. Matthew Kintz, who boasts a strong 33% win rate at the meet. She is listed on the scratch watch, however, so her participation is uncertain. If she runs, the Marin-Kintz combination is formidable, and her 2/1 odds reflect the combination of jockey talent and trainer form. The off-turf concern (listed as an X scratch for off-turf) suggests connections want the turf course, which appears certain today given the weather forecast.

Secondary Choices

Promaja (6) at 10/1 on the Keeneland sheet gets Jesus Lopez Castanon, who has a 17% win rate at Tampa. Trainer Maria Bowersock also has starts at the meet. She carries the top weight of 123 pounds, suggesting the conditions maker views her as one of the strongest entrants. She could stalk the pace and be in a good position turning for home.​

Nashville Slew (1) at 8/1 is the Keeneland wild card. She draws the rail, which has been advantageous in recent turf routes (posts 1-3 went 6-for-8 in the most recent week). Pablo Morales rides for trainer Roger Laurin. The inside draw combined with the recent turf bias makes her an intriguing play.

Skipwineyesterday (12) at a likely mid-range price gets Alonso Quinonez aboard for trainer Tim P. Padilla, who has a 19% win rate at the meet. From a wide draw, she will need to overcome the outside post, but if she shows tactical speed to get a good position, she has a chance.​

Longshots

Sliver of Sunshine (7) at 10/1 gets Sonny Leon (if he is not committed to Jersey Joyce, check jockey assignments). Trainer Kathleen A. Demasi has been active. She has shown some turf form and could rally late in a large field.​

She’s Gone Rogue (8) at longer odds gets Ubardo Casique for Moises R. Yanez. In a 14-horse field for never-won-two runners, there is always the chance for a bomber at a turf mile. Use in superfectas.​

Betting Strategy

This is the prime exotic race of the day. A 14-horse field (even with scratches, likely 10-12 runners) on the turf at a mile for fillies and mares who have never won two races is the definition of a wide-open betting opportunity. The turf closer bias is paramount here. Key Jersey Joyce (11) and Cocktail Kisses (9) if she runs on top, spreading to Promaja (6), Nashville Slew (1), and Sliver of Sunshine (7) in the exotics underneath.

Trifecta: 9, 11 with 1, 6, 9, 11 with 1, 5, 6, 7, 12.

Selections

Win: Jersey Joyce (11)
Place: Cocktail Kisses (9)
Show: Promaja (6)

Jockey Notes and Insights

Samuel Marin is the story of the Tampa Bay Downs meet. The 24-year-old Venezuelan is on pace to break the track’s all-time single-season win record of 147. Through the midpoint of the meet, he has 81 winners, a 26.6% win rate (the highest of any jockey with 40+ mounts), and holds a 28-win lead over Samy Camacho. He has demonstrated an ability to win at all distances and on both surfaces, but he is particularly effective at getting to the rail and saving ground in turf races. Today he has mounts in Races 1 (Jassai), 2 (Can Do), 3 (Mr. Squeaky Wheels), 4 (Opposite the Crowd), 5 (Wise Words), 6 (Just Relax), 7 (Morning Cup), and 8 (La Tremenda). Any time Marin is aboard a horse with legitimate contention, he should be taken seriously.​

Samy Camacho is the meet’s second-leading rider with a solid 16% win rate and 50% in-the-money rate from 159 mounts. He is reliable in claiming races and rides today in Races 3 (Al Ameeq), 5 (Roscommon), 6 (Smart Striker), and 7 (Riding a Dream). His experience at Tampa gives him a tactical edge in route races where pace judgment matters.

Sonny Leon has a lower 8% win rate at the meet from 108 mounts but a 34% in-the-money rate. He picks up quality mounts in Races 5 (Duck Duck Goose), 6 (Coalminer’s Kitten), 7 (Elusive d’Oro), and 9 (Jersey Joyce/Sliver of Sunshine). He is best deployed in exacta and trifecta underneath spots.​

Israel O. Rodriguez has been competitive with an 11% win rate from 28 mounts. He has key rides in Race 1 (Sing Scat), Race 2 (Castagna), and Race 3 (Megan’s Honor). His strongest mount today appears to be Castagna in Race 2 and Megan’s Honor in Race 3.​

Alonso Quinonez has a 14% win rate from 49 mounts and rides in Races 6 (Eightysixchevy), 7 (Dr. Perry), 8 (She Stopped Short), and 9 (Skipwineyesterday). He is a steady rider who hits the board consistently.​

Apprentice riders Noel Herman (Races 1, 4), Ronaldo Rodriguez (Races 1, 8), and Marvin Fernandez (Races 3, 8) all provide significant weight allowances. In claiming races at this level, a 5-7 pound weight break can be meaningful, especially in sprints. Watch for Herman on Chacarera (5) in Race 1 at 10/1 and Rodriguez on Taprixie (2) in Race 8.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Michael V. Simone has two strong entries today: Coalminer’s Kitten (2) in Race 6 (the Best Bet on the Keeneland sheet) and Elusive d’Oro (5) in Race 7. He also sends out Just Relax (5) in Race 6. Simone has a 14% win rate and 50% in-the-money rate from 70 starts at the meet. When he and Marin combine, pay close attention.

Juan Arriagada has three entries today: Happy Instead (7) in Race 3, Riding a Dream (6) in Race 7, and Sweet Nola (6) in Race 2. His barn has been active throughout the meet, and Riding a Dream’s two-straight wins suggest the barn is in form. The 6/5 morning line on Riding a Dream reflects the market’s confidence in this outfit.

Gerald S. Bennett sends out Lady in Heels (3) in Race 4 and Smart Striker (4) in Race 6. He has a 13% win rate from 30 starts at the meet. Smart Striker’s $373,770 in career earnings is by far the most in Race 6’s field, suggesting Bennett has placed this horse where he can win.​

S. Matthew Kintz has a notable 33% win rate from 15 starts at the meet, making him one of the most efficient trainers at Tampa. He trains Missus Seki (8) in Race 5 and Cocktail Kisses (9) in Race 9. Both horses have scored at prices this meet, and Kintz’s ability to have them ready is well-documented.​

Scott Becker trains Megan’s Honor (8) in Race 3, the Keeneland Best Bet. Becker is a veteran Florida trainer who is effective with older claimers. The 2/1 morning line reflects the horse’s class edge in a field of non-winners since August.​

Derek S. Ryan trains Roscommon (4) in Race 5, listed as Also-Eligible. Ryan has a 17% win rate from 35 starts at the meet. If Roscommon draws into the field, the combination of Ryan, Camacho, and a turf-closing style makes him one of the more dangerous runners in the race.​

Tim P. Padilla has a 19% win rate from 26 starts and trains Eightysixchevy (1) in Race 6 and Skipwineyesterday (12) in Race 9. He has been active at the meet and worth noting when his horses show up at a price.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The card offers three designated Best Bets on the Keeneland Tip Sheet: Megan’s Honor (8) in Race 3, Coalminer’s Kitten (2) in Race 6, and Jersey Joyce (11) in Race 9. These represent the strongest plays of the day from the sheet that historically hits the board 68% of the time with its Best Bets at Tampa.​

The turf races (5 and 9) are the most fertile ground for exotic payoffs. The dominant closer bias on the Tampa turf means favorites with early speed can be beaten at relatively short odds, creating overlays on stalkers and closers. Race 9 with its 14-horse field is particularly ripe for Pick 3, trifecta, and superfecta value.

The late Pick 5 typically begins with Race 5 at Tampa. Today’s sequence (Races 5-9) includes two turf routes (5 and 9) and three dirt events (6, 7, 8). A suggested Pick 5 structure:

Race 5 (leg 1): Jes See Me (5), Wise Words (1), Roscommon (4) or Magic Mikey (7)
Race 6 (leg 2): Coalminer’s Kitten (2) — single or near-single as the Best Bet
Race 7 (leg 3): Riding a Dream (6), Paynted Warrior (3)
Race 8 (leg 4): Taprixie (2), La Tremenda (3), Mean to Me (9)
Race 9 (leg 5): Jersey Joyce (11), Cocktail Kisses (9), Promaja (6)

This structure uses Coalminer’s Kitten as a single in Race 6 to reduce cost while spreading in the more volatile turf events and the large-field Race 8. The total cost depends on exact combinations, but a 50-cent Pick 5 at this ticket structure runs approximately $27-$54 depending on how many horses are used in each leg.

For the daily double linking Races 1 and 2, Jassai (6) over Castagna (3) and Sweet Nola (6) is the straightforward play. At 2/1 and 2/1 odds respectively, the double will not pay enormous, but the combination is the most reliable on the card.

The single best value play on the card is Chacarera (5) in Race 1 at 10/1. She has a 27% career win rate and arrives off two wins in three starts, yet the morning line lists her at double-digit odds. The Keeneland Tip Sheet makes her the top win pick. At 10/1, she offers genuine win-bet value and is the kind of horse who can anchor an early Pick 3 or daily double at a generous price.

The second value play is Missus Seki (8) in Race 5 at 12/1. She won at 33/1 last out on the Tampa turf for high-percentage trainer Kintz. Her closing style fits the dominant turf bias perfectly, and at her odds she could blow up trifectas and superfectas.

Finally, bettors should monitor the scratch watch closely, especially in Race 9 where Cocktail Kisses (9), Apple Shake Shake (2), and Midway Vow (4) are all flagged. Scratches from a 14-horse field can dramatically change the dynamics and odds, creating last-minute value opportunities for sharp bettors who are paying attention.