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This evening offers a fantastic ten race card under the lights, featuring a pair of high quality Allowance Optional Claiming events in Race 3 and Race 9, alongside a lucrative Maiden Special Weight in Race 8. The winter meet is in full swing, and fields are packed with competitive runners looking to make their mark on the synthetic Tapeta surface. Handicappers will need to navigate full fields and complex class drops, especially in the maiden and claiming ranks.
Weather and Track Conditions
Today’s daily forecast for Florence is cloudy with a high of 66°F, a low of 49°F, a 25% chance of rain, and winds from the southwest at 14 mph.
The synthetic Tapeta surface is renowned for its excellent drainage and consistency. Given the cloudy conditions and mild temperatures, the track will play fast and fair throughout the evening.
Track and Post Position Bias
The Tapeta surface at Turfway Park generally plays very fairly, though it does reliably reward horses with tactical speed or the ability to stalk just off the pace. Deep closers can win, but they require a swift pace meltdown to get there in time. In sprint distances such as five and a half and six furlongs, outside posts can be advantageous as they allow riders to avoid kickback and cleanly drop into a stalking position. In route races at a mile or longer, saving ground becomes paramount, and horses drawn far outside can lose significant ground on the sweeping turns unless they possess the early foot to clear the field.
1st Race – Maiden Claiming
Post Time
05:55 PM
Pace Analysis
The pace in this six furlong sprint should be honest, with High End and Fire Agate likely to establish early position. Blazen Eyes has shown flashes of early foot in the past and might push the tempo from the inside.
Key Contenders
High End drops into the claiming ranks for trainer Miguel Clement and gets the services of top local rider Luan Machado. This filly has been facing much tougher maiden special weight company and should appreciate the class relief today. Fire Agate is another strong contender for the Michael Maker barn, bringing consistent speed figures and a favorable outside draw that should keep her out of trouble.
Secondary Choices
Lyric Street has hit the board in several recent starts and offers a steady, late running presence. She might not win often, but she reliably passes tired horses in the lane. Dad’s Cara enters off a recent veterinary scratch but has been training steadily and could improve in this spot.
Longshots
Evalina has struggled in her recent outings but gets a rider change to Kevin Jimenez. If the pace completely falls apart, she could clunk up for a minor share at a big price.
Betting Strategy
Focus on High End and Fire Agate in multi race wagers. An exacta box with these two is the primary play, while using Lyric Street underneath in trifectas.
Selections
Win: High End (10) – 40% confidence
Place: Fire Agate (13) – 30% confidence
Show: Lyric Street (1) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Dad’s Cara (2) – 15% confidence
2nd Race – Claiming
Post Time
06:25 PM
Pace Analysis
This five and a half furlong dash features an abundance of early speed. Lookatmybuckle and Inflammabelle are likely to lock horns early, ensuring a swift and contested opening quarter mile.
Key Contenders
Frankel Baby returns for Brittany Vanden Berg after a string of solid efforts. Drawing the inside post means Christopher Emigh will need to secure position early, but her closing kick is perfectly suited for this pace scenario. Lookatmybuckle possesses the best early speed in the field and could prove tough to catch if she clears the field without expanding too much energy.
Secondary Choices
Fanciful has been a consistent performer for Kathy Jarvis and adds value as a stalker who can pick up the pieces. Kanazawa has tactical speed and will benefit from Edgar Morales guiding her from an outside post, avoiding the inside speed duel.
Longshots
All About Alice might fly under the radar for Ismael Bahena. She has previously shown an affinity for synthetic tracks and could spice up the exotics if she fires her best shot.
Betting Strategy
Lean on Frankel Baby as a single in the early Pick 5, banking on the pace meltdown. Play exactas using Frankel Baby on top of Lookatmybuckle and Kanazawa.
Selections
Win: Frankel Baby (1) – 35% confidence
Place: Lookatmybuckle (5) – 25% confidence
Show: Kanazawa (11) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Fanciful (6) – 20% confidence
3rd Race – Allowance Optional Claiming
Post Time
06:55 PM
Pace Analysis
Pace should be solid but manageable. Runaway Again likes to be forwardly placed, while Green Light can sit just off his flank. There is enough speed to keep the frontrunners honest without setting up a total collapse.
Key Contenders
Churchtown is a classy gelding from the Brendan Walsh barn who has proven himself against top tier turf and synthetic company. He projects to get a perfect stalking trip under Fernando De La Cruz. Mischievous Rogue is a consistent synthetic specialist who rarely runs a bad race and will be rolling late down the center of the track.
Secondary Choices
Run Carson has been in great form recently and Victor Carrasco retains the mount. He is a versatile sort who can adapt to whatever pace develops. Green Light gets Luan Machado in the irons and has the tactical speed to secure a prime position from the inside post.
Longshots
Alder has a bit of an erratic profile but occasionally throws in a massive speed figure. If David Jacobson has him cranked up today, he could outrun his odds.
Betting Strategy
Churchtown is a strong win bet. Play him over Mischievous Rogue and Run Carson in exactas, and use him as a key in horizontal wagers.
Selections
Win: Churchtown (6) – 40% confidence
Place: Mischievous Rogue (8) – 25% confidence
Show: Run Carson (9) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Green Light (1) – 15% confidence
4th Race – Claiming
Post Time
07:25 PM
Pace Analysis
This route race lacks a standout frontrunner. Sagittarius might find himself on the lead by default, establishing a very moderate tempo.
Key Contenders
Tres Soles comes out of the Joe Sharp barn and gets the services of Gabriel Saez. He possesses a strong late kick and should appreciate the class drop today. Sagittarius is drawn perfectly on the inside with Luan Machado and will either dictate the pace or sit in the garden spot right behind the leader.
Secondary Choices
Alpha Omega is a seasoned veteran who knows his way around this oval. Danny Sheehy will look to place him midpack and make one sustained run. Liam the Brave usually needs pace to run into, but his class makes him a factor even in a paceless race.
Longshots
Mutakatif is an eleven year old veteran who still shows signs of life. While a win might be a stretch, his experience over the surface makes him an interesting candidate for the bottom of the superfecta.
Betting Strategy
This race is wide open, making it a good spot to spread in the Pick 4 and Pick 5. Box Tres Soles, Sagittarius, and Alpha Omega in the exactas.
Selections
Win: Tres Soles (5) – 30% confidence
Place: Sagittarius (1) – 30% confidence
Show: Alpha Omega (6) – 25% confidence
Alternative: Liam the Brave (12) – 15% confidence
5th Race – Maiden Claiming
Post Time
07:55 PM
Pace Analysis
Several of these three year olds are stretching out to a route for the first time, which often leads to an honest pace. Jorge’s Ace and Stuck in Traffic have shown sprint speed and should carry it early.
Key Contenders
Phila Street is a Brad Cox trainee making his way into the claiming ranks. The stable usually connects at a high percentage with this type of class drop, and Fernando De La Cruz is a great fit. Dokkodo is an intriguing first time starter from William Cowans, a barn that excels with debuting runners in route races over this surface.
Secondary Choices
Sir Lomax gets Edgar Morales in the saddle and has been training steadily for Eddie Kenneally. Stoic Sage ran evenly in his debut and has the pedigree to appreciate the added distance today.
Longshots
Red Speedo gets a notable jockey upgrade to Luan Machado. If he can overcome the inside post without getting shuffled back, he could outrun his expected odds.
Betting Strategy
Key Phila Street and Dokkodo in horizontal wagers. A win bet on Dokkodo is advised if his odds float up toward post time.
Selections
Win: Phila Street (3) – 35% confidence
Place: Dokkodo (9) – 30% confidence
Show: Sir Lomax (7) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Red Speedo (6) – 15% confidence
6th Race – Claiming
Post Time
08:25 PM
Pace Analysis
Night Cry and Sunny’s Flame are the designated speed in this field. They should open up a few lengths on the rest of the pack heading into the first turn.
Key Contenders
Sunny’s Flame looks formidable here for trainer Eric Foster. With Fernando De La Cruz aboard, she should be able to dictate the terms on the front end and dare the rest of the field to catch her. Isa Lei drops in class and possesses the best closing kick of the group, making her the prime beneficiary if the frontrunners duel too hard.
Secondary Choices
Peacock Road is another Foster entry who provides tactical versatility. She can stalk the pace and get first run at the leaders. Our Prayer will be closing late and consistently hits the superfecta at this level.
Longshots
Kick Out the Jams is an eight year old mare who has lost a step but still grinds away. She could plug along for a minor award if the pace collapses.
Betting Strategy
Sunny’s Flame looks like a potential single if she can clear early. Play exactas with Sunny’s Flame over Isa Lei and Peacock Road.
Selections
Win: Sunny’s Flame (1) – 40% confidence
Place: Isa Lei (2) – 30% confidence
Show: Peacock Road (7) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Our Prayer (3) – 10% confidence
7th Race – Maiden Claiming
Post Time
08:55 PM
Pace Analysis
A chaotic pace is expected in this large field of maiden fillies. High Dollar Dolly and Ms Jinxy will likely flash early speed, establishing a rapid tempo.
Key Contenders
Veuve On Tap takes a significant class plunge for Rodolphe Brisset. Luan Machado takes the mount, and this filly should find this level much more to her liking after failing to fire against special weight company. Ms Jinxy has early zip and Edgar Morales will likely try to take her wire to wire from the rail draw.
Secondary Choices
Brandys Delight hails from the high percentage Michael Maker stable and adds blinkers today, which could sharpen her focus. Warm Up the Bus is a steady closer who will appreciate the projected fast pace.
Longshots
No Good News has a steady series of works indicating she might be ready for a decent effort at first asking.
Betting Strategy
Veuve On Tap is the standout here on class. Use her on top of Ms Jinxy and Brandys Delight in exactas and trifectas.
Selections
Win: Veuve On Tap (2) – 40% confidence
Place: Ms Jinxy (1) – 25% confidence
Show: Brandys Delight (6) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Warm Up the Bus (9) – 15% confidence
8th Race – Maiden Special Weight
Post Time
09:25 PM
Pace Analysis
Pace should be moderate. Susan’s Boy and Mr Bobo possess the early speed to control the race from the outset.
Key Contenders
Sumood is the class of the field for Brendan Walsh and Edgar Morales. He has been knocking on the door in similar spots and projects to get a beautiful stalking trip today. Susan’s Boy comes from the Cherie DeVaux barn and has potent early speed that makes him extremely dangerous if left alone on the lead.
Secondary Choices
Up Country ran very well in his recent starts at Churchill Downs and should translate that form well to the synthetic surface here. Nyquistador has shown late interest in his previous races and gets a jockey upgrade today.
Longshots
Prime Edge might improve second time out for Josie Carroll. He took money on debut and merits respect if the odds are right.
Betting Strategy
Box Sumood, Susan’s Boy, and Up Country in the exactas. Sumood is a solid single in the late Pick 4.
Selections
Win: Sumood (9) – 35% confidence
Place: Susan’s Boy (6) – 30% confidence
Show: Up Country (7) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Nyquistador (3) – 15% confidence
9th Race – Allowance Optional Claiming
Post Time
09:55 PM
Pace Analysis
Smokey Smokey and Where Ya At Vince are absolute rockets out of the gate. They will assure a blistering pace, setting things up for the closers.
Key Contenders
Live High Live Low is a talented runner for George Weaver who should get the perfect setup today. Victor Carrasco will look to settle him midpack and pounce when the speed tires. Smokey Smokey is the most talented of the speed horses and could simply outrun them all if he brings his A game.
Secondary Choices
Eye Witness has battled some recent veterinary scratches but possesses immense talent when right. If he draws in and starts, he must be respected. My Own will be doing his best running late and always offers a fair price.
Longshots
Boltage ships in for Michael Stidham and gets Joseph Ramos aboard. If he handles the synthetic, he has the figures to compete.
Betting Strategy
Play Live High Live Low to win. Exacta boxes with Smokey Smokey and Eye Witness are the recommended approach.
Selections
Win: Live High Live Low (8) – 35% confidence
Place: Smokey Smokey (4) – 30% confidence
Show: Eye Witness (1) – 20% confidence
Alternative: My Own (9) – 15% confidence
10th Race – Maiden Claiming
Post Time
10:25 PM
Pace Analysis
A scramble is expected in the nightcap. Go Chicago and Prototype have enough speed to vie for the early lead.
Key Contenders
Prototype represents the powerful Steven Asmussen barn and gets Joseph Ramos in the saddle. He has been training sharply and this level seems appropriate for a graduation. Go Chicago has tactical speed and Walter Rodriguez will look to find a stalking spot just off the flank of the leaders.
Secondary Choices
Coach Rudy drops in class for Pavel Matejka and Dylan Machado takes the call. He has faced much tougher fields and could wake up here. Big Tom has shown brief speed in the past and could hold on for a share.
Longshots
Something Fast is a first time starter for Paul McEntee who has shown a few sneaky morning workouts.
Betting Strategy
Prototype looks poised to break his maiden. Key him on top of the exotics and close out the late wagers with him as a single.
Selections
Win: Prototype (10) – 35% confidence
Place: Go Chicago (6) – 30% confidence
Show: Coach Rudy (14) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Big Tom (12) – 15% confidence
Jockey Notes and Insights
The rider colony at Turfway Park this winter is incredibly deep, but a few names stand out tonight. Luan Machado continues to dominate the standings, excelling particularly on horses that need a patient, stalking trip. He has excellent mounts tonight, most notably High End in Race 1 and Veuve On Tap in Race 7. Fernando De La Cruz is a master of pace evaluation on the Tapeta and should not be ignored when he is aboard frontrunners, making Sunny’s Flame a prime candidate in Race 6. Walter Rodriguez is a young rider who routinely outruns his odds and provides excellent value for bettors, while Edgar Morales remains highly reliable on favorites and class droppers.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Michael Maker and Brendan Walsh bring formidable rosters to the track tonight. Maker’s operation is massive, and he excels when dropping horses in class or stretching them out in distance. Walsh has a pair of heavily backed runners tonight in Churchtown and Sumood, both of whom look perfectly spotted to find the winner’s circle. Steven Asmussen rarely sends a horse to this circuit without intent, making Prototype in the nightcap a major player. Additionally, Brad Cox and Joe Sharp must always be factored into horizontal wagers due to their incredibly high win percentages on this surface.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The most lucrative opportunity on tonight’s card is the late Pick 5, beginning in Race 6. The sequence looks very playable if you can confidently single Sunny’s Flame in the opening leg. A suggested structure would be to single Sunny’s Flame in Race 6, spread wide in Race 7 using Veuve On Tap, Ms Jinxy, and Brandys Delight, use Sumood and Susan’s Boy in Race 8, rely on Live High Live Low and Smokey Smokey in Race 9, and single Prototype in Race 10.
For exotic players, the exactas in Race 5 offer tremendous value by keying Dokkodo underneath Phila Street. Dokkodo is an appealing longshot debut runner who should ensure a healthy payout if he sneaks into the place spot. Always keep an eye on the morning line odds for class droppers; horses like High End and Veuve On Tap might look obvious, but if their odds float higher than anticipated, they become exceptional win wagers.
