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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Turfway Park presents a packed ten race program featuring a blend of high level Allowance Optional Claiming events, competitive Maiden Special Weights, and challenging claiming ranks. The feature races of the evening are found in Race 3 and Race 9, both offering substantial purses and high quality fields.

The weather forecast for Florence calls for cloudy skies with a high of 66°F and a low of 49°F. There is a 25% chance of light rain with winds from the southwest at 14 mph. The synthetic Tapeta surface remains highly consistent regardless of the weather, though the mild temperatures should ensure the track plays fast.

Track and Post Position Bias

The Tapeta surface generally offers a fair playing field for all running styles, though tactical speed remains a significant advantage. Horses that can sit just off the lead or in a stalking position are often the most successful. In sprint races, wider draws can be beneficial to avoid kickback, while in the route races at a mile, saving ground on the turns is critical for success.

Race Analysis Summary

1st Race – Maiden Claiming (6 Furlongs) The pace is expected to be honest with High End and Fire Agate pushing the tempo early. High End enters with significant class relief after facing tougher company, while Fire Agate brings consistent speed and a good outside draw. Lyric Street and Dad’s Cara provide reliable secondary options, with Evalina serving as a longshot candidate if the leaders tire.

2nd Race – Claiming (5 1/2 Furlongs) A swift opening quarter is anticipated due to the presence of Lookatmybuckle and Inflammabelle. Frankel Baby is the class of the field and should benefit from the expected pace meltdown. Kanazawa and Fanciful offer strong tactical options, while All About Alice is a potential longshot that excels on synthetic surfaces.

3rd Race – Allowance Optional Claiming (6 1/2 Furlongs) The pace should be solid but controlled, led by Runaway Again. Churchtown is the standout performer here, dropping in from elite turf and synthetic competition. Mischievous Rogue is a local specialist who will be moving late, supported by secondary choices Run Carson and Green Light. Alder represents a wild card longshot.

4th Race – Claiming (1 Mile) This route lacks a clear pacesetter, which may allow Sagittarius to dictate a slow tempo. Tres Soles is a primary contender with a strong closing kick, while Alpha Omega and Liam the Brave provide veteran presence in the secondary tier. Mutakatif is a longshot veteran who remains competitive at this level.

5th Race – Maiden Claiming (1 Mile) Several three year olds stretch out in distance, likely leading to a contested lead between Jorge’s Ace and Stuck in Traffic. Phila Street is the key contender for the Brad Cox stable, while the first time starter Dokkodo is highly regarded. Sir Lomax and Stoic Sage are reliable secondary picks, with Red Speedo offering longshot value.

6th Race – Claiming (1 Mile) Sunny’s Flame and Night Cry are expected to establish a clear early lead. Sunny’s Flame looks particularly strong if she can control the pace. Isa Lei is the primary closer to watch, while Peacock Road and Our Prayer are steady secondary choices. Kick Out the Jams is a deep longshot candidate.

7th Race – Maiden Claiming (6 Furlongs) A rapid pace is expected with Ms Jinxy and High Dollar Dolly vying for the lead. Veuve On Tap is the class of the field dropping from maiden special weight company. Brandys Delight and Warm Up the Bus are secondary threats with different running styles. No Good News is an intriguing longshot debutante.

8th Race – Maiden Special Weight (1 Mile) Susan’s Boy and Mr Bobo are the likely pacesetters in a race with moderate early speed. Sumood is the key contender based on recent consistent efforts. Secondary choices include Up Country and Nyquistador, while Prime Edge could improve as a longshot in his second career start.

9th Race – Allowance Optional Claiming (6 Furlongs) A blistering pace is guaranteed with Smokey Smokey and Where Ya At Vince entered. Live High Live Low is the primary beneficiary of this setup and should be flying late. Eye Witness and My Own are strong secondary options, while Boltage is a longshot shipper to watch.

10th Race – Maiden Claiming (6 Furlongs) The finale features a scramble for the lead between Go Chicago and Prototype. Prototype represents the powerful Asmussen barn and is the horse to beat. Secondary choices include Coach Rudy and Big Tom, with Something Fast serving as a live longshot first time starter.

Jockey and Trainer Insights

Luan Machado and Fernando De La Cruz are the riders to watch, as both have a high win percentage on this surface and have secured several live mounts tonight. From the training ranks, Michael Maker, Brendan Walsh, and Steven Asmussen are the dominant forces, consistently placing their horses in positions where they can succeed. Brad Cox and Joe Sharp also maintain high strike rates at this venue and must be respected in all races.