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Race 1 Claiming 8F Dirt Purse $12,852 Win: THE SHOE LADY (2) – 80% confidence
Place: GOSHEN (5) – 80% confidence
Show: REDWHITEANDTACOS (3) – 60% confidence
Alternative: DIVINE FASHION (1) – 20% confidence
This race features a very strong consensus for the top two finishers. Analysts largely agree that THE SHOE LADY (2) is the horse to beat following her recent win, though GOSHEN (5) is viewed as a formidable challenger coming off a victory at this track. The remaining field is spread, with REDWHITEANDTACOS (3) seen as the most likely candidate for the minor shares.
Race 2 Allowance 8F Dirt Purse $16,318 Win: KRISSYS STAR (1) – 100% confidence
Place: UNCHAINED SPIRIT (2) – 80% confidence
Show: NIXON S TIME (3) – 40% confidence
Alternative: SUPERSONIC AGENDA (6) – 20% confidence
KRISSYS STAR (1) is the undisputed choice among all analysts for the win. The consensus drops slightly for the place position, where UNCHAINED SPIRIT (2) is the preferred second choice. The back end of the exotics shows more variance, but analysts generally expect the favorites to handle the business here.
Race 3 Claiming 1210Y Dirt Purse $6,868 Win: A KISS FOR KHOZAN (7) – 100% confidence
Place: OPULENT WAYS (2) – 60% confidence
Show: DANZING CHICK (1) – 40% confidence
Alternative: VITAEMI (5) – 20% confidence
A KISS FOR KHOZAN (7) stands out as a universal pick for the win, with analysts citing a class drop and strong barn connections. The race for underneath positions is more contested, with OPULENT WAYS (2) having a slight edge over the veteran DANZING CHICK (1).
Race 4 Claiming 1320Y Dirt Purse $12,852 Win: BIG GINGER (7) – 60% confidence
Place: MISS FUSSY PANTS (5) – 40% confidence
Show: HONEY BELLA (2) – 60% confidence
Alternative: ASHLEE S RING (1) – 20% confidence
Analysts are somewhat split between BIG GINGER (7) and HONEY BELLA (2), though the majority lean toward BIG GINGER (7) for the top spot. MISS FUSSY PANTS (5) is frequently mentioned as a horse capable of moving into the top two. This race appears to be a three-horse battle at the top of the card.
Race 5 Claiming 8F Dirt Purse $9,388 Win: TETCHED (9) – 60% confidence
Place: VALID CONNECTION (4) – 60% confidence
Show: PITTSBURGH (1) – 40% confidence
Alternative: ALL MY LIFE (8) – 40% confidence
Opinion is notably divided in Race 5. While TETCHED (9) has the highest win confidence, VALID CONNECTION (4) is viewed as a very strong contender either for the win or place. PITTSBURGH (1) also garners significant support, making this a race where the exotic payouts could be influenced by which of the top three finds the winner’s circle.
Race 6 Claiming 1320Y Dirt Purse $12,852 Win: STOMPING MOON (9) – 40% confidence
Place: RAMSEY (3) – 60% confidence
Show: COOL COUPLE (6) – 40% confidence
Alternative: UNPREDICTABLE BAY (4) – 40% confidence
This race presents the highest degree of analytical variance on the card. There is no clear majority for the win, with STOMPING MOON (9), RAMSEY (3), and COOL COUPLE (6) all receiving support for different positions. Analysts see this as a wide-open contest where several horses have a legitimate claim to victory.
Race 7 Claiming 1320Y Dirt Purse $9,198 Win: GRAND GOLDEN ROAD (4) – 60% confidence
Place: FROMTHEWONDERLAND (7) – 40% confidence
Show: STELLA E VELOCE (5) – 60% confidence
Alternative: NUN GIMEL HAY PO (6) – 20% confidence
GRAND GOLDEN ROAD (4) is the favored choice for the win, though analysts also show a strong preference for FROMTHEWONDERLAND (7) coming off a maiden-breaking win. STELLA E VELOCE (5) is the consensus choice to round out the trifecta in what analysts view as a relatively top-heavy race.
Race 8 Maiden Special Weight 1320Y Dirt Purse $15,309 Win: MAKING DAISYS (2) – 80% confidence
Place: ALLATOU (1) – 100% confidence
Show: ACADEMIC FREEDOM (7) – 60% confidence
Alternative: LADY MIDSHIPMAN (5) – 20% confidence
The finale shows a strong alignment for the top two finishers. MAKING DAISYS (2) is the preferred win selection, while ALLATOU (1) is universally picked to at least finish in the top two. ACADEMIC FREEDOM (7) is the primary choice for the show spot, suggesting a high-probability chalk finish.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1: Analysts suggest a Cold Exacta using THE SHOE LADY (2) over GOSHEN (5). For those looking for more coverage, a Trifecta Key with THE SHOE LADY (2) on top of GOSHEN (5) and REDWHITEANDTACOS (3) is recommended.
Race 2: Given the singular dominance of the top choice, analysts recommend a heavy Exacta with KRISSYS STAR (1) over UNCHAINED SPIRIT (2). A Trifecta Key using KRISSYS STAR (1) over the field (2,3,6) provides safety against minor upsets.
Race 3: Similar to the second race, analysts point toward an Exacta with A KISS FOR KHOZAN (7) over OPULENT WAYS (2). A Trifecta including DANZING CHICK (1) and SPECIAL BEACH (6) in the third spot is advised.
Race 4: This is a race where analysts recommend an Exacta Box featuring BIG GINGER (7), HONEY BELLA (2), and MISS FUSSY PANTS (5). This provides coverage for the three most likely winners in a competitive heat.
Race 5: Analysts suggest a Trifecta Box using TETCHED (9), VALID CONNECTION (4), and PITTSBURGH (1). With the split in opinion for the win, the box strategy captures the value regardless of the order of the top three.
Race 6: Due to the high volatility, analysts recommend a Superfecta Box with STOMPING MOON (9), RAMSEY (3), COOL COUPLE (6), and UNPREDICTABLE BAY (4). This is the “value” race of the day where a small bet could yield a high return.
Race 7: Analysts recommend an Exacta with GRAND GOLDEN ROAD (4) over FROMTHEWONDERLAND (7) and STELLA E VELOCE (5). A Trifecta using the same three horses keyed in the first and second spots is also a viable play.
Race 8: Analysts suggest a straight Exacta with MAKING DAISYS (2) over ALLATOU (1). For more aggressive bettors, a Trifecta using MAKING DAISYS (2) over ALLATOU (1) over ACADEMIC FREEDOM (7) covers the primary consensus order.
Value Play Observations
In Race 1, GOSHEN (5) presents potential value as a horse that matches the consensus leader in many metrics but may offer a slightly better price if the public heavily backs the top pick. In Race 5, VALID CONNECTION (4) is identified as a strong value play; despite not being the consensus win pick, the analyst frequency suggests its probability of winning is nearly equal to the favorite.
Race 6 is the primary source of value on the card. COOL COUPLE (6) is highlighted as an overlooked horse with strong track form that could provide an overlay relative to more publicized runners like RAMSEY (3). In the final race, ACADEMIC FREEDOM (7) may be ignored in the win pool due to the focus on the top two, making it an excellent candidate for place and show bets to boost exotic payouts.
Overall Wagering Strategy
Strongest Consensus Races: The early portion of the card offers the most stability for conservative bettors. Race 2 and Race 3 feature near-unanimous agreement on the winners, KRISSYS STAR (1) and A KISS FOR KHOZAN (7), respectively. These horses command consensus backing due to significant class advantages and superior recent speed figures. Race 8 also shows high confidence in MAKING DAISYS (2), making these the anchors for any multi-race wagers.
Split-Opinion Races: Race 5 and Race 6 are the primary pivots for the day. In Race 5, the tension between analysts backing TETCHED (9) and those favoring VALID CONNECTION (4) suggests a race that could be decided by trip luck. Race 6 is the most analytically fractured, with no clear dominant horse. Bettors should approach these races with wider coverage in exotics or by using multiple horses in Pick sequence legs to avoid being knocked out by a secondary consensus choice.
Multi-Race Sequences: A strong Pick 3 sequence is available spanning Races 1 through 3, anchored by the high-confidence picks in the second and third legs. For more ambitious bettors, a Pick 5 starting in Race 4 through Race 8 is viable, though it requires heavy coverage in the volatile sixth race. Using the consensus anchors in Races 7 and 8 can help reduce the total cost of these tickets.
Exotic Value Opportunities: Race 6 represents the best opportunity to capture pricing inefficiency. The lack of a clear favorite among analysts often leads to a spread betting pool, where a well-constructed superfecta or trifecta can pay significantly above the mathematical probability. Using a four-horse combination in a box or wheeling the top two consensus picks over the field in the minor positions is a recommended structural approach to capture this upside.
Environmental/Track Factors: The card is conducted on a dirt surface with consistent weather conditions reported. Analysts have noted a slight preference for horses with established track records at Mahoning Valley, particularly in the sprint distances found in the latter half of the program. Pace patterns suggest that early speed will be rewarded in the shorter races (Races 3, 4, 6, 7, 8), while the 8-furlong events (Races 1, 2, 5) may allow for more tactical stalking trips.
Key Takeaways: Bettors should prioritize using the standout favorites in Races 2, 3, and 8 as the foundations of their strategy. The most significant wagering gains are likely to be found in Race 6, where analytical variance is highest. Finally, focusing on the three-horse clusters identified in the consensus for Races 4 and 5 will provide the best balance of risk and reward in the mid-card sequences.
