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Cherokee Casino Will Rogers Downs in Claremore, Oklahoma presents a nine-race card on Monday, February 23, 2026, with a first post time of 1:15 PM CST. The 2026 meet launched on January 12, nearly two months earlier than the previous year, and will run through Kentucky Derby Day on May 2. Today’s card features a mix of Oklahoma-bred claimers, open claiming events, one maiden special weight, and one allowance race. Purses range from $12,000 to $26,000, with the featured eighth race being an allowance event at one mile carrying a $26,000 purse.
Notable scratches to monitor: Eurostormsurvivor (PP2) has been scratched from Race 2 due to a veterinarian decision, Devious Lover (PP9) has been scratched from Race 4 by the trainer, and Flash Humor (PP1) has been scratched from Race 7 due to a veterinarian decision. These scratches reduce field sizes and alter the dynamics in those races, particularly in Race 4, where the morning-line favorite is removed.
Weather and Track Conditions
Early morning temperatures in Claremore dropped to a low of approximately 23 degrees Fahrenheit around 5:53 AM, with passing clouds and northerly winds near 8 mph. The high temperature for Monday is forecast to reach 49 degrees, with a low near 34 degrees. Winds will be from the north-northeast at 5 to 10 mph during the day, shifting to south-southeast at 10 to 15 mph overnight. Skies should be mostly sunny with no precipitation expected.
Given the dry conditions and lack of rain in recent days, the main dirt track should play fast throughout the afternoon. The cold overnight temperatures may leave the surface firm early in the card, but as the sun warms the track through the midday hours, expect a standard fast configuration by the time the first race rolls around. No significant moisture concerns exist today, which favors a consistent racing surface.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
Will Rogers Downs generally features a dirt surface that caters favorably to early speed, particularly in sprint distances of five and a half and six furlongs. The short run to the first turn in the one-mile route races places a premium on inside post positions. Horses drawn wide in these two-turn events often lose significant ground unless they possess the elite tactical speed required to clear the field before the bend.
In the sprint races today, inside and middle posts should offer the cleanest trips, while outside runners will need to overcome ground loss. Unless early races indicate a tiring rail, assume standard speed-favoring conditions and upgrade horses that draw inside and project to sit on or near the lead. The light northerly winds today are less of a factor than the typical strong southerly gusts that can create headwind-tailwind dynamics along the backstretch and homestretch.
Race 1 — Claiming $25,000 — 6 Furlongs Dirt — Purse $22,000
Post Time: 1:15 PM CST
For accredited Oklahoma-bred fillies and mares, three years old and upward, which have never won three races. Six entries.
Pace Analysis
This sprint shapes up with Everyone Nos Wendy (PP6) as the designated speed. Her running style is classified as “fastest leader,” and she will likely look to cross over from the outside and dictate terms from the front. Sangria Sunset (PP4) profiles as a mid-pack leader who could press the pace from a stalking position. From The Top Rope (PP3) sits off the pace in a mid-pack style and can deliver a late run. With only one confirmed front-runner in a field of six, the pace should be moderate and kind to the speed, making it difficult for closers to run down the leader if she gets away with soft fractions.
Key Contenders
Everyone Nos Wendy (PP6) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with good reason. In five career starts, she owns a record of 2-3-4, hitting the board 80% of the time with a 40% win rate. She won her most recent outing over this same six-furlong distance at Will Rogers Downs and gets the services of meet-leading jockey David Cabrera, who is clicking at a 21% win rate this meet. Trainer Juan Padilla complements the picture with a solid 10% win rate and 50% in-the-money rate. As the only confirmed speed in a track-bias-friendly position, she should control the pace from gate to wire.
From The Top Rope (PP3) offers serious upset potential. This three-year-old filly gets an eight-pound weight break, carrying just 118 pounds, and has an impressive resume of two wins from four career starts (50% win rate). She won her most recent start at Will Rogers Downs over five and a half furlongs and stretches out to six furlongs here. Jockey Floyd Wethey Jr. boasts a sharp 26% win rate, and trainer Scott E. Young hits at 18%. The light weight and upside make her the prime alternative to the favorite.
Secondary Choices
Sangria Sunset (PP4) brings class and earnings ($134,300) that dwarf the rest of this field. However, she has been racing exclusively at one mile at Remington Park in her last three starts, all finishing fourth or fifth. The cutback to six furlongs is a question mark, though her mid-pack leader style could allow her to draft behind the pace and kick on in the lane. Trainer Francisco Bravo hits at a remarkable 21% win rate with a 65% in-the-money rate, suggesting he places his stock wisely.
Posetively Perfect (PP1) is the ultimate “banker” for underneath slots. Her 15-start record shows only two wins, but she has hit the board 10 times for a 67% show rate. She draws the rail and profiles as a mid-pack runner who typically fills out the superfecta. Her consistency makes her indispensable in multi-race exotics.
Longshots
Gospel Cozy (PP2) at 12/1 on the morning line pulled off an upset win in her last start at Will Rogers Downs over six furlongs. She is a slower closer who will need pace to develop in front of her, which seems unlikely in this scenario. Still, the Williams barn entries can deliver value when overlooked.
Selections
Win: Everyone Nos Wendy (PP6)
Place: From The Top Rope (PP3)
Show: Sangria Sunset (PP4)
Betting Strategy: With a likely short-priced favorite, play an exacta box with PP6 and PP3 on top, keying PP4 and PP1 underneath for the trifecta. A small straight exacta of PP6 over PP3 offers fair value.
Race 2 — Claiming $7,500 — 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt — Purse $13,000
Post Time: 1:42 PM CST
For accredited Oklahoma-bred three-year-olds and upward which have never won three races. Eight entries, with Eurostormsurvivor (PP2) scratched.
Pace Analysis
With the scratch of Eurostormsurvivor, this race loses one pace element but still has enough early speed to produce a contested pace. Blame Da Stoops (PP4) is the fastest stalker who will sit just off the lead. Norway Beach (PP6) profiles as a fast stalker from the outside. The actual frontrunning duties may fall to Leviathan Axe (PP1) or Mission Lockout (PP8) from inside and outside positions respectively. A moderate tempo favors stalkers who can pounce on the turn.
Key Contenders
Blame Da Stoops (PP4) is the morning-line favorite at 2/1 with a record of 2-5-7 from 11 starts, translating to a 64% show rate. His stalking style is ideal for the track bias here. Jockey Travis Cunningham hits at 18% with a 46% in-the-money rate, and trainer Juan Padilla wins at 21% with 55% in-the-money. His consistency and tactical speed make him the one to beat.
Norway Beach (PP6) at 5/2 has extensive experience (20 starts, 2-7-8 record) and $211,050 in career earnings, the highest in the field. However, he has been off the board in his last start at WRD (sixth of eight). Jockey Curtis Kimes and trainer Joe Offolter combine for a solid pairing. The outside post in a 5.5-furlong sprint is manageable, but he needs to break alertly.
Secondary Choices
Den’s Dynasty (PP3) at 5/1 is a fast closer who will need the pace to collapse in front of him. He gets David Cabrera, the leading jockey, in the saddle, which always warrants attention. In a scenario where the frontrunners go too fast, he could rally from off the pace for a share.
Tough Trooper (PP5) at 6/1 won his most recent start at Remington Park over five furlongs but has been tailing off at Will Rogers Downs. The Williams barn has struggled with a low win rate this meet, but this horse has talent when right.
Longshots
I’m Alive (PP7) at 12/1 has a consistent in-the-money profile (52% career) despite a low win rate. He could sneak into the minor placings at a generous price.
Selections
Win: Blame Da Stoops (PP4)
Place: Norway Beach (PP6)
Show: Den’s Dynasty (PP3)
Betting Strategy: Blame Da Stoops should be a single in multi-race plays. Use him on top of exactas with PP6 and PP3 underneath. In the trifecta, key PP4 over PP6, PP3, and PP5 in the second and third slots.
Race 3 — Claiming $5,000 — 1 Mile Dirt — Purse $13,000
Post Time: 2:09 PM CST
For fillies and mares four years old and upward. Six entries. Weight allowances apply based on recent wins.
Pace Analysis
Grand Prairie Gal (PP5) is the designated speed as the fastest leader in this field. She should cross over from her mid-field draw and establish position along the rail entering the first turn. Grace Given (PP4) is a fast stalker who will sit in second or third. Pure Connection (PP1) projects to close from off the pace. With only one true front-runner, the pace should be slow and controlled, which heavily favors Grand Prairie Gal on a speed-favoring surface. Closers will need an unexpectedly hot pace to rally successfully.
Key Contenders
Grace Given (PP4) won her last start at Will Rogers Downs over one mile on February 17 as the 4/6 favorite. That victory demonstrated her ability to handle this distance at this track. With a career record of 3-8-13 from 26 starts and $253,455 in earnings (highest in the field), she brings proven class. Jockey Ronnie Huckaby and trainer Guillermo Flores (21% win rate, 53% ITM) give her a competent connection.
Grand Prairie Gal (PP5) is a seven-time winner from 23 starts with a 30% win rate. She recently competed at Remington Park at one mile and drops in class today. Jockey Floyd Wethey Jr. and trainer Scott E. Young form a productive partnership. She is the speed of the race and should be on or near the lead throughout. The inside posts are advantageous in route races at WRD, and while she draws post five, the small field should allow her to establish position without difficulty.
Secondary Choices
Pure Connection (PP1) owns eight wins from 27 starts (30% win rate) with $152,250 in earnings. She draws the rail, which is advantageous in route races at this track. However, her last three outings at Remington Park were unimpressive. Jockey David Cabrera (22% win) and trainer Scott Corderman (27% win) are the meet’s most productive combination, and the class drop could spark a bounce-back effort.
Lookin Lucky Again (PP6) at 6/1 has four wins from 21 starts, including a one-mile victory at Remington Park. She is a fast closer who could get a piece if the pace gets even slightly hot.
Longshots
Cat Tale Sky (PP3) at 8/1 has hit the board in 43% of her 49 career starts despite only three wins. She is the slowest horse in the field but grinds into the frame at generous odds.
Selections
Win: Grace Given (PP4)
Place: Grand Prairie Gal (PP5)
Show: Pure Connection (PP1)
Betting Strategy: Grace Given and Grand Prairie Gal should dominate, but the order is the key question. Play an exacta box with PP4 and PP5. For the trifecta, key both on top and use PP1 and PP6 in the third slot. Consider a daily double linking Race 2 with this race using Blame Da Stoops (R2 PP4) and Grace Given (R3 PP4).
Race 4 — Claiming $7,500 — 6 Furlongs Dirt — Purse $13,000
Post Time: 2:41 PM CST
For three-year-olds and upward which have never won three races. Nine entries, with Devious Lover (PP9) scratched.
Pace Analysis
With the scratch of Devious Lover, the morning-line favorite is removed, blowing this race wide open. McMusic (PP1) is a fast leader who should break sharply from the rail and attempt to set the pace. Beau Day (PP2) is the fastest leader type in the field and will challenge from just outside. Aux Arcs (PP6) also profiles as an early runner. The duel between PP1 and PP2 could create an honest pace, setting the table for Fastened (PP7) to close from off the pace.
Key Contenders
McMusic (PP1) at a revised morning line becomes the likely favorite with Devious Lover’s scratch. He owns a 2-7-11 record from 19 starts, meaning he hits the board a remarkable 58% of the time. Drawing the rail at six furlongs is advantageous at WRD. His fast leader style suits the track bias. Jockey Larren Delorme and trainer Miguel Angel Silva have been solid this meet. His recent runner-up finish over 5.5 furlongs at WRD suggests he is in good form.
Beau Day (PP2) at 4/1 gets the five-pound weight break at 121 pounds, a significant advantage in a claiming sprint. As the fastest leader type, he could press or challenge McMusic for the early lead. Jockey Ronnie Huckaby and trainer Patrick Swan provide a workmanlike connection.
Secondary Choices
Fastened (PP7) at 6/1 is a fast closer who finished third in his last start and second two back at Remington Park. Jockey Roman Cruz is effective at 11% wins. If the speed duel between PP1 and PP2 gets heated, Fastened is positioned to benefit the most.
Aux Arcs (PP6) at 8/1 is an eight-year-old veteran with 26 starts, winning twice and placing 12 times. His 65% show rate suggests extreme consistency. He races with early speed and could factor if the pace unfolds favorably.
Longshots
Stunning Bruno (PP3) at 10/1 won his last start at WRD over 5.5 furlongs. He is a slowest closer type who will need the pace to melt down, but he has demonstrated ability. At double-digit odds, he provides value in exotic wagers.
Selections
Win: McMusic (PP1)
Place: Fastened (PP7)
Show: Beau Day (PP2)
Betting Strategy: With the favorite scratched, this is a prime spot for exacta and trifecta value. Key McMusic on top with PP7, PP2, and PP6 underneath. A box of PP1, PP7, and PP2 in the trifecta could yield a nice return.
Race 5 — Claiming $7,500 — 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt — Purse $13,000
Post Time: 3:08 PM CST
For accredited Oklahoma-bred fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won three races. Seven entries.
Pace Analysis
Devious Diva (PP2) is the fastest stalker and should sit just off whatever pace develops. She’s A Bond Too (PP3) profiles as a slower leader who may try to take the field gate to wire. Gospel Precious (PP4) showed front-running ability in her recent win. The early pace should be moderate, with two or three runners vying for position through the opening quarter, which ultimately favors Devious Diva’s stalking style.
Key Contenders
Devious Diva (PP2) at 2/1 carries the highest career earnings in the field at $175,688 from 26 starts. Despite a modest 8% win rate, she has hit the board 46% of the time. Jockey Floyd Wethey Jr. (17% win) and trainer Boyd Caster provide a steady connection. Her last-out seventh at WRD over six furlongs is a concern, but she was second two starts back at Remington Park and the cutback to 5.5 furlongs should help.
Rainbow Smiles (PP6) at 4/1 is a 50-start veteran who has been incredibly consistent (48% in-the-money) despite a low 4% win rate. She was third in her last start at WRD over 5.5 furlongs. Getting David Cabrera in the saddle is a significant plus, and trainer Corderman keeps his runners competitive.
Secondary Choices
Suprising Code (PP1) at 7/2 draws the advantageous rail with a 15% win rate and 46% show rate from 13 starts. Jockey Eramia and trainer Offolter form a productive team (Offolter at 15% wins, 47% ITM). Her fourth-place finish last out at WRD suggests she is rounding into form.
Gospel Precious (PP4) at 5/1 won her last start at WRD over 5.5 furlongs and was second the time before that. She is clearly in top form. Jockey Larren Delorme (13% win) gives her a capable ride. She is the value play in this race if she can reproduce her recent efforts.
Longshots
Callitfateluckarma (PP5) at 6/1 is a fast closer who has hit the board 50% of the time (8 from 16 starts). Trainer Tristan Ashford is running at an impressive 29% win rate this meet, making her a dangerous outsider.
Selections
Win: Devious Diva (PP2)
Place: Gospel Precious (PP4)
Show: Rainbow Smiles (PP6)
Betting Strategy: This is a competitive race where spreading in exotics is advisable. Play a trifecta key of PP2 over PP4, PP6, PP1, and PP5 in the second and third slots. Gospel Precious at 5/1 offers stand-alone win value.
Race 6 — Maiden Special Weight — 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt — Purse $25,000
Post Time: 3:35 PM CST
For accredited Oklahoma-bred maidens, fillies and mares three years old and upward. Nine entries.
Pace Analysis
Bailey Sioux (PP4) is the fastest-leads runner in this maiden field and should gun for the front from the outset. Six Gun Sally (PP5) and Brielle (PP2) profile as fast stalkers who will press from close range. The larger field of nine suggests a more competitive pace scenario than some of the earlier sprints, but Bailey Sioux’s early speed and inside draw should allow her to control the race.
Key Contenders
Bailey Sioux (PP4) at 3/2 has hit the board in all three of her career starts (0-2-3) for a 100% in-the-money rate. She was second in her last two starts at WRD, beaten narrowly each time. Her fastest-leads running style suits the track bias, and she appears ready to break her maiden. Jockey Richard Eramia has a 9% win rate, but the horse’s talent should compensate. Trainer Mark C. Lee, though winless on the meet, has a 41% in-the-money rate.
Brielle (PP2) at 6/1 has a record of 0-2-3 from five starts with a 60% show rate. She was second two starts back at WRD over 5.5 furlongs and gets David Cabrera as the pilot. Trainer Jesse Oberlander hits at a remarkable 61% in-the-money rate, suggesting his stock is placed competitively. She is a fast stalker who can sit behind Bailey Sioux and strike if that one tires.
Secondary Choices
Six Gun Sally (PP5) at 6/1 was a close second in her last start at WRD over 5.5 furlongs. Trainer Victor Hanson and jockey Isaiah Wiseman have worked together effectively. She profiles as a fast stalker and could benefit if Bailey Sioux gets pressured early.
Gospel Share (PP3) at 5/1 carries the highest earnings in the field at $23,800 from five starts with two second-place finishes at Remington Park. She carries 126 pounds as a four-year-old, which is eight pounds more than the three-year-olds. Jockey Larren Delorme provides a solid ride.
Longshots
Chitoz Storm Cat (PP1) at 8/1 showed improvement with a third-place finish two starts back at WRD over 5.5 furlongs. She draws the rail, which provides a tactical advantage. Trainer Scott Corderman could have her ready for a forward move at a generous price.
Selections
Win: Bailey Sioux (PP4)
Place: Brielle (PP2)
Show: Six Gun Sally (PP5)
Betting Strategy: Bailey Sioux should be the dominant choice, but maiden races are inherently unpredictable. Play an exacta with PP4 on top to PP2 and PP5. For the trifecta, key PP4 over PP2, PP5, PP3, and PP1 in the second and third positions. This is a good race to use Bailey Sioux as a single in multi-race wagers.
Race 7 — Claiming $7,500 — 6 Furlongs Dirt — Purse $12,000
Post Time: 4:07 PM CST
For three-year-olds and upward which have never won two races. Nine entries, with Flash Humor (PP1) scratched.
Pace Analysis
With Flash Humor scratched, the pace dynamics shift. Smackdown (PP6) is the lone confirmed front-runner with a “fast leads” style. Fine Tuned (PP4) is a fast closer who will stalk from mid-pack. Knock’em Out Jerry (PP3) is a mid-pack leader who can dictate position. The pace should be moderate to slow with Smackdown dictating the early fractions unchallenged, which would make it difficult for the deep closers to reel him in.
Key Contenders
Knock’em Out Jerry (PP3) at 3/1 has a modest one-win record from 16 starts but an exceptionally high 56% show rate. He won his most recent start at WRD over six furlongs and returns to that same distance with confidence. Jockey Alberto Pusac (11% win) and trainer Guillermo Flores (22% win) form a capable team. His mid-pack leader style allows him tactical flexibility.
Fine Tuned (PP4) at 7/2 has an even higher show rate of 61% from 18 starts despite only one career victory. He was second in his last start at WRD over 5.5 furlongs. Jockey Ezequiel Lara is clicking at 19% wins, and trainer Jody Pruitt matches that at 19%. The fast closer style could be effective if Smackdown sets hot fractions.
Secondary Choices
Madethedean’slist (PP8) at 5/1 carries the most experience and earnings ($321,461) in the field. He gets the five-pound weight break at 121 pounds. His third-place finish last out at WRD shows he is competitive at this level. Jockey Ronnie Huckaby provides his usual steady presence.
Smackdown (PP6) at 6/1 has the advantage of unchallenged early speed with Flash Humor scratched. He was fourth last out and second the race before at WRD. Jockey Obed Sanchez and the rail may not be his today, but his front-running style fits the track bias. If he gets loose on the lead, he could wire this field.
Longshots
High Spark (PP2) at 8/1 has just six career starts and owns one win. His fastest closer profile makes him dangerous at a price if the pace gets hot.
Selections
Win: Knock’em Out Jerry (PP3)
Place: Fine Tuned (PP4)
Show: Smackdown (PP6)
Betting Strategy: Key Knock’em Out Jerry on top of exactas with PP4 and PP6 underneath. In the trifecta, box PP3, PP4, and PP6 and add PP8 in the third slot for coverage.
Race 8 — Allowance — 1 Mile Dirt — Purse $26,000
Post Time: 4:34 PM CST
For three-year-olds and upward which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, starter, or Oklahoma state-bred allowance or which have never won two races. Seven entries. This is the featured race on the card.
Pace Analysis
Vestes (PP2) profiles as a fast-leads runner who may look to establish the pace from an inside draw. Guapo (PP3) is a mid-pack leader who should sit in close attendance. Bourbon Life (PP1) is the fastest deep closer who will need a setup. The key pace question is whether Vestes can get an easy lead. If he does, this race sets up perfectly for his front-running style. If challenged, Guapo is positioned to inherit the lead on the turn.
Key Contenders
Guapo (PP3) is the 5/2 morning-line favorite with the highest win rate in the field at 33% from nine starts (3-4-4). He won two starts back at WRD over six furlongs and was second last out at WRD over the same distance. The stretch to one mile is the question, as he has not raced at this distance recently. Jockey Floyd Wethey Jr. and trainer Scott E. Young have been running their horses effectively this meet. If he handles the distance, he is the most talented horse in the field.
Missing Code (PP4) at 4/1 won his last start at WRD over one mile and was second the time before that at the same distance. His record of 3-8-10 from 17 starts produces a 59% show rate, making him the most reliable horse in the field. Jockey Richard Eramia and trainer Joe Offolter (16% win, 57% ITM) form a solid pairing. He is proven at today’s distance and surface.
Secondary Choices
Bourbon Life (PP1) at 7/2 has the most extensive resume with 33 starts, recording 6-12-16 (18% win, 48% show). Career earnings of $223,510 attest to his consistent competitiveness. He draws the inside for the route race, which is advantageous at WRD. Jockey David Cabrera (23% win) and trainer Scott Corderman (27% win) give him the meet’s premier combination. His deep closing style needs pace, but if Vestes sets a true gallop, Bourbon Life could be the one swooping home late.
Vestes (PP2) at 9/2 has five wins from 20 starts (25% win, 60% show) and recently won at Remington Park over seven furlongs and one mile. His fast-leads style is ideal for the track bias. The question is whether he can sustain his speed for a full mile around two turns. Jockey Weston Hamilton’s 9% win rate is a slight concern.
Longshots
Cold Fact (PP5) at 5/1 was second in his last start at WRD over one mile. He is a slowest stalker type who needs a strong pace to run at, but his recent form at this distance warrants inclusion in exotics.
Selections
Win: Missing Code (PP4)
Place: Guapo (PP3)
Show: Bourbon Life (PP1)
Betting Strategy: This is the best betting race on the card. The allowance purse attracts a competitive field with multiple viable contenders. Play an exacta box of PP4 and PP3 with savers to PP1. For the trifecta, key PP4 and PP3 on top with PP1, PP2, and PP5 in the third slot. Consider using this race as a spread in the late Pick 4 or Pick 5 sequence.
Race 9 — Claiming $5,000 — 1 Mile Dirt — Purse $13,000
Post Time: 5:01 PM CST
For four-year-olds and upward. Nine entries. Weight allowances apply based on recent wins at a mile or over.
Pace Analysis
Absaroka (PP2) and Hamazing Wisdom (PP7) are both classified as fastest leaders, which suggests a contested early pace. Ammenthedestroyer (PP1) also shows early speed as a fast leader. With three runners capable of pressing for the lead, the pace should be honest, potentially setting up for stalkers like Prince Rama (PP3) and Outlier (PP6) to run at the leaders in the stretch.
Key Contenders
Absaroka (PP2) at 2/1 is the class of the field with 13 wins from 49 starts (27% win rate) and $257,820 in career earnings. He won at WRD over one mile two starts back and was fourth last out over the same distance. Jockey David Cabrera (23% win) and trainer Guillermo Flores (21% win) are the strongest connection in this race. His speed figure profile marks him as the fastest horse, and he draws a favorable inside post for the route.
Outlier (PP6) at 3/1 is the richest horse on the entire card with $1,149,616 in career earnings from 69 starts. He won at WRD over six furlongs two starts back. The stretch to one mile is the concern, as his recent form has been in sprints. Jockey Floyd Wethey Jr. and trainer Scott E. Young give him every chance.
Secondary Choices
Prince Rama (PP3) at 4/1 brings the highest career win rate in the field at 31% (16 wins from 52 starts) and $236,436 in earnings. He drops significantly in class after competing at Oaklawn Park in his last two starts (finishing 10th and 11th). The class relief here should spark improvement. Jockey Leandro Goncalves and trainer Tony Rengstorf (22% win) provide competent handling.
Hamazing Wisdom (PP7) at 8/1 was third last out at WRD over one mile and could be forwardly placed early as a fastest-leads type. His lone career win suggests he is more of an also-ran, but at this price, he could sneak into the trifecta.
Longshots
Passthecat (PP8) at 12/1 has six wins from 34 starts (18% win) with a 62% show rate. He is an accomplished horse who has been running well enough to warrant inclusion in exotics at double-digit odds.
Selections
Win: Absaroka (PP2)
Place: Prince Rama (PP3)
Show: Outlier (PP6)
Betting Strategy: Absaroka should be a strong single here. Play him on top of exactas keying PP3 and PP6 underneath. For the trifecta, key PP2 over PP3, PP6, PP7, and PP8 in the second and third slots. Include Prince Rama in exotic wagers as the prime upset candidate given his massive class drop.
Jockey Notes and Insights
David Cabrera is the dominant rider at the meet, clicking at a 21-23% win rate with a 51-53% in-the-money rate. He has mounts in Races 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, and 9, making him the busiest rider on the card. His presence immediately elevates any mount, particularly in claiming and allowance events. Key mounts today include Everyone Nos Wendy (R1 PP6), Pure Connection (R3 PP1), Bourbon Life (R8 PP1), and Absaroka (R9 PP2).
Floyd Wethey Jr. is the second-leading rider by win percentage at 17-26% with a 47-59% ITM rate. He rides From The Top Rope (R1 PP3), Grand Prairie Gal (R3 PP5), Devious Diva (R5 PP2), Guapo (R8 PP3), and Outlier (R9 PP6). His mounts in Races 1, 3, and 8 have significant win chances.
Ezequiel Lara, though riding a limited book, is hitting at an impressive 19% win rate. He picks up Fine Tuned (R7 PP4), which could be a live play.
Travis Cunningham maintains an 11-18% win rate with a strong 46-57% ITM rate. His best mount of the day appears to be Blame Da Stoops (R2 PP4), who is the likely favorite.
Alberto Pusac has been steady at 11-17% wins and rides Knock’em Out Jerry (R7 PP3), a likely contender in the seventh race.
Obed Sanchez, despite a modest 8-11% win rate, is extremely active on the card with multiple mounts. He is best used as an underneath threat in exotics rather than as a primary win bet.
Ronnie Huckaby gets the weight-break mounts in Races 4 and 7, riding Beau Day (R4 PP2) and Madethedean’slist (R7 PP8) at 121 pounds. The five-pound advantage is significant in claiming company.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Scott Corderman is the leading trainer by in-the-money percentage, running at 27% wins and 52% ITM at the meet. He saddles Bourbon Life (R8 PP1), Rainbow Smiles (R5 PP6), Chitoz Storm Cat (R6 PP1), and Leviathan Axe (R2 PP1). His allowance runner Bourbon Life is a key horse to watch.
Juan Padilla shows strong numbers at 10-21% wins and 50-55% ITM. He trains the morning-line favorites Everyone Nos Wendy (R1 PP6) and Blame Da Stoops (R2 PP4). Both are logical top picks in their respective races.
Francisco Bravo runs a smaller string but maintains a remarkable 21% win rate with a 65% in-the-money rate. He trains Sangria Sunset (R1 PP4), who could be a value play if she handles the sprint distance.
Tristan Ashford is the hottest trainer on the card at 29% wins. He sends out Callitfateluckarma (R5 PP5), who becomes an automatic inclusion in exotics based on the barn’s current form.
Scott E. Young runs at 14-18% wins and 46% ITM. He trains three horses today including Guapo (R8 PP3) and Grand Prairie Gal (R3 PP5), both of whom are primary contenders.
Joe S. Offolter maintains a 15-16% win rate with a stellar 47-57% ITM rate. His runners Missing Code (R8 PP4) and Suprising Code (R5 PP1) are both live contenders.
Steve F. Williams trains multiple starters but has been running at a low 7-10% win rate. His entries are best suited as underneath exotic plays rather than win bets.
Guillermo Flores has been effective at 19-22% wins and 33-53% ITM. He trains Absaroka (R9 PP2) and Knock’em Out Jerry (R7 PP3), both of whom are logical top picks.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The morning-line odds suggest several strong singles and several opportunities for value in the exotic pools. The overall card leans toward favorites and short-priced contenders, so the wagering strategy should focus on spot plays where legitimate upset candidates exist.
Best Singles for Multi-Race Wagers: Bailey Sioux (R6 PP4) is the standout single on the card. With a 100% in-the-money rate and the fastest-leads style on a speed-biased track, she is the most reliable selection. Blame Da Stoops (R2 PP4) is another solid single with his consistent form. Absaroka (R9 PP2) rounds out the singles as the class horse in the nightcap.
Best Value Play of the Card: Gospel Precious (R5 PP4) at 5/1 on the morning line represents the best value on the card. She won her last start and was second the time before, demonstrating current form that exceeds her odds. In a competitive race where the favorite Devious Diva has been inconsistent, Gospel Precious could go off at even higher odds and provide a generous return.
Race 4 Opportunity: With Devious Lover scratched, Race 4 becomes wide open. McMusic (PP1) should be the new favorite, but the duel between PP1 and Beau Day (PP2) could create value for Fastened (PP7) to close into. This is an ideal trifecta target.
Race 8 Spread Play: The allowance race features several horses with legitimate credentials. Missing Code (PP4) won last out at this distance and deserves top billing, but Guapo (PP3) has the highest raw talent and Bourbon Life (PP1) gets the best connections. Spreading in the exacta and trifecta is the wise approach. An exacta box of PP4, PP3, and PP1 provides solid coverage.
Pick 5 Strategy (Races 5-9): Use Devious Diva and Gospel Precious in Race 5, Bailey Sioux as a single in Race 6, spread Knock’em Out Jerry, Fine Tuned, and Smackdown in Race 7, spread Missing Code, Guapo, and Bourbon Life in Race 8, and use Absaroka as a single in Race 9. This structure provides coverage while keeping the ticket manageable.
Late Daily Double (Races 8-9): Key Missing Code (R8 PP4) and Guapo (R8 PP3) with Absaroka (R9 PP2) and Prince Rama (R9 PP3) for a four-combination play that covers the most likely outcomes.
Longshot of the Day: Callitfateluckarma (R5 PP5) at 6/1 with the hot Tristan Ashford barn (29% win rate) is a horse that could exceed her odds. She is a fast closer in a race where the pace could set up for her style, and the trainer angle alone warrants a small win wager.
