Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Today at Turf Paradise features an eight-race card highlighted by a mix of Arizona-bred stakes, competitive allowance sprints, and an intriguing one-mile turf route. The program begins with quarter horse action before transitioning to thoroughbred events. Notable stables like those of Robertino Diodoro and Dan L. McFarlane are well-represented, and top local riders including Karlo Lopez and Manuel Americano have full books, signaling a high level of competition across the board.
The weather in Phoenix is forecasted to be ideal for racing, with clear to partly cloudy skies and a high temperature near 84°F. With no rain in the forecast, the main track will be fast and the turf course firm. Historically, the dirt surface at Turf Paradise plays to a moderate speed bias in sprints, particularly favoring horses that can secure an early lead or stalk closely from middle to outside post positions. On the turf, the rails are set at zero, which typically favors horses with tactical speed who can save ground on the turns.
Race 1 – 300Y Dirt
The opener is a Quarter Horse allowance sprint where the break is paramount. Imm Beyond the Stars (3) and Sweetdisire (8) bring the most consistent speed to the gate. Famous Mobster (7) and Tell Joe No (6) are the primary threats to the top pair if they can avoid trouble in the initial strides. First Bounty Boy (4) remains a veteran presence who could benefit if the favorites hesitate at the start.
Race 2 – 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
This Maiden Special Weight for 3-year-old fillies features Western Feel (6), who brings experience against winners, and Chapter Seven (3), who has shown talent in morning training. Hidden Beauty (4) and Miss Madame (2) represent strong connections and appear ready for a forward effort. Arizona Rose (5) is the primary longshot consideration if the early pace becomes contested.
Race 3 – 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Rapporteur (4) and Another Lifer (6) are the clear class of this maiden claiming field, both possessing the speed figures to dictate terms. Lucky Tiger (5) and Take a Chance Indy (3) are secondary choices with the tactical speed to stay close. Son of Cupid (1) could improve significantly while saving ground from the rail.
Race 4 – 1 Mile Turf
The feature turf event is led by Platinum Diva (3), who thrives at this distance, and the European import Peak Earnings (5), who joins a high-percentage barn. Kitty House (1) and Loveaboveandbeyond (2) are the main challengers from the inside. Zippin Sevenz (6) is a course specialist who often outruns her odds in these veteran mare cycles.
Race 5 – 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
This maiden sprint is wide open, featuring the debut of Mistysingstheblues (5) and the upwardly mobile Sweet Cindi Lulu (2). Distorted Louv (7) and Kelbela (1) have the most race experience and should be involved early. Whiskeywithatwist (6) has shown enough in local workouts to be considered a viable longshot.
Race 6 – 4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt
Littleyellowjacket (8) is the controlling speed and the one to catch in this dash. Cozmic Brownie (10) and Lucky and Gone (7) are the most likely to capitalize if the leader falters. Higher Performance (3) and Happy Ranch (5) round out the secondary contenders in a race where the outside posts may have a slight advantage.
Race 7 – 6 Furlongs Dirt
A high-level allowance sprint featuring a likely pace duel between Jin Tong (3) and Katar (7). Both are proven winners over this strip. Riverside (4) and Lonesome Boy (5) are the primary beneficiaries should the leaders burn each other out. Unmachable (2) is a veteran runner capable of passing tired horses late.
Race 8 – 6 Furlongs Dirt
The finale is a wide-open claimer where G Dawg (7) and Cancun Native (2) stand out based on recent speed figures. Blacksod Bay (8) and Quebrancho (9) provide solid depth to the field. F B I Bob (1) and Reach Higher (5) are longshots that could factor if they can overcome their respective post positions.
