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The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
oday’s card features eight races, mixing Quarter Horse sprints with Thoroughbred contests on both the main track and the turf course. We kick things off with two sharp Quarter Horse dashes before moving to the Thoroughbreds for the remainder of the card. The feature races include competitive claiming and allowance events that should offer decent value for the astute handicapper. Note that the Arizona Horse Breeders Fund has added a 20% bonus to overnight Arizona-bred races, which may incentivize local connections to have their runners fully cranked for today’s efforts.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Phoenix today is spectacular for racing. We are expecting sunny skies with a high near 85 degrees and a low around 57 degrees. Winds will be light out of the south at approximately 8 mph, which shouldn’t impact the races significantly. With no precipitation in the recent forecast, the dirt track will be fast. The turf course, with the rail set at zero feet, should be firm and fair.
Track Bias
Turf Paradise’s dirt oval tends to favor speed, particularly in the shorter sprints like the 4 1/2-furlong dashes seen in Races 3 and 6 today. In these events, horses that can break alertly and secure the rail or the lead often have a distinct advantage. However, at the one-mile distance (Races 4 and 5), the track can play more fairly, allowing stalkers and even closers to make an impact if the early pace is hot. On the turf (Race 7), the zero-rail setting typically ensures a fair run, though saving ground on the turns is always a premium strategy here. Watch the first few races closely; if front-runners are wiring the field, upgrade your early speed horses accordingly.
1st Race – Maiden Claiming
Post Time
01:15 PM
Pace Analysis
In this 250-yard Quarter Horse sprint, the break is everything. Expect Betz Cartel and Rr Favorite Power to vie for the early advantage. In these super-short dashes, there is no time to recover from a poor gate break. The pace will be frantic from the jump, and whoever handles the pressure best in the first 50 yards will likely prevail.
Key Contenders
Betz Cartel enters this race with strong backing from handicappers. As a three-year-old filly, she has shown flashes of potential that fit well at this level. Her connections, trainer Matthew Fales and jockey Oscar Andrade Jr., are a formidable team at this track. If she breaks cleanly, she is the one to beat.
Secondary Choices
Rr Favorite Power is another runner who deserves respect. Trainer Gilberto Canales has this gelding in a spot where he can be competitive. While his form may not be as flashy as the favorite, he fits the conditions well. Actually Special, drawing the rail, could use the inside position to his advantage if he can get away quickly.
Longshots
Bd Royal Angel draws the outside post. Note that this filly was an Also-Eligible entry recently on February 16, meaning she has been trying to get into a race. Her fitness should be decent, and the outside draw in a straight-line sprint can sometimes be beneficial if the inside traffic gets congested.
Betting Strategy
Focus on the win bet for Betz Cartel but consider a small exactor box with Rr Favorite Power. The distance is too short for complex strategies; keep it simple.
Selections
Win: Betz Cartel (2) – 35% confidence Place: Rr Favorite Power (4) – 25% confidence Show: Actually Special (1) – 20% confidence Alternative: Bd Royal Angel (5) – 10% confidence
2nd Race – Allowance
Post Time
01:45 PM
Pace Analysis
This 300-yard allowance race for older horses features seasoned runners. Makin Traxx and Mr Snootie Cartel both possess the gate speed necessary to contend. The slight increase in distance from the opener allows for a tiny bit more strategy, but it is still essentially a drag race.
Key Contenders
Makin Traxx is the consensus top selection here. Drawing the rail can be tricky in Quarter Horse races if the horse doesn’t break, but if he does, he has the shortest path to the wire. Trainer Diego Cervantes has him spotted well for this condition.
Secondary Choices
Mr Snootie Cartel is an interesting contender. He was an Also-Eligible for a stakes race on February 16, suggesting his connections believe he is in good form. Dropping into this allowance spot might give him the class relief he needs to fire a big effort. Somekinda Patriot is another veteran who knows where the wire is and should be in the mix for the exotics.
Longshots
Jess Go West has the speed to surprise if the top contenders stumble. At 300 yards, a clean trip is worth lengths, and if he avoids trouble, he could sneak into the money at a price.
Betting Strategy
This looks like a race to key Makin Traxx in the top spot of your daily doubles. A straight win bet is the primary play, with a saver on Mr Snootie Cartel.
Selections
Win: Makin Traxx (1) – 30% confidence Place: Mr Snootie Cartel (6) – 25% confidence Show: Somekinda Patriot (3) – 20% confidence Alternative: Jess Go West (4) – 10% confidence
3rd Race – Claiming
Post Time
02:15 PM
Pace Analysis
We switch to Thoroughbreds for a 4 1/2-furlong sprint. This is a specialized distance that heavily favors early speed. Go Stormin Girl and Hot Jammies both show the ability to flash early foot. Expect a duel on the front end, which could set things up for a horse sitting just off the pace if they go too fast.
Key Contenders
Hot Jammies is the horse to watch. Drawing the outside post in a field of seven is advantageous at this distance, allowing jockey Blake Nunnally to watch the break and decide when to press. Her recent form suggests she is ready to tackle this group of claiming mares.
Secondary Choices
Miss Accelerate has the rail and Karlo Lopez aboard. Lopez is aggressive and will likely send her from the gate to protect her position. If she clears the field, she could be hard to catch. Ready to Gig is a consistent runner who fits well here and should be picking up the pieces if the leaders tire.
Longshots
Happy Chappy is a wild card. If the pace meltdown occurs, she could be the one closing late. While 4 1/2 furlongs is rarely won from the clouds, a tiring track or a suicidal pace duel brings her into the picture for the trifecta or superfecta.
Betting Strategy
A win bet on Hot Jammies is the solid play. For exotics, box Hot Jammies and Miss Accelerate in the exacta, as they look to be the clear class of the field.
Selections
Win: Hot Jammies (7) – 35% confidence Place: Miss Accelerate (1) – 25% confidence Show: Ready to Gig (3) – 20% confidence Alternative: Happy Chappy (5) – 10% confidence
4th Race – Claiming
Post Time
02:45 PM
Pace Analysis
This one-mile dirt event for fillies and mares will test their stamina. Roubaix and Gold Coast Girl have shown speed in the past and may try to dictate terms. A moderate pace is expected, which usually helps the horses on the lead or sitting in the garden spot just behind.
Key Contenders
Willing to Burn is a consensus favorite, but proceed with caution. The scratch log shows a Veterinarian scratch on February 14. While she has the class to win, that recent medical scratch is a red flag. However, if she is right, she is the most likely winner.
Secondary Choices
Roubaix draws the rail and gets Francisco Garcia. She should save all the ground and be in a prime position turning for home. If Willing to Burn is not 100%, Roubaix is the logical heir apparent. Gold Coast Girl is another runner who fits these conditions and should be included in multi-race wagers.
Longshots
Yogya has the ability to grind out a check. In a race with some question marks surrounding the favorite’s health, looking for a stable runner like Yogya to hit the board is a sound strategy.
Betting Strategy
Tread lightly with the favorite due to the vet scratch. A small win bet on Roubaix might offer better value. In vertical wagers, use Willing to Burn defensively but try to beat her with Roubaix.
Selections
Win: Willing to Burn (7) – 28% confidence Place: Roubaix (1) – 25% confidence Show: Gold Coast Girl (6) – 20% confidence Alternative: Yogya (5) – 12% confidence
5th Race – Claiming
Post Time
03:15 PM
Pace Analysis
Another one-mile dirt contest, but for older boys. Logical Myth and Fireman Dan are the class of this field and have the tactical speed to control the race. Expect Logical Myth to press the pace early, looking to take over midway through the far turn.
Key Contenders
Logical Myth is a strong contender here. With Manuel Americano riding for the Silva barn, this horse ticks all the boxes: pace, connections, and class. He should be right there at the wire. Fireman Dan is the main danger. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is a high-percentage trainer, and when he drops horses into this claiming level, they usually fire.
Secondary Choices
Standard of Proof has been consistent and figures to be in the mix. Drawing the middle of the pack allows his jockey to assess the pace and make a move when it counts. Drinking Again is a capable runner but, like the favorite in the previous race, shows a Veterinarian scratch on February 5. Monitor the tote board for clues on his fitness.
Longshots
Peso draws the rail and could save ground to sneak a share of the purse. While he may lack the raw power of the top two, a ground-saving trip could land him in the trifecta at a price.
Betting Strategy
This feels like a two-horse race between Logical Myth and Fireman Dan. An exacta box of 2-6 is the recommended play.
Selections
Win: Logical Myth (2) – 35% confidence Place: Fireman Dan (6) – 30% confidence Show: Standard of Proof (5) – 15% confidence Alternative: Peso (1) – 10% confidence
6th Race – Maiden Claiming
Post Time
03:45 PM
Pace Analysis
Back to the 4 1/2-furlong sprint distance for maidens. This is often a chaotic class. River’s Benchmark has shown speed and will likely try to clear the field from the outside posts. First Eldaafirst on the rail will have to go hard to avoid getting shuffled back.
Key Contenders
River’s Benchmark is the horse to beat. The outside draw is perfect for this distance, allowing the jockey to keep the horse in the clear and free of kickback. If he breaks well, he should graduate today.
Secondary Choices
First Eldaafirst needs a clean break from the rail. If he gets it, he has the speed to contend. Smile Smile Smile gets a weight break with the apprentice allowance or light assignment (121 lbs) and could use that to his advantage late in the lane.
Longshots
Sand Paynter is a first-time starter or lightly raced runner who could improve. In maiden claiming sprints, unknown quantities often pop at big prices. Trainer Dan McFarlane is capable of having them ready.
Betting Strategy
River’s Benchmark looks like a solid single in the Pick sequence. For the win bet, he offers the most reliability in a field full of maidens.
Selections
Win: River’s Benchmark (6) – 32% confidence Place: First Eldaafirst (1) – 22% confidence Show: Smile Smile Smile (3) – 18% confidence Alternative: Sand Paynter (9) – 12% confidence
7th Race – Claiming
Post Time
04:15 PM
Pace Analysis
The lone turf race on the card is at one mile. The zero rail means the course is wide and fair. Chamaville and Ribbons and Lace should be forwardly placed. Turf races often come down to the trip; look for horses that can save ground and kick home.
Key Contenders
Chamaville is a consistent turf performer. Trainer Bennie Woolley Jr. has this mare in good form, and she fits this class level perfectly. If she gets a clear run in the stretch, she will be tough to hold off.
Secondary Choices
Ribbons and Lace was an Also-Eligible back in January, so she has been waiting for her spot. Frank Alvarado is a veteran rider who knows how to judge a turf mile. She is a major player. Built Different has shown flashes of ability and could improve on the grass.
Longshots
Charley Paints had a Gate scratch on February 2. If his gate issues are resolved, he has the talent to compete. However, that scratch is a worry, so demand a price before betting. Sunglasses (GB) brings European breeding to the table, which is always dangerous on the lawn.
Betting Strategy
Turf races are great for value. Consider an exacta box with Chamaville, Ribbons and Lace, and Sunglasses (GB).
Selections
Win: Chamaville (3) – 28% confidence Place: Ribbons and Lace (5) – 25% confidence Show: Sunglasses (GB) (4) – 15% confidence Alternative: Built Different (2) – 12% confidence
8th Race – Claiming
Post Time
04:48 PM
Pace Analysis
The nightcap is a six-furlong dirt sprint. Forty Niner Gold and Texoma will likely contest the pace. This is a classic sprint setup where the one who withstands the early pressure wins.
Key Contenders
Forty Niner Gold is the morning line favorite for a reason. Trainer Ruben Fuentes and jockey Orlando Mojica are a potent combination. The horse has the speed to clear and the stamina to hold on.
Secondary Choices
Texoma is the main threat, though note the Stewards scratch on January 22. That usually implies a behavioral or administrative issue rather than physical, so he should be physically sound. If he behaves, he is fast. Run Baba Run draws the rail and will be forced to commit early.
Longshots
Levi Gone Wild is a closer who would benefit if the top two burn each other out. At six furlongs, there is enough time for a closer to get up if the fractions are suicidal.
Betting Strategy
Forty Niner Gold is the most likely winner to close out the card. Use him as a key in the last leg of the Pick 4 or Pick 5.
Selections
Win: Forty Niner Gold (2) – 30% confidence Place: Texoma (5) – 25% confidence Show: Run Baba Run (1) – 15% confidence Alternative: Levi Gone Wild (6) – 10% confidence
Jockey Notes and Insights
Manuel Americano is currently the rider to watch. Leading the jockey standings with over 40 wins, he is riding with extreme confidence. When he is on a favorite or a live contender (like Logical Myth in Race 5), it is an upgrade. Karlo Lopez is another rider who excels on speed horses; watch him on the rail in Race 3 (Miss Accelerate). Orlando Mojica is a crafty veteran who rides the closing races well; his mount in the 8th race is a prime example of his ability to finish strong.
Trainer Notes and Insights
The Silva barn (Jose Silva, Jr.) and the Diodoro barn (Robertino Diodoro) are the powerhouses to respect today. When they enter horses in claiming races, they are usually spotted to win immediately. Note the entry of Fireman Dan in Race 5 for Diodoro; this is a high-percentage move. Also, keep an eye on trainer Matthew Fales with the Quarter Horses in Race 1; his barn specializes in these sprints.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The best value on the card appears to be in the Daily Double combining Race 5 and Race 6. Leg 1 (Race 5): Use Logical Myth (#2) and Fireman Dan (#6). Leg 2 (Race 6): Key River’s Benchmark (#6). This structure allows you to leverage the two strongest opinions on the card.
For a Value Play, look at Race 4, Roubaix (#1). The favorite in that race (Willing to Burn) coming off a vet scratch makes her vulnerable. If Roubaix can sneak away on the rail, she could pay a nice price over a suspect favorite.
For Pick 5 players, the sequence from Race 4 to Race 8 is challenging but winnable. R4: 1, 7 R5: 2, 6 R6: 6 R7: 3, 4, 5 R8: 2, 5 This ticket focuses on the key contenders while spreading slightly in the competitive turf race.
