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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Today’s eight-race card offers a compelling mix of Quarter Horse sprints and Thoroughbred contests on both the dirt and turf.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Phoenix today is spectacular, with sunny skies and a high near 85 degrees. With light southerly winds and no recent precipitation, the dirt track is expected to be fast, while the turf course remains firm.
Track Bias
The dirt oval traditionally favors early speed, especially in the 4 1/2-furlong sprints where securing the rail or an early lead provides a significant advantage. The one-mile dirt races tend to play more fairly, allowing for tactical stalkers. On the turf, the rail is set at zero feet, providing a fair surface for all runners, though ground-saving trips around the turns remain a priority.
Race-by-Race Summary
1st Race – Maiden Claiming (250Y Dirt)
Post Time: 01:15 PM This opening Quarter Horse dash will be decided at the break. Key Contenders: Betz Cartel (2) brings top connections and a sharp recent form. Secondary Choices: Rr Favorite Power (4) fits well at this level, and Actually Special (1) benefits from the inside post. Longshots: Bd Royal Angel (5) could surprise from the outside if she handles the gate traffic well.
2nd Race – Allowance (300Y Dirt)
Post Time: 01:45 PM A competitive sprint for older Quarter Horses. Key Contenders: Makin Traxx (1) is the horse to beat if he can utilize his rail position to find a clear path. Secondary Choices: Mr Snootie Cartel (6) drops down from stakes competition, while Somekinda Patriot (3) provides veteran experience. Longshots: Jess Go West (4) possesses enough gate speed to capitalize on any mistakes by the leaders.
3rd Race – Claiming (4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt)
Post Time: 02:15 PM This Thoroughbred sprint heavily favors those who can clear the field early. Key Contenders: Hot Jammies (7) is well-drawn on the outside to watch the break and press the pace. Secondary Choices: Miss Accelerate (1) will likely be sent hard from the rail, and Ready to Gig (3) is a model of consistency. Longshots: Happy Chappy (5) is the most likely closer should a speed duel materialize.
4th Race – Claiming (1 Mile Dirt)
Post Time: 02:45 PM Stamina and tactical positioning are the primary factors in this two-turn event. Key Contenders: Willing to Burn (7) is the class of the field, though her recent veterinary scratch is worth monitoring. Secondary Choices: Roubaix (1) is expected to save ground on the rail, and Gold Coast Girl (6) is always competitive in this grade. Longshots: Yogya (5) could grind out a share of the purse with a steady effort.
5th Race – Claiming (1 Mile Dirt)
Post Time: 03:15 PM A clash of heavy hitters in the older male claiming division. Key Contenders: Logical Myth (2) and Fireman Dan (6) stand out as the primary class of this race. Secondary Choices: Standard of Proof (5) has been knocking on the door, and Drinking Again (4) is a capable runner if fully fit. Longshots: Peso (1) could navigate a ground-saving trip to hit the board at a price.
6th Race – Maiden Claiming (4 1/2 Furlongs Dirt)
Post Time: 03:45 PM A field of maidens looking for their first career victory. Key Contenders: River’s Benchmark (6) draws perfectly on the outside and has the speed to dictate terms. Secondary Choices: First Eldaafirst (1) is the main speed from the inside, while Smile Smile Smile (3) benefits from a light weight assignment. Longshots: Sand Paynter (9) is a lightly raced runner who could show significant improvement.
7th Race – Claiming (1 Mile Turf)
Post Time: 04:15 PM The only grass race of the day features a full and wide-open field. Key Contenders: Chamaville (3) is a proven turf specialist who fits the conditions of this race perfectly. Secondary Choices: Ribbons and Lace (5) should be prominent early, and Built Different (2) could appreciate the return to the lawn. Longshots: Sunglasses (GB) (4) and Charley Paints (10) both offer intrigue if they can overcome recent hurdles.
8th Race – Claiming (6 Furlongs Dirt)
Post Time: 04:48 PM The finale is a standard dirt sprint that will require a strong finishing kick. Key Contenders: Forty Niner Gold (2) is the designated leader and the horse to catch in the stretch. Secondary Choices: Texoma (5) has the raw speed to challenge, and Run Baba Run (1) must defend his position from the inside. Longshots: Levi Gone Wild (6) will be doing his best work late and needs a fast pace to set up his run.
Jockey and Trainer Notes
Jockey Manuel Americano continues his dominant run, particularly on live favorites where his aggressive style pays dividends. Karlo Lopez remains the go-to rider for horses needing to be put into the race early. On the training side, the barns of Robertino Diodoro and Jose Silva, Jr. are in peak form, making their entries formidable whenever they appear in the claiming ranks. In the Quarter Horse events, Matthew Fales continues to be a specialist to respect.
