Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	B	D
Mid Pace	C	D
Late Pace	A	C
Finish Pos	C	F
Dirt Speed	D	F
Turf Speed	A	C
Distance Speed	D	F
Recent
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	A	C
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	A	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	C
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	C	D
Mid Pace	C	D
Late Pace	F	F
Finish Pos	D	F
Dirt Speed	C	D
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	C	D
Recent
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	C	D
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	F	F
Sprint FPS	C	D
Route FPS	C	F

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	F	F
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	F	F
Mid Pace	F	F
Late Pace	B	D
Finish Pos	F	F
Dirt Speed	D	F
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Recent
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	F	F
Mid Pace	F	F
Late Pace	A	C
Sprint FPS	F	F
Route FPS	F	F

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	D
Speed	C	F
Early Pace	C	D
Mid Pace	B	D
Late Pace	C	D
Finish Pos	C	F
Dirt Speed	B	D
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	B	D
Recent
Speed	C	F
Early Pace	C	D
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	D	D
Sprint FPS	C	D
Route FPS	C	D

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	C
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	D
Mid Pace	B	D
Late Pace	B	C
Finish Pos	A	C
Dirt Speed	A	D
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Recent
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	C
Late Pace	C	C
Sprint FPS	A	C
Route FPS	B	D

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	D
Speed	D	F
Early Pace	D	F
Mid Pace	D	F
Late Pace	C	D
Finish Pos	B	F
Dirt Speed	D	F
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Recent
Speed	D	F
Early Pace	D	F
Mid Pace	D	F
Late Pace	B	D
Sprint FPS	D	F
Route FPS	D	F

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	D
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	A	C
Mid Pace	A	C
Late Pace	A	C
Finish Pos	A	D
Dirt Speed	A	D
Turf Speed	C	C
Distance Speed	A	C
Recent
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	D
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	A	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	C
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	C
Mid Pace	A	C
Late Pace	D	F
Finish Pos	A	F
Dirt Speed	A	C
Turf Speed	B	C
Distance Speed	A	C
Recent
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	A	C
Late Pace	C	D
Sprint FPS	B	D
Route FPS	B	D

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	B
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	C	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	C	C
Finish Pos	B	D
Dirt Speed	C	B
Turf Speed	D	C
Distance Speed	B	B
Recent
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	B	B
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	B	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	C
Speed	D	B
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	D	D
Dirt Speed	D	A
Turf Speed	D	C
Distance Speed	B	A
Recent
Speed	F	B
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	F	F
Route FPS	F	F

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	B
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	D	A
Mid Pace	C	A
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	C	D
Dirt Speed	F	D
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	F	F
Recent
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	F	C
Mid Pace	F	C
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	F	C
Route FPS	D	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	A
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	A
Finish Pos	B	C
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	B	B
Distance Speed	A	A
Recent
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	B
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	B	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	A
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	B
Finish Pos	A	C
Dirt Speed	A	B
Turf Speed	B	B
Distance Speed	C	B
Recent
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	D	C
Route FPS	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	F	D
Late Pace	C	B
Finish Pos	C	C
Dirt Speed	B	A
Turf Speed	F	D
Distance Speed	F	F
Recent
Speed	C	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	D	A
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	A	A

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	D	A
Late Pace	D	C
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	C	B
Turf Speed	C	C
Distance Speed	D	C
Recent
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	D	D
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	C	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	C
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	C	A
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	A	A
Recent
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	B	A
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	B
Finish Pos	C	D
Dirt Speed	A	B
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	A	A
Recent
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	B
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	A	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	F	C
Speed	F	D
Early Pace	F	B
Mid Pace	F	A
Late Pace	F	F
Finish Pos	F	D
Dirt Speed	B	B
Turf Speed	F	C
Distance Speed	A	B
Recent
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	D	B
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	F	F
Sprint FPS	C	C
Route FPS	F	F

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	F	B
Speed	D	B
Early Pace	C	A
Mid Pace	C	A
Late Pace	C	B
Finish Pos	B	C
Dirt Speed	D	B
Turf Speed	C	C
Distance Speed	D	A
Recent
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	F	B
Mid Pace	F	B
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	C	C
Route FPS	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	A
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	C	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	B	B
Finish Pos	B	D
Dirt Speed	D	B
Turf Speed	D	C
Distance Speed	B	B
Recent
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	C	B
Route FPS	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	A
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C
Finish Pos	D	D
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	A	A
Recent
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	B	B
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	A	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	A
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	A	C
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	B	B
Distance Speed	C	B
Recent
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	D	B
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	D	C
Route FPS	D	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	B	C
Finish Pos	A	C
Dirt Speed	A	B
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	D	C
Recent
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	D	C
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	B	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	A
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	D	A
Mid Pace	F	B
Late Pace	B	B
Finish Pos	C	D
Dirt Speed	F	C
Turf Speed	B	C
Distance Speed	F	B
Recent
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	D	B
Mid Pace	D	B
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	F	D
Route FPS	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	C	D
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	A	A
Recent
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	B
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	A	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	B	C
Distance Speed	A	A
Recent
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C
Sprint FPS	C	C
Route FPS	B	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	C	A
Late Pace	D	C
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	D	B
Turf Speed	C	C
Distance Speed	F	C
Recent
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	D	D
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	C
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	C
Finish Pos	B	D
Dirt Speed	B	B
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	C	C
Recent
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	F	D
Sprint FPS	C	D
Route FPS	D	D

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	F	A
Mid Pace	C	A
Late Pace	D	D
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	B	A
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	B	A
Recent
Speed	F	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	F
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	D	C
Finish Pos	C	F
Dirt Speed	C	C
Turf Speed	B	B
Distance Speed	A	B
Recent
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	B	B
Sprint FPS	B	C
Route FPS	B	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	A
Speed	F	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	F	D
Finish Pos	F	F
Dirt Speed	C	B
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	C	A
Recent
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	D	C
Sprint FPS	B	C
Route FPS	D	D

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	C
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	F	D
Late Pace	A	C
Finish Pos	A	D
Dirt Speed	B	B
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	A	B
Recent
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	D
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	C
Sprint FPS	B	D
Route FPS	A	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	B
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	D	A
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	C	C
Dirt Speed	C	A
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	C	A
Recent
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	C	A
Late Pace	C	B
Sprint FPS	D	C
Route FPS	F	D

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	D
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	C	C
Finish Pos	F	F
Dirt Speed	D	C
Turf Speed	B	C
Distance Speed	D	C
Recent
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	D	D
Sprint FPS	D	F
Route FPS	F	F

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	B
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	A	C
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	B	C
Finish Pos	C	F
Dirt Speed	C	C
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	A	B
Recent
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	C	D
Route FPS	C	D

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	D
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	B	C
Finish Pos	F	F
Dirt Speed	D	C
Turf Speed	B	C
Distance Speed	D	C
Recent
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	D	D
Sprint FPS	D	F
Route FPS	F	F

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	D	C
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	D
Finish Pos	C	F
Dirt Speed	C	C
Turf Speed	B	A
Distance Speed	B	B
Recent
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	B	C
Route FPS	B	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	D	C
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	A	C
Finish Pos	A	C
Dirt Speed	A	B
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	D	C
Recent
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	D
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	B	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	B
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	F	C
Mid Pace	F	B
Late Pace	B	A
Finish Pos	C	C
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	A	A
Recent
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	B	B
Sprint FPS	C	D
Route FPS	C	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	F	D
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	D	D
Finish Pos	C	F
Dirt Speed	D	C
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	F	F
Recent
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	F	D
Late Pace	F	F
Sprint FPS	D	D
Route FPS	D	F

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	B
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	D	D
Finish Pos	A	C
Dirt Speed	B	C
Turf Speed	C	C
Distance Speed	A	B
Recent
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	C	D
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	C
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	F	D
Late Pace	A	C
Finish Pos	B	D
Dirt Speed	B	C
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	B	B
Recent
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	B	C
Sprint FPS	B	D
Route FPS	A	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	B
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	B	C
Finish Pos	D	F
Dirt Speed	C	C
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	B	B
Recent
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	C	D
Route FPS	C	D

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	C
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	B	C
Finish Pos	B	D
Dirt Speed	B	C
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	C	C
Recent
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	D	D
Sprint FPS	C	D
Route FPS	C	D

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	D
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	B	F
Finish Pos	F	F
Dirt Speed	A	D
Turf Speed	B	C
Distance Speed	A	C
Recent
Speed	B	F
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	D
Late Pace	C	F
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	C	D

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	C
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	A	C
Mid Pace	A	C
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	C	C
Dirt Speed	A	C
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	A	C
Recent
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	A	C
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	C	D
Route FPS	A	C

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	D
Speed	C	F
Early Pace	C	D
Mid Pace	C	D
Late Pace	D	F
Finish Pos	D	F
Dirt Speed	D	D
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	C	D
Recent
Speed	C	F
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	D	F
Sprint FPS	D	D
Route FPS	D	F

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	A	C
Mid Pace	A	C
Late Pace	A	D
Finish Pos	B	C
Dirt Speed	A	C
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	A	C
Recent
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	A	C
Sprint FPS	C	D
Route FPS	A	B

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	F
Speed	C	F
Early Pace	C	F
Mid Pace	C	F
Late Pace	C	F
Finish Pos	D	F
Dirt Speed	C	D
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Recent
Speed	C	F
Early Pace	C	F
Mid Pace	C	D
Late Pace	C	F
Sprint FPS	C	C
Route FPS	C	D

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	A	C
Dirt Speed	F	C
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	C	C
Recent
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	C	B
Route FPS	C	A

TL;DR

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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Aqueduct Racetrack offers an eight-race card today, Sunday, March 1, 2026, with a first post time of 1:10 PM Eastern. The card features a mix of maiden claimers, claimers, a starter allowance, and the featured $135,000 Correction Stakes for older fillies and mares at six furlongs. The Correction (Race 7) headlines the card and has attracted a competitive group of seven, led by the talented With The Angels (7) and Lucille Ball (4), who bring the strongest recent form into the race. The card also marks a poignant moment as NYRA continues the farewell celebration at the historic Big A.

Scratch watch items to monitor: Stanicky (3) in Race 1 has been scratched. Additionally, Divine Leader (2) in Race 3 is flagged with a private vet injury, Uncle Barrie (1) in Race 4 with a stewards issue, Tree House (8) in Race 5 with a vet illness, House United (5) in Race 6 with a private vet illness, and Hold Your Breath (1) and On Command (5) in Race 7 both flagged with trainer scratches. Check final entries before wagering.

Weather and Track Conditions

The weather is a significant factor today. Conditions at Aqueduct are breezy and much colder with periods of snow expected into the early afternoon, with accumulations of a coating to one inch. The high temperature will only reach 32 degrees Fahrenheit with north winds of 10 to 15 mph gusting up to 25 mph. Snow chances run approximately 60 percent through the early afternoon before clearing.

The dirt track was listed as Muddy during the most recent racing days, with sloppy conditions seen as recently as February 20. Given overnight temperatures near freezing and residual moisture already in the ground, the track could be sealed and listed as Muddy or Sloppy today. When the track is sealed and relatively uniform, the inside can still be the preferred path. However, additional moisture from the snow could soften the surface further, potentially shifting the bias toward the middle of the track. Players should monitor the listed track condition closely as it will significantly impact how the races are run.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

The Aqueduct winter meet has exhibited a pronounced and persistent inside/rail bias throughout the 2025-2026 season. Track analysts have documented this trend extensively from November through mid-February.

At six furlongs on dirt, 51 percent of winners have gone wire-to-wire during the current meet. Early speed has been the dominant running style, and inside post positions (posts 1-4) have been strongly favored. At seven furlongs on dirt, 35 percent of winners went wire-to-wire, with early speed again the best style, though outside posts showed up slightly more frequently at that distance.

During February, the rail continued to provide a significant advantage on multiple racing days, with forwardly placed runners and those saving ground on the inside having a clear edge. Days throughout February 12, 13, 15, and earlier in the month all showed rail and speed advantages of varying intensity. The general consensus about the Aqueduct track bias is that inside posts (1-6) tend to be more profitable in both routes and sprints.

Today's snow and cold introduce uncertainty. If the track is sealed and uniform, the inside bias should hold. If the surface becomes deeper and wetter, jockeys may drift wider and the bias could neutralize. For wagering purposes, lean toward speed and inside posts but be prepared to adjust if the track condition changes dramatically.

Race 1 — Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $34,000

Post Time: 1:10 PM

Three-year-old geldings going one mile on the dirt for a $20,000 claiming tag. A six-horse field after the scratch of Stanicky (3). The morning line favorite is Geostoblame (2) at 6/5 for Todd Pletcher with Kendrick Carmouche aboard.

Pace Analysis

Big Brooklyn (6) has shown the fastest early speed in this group, described as a “fastest leads” running style with seven career starts producing a 0-1-4 record. Reign It In (7) also shows front-running tendencies. This sets up a potential pace duel between the two, which could benefit a stalking type like Geostoblame (2), who profiles as the “fastest stalker” in the field. Swedish Candy (1) has shown speed in prior starts and could be involved early as well, though at a much lower class level. The one-turn mile should allow the closers a fair chance if the early pace is honest.

Key Contenders

Geostoblame (2) is the consensus top pick from nearly every handicapping source consulted. Trained by Todd Pletcher (17.9% win rate at the meet) with Kendrick Carmouche in the irons (22.7% win rate at the meet), this gelding has the strongest connections in the field. His three career starts show some inconsistency (8th of 8, 6th of 7, 7th of 12), but the Pletcher barn is making a significant class drop here from open maiden special weight company. Handicappers give him a 38 percent win probability, far ahead of the field. The Talking Horses panel, TimeformUS analyst David Aragona, and Racing Dudes all tab Geostoblame (2) as their top pick. The drop in class, combined with his stalking style that should benefit from any early pace duel, makes him the horse to beat. Live odds of 5/1 at the time of this writing represent overlay value compared to his morning line of 6/5.

Big Brooklyn (6) is the deserving second choice. With seven career starts and a 0-1-4 record at this level, he has been extremely consistent without finding the winner's circle. He was second and third in his two most recent starts at one mile on this track. Jose Lezcano (25.2% win rate, second-leading rider at the meet) has the call, which is a significant positive. Big Brooklyn (6) has been running competitive speed figures that put him squarely in the mix, and his “fastest leads” style could benefit if the track plays to speed today. Both Andy Serling and David Aragona place him second behind Geostoblame (2).

Secondary Choices

Reign It In (7) is an interesting contender with a 0-1-2 record from five starts. He was a solid second of 12 in a seven-furlong race at Aqueduct last out, showing early speed and tenacity. His running style as a “fast leads” type fits the track bias, though the outside post in a one-mile race is a disadvantage. Ruben Silvera has the mount (7.8% win rate at the meet), which is a negative compared to the top jockeys. Trainer Charlton Baker has shown a 57.9 percent in-the-money rate despite a low win percentage. Serling ranks Reign It In (7) third in his picks.

Charlie Hustle (4) rounds out the contenders with the only in-the-money finish in this group (third of six going one mile here last out). Jaime Rodriguez rides for trainer Jorge R. Abreu, both having solid meet statistics. He profiles as a mid-pack runner who could pick up the pieces if the pace is too hot up front.

Longshots

Swedish Candy (1) at 15/1 on the morning line has four career starts with no earnings above the maiden level and was recently running on turf at Gulfstream Park. The switch back to dirt sprints from Florida turf is a puzzling move. Trapping Hands (5) at 20/1 has only one career start and finished sixth of five in a six-furlong race. Neither offers serious appeal.

Selections

Win: Geostoblame (2)
Place: Big Brooklyn (6)
Show: Reign It In (7)

Betting Strategy: Geostoblame (2) may still offer value if his odds drift above the morning line. An exacta box of 2-6 with a saver on 7 underneath in the trifecta is the play. Use the $1 double keying Geostoblame (2) to spread in Race 2.

Race 2 — Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $32,000

Post Time: 1:42 PM

Six fillies and mares, four years old and up, for a $17,500 claiming tag at 6 1/2 furlongs. A competitive short field where the pace scenario will be crucial.

Pace Analysis

Current Climate (5) and Carolina Smokeshow (1) both show speed tendencies and could engage early from their post positions. Mezcalifornia (3) for George Weaver with Manuel Franco has tactical speed and could press or stalk. With only six runners, the pace may not be overly contentious, which could benefit the one who secures the lead cleanly. The inside bias should favor Carolina Smokeshow (1) from the rail if she can establish position early.

Key Contenders

Carolina Smokeshow (1) gets the top call from Racing Dudes at 4-1 and is the top selection from Andy Serling as well. Trained by Patrick Quick (1 win from 10 starts at the meet) with Omar Hernandez Moreno aboard, she draws the advantageous rail post in a sprint where the inside bias has been dominant. For a horse with speed, the rail in a six-horse field at 6 1/2 furlongs is prime real estate at this meet.

Mezcalifornia (3) ships in for George Weaver (33.3% win rate at the meet, 6 wins from 18 starts) with leading rider Manuel Franco in the irons. The trainer-jockey combination is among the best on the grounds. Weaver has been sharp all winter, and Franco's 21.3 percent win rate and 62.4 percent in-the-money rate lead all riders. Serling ranks Mezcalifornia (3) second.

Truthorconsequence (4) for Brad Cox (27.5% win rate at the meet) with Jaime Rodriguez rates as a strong contender. Cox has been one of the most effective trainers at the winter meet, and this filly drops into a spot where she can be competitive. One algorithmic model gives her a 1.3 expected rating, making her a top-three finisher.

Secondary Choices

Current Climate (5) has class and Linda Rice trained her, which typically means she is well-placed, but at age 8 she may be past her best. Quick Power Nap (2) at 10/1 is an older mare who has been around for a long time and occasionally fires a big race.

Longshots

Another Cleeshay (6) at 20/1 gets the five-pound apprentice weight allowance with Dalila Rivera (6.1% win rate at the meet) for Norman Follett. The weight break is notable, but the overall profile does not inspire confidence.

Selections

Win: Mezcalifornia (3)
Place: Carolina Smokeshow (1)
Show: Truthorconsequence (4)

Betting Strategy: In a short field, exotic payoffs can be limited. Key Mezcalifornia (3) on top in exactas with 1 and 4 underneath, and include in the early Pick 3 and Pick 5 sequences. Carolina Smokeshow (1) is a solid place/show candidate at fair odds.

Race 3 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $28,000

Post Time: 2:13 PM

Seven older geldings go six furlongs for a $10,000 claiming tag. Note that Divine Leader (2) is on the scratch watch with a private vet injury.

Pace Analysis

This is a pace-heavy race with several confirmed speed horses. Prince Of Truth (1), My Man Matty (5), and Tizmarkus (7) all show forwardly placed running styles. If multiple horses contest the early lead, it could set up for a closer. However, given the strong inside/speed bias at Aqueduct this winter, being on or near the pace remains advantageous.

Key Contenders

My Man Matty (5) is the Racing Dudes selection at 4-1, trained by Bruce Levine with Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard. Levine has shown decent in-the-money numbers at the meet. Santana Jr. has been riding at an 11 percent win clip but a strong 45.2 percent in-the-money rate. Serling tabs Canyouhearmerunnin (3) as his top pick here followed by My Man Matty (5).

Emerald Forest (4) is the morning line favorite at 5/2 from one algorithm, drawing post four with the five-pound apprentice allowance from Dalila Rivera. The weight break is significant at this level, and if the rider can save ground from the inside draw, the combination of class and lighter weight could be enough.

Secondary Choices

Prince Of Truth (1) has the advantageous rail draw with Jose Baez riding. Tizmarkus (7) for James Ferraro with Jose Lezcano has competitive recent form and the benefit of the meet's second-leading rider.

Longshots

Scaramanga (6) at 15/1 is lightly regarded by all sources.

Selections

Win: My Man Matty (5)
Place: Emerald Forest (4)
Show: Tizmarkus (7)

Betting Strategy: This is a wide-open claiming sprint. Spread in the trifecta using 5, 4, and 7 on top with 1 and 3 underneath. A good race to key into multi-race bets with multiple horses.

Race 4 — Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $34,000

Post Time: 2:44 PM

A nine-horse field of maiden claimers at one mile for four-year-olds and up with a $20,000 claiming tag. Uncle Barrie (1) is on the scratch watch.

Pace Analysis

There is moderate early speed in this race. Lucky Dragon (5) and Thorsness (2) both show tactical tendencies, while Projectability (7) and Noguchi (3) could also be forwardly placed. The pace is unlikely to be blistering, giving an advantage to horses who can secure early position without expending too much energy. The one-turn mile at Aqueduct rewards horses with tactical speed who can save ground.

Key Contenders

Noguchi (3) is the consensus top pick from multiple sources with a morning line of 5/2. Trained by Linda Rice (meet-leading 26.2% win rate, 43 wins from 164 starts) with Jose Lezcano (25.2% win rate) aboard, this is the most potent trainer-jockey combination in the race. Rice has been dominant throughout the winter meet, and Lezcano consistently delivers with her stock. One algorithm projects Noguchi (3) as the clear expected winner with a 1.0 rating. Serling makes Projectability (7) his top pick here, but places Noguchi (3) third. Racing Dudes has Noguchi (3) on top.

Thorsness (2) for Todd Pletcher with Manuel Franco is a logical contender. The Pletcher-Franco tandem brings top connections, and Pletcher's 17.9 percent win rate at the meet is reliable. One algorithm gives Thorsness (2) a 1.3 expected rating, tying for second.

Secondary Choices

Lucky Dragon (5) at 7/2 has Kendrick Carmouche up for Michael Miceli (17.6% win rate, 64.7% in-the-money at the meet). Miceli has been quietly effective, and Lucky Dragon (5) ties with Thorsness (2) in expected ratings.

Projectability (7) gets the nod from Andy Serling as his top pick in this race at 4/1. Jaime Rodriguez rides for Antonio Arriaga. Rodriguez's solid meet numbers (16.9% win, 44% top 3) give this one a fighting chance.

Longshots

Sports Hero (8) at 8/1 for James Ryerson with Christopher Elliott is an outsider worth watching. Solo Flight (4) and Inonit (9) are both 30/1 on the morning line and difficult to recommend.

Selections

Win: Noguchi (3)
Place: Thorsness (2)
Show: Projectability (7)

Betting Strategy: Key Noguchi (3) in exactas over 2 and 7, and include in the early Pick 5 sequence. Rice-Lezcano entries at this level are typically reliable.

Race 5 — Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $34,000

Post Time: 3:15 PM

A wide ten-horse field of maiden claiming fillies and mares at six furlongs for a $20,000 tag. Tree House (8) is on the scratch watch.

Pace Analysis

There is decent early speed signed on with Houdini's Bride (1) and Celeslia (7) both capable of contesting the pace. My Devine One (3) for William Mott has shown tactical speed in spots. With a full field, the pace could be honest, which would benefit a stalker or closer. Will Of A Womanne (10) is a confirmed closer-type who will be looking for a hot pace to close into.

Key Contenders

Will Of A Womanne (10) is the overwhelming consensus pick across all sources. One analyst describes her as “the most reliable win candidate on the March 1 Aqueduct card”. Trained by Linda Rice with Kendrick Carmouche, she brings the strongest connections in the race. Morning line odds of 7/5 from Racing Dudes and an algorithm expected rating of 1.0 both confirm her status as the one to beat. Her prior six-furlong form on dirt is superior to this field. Andy Serling does not have her on top (he prefers Tree House (8) and then Will Of A Womanne (10) second), but most other handicappers are in agreement.

My Devine One (3) for William Mott (18.5% win rate at the meet) with Jose Lezcano is the clear second choice. Mott trainees at this level typically run well, and Lezcano provides an immediate upgrade in the saddle. One model gives her a 1.5 expected rating.

Secondary Choices

Sassy Sats (4) at 4/1 with Christopher Elliott for Raymond Handal has some appeal as a secondary choice. Serling tabs her as his number four pick.

Celeslia (7) at 8/1 for Paul Barrow with Reylu Gutierrez is a mild price threat.

Longshots

Golden Miracle (5) at 15/1 gets the apprentice weight allowance with Dalila Rivera for Jose Jimenez. Looking At Annie (9) and Pencima (2) are both 30/1 and difficult to use.

Selections

Win: Will Of A Womanne (10)
Place: My Devine One (3)
Show: Sassy Sats (4)

Betting Strategy: Will Of A Womanne (10) profiles as the best single of the card. Use as a key in multi-race wagers, particularly the late Pick 5 or Pick 4. In WPS, she should deliver solid returns at a fair price. Exactas keying 10 over 3 and 4.

Race 6 — Starter Allowance, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $60,000

Post Time: 3:47 PM

A nine-horse field for the starter allowance at one mile with a $60,000 purse, the richest non-stakes race on the card. House United (5) is on the scratch watch.

Pace Analysis

Turn And Count (3) and Oil Capital (6) project as the likely pace setters. Carvellian Quest (1) has the rail and could be involved early. Soda (2) may also show speed. With several speed horses in the field, there is potential for a contested pace that could set up for stalkers and closers. Sergeant Capps (9) could benefit from a pace meltdown scenario.

Key Contenders

Turn And Count (3) is the top-rated horse by multiple algorithms with a 1.0 expected rating. Trained by Thomas Morley with Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard, he draws a good inside post and gets the two-pound weight allowance as a non-winner since September 1, 2025. Andy Serling has Turn And Count (3) as his top pick.

Carvellian Quest (1) is the Racing Dudes top selection at 7/2 with Manuel Franco aboard for Ilkay Kantarmaci. Kantarmaci has been the third-leading trainer at the meet (16.7% wins, 53.7% in-the-money), and Franco is the leading rider. The rail draw is a major advantage given the persistent inside bias. A recent run at Aqueduct on February 5 saw Carvellian Quest (1) finish second at 5.54 to 1, suggesting current form.

Secondary Choices

Sergeant Capps (9) at 4/1 has solid algorithmic support (1.4 expected rating) and runs for Panagiotis Synnefias with Jaime Rodriguez. He would benefit from a pace collapse.

Oil Capital (6) for Linda Rice with Kendrick Carmouche always demands respect given the trainer's dominance at the meet. Rice's 26.2 percent win rate is the best on the grounds. Serling ranks him fourth in this spot.

Longshots

Blown Cover (7) at 8/1 for Rudy Rodriguez with Ruben Silvera has some in-the-money potential. Rock The Weekend (8) at 30/1 is a toss.

Selections

Win: Turn And Count (3)
Place: Carvellian Quest (1)
Show: Oil Capital (6)

Betting Strategy: This race sets up as the start of the late Pick 4 or Pick 5 sequences. Spread wide here given the competitive nature of the field. In exactas, use 3 and 1 on top with 9 and 6 underneath.

Race 7 — Correction Stakes, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $135,000

Post Time: 4:19 PM

The featured race of the day, the $135,000 Correction Stakes for fillies and mares four years old and upward at six furlongs on the dirt. Seven entered, though Hold Your Breath (1) and On Command (5) are on the scratch watch and may not run.

Pace Analysis

This race has significant pace implications. Hold Your Breath (1), if she runs, is a confirmed front-runner who set splits of 22.93 and 46.07 in the Garland of Roses. Lucille Ball (4) wired her field last out and would likely contest the early pace. If both show up, the early pace could be torrid, setting up perfectly for stalking types like With The Angels (7) and Sunday Girl (6). If Hold Your Breath (1) scratches, Lucille Ball (4) may get a soft lead, which would make her very dangerous.

Key Contenders

With The Angels (7) is the deserving favorite in this spot. The Omaha Beach filly has never missed the board in eight career starts and enters from a dominant 3 1/2-length victory on January 22, sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:17.68 under returning rider Jose Lezcano. Trainer Linda Rice indicated that With The Angels (7) prefers to sit off the pace and make a run, making her ideal for a contested pace scenario. Rice is using this as a steppingstone to the Grade 3 Distaff on April 4. Lezcano has the call from the outside post 7, which should allow him to settle her in a comfortable stalking position. Handicappers across the board rate her as the top pick or close to it, with one YouTube handicapper making her a top selection in the superfecta. Her 89 Beyer from the Garland of Roses is competitive, and she has room to improve. The algorithm gives her the lowest expected rating at 1.0.

Lucille Ball (4) brings the highest Beyer in the field, a monstrous 103 earned for a 10 1/4-length demolition of an allowance field on January 2, setting the pace in 1:17.27. The Lord Nelson filly has won both of her career starts impressively when she gets away cleanly. However, she was a disastrous last-of-4 in the seven-furlong Interborough on February 6 after a very slow start left her trailing from the gate. That single work since (48.62 over a half-mile) raises fitness questions. Manuel Franco rides, and if she breaks cleanly and controls the pace, she has the raw talent to win this. Racing Dudes has Lucille Ball (4) as their top pick, and Andy Serling tabs her first.

Secondary Choices

Sunday Girl (6) is the defending Correction winner and brings three stakes victories to this spot. Trained by David Duggan (31.2% win rate at the meet), she has been working sharply, including a bullet half-mile in 46.60 on February 12. Her last race in the Garland of Roses produced a troubled fourth after being bumped at the start and steadied. Duggan says she is training well enough to “be right there”. Katie Davis has the mount. At 6/1, she offers value if her trip is cleaner today.

My Lil Punky (2) at 10/1 is dual stakes-placed and gets Ricardo Santana Jr. for Cherie DeVaux. She is a price play in the exotics.

Longshots

Alani (3) at 12/1 for Michael Moore with Andy Hernandez is the longest shot in the field and would need significant improvement to be competitive. On Command (5) is on the scratch watch and may not even start.

Selections

Win: With The Angels (7)
Place: Lucille Ball (4)
Show: Sunday Girl (6)

Betting Strategy: This is the race to attack in the exotics. If Hold Your Breath (1) scratches, Lucille Ball (4) becomes more dangerous on the lead. Key With The Angels (7) in exactas and trifectas. A $1 exacta box of 7-4 with a 50-cent trifecta keying 7 over 4,6,2 is a solid structure. Include Sunday Girl (6) underneath in the trifecta for value. For the 10-cent superfecta, use 7-4-6-2 in various combinations.

Race 8 — Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $42,000

Post Time: 4:52 PM

The finale is a maiden claiming event for three-year-old fillies bred in New York, going one mile for a $40,000 tag. An 11-horse field provides opportunities for exotic payoffs.

Pace Analysis

There is moderate early speed with Queen Sally (5) and Island Charm (8) both capable of pressing the pace. Icy Legs (7) has shown some speed as well. In a full field of New York-bred maidens, the pace can be unpredictable, but there are enough speed types to suggest an honest tempo.

Key Contenders

Island Charm (8) is the consensus favorite at 2/1 on the morning line. Trained by Brittany Russell (14.3% win rate, 57.1% in-the-money at the meet) with Jaime Rodriguez in the irons, she brings the strongest connections among the contenders. Racing Dudes has her as their top pick. The algorithm gives her a 1.0 expected rating.

Queen Sally (5) for Ralph D'Alessandro with Christopher Elliott rates as the clear second choice with a 1.2 expected rating. D'Alessandro has three wins from 17 starts at the meet. Serling places Queen Sally (5) as his top pick in this race.

Secondary Choices

Grit N Glitter (9) at 6/1 for Mark Hennig with Jose Lezcano has solid connections and some support in the algorithms. Hennig has been steady at the meet with a 37.5 percent in-the-money rate. A prior second-place finish at Aqueduct on February 5 suggests current form.

My First Dinah (2) at 6/1 for Eduardo Jones with Reylu Gutierrez also receives algorithmic support.

Hip Hop Dancer (11) at 20/1 gets the seven-pound apprentice allowance from Dalila Rivera for Ralph D'Alessandro. The lighter weight is notable in a route race for maidens, though the outside post is a disadvantage.

Longshots

Saratoga Sunset (4) and Wayward Queen (1) at 15/1 each offer some intrigue at long odds. Relli's Cruiser (6) at 50/1 is a toss.

Selections

Win: Island Charm (8)
Place: Queen Sally (5)
Show: Grit N Glitter (9)

Betting Strategy: The finale is a full field of maidens, making it ideal for exotic wagering. Trifecta and superfecta structures keying 8 and 5 on top with 9, 2, and 11 underneath should cover the most likely outcomes. For the Pick 4 or Pick 5 ending here, spread in this race.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Manuel Franco leads all riders at the Aqueduct winter meet with 38 wins from 178 starts, a 21.3 percent win rate, and a dominant 62.4 percent in-the-money rate. He rides Mezcalifornia (3) in Race 2 and Carvellian Quest (1) in Race 6. When Franco is aboard, he demands respect regardless of the odds, and his mounts today are among the more logical contenders on the card.

Jose Lezcano ranks second at the meet with 31 wins from 123 starts and an elite 25.2 percent win rate. His 60.2 percent in-the-money rate is outstanding. He has key mounts today including Big Brooklyn (6) in Race 1, Noguchi (3) in Race 4, My Devine One (3) in Race 5, and most importantly With The Angels (7) in the Correction Stakes. The Lezcano-Rice combination has been one of the most profitable partnerships at the meet.

Kendrick Carmouche sits fifth in the standings with 22 wins from 97 starts and a 22.7 percent win rate. He rides Geostoblame (2) in Race 1 for Pletcher, Will Of A Womanne (10) in Race 5, Oil Capital (6) in Race 6, and potentially Hold Your Breath (1) in Race 7 if she runs. His aggressive riding style fits well with the current inside bias.

Jaime Rodriguez ranks third in wins (28) from 166 starts. He has a busy card today with mounts in multiple races including Charlie Hustle (4) in Race 1, Truthorconsequence (4) in Race 2, Projectability (7) in Race 4, On Command (5) in Race 7, and Island Charm (8) in Race 8.

Ricardo Santana Jr. has 8 wins from 73 starts (11.0%) but a useful 45.2 percent in-the-money rate. He rides My Man Matty (5) in Race 3, Solo Flight (4) in Race 4, My Lil Punky (2) in Race 7, Icy Legs (7) in Race 8, and Turn And Count (3) in Race 6.

Dalila Rivera carries the five-pound apprentice weight allowance and has 3 wins from 49 starts (6.1%). She rides in Races 3, 5, and 8, and the weight break at this lower class level should not be ignored, particularly in Race 8 aboard Hip Hop Dancer (11).

Trainer Notes and Insights

Linda Rice dominates the Aqueduct winter meet with 43 wins from 164 starts (26.2%) and a 61.6 percent in-the-money rate. She has the highest purse earnings among all trainers. Rice saddles key runners today including Noguchi (3) in Race 4, Will Of A Womanne (10) in Race 5, Oil Capital (6) in Race 6, and the likely favorite With The Angels (7) in the Correction. Rice recently posted a five-win day at Aqueduct on January 22, underscoring her current hot streak. Her runners command automatic respect at every level.

Todd Pletcher has 5 wins from 28 starts (17.9%) with a 53.6 percent in-the-money rate at the meet. He sends out Geostoblame (2) in Race 1, a significant class drop that fits his pattern of placing horses optimally. Pletcher trainees making their first start in maiden claiming after competing in maiden special weight company are a positive wagering angle.

Brad Cox brings an efficient 27.5 percent win rate from 40 starts this meet. He saddles Truthorconsequence (4) in Race 2, and his entries consistently run to their morning line or better.

George Weaver has been one of the sharpest barns this winter with 6 wins from just 18 starts (33.3%). His representative Mezcalifornia (3) in Race 2 deserves serious consideration simply based on the trainer's current form.

Chris Englehart trains Lucille Ball (4) in the Correction Stakes and has 2 wins from 38 starts (5.3%) at the meet, a notably low percentage. The talent of the individual horse must override the trainer stats here, but the low overall strike rate is a concern for bettors considering Lucille Ball (4) at a short price.

David Duggan trains defending Correction winner Sunday Girl (6) and has been quietly effective with 5 wins from 16 starts (31.2%) at the meet.

Brittany Russell trains Island Charm (8) in Race 8 and has a 14.3 percent win rate with a 57.1 percent in-the-money rate from limited starts. She ships effectively into New York.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The Early Pick 5 covers Races 1 through 5 with a 50-cent minimum. The recommended structure is to single or near-single the strongest plays and spread in the wide-open races. Use Geostoblame (2) in Race 1 as a near-single (include Big Brooklyn (6) as a backup). Spread Races 2 and 3 with three horses each. Key Noguchi (3) in Race 4 with one backup. Single Will Of A Womanne (10) in Race 5 if possible. This ticket structure keeps costs manageable while covering the most likely scenarios.

For the Late Pick 4 (Races 5-8), Will Of A Womanne (10) is the anchor play in Race 5. Spread Race 6 widely. Key With The Angels (7) in Race 7 with Lucille Ball (4) as a backup. Spread Race 8 with at least three horses (8, 5, 9).

The best value play on the card is Sunday Girl (6) in the Correction (Race 7) at 6/1 on the morning line. She is the defending champion with sharp works and a valid excuse in her last start. If Hold Your Breath (1) scratches, the pace dynamic shifts favorably for the closers, and Sunday Girl (6) could surprise at a generous price.

The most reliable win bet on the card is Will Of A Womanne (10) in Race 5. She has the best form, best connections (Rice/Carmouche), and projects as the dominant runner in a field of lesser opponents.

Geostoblame (2) in Race 1 represents a potential overlay if his odds hold above 3-1. The class drop from maiden special weight to maiden claiming for the Pletcher barn is a strong positive angle.

The most playable exotic race is Race 8, where the full field of New York-bred maidens should produce some surprises and potentially large trifecta and superfecta payoffs. Using Island Charm (8) and Queen Sally (5) on top with Grit N Glitter (9), My First Dinah (2), and Hip Hop Dancer (11) underneath provides solid coverage.

Finally, monitor the track condition closely today. If the surface becomes sloppy or muddy and the bias shifts, closers and middle-of-the-track runners gain an edge. Adjust your plays accordingly, particularly in the sprint races (Races 2, 3, 5, and 7) where pace dynamics are most impactful.

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Weather and Track Conditions

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Race 1 — Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $34,000

Post Time: 1:10 PM

Pace Analysis

Key Contenders

Secondary Choices

Longshots

Selections

Race 2 — Claiming, 6 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $32,000

Post Time: 1:42 PM

Pace Analysis

Key Contenders

Secondary Choices

Longshots

Selections

Race 3 — Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $28,000

Post Time: 2:13 PM

Pace Analysis

Key Contenders

Secondary Choices

Longshots

Selections

Race 4 — Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $34,000

Post Time: 2:44 PM

Pace Analysis

Key Contenders

Secondary Choices

Longshots

Selections

Race 5 — Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $34,000

Post Time: 3:15 PM

Pace Analysis

Key Contenders

Secondary Choices

Longshots

Selections

Race 6 — Starter Allowance, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $60,000

Post Time: 3:47 PM

Pace Analysis

Key Contenders

Secondary Choices

Longshots

Selections

Race 7 — Correction Stakes, 6 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $135,000

Post Time: 4:19 PM

Pace Analysis

Key Contenders

Secondary Choices

Longshots

Selections

Race 8 — Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $42,000

Post Time: 4:52 PM

Pace Analysis

Key Contenders

Secondary Choices

Longshots

Selections

Jockey Notes and Insights

Trainer Notes and Insights

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

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