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We have an exciting 8-race card on tap featuring a mix of Louisiana-bred quality and open company veterans. The highlight of the afternoon is the 8th race, a high-level allowance optional claimer for state-bred sprinters that features some familiar stakes-tested names. With the meet winding down, connections are looking to capitalize on these final opportunities, so expect aggressive riding and competitive fields.
Weather and Track Conditions
Forecast: New Orleans is expecting a picturesque early spring day. The forecast calls for partly cloudy skies with a high near 72°F (22°C) and a low around 58°F. Humidity will be moderate at 60%, with a light breeze from the south at 5-10 mph. Track Surface:
- Dirt: Fast. The main track has been playing quick and fair this week.
- Turf: Firm. With no significant rain in the last 48 hours, the Stall-Wilson turf course should be firm and conducive to fast times.
Track Bias Analysis
- Dirt Sprints (5.5F – 6F): The Fair Grounds dirt oval has shown a distinct bias toward early speed in sprints recently. Horses capable of securing the lead or sitting in the “garden spot” just off the pace (within 1-2 lengths) have been winning at a clip of nearly 50%. The rail (Post 1) and inside posts (1-3) are advantageous, winning over 54% of races at this distance.
- Turf Routes (1M – 1 1/16M): The turf course is playing relatively fair, though pace-dependent. While deep closers can win here with a hot pace setup, the recent trend favors horses with tactical speed who can get the first jump turning for home. Avoid horses stuck excessively wide, as ground loss on this tight course is difficult to overcome.
1st Race – Fair Grounds – Sunday, March 1st, 2026
Post Time: 12:45 PM CST
Claiming $15,000 | 6 Furlongs | Dirt | Fillies and Mares 4yo+ | LA Bred
Pace Analysis
This race features a moderate pace scenario. Clearly Credo (2) possesses natural early foot and should vie for the lead from the inside. Mika Ella Pika (5) also has speed and will likely press the issue from the outside. About To Set Sail (1) has tactical speed and can sit the perfect trip from the rail.
Key Contenders
About To Set Sail (1): This 5-year-old mare looks like the one to beat. Drawing the rail is a massive advantage given the current track bias. Trainer Sam B. David Jr. has her in good form, and getting Marcelino Pedroza Jr. in the irons is a significant jockey upgrade. She should save ground and pounce on the leaders turning for home. Clearly Credo (2): She is the likely speed of the race. If she can clear the field early without expending too much energy, she could wire this group. Juan Vargas will need to be aggressive from the gate to hold her position against the outside pressure.
Secondary Choices
Mika Ella Pika (5): A consistent runner who fits well at this level. She will be involved early, but the concern is whether she can withstand a duel with Clearly Credo. If the pace heats up too much, she might fade late, but she is a must-use in exotics. The Pretty Sister (7): The outside post is a challenge, but she offers value as a closer. If the top two get into a speed duel, she will be the one picking up the pieces late under Hunter Rea.
Betting Strategy
The rail horse is the safest play here. A Win bet on About to Set Sail is the primary strategy. An Exacta box of 1-2 is also logical given the speed bias.
Selections
Win: About To Set Sail (1) – 45% confidence Place: Clearly Credo (2) – 30% confidence Show: Mika Ella Pika (5) – 15% confidence Alternative: The Pretty Sister (7) – 10% confidence
2nd Race – Fair Grounds – Sunday, March 1st, 2026
Post Time: 01:15 PM CST
Starter Optional Claiming $30,000 | 6 Furlongs | Dirt | 4yo+
Pace Analysis
Disco Ball (1) and Show Time (6) are the primary speed influences. Guanare (4) has speed but often rates just off the pace. The pace should be honest but not blistering, which sets up well for a class horse stalking the leaders.
Key Contenders
Get Her Number (5): This is a fascinating entry. The 8-year-old gelding is a former Grade 1 winner (American Pharoah Stakes) and has back class that dwarfs this field. While he has lost a step with age, dropping into a Starter Optional Claiming spot is a massive relief in class. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is excellent at placing veterans where they can win. If he has any of his old spark left, he wins this for fun. Disco Ball (1): The 9-year-old veteran loves the rail and knows how to win. Trainer Joe Sharp is having a solid meet, and Ben Curtis is a reliable finisher. He will be sent hard from the break and could play “catch me if you can.”
Secondary Choices
Guanare (4): A solid alternative if the top two falter. He is consistent and usually runs his race. Mitchell Murrill suits his running style well. Aaron (3): Coming off a string of scratches, his form is a question mark, but on his best day, he fits with this group.
Betting Strategy
Get Her Number will likely be overbet due to name recognition, but he is the most likely winner. The value play is an Exacta Straight 5-1, or a Trifecta Key 5 over 1,4,6.
Selections
Win: Get Her Number (5) – 50% confidence Place: Disco Ball (1) – 25% confidence Show: Guanare (4) – 15% confidence Alternative: Show Time (6) – 10% confidence
3rd Race – Fair Grounds – Sunday, March 1st, 2026
Post Time: 01:45 PM CST
Maiden Special Weight | 1 Mile | Turf | LA Bred Fillies and Mares 3yo+
Pace Analysis
Turf routes for maidens often lack established pace. Nova Nova Nova (3) has shown flashes of speed in workouts and might inherit the lead by default. All Star Tout (4) stretches out and could be forwardly placed.
Key Contenders
Provoker (1): Drawing the rail in a turf route is excellent. Trainer Andy Rogers doesn't have the highest win percentage, but this horse has been working steadily. The ground-saving trip is key here. Clearly My Star (8): Trainer Shane Wilson is dangerous with turf maidens. Isaac Castillo takes the mount, which is a positive sign. The post is tricky, but she has the pedigree to handle the surface.
Secondary Choices
Mojane Metal (2): Jareth Loveberry is one of the best turf riders on the grounds. He can work out a trip from the inside post that others can't. It's Just Simple (9): The wide post hurts, but Mitchell Murrill is aggressive. If she can clear the field before the first turn, she has a shot, but she risks getting hung wide.
Betting Strategy
This is a wide-open race. Provoker offers good value from the inside. A Boxed Exacta 1-2-8 is a prudent approach to cover the volatility of state-bred turf maidens.
Selections
Win: Provoker (1) – 25% confidence Place: Clearly My Star (8) – 20% confidence Show: Mojane Metal (2) – 20% confidence Alternative: All Star Tout (4) – 15% confidence
4th Race – Fair Grounds – Sunday, March 1st, 2026
Post Time: 02:15 PM CST
Claiming $5,000 | 1 Mile | Dirt | LA Bred 4yo+
Pace Analysis
A race void of significant speed often favors the horse who decides to go. Hooray Austin (1) has the rail and the experience to control the pace. Totally Addicted (2) will likely sit close.
Key Contenders
Hooray Austin (1): At the $5,000 level, you look for the horse with the fewest question marks. He draws the rail, has Harry Hernandez, and drops to a level where he can dictate terms. He is the logical favorite. Runninginthemoney (6): Trainer David Terre spots this 7-year-old well. He was scratched from a stakes race recently to run here, which signals intent. He is the class of the field but must overcome the weight (124 lbs).
Secondary Choices
Regatta Bay (3): Trainer Jonathan Wong is a high-percentage conditioner. This horse has been inconsistent but fits on speed figures. American Dollars (7): Coming off a vet scratch, so check the tote board. If he takes money, he is live.
Betting Strategy
Hooray Austin is a standout. He is a likely single in multi-race wagers.
Selections
Win: Hooray Austin (1) – 40% confidence Place: Runninginthemoney (6) – 30% confidence Show: Regatta Bay (3) – 15% confidence Alternative: American Dollars (7) – 10% confidence
5th Race – Fair Grounds – Sunday, March 1st, 2026
Post Time: 02:45 PM CST
Claiming $30,000 | 1 1/16 Miles | Turf | Fillies and Mares 4yo+
Pace Analysis
La Reynita (1) has speed and the rail. Mambo Queen (5) ships in for Brittany Russell and likely has tactical speed. This should be a fair pace, allowing stalkers to get first run.
Key Contenders
Mambo Queen (5): Brittany Russell is an exceptional trainer, and shipping into Fair Grounds signals confidence. Ben Curtis is an excellent fit for a horse that needs a tactical ride. She is the class of the field. Saint Nancy S (6): Kenneth McPeek's runners always improve with distance. She was scratched from an allowance race to run here, which makes her a dangerous dropper. Colby Hernandez stays aboard.
Secondary Choices
La Reynita (1): The rail speed. If she is allowed to set slow fractions (24.0, 49.0), she could steal it. Lofty Heights (3): Juan Vargas rides for Steven Duke. A solid closer who will be passing tired horses late.
Betting Strategy
Mambo Queen looks like a solid win bet. Pair her in an Exacta with Saint Nancy S.
Selections
Win: Mambo Queen (5) – 35% confidence Place: Saint Nancy S (6) – 25% confidence Show: La Reynita (1) – 20% confidence Alternative: Lofty Heights (3) – 10% confidence
6th Race – Fair Grounds – Sunday, March 1st, 2026
Post Time: 03:15 PM CST
Starter Optional Claiming $10,000 | 5 1/2 Furlongs | Dirt | 4yo+
Pace Analysis
This is a 5 1/2 furlong sprint, so expect a scorched earth pace. Runnin Munnin (3) and Miss Arlington (7) are extremely fast. Rocketeightyeight (1) will be forced to send from the rail.
Key Contenders
Miss Arlington (7): Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez has this 5-year-old in peak form. The outside post in a sprint allows Mitchell Murrill to see the break and decide whether to lead or stalk. He has the highest recent speed figures. Runnin Munnin (3): Keith Bourgeois is a master with sprinters. This horse is quick, but coming off a vet scratch is a slight concern. If he breaks clean, he is a major threat.
Secondary Choices
Charco (2): Marcelino Pedroza Jr. rides. He will likely sit behind the speed duel and try to close. At 5.5 furlongs, he might run out of ground, but he will be flying late. Briterdayzahead (6): Sofia Vives is a talented apprentice/rider (depending on allowance status). This horse is consistent but needs a meltdown up front.
Betting Strategy
Speed holds up well at 5.5F. We Miss Arlington is the play.
Selections
Win: Miss Arlington (7) – 35% confidence Place: Runnin Munnin (3) – 30% confidence Show: Charco (2) – 20% confidence Alternative: Briterdayzahead (6) – 10% confidence
7th Race – Fair Grounds – Sunday, March 1st, 2026
Post Time: 03:45 PM CST
Maiden Special Weight | 5 1/2 Furlongs | Turf | 3yo+
Pace Analysis
In turf sprints with young horses, panic usually ensues. Start Out (1) and Cool Customer (5) represent top connections and will likely be sent to gain position.
Key Contenders
Start Out (1): Brad Cox + Marcelino Pedroza Jr. on a 3-year-old in a maiden special weight. This is the “power profile.” Even from the rail, Cox's horses are well-schooled and usually break sharply. Expect a top performance. Castle Run (2): Cherie DeVaux is hitting at a high percentage (19%) and excels with turf runners. Axel Concepcion is a strong rider. This 4-year-old has the maturity advantage over the 3-year-olds.
Secondary Choices
Cool Customer (5): Michael Stidham is a very patient trainer who does well with turf sprinters. Sofia Vives is a good fit here. Watch the tote board; if he takes money, he is live. Ice Wolf (6): Gregory Foley is a legendary trainer in this region. This 5-year-old is getting a late start to his career, which is intriguing.
Betting Strategy
Start Out is the likely favorite and the most probable winner. A Win bet is solid, but the value might be in the Exacta 1-2.
Selections
Win: Start Out (1) – 40% confidence Place: Castle Run (2) – 25% confidence Show: Cool Customer (5) – 15% confidence Alternative: Ice Wolf (6) – 10% confidence
8th Race – Fair Grounds – Sunday, March 1st, 2026
Post Time: 04:15 PM CST
Allowance Optional Claiming | 6 Furlongs | Dirt | LA Bred 4yo+
Pace Analysis
Bron And Brow (9) has elite speed but is drawn wide. Sounds Like Power (1) has the rail and must go. Benji Star (6) will press. The pace will be hot.
Key Contenders
Bron And Brow (9): The class of the field. A multiple stakes winner facing allowance company. Despite the wide post and the 7-year-old age, he is simply faster than these. Steven Asmussen and James Graham are a lethal combo. He should clear the field and win. Smash It (3): Brendan Walsh is a top-tier trainer (18% wins). This 4-year-old has upside and could improve. If the favorite falters, he is the heir apparent.
Secondary Choices
Benji Star (6): Michael Stidham's entry is consistent. Pedroza rides, which is always a plus. He will be in the mix for the exotics. Sounds Like Power (1): The rail helps, but he faces massive pressure. He is a candidate to hold on for 3rd or 4th.
Betting Strategy
Bron and Brow is the “Best Bet” of the day. Single him in all horizontal wagers.
Selections
Win: Bron And Brow (9) – 60% confidence Place: Smash It (3) – 20% confidence Show: Benji Star (6) – 10% confidence Alternative: Sounds Like Power (1) – 5% confidence
Jockey Notes and Insights
- Marcelino Pedroza Jr.: He has a loaded card today. His mounts in Race 1 (About to Set Sail) and Race 7 (Start Out) are prime winning chances. He excels at saving ground on the turf, so watch him closely in Race 3 and 7.
- Ben Curtis: A very strong finisher on dirt. His ride on Disco Ball (Race 2) and Mambo Queen (Race 5) will be key. He is riding with high confidence.
- Mitchell Murrill: Known for aggressive gate breaks. His mount We Miss Arlington (Race 6) suits his style perfectly.
Trainer Notes and Insights
- Brad Cox (Race 7): Cox is a dominant force at Fair Grounds (26% win rate). When he unveils a young horse in a turf sprint like Start Out, it is usually ready to fire first time out.
- Robertino Diodoro (Race 2): Watch for the class drop angle with Get Her Number. Diodoro hits at a high clip with claimers and veteran horses dropping in class.
- Steven Asmussen (Race 8): The Hall of Famer brings Bron and Brow in a spot that looks like a paid workout. He rarely misplaces his stakes horses.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The Best Bet: Race 8: Bron And Brow (9). He is the superior animal in the field. A straight Win bet and a key in all Pick 3/Pick 4 wagers.
The Value Play: Race 2: Get Her Number (5). People may fade him due to age (8yo), but his back class is Grade 1 level. At 3-1 or better, he is a steal.
Suggested Late Pick 4 (Races 5-8):
- Race 5: 5, 6
- Race 6: 3, 7
- Race 7: 1, 2, 5
- Race 8: 9
- Ticket Cost: $6.00 (for $0.50 base)
Good luck and good racing!
