Sunland Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the March 1, 2026 card


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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

The card today features nine races with a mix of thoroughbred sprints primarily showcasing New Mexico-bred talent. The feature races include competitive allowance contests in the 4th and 8th races, alongside a solid slate of claiming events that offer excellent betting value. We have a standard 12:25 PM Mountain Time first post. The fields are well-balanced, and with the presence of top local connections like Todd Fincher, Justin Evans, and Casey Lambert, we can expect aggressive riding and sharp performances.

Weather and Track Conditions

The weather for Sunland Park today is forecasted to be warm and pleasant. Expect partly sunny skies with a high temperature reaching 85°F and a low of 51°F. Winds will be blowing from the West at approximately 10 mph. There is a negligible 10% chance of precipitation, so the track is expected to be Fast. The dirt surface at Sunland Park has been playing true, but with the warm temperatures and dry air, the track may tighten up, potentially favoring speed slightly more than usual.

Track Bias

Sunland Park's dirt oval traditionally favors horses with early speed, especially at sprint distances like 5 1/2 and 6 furlongs which dominate today's card. Horses breaking from the inside post positions (1-3) often have a statistical advantage in these shorter sprints, provided they can secure a forward position early. The run into the turn at 6 1/2 furlongs can be tricky for outside runners if they cannot clear the field, so watch for horses in Races 2 and 5 who might get hung wide. In general, look for contenders who can establish position within two lengths of the lead by the quarter pole.

Race 1 Analysis

Pace Analysis

The day begins with a 6-furlong sprint for maiden 3-year-old fillies. This race features a likely moderate pace. Pearlofgreatprice from the rail may be forced to send to protect position, but Tiz Grace on the outside has shown flashes of early foot. Lucinda Who has tactical speed and should sit a perfect trip just off the leaders.

Key Contenders

Tiz Grace (6) arrives from the Justin Evans barn, a high-percentage outfit at this meet. With Luis Valenzuela in the irons, this filly has the outside draw which allows her to see the field and make a move when ready. Her form figures suggest she is the one to beat if she breaks clean.

Lucinda Who (5) is the main danger. Trainer Joel Marr is excellent with young horses, and Ken Tohill is a veteran rider who knows this track intimately. She has shown consistency in her morning works and should be right in the mix at the wire.

Secondary Choices

Pearlofgreatprice (1) gets the rail and could improve in her second or third start. Aldo Arboleda will likely try to save ground and hope for a gap in the stretch.

Longshots

Dash N Cash (2) could pick up the pieces if the pace collapses, but she will need to improve significantly on her speed figures to challenge the top two.

Selections

Win: Tiz Grace (6) – 35% confidence Place: Lucinda Who (5) – 30% confidence Show: Pearlofgreatprice (1) – 15% confidence Alternative: Canneihaveadrink (4) – 10% confidence

Race 2 Analysis

Pace Analysis

This 6 1/2-furlong claiming event for fillies and mares should have a contentious pace. Lone Mountain Girl from the inside and Methods from the middle of the pack both possess early speed. Expect them to duel early, which could set the table for a stalker.

Key Contenders

Methods (4) looks like the speed of the speed. Trainer Dick Cappellucci has Luis Negron aboard, and that combination is lethal at Sunland. If she clears the field early, she may never look back.

In Spite Of It (5) represents the Joel Marr stable. She likely won't be as fast early as Methods but has the class to stalk and pounce. Miguel Fuentes Jr. will look to keep her in the clear and make a run on the turn.

Secondary Choices

Lone Mountain Girl (1) draws the rail and must go. If Methods stumbles or is slow away, Lone Mountain Girl becomes a serious wire-to-wire threat.

Longshots

Hook Em Up (6) could provide value underneath in exotics. Casey Lambert's entries often outperform their odds, and if the pace heats up too much, she could be the beneficiary.

Selections

Win: Methods (4) – 40% confidence Place: In Spite Of It (5) – 25% confidence Show: Lone Mountain Girl (1) – 20% confidence Alternative: Hook Em Up (6) – 10% confidence

Race 3 Analysis

Pace Analysis

A 5 1/2-furlong dash for maiden claimers. The short distance demands speed. My Kentucky Chrome and Texas Tech Legs will likely vie for the lead. The pace should be brisk.

Key Contenders

Michiga (3) is the pick here. Casey Lambert trains and Luis Negron rides. This horse has shown signs of talent that fits well at this reduced claiming level. The post position is ideal to track the inside speed.

Haddonfield (5) is another Lambert entrant, with Alfredo Juarez Jr. aboard. The blinkers on (noted by the 'b' in some past performances or implied equipment changes for young horses) can sharpen focus.

Secondary Choices

Texas Tech Legs (6) has early speed potential. Greg Green is a capable trainer, and if this filly breaks sharply, she could steal it on the front end.

Longshots

My Kentucky Chrome (1) is the third Lambert runner. The rail draw is a double-edged sword; she saves ground but risks getting buried if she doesn't break well.

Selections

Win: Michiga (3) – 30% confidence Place: Haddonfield (5) – 25% confidence Show: Texas Tech Legs (6) – 20% confidence Alternative: My Kentucky Chrome (1) – 15% confidence

Race 4 Analysis

Pace Analysis

This allowance race at 5 1/2 furlongs features New Mexico-breds. Vanishing Money has blazing speed and will likely send hard from the rail. Fort Sumner on the outside also has speed, ensuring a fast opening quarter.

Key Contenders

Fort Sumner (6) is a standout. Trained by Justin Evans and ridden by Luis Valenzuela, this gelding has the tactical versatility to sit off Vanishing Money and pass him in the lane. His recent form has been sharp.

Vanishing Money (1) is the primary threat. If he clears the field from the rail, Alfredo Juarez Jr. might be able to slow down the fractions and nurse him home. The concern is the pressure from the outside.

Secondary Choices

Cowboy Campfire (4) is a consistent runner for Greg Green. He might not have the raw speed of the top two but is a reliable exotic filler who picks up checks.

Longshots

Chance Of Snow (3) gets a weight break with the apprentice allowance or light assignment (116 lbs). This weight advantage could be crucial in the final furlong.

Selections

Win: Fort Sumner (6) – 45% confidence Place: Vanishing Money (1) – 30% confidence Show: Cowboy Campfire (4) – 15% confidence Alternative: Chance Of Snow (3) – 5% confidence

Race 5 Analysis

Pace Analysis

In this 6 1/2-furlong claiming race, expect a scramble for the lead. Strike the Senses and Sapello Sweetee have early foot. The pace should be honest, potentially aiding a horse who can rate.

Key Contenders

Sophisticat (2) looks poised to strike. Ken Tohill rides for Arturo Chavez. This mare has faced tougher company and should appreciate the class relief and the claiming tag. She can stalk the leaders and grind them down.

Strike The Senses (4) has speed and is trained by Bart Hone. If she can control the pace without expending too much energy, she is dangerous.

Secondary Choices

Sapello Sweetee (1) has the rail and Miguel Perez. She will be part of the early pace picture but must avoid a duel with Strike the Senses to survive the distance.

Longshots

My Yellowstone (6) usually offers good odds. If the top choices tire, she has the closing kick to hit the board at a price.

Selections

Win: Sophisticat (2) – 35% confidence Place: Strike The Senses (4) – 25% confidence Show: Sapello Sweetee (1) – 20% confidence Alternative: My Yellowstone (6) – 10% confidence

Race 6 Analysis

Pace Analysis

A 5 1/2-furlong sprint for older mares. Marksalot and Forty Five are the speed influences. This race sets up for a stalker if the pace gets too hot, but often in these lower-level claimers, the fastest horse simply wins.

Key Contenders

Marksalot (2) is the clear horse to beat. Trained by Todd Fincher and ridden by Tanner Fincher, this filly likely drops in class or finds a spot where her natural speed is superior. The Fincher barn is dominant in these spots.

Forty Five (4) is the logical alternative. Trained by Casey Lambert with Ken Tohill up, she fits well here on speed figures and class.

Secondary Choices

Silver Abstract (8) draws the outside, which is a safe spot to stay out of trouble. If the inside horses get bottled up, she can sweep by.

Longshots

Street Mark (6) adds Luis Negron, which is a significant jockey upgrade. Watch the tote board for smart money moving here.

Selections

Win: Marksalot (2) – 50% confidence Place: Forty Five (4) – 25% confidence Show: Silver Abstract (8) – 15% confidence Alternative: Street Mark (6) – 5% confidence

Race 7 Analysis

Pace Analysis

This $25,000 claiming event is one of the classier races on the card. Diabolical Storm is a legitimate stakes-quality horse dropping in for a tag or running in an open condition. The pace will be swift with horses like Lariat and Risky Revenge involved.

Key Contenders

Diabolical Storm (9) is strictly the class of the field. Trained by Todd Fincher and ridden by Luis Valenzuela, this veteran campaigner has back class that far exceeds this group. Even if he has lost a step, his “B” game should be good enough to beat this field.

Risky Revenge (10) draws the far outside. Tracy Hebert is a cagey veteran rider. If Diabolical Storm falters, Risky Revenge is the most likely to capitalize.

Secondary Choices

Sambas Mark (6) is another Fincher entry. It is often wise to box Fincher entries in New Mexico. Oscar Andrade Jr. takes the mount, and this horse could be the value play if the public over-bets Diabolical Storm.

Longshots

Lariat (9) has big early speed. If he can clear the field, he might get brave, but the presence of other speed makes his task difficult. Note: Post 7, labeled Lariat.

Selections

Win: Diabolical Storm (9) – 60% confidence Place: Risky Revenge (10) – 20% confidence Show: Sambas Mark (6) – 10% confidence Alternative: Lariat (7) – 5% confidence

Race 8 Analysis

Pace Analysis

An allowance sprint at 6 furlongs. Mama Was a Rocket is a known quantity with immense talent. The pace will go through her and Bye Bye Holley.

Key Contenders

Mama Was A Rocket (5) is a star in the making or a proven commodity depending on her current campaign. A Todd Fincher trainee with Luis Valenzuela, she possesses a devastating turn of foot. She is a single in multi-race wagers.

Bye Bye Holley (1) is the stablemate also trained by Fincher. Guillermo Rodriguez rides. The Fincher exacta is a very probable outcome here.

Secondary Choices

Honky Tonk Honey (4) trained by Simon Buechler has shown consistency. She will likely be running on late to pick up a minor share.

Longshots

Ms. Pounds (6) represents the Greg Green barn. She would need a career-best effort to topple the Fincher duo, but stranger things have happened in racing.

Selections

Win: Mama Was A Rocket (5) – 65% confidence Place: Bye Bye Holley (1) – 20% confidence Show: Honky Tonk Honey (4) – 10% confidence Alternative: Ms. Pounds (6) – 5% confidence

Race 9 Analysis

Pace Analysis

The nightcap is a bottom-level claimer at 5 1/2 furlongs. These races are often chaotic. Call Me Hollywood and American Red should be forwardly placed.

Key Contenders

Call Me Hollywood (2) looks like the safest play in a tricky race. Another Todd Fincher trainee, ridden by Tanner Fincher. The drop to this level signals intent to win.

American Red (6) gets Luis Negron. That jockey booking alone makes this horse a contender. Expect an aggressive ride from the gate.

Secondary Choices

Handmedown D'oro (3) has been scratched recently or had interrupted form, but if he runs, he fits on numbers. Kevin Carmona takes the mount.

Longshots

Lika Dagger (5) could blow up the tote board. Trained by Ever Olguin, this horse has had trouble in the past but finds a soft spot here.

Selections

Win: Call Me Hollywood (2) – 35% confidence Place: American Red (6) – 30% confidence Show: Handmedown D'oro (3) – 20% confidence Alternative: Lika Dagger (5) – 10% confidence

Jockey Notes and Insights

Luis Valenzuela is the rider to watch today. He is booked on several live mounts for the top barns (Evans, Fincher). When he is on a speed horse, he is very difficult to pass. Expect him to have a multi-win day, particularly in Races 1, 4, 7, and 8.

Luis Negron continues to be a force at Sunland Park. His aggressive style fits the track bias perfectly. Look for him to send his mounts hard from the gate. He is especially dangerous on Methods (Race 2) and Michiga (Race 3).

Tanner Fincher riding for his father Todd Fincher is a high-percentage angle. They team up in Race 6 and Race 9. These horses are often well-prepared and spotted aggressively.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Todd Fincher dominates the New Mexico bred ranks. His horses in Races 6, 7, 8, and 9 are all major contenders. A “Fincher Pick 4” starting in Race 6 is a viable strategy.

Justin Evans is the other powerhouse. He excels with claimers and allowance horses. His entry of Fort Sumner in Race 4 looks particularly strong. Evans and Valenzuela teaming up is a 25%+ win proposition.

Joel Marr is a trainer to respect, particularly with fillies and mares. His entries in Race 1 (Lucinda Who) and Race 2 (In Spite of It) should not be ignored.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The Best Bet: Race 8 – Mama Was A Rocket (5). She stands out on class and connections. She is a likely single for the Late Pick 5 and Pick 4.

The Value Play: Race 3 – Michiga (3). In a wide-open maiden claimer, getting Luis Negron on a Casey Lambert horse at what should be 3-1 or 4-1 is excellent value.

Exotic Strategy:

  • Daily Double (Races 7-8): 9 / 5. A cold double using the two Fincher standouts, Diabolical Storm and Mama Was a Rocket.
  • Pick 3 (Races 6-8): 2,4 / 9 / 1,5. Focus on the Fincher runners but protect with the second choices in legs 1 and 3.

Wagering Angle: Focus on the “Fincher/Evans” nexus. In races where these two trainers have the favorites, the exacta box is often the safest and most profitable route. Avoid trying to beat them with deep closers today, as the track bias and pace scenarios favor their aggressive styles.

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