★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (4) Trip note from last race: Prompted foe;faltered.
Mod1(W): 64 (2/5) Mod2(W): 76 (2/5) Mod3(W): 60 (2/5) Mod1-LS: 71 (2/5) Mod2-LS: 73 (2/5) Mod3-LS: 60 (3/5) Mod4(Form): 81 (2/5) Win Prob: 67.3% Value Score: 2.98 ★ ML: 2.50 (3/2) Overlay %: -5.91 Fair Odds: 5.00 (4/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | F |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | B | F |
| Finish Pos | C | A |
| Dirt Speed | B | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | B | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | F |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | B | F |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Career-best speed figure (24) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (2) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (3) Carries 10 lbs less than field median (114 lbs vs median 124 lbs). (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Closer in Pace Duel, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Speed average (24) well below field median (44). (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Stumble;lost rider. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 27 days since last race.
Mod1(W): 8 (5/5) Mod2(W): 0 Mod3(W): 12 (4/5) Mod1-LS: 33 (5/5) Mod2-LS: 0 Mod3-LS: 45 (5/5) Mod4(Form): 10 (4/5) Win Prob: 32.1% Value Score: 3.65 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 7.89 Fair Odds: 5.00 (4/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Finish Pos | C | A |
| Dirt Speed | F | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 56-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Dropping in class today ($25,000 → $16,000). (3) Career-best speed figure (33) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) 4 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (5) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 49 vs field 42). (6) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (7) Consistent workout spacing (8, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (8) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (9) Dropping in class ($16,000 vs last $25,000) after a 56-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Class Drop After Rest, Late Kick Advantage, Closer in Pace Duel, Class Drop, Sharp Gate Work, Sharp Workout Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 56 days. (2) Speed average (33) well below field median (44). (3) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (4) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (5) Trip note from last race: Green start; wide.
Mod1(W): 0 Mod2(W): 1 (5/5) Mod3(W): 0 Mod1-LS: 42 (4/5) Mod2-LS: 4 (5/5) Mod3-LS: 45 (4/5) Mod4(Form): 0 Win Prob: 34.4% Value Score: 4.79 ★ ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 9.48 Fair Odds: 5.00 (4/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | A | F |
| Finish Pos | C | A |
| Dirt Speed | D | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | F | C |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | A | F |
| Sprint FPS | F | D |
| Route FPS | F | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($25,000 → $16,000). (2) Career-best speed figure (44) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Equipment change today (code: 2). (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Class Drop, Equipment Change.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Spd btw;duel ins;wknd.
Mod1(W): 31 (4/5) Mod2(W): 21 (4/5) Mod3(W): 11 (5/5) Mod1-LS: 53 (3/5) Mod2-LS: 19 (4/5) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod4(Form): 10 (5/5) Win Prob: 31.5% Value Score: 3.59 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 7.89 Fair Odds: 5.00 (4/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | F |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | F |
| Finish Pos | C | A |
| Dirt Speed | B | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | B | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | F |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | F |
| Sprint FPS | B | A |
| Route FPS | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($25,000 → $16,000). (2) Career-best speed figure (41) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (58%). (4) Carries 5 lbs less than field median (119 lbs vs median 124 lbs). (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Jockey, Class Drop, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Speed average (34) well below field median (44). (3) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (2 of 3 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Chased;3wd;faltered. (5) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($50,000 → $30,000 → $25,000).
Mod1(W): 53 (3/5) Mod2(W): 32 (3/5) Mod3(W): 45 (3/5) Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 30 (3/5) Mod3-LS: 0 Mod4(Form): 39 (3/5) Win Prob: 58.8% Value Score: 4.46 ★ ML: 5.00 (4/1) Overlay %: 3.50 Fair Odds: 5.00 (4/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | D | F |
| Finish Pos | C | A |
| Dirt Speed | C | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | D | F |
| Sprint FPS | C | A |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($40,000 → $25,000). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (55%). (3) Career-best speed figure (71) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (48%). (5) Fourth race back from a 86-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (6) Last race E1 pace (94.0) was 7.2 pts above personal avg (86.8) and horse still finished 5th — pace collapse victim; expect bounce if today's fractions are softer. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Pace Collapse Victim, Hot Jockey, Hot Trainer, Class Drop, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (4) Today's distance is longer than any previous start. (5) Trip note from last race: Stp slw;4-3wd;mv;even.
Mod1(W): 100 (1/5) Mod2(W): 100 (1/5) Mod3(W): 100 (1/5) Mod1-LS: 95 (2/5) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod3-LS: 68 (2/5) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/5) Win Prob: 76.6% Value Score: 2.54 ★ ML: 1.60 (3/5) Overlay %: -9.40 Fair Odds: 3.80 (3/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | A |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Finish Pos | B | B |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | A | C |
| Distance Speed | C | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Big last-race effort (75) — 16 pts above recent average. (2) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 76 vs field 73). (4) Has won at LRL on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (5) Trainer 'ROBB JOHN J' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'T', 'U', 'V']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Stable on Fire, Bullet Workout, Troubled Trip Comeback, Late Kick Advantage, Won Here Before.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (4) Today's distance is longer than any previous start. (5) Trip note from last race: 3wd turn; driving. (6) Last race was career-best speed (75) — bounce risk after peak effort. (7) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.3 pts: [75, 55, 57, 65, 57]) — unpredictable performer.
Mod1(W): 53 (4/5) Mod2(W): 50 (4/5) Mod3(W): 47 (4/5) Mod1-LS: 55 (4/5) Mod2-LS: 50 (4/5) Mod3-LS: 0 Mod4(Form): 44 (4/5) Win Prob: 40.6% Value Score: 3.62 ★ ML: 6.00 (5/1) Overlay %: 3.85 Fair Odds: 5.64 (9/2) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | B | B |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | D | C |
| Distance Speed | C | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | F | C |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | F | D |
| Route FPS | F | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (2) Strong speed 2 back (71), modest dip last out (64) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (3) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Has won at LRL on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (5) Carries 7 lbs less than field median (114 lbs vs median 121 lbs). (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Bullet Workout, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Form Reversal, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Speed average (54) well below field median (65). (3) Trip note from last race: 5wd 1st turn;tired. (4) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.1 pts: [64, 71, 57, 47, 64]) — unpredictable performer.
Mod1(W): 35 (5/5) Mod2(W): 29 (5/5) Mod3(W): 31 (5/5) Mod1-LS: 51 (5/5) Mod2-LS: 29 (5/5) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod4(Form): 25 (5/5) Win Prob: 46% Value Score: 6.45 ★ ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 7.31 Fair Odds: 5.92 (5/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Finish Pos | C | D |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | A | C |
| Distance Speed | C | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (61%). (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 11 wins from 43 starts (26%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (58%). (4) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 78 vs field 73). (5) Has won at LRL on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Carries 5 lbs less than field median (116 lbs vs median 121 lbs). (7) Speed improved +7 pts then +4 pts in last 2 starts (59 → 66 → 70) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (8) Trainer 'NESS JAMIE' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (9) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'L', 'O', 'U']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Form Surge, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Stable on Fire, Hot Jockey, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Late Kick Advantage, Won Here Before, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) First time at today's distance. (2) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (3) Today's distance is longer than any previous start. (4) Trip note from last race: Off duel;angl 5w;mild. (5) Last race was career-best speed (70) — bounce risk after peak effort.
Mod1(W): 71 (3/5) Mod2(W): 74 (3/5) Mod3(W): 74 (3/5) Mod1-LS: 63 (3/5) Mod2-LS: 73 (3/5) Mod3-LS: 21 (5/5) Mod4(Form): 82 (3/5) Win Prob: 74.1% Value Score: 3.78 ★ ML: 3.00 (2/1) Overlay %: -1.71 Fair Odds: 4.58 (7/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | A | A |
| Dirt Speed | D | C |
| Turf Speed | F | D |
| Distance Speed | C | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($50,000 → $25,000). (2) Significantly better on off tracks (off: 80 vs fast: 74). (3) Career-best speed figure (74) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) Strong speed 2 back (80), modest dip last out (72) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'F', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Off-Track Preference, Troubled Trip Comeback, Class Drop, Form Reversal.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Bmp;rate btw;shft out. (4) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.8 pts: [72, 80, 74, 54, 67]) — unpredictable performer. (5) 0 wins from 5 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 99 (2/5) Mod2(W): 92 (2/5) Mod3(W): 93 (2/5) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod2-LS: 90 (2/5) Mod3-LS: 34 (3/5) Mod4(Form): 96 (2/5) Win Prob: 76.7% Value Score: 2.74 ★ ML: 1.80 (4/5) Overlay %: -9.20 Fair Odds: 4.30 (7/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Finish Pos | D | D |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | C | C |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Career-best speed figure (70) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (44%). (3) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 88 vs field 85). (4) Fourth race back from a 76-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'S', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Jockey, Troubled Trip Comeback, Early Speed Edge, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) 0 wins from 4 career starts on off tracks. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 9 recent starts). (3) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 8 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: 3-2w;chased;churn. (5) 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 91 (2/5) Mod2(W): 91 (2/5) Mod3(W): 100 (1/5) Mod1-LS: 58 (3/5) Mod2-LS: 94 (2/5) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod4(Form): 99 (2/5) Win Prob: 70.3% Value Score: 2.66 ★ ML: 2.00 (1/1) Overlay %: -6.55 Fair Odds: 4.02 (3/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — S · Slow
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Finish Pos | F | C |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
✓ Positives:(1) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate.
⚠ Concerns:(1) First-time starter - no previous race record. (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Has never raced on dirt surface.
Mod1(W): 0 Mod2(W): 0 Mod3(W): 0 Mod1-LS: 34 (5/5) Mod2-LS: 0 Mod3-LS: 58 (3/5) Mod4(Form): 0 Win Prob: 25.8% Value Score: 4.24 ★ ML: 12.00 (10/1) Overlay %: 5.23 Fair Odds: 7.82 (7/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — S · Slow
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | F | F |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Sprint FPS | F | F |
| Route FPS | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 35-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (44%). (3) Career-best speed figure (66) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 35 days. (2) Rising in class today ($25,000 → $40,000). (3) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (4) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: 3wd; mild rally. (6) Stepping up to $40,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $25,000).
Mod1(W): 44 (4/5) Mod2(W): 42 (5/5) Mod3(W): 34 (5/5) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod2-LS: 41 (5/5) Mod3-LS: 41 (5/5) Mod4(Form): 18 (5/5) Win Prob: 34.6% Value Score: 3.93 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 6.87 Fair Odds: 5.38 (9/2) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — S · Slow
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | C | D |
| Route FPS | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Big last-race effort (73) — 11 pts above recent average. (2) Speed improved +7 pts then +11 pts in last 2 starts (55 → 62 → 73) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (3) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'L', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (4) Averages 68.7 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 56.5 in other configs (6 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Form Surge, Troubled Trip Comeback, Return to Proven Setup.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 7 recent starts). (2) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Outs wnnr;left ld;game. (4) Last race was career-best speed (73) — bounce risk after peak effort. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 28 days since last race. (6) 0 wins from 7 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface. (7) Two consecutive 5+ pt speed jumps (55 → 62 → 73) and last race speed is well above career average (66) — high bounce risk after back-to-back peak efforts.
Mod1(W): 76 (3/5) Mod2(W): 65 (3/5) Mod3(W): 71 (3/5) Mod1-LS: 46 (4/5) Mod2-LS: 70 (3/5) Mod3-LS: 54 (4/5) Mod4(Form): 58 (4/5) Win Prob: 51% Value Score: 3.54 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: 3.59 Fair Odds: 4.55 (7/2) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — S · Slow
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | A | C |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (41%). (2) Career-best speed figure (75) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (33%). (4) Dropping in class ($40,000 vs last $50,000) after a 37-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (5) Carries 7 lbs less than field median (117 lbs vs median 124 lbs). (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Class Drop After Rest, Troubled Trip Comeback, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 37 days. (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Chased;drftd out 1/8.
Mod1(W): 14 (5/5) Mod2(W): 40 (4/5) Mod3(W): 34 (4/5) Mod1-LS: 96 (2/5) Mod2-LS: 41 (4/5) Mod3-LS: 55 (3/5) Mod4(Form): 12 (5/5) Win Prob: 25.4% Value Score: 2.92 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 7.96 Fair Odds: 5.00 (4/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — S · Slow
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | F |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | C | A |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | C | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | C | D |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'F', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'U', 'V']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). (2) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 6 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Bump;4-3w outs foe;evn. (4) 0 wins from 6 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 100 (1/5) Mod2(W): 100 (1/5) Mod3(W): 100 (2/5) Mod1-LS: 75 (2/5) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod3-LS: 96 (2/5) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/5) Win Prob: 73.5% Value Score: 2.59 ★ ML: 1.80 (4/5) Overlay %: -8.53 Fair Odds: 4.05 (3/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — S · Slow
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | A | B |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (44%). (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 2 wins from 7 starts (29%). (3) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 91 vs field 82). (4) Strong speed 2 back (77), modest dip last out (69) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['L', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Form Reversal, Early Speed Edge.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($5,000 → $12,500). (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). (4) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 7 starts). (5) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (3 of 4 starts). (6) Trip note from last race: 3w-pursuit1/4;willing. (7) Rising in class ($5,000 → $12,500) after finishing 3 last out — double negative.
Mod1(W): 100 (2/5) Mod2(W): 100 (1/5) Mod3(W): 100 (1/5) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod3-LS: 86 (2/5) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/5) Win Prob: 76.2% Value Score: 2.61 ★ ML: 2.00 (1/1) Overlay %: -9.84 Fair Odds: 4.16 (3/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | A |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | A | C |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) In the money in last 3 consecutive starts. (2) Fourth race back from a 56-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (3) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S', 'V']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Consistent In-The-Money, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($5,000 → $12,500). (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Speed average (58) well below field median (66). (4) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (3 of 4 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Vied ins3/8;willingly. (6) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (7) Last race was career-best speed (66) — bounce risk after peak effort. (8) No workout in last 30 days despite 16 days since last race. (9) Rising in class ($5,000 → $12,500) after finishing 3 last out — double negative. (10) Stepping up to $12,500 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $5,000). (11) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 11.0 pts: [66, 66, 66, 46, 46]) — unpredictable performer. (12) First start at LRL — never raced here before (last seen at: CT).
Mod1(W): 5 (5/5) Mod2(W): 2 (5/5) Mod3(W): 14 (5/5) Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 0 Mod3-LS: 77 (3/5) Mod4(Form): 10 (5/5) Win Prob: 19.4% Value Score: 3.54 ★ ML: 15.00 (15/1) Overlay %: 7.26 Fair Odds: 6.85 (6/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Finish Pos | A | C |
| Dirt Speed | F | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 37-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (58%). (3) Dropping in class ($12,500 vs last $15,000) after a 37-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (4) Career-best figure (78) buried in races 4–10 back — 12 pts above race median and 11 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Class Drop After Rest, Hot Jockey, Hidden Figure.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 37 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) 0 wins from 4 career starts on off tracks. (4) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 9 recent starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Stalk 2wd;gave way. (6) Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. (7) 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 77 (4/5) Mod2(W): 68 (4/5) Mod3(W): 64 (4/5) Mod1-LS: 50 (5/5) Mod2-LS: 68 (4/5) Mod3-LS: 16 (5/5) Mod4(Form): 66 (3/5) Win Prob: 52% Value Score: 3.26 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: 1.76 Fair Odds: 4.65 (7/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Finish Pos | D | D |
| Dirt Speed | C | B |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | C | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | C | D |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 37-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (51%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (48%). (4) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (5) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 76 vs field 71). (6) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (7) Dropping in class ($12,500 vs last $15,000) after a 37-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (8) Returning from 37-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (9) Trainer 'MAGEE KIERON' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (10) Career-best figure (80) buried in races 4–10 back — 14 pts above race median and 7 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (11) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'L', 'O', 'S']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (12) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Class Drop After Rest, Sharp Return Workout, Stable on Fire, Hidden Figure, Hot Trainer, Bullet Workout, Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Troubled Trip Comeback, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 37 days. (2) 0 wins from 5 career starts on off tracks. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 10 recent starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Angld 4w;closed for 3d. (5) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (6) Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. (7) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 12.4 pts: [71, 46, 73, 75, 75]) — unpredictable performer. (8) 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 100 (1/5) Mod2(W): 95 (2/5) Mod3(W): 92 (2/5) Mod1-LS: 77 (2/5) Mod2-LS: 94 (2/5) Mod3-LS: 0 Mod4(Form): 98 (2/5) Win Prob: 69.3% Value Score: 2.37 ★ ML: 2.00 (1/1) Overlay %: -10.59 Fair Odds: 4.37 (7/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | C | D |
| Dirt Speed | A | B |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | F | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 37-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 87 vs field 82). (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Strong speed 2 back (72), modest dip last out (67) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (5) Carries 7 lbs less than field median (115 lbs vs median 122 lbs). (6) Career-best figure (77) buried in races 4–10 back — 11 pts above race median and 5 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'S']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Troubled Trip Comeback, Hidden Figure, Closer in Pace Duel, Form Reversal, Early Speed Edge, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 37 days. (2) 0 wins from 5 career starts on off tracks. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (4) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 7 starts). (5) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (3 of 5 starts). (6) Trip note from last race: Asked 3w;weakened. (7) 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 99 (3/5) Mod2(W): 73 (3/5) Mod3(W): 85 (3/5) Mod1-LS: 60 (4/5) Mod2-LS: 73 (3/5) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod4(Form): 65 (4/5) Win Prob: 55.6% Value Score: 3.49 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: 2.52 Fair Odds: 4.42 (7/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | B | B |
| Turf Speed | B | C |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 2 wins from 5 starts (40%). (2) Career-best speed figure (71) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Showed fighting spirit in last race — maiden angle (trip: Rallied inside;). (5) Carries 7 lbs less than field median (117 lbs vs median 124 lbs). (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Career-Best Recent Figure, Troubled Trip Comeback, Closer in Pace Duel, Weight Advantage, Came Again in Maiden.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Trip note from last race: Rallied inside;. (2) No workout in last 30 days despite 28 days since last race.
Mod1(W): 61 (3/6) Mod2(W): 61 (3/6) Mod3(W): 89 (2/6) Mod1-LS: 56 (5/6) Mod2-LS: 62 (3/6) Mod3-LS: 40 (5/6) Mod4(Form): 84 (2/6) Win Prob: 62.9% Value Score: 3.21 ★ ML: 3.00 (2/1) Overlay %: -3.19 Fair Odds: 5.10 (4/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | C | D |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($50,000 → $25,000). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (51%). (3) Big last-race effort (65) — 13 pts above recent average. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (48%). (5) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (6) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (7) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (8) Trainer 'MAGEE KIERON' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Stable on Fire, Bullet Workout, Hot Jockey, Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel, Class Drop, Sharp Workout Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Speed average (55) well below field median (66). (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (4) Trip note from last race: Outrun; 6wd upper.
Mod1(W): 32 (4/6) Mod2(W): 32 (4/6) Mod3(W): 38 (4/6) Mod1-LS: 24 (6/6) Mod2-LS: 31 (4/6) Mod3-LS: 26 (6/6) Mod4(Form): 29 (4/6) Win Prob: 47.4% Value Score: 4.23 ★ ML: 6.00 (5/1) Overlay %: 3.31 Fair Odds: 5.90 (5/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | F | C |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | D | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Sprint FPS | C | D |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($50,000 → $25,000). (2) Speed average (72) well above field median (66). (3) Career-best speed figure (75) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Dropping in class ($25,000 vs last $50,000) after a 35-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Career-Best Recent Figure, Class Drop After Rest, Troubled Trip Comeback, Closer in Pace Duel, Class Drop.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 35 days. (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (4) Today's distance is longer than any previous start. (5) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (6) Trip note from last race: Chased;drftd out 1/8.
Mod1(W): 69 (2/6) Mod2(W): 63 (2/6) Mod3(W): 66 (3/6) Mod1-LS: 65 (4/6) Mod2-LS: 64 (2/6) Mod3-LS: 0 Mod4(Form): 56 (3/6) Win Prob: 54.9% Value Score: 3.85 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: 2.01 Fair Odds: 5.15 (4/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (61%). (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 11 wins from 43 starts (26%). (3) Career-best speed figure (71) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (58%). (5) Carries 5 lbs less than field median (119 lbs vs median 124 lbs). (6) Trainer 'NESS JAMIE' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Career-Best Recent Figure, Stable on Fire, Hot Jockey, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (4) Trip note from last race: Rushed steadied late. (5) Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board.
Mod1(W): 100 (1/6) Mod2(W): 100 (1/6) Mod3(W): 100 (1/6) Mod1-LS: 82 (3/6) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/6) Win Prob: 75.5% Value Score: 2.7 ★ ML: 1.80 (4/5) Overlay %: -11.21 Fair Odds: 4.97 (4/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
⚠ Concerns:(1) Repeatedly beaten at this class level (4 of last 5 starts). (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (4) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 6 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: No rally btwn foes. (6) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (7) Last race was career-best speed (69) — bounce risk after peak effort. (8) 0 wins from 6 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 20 (5/6) Mod2(W): 9 (5/6) Mod3(W): 18 (6/6) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/6) Mod2-LS: 8 (5/6) Mod3-LS: 71 (3/6) Mod4(Form): 11 (6/6) Win Prob: 28.3% Value Score: 3.26 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 4.11 Fair Odds: 6.81 (6/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Finish Pos | C | D |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 85 vs field 80). (2) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Carries 11 lbs less than field median (112 lbs vs median 123 lbs). (4) Career-best figure (89) buried in races 4–10 back — 13 pts above race median and 12 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'F', 'L', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hidden Figure, Late Kick Advantage, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: Stumbled;sent;drftd. (3) Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 26 days since last race.
Mod1(W): 49 (4/9) Mod2(W): 61 (4/9) Mod3(W): 56 (4/9) Mod1-LS: 70 (3/9) Mod2-LS: 59 (4/9) Mod3-LS: 88 (4/9) Mod4(Form): 43 (4/9) Win Prob: 31.1% Value Score: 3.56 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 1.52 Fair Odds: 8.75 (8/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — P-P · Slow
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | B | A |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Track specialist — 2 wins from 8 starts here (25%). (2) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 83 vs field 80). (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Has won at LRL on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Last race: surged from 6th at 1st call to 3rd/2nd at stretch but faded to 4th — hidden energy often signals next-race win. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'F', 'L', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Late Kick Advantage, Closer in Pace Duel, Won Here Before, Track Specialist, Middle Move Upside.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Trip note from last race: Stp slw;brush;5w;flttn.
Mod1(W): 43 (6/9) Mod2(W): 51 (7/9) Mod3(W): 50 (6/9) Mod1-LS: 62 (5/9) Mod2-LS: 47 (6/9) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/9) Mod4(Form): 36 (5/9) Win Prob: 33.5% Value Score: 4.69 ★ ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 3.17 Fair Odds: 8.69 (8/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — P-P · Slow
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | A | C |
| Dirt Speed | F | B |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | F | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | B |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 36-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Equipment change today (code: 1). (3) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Returning from 36-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (5) Has won at LRL on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Sharp Return Workout, Won at This Distance, Won Here Before, Equipment Change.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 36 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Trip note from last race: Showed speed;gave way.
Mod1(W): 41 (7/9) Mod2(W): 52 (6/9) Mod3(W): 49 (7/9) Mod1-LS: 61 (6/9) Mod2-LS: 49 (5/9) Mod3-LS: 58 (8/9) Mod4(Form): 35 (6/9) Win Prob: 27% Value Score: 3.78 ★ ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 2.64 Fair Odds: 9.22 (8/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — P-P · Slow
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Finish Pos | C | C |
| Dirt Speed | C | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | B |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($20,000 → $7,500). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (55%). (3) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 2 wins from 6 starts (33%). (4) Big last-race effort (79) — 8 pts above recent average. (5) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (58%). (6) Track specialist — 2 wins from 7 starts here (29%). (7) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 94 vs field 87). (8) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (9) Has won at LRL on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (10) Carries 5 lbs less than field median (118 lbs vs median 123 lbs). (11) Career-best figure (90) buried in races 4–10 back — 14 pts above race median and 10 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (12) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (13) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Won at This Distance, Hot Jockey, Hidden Figure, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Won Here Before, Class Drop, Track Specialist, Early Speed Edge, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (7 of 10 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Rail; dueled; weakened. (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 28 days since last race. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 10.2 pts: [79, 80, 64, 69, 90]) — unpredictable performer.
Mod1(W): 100 (1/9) Mod2(W): 100 (1/9) Mod3(W): 100 (1/9) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/9) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/9) Mod3-LS: 75 (6/9) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/9) Win Prob: 81.5% Value Score: 2.49 ★ ML: 1.40 (2/5) Overlay %: -20.74 Fair Odds: 7.32 (6/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — P-P · Slow
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | A |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Finish Pos | A | C |
| Dirt Speed | B | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Big last-race effort (80) — 8 pts above recent average. (2) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (3) Career-best figure (86) buried in races 4–10 back — 10 pts above race median and 6 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Hidden Figure, Closer in Pace Duel.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 9 recent starts). (2) Trip note from last race: Stdy 3-1/2;angl;churn. (3) Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. (4) 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 53 (3/9) Mod2(W): 64 (3/9) Mod3(W): 56 (3/9) Mod1-LS: 52 (7/9) Mod2-LS: 62 (3/9) Mod3-LS: 60 (7/9) Mod4(Form): 51 (3/9) Win Prob: 43.8% Value Score: 3.9 ★ ML: 6.00 (5/1) Overlay %: -0.88 Fair Odds: 8.66 (8/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — P-P · Slow
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | A |
| Finish Pos | C | C |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | D | C |
| Route FPS | D | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (4) 0 wins from 6 career starts on off tracks. (5) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (6) Trip note from last race: 3wd turn; weakened. (7) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (8) Outside post (10) in a large field of 10 horses. (9) Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. (10) No workout in last 30 days despite 27 days since last race. (11) Post 10 in a 10-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. (12) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.2 pts: [82, 84, 82, 75, 64]) — unpredictable performer. (13) 0 wins from 8 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 43 (5/9) Mod2(W): 53 (5/9) Mod3(W): 51 (5/9) Mod1-LS: 75 (2/9) Mod2-LS: 46 (7/9) Mod3-LS: 98 (3/9) Mod4(Form): 27 (7/9) Win Prob: 19.6% Value Score: 3.24 ★ ML: 12.00 (10/1) Overlay %: 3.38 Fair Odds: 9.60 (9/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — P-P · Slow
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | B |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Finish Pos | D | D |
| Dirt Speed | D | A |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | D | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (2) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Has won at LRL on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (4) Carries 7 lbs less than field median (116 lbs vs median 123 lbs). (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'L', 'O', 'T', 'U', 'V']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Won at This Distance, Bullet Workout, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: Duel;drftd out;driving.
Mod1(W): 76 (3/4) Mod2(W): 64 (3/4) Mod3(W): 65 (3/4) Mod1-LS: 86 (2/4) Mod2-LS: 74 (3/4) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/4) Mod4(Form): 83 (2/4) Win Prob: 63.7% Value Score: 2.86 ★ ML: 2.50 (3/2) Overlay %: 0.07 Fair Odds: 3.47 (5/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | A |
| Finish Pos | C | B |
| Dirt Speed | C | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Fourth race back from a 54-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (2) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Has won at LRL on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: 3wd;aim;weakened.
Mod1(W): 48 (4/4) Mod2(W): 47 (4/4) Mod3(W): 42 (4/4) Mod1-LS: 7 (4/4) Mod2-LS: 48 (4/4) Mod3-LS: 26 (4/4) Mod4(Form): 45 (4/4) Win Prob: 65% Value Score: 4.58 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: 5.25 Fair Odds: 4.14 (3/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | A |
| Finish Pos | B | B |
| Dirt Speed | C | A |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | D | B |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | B | A |
| Sprint FPS | C | B |
| Route FPS | C | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (2) Has won at LRL on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (3) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'O', 'T']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: Prompted winner;game.
Mod1(W): 79 (2/4) Mod2(W): 87 (2/4) Mod3(W): 65 (2/4) Mod1-LS: 85 (3/4) Mod2-LS: 79 (2/4) Mod3-LS: 86 (2/4) Mod4(Form): 80 (3/4) Win Prob: 69.4% Value Score: 3.11 ★ ML: 2.50 (3/2) Overlay %: -1.06 Fair Odds: 3.71 (5/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | C | A |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | D | C |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | D | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | C | A |
| Mid Pace | D | A |
| Late Pace | B | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (40%). (2) Equipment change today (code: 1). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (58%). (4) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 69 vs field 63). (5) Carries 9 lbs less than field median (115 lbs vs median 124 lbs). (6) Career-best figure (66) buried in races 4–10 back — 10 pts above race median and 5 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['F', 'L', 'O', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Hot Jockey, Hidden Figure, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Late Kick Advantage, Equipment Change, Weight Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). (2) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (3) Trip note from last race: No factor; rail turn. (4) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($16,000 → $15,000 → $12,500).
Mod1(W): 54 (4/5) Mod2(W): 57 (4/5) Mod3(W): 65 (5/5) Mod1-LS: 7 (4/5) Mod2-LS: 60 (3/5) Mod3-LS: 82 (2/5) Mod4(Form): 65 (4/5) Win Prob: 57% Value Score: 3.96 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: 3.23 Fair Odds: 4.67 (7/2) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | A | D |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Finish Pos | F | D |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | F |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | A | D |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | B | D |
| Route FPS | B | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | F |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | A | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Big last-race effort (57) — 18 pts above recent average. (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (80%). (3) Has won at LRL on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (4) Speed improved +4 pts then +12 pts in last 2 starts (41 → 45 → 57) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Cutting back to sprint (1320 yds) from routes — sprint speed figures (45.6) are 5.6 pts better than route figures (40.1). (7) Averages 54.2 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 49.0 in other configs (4 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Form Surge, Distance Cutback, Hot Jockey, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Return to Proven Setup.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). (3) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 6 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Early duel; weakened. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 13.1 pts: [57, 45, 41, 30, 63]) — unpredictable performer.
Mod1(W): 50 (5/5) Mod2(W): 59 (3/5) Mod3(W): 67 (4/5) Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 59 (5/5) Mod3-LS: 18 (4/5) Mod4(Form): 71 (3/5) Win Prob: 72.7% Value Score: 4.59 ★ ML: 4.00 (3/1) Overlay %: 1.75 Fair Odds: 4.68 (7/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | F |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | D | D |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | C |
| Route FPS | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | F |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Carries 10 lbs less than field median (114 lbs vs median 124 lbs).
⚠ Concerns:(1) Speed average (45) well below field median (56). (2) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). (4) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (3 of 3 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Mild move turn;weaknd. (6) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (7) 0 wins from 5 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 0 Mod2(W): 0 Mod3(W): 0 Mod1-LS: 3 (5/5) Mod2-LS: 0 Mod3-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod4(Form): 0 Win Prob: 16.6% Value Score: 4.41 ★ ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 9.23 Fair Odds: 6.69 (6/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | C | F |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | B | D |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | C | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | F |
| Early Pace | C | F |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | B | D |
| Sprint FPS | C | D |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
⚠ Concerns:(1) First-time starter - no previous race record. (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Has never raced on dirt surface.
Mod1(W): 59 (3/5) Mod2(W): 56 (5/5) Mod3(W): 67 (3/5) Mod1-LS: 68 (3/5) Mod2-LS: 59 (4/5) Mod3-LS: 8 (5/5) Mod4(Form): 63 (5/5) Win Prob: 64.2% Value Score: 4.45 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: 0.67 Fair Odds: 5.63 (9/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | D | F |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | D | F |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | D | F |
| Sprint FPS | D | F |
| Route FPS | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
★ Free Preview
AI Performances Chart
AI Speed
AI Opponent
Performance Trend
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($20,000 → $12,500). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (38%). (3) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 2 wins from 5 starts (40%). (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['T', 'U', 'V']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Class Drop.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). (2) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 6 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: 3-4path turn;gave way. (4) Last race was career-best speed (67) — bounce risk after peak effort. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 12.2 pts: [67, 64, 67, 61, 38]) — unpredictable performer. (6) 0 wins from 6 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 100 (1/5) Mod2(W): 100 (1/5) Mod3(W): 100 (1/5) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod3-LS: 32 (3/5) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/5) Win Prob: 81.9% Value Score: 2.58 ★ ML: 1.50 (1/2) Overlay %: -11.09 Fair Odds: 3.85 (3/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Track Bias by Lane — LRL
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace — LRL
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
Performance vs. Peers
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
E1 — Early
E2 — Mid
LP — Stretch
🏁 Gate
Finish 🏁
Track Bias
◀ Closer
Speed ▶
0
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | D |
| Late Pace | A | D |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
TL;DR
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Pick Pony's AI picks work best when used with our Past Performance reports to enhance your handicapping and are especially effective for identifying potential longshot selections. You can purchase custom Past Performance reports through one of our subscription options. Learn more about Pick Pony's Past Performance reports here. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.
Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).
Algo Picks – Algo 1
| Race 1 | |
| Win: | 1 – Turkish Breeze (5/2) |
| Place: | 2 – Rosie's Fortune (8/1) |
| Show: | 3 – Modernis Silver (10/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Naomi An Ruth (8/1), 5 – Eastcoastgirlsrhip (5/1) |
| Race 2 | |
| Win: | 5 – Honor Our Country (9/5) |
| Place: | 1 – No Mo Muffins (8/5) |
| Show: | 4 – Yes Picnic (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Back Wall Bandit (6/1), 3 – Diamond N Dress (10/1) |
| Race 3 | |
| Win: | 5 – Chilly Girl (9/5) |
| Place: | 1 – Cross Of Valor (2/1) |
| Show: | 3 – Lovely Lookin Lili (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Pneumo Warrior (9/2), 2 – Peace Before Chaos (12/1) |
| Race 4 | |
| Win: | 6 – Ellinger (9/2) |
| Place: | 1 – D Hopper (2/1) |
| Show: | 4 – Who Says So (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Blo By'em (2/1), 2 – A. L.'s Boy (15/1) |
| Race 5 | |
| Win: | 3 – Call Me Victorious (9/2) |
| Place: | 2 – Its All Gravy (6/1) |
| Show: | 7 – Paid Vacation (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Master Schemer (3/1), 6 – Bigshot Ness (9/5) |
| Race 6 | |
| Win: | 5 – Kerness K (7/5) |
| Place: | 4 – Find Faith (10/1) |
| Show: | 2 – Magic Spin (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 10 – Quincannon (12/1), 6 – Catahoula Moon (6/1), 3 – Uniwinner (10/1) |
| Race 7 | |
| Win: | 1 – Paco The Taco Man (5/2) |
| Place: | 4 – Change My World (9/2) |
| Show: | 5 – Wickeddivine (5/2) |
| Race 8 | |
| Win: | 6 – Q Got Hops (3/2) |
| Place: | 1 – Rio Del Valle (9/2) |
| Show: | 2 – Tug (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Babble (20/1), 5 – Poor Peanut (9/2) |
| AI Weight Settings |
| Speed: 4, FPS: 10, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Overall Pace: 400, Early Pace: 30, Mid Pace: 30, Late Pace: 30, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 4, Last Three Races: 8, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 500, |
Algo Picks – Algo 2
| Race 1 | |
| Win: | 1 – Turkish Breeze (5/2) |
| Place: | 2 – Rosie's Fortune (8/1) |
| Show: | 3 – Modernis Silver (10/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Naomi An Ruth (8/1), 5 – Eastcoastgirlsrhip (5/1) |
| Race 2 | |
| Win: | 5 – Honor Our Country (9/5) |
| Place: | 1 – No Mo Muffins (8/5) |
| Show: | 4 – Yes Picnic (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Back Wall Bandit (6/1), 3 – Diamond N Dress (10/1) |
| Race 3 | |
| Win: | 5 – Chilly Girl (9/5) |
| Place: | 1 – Cross Of Valor (2/1) |
| Show: | 3 – Lovely Lookin Lili (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Pneumo Warrior (9/2), 2 – Peace Before Chaos (12/1) |
| Race 4 | |
| Win: | 6 – Ellinger (9/2) |
| Place: | 1 – D Hopper (2/1) |
| Show: | 4 – Who Says So (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Blo By'em (2/1), 2 – A. L.'s Boy (15/1) |
| Race 5 | |
| Win: | 3 – Call Me Victorious (9/2) |
| Place: | 2 – Its All Gravy (6/1) |
| Show: | 7 – Paid Vacation (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Master Schemer (3/1), 6 – Bigshot Ness (9/5) |
| Race 6 | |
| Win: | 5 – Kerness K (7/5) |
| Place: | 2 – Magic Spin (8/1) |
| Show: | 10 – Quincannon (12/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Find Faith (10/1), 6 – Catahoula Moon (6/1), 3 – Uniwinner (10/1) |
| Race 7 | |
| Win: | 1 – Paco The Taco Man (5/2) |
| Place: | 4 – Change My World (9/2) |
| Show: | 5 – Wickeddivine (5/2) |
| Race 8 | |
| Win: | 6 – Q Got Hops (3/2) |
| Place: | 1 – Rio Del Valle (9/2) |
| Show: | 2 – Tug (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Babble (20/1), 5 – Poor Peanut (9/2) |
| AI Weight Settings |
| Speed: 60, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 15, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 300, Early Pace: 1, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 20, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 90, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 25, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 5, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 250, |
Algo Picks – Algo 3
| Race 1 | |
| Win: | 1 – Turkish Breeze (5/2) |
| Place: | 2 – Rosie's Fortune (8/1) |
| Show: | 3 – Modernis Silver (10/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Naomi An Ruth (8/1), 5 – Eastcoastgirlsrhip (5/1) |
| Race 2 | |
| Win: | 5 – Honor Our Country (9/5) |
| Place: | 1 – No Mo Muffins (8/5) |
| Show: | 4 – Yes Picnic (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Back Wall Bandit (6/1), 3 – Diamond N Dress (10/1) |
| Race 3 | |
| Win: | 5 – Chilly Girl (9/5) |
| Place: | 1 – Cross Of Valor (2/1) |
| Show: | 4 – Pneumo Warrior (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Lovely Lookin Lili (8/1), 2 – Peace Before Chaos (12/1) |
| Race 4 | |
| Win: | 6 – Ellinger (9/2) |
| Place: | 1 – D Hopper (2/1) |
| Show: | 4 – Who Says So (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Blo By'em (2/1), 2 – A. L.'s Boy (15/1) |
| Race 5 | |
| Win: | 3 – Call Me Victorious (9/2) |
| Place: | 2 – Its All Gravy (6/1) |
| Show: | 7 – Paid Vacation (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Master Schemer (3/1), 6 – Bigshot Ness (9/5) |
| Race 6 | |
| Win: | 5 – Kerness K (7/5) |
| Place: | 10 – Quincannon (12/1) |
| Show: | 2 – Magic Spin (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Find Faith (10/1), 3 – Uniwinner (10/1), 6 – Catahoula Moon (6/1) |
| Race 7 | |
| Win: | 1 – Paco The Taco Man (5/2) |
| Place: | 5 – Wickeddivine (5/2) |
| Show: | 4 – Change My World (9/2) |
| Race 8 | |
| Win: | 6 – Q Got Hops (3/2) |
| Place: | 1 – Rio Del Valle (9/2) |
| Show: | 2 – Tug (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Babble (20/1), 5 – Poor Peanut (9/2) |
| AI Weight Settings |
| Speed: 50, FPS: 24, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 15, Overall Pace: 300, Early Pace: 3, Mid Pace: 1, Late Pace: 1, Post Position: 5, PPPP Rating: 10, Average Finish: 5, Days Since Last Race: 15, Jockey: 10, Trainer: 20, Track Bias: 20, Morning Line: 10, Pedigree: 15, Works: 15, Weight: 5, Medications: 5, Weather: 5, Race Trouble: 35, Last Race: 3, Last Three Races: 4, All Races: 2, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 30, |
Index – Horses Running In This Card
| A. L.'S BOY | BABBLE | BACK WALL BANDIT | BIGSHOT NESS | BLO BY'EM |
| CATAHOULA MOON | CHANGE MY WORLD | CHILLY GIRL | CROSS OF VALOR | D HOPPER |
| EASTCOASTGIRLSRHIP | ELLINGER | ENZO | FIND FAITH | GUAPONESS |
| ITS ALL GRAVY | KEEPING IT COUNTRY | KERNESS K | LOVELY LOOKIN LILI | MAGIC SPIN |
| MISTER AGENT | MODERNIS SILVER | MODRANACH | MORE VINO | NAOMI AN RUTH |
| OLD FASHION CANDY | ONLY MARIA | PACO THE TACO MAN | PAID VACATION | PEACE BEFORE CHAOS |
| POOR PEANUT | PROM KNIGHT | Q GOT HOPS | QUINCANNON | RIGHT OF RUSH |
| RIVER CITY RUNNER | ROSIE'S FORTUNE | STAY FEARLESS | STYLISH GEM | TUG |
| UNIWINNER | WHO SAYS SO | WICKEDDIVINE | YES PICNIC |
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✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($30,000 → $16,000). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (51%). (3) Career-best speed figure (44) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (48%). (5) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (6) Trainer 'MAGEE KIERON' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'L', 'O', 'T']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Stable on Fire, Hot Jockey, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Trainer, Class Drop, Sharp Gate Work.