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✓ Positives:(1) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (2) Carries 8 lbs less than field median (118 lbs vs median 126 lbs).

⚠ Concerns:(1) First-time starter - no previous race record. (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Has never raced on dirt surface.

LGBM: 64 (4/5) CatBoost: 55 (4/5) XGB: 45 (4/5) LGBM-LS: 0 CatBoost-LS: 55 (4/5) XGB-LS: 0 Win Prob: 39.5% Value Score: 2.47 ★ ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: 0.77 Fair Odds: 4.96 (9/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	F	F
Mid Pace	F	F
Late Pace	F	F
Finish Pos	B	A
Dirt Speed	D	F
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	B	C
3rd Party Ratings	F	F
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	F	F
Mid Pace	F	F
Late Pace	F	F
Sprint FPS	F	F
Route FPS	F	F
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	B	C
3rd Party Ratings	F	F
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	D	F
Mid Pace	D	F
Late Pace	C	C

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AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (60) well above field median (49). (2) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 78 vs field 65). (3) Strong speed 2 back (62), modest dip last out (57) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (4) Carries 8 lbs less than field median (118 lbs vs median 126 lbs). (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Late Kick Advantage, Form Reversal, Weight Advantage.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($7,500 → $15,000). (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (4) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Ins;traffic btw 2w1/8. (6) Rising in class ($7,500 → $15,000) after finishing 6 last out — double negative. (7) Stepping up to $15,000 — highest class level in last 10 starts (previous high: $7,500).

LGBM: 80 (3/5) CatBoost: 79 (2/5) XGB: 81 (2/5) LGBM-LS: 76 (2/5) CatBoost-LS: 78 (2/5) XGB-LS: 62 (4/5) Win Prob: 56.3% Value Score: 2.11 ★ ML: 2.00 (9/5) Overlay %: -8.28 Fair Odds: 4.44 (7/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	B	A
Dirt Speed	D	F
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	F	D
3rd Party Ratings	A	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	D	D
Route FPS	C	D
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	F	D
3rd Party Ratings	A	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	D
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (68) well above field median (49). (2) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 68 vs field 65). (3) Career-best figure (76) buried in races 4–10 back — 27 pts above race median and 13 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Late Kick Advantage, Hidden Figure.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($7,500 → $15,000). (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (4) Trip note from last race: 5p1st;midmv;flttnout. (5) Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board. (6) Rising in class ($7,500 → $15,000) after finishing 5 last out — double negative. (7) 0 wins from 9 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.

LGBM: 100 (1/5) CatBoost: 100 (1/5) XGB: 100 (1/5) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/5) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/5) XGB-LS: 100 (1/5) Win Prob: 74% Value Score: 2.41 ★ ML: 1.60 (9/5) Overlay %: -10.14 Fair Odds: 3.85 (7/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	A	C
Finish Pos	B	A
Dirt Speed	A	B
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	D	F
Trainer Effectiveness	F	D
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	A	C
Late Pace	B	D
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	A	C
Trainer Effectiveness	F	D
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	C
Late Pace	C	C

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AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (61%). (2) Track specialist — 2 wins from 8 starts here (25%). (3) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 87 vs field 82). (4) Strong speed 2 back (76), modest dip last out (67) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (5) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Outstanding wet-track record: 3W from 8 starts (38%) — thrives when the going is off. (7) Has won at MVR on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Won at This Distance, Off-Track Ace, Track Specialist, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Early Speed Edge, Form Reversal.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Trip note from last race: Ins;2p upr; clr 3rd. (4) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 10.8 pts: [67, 76, 56, 55, 78]) — unpredictable performer.

LGBM: 100 (1/5) CatBoost: 100 (1/5) XGB: 100 (1/5) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/5) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/5) XGB-LS: 100 (1/5) Win Prob: 67.6% Value Score: 2.52 ★ ML: 2.00 (9/5) Overlay %: -6.79 Fair Odds: 3.97 (7/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	B
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	C	B
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	F	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	B	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	B	B
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	B	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 64-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Significantly better on off tracks (off: 89 vs fast: 81). (3) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 3 wins from 9 starts (33%). (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (48%). (5) 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. (6) Consistent workout spacing (8, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (7) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Dropping in class ($6,500 vs last $8,000) after a 64-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (9) Has won at MVR on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Class Drop After Rest, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Won Here Before, Off-Track Preference, Hot Jockey, Won at This Distance, Sharp Workout Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 64 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (4) Trip note from last race: 4-w; lacked rally. (5) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (6) Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). (7) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 15.0 pts: [61, 74, 39, 56, 76]) — unpredictable performer.

LGBM: 68 (4/5) CatBoost: 51 (4/5) XGB: 25 (4/5) LGBM-LS: 12 (5/5) CatBoost-LS: 52 (4/5) XGB-LS: 56 (4/5) Win Prob: 53.1% Value Score: 2.96 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -2.43 Fair Odds: 5.45 (9/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	D	C
Finish Pos	B	C
Dirt Speed	B	B
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	D
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	F	C
Late Pace	F	C
Sprint FPS	C	C
Route FPS	B	C
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (81%). (2) Big last-race effort (79) — 12 pts above recent average. (3) Equipment change today (code: 1). (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (48%). (5) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 80 vs field 76). (6) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (7) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Has won at MVR on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (9) Speed improved +6 pts then +12 pts in last 2 starts (61 → 67 → 79) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (10) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (11) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Form Surge, Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Late Kick Advantage, Hot Jockey, Won at This Distance, Equipment Change.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Trip note from last race: Stlkd;3p1/8;latecharge. (2) Consistently runs wide at the first call (4 of last 5 starts). (3) Last race was career-best speed (79) — bounce risk after peak effort. (4) Two consecutive 5+ pt speed jumps (61 → 67 → 79) and last race speed is well above career average (67) — high bounce risk after back-to-back peak efforts.

LGBM: 94 (2/5) CatBoost: 88 (2/5) XGB: 69 (2/5) LGBM-LS: 80 (2/5) CatBoost-LS: 79 (2/5) XGB-LS: 56 (5/5) Win Prob: 58.4% Value Score: 2.9 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -1.41 Fair Odds: 4.33 (7/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	F	C
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	C	C
Dirt Speed	C	B
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	D	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	D	D
Route FPS	C	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	F	C
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($10,000 → $6,500). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (49%). (3) Career-best speed figure (70) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (50%). (5) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Dropping in class ($6,500 vs last $10,000) after a 35-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (7) Returning from 35-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (8) Has won at MVR on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (9) Trainer 'CLINE ROBERT C' has 3 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (10) Averages 61.3 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 56.2 in other configs (6 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (11) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Drop After Rest, Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer, Won Here Before, Class Drop, Sharp Return Workout, Hot Jockey, Return to Proven Setup, Won at This Distance, Stable on Fire.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 35 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Speed average (59) well below field median (66). (4) Trip note from last race: Set pace; gave way. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 35 days since last race. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.8 pts: [52, 72, 69, 62, 54]) — unpredictable performer.

LGBM: 75 (2/5) CatBoost: 41 (3/5) XGB: 42 (3/5) LGBM-LS: 34 (4/5) CatBoost-LS: 40 (4/5) XGB-LS: 31 (3/5) Win Prob: 52.5% Value Score: 2.92 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -0.66 Fair Odds: 4.77 (9/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	F	D
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	D	C
Finish Pos	F	F
Dirt Speed	F	C
Turf Speed	A	C
Distance Speed	C	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	C	C
Route FPS	A	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	D
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (49%). (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (45%). (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Trainer 'CLINE ROBERT C' has 3 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (5) Career-best figure (78) buried in races 4–10 back — 12 pts above race median and 9 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'L', 'O', 'S']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hidden Figure, Hot Jockey, Stable on Fire.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). (2) Trip note from last race: Off slw;circld;chsd2nd. (3) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (4) Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 29 days since last race. (6) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($10,000 → $8,000 → $7,500).

LGBM: 64 (3/5) CatBoost: 70 (2/5) XGB: 61 (2/5) LGBM-LS: 55 (3/5) CatBoost-LS: 65 (2/5) XGB-LS: 100 (1/5) Win Prob: 56.7% Value Score: 2.8 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -0.97 Fair Odds: 4.19 (7/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	A	B
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	C	D
Mid Pace	B	D
Late Pace	C	C
Sprint FPS	D	D
Route FPS	B	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($15,000 → $6,500). (2) Speed average (76) well above field median (66). (3) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 85 vs field 81). (4) Career-best figure (81) buried in races 4–10 back — 15 pts above race median and 7 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['F', 'L', 'T']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Troubled Trip Comeback, Class Drop, Hidden Figure, Early Speed Edge.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: 2p; flatten final 1/16. (4) Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 16 days since last race. (6) 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.

LGBM: 100 (1/5) CatBoost: 100 (1/5) XGB: 100 (1/5) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/5) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/5) XGB-LS: 54 (2/5) Win Prob: 61.1% Value Score: 2.64 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: 0.52 Fair Odds: 3.23 (5/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	B	C
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	D	C
Jockey Effectiveness	D	F
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	D	C
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	D	C
Jockey Effectiveness	D	F
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (61) well above field median (52). (2) Significantly better on off tracks (off: 68 vs fast: 45). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (56%). (4) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 88 vs field 79). (5) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Has won at MVR on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Carries 6 lbs less than field median (118 lbs vs median 124 lbs). (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'L', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Hot Trainer, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Off-Track Preference, Early Speed Edge, Won at This Distance, Weight Advantage.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (3 of 5 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Bmp btwn st; 2p; clear. (4) Consistently breaks behind post position (4 of last 5 starts). (5) Last race was career-best speed (68) — bounce risk after peak effort. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.5 pts: [68, 64, 61, 68, 45]) — unpredictable performer.

LGBM: 100 (1/6) CatBoost: 100 (1/6) XGB: 100 (1/6) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/6) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/6) XGB-LS: 100 (1/6) Win Prob: 88.2% Value Score: 2 ★ ML: 0.80 Overlay %: -22.34 Fair Odds: 3.61 (7/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	A
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	B	D
Finish Pos	C	F
Dirt Speed	F	D
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	A	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	C	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	A	C
Sprint FPS	B	C
Route FPS	A	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	C	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 6 recent starts). (2) Trip note from last race: Dropped bk;no factor. (3) Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 23 days since last race. (5) 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.

LGBM: 43 (3/6) CatBoost: 35 (3/6) XGB: 27 (3/6) LGBM-LS: 12 (6/6) CatBoost-LS: 34 (3/6) XGB-LS: 10 (6/6) Win Prob: 32.2% Value Score: 2.85 ★ ML: 6.00 (11/2) Overlay %: 2.88 Fair Odds: 6.04 (11/2) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	F
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	D
Late Pace	C	D
Finish Pos	D	F
Dirt Speed	A	C
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	B	C
Trainer Effectiveness	D	C
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	B	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	D
Late Pace	C	D
Sprint FPS	D	D
Route FPS	C	D
Trainer Effectiveness	D	C
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	B	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	C	D
Mid Pace	C	D
Late Pace	C	C

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AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Significantly better on off tracks (off: 66 vs fast: 59). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (50%). (3) Career-best speed figure (59) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (53%). (5) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 82 vs field 79). (6) Strong speed 2 back (66), modest dip last out (59) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (7) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Averages 59.3 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 49.7 in other configs (7 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Return to Proven Setup, Off-Track Preference, Hot Jockey, Early Speed Edge, Form Reversal.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) 0 wins from 6 career starts on off tracks. (4) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 6 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Rank;stlkd;clr2nd. (6) 0 wins from 9 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.

LGBM: 74 (2/6) CatBoost: 74 (2/6) XGB: 57 (2/6) LGBM-LS: 62 (3/6) CatBoost-LS: 69 (2/6) XGB-LS: 49 (4/6) Win Prob: 64.5% Value Score: 2.85 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -5.35 Fair Odds: 4.78 (9/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	A	C
Late Pace	D	D
Finish Pos	A	C
Dirt Speed	C	D
Turf Speed	A	C
Distance Speed	B	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	B	D
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	A	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) In the money in last 3 consecutive starts. (2) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 92 vs field 88). (3) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Outstanding wet-track record: 4W from 13 starts (31%) — thrives when the going is off. (5) Has won at MVR on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Career-best figure (87) buried in races 4–10 back — 17 pts above race median and 9 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Consistent In-The-Money, Off-Track Ace, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Hidden Figure, Early Speed Edge, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (7 of 10 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Pc; worndwn;outfnshd. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 13.0 pts: [78, 73, 71, 71, 45]) — unpredictable performer.

LGBM: 68 (3/8) CatBoost: 91 (3/8) XGB: 89 (3/8) LGBM-LS: 82 (2/8) CatBoost-LS: 88 (2/8) XGB-LS: 64 (2/8) Win Prob: 56.1% Value Score: 3.59 ★ ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: -2.33 Fair Odds: 6.52 (6/1) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	C
Finish Pos	B	B
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	C	B
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	D	C
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	C	B
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (57%). (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 15 wins from 41 starts (37%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (58%). (4) Strong speed 2 back (84), modest dip last out (77) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (5) Has won at MVR on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['S', 'T']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Hot Trainer, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Hot Jockey, Form Reversal.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (3) Trip note from last race: Set/prmpt pc; empty. (4) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 12.0 pts: [77, 84, 60, 88, 65]) — unpredictable performer.

LGBM: 74 (2/8) CatBoost: 97 (2/8) XGB: 100 (1/8) LGBM-LS: 74 (3/8) CatBoost-LS: 85 (3/8) XGB-LS: 61 (3/8) Win Prob: 71% Value Score: 3.64 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -6.60 Fair Odds: 6.73 (6/1) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	D	C
Finish Pos	F	D
Dirt Speed	B	A
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	B	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	C
Sprint FPS	D	C
Route FPS	C	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (78) well above field median (70). (2) Career-best speed figure (88) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) In the money in last 3 consecutive starts. (4) Track specialist — 5 wins from 12 starts here (42%). (5) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 82 vs field 76). (6) Strong speed 2 back (88), modest dip last out (79) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (7) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Outstanding wet-track record: 3W from 8 starts (38%) — thrives when the going is off. (9) Has won at MVR on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (10) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['L', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (11) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Consistent In-The-Money, Career-Best Recent Figure, Won at This Distance, Off-Track Ace, Track Specialist, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Late Kick Advantage, Form Reversal.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (2) Trip note from last race: 5w-up;strong rally plc. (3) No workout in last 30 days despite 18 days since last race. (4) Post 7 in a 9-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.

LGBM: 100 (1/8) CatBoost: 100 (1/8) XGB: 90 (2/8) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/8) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/8) XGB-LS: 100 (1/8) Win Prob: 58.3% Value Score: 3.36 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -3.71 Fair Odds: 6.33 (11/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	C	B
Dirt Speed	B	A
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	B	A
Trainer Effectiveness	D	C
Jockey Effectiveness	C	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	B	A
Trainer Effectiveness	D	C
Jockey Effectiveness	C	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	C	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (66%). (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (48%). (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 89 vs field 83). (4) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Outstanding wet-track record: 7W from 15 starts (47%) — thrives when the going is off. (6) Has won at MVR on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Career-best figure (89) buried in races 4–10 back — 10 pts above race median and 7 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L', 'S', 'T', 'V']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Off-Track Ace, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Late Kick Advantage, Hidden Figure, Hot Jockey, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (2) Trip note from last race: Stlkd; bmp; prevailed.

LGBM: 100 (1/6) CatBoost: 100 (1/6) XGB: 100 (1/6) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/6) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/6) XGB-LS: 83 (3/6) Win Prob: 71.3% Value Score: 3.15 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -5.52 Fair Odds: 4.83 (9/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — P-P · Slow

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	D	C
Mid Pace	F	B
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	D	C
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	C	B
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	B
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	F	C
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	F	C
Mid Pace	F	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (54%). (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (53%). (3) Track specialist — 4 wins from 14 starts here (29%). (4) Strong speed 2 back (84), modest dip last out (77) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (5) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Outstanding wet-track record: 4W from 14 starts (29%) — thrives when the going is off. (7) Has won at MVR on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Won at This Distance, Off-Track Ace, Track Specialist, Won Here Before, Hot Jockey, Form Reversal.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($5,000 → $10,000). (2) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (7 of 10 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Bdi5w1/4;lost crop;flt. (4) Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 18 days since last race. (6) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($15,000 → $8,000 → $5,000). (7) Rising in class ($5,000 → $10,000) after finishing 5 last out — double negative.

LGBM: 87 (2/6) CatBoost: 87 (2/6) XGB: 82 (2/6) LGBM-LS: 85 (2/6) CatBoost-LS: 94 (2/6) XGB-LS: 100 (1/6) Win Prob: 68.6% Value Score: 3.46 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -3.77 Fair Odds: 5.22 (9/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — P-P · Slow

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	D	A
Finish Pos	C	B
Dirt Speed	B	A
Turf Speed	F	D
Distance Speed	F	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	A
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	C	A
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($15,000 → $10,000). (2) Track specialist — 3 wins from 9 starts here (33%). (3) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Outstanding wet-track record: 3W from 9 starts (33%) — thrives when the going is off. (5) Has won at MVR on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['L', 'V']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Averages 83.0 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 75.5 in other configs (8 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Off-Track Ace, Track Specialist, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Class Drop, Return to Proven Setup, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (2) Trip note from last race: 2w; evenly. (3) No workout in last 30 days despite 22 days since last race.

LGBM: 83 (3/6) CatBoost: 70 (4/6) XGB: 75 (3/6) LGBM-LS: 58 (4/6) CatBoost-LS: 84 (3/6) XGB-LS: 90 (2/6) Win Prob: 56.3% Value Score: 3.19 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -2.90 Fair Odds: 5.78 (11/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — P-P · Slow

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	A
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	D	B
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	F	F
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	A
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	D	B
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	F	F
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) 0 wins from 8 career starts on off tracks. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 7 recent starts). (4) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 7 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: 3p2nd;4p3/16;laterun. (6) Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. (7) 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.

LGBM: 78 (2/5) CatBoost: 71 (2/5) XGB: 78 (2/5) LGBM-LS: 48 (2/5) CatBoost-LS: 68 (2/5) XGB-LS: 42 (4/5) Win Prob: 68.3% Value Score: 2.96 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -4.51 Fair Odds: 4.38 (7/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	C	C
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	D	C
Jockey Effectiveness	F	F
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	D	C
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	D	C
Jockey Effectiveness	F	F
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (54%). (2) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 92 vs field 85). (3) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Outstanding wet-track record: 4W from 15 starts (27%) — thrives when the going is off. (5) Has won at MVR on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Career-best figure (88) buried in races 4–10 back — 14 pts above race median and 9 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Off-Track Ace, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Hidden Figure, Early Speed Edge, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: 3-5p; bid1/4; edge plc. (3) No workout in last 30 days despite 16 days since last race.

LGBM: 74 (3/5) CatBoost: 68 (4/5) XGB: 60 (4/5) LGBM-LS: 29 (4/5) CatBoost-LS: 62 (4/5) XGB-LS: 62 (2/5) Win Prob: 62.3% Value Score: 4.24 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: 2.16 Fair Odds: 4.93 (9/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	D	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	D
Finish Pos	D	D
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	B	B
Distance Speed	D	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	C
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	B	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (80) well above field median (74). (2) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 86 vs field 73). (3) Fourth race back from a 64-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (4) Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Has won at MVR on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Late Kick Advantage, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: Prmpt;btw1/16;lostnod.

LGBM: 100 (1/5) CatBoost: 100 (1/5) XGB: 100 (1/5) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/5) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/5) XGB-LS: 100 (1/5) Win Prob: 72.9% Value Score: 2.71 ★ ML: 2.00 (9/5) Overlay %: -6.10 Fair Odds: 3.80 (7/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	A	A
Dirt Speed	B	B
Turf Speed	D	D
Distance Speed	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	D	B
Route FPS	C	B
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	A
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	D	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 74 vs field 69). (2) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Has won at MVR on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'O', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Late Kick Advantage, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (3) Trip note from last race: 2p 5/16; edged out1/16. (4) Last race was career-best speed (76) — bounce risk after peak effort. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 16 days since last race. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.6 pts: [76, 72, 77, 67, 56]) — unpredictable performer.

LGBM: 76 (2/6) CatBoost: 71 (2/6) XGB: 50 (2/6) LGBM-LS: 69 (4/6) CatBoost-LS: 74 (2/6) XGB-LS: 46 (5/6) Win Prob: 46.9% Value Score: 2.97 ★ ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: -1.71 Fair Odds: 6.10 (11/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	D	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	B	B
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	D	C
Trainer Effectiveness	C	B
Jockey Effectiveness	C	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	D	B
Mid Pace	F	C
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	F	B
Route FPS	C	A
Trainer Effectiveness	C	B
Jockey Effectiveness	C	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (58%). (2) Career-best speed figure (71) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (58%). (4) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Returning from 30-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (6) Last race E1 pace (94.0) was 6.0 pts above personal avg (88.0) and horse still finished 6th — pace collapse victim; expect bounce if today's fractions are softer. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer, Pace Collapse Victim, Sharp Return Workout, Hot Jockey, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (3 of 4 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Bpd both sides st;ins. (4) Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 30 days since last race.

LGBM: 56 (4/6) CatBoost: 54 (3/6) XGB: 44 (3/6) LGBM-LS: 53 (5/6) CatBoost-LS: 56 (3/6) XGB-LS: 85 (2/6) Win Prob: 53.9% Value Score: 4.09 ★ ML: 5.00 (9/2) Overlay %: 2.71 Fair Odds: 5.30 (9/2) O/U: Overlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	D
Finish Pos	F	D
Dirt Speed	C	C
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	D
Sprint FPS	C	B
Route FPS	D	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	C	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (75) well above field median (63). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (49%). (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 73 vs field 69). (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel, Late Kick Advantage, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 58 days. (2) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (2 of 3 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Rel load;stalk;3p;wkn. (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 58 days since last race. (5) First start at MVR — never raced here before (last seen at: TAM).

LGBM: 100 (1/6) CatBoost: 100 (1/6) XGB: 100 (1/6) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/6) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/6) XGB-LS: 100 (1/6) Win Prob: 85.9% Value Score: 1.96 ★ ML: 0.80 Overlay %: -25.36 Fair Odds: 4.39 (7/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — MVR

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — MVR

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	C
Finish Pos	C	B
Dirt Speed	A	B
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	F	F
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	F	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	C
Sprint FPS	D	B
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	F	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

TL;DR

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Mahoning Valley Picks – April 10, 2026
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Mahoning Valley Picks – April 10, 2026

Mahoning Valley features dirt sprints and routes with purses from $15,600 to $25,900; expect good to sloppy conditions favoring inside posts (1-4) and front-runners/pace-pressers on wet tracks.

RACE 1

Lord Baranof (5) tops after class drop and strong trainer form; Usain Th (3) fits sprint with solid rating. Orb City (2) improves second out as longshot value.

RACE 2

Ilikethat (2) dominates morning line with top trainer; Ironclad Alibi (5) drops in class. Hite (4) rallies late as secondary.

RACE 3

Mr Loooch (6) leads with recent dominance; Derby Included (2) improves off barn heat. Carson N Spence (1) uses rail bias.

RACE 4

Counting On Clyde (1) sharp with class drop and works; Balki Bartokomous (7) fast figures. He Is Dynamic (6) improving form.

RACE 5

Red Head Kid (4) consistent speed figures; Gunner Gabriel (7) class drop and workout. Midnight Warship (1) pace edge.

RACE 6

Atkins (2) elite figure and stalker role; Time The Avenger (5) fits off layoff. Colonel Vargo (6) strong angle.

RACE 7

The Doorman (1) front-running form for distance; Romanian Prince (5) fast figures off layoff. Oklahoma Joe (2) speed duo.

RACE 8

Peripoli (7) bullet works and top connections; A Ok (6) crisp form. Scaredy Catness (2) rail speed.

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Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet for Mahoning Valley – Racing News and Analysis for April 10, 2026

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Mahoning Valley Picks – April 10, 2026

RACE 1

RACE 2

RACE 3

RACE 4

RACE 5

RACE 6

RACE 7

RACE 8

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