Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($10,000 → $16,000). (2) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (3) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (4) Trip note from last race: Rated; 4p; pass foe. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 28 days since last race. (6) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($23,500 → $12,500 → $10,000). (7) Rising in class ($10,000 → $16,000) after finishing 3 last out — double negative.
Mod1(W): 22 (3/4) Mod2(W): 30 (3/4) Mod3(W): 23 (3/4) Mod1-LS: 22 (3/4) Mod2-LS: 28 (3/4) Mod3-LS: 10 (4/4) Mod4(Form): 67 (3/4) Win Prob: 65.7% Value Score: 3.23 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: 0.32 Fair Odds: 3.84 (7/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Finish Pos | B | B |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Sprint FPS | B | A |
| Route FPS | C | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | B | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (80) well above field median (68). (2) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 93 vs field 85). (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 78 vs field 72). (4) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Has won at PEN on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Early Speed Edge, Late Kick Advantage, Won at This Distance, Won Here Before, Troubled Trip Comeback.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (3) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Dueled 3w; game ins. (5) Last race was career-best speed (86) — bounce risk after peak effort.
Mod1(W): 100 (1/4) Mod2(W): 100 (1/4) Mod3(W): 100 (1/4) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/4) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/4) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/4) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/4) Win Prob: 73.5% Value Score: 2.35 ★ ML: 1.60 (9/5) Overlay %: -5.08 Fair Odds: 2.82 (5/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | A | A |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (51%). (2) Big last-race effort (72) — 10 pts above recent average. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (62%). (4) Fourth race back from a 127-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (5) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Has won at PEN on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'F', 'L', 'O', 'V']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Won Here Before, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: Bid3w;drw off;mld drve. (3) Last race was career-best speed (72) — bounce risk after peak effort.
Mod1(W): 46 (2/4) Mod2(W): 37 (2/4) Mod3(W): 44 (2/4) Mod1-LS: 39 (2/4) Mod2-LS: 41 (2/4) Mod3-LS: 48 (2/4) Mod4(Form): 80 (2/4) Win Prob: 71.7% Value Score: 3.09 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -4.03 Fair Odds: 4.21 (7/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | C | B |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | B | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Career-best speed figure (71) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (2) Big last-race effort (62) — 8 pts above recent average. (3) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 89 vs field 85). (4) Strong speed 2 back (71), modest dip last out (62) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (5) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Has won at PEN on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Big Last Effort, Form Reversal, Won Here Before, Early Speed Edge, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Speed average (56) well below field median (68). (3) Trip note from last race: Bmpst; shdw; no match. (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 28 days since last race.
Mod1(W): 3 (4/4) Mod2(W): 0 Mod3(W): 3 (4/4) Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 0 Mod3-LS: 0 Mod4(Form): 21 (4/4) Win Prob: 52.8% Value Score: 3.9 ★ ML: 5.00 (9/2) Overlay %: 3.69 Fair Odds: 4.80 (9/2) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | C | D |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | B | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Career-best speed figure (56) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (2) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (3) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Troubled Trip Comeback.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Speed average (56) well below field median (62). (2) Trip note from last race: Chased;rail; weakened.
Mod1(W): 18 (5/5) Mod2(W): 4 (5/5) Mod3(W): 22 (5/5) Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 5 (5/5) Mod3-LS: 0 Mod4(Form): 32 (5/5) Win Prob: 35.9% Value Score: 3.09 ★ ML: 6.00 (11/2) Overlay %: 4.07 Fair Odds: 5.38 (9/2) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Finish Pos | F | D |
| Dirt Speed | C | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Finish positions improving over last 4 starts. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (64%). (3) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 18 wins from 41 starts (44%). (4) Career-best speed figure (63) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (5) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (62%). (6) Trainer 'KULP BRANDON L' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Stable on Fire, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Troubled Trip Comeback, Improving Finisher.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Prompt;3p trn;2nd best. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 29 days since last race.
Mod1(W): 100 (1/5) Mod2(W): 100 (1/5) Mod3(W): 100 (1/5) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod3-LS: 88 (2/5) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/5) Win Prob: 74.3% Value Score: 2.56 ★ ML: 1.80 (9/5) Overlay %: -6.53 Fair Odds: 3.45 (5/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | A |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | A | C |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | B | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Career-best speed figure (56) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (52%). (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 77 vs field 71). (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'V']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Jockey, Late Kick Advantage, Troubled Trip Comeback.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Speed average (56) well below field median (62). (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (4) Trip note from last race: Bmpd st;4-5p;moved in.
Mod1(W): 56 (2/5) Mod2(W): 55 (2/5) Mod3(W): 50 (2/5) Mod1-LS: 62 (3/5) Mod2-LS: 58 (2/5) Mod3-LS: 63 (3/5) Mod4(Form): 82 (2/5) Win Prob: 60.4% Value Score: 2.97 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -2.40 Fair Odds: 4.58 (9/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | B | A |
| Dirt Speed | C | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | C | D |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 71 vs field 66). (2) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (3) Trainer 'KRAVETS BRUCE M' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'O', 'S', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Stable on Fire, Troubled Trip Comeback, Closer in Pace Duel, Late Kick Advantage.
⚠ Concerns:(1) First time at today's distance. (2) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (3) Today's distance is longer than any previous start. (4) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Chased3-4w;up for 3rd. (6) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (7) 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
Mod1(W): 61 (3/4) Mod2(W): 62 (4/4) Mod3(W): 86 (2/4) Mod1-LS: 74 (4/4) Mod2-LS: 63 (4/4) Mod3-LS: 56 (2/4) Mod4(Form): 33 (4/4) Win Prob: 62.1% Value Score: 3.84 ★ ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: 4.23 Fair Odds: 3.90 (7/2) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Finish Pos | A | C |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | B | D |
| Distance Speed | B | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | C |
| Route FPS | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | B | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (64%). (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 18 wins from 41 starts (44%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (62%). (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (6) Trainer 'KULP BRANDON L' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Stable on Fire, Hot Trainer, Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Troubled Trip Comeback, Sharp Gate Work.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 49 days. (2) First time at today's distance. (3) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (4) Today's distance is longer than any previous start. (5) Trip note from last race: Wide trip; stayed on. (6) Last race was career-best speed (67) — bounce risk after peak effort.
Mod1(W): 100 (1/4) Mod2(W): 100 (1/4) Mod3(W): 100 (1/4) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/4) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/4) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/4) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/4) Win Prob: 77.7% Value Score: 2.88 ★ ML: 2.00 (9/5) Overlay %: -3.51 Fair Odds: 3.26 (5/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | B | D |
| Finish Pos | B | D |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | B | D |
| Distance Speed | B | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | B | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 4 wins from 10 starts (40%). (2) Career-best speed figure (60) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Trainer 'CROOK-DEMASI KATHLEE' has 3 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (4) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Stable on Fire.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 37 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) First time at today's distance. (4) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (5) Today's distance is longer than any previous start. (6) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (7) Trip note from last race: Three wide; faltered. (8) No workout in last 30 days despite 37 days since last race.
Mod1(W): 62 (2/4) Mod2(W): 80 (2/4) Mod3(W): 67 (4/4) Mod1-LS: 95 (2/4) Mod2-LS: 80 (3/4) Mod3-LS: 0 Mod4(Form): 85 (2/4) Win Prob: 68.8% Value Score: 2.98 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -2.49 Fair Odds: 3.85 (7/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | C | D |
| Dirt Speed | B | D |
| Turf Speed | B | D |
| Distance Speed | B | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | F |
| Late Pace | B | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (70) well above field median (62). (2) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 76 vs field 71). (3) Fourth race back from a 113-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (4) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Trainer 'KRAVETS BRUCE M' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (6) Career-best figure (77) buried in races 4–10 back — 15 pts above race median and 5 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'O', 'T']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Stable on Fire, Hidden Figure, Late Kick Advantage, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 37 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Trip note from last race: 4 wide bid; kept on. (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 37 days since last race.
Mod1(W): 100 (1/5) Mod2(W): 91 (2/5) Mod3(W): 93 (3/5) Mod1-LS: 84 (3/5) Mod2-LS: 91 (2/5) Mod3-LS: 70 (3/5) Mod4(Form): 77 (3/5) Win Prob: 63.6% Value Score: 3.53 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: 0.19 Fair Odds: 4.49 (7/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | A | B |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 4 wins from 10 starts (40%). (2) Big last-race effort (70) — 9 pts above recent average. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (47%). (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Fourth race back from a 169-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (6) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Trainer 'CROOK-DEMASI KATHLEE' has 3 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Stable on Fire, Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Trip note from last race: 3w turn; rallied. (2) Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). (3) Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). (4) Last race was career-best speed (70) — bounce risk after peak effort. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race.
Mod1(W): 89 (3/5) Mod2(W): 88 (3/5) Mod3(W): 100 (1/5) Mod1-LS: 82 (4/5) Mod2-LS: 86 (3/5) Mod3-LS: 36 (4/5) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/5) Win Prob: 66.9% Value Score: 2.89 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -4.21 Fair Odds: 4.27 (7/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | D | B |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | D | B |
| Route FPS | D | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | D | B |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (49%). (2) Career-best speed figure (66) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Fourth race back from a 103-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (4) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Has won at PEN on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Won at This Distance, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Speed average (51) well below field median (62). (3) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (4 of 5 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Chased turn; tired. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 10.3 pts: [49, 66, 56, 46, 39]) — unpredictable performer.
Mod1(W): 0 Mod2(W): 0 Mod3(W): 0 Mod1-LS: 89 (2/5) Mod2-LS: 0 Mod3-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod4(Form): 0 Win Prob: 30.3% Value Score: 3.36 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 3.17 Fair Odds: 7.21 (6/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | D | D |
| Dirt Speed | D | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 61-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Career-best speed figure (73) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Has won at today's distance (1870 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Dropping in class ($10,000 vs last $12,500) after a 61-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Class Drop After Rest, Career-Best Recent Figure, Won at This Distance.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 61 days. (2) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (3) Trip note from last race: Dropped back turn. (4) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.7 pts: [51, 73, 57, 64, 68]) — unpredictable performer. (5) First start at PEN — never raced here before (last seen at: LRL).
Mod1(W): 67 (2/4) Mod2(W): 66 (3/4) Mod3(W): 58 (2/4) Mod1-LS: 59 (3/4) Mod2-LS: 61 (3/4) Mod3-LS: 0 (4/4) Mod4(Form): 78 (2/4) Win Prob: 67.7% Value Score: 2.9 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -2.38 Fair Odds: 3.77 (7/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | B | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 4 wins from 10 starts (40%). (2) Big last-race effort (64) — 14 pts above recent average. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (47%). (4) Has won at today's distance (1870 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Has won at PEN on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Trainer 'CROOK-DEMASI KATHLEE' has 3 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (7) Career-best figure (69) buried in races 4–10 back — 9 pts above race median and 5 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'U']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Stable on Fire, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Jockey, Won Here Before, Hidden Figure, Won at This Distance.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Bid3w;wrapped up 1/16. (4) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 10.7 pts: [64, 40, 51, 59, 66]) — unpredictable performer.
Mod1(W): 19 (4/4) Mod2(W): 24 (4/4) Mod3(W): 15 (4/4) Mod1-LS: 60 (2/4) Mod2-LS: 24 (4/4) Mod3-LS: 25 (2/4) Mod4(Form): 14 (4/4) Win Prob: 34.9% Value Score: 3.85 ★ ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 8.06 Fair Odds: 4.84 (9/2) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Finish Pos | C | D |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | C | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | A | D |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | B | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | B | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 41-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Dropping in class today ($16,000 → $10,000). (3) Finish positions improving over last 4 starts. (4) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (56%). (5) Big last-race effort (73) — 24 pts above recent average. (6) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 88 vs field 83). (7) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 72 vs field 69). (8) Fourth race back from a 57-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (9) Has won at today's distance (1870 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (10) Dropping in class ($10,000 vs last $16,000) after a 41-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (11) Speed improved +37 pts then +12 pts in last 2 starts (24 → 61 → 73) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (12) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'U', 'V']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (13) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Form Surge, Big Last Effort, Class Drop After Rest, Early Speed Edge, Improving Finisher, Hot Trainer, Troubled Trip Comeback, Late Kick Advantage, Class Drop, Won at This Distance, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 41 days. (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (4) Trip note from last race: Veer out st; held sway. (5) Last race was career-best speed (73) — bounce risk after peak effort. (6) Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($50,000 → $20,000 → $16,000). (7) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 18.8 pts: [73, 61, 24, 63, 61]) — unpredictable performer. (8) First start at PEN — never raced here before (last seen at: CNL, LRL). (9) Two consecutive 5+ pt speed jumps (24 → 61 → 73) and last race speed is well above career average (60) — high bounce risk after back-to-back peak efforts.
Mod1(W): 100 (1/4) Mod2(W): 100 (1/4) Mod3(W): 100 (1/4) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/4) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/4) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/4) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/4) Win Prob: 88% Value Score: 2.15 ★ ML: 1.00 Overlay %: -16.47 Fair Odds: 3.10 (5/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Finish Pos | B | D |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | C | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | B | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | B | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (64%). (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 18 wins from 41 starts (44%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (62%). (4) Track specialist — 5 wins from 8 starts here (62%). (5) Fourth race back from a 48-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (6) Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Has won at PEN on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (8) Trainer 'KULP BRANDON L' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (9) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Hot Trainer, Stable on Fire, Hot Jockey, Track Specialist, Won Here Before, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($25,000 → $40,000). (2) Trip note from last race: Trkd;split3w3/16;clear. (3) Last race was career-best speed (91) — bounce risk after peak effort. (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 28 days since last race.
Mod1(W): 60 (2/5) Mod2(W): 69 (2/5) Mod3(W): 64 (2/5) Mod1-LS: 75 (3/5) Mod2-LS: 51 (3/5) Mod3-LS: 60 (2/5) Mod4(Form): 71 (3/5) Win Prob: 54.6% Value Score: 3.06 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -0.16 Fair Odds: 4.65 (9/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | A |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | C | A |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | F | A |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | D | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | A |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | B |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (61%). (2) Big last-race effort (94) — 15 pts above recent average. (3) Consistent workout spacing (9, 7 days) — disciplined training regimen. (4) Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Returning from 399-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'L', 'S']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Averages 86.2 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 68.5 in other configs (8 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Hot Trainer, Troubled Trip Comeback, Return to Proven Setup, Sharp Return Workout, Won at This Distance.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 399 days. (2) Trip note from last race: Rail; finished well. (3) Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). (4) Last race was career-best speed (94) — bounce risk after peak effort. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.3 pts: [94, 70, 82, 85, 91]) — unpredictable performer. (6) First start at PEN — never raced here before (last seen at: LRL, BAQ).
Mod1(W): 11 (4/5) Mod2(W): 52 (4/5) Mod3(W): 47 (3/5) Mod1-LS: 77 (2/5) Mod2-LS: 47 (4/5) Mod3-LS: 0 Mod4(Form): 100 (1/5) Win Prob: 51.2% Value Score: 2.23 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -6.21 Fair Odds: 4.97 (9/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | B | A |
| Finish Pos | F | C |
| Dirt Speed | C | A |
| Turf Speed | C | B |
| Distance Speed | D | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | A |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | D | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | B |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (93) well above field median (85). (2) Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. (3) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 93 vs field 81). (4) Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Returning from 54-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Bullet Workout, Sharp Return Workout, Early Speed Edge, Won at This Distance.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 54 days. (2) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (7 of 9 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Rail; pace; weakened. (4) Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board. (5) First start at PEN — never raced here before (last seen at: LRL).
Mod1(W): 100 (1/5) Mod2(W): 100 (1/5) Mod3(W): 100 (1/5) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod4(Form): 89 (2/5) Win Prob: 75.1% Value Score: 3.74 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: 0.03 Fair Odds: 3.97 (7/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | F | A |
| Finish Pos | C | B |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | F | A |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($16,000 → $7,500). (2) Track specialist — 2 wins from 8 starts here (25%). (3) Fourth race back from a 56-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (4) Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Has won at PEN on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Trainer 'KRAVETS BRUCE M' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Stable on Fire, Class Drop, Track Specialist, Won Here Before, Won at This Distance, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (3) Trip note from last race: Saved ground;no bid. (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 29 days since last race.
Mod1(W): 71 (3/5) Mod2(W): 71 (3/5) Mod3(W): 46 (4/5) Mod1-LS: 85 (3/5) Mod2-LS: 63 (3/5) Mod3-LS: 26 (3/5) Mod4(Form): 84 (2/5) Win Prob: 66.4% Value Score: 3.28 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -2.78 Fair Odds: 4.72 (9/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | F | B |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Finish Pos | D | B |
| Dirt Speed | D | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | F | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | B |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (60%). (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 2 wins from 5 starts (40%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (52%). (4) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 84 vs field 79). (5) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (6) Fourth race back from a 72-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (7) Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Has won at PEN on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (9) Career-best figure (91) buried in races 4–10 back — 13 pts above race median and 19 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (10) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (11) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Hot Trainer, Troubled Trip Comeback, Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Hidden Figure, Won Here Before, Late Kick Advantage, Won at This Distance, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (2) Trip note from last race: Belatedly outside. (3) No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. (4) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.1 pts: [69, 72, 70, 80, 88]) — unpredictable performer.
Mod1(W): 63 (4/5) Mod2(W): 68 (4/5) Mod3(W): 55 (3/5) Mod1-LS: 45 (5/5) Mod2-LS: 63 (4/5) Mod3-LS: 3 (5/5) Mod4(Form): 70 (4/5) Win Prob: 65.5% Value Score: 4.04 ★ ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: 0.26 Fair Odds: 5.08 (9/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | B | B |
| Dirt Speed | C | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | C |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | F | B |
| Sprint FPS | C | B |
| Route FPS | D | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (64%). (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 18 wins from 41 starts (44%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (62%). (4) In the money in last 3 consecutive starts. (5) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (6) Strong speed 2 back (83), modest dip last out (74) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (7) Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Has won at PEN on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (9) Trainer 'KULP BRANDON L' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (10) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (11) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Consistent In-The-Money, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Stable on Fire, Hot Trainer, Form Reversal, Hot Jockey, Closer in Pace Duel, Won Here Before, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 35 days. (2) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (3) Trip note from last race: Bothered st;inside bid. (4) Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. (5) No workout in last 30 days despite 35 days since last race.
Mod1(W): 81 (2/5) Mod2(W): 86 (2/5) Mod3(W): 75 (2/5) Mod1-LS: 97 (2/5) Mod2-LS: 81 (2/5) Mod3-LS: 21 (4/5) Mod4(Form): 100 (1/5) Win Prob: 75.6% Value Score: 2.8 ★ ML: 2.00 (9/5) Overlay %: -8.85 Fair Odds: 4.51 (9/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Finish Pos | B | B |
| Dirt Speed | C | A |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | D | B |
| Sprint FPS | F | C |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | F | C |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Track specialist — 3 wins from 11 starts here (27%). (2) Fourth race back from a 217-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (3) Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Has won at PEN on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (5) Trainer 'KRAVETS BRUCE M' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (6) Averages 84.0 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 78.4 in other configs (5 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Stable on Fire, Track Specialist, Won Here Before, Won at This Distance, Return to Proven Setup, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (3) Trip note from last race: Chased turn; faded. (4) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.9 pts: [64, 83, 83, 84, 85]) — unpredictable performer.
Mod1(W): 63 (5/5) Mod2(W): 60 (5/5) Mod3(W): 43 (5/5) Mod1-LS: 0 Mod2-LS: 54 (5/5) Mod3-LS: 32 (2/5) Mod4(Form): 55 (5/5) Win Prob: 53% Value Score: 3.93 ★ ML: 5.00 (9/2) Overlay %: 2.51 Fair Odds: 5.25 (9/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | C |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | A | A |
| Dirt Speed | F | A |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | D | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (60%). (2) Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Has won at PEN on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (4) Career-best figure (89) buried in races 4–10 back — 11 pts above race median and 6 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Hidden Figure, Won Here Before, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback.
⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($5,000 → $7,500). (2) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (3) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (4) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (6 of 10 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Met bid;game;bested.
Mod1(W): 100 (1/5) Mod2(W): 100 (1/5) Mod3(W): 100 (1/5) Mod1-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod2-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod3-LS: 100 (1/5) Mod4(Form): 79 (3/5) Win Prob: 69.1% Value Score: 3.84 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: 1.23 Fair Odds: 4.20 (7/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- Mod1(W)
- Winner Model 1 score (0–100) — AI composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- Mod2(W)
- Winner Model 2 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod3(W)
- Winner Model 3 score (0–100) — AI rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- Mod1-LS
- Longshot Model 1 score (0–100) — AI model trained to surface high-value longshots. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Mod2-LS
- Longshot Model 2 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod3-LS
- Longshot Model 3 score (0–100) — AI longshot model. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
- Mod4(Form)
- Form Model score (0–100) — AI sequence model trained on recent form patterns to capture momentum and trajectory. Higher = stronger recent form profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
- Win Prob
- LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
- Value Score
- Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Figure Comparison
- Rating
- The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
- Speed
- Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
- Pace
- Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
- This horse
- The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.
Winning Profiles
- Axes
- X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
- Quadrants
- Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory. - Reference Lines
- Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.
AI Model Comparison
- Winner Models (green)
- Mod1(W), Mod2(W), and Mod3(W) trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
- Longshot Models (red)
- Mod1-LS, Mod2-LS, and Mod3-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
- Form Model (blue)
- Mod4 sequence model trained on recent form patterns. Higher score = stronger recent form profile.
- This horse
- Highlighted with a darker column background.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | A |
| Pace Trip Longshot | — | — |
| Connections Longshot | — | — |
| Situational Longshot | — | — |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | F | B |
| Finish Pos | F | C |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | C | B |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
TL;DR
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Pick Pony Handicapper Report — Penn National, April 24, 2026
Fast main track, light northwest winds, mid-50s at first post. Inside-to-mid posts favored in sprints; bias moderates in routes. Key angles: Kulp-Rodriguez combination, Crook-DeMasi double entries in Race 4, and Toledo's lone mount in Race 5.
Race 1 — 1320f | OClm 16000
Clarely Tom (2) is the top selection from a favorable draw with a strong trainer-jockey pairing. Benny's Candy Man (3) is the co-favorite and a genuine pace threat. Souper Vinnie (1) can steal this if the pace softens; Torotoro (4) is the trifecta saver if the leaders overextend.
Race 2 — 1320f | Md 16000
Leonidas Stand (4) is the standout in this maiden sprint with a quality connections edge. The Beast Master (6) is the main danger despite the outside draw. Batant (2) is a potential overlay near 6-1 with a favorable rail-adjacent post.
Race 3 — 1870f | Md Sp Wt
Gurt's Reward (2) gets an ideal setup from Post 2 in the five-horse route. Sea Eff P T O (3) is an equally legitimate co-favorite and merits exacta inclusion. Let'em Hate (1) is the best longshot angle at 4-1 with a ground-saving rail draw.
Race 4 — 1320f | OClm 16000
Edge Of The Blade (3) is the top selection in a Crook-DeMasi barn double entry. MUSIC CLARIFICATION (1) is the companion barn entry and nearly as dangerous with Rodriguez aboard. Java Tales (2) offers the best value outside the barn pair; Spicy Bubba (4) is a small trifecta lottery play with Corujo.
Race 5 — 1870f | Clm 10000n2l
As The Bell Toles (5) is the dominant selection and the single best bet of the card, underscored by Toledo's lone appearance. Nobody's Girl (3) is the clear second choice and the logical exacta partner. Briscoe County (4) at 8-1 is a live trifecta inclusion given the Crook-DeMasi-Torres combination.
Race 6 — 1830f | OClm 40000b
Assume Nothing (3) is the horse to beat in the feature from a prime mid-field draw. Certified Loverboy (6) at 3-1 is the top value play and best exacta alternative. Kissthemoon (2) at 4-1 with the Kulp-Rodriguez combination is the best individual value on the card and merits a straight win bet.
Race 7 — 1830f | Clm 7500n1y
Skimble Shanks (4) is the anchor of the closing race backed by the Kulp-Rodriguez partnership. Commingling (1) and Metalhead (2) are the primary challengers, with the Kreiser barn double of Metalhead (2) and What Does It Take (6) adding an exotic wagering angle. Town's Warrior (5) at 5-1 is worth including underneath in trifectas as the second Kravets barn entry.
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✓ Positives:(1) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (52%). (2) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Trainer 'KRAVETS BRUCE M' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (4) Career-best figure (77) buried in races 4–10 back — 9 pts above race median and 6 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'F', 'O', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Stable on Fire, Hot Jockey, Hidden Figure, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback.