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Del Mar concludes another exciting weekend of thoroughbred racing with an eleven-race card featuring quality action across both dirt and turf surfaces. The highlight of Sunday’s program includes the Shared Belief Stakes, a one-mile dirt contest for three-year-olds that has drawn a competitive field of five runners. First post time is scheduled for 1:30 PM Pacific with racing continuing through the evening hours.
Weather Forecast and Track Conditions
Sunday’s racing will take place under favorable conditions with mostly clear skies and temperatures reaching a high of 76°F with lows around 66°F. Current weather reports indicate fair conditions with 73°F temperatures and west winds at 5 mph. The forecast calls for mostly clear conditions, which should provide ideal racing weather for both surfaces.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – Claiming Race (1 Mile, Turf)
Post Time: 1:30 PM
This six-horse claiming contest on the grass features several runners coming off recent local efforts.
Key Contenders:
Tariff enters as the morning line favorite at 8-5 after scoring a narrow victory at this same distance last month, defeating Earned Not Given by a head margin. The Peter Eurton trainee showed determination in that effort and figures prominently with regular rider Antonio Fresu aboard.
Earned Not Given finished second to Tariff in that recent encounter and returns with the same connections of trainer Mark Glatt and jockey Umberto Rispoli. The narrow defeat suggests this War of Will gelding remains competitive at this level.
Secondary Choices:
Call Me Sir makes his return to claiming company for trainer Mark Glatt with Kent Desormeaux taking the mount. This Sir Prancealot runner showed promise earlier in his career but has been facing tougher competition recently.
Comininalittlehot finished third behind Tariff last time and could benefit from that race experience under Kazushi Kimura.
Longshots to Consider:
Press Your Luck comes in fresh off a second-place finish in a sprint race and stretches out to a mile. The I’ll Have Another gelding could offer value at 8-1 morning line odds.
Suggested Selections: Tariff to win, with Earned Not Given and Call Me Sir as the most logical contenders in exotic wagers.
Race 2 – Shared Belief Stakes (1 Mile, Dirt)
Post Time: 2:00 PM
This $125,000 stakes race has attracted a competitive field of five three-year-olds.
Key Contenders:
Citizen Bull headlines the field as the 7-5 morning line favorite for trainer Bob Baffert. This Into Mischief colt represents the powerful Baffert stable that has been dominant at the current meeting.
Gaming also represents the Baffert barn at 9-5 morning line odds and provides stable depth. The Game Winner colt offers another strong option from the leading trainer.
Secondary Choices:
Privman rounds out the major contenders at 2-1 morning line odds for the Baffert stable, making this essentially a three-horse Baffert parade.
Suggested Selections: The Baffert trio dominates this race, with Citizen Bull appearing to hold a slight edge based on morning line odds.
Race 6 Detailed Analysis – Maiden Special Weight
Race Overview
Race 6 is a Maiden Special Weight contest for 2-year-old colts and geldings at 6 furlongs on the main dirt track with a purse of $100,000. This juvenile sprint should favor precocious types with speed-oriented pedigrees who can handle the one-turn configuration at Del Mar.
Field Analysis
Kristofferson emerges as the morning line favorite at 2-1 odds from post position 5. As the top selection in expert analysis, this runner appears to possess the combination of breeding and training that suggests readiness for debut success. The moderate morning line suggests confidence from connections and handicappers alike.
Falcon Jet draws post position 7 with morning line odds of 3-1, making him the second choice. The colt rates as a logical contender based on his expected finishing position and represents solid value in the second tier of contenders.
Rio Grande rounds out the main contenders from post 6 at 4-1 morning line odds. This runner provides depth to the top tier and could benefit from a favorable pace scenario developing in front of him.
Secondary Contenders
Mr. A. P. offers potential value at 8-1 morning line odds from the outside post position 8. While ranking fourth in expected order of finish, the longer odds could provide wagering value if connections believe the colt is ready to fire fresh.
The middle tier includes Rich Night, Beers On Me, and Out of the Woods, each carrying 12-1 morning line odds. These runners represent the second division but could factor if the favorites encounter trouble or fail to fire in their debuts.
Longshots
Sharons Angels and Plagarist round out the field at 15-1 morning line odds from posts 9 and 1 respectively. These runners face significant challenges based on expert analysis but provide exotic wager insurance at generous odds.
Pace Analysis
With three Baffert trainees mentioned in the field, pace dynamics become crucial in this juvenile maiden race. First-time starters often show varying levels of gate readiness, which can create an uneven pace scenario. The six-furlong distance on Del Mar’s one-turn configuration typically favors horses with tactical speed who can secure good position early.
Key Handicapping Angles
The presence of multiple first-time starters makes this race particularly challenging from a handicapping perspective. Key factors include:
Breeding Patterns: Juveniles with speed-oriented pedigrees typically show better readiness for debut success in six-furlong maiden races.
Training Patterns: Recent workout patterns and gate schooling often provide crucial insights into debut readiness for 2-year-olds.
Connections: Trainers with strong juvenile programs historically perform well in maiden special weight contests at Del Mar.
Wagering Strategy
Win Betting: Kristofferson represents the logical choice based on favoritism and expert analysis, though the 2-1 odds limit value.
Exacta Play: A top-heavy exacta using Kristofferson over Falcon Jet and Rio Grande provides reasonable coverage of the most likely scenarios.
Value Play: Mr. A. P. at 8-1 offers the best risk-reward ratio among legitimate contenders.
Race Projection
This is a competitive maiden race where class and readiness will separate the contenders. The moderate pace should favor horses with tactical speed, making post position less critical than in some juvenile races. Kristofferson holds the edge based on expert analysis, but the nature of first-time starter races always introduces uncertainty that can create opportunities for alert handicappers.
The key to this race lies in identifying which runner combines natural ability with debut readiness, as many promising juveniles need a race or two to reach their potential.
Race 9 Analysis – Caesars Sportsbook Del Mar Derby (Grade 2T)
Race Overview
Race 9 features the Caesars Sportsbook Del Mar Derby, a Grade 2 turf stakes at 1 1/8 miles for 3-year-olds with a substantial purse that attracts quality runners from across the country. This prestigious event serves as a key stepping stone for young horses developing their turf careers and often produces future stars of the grass division.
Key Contenders
Iron Man Cal enters as the morning line favorite at 2-1 odds and represents the logical choice based on expert analysis. This runner has shown the combination of class and turf aptitude needed to succeed at this level. The moderate favoritism suggests genuine respect from handicappers while still offering reasonable value for supporters.
The Padre (IRE) brings European breeding and experience to the contest as the second choice at 5-2 morning line odds. European-bred runners often possess the stamina and turf pedigree that translates well to American grass racing, particularly at the classic 1 1/8-mile distance. The import factor adds intrigue to his chances.
Freedom’s Not Free rounds out the top tier at 3-1 morning line odds from a prominent stable. This runner provides domestic depth to complement the international flavor and should be well-suited to the distance and surface combination.
Secondary Contenders
Game Warrior offers the best value play among legitimate contenders at 6-1 morning line odds. The longer price suggests some question marks, but also provides the best risk-reward ratio for handicappers seeking value in a competitive Grade 2 event.
Geometry brings additional depth to the middle tier and could benefit from a favorable pace scenario developing ahead of him. The mathematical precision suggested by his name may extend to his racing style and tactical approach.
Mythical Reel (IRE) adds another European dimension to the field with Irish breeding that typically translates well to American turf racing. The mythical connections suggest a runner with untapped potential at this level.
Pace Analysis
The 1 1/8-mile turf distance at Del Mar typically produces honest pace scenarios where tactical speed proves advantageous. The long stretch run allows closers to make their moves, but horses with good position entering the final turn often hold significant advantages.
European imports like The Padre and Mythical Reel may bring different tactical approaches that could disrupt typical American pace patterns. The presence of multiple running styles should create a fair and honest gallop that rewards the best horse on the day.
Key Handicapping Angles
Surface Specialization: Turf racing requires specific skills and breeding patterns that differ from dirt racing. Horses with proven grass form hold significant advantages.
Distance Suitability: The 1 1/8-mile distance represents a classic test that separates genuine middle-distance runners from pure sprinters or extreme stayers.
Class Level: Grade 2 company represents a significant step up from allowance or ungraded stakes competition. Proven stakes performers hold clear advantages.
International Factor: The presence of European-bred runners adds complexity to pace and tactical considerations.
Wagering Strategy
Win Betting: Iron Man Cal offers the most logical choice at reasonable odds, though the 2-1 price limits pure value considerations.
Value Play: Game Warrior at 6-1 provides the best combination of legitimate winning chances with meaningful payoff potential.
Exacta Strategy: Using Iron Man Cal on top with The Padre and Freedom’s Not Free provides coverage of the most likely finishing combinations while maintaining reasonable costs.
Exotic Coverage: The competitive nature of Grade 2 company suggests spreading tickets in trifecta and superfecta wagers to capture potential upsets in the lower positions.
Race Projection
This Del Mar Derby shapes up as a competitive renewal featuring a blend of domestic talent and international breeding. The turf surface and classic distance should produce a fair test that rewards quality and class over pure speed or tactical advantages.
Iron Man Cal appears to possess the edge in class and consistency, but the presence of European imports and value contenders creates multiple scenarios for exotic wager construction. The Grade 2 level ensures that any winner will have earned the victory through legitimate talent and effort.
The race should unfold with honest early pace that sets up a legitimate stretch drive where the best horse can prevail. This type of scenario typically favors proven stakes performers with tactical speed who can secure good position without expending excessive energy in the early stages.
Race 10 Analysis – Allowance Optional Claiming
Race Overview
Race 10 is an $81,000 Allowance Optional Claiming contest for 3-year-olds and up at 1 1/16 miles on the main dirt track. This competitive middle-tier event features horses that can either be claimed for $62,500 or run for straight allowance conditions, creating an interesting dynamic between class and risk assessment for connections.
Key Contenders
Good With People emerges as the morning line favorite at 5-2 odds from post position 7. This runner showed encouraging signs when returning from a year-long layoff on August 2, finishing a respectable third in his comeback effort. The lengthy absence suggests connections believe he needed time to return to peak form, and this second start off the bench could produce significant improvement. His proven ability at this class level combined with the freshening pattern makes him the logical choice.
Captain Sparrow represents the primary threat from post 5 at 3-1 morning line odds. Drawing the rail-adjacent post provides tactical flexibility for connections to either press the pace or sit just off the leaders. The moderate odds suggest genuine respect from handicappers while maintaining reasonable value for supporters.
Clampett rounds out the top tier at 7-2 morning line odds from the favorable post 4 position. This runner brings consistent form to the contest and should benefit from the inside draw that allows for multiple tactical options depending on how the pace develops.
Secondary Contenders
Grubauer offers the best value among legitimate contenders at 5-1 morning line odds from the rail post. The inside draw could prove advantageous if the pace sets up favorably, though it also carries the risk of getting trapped behind a slow pace scenario.
Shea Brennan sits at 8-1 morning line odds from post 3, providing depth to the second tier. The middle post position offers tactical flexibility without the potential complications of extreme inside or outside draws.
Longshots and Value Plays
Centrodelantero and Western Freedom both carry 12-1 morning line odds from posts 8 and 6 respectively. These runners represent the second division but could factor if the favorites encounter trouble or fail to bring their best efforts.
Lawless World rounds out the field at 15-1 from post 2, facing significant class and form challenges but providing exotic wager insurance at generous odds.
Pace Analysis
The 1 1/16-mile distance typically produces honest pace scenarios where tactical speed proves advantageous. With Good With People returning from the layoff and likely needing some racing room, the pace dynamics could favor horses with natural gate speed who can secure good early position.
Key Handicapping Angles
Layoff Pattern: Good With People’s return from extended absence represents the primary angle to consider. Second starts off layoffs often produce significant improvement, particularly for horses that showed ability before the break.
Class Evaluation: The optional claiming structure creates interesting dynamics where some connections may be more willing to risk their horses than others, potentially creating value opportunities.
Distance Suitability: The 1 1/16-mile distance requires proven route ability and stamina that separates genuine middle-distance runners from pure sprinters.
Post Position Impact: The spread of contenders across the starting gate creates multiple pace scenarios depending on early tactical decisions.
Wagering Strategy
Win Betting: Good With People represents the logical choice based on class, connections, and the second-start-off-layoff angle, though the 5-2 odds limit pure value considerations.
Value Play: Grubauer at 5-1 offers the best risk-reward ratio among horses with legitimate winning chances, particularly if the pace sets up favorably for rail runners.
Exacta Strategy: Keying Good With People on top with Captain Sparrow and Clampett provides coverage of the most likely finishing combinations while maintaining reasonable ticket costs.
Longshot Consideration: The competitive nature of allowance company creates opportunities for moderate upsets, making Shea Brennan at 8-1 worth consideration in exotic wagers.
Race Projection
This allowance optional claiming contest should develop into a competitive affair where class, current condition, and tactical positioning determine the outcome. Good With People’s combination of proven ability and natural improvement from the layoff pattern gives him clear advantages over the field.
The pace should develop honestly with multiple speed types ensuring a fair test of stamina and class. The winner will likely come from the top tier of contenders, though the competitive nature of this class level always creates potential for moderate surprises.
Race 11 Analysis – Allowance Optional Claiming (Turf)
Race Overview
Race 11 is an $81,000 Allowance Optional Claiming contest exclusively for California-bred or California-sired fillies and mares, three years old and upward, at one mile on the turf course. Post time is scheduled for 6:31 PM. This race features conditions for horses that have never won $21,000 once other than maiden, claiming, or starter races, or have never won two races, with a claiming option at $20,000.
The race has drawn a competitive field of 14 entries, including two also-eligibles, creating a challenging handicapping puzzle with multiple viable contenders spread across different price ranges.
Key Contenders
Theresasilverlinin draws the advantageous rail post and emerges as the top selection despite never having raced on turf in 16 career starts. This 5-year-old daughter of Stanford possesses strong turf pedigree on both sides that suggests she should handle the surface change effectively. She exits an encouraging second-place finish over the main track on July 27 at one mile and returns with top turf pilot Hector Berrios aboard. The combination of the rail draw and her ability to be on or close to the early lead provides significant tactical advantages in a competitive field.
Kikuride represents the most proven turf performer in the field, having hit the board in all four lifetime grass attempts for trainer Craig Lewis. She exits her career-best turf Beyer speed figure of 74 from July 31 when finishing second against several of today’s returning rivals. At 3-1 morning line odds with Juan Hernandez taking the mount, she offers solid value as the horse with the most reliable turf form.
Summer Lake enters from the also-eligible list at 7-2 morning line odds and could provide significant value if she draws into the main body of the race. Her recent form pattern and connections suggest she belongs with this competitive group.
Secondary Contenders
Quantum Innergy sits at 9-2 morning line odds with Tyler Baze aboard and represents another logical contender from post 11. The outside draw could prove advantageous if the pace develops favorably, allowing her to secure a good stalking position.
Breve offers value at 5-1 morning line odds from post 8 with Antonio Fresu taking the mount. This Will Take Charge daughter brings solid recent form to the contest and should benefit from the experienced rider’s turf expertise.
Hey Demps adds blinkers back on following her recent purchase by Mark Glatt for $25,000 on August 7. She worked sharply on August 21, firing five furlongs in 59.3 seconds, and makes her third start of the current form cycle. The 5-year-old mare has finished fourth in her last three attempts but could be poised for improvement with Kent Desormeaux returning to the saddle.
Longshots and Value Plays
True Patriot adds blinkers and sits at 8-1 morning line odds from post 10. The equipment change combined with the moderate price could provide wagering value if connections believe the gear adjustment will produce improvement.
Ashleys Sandcastle represents another also-eligible at 5-1 odds with Antonio Fresu aboard for trainer Philip D’Amato. If she draws into the race, her connections and rider combination suggest legitimate contention.
The longest shots include Dontmesswithtess at 20-1, Cooling Off at 30-1, and several others in the 12-1 to 15-1 range who face significant class and form challenges but provide exotic wager insurance.
Pace Analysis
The one-mile turf distance typically produces tactical racing where early positioning proves crucial without requiring excessive early speed. Theresasilverlinin’s ability to secure the lead or sit just off the pace from the rail provides a significant advantage in a race that may lack genuine early speed.
The wide post positions for several contenders could create opportunities for horses with natural gate speed to secure favorable stalking positions, while closers may find traffic challenges in a competitive 14-horse field.
Key Handicapping Angles
Surface Switching: Theresasilverlinin’s first attempt on turf represents both the primary risk and potential advantage, as horses with proper turf breeding often improve dramatically when finding their preferred surface.
California-Bred Restrictions: The race conditions limit the field to state-bred horses, creating a more level playing field where form and current condition become paramount factors.
Class Consistency: The allowance optional claiming structure ensures most horses are competing at appropriate levels, making recent form and tactical advantages more significant than pure class considerations.
Trainer Patterns: Several trainers in the race show strong turf statistics that support their entries’ chances, particularly with proven grass riders aboard.
Wagering Strategy
Win Betting: Theresasilverlinin represents the logical choice based on tactical advantages and pedigree, though the surface switch creates some uncertainty.
Value Play: Kikuride at 3-1 offers the best combination of proven turf form and reasonable odds among the top tier of contenders.
Exacta Strategy: Using Theresasilverlinin and Kikuride in the top two positions provides coverage of the most likely scenarios while maintaining reasonable costs.
Longshot Consideration: Hey Demps with the blinkers addition and strong recent workout pattern could provide surprise value at 10-1 odds.
Race Projection
This California-bred fillies and mares turf contest should develop into a competitive affair where tactical positioning and surface aptitude determine the outcome. Theresasilverlinin’s combination of advantageous post position, early speed, and untapped turf potential gives her clear advantages despite the surface question.
The pace should develop moderately with multiple horses capable of pressing or stalking the leaders, setting up a scenario where the horse with the best combination of class, condition, and tactical positioning can prevail. The restricted nature of the race creates opportunities for horses that might struggle in open company but can compete effectively within their breeding divisions.
Jockey Notes and Insights
The current jockey standings show a tight battle for leading rider honors. Juan Hernandez leads in earnings with over $2.25 million and six stakes victories. Antonio Fresu, Hector Berrios, and Kazushi Kimura have each surpassed $1 million in earnings during the meet.
Umberto Rispoli enjoyed a strong week recently, winning six races and bringing his total to 11 victories, tied with Armando Ayuso for second place. The Italian rider’s hot streak makes him a jockey to follow in upcoming races.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Bob Baffert maintains a commanding lead in the trainer standings with 16 victories and over $1.53 million in earnings. His dominance is particularly evident in stakes races where he’s tied for the lead with four victories alongside Philip D’Amato.
The battle for second place remains tight with Philip D’Amato, Mark Glatt, and John Sadler each holding 11 victories. D’Amato has also crossed the $1 million earnings threshold with $1,089,580.
Peter Miller, George Papaprodromou, Doug O’Neill, and Peter Eurton round out the leading trainers, each showing consistent success throughout the meet.
Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Given the limited field sizes in several races, particularly the five-horse Shared Belief Stakes, exacta and trifecta wagers may provide better value than traditional win betting. The Baffert dominance in Race 2 suggests keying his runners in multi-race wagers.
For handicappers seeking value, the claiming races often provide opportunities with longer-priced runners who may be dropping in class or returning from layoffs with tactical advantages.
Best Value Plays:
- Race 1: Press Your Luck at 8-1 offers potential value in a competitive claiming race
- Multi-race wagers incorporating Baffert runners in the Shared Belief Stakes may provide solid foundation plays
Expert Picks for Del Mar – August 31, 2025
Race-by-Race Expert Picks
Race 1 – Claiming (Turf)
- Top Pick: Tariff (1.60 ML)
- Second Choice: Earned Not Given (3.00 ML)
- Third Choice: Comininalittlehot (3.50 ML)
- Longshot: Press Your Luck (8.00 ML)
Race 2 – Shared Belief Stakes
- Top Pick: Citizen Bull (1.40 ML)
- Second Choice: Gaming (1.80 ML)
- Third Choice: Privman (2.00 ML)
- Longshot: Smooth Cruisein (10.00 ML)
Race 3 – Maiden Claiming
- Top Pick: Wave With Envy (Scratched)
- Alternative Top Pick: Wicked Wit (Scratched)
- Live Pick: Stanford Dropout (1.80 ML)
- Value Play: Smokem and Love (5.00 ML)
Race 4 – Claiming
- Top Pick: Last Call Zondlo (3.50 ML)
- Second Choice: Zombo Bombo (4.00 ML)
- Third Choice: Gunnin for Gold (6.00 ML)
- Value Play: Naismith (8.00 ML)
Race 5 – Maiden Claiming
- Top Pick: Gigi’s Girl (Scratched)
- Live Pick: Unbinding (GB) (3.00 ML)
- Second Choice: Frog (4.00 ML)
- Third Choice: Moonlit Courage (5.00 ML)
Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight
- Top Pick: Kristofferson (2.00 ML)
- Second Choice: Falcon Jet (3.00 ML)
- Third Choice: Rio Grande (4.00 ML)
- Longshot: Mr. A. P. (8.00 ML)
Race 7 – Starter Allowance
- Top Pick: Ima Joker (3.00 ML)
- Second Choice: O K Rose (4.00 ML)
- Third Choice: Giggle Giggle (4.50 ML)
- Value Play: Tiaraqueen (GB) (6.00 ML)
Race 8 – Maiden Claiming
- Top Pick: Tiger Fire (3.00 ML)
- Second Choice: Calm Down Kimmie (3.50 ML)
- Third Choice: Ride Elbow Ranch (4.00 ML)
- Value Play: West Fresno (5.00 ML)
Race 9 – Del Mar Derby (Grade 2)
- Top Pick: Iron Man Cal (2.00 ML)
- Second Choice: The Padre (IRE) (2.50 ML)
- Third Choice: Freedom’s Not Free (3.00 ML)
- Longshot: Game Warrior (6.00 ML)
Race 10 – Allowance Optional Claiming
- Top Pick: Good With People (2.50 ML)
- Second Choice: Captain Sparrow (3.00 ML)
- Third Choice: Clampett (3.50 ML)
- Value Play: Grubauer (5.00 ML)
Race 11 – Allowance Optional Claiming
- Top Pick: Kikuride (3.00 ML)
- Second Choice: Summer Lake (3.50 ML)
- Third Choice: Quantum Innergy (4.50 ML)
- Value Play: Breve (5.00 ML)
Consensus Selections Summary
Top Picks by Race:
- Tariff
- Citizen Bull
- Stanford Dropout (with scratches)
- Last Call Zondlo
- Unbinding (GB) (with scratches)
- Kristofferson
- Ima Joker
- Tiger Fire
- Iron Man Cal
- Good With People
- Kikuride
Expert Analysis Notes
The algorithmic selections show strong favorites in several races, particularly in Race 2 where Bob Baffert’s Citizen Bull draws significant support. The Shared Belief Stakes features a competitive field where Citizen Bull holds slight preference over stablemates Gaming and Privman.
Several races show scratched horses that were originally top selections, particularly in the maiden claiming events. Handicappers should verify the final field before wagering as late scratches can significantly impact race dynamics.
The Del Mar Derby in Race 9 appears wide open with Iron Man Cal holding favoritism over European import The Padre (IRE).
