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Belmont at the Big A – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the May 25, 2026 card

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Race Day Overview — Belmont at the Big A, May 25, 2026

The 2026 Belmont Stakes meet at Aqueduct (Belmont at the Big A) rolls on this Memorial Day Monday with an eleven-race card headlined by a mix of claiming races, maiden events, and allowance conditions spread across both the main track and turf course. The meet has been generating significant buzz in the racing press given the backdrop of Belmont Stakes preparations dominating the headlines, with Chad Brown sending out three hopefuls in Saturday workouts and the Golden Tempo–Renegade rematch drawing enormous attention leading into the June 7 classic.

Today's card at the Big A is a workmanlike Memorial Day Monday slate, featuring nine races with purses ranging from $37,000 in the fourth race claiming event up to $85,000 in the fifth-race maiden special weight on the turf. The jockey colony is well-represented with Manuel Franco, Jamie Rodriguez, Dylan Davis, Edgard Zayas, Jose Lezcano, Kendrick Carmouche, and J.J. Castellano all aboard. The trainer bench is equally deep, with Brad Cox, Linda Rice, Chad Brown, Todd Pletcher, William Mott, and Miguel Clement all saddling horses today.

Notably, the meet opened on a dramatic note on Friday when Ashcroft Lane, a son of freshman sire Keepmeinmind, rolled home in the Belmont Big A opener through wind and sideways rain to become the first winner for that freshman stallion. That weather event bears directly on today's setup, as the track crew has been managing both the main dirt surface and the inner turf course following that significant rainfall. Today's racing shapes up as a genuine test of surface management and handicapping skill across a card loaded with nuance.

Weather and Track Conditions

Memorial Day weekend 2026 in the New York metropolitan area has been characterized by unsettled weather patterns, with the Friday rainfall referenced in the Ashcroft Lane maiden report confirming that the region received meaningful precipitation heading into the weekend. For today, May 25, forecasts indicate partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s Fahrenheit, a marked improvement from the Friday storm. Winds are expected from the southwest at 10 to 15 mph, which should have little material impact on racing surfaces at Aqueduct.

The main dirt track is expected to be listed as fast by post time after a full weekend of drying following Friday's rain, though there is some possibility of a good rating depending on how thoroughly the surface rebounded. The Big A main track has historically been one of the better-maintained dirt surfaces in the NYRA circuit, and the maintenance crew has had Saturday and Sunday to address any remaining soft spots. first post.

The inner turf course, which hosts Races 2, 3, 5, and 9 today, is the greater area of concern. The turf at Aqueduct has been known to take longer to recover from significant rainfall than the main track, and given the Friday storm, there is real possibility that some turf races could be moved to the main track or the turf could be listed as yielding or soft. Today's card includes multiple turf events coded with alternate surface options (the B-U-M and B-U-N designations confirming main track as the alternative surface). The late scratch of turf runners for a wet course remains a live possibility, and bettors in Races 2, 3, 5, and 9 should have contingency plans for surface changes. Watch for the official track condition report and any pre-race scratches as the morning progresses.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Aqueduct's main track has historically shown a moderate speed bias, particularly at the route distances. The one-turn mile and longer distances can occasionally favor closers when the pace scenario heats up, but in general, horses that can establish position in the first two turns at the Big A enjoy a meaningful advantage. The inside posts at the classic distances here have produced mixed results historically — the rail can be golden when the surface is sealed and true, but can be a disadvantage in the immediate post-rain period when the rail path gets chopped up and the track maintenance crew has not had sufficient time to freshen the footing.

At the sprint distance of 1320 feet (six furlongs) on the main track, which applies to Races 1, 4, and 8 today, the chute start at Aqueduct allows runners to straighten out before the first turn and the inside post advantage is less pronounced than at other layouts. However, horses that can clear to the lead or sit a comfortable stalking position from the inside are not at a disadvantage. Pace will be the dominant factor in the sprint races.

For the turf events, post position bias on the Aqueduct inner turf becomes significant. At 1870 feet and 2420 feet — the distances for Races 2 and 5 — an inside draw carries meaningful value on a turf course that tightens considerably on the final turn. The 1320-foot turf sprints (Races 3 and 9) run on the straight chute, which neutralizes much of the post draw concern, though horses away from the rail can find themselves racing wider than ideal on a choppy surface. Given the wet weather earlier this week, horses with proven good-to-firm and soft turf experience are at a premium, and trainers with strong wet-turf records bear particular attention.

RACE 1 — Post (1:10) — 1320f | D | C | Clm 35000n2l | Purse $45,000

This six-furlong dirt sprint opens the card with a field of six for non-winners of two lifetime at the $35,000 claiming level. The restricted conditions bring together a compact group with varying levels of experience, and the post draw here is relatively benign given the chute start. This figures to be a pace-contested sprint with at least three horses capable of pressing early fractions.

Race 1

Pace Analysis

The early pace scenario here has multiple horses that want to be on the lead. Toga D'oro (POST 1) from the Richard Dutrow barn figures to be aggressive early out of the rail. The Toy Cannon (POST 2) is trained by Brad Cox, whose horses often break alertly and establish good position. Momentum Files (POST 5) from the Rudy Rodriguez stable rounds out the likely early pressers. With three horses capable of setting or pressing the pace, the fractions could get honest or even hot in a short six-furlong sprint, which opens the door for a pace-presser or closer to pick up the pieces in the final furlong.

Key Contenders

The Toy Cannon (POST 2) is the horse to beat at 2-1 morning line odds. Brad Cox is one of the most accomplished conditioners in American racing, and when he ships a horse to Belmont at the Big A off a qualifying effort, it typically means the horse is ready to fire. Manuel Franco gets the mount, and Franco has been one of the leading riders at this meet. The 2-1 morning line reflects genuine public confidence, and Cox horses in claiming company at this level have a strong conversion rate when they are meant.

Ican (POST 3) is co-listed at 2-1 on the morning line under Linda Rice, who is an elite trainer on the NYRA circuit. Jamie Rodriguez takes the mount, and Rodriguez has been building his book of business in New York effectively. Rice has an exceptional record placing horses in conditions where they are well-spotted, and Ican (POST 3) at this class level for non-winners of two warrants serious consideration as a co-favorite.

Secondary Choices

Toga D'oro (POST 1) at 4-1 is trained by Richard Dutrow, who despite the challenges of recent years remains capable of sending out live horses. The rail in a six-furlong sprint from the chute is not a death post, and if Toga D'oro (POST 1) breaks alertly and establishes a clear lead through comfortable fractions, the inside post becomes an asset in the stretch run. The 4-1 morning line undervalues what could be a pace-controlling effort.

Momentum Files (POST 5) at 3-1 is another legitimate threat. Rudy Rodriguez is active on the NYRA circuit and consistently saddles competitive horses at the claiming level. Ruben Silvera takes the mount, and the outside post in a sprint means no traffic issues whatsoever. If the pace collapses from a contentious early duel, Momentum Files (POST 5) is positioned to sweep past late.

Longshots

Mike's Magic (POST 4) at 8-1 from the Timothy Hills barn with Dylan Davis aboard is a price that could attract some action if this horse has shown any ability in recent works or prior starts. Hills is a competent conditioner at the Big A, and Davis is an underrated rider whose mounts frequently run better than their prices suggest.

Constant Chaos (POST 6) at 20-1 under trainer David Duggan with J.J. Castellano up is a fascinating betting curiosity. Castellano is one of the premier jockeys in North American racing, and when a rider of his caliber takes a 20-1 longshot in a six-horse field, it demands attention. There is some angle here worth monitoring — whether Castellano has been booked by the connections for a legitimate reason or whether this is simply a favor ride will become clearer at the paddock.

Selections

Win: The Toy Cannon (POST 2) Place: Ican (POST 3) Show: Toga D'oro (POST 1)

RACE 2 — Post (1:38) — 1870f | T | C | Clm 40000 | Purse $65,000

Nine horses line up for this turf route at approximately 11.5 furlongs for claimers at the $40,000 level. This is a non-winners condition race on the inner turf, and the surface status bears enormous weight here. If the turf is deemed good or better, the inside posts carry real value at this distance on the Aqueduct inner course. The field size of nine makes pace dynamics complex and favors horses that can settle within themselves and produce a sustained late run.

Race 2

Pace Analysis

At a turf route distance of 1870 feet on a course that can get congested in the early stages, pace is likely to be moderate to slow early before accelerating in the final quarter mile. With Ocean Atlantique (POST 2) installed as the even-money morning line favorite from the Joe Sharp barn, that horse's running style will set the tone. Routes on the Aqueduct inner turf tend to produce single-file processions with pace honest enough to allow closers, but the premium here remains on horses that can travel comfortably near the front or just off it without expending unnecessary energy.

Key Contenders

Ocean Atlantique (POST 2) is the morning line favorite at 1-1 under trainer Joe Sharp with Manuel Franco taking the mount. Sharp has been an underrated trainer in terms of his turf statistics, and Ocean Atlantique (POST 2) benefits from an inside post at a distance where getting a clean trip from the start is critical. Franco's experience at this meet gives this horse a clean tactical advantage.

Frizzante (POST 8) at 2-1 from the Linda Rice stable with Jamie Rodriguez returning to ride is one of the strongest plays on the entire card from a trainer angle standpoint. Rice dominates turf claiming races at this level in New York, and when she enters a horse as a favorite or near-favorite in this condition, the conversion rate is among the highest of any trainer in the colony. Rodriguez has ridden this type of Rice turf claimer to victory before, and the outside post at this distance on the inner course is a manageable draw.

Castle Chaos (POST 9) is co-listed at 2-1 and is also from the Kantarmaci barn, with Manuel Franco also listed — though with Franco also aboard Ocean Atlantique (POST 2), there may be a jockey change to monitor here. The Kantarmaci operation runs multiple horses in the same race occasionally, and the 2-1 morning line price on Castle Chaos (POST 9) out of the far outside post warrants scrutiny regarding which of the Kantarmaci trio is the stable's intended winner.

Secondary Choices

Classic Creation (POST 6) at 4-1 from the John Terranova barn with Dylan Davis is a legitimate contender at this claiming level. Terranova has demonstrated proficiency on the turf, and Davis is comfortable in turf routes. The middle post position at this distance is workable.

Determinedly (POST 7) at 8-1 from the Kantarmaci stable with Silvestre Gonzalez up gives the Kantarmaci connections a third runner in this race. At 8-1, Determinedly (POST 7) may be the least-intended of the three Kantarmaci horses, but the price compensates for the uncertainty.

Longshots

American Grant (POST 1) at 12-1 from trainer Bruce Brown with Edgard Zayas offers the ultimate inside post advantage if this horse can break alertly and get the fence early. At 12-1, the price is attractive for a horse positioned perfectly on the rail.

Barnstorming (POST 5) at 10-1 is the second Bruce Brown entry with Sahin Civaci. Brown running two horses in the same race complicates the individual analysis but does expand the win potential for bettors using both.

Life And Light (POST 3) at 10-1 from the Edmund Pringle barn with Ruben Silvera is a deep longshot in a full field, but the middle draw allows for a stalking trip.

Jackson Heights (POST 4) at 15-1 from Ilkay Kantarmaci — making it four Kantarmaci horses in this race — with Jamie Rodriguez rounds out a curious barn entry situation. The Kantarmaci stable's intentions across four runners are opaque, and while Jackson Heights (POST 4) is unlikely to be the stable's intended winner at 15-1, stranger outcomes have occurred.

Selections

Win: Frizzante (POST 8) Place: Ocean Atlantique (POST 2) Show: Classic Creation (POST 6)

RACE 3 — Post (2:06) — 1320f | t | C | Clm 55000n2l | Purse $57,000

Ten fillies and mares go to the gate in this six-furlong turf sprint for non-winners of two lifetime at the $55,000 claiming level. The straight turf chute at Aqueduct equalizes the post position draw considerably compared to a turf route, but horses with turf sprint experience and early speed out of the gate are at a premium. Sarir (POST 10) is the 1-1 morning line favorite from a barn with significant resources.

Race 3

Pace Analysis

A ten-horse field in a straight six-furlong turf sprint produces a wide-open pace scenario. With early speed from multiple angles in a field this deep, the fractions will be honest. The turf sprint favors horses that can clear to a comfortable lead or sit within a length of the early leaders while conserving energy for the final 200 meters. The larger field amplifies the importance of a clean break — horses that stumble or get shuffled back early in this sprint lose irreplaceable ground.

Key Contenders

Sarir (POST 10) at 1-1 morning line is the dominant choice from the Linda Rice stable. Linda Rice's record in New York turf events for fillies and mares at the claiming level is extraordinary, and the 1-1 price reflects genuine market confidence. Jose Lezcano takes the mount, and Lezcano has a strong partnership with the Rice barn. However, the outside post in a straight turf sprint is worth monitoring — Sarir (POST 10) will need to break alertly and angle toward the best ground or risk racing wide throughout.

Twirling Lulu (POST 1) at 3-1 from the Bruce Levine barn with Kendrick Carmouche is a fascinating alternative at the price. Carmouche is one of the most accomplished jockeys at the Big A, and Levine consistently prepares horses well for turf sprints at this level. The inside post in the straight chute gives Twirling Lulu (POST 1) access to the rail and potentially the best ground on the course.

Secondary Choices

Scorch (POST 4) at 4-1 from the Fernando Abreu stable with Ruben Silvera is a legitimate threat. Abreu has been developing horses effectively in New York, and the 4-1 morning line suggests genuine competitive ability. Silvera gets a horse in the middle of the draw in a straight sprint, which is manageable.

Leslie's Star (POST 8) at 4-1 is another Rice barn runner with Jose Lezcano — though with Lezcano also listed on Sarir (POST 10), a jockey change is anticipated here. The second Rice runner at 4-1 introduces uncertainty about which of the two is the intended winner, but Rice's barn record allows for both to be respected.

Artistic Success (POST 5) at 2-1 from Joe Sharp with Manuel Franco is likely to be on the morning line board as a co-favorite or near-favorite by post time. Sharp and Franco have a productive working relationship, and the middle draw is ideal in a straight turf sprint.

Longshots

Hola Gata (POST 7) at 5-1 from the Dimitrios Synnefias barn with Jamie Rodriguez is a live longshot. The price is generous enough to warrant inclusion in exotics.

Baseball Lady (POST 9) at 5-1 is another Rice trainee with Jamie Rodriguez, making it three Rice horses in this event. Rice's triple-entry strategy complicates individual analysis but means at least one of her horses likely delivers on the form.

Fifi La Fume (POST 3) at 15-1 from Rudy Rodriguez with Dalila Rivera is a deep longshot in a full field. Rodriguez's barn occasionally springs surprises in turf sprints, and at 15-1, the price is sufficient to warrant a small saver.

Maxisure (POST 6) at 20-1 from the Antonio Arriaga barn with Christopher Elliott is unlikely to factor but rounds out the field in terms of longshot consideration.

Widdershins (POST 2) at 30-1 from Amira Chichakly with Edgard Zayas is a significant outlier at this price in a ten-horse field. Without form indicating otherwise, this horse is likely out of the mix.

Selections

Win: Sarir (POST 10) Place: Twirling Lulu (POST 1) Show: Artistic Success (POST 5)

RACE 4 — Post (2:36) — 1540f | D | C | Clm 20000b | Purse $37,000

Eight horses enter for this 9.5-furlong claiming route at the $20,000 level with a b-condition (previous earnings restriction). The lowest purse of the card at $37,000 reflects the modest class level, but the William Mott entry — Schlomo (POST 2) at 2-1 — injects immediate legitimacy into an otherwise competitive field. Routes at the $20,000 claiming level at Aqueduct can be tricky to handicap because the form often involves horses that have bounced around the claiming ranks and whose current class-level placement may reflect fitness as much as ability.

Race 4

Pace Analysis

At 1540 feet — just short of a mile and three-sixteenths — the pace scenario here is critical. Routes at this distance on the Aqueduct main track require horses to sustain their efforts for a long way, and the claiming conditions mean that the pace will likely be moderate in the early stages as the jockeys negotiate position. Schlomo (POST 2) from the Mott barn, with Sahin Civaci riding, will likely establish an early position, and Thrill Of It (POST 4) at 2-1 from John Terranova with Jamie Rodriguez creates a genuine duel for authority early.

Key Contenders

Schlomo (POST 2) at 2-1 from the Hall of Fame trainer William Mott represents the class of the field from a training standpoint. Mott and the Belmont at the Big A setup are natural fits — Mott has been sending out Belmont Stakes hopefuls over the weekend, including Emerging Market and Growth Equity in Saturday workouts, and his barn is clearly in peak operational form heading into the Belmont Stakes meet. Sahin Civaci, Mott's trusted rider during this period, takes the mount.

Thrill Of It (POST 4) at 2-1 from John Terranova with Jamie Rodriguez is the co-favorite and deserves equal respect. Terranova has been a steady presence on the NYRA circuit for decades, and horses dropping or placed in the right spot at this level consistently perform. Rodriguez is a capable pilot with an improving strike rate.

Secondary Choices

Nantz (POST 7) at 5-1 from the Carlos Martin barn with Jose Lezcano is a strong secondary consideration. Martin is one of the more underrated trainers in New York, and his horses frequently outrun their morning line prices. Lezcano is an experienced hand at route distances on the main track.

Princip (POST 6) at 4-1 from Ilkay Kantarmaci with Edgard Zayas is another Kantarmaci runner to consider. At 4-1, the price suggests genuine competitive ability, and Zayas is a capable rider who can handle the tactical demands of a route race.

Longshots

Rock The Weekend (POST 1) at 12-1 from Lolita Shivmangal with Omar Hernandez Moreno is a significant longshot at the rail, but the post could be advantageous in a route race if this horse breaks well. The 12-1 price makes it a saver at best.

Dreams Of Myfather (POST 3) at 20-1 from Melanie Giddings with Christopher Elliott is unlikely to factor based on the morning line.

Enduring Spirit (POST 5) at 15-1 from Carlos Figueroa with Dylan Davis is another deep longshot in this field. Davis could coax a better-than-expected effort, but the 15-1 price reflects the handicap community's assessment.

Solo Empire (POST 8) at 12-1 from Rudy Rodriguez with Dalila Rivera rounds out the field. Rodriguez has live claimers occasionally, but the outside post in a route race and the 12-1 price suggest this is not a prime Rodriguez spot.

Selections

Win: Schlomo (POST 2) Place: Thrill Of It (POST 4) Show: Nantz (POST 7)

RACE 5 — Post (3:07) — 2420f | T | S | Md Sp Wt | Purse $85,000

The feature of the afternoon from a class standpoint — a maiden special weight event on the inner turf at approximately 15 furlongs for fillies and mares. This is an extended distance that tests pure stamina and a horse's willingness to gallop. The $85,000 purse is the richest on the card, and the trainer list reads like a who's-who of the sport: Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown, William Mott, Miguel Clement, and Mark Hennig all have runners in this nine-horse field. Chad Brown places three horses in this event, reflecting his unmatched confidence in his own turf stable.

Race 5

Pace Analysis

At 2420 feet on the inner turf — an extreme distance — the pace will almost certainly be slow in the early stages as jockeys conserve their horses and wait for the authentic question to be asked at the half-mile pole. This is a stamina test, and horses that become rank early or get caught up in a contested pace are at a severe disadvantage. Horses with turf experience, particularly those with demonstrated ability to settle and make a single powerful move late, are at a premium. Chad Brown's runners as a group excel at exactly this kind of patient, stamina-centric turf scenario.

Key Contenders

Whitethorn (POST 2) at 2-1 from Todd Pletcher with Manuel Franco is the clear first-choice for many handicappers. Pletcher's maiden special weight turfers with Franco in the saddle have been a reliable combination over many years on the New York circuit. Whitethorn (POST 2) benefits from a workable inside post at this distance on the turf.

Mary Lois (POST 8) at 2-1 from Chad Brown with Jose Lezcano is the co-favorite and arguably the more interesting play from a trainer angle perspective. Brown's mastery of turf routes — particularly at extreme distances — is well-documented, and three horses in the same race from the Brown barn signals enormous confidence. Mary Lois (POST 8) is the highest-profiled of the Brown trio based on the morning line. Lezcano has been riding effectively for Brown in recent weeks.

Secondary Choices

Stand The Rain (POST 5) at 4-1 from Miguel Clement with Jamie Rodriguez is a horse whose name is particularly evocative given the wet-weather week at Aqueduct. Clement is a respected turf trainer, and Stand The Rain (POST 5) from post 5 with Rodriguez aboard is well-positioned to stalk the pace in the middle of the field.

Trading Strategy (POST 4) at 8-1 is one of the Brown barn's three entries with Dylan Davis. At 8-1, Trading Strategy (POST 4) offers value in the win pool if Brown's morning line prices obscure the true intentions of his barn.

Pinch Of Bourbon (POST 1) at 6-1 from Mark Hennig with Kendrick Carmouche is an interesting price. Hennig is an accomplished trainer, and Carmouche aboard a Hennig turf maiden at the Big A is a legitimate combination. The inside post at a stamina distance is a significant asset.

Longshots

Isadora Duncan (POST 6) at 10-1 from the Mott barn with Sahin Civaci should not be overlooked given Mott's training pedigree for exactly this type of extreme turf route. Mott's barn is in sharp form entering the Belmont Stakes meet.

Collective Bargain (POST 9) at 10-1 is the third Chad Brown runner, listed with a TBA rider, which itself suggests something about the barn's prioritization. At 10-1, the Brown connection still adds intrinsic value.

Lyn's Legacy (POST 7) at 15-1 from Clement with Christopher Elliott is the second Clement runner and a probable pace-setter or deep closer depending on the horse's running style.

Baffle (POST 3) at 12-1 from Pletcher with John Velazquez is the second Pletcher runner and a horse that benefits from veteran guidance on a complex turf route. Velazquez on a Pletcher maiden at the Big A is never truly a throwout.

Selections

Win: Whitethorn (POST 2) Place: Mary Lois (POST 8) Show: Stand The Rain (POST 5)

RACE 6 — Post (3:38) — 1320f | t | M | Md 50000 | Purse $48,000

Nine fillies and mares go postward in a maiden claiming event at $50,000 on the inner turf at six furlongs. This is a maiden claiming event, which typically attracts horses that have been unable to win maiden special weight or allowance races. Five Dozen Roses (POST 1) and My Lil Army Girl (POST 3) are co-favorites at 2-1 from the Linda Rice and Carlos Martin barns, respectively. The inside post advantage in a straight turf sprint is worth emphasizing here.

Race 6

Pace Analysis

In a nine-horse maiden claiming turf sprint, the pace figures to be moderate. Maiden claimers rarely produce blazing fractions, and the tendency in this company is for the field to bunch together before the real battle begins inside the final furlong. Horses that can establish a comfortable stalking position without getting shuffled back early will have the best of it. The straight chute at Aqueduct minimizes traffic issues but does not eliminate them entirely in a field of nine.

Key Contenders

Five Dozen Roses (POST 1) at 2-1 from Linda Rice with Dylan Davis is the horse to beat on trainer and post position alone. Rice has an elite record with turf fillies at this claiming level, and the inside post in the straight sprint chute gives Five Dozen Roses (POST 1) access to the rail path and a potential stalking trip with clean air.

My Lil Army Girl (POST 3) at 2-1 from the Carlos Martin barn with Jose Lezcano is the co-favorite. Martin handles turf routes well, and Lezcano is a polished rider in the turf sprint format. The third post in a straight sprint is as clean a draw as any runner in this field can expect.

Secondary Choices

Just One More (POST 5) at 4-1 from the Amelia Green barn with Jamie Rodriguez is a legitimate contender. Green has sent out competitive turf fillies at this level, and Rodriguez is comfortable in these situations.

Indie Get Your Gun (POST 2) at 6-1 from the Mott barn with Sahin Civaci is a price worth considering given Mott's current form. The Mott barn is in peak shape entering the Belmont Stakes meet, and a 6-1 price on a Mott maiden in a relatively open field could represent value.

Longshots

Midnight Blue (POST 7) at 10-1 from John Pregman with J.J. Castellano is notable purely for the Castellano presence. When Castellano accepts a mount in maiden claiming company, the horse typically has some hidden ability worth acknowledging.

Dreamy Girl (POST 6) at 15-1 from Jena Antonucci with Edgard Zayas is a moderate longshot. Antonucci has training credentials, and Zayas is too good a rider to waste on a horse with zero chance.

Rocket Robin (POST 8) at 15-1 from Michelle Nevin with Ruben Silvera rounds out the field's middle pricing.

Vivienna (POST 9) at 20-1 from the Donk barn with Christopher Elliott is likely outclassed.

Gresham's Law (POST 4) at 30-1 from David Donk with Dalila Rivera is a significant outlier that is best left off the ticket.

Selections

Win: Five Dozen Roses (POST 1) Place: My Lil Army Girl (POST 3) Show: Just One More (POST 5)

RACE 7 — Post (4:09) — 1760f | D | CO | OClm 32000 | Purse $60,000

Eight fillies and mares compete in this optional claiming route at the $32,000 level at a mile and a tenth on the main track. The optional claiming condition opens the race to horses competing for purse money without the risk of being claimed, which often produces a field of mixed intentions. Sweet Laura (POST 1) is the morning line favorite at 2-1 from the Jamie Ness barn with Jamie Rodriguez, and the matchup between that horse and the Linda Rice pair Mursal (POST 5) and Snide (POST 8) provides the analytical backbone of this race.

Race 7

Pace Analysis

At 1760 feet — a mile and a tenth — the pace in this optional claimer figures to be honest. Sweet Laura (POST 1) from the inside post with Rodriguez aboard may try to control the race early, and if the pace develops cleanly, this becomes a horse that can exploit the rail advantage through the final turn. Higher Force (POST 6) from Rudy Rodriguez at 6-1 adds a pace dimension from the outside, and Snide (POST 8) from the Rice barn with Manuel Franco suggests a stalking strategy from an experienced rider.

Key Contenders

Sweet Laura (POST 1) at 2-1 from the Jamie Ness barn with Jamie Rodriguez is the clear public choice. Ness has been a productive trainer in the optional claiming ranks for fillies and mares at this level, and Rodriguez on a router from the inside post at Aqueduct is a potent combination. If Sweet Laura (POST 1) can establish the lead through moderate fractions, the inside rail could prove a decisive advantage.

Snide (POST 8) at 3-1 from Linda Rice with Manuel Franco is the horse that handicappers should be most focused on as a betting alternative. Rice's fillies and mares in optional claiming routes on the dirt have been producing strong results during this meet. Franco's placement on this horse at 3-1 suggests the Rice barn believes Snide (POST 8) has a genuine shot at reversing form, and Franco's tactical intelligence in a one-turn mile-plus scenario is a significant asset.

Secondary Choices

Mursal (POST 5) at 4-1 is the second Rice runner with Dylan Davis. At 4-1, Mursal (POST 5) offers each-way value, and the middle draw allows for a comfortable stalking position. With two Rice horses in the race, the barn's confidence in this spot is evident.

Sailaway (POST 7) at 5-1 from Gustavo Rodriguez with Ruben Silvera is a legitimate secondary contender. The 5-1 morning line provides value, and outside posts in mile-plus optional claimers are not necessarily disadvantageous.

Higher Force (POST 6) at 6-1 from Rudy Rodriguez with Dalila Rivera is a price horse to include in exotics given the Rodriguez barn's history of producing live options at this level.

Longshots

Pistol Liz Ablazen (POST 2) at 12-1 from Gustavo Rodriguez with Carmouche is the second Rodriguez stable runner. At 12-1, a Carmouche mount is always worth a second look — Carmouche rarely accepts throwaway rides.

Princess Becca (POST 4) at 12-1 from the Kantarmaci barn with Silvestre Gonzalez is a price that is unlikely to offer return, but the Kantarmaci name has appeared consistently across this card.

That's Funny (POST 3) at 20-1 from Kantarmaci with Edgard Zayas rounds out the Kantarmaci presence in yet another race. At 20-1, this is a throwout for all but the most aggressive longshot players.

Selections

Win: Sweet Laura (POST 1) Place: Snide (POST 8) Show: Mursal (POST 5)

RACE 8 — Post (4:40) — 1760f | D | CO | OClm 16000 | Purse $40,000

Eight geldings go a mile and a tenth in this optional claimer at the $16,000 level. This is the lowest-class male race on the card, and the morning line has Lucky Dude (POST 3) as the 2-1 favorite from the John Kirby barn with Kendrick Carmouche aboard. The $40,000 purse and claiming conditions produce a field where recent form, fitness, and the jockey assignment are the most reliable predictors.

Race 8

Pace Analysis

At 1760 feet in a low-level optional claimer, the pace often develops deliberately, with the field sorting out positions early and the real race beginning at the far turn. Lucky Dude (POST 3) from the rail-adjacent post 3 and Tizmarkus (POST 6) at 3-1 from the James Ferraro barn with Lezcano figure to be the dominant pace-setters or pressers in this event. The fractions in a race at this level are rarely honest enough to produce a clear pace advantage for closers.

Key Contenders

Lucky Dude (POST 3) at 2-1 from the John Kirby barn with Kendrick Carmouche is the horse to beat. Carmouche's acceptance of the mount at 2-1 in a gelding-only optional claimer at this level validates the horse's competitiveness. Kirby has a straightforward approach with his horses, and Lucky Dude (POST 3) from the near-inside post figures to get a clean trip from the start.

Tizmarkus (POST 6) at 3-1 from James Ferraro with Jose Lezcano is the clear second choice. Lezcano is an experienced hand at this class level, and the Ferraro barn places horses effectively in optional claiming routes. The 3-1 morning line suggests genuine competitive ability, and Tizmarkus (POST 6) from the middle of the draw has the tactical flexibility to work from any position.

Secondary Choices

Sharp Spark (POST 1) at 4-1 from the Kantarmaci barn with Manuel Franco is a legitimate contender. Franco taking a Kantarmaci mount at 4-1 gives this horse substantially more credibility than its stable mates at longer prices elsewhere on the card. The inside post in a route race is an asset when the rider is capable of getting the horse to the front or the rail early.

Register (POST 5) at 5-1 is the second Kantarmaci runner with Silvestre Gonzalez. At 5-1, Register (POST 5) adds another Kantarmaci option, and the middle draw is manageable.

Passioned (POST 2) at 6-1 from M. Anthony Ferraro with Jamie Rodriguez is a price worth considering in exotics. The second Ferraro entry at 6-1 — note that James Ferraro and M. Anthony Ferraro appear to be different trainers — adds another competitive dimension.

Longshots

Screaming Uncle (POST 7) at 8-1 from Gregory Charlerie with Ruben Silvera is the most interesting longshot in this field. Charlerie horses occasionally outrun their prices, and Silvera's experience in route races adds a measure of professional credibility.

Centavo (POST 4) at 15-1 from Naipaul Chatterpaul with Christopher Elliott is a significant longshot that is best left off the primary ticket.

Glint (POST 8) at 20-1 from Amira Chichakly with Edgard Zayas rounds out the field. Zayas rarely accepts rides without some basis for optimism, but 20-1 is difficult to justify as a primary investment.

Selections

Win: Lucky Dude (POST 3) Place: Tizmarkus (POST 6) Show: Sharp Spark (POST 1)

RACE 9 — Post (5:11) — 1320f | t | C | Clm 55000n2l | Purse $57,000

The finale is a loaded eleven-horse field for non-winners of two lifetime on the inner turf at six furlongs — the same straight sprint configuration as Race 3. The $57,000 purse attracts quality, and the trainer roster includes Miguel Clement, Bruce Levine, Fernando Abreu, Mark Casse, Michael Maker, and Richard Dutrow. Rhyton (POST 1) from the Clement barn with Manuel Franco is the 2-1 morning line favorite, and the field is competitive from top to bottom.

Race 9

Pace Analysis

Eleven horses in a straight turf sprint creates the most complex pace scenario of the day. With multiple speed horses likely eager to establish position from the break, the early fractions should be honest and potentially fast. The inside posts have a slight advantage in terms of positioning, but in a field this large running straight, traffic is manageable across the entire starting gate. Horses that break cleanly and establish rhythm immediately are at a significant premium.

Key Contenders

Rhyton (POST 1) at 2-1 from Miguel Clement with Manuel Franco is the morning line top choice. The combination of Clement's turf training expertise and Franco's elite-level tactical riding at the rail post in a straight sprint is compelling. Clement's record in turf sprints at this claiming level in New York is among the best in the colony, and Rhyton (POST 1) from the inside with Franco could dictate terms throughout.

Into Diamonds (POST 4) at 4-1 from the Mark Casse barn with Edgard Zayas is one of the most interesting bets on the entire card. Casse's record at Belmont at the Big A during spring meets has been strong, and Zayas is a top-level jockey capable of positioning a horse perfectly in a crowded turf sprint field. Into Diamonds (POST 4) from the middle of the draw is well-positioned to get a clean run throughout.

Secondary Choices

Hard Circle (POST 8) at 4-1 from the Michael Maker barn with Dylan Davis is a legitimate contender at an identical morning line price to Into Diamonds (POST 4). Maker sends competitive horses to NYRA on a consistent basis, and Davis aboard a Maker turf sprinter at 4-1 in a non-winners condition is worthy of respect.

Royal Browne (POST 3) at 8-1 from Fernando Abreu with Ruben Silvera is the value play in this race for many handicappers. Abreu has been competitive in the $55,000 non-winners turf sprint range, and the 8-1 morning line represents a significant overlay if this horse has been working well.

Slay Sadie Slay (POST 7) at 10-1 from the Richard Dutrow barn with Jose Lezcano is intriguing. Dutrow, despite the complications of recent years, still saddles live horses at the Big A, and Lezcano accepting this mount at 10-1 in a competitive non-winners condition turf sprint demands attention. Lezcano's turf sprint record at this class level is excellent.

Longshots

Night (POST 10) at 8-1 from Lisa Lewis with J.J. Castellano is the second horse on the card where Castellano's presence on a price horse raises the alert level significantly. In a competitive eleven-horse field, Night (POST 10) at 8-1 with Castellano on the outside could stalk the pace and launch late.

Ready Set Twirl (POST 6) at 10-1 from Rudy Rodriguez with Dalila Rivera is a Rodriguez barn runner that has been competitive in similar conditions earlier in the meet.

Sports Hero (POST 5) at 12-1 from James Ryerson with Christopher Elliott is a longshot with a capable rider.

Guilty (POST 2) at 15-1 from Bruce Levine with Kendrick Carmouche — and here again the Carmouche factor elevates what would otherwise be a throwout. Levine and Carmouche working together in the finale of the day on a 15-1 morning line horse is an angle that cannot be completely dismissed.

Hong Kong Phooey (POST 11) at 15-1 from Rudy Rodriguez with Ruben Silvera — the second Rodriguez runner in this race — from the far outside in a straight sprint is facing a coverage problem at a distance where every step of ground matters.

The Markinater (POST 9) at 30-1 from Dimitrios Synnefias with Jamie Rodriguez rounds out the field at a price that eliminates it from serious wagering consideration.

Selections

Win: Rhyton (POST 1) Place: Into Diamonds (POST 4) Show: Hard Circle (POST 8)

Jockey Notes and Insights

Manuel Franco is the pivotal rider on today's card, drawing eight mounts across the nine races. Franco has been one of the leading jockeys at the Belmont at the Big A meet and brings championship-caliber talent to every post. His assignments today include The Toy Cannon (POST 2, Race 1), Ocean Atlantique (POST 2, Race 2) — and potentially Castle Chaos (POST 9, Race 2), which requires clarification given the double-booking — Artistic Success (POST 5, Race 3), Whitethorn (POST 2, Race 5), Snide (POST 8, Race 7), Sharp Spark (POST 1, Race 8), and Rhyton (POST 1, Race 9). Franco's mounts today span every condition and distance, and several of his horses represent the consensus top choice in their respective races.

Kendrick Carmouche is a cornerstone of the Aqueduct jockey colony and is well-positioned on several of today's most interesting horses. Twirling Lulu (POST 1, Race 3), Pinch Of Bourbon (POST 1, Race 5), Pistol Liz Ablazen (POST 2, Race 7), Lucky Dude (POST 3, Race 8), and Guilty (POST 2, Race 9) represent his book today. The Carmouche connection on Guilty (POST 2) in the finale at 15-1 is the most intriguing longshot angle on the card.

J.J. Castellano's presence on Constant Chaos (POST 6, Race 1), Midnight Blue (POST 7, Race 6), and Night (POST 10, Race 9) is worth monitoring closely. Castellano typically accepts mounts with competitive potential, and all three of his rides today are at prices that would suggest trainer intent beyond a simple exercise.

Jose Lezcano has a productive relationship with the Linda Rice barn and draws multiple Rice horses today, including Sarir (POST 10, Race 3) and Leslie's Star (POST 8, Race 3) — a double booking requiring pre-race clarification — along with Tizmarkus (POST 6, Race 8) and other key rides. Lezcano's versatility across distance and surface makes him one of the most reliable riders on a multi-condition card.

Jamie Rodriguez is the highest-volume rider of the day by sheer number of mounts, drawing assignments in virtually every race. Rodriguez's strength is tactical awareness in traffic, and his ability to find room in a crowded field on the inner turf is particularly relevant to Races 3 and 9.

Dylan Davis continues to build his reputation as a jockey capable of handling both dirt and turf assignments. His mounts today include The Toy Cannon (POST 2, Race 1) alongside Franco — another potential jockey conflict to monitor — Thrill Of It (POST 4, Race 4), Trading Strategy (POST 4, Race 5), Five Dozen Roses (POST 1, Race 6), Mursal (POST 5, Race 7), and Hard Circle (POST 8, Race 9). Davis brings genuine skill to each of these assignments.

Edgard Zayas rounds out the top tier of today's colony. His mounts on American Grant (POST 1, Race 2), Widdershins (POST 2, Race 3), Princip (POST 6, Race 4), That's Funny (POST 3, Race 7), Into Diamonds (POST 4, Race 9), and Glint (POST 8, Race 8) span the full range of morning line prices. The Into Diamonds (POST 4) assignment in the finale is the standout from a win-probability standpoint.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Linda Rice is the dominant trainer presence on today's card, saddling entries in six of the nine races with multiple horses in several events. Her races today include horses in Race 1 (ICAN, POST 3), Race 2 (FRIZZANTE, POST 8), Race 3 (LESLIE'S STAR, POST 8; BASEBALL LADY, POST 9; SARIR, POST 10), Race 4 (no entry), Race 7 (MURSAL, POST 5; SNIDE, POST 8), and Race 9 (no entry). Rice's record at Aqueduct and Belmont with turf claimers — particularly for fillies and mares — is among the best in the business, and any Rice horse at a reasonable price deserves inclusion on exotic tickets.

William Mott has horses today in Race 4 (SCHLOMO, POST 2), Race 5 (ISADORA DUNCAN, POST 6), and Race 6 (INDIE GET YOUR GUN, POST 2). Mott's barn is clearly in peak form entering the Belmont Stakes meet, as evidenced by the weekend Belmont Stakes prep workouts for multiple contenders. Any Mott runner at a price today warrants enhanced respect given the barn's current operational sharpness.

Chad Brown enters three horses in Race 5 — Trading Strategy (POST 4), Mary Lois (POST 8), and Collective Bargain (POST 9). Brown's three-pronged attack on the maiden special weight turf route screams confidence, and his unparalleled record with maiden turf runners at extreme distances is the single most important trainer note of the day. Bettors should consider using all three Brown horses in exotic wagers to ensure coverage.

Todd Pletcher saddles Whitethorn (POST 2) and Baffle (POST 3) in Race 5. The Pletcher-Franco combination on Whitethorn (POST 2) is one of the most proven pairings in New York racing, and the fact that Pletcher enters two horses in the same race reflects genuine confidence in the condition.

Miguel Clement has Stand The Rain (POST 5) and Lyn's Legacy (POST 7) in Race 5, and Rhyton (POST 1) in the finale. Clement's turf program is consistently productive, and three runners across two races on this card reflects the breadth of his current stable.

Ilkay Kantarmaci is unusually active today, saddling horses in Races 2 (three horses: JACKSON HEIGHTS POST 4, DETERMINEDLY POST 7, and CASTLE CHAOS POST 9), Race 4 (PRINCIP, POST 6), Race 7 (THAT'S FUNNY, POST 3; PRINCESS BECCA, POST 4), and Race 8 (SHARP SPARK, POST 1; REGISTER, POST 5). The volume of Kantarmaci entries across multiple races is worth flagging — this barn runs frequently, and deciphering the intended winner from the stable's array of runners in a single race requires careful analysis of jockey assignments and morning line prices.

Rudy Rodriguez enters multiple horses across the card including Momentum Files (POST 5, Race 1), Fifi La Fume (POST 3, Race 3), Solo Empire (POST 8, Race 4), Higher Force (POST 6, Race 7), Ready Set Twirl (POST 6, Race 9), and Hong Kong Phooey (POST 11, Race 9). The Rodriguez barn is a high-volume operation on this circuit.

Brad Cox's presence with The Toy Cannon (POST 2) in Race 1 is the most prominent signal of a top-level trainer with a defined agenda on this card. Cox's Big A horses in claiming condition have been well-prepared, and the Manuel Franco assignment validates the horse's competitive standing.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The best single bet on today's card is Rhyton (POST 1) in the Race 9 finale. The Miguel Clement and Manuel Franco combination in a turf sprint from the inside post in a non-winners condition race is as strong a trainer-jockey-post angle as exists on any race card at this meet. At 2-1 morning line, the price is fair and the horse should be backed to win.

The best value play on the card is Into Diamonds (POST 4) in Race 9 at 4-1. The Mark Casse barn producing a horse at this level with Edgard Zayas aboard in a competitive turf sprint represents genuine overlay potential if the morning line holds. Consider a win wager on Into Diamonds (POST 4) alongside Rhyton (POST 1) in the exacta, which should return a solid price given the two horses' combined odds.

In Race 5, the Chad Brown three-horse attack on the maiden special weight turf route demands a structured approach. Use Mary Lois (POST 8) and Whitethorn (POST 2) as the primary win candidates, with Trading Strategy (POST 4) as the saver. In the exacta, box Mary Lois (POST 8), Whitethorn (POST 2), and Stand The Rain (POST 5) for the key legs. The Brown-Pletcher matchup in a maiden special weight at $85,000 represents one of the highlights of this card from a quality standpoint.

For the Pick 4 from Race 6 through Race 9, the recommended construction is: Race 6 — Five Dozen Roses (POST 1) with My Lil Army Girl (POST 3) as backup; Race 7 — Sweet Laura (POST 1) and Snide (POST 8); Race 8 — Lucky Dude (POST 3) and Tizmarkus (POST 6); Race 9 — Rhyton (POST 1), Into Diamonds (POST 4), and Night (POST 10) as the Castellano price play. A 2x2x2x3 Pick 4 structure at $1 base costs $24 and provides excellent coverage of the most likely outcomes in the final four races.

For the Race 2 through Race 6 Pick 5, the construction is: Race 2 — Frizzante (POST 8) and Ocean Atlantique (POST 2); Race 3 — Sarir (POST 10) and Twirling Lulu (POST 1); Race 4 — Schlomo (POST 2) and Thrill Of It (POST 4); Race 5 — Whitethorn (POST 2), Mary Lois (POST 8), and Trading Strategy (POST 4); Race 6 — Five Dozen Roses (POST 1) and My Lil Army Girl (POST 3). A 2x2x2x3x2 structure at $.50 base costs $48 and captures the most realistic win scenarios through the heart of the card.

The standout Castellano angle play for a small win wager is Night (POST 10) in Race 9 at 8-1. If Castellano is on a horse at that price in the finale, there is almost always a reason, and the outside post in a straight turf sprint from a capable rider at that price makes for an intriguing win-pool investment.

The Linda Rice barn dominates this card quantitatively, and using multiple Rice horses in the same exotic races — particularly in Race 3 with Sarir (POST 10), Leslie's Star (POST 8), and Baseball Lady (POST 9) — provides natural insurance against which of her runners fires on the day while maintaining value in the vertical sequences.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


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