Tip Sheet – Analysis of Expert Picks and Statistical Consensus for Churchill Downs September 18, 2025.

Race 1 – Claiming

FanDuel:

  • 1st Pick: #5 Fully Volatile (8/1) – Jockey: Torres Jaime A, Trainer: Heitzmann Eric L
  • 2nd Pick: #2 Risk It (2/1) – Jockey: Gaffalione Tyler, Trainer: Jacobson David
  • 2nd Pick: #7 Vasa (5/2) – Jockey: Ortiz Jr. Irad, Trainer: Sweezey J. K

At The Races:

  • Top Tip: #6 Timing Difference
  • Watch out for: #7 Vasa

Racing Dudes:

  • Pick: #2 Risk It (2/1) – Trainer: D Jacobson, Jockey: T Gaffalione

Twinspires:

  • Win: #1 Kenz (7/5)
  • Selections: #2 Risk It, #7 Vasa, #1 Countthebrave, #6 Timing Difference

Racenet:

  • Selections: #2 Risk It, #6 Timing Difference, #7 Vasa, #1 Countthebrave

TipMeerkat:

  • #2 Risk It (2/1), #4 Perfect Magic (8/1), #5 Fully Volatile (8/1)

Betting News:

  • 1st: #1 Countthebrave, 2nd: #7 Vasa, 3rd: #4 Perfect Magic, 4th: #2 Risk It

Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight (5:29 PM ET)

FanDuel:

  • 1st Pick: #5 Reveller’s Cheer (2/1) – Jockey: Geroux Florent, Trainer: Brown Chad C
  • 2nd Pick: #2 Copp (5/2) – Jockey: Ortiz Jr. Irad, Trainer: Mccarthy Michael W
  • 2nd Pick: #4 Altiplano (9/2) – Jockey: Ortiz Jose L, Trainer: Devaux Cherie

At The Races:

  • Top Tip: #2 Copp
  • Watch out for: #1 Thunder Roll

Racing Dudes:

  • Pick: #2 Copp (5/2) – Trainer: M W McCarthy, Jockey: I Ortiz Jr.

Racenet:

  • Selections: #2 Copp, #4 Altiplano, #5 Reveller’s Cheer, #1 Thunder Roll

TipMeerkat:

  • #2 Copp (5/2), #1 Thunder Roll (5/1), #4 Altiplano (9/2)

Betting News:

  • 1st: #2 Copp, 2nd: #8 Pirandello, 3rd: #5 Reveller’s Cheer, 4th: #1 Thunder Roll

Race 3 – Claiming (6:00 PM ET)

FanDuel:

  • 1st Pick: #7 Heart Headed (5/1) – Jockey: Torres Jaime A, Trainer: Jacobson David
  • 2nd Pick: #5 Bushido (6/1) – Jockey: Torres Cristian A, Trainer: Jacobson David
  • 2nd Pick: #8 Gunner Bay (5/2) – Jockey: Ortiz Jose L, Trainer: Amoss Thomas M

At The Races:

  • Top Tip: #4 Classic Legacy
  • Watch out for: #2 Can’t Hush This

Racing Dudes:

  • Pick: #6 Condemn (10/1) – Trainer: T Drury Jr., Jockey: B J Hernandez Jr.

Racenet:

  • Selections: #2 Can’t Hush This, #8 Gunner Bay, #3 Zambezi, #4 Classic Legacy

TipMeerkat:

  • #8 Gunner Bay (5/2), #5 Bushido (6/1), #7 Heart Headed (5/1)

Race 4 – Maiden Special Weight (6:30 PM ET)

FanDuel:

  • 1st Pick: #7 Chatterfield (10/1) – Jockey: Doyle Sophie, Trainer: Mcguire Kara L
  • 1st Pick: #12 Project Ace (12/1) – Jockey: Lanerie Corey J, Trainer: Romans Dale L
  • 2nd Pick: #2 Orville’s Map (12/1) – Jockey: Leparoux Julien R, Trainer: Stewart Dallas

At The Races:

  • Top Tip: #11 Maxxus
  • Watch out for: #3 Mo Beach Time

Racing Dudes:

  • Pick: #4 Race Ready (6/1) – Trainer: N W Casse, Jockey: I Ortiz Jr.

Racenet:

  • Selections: #10 Thousand Spirits, #4 Race Ready, #1 Lex Go Honey, #8 Kingofsomewherehot

TipMeerkat:

  • #3 Mo Beach Time (9/2), #6 Super Kick (8/1), #7 Chatterfield (10/1)

Race 5 – Starter Allowance (6:59 PM ET)

FanDuel:

  • 1st Pick: #6 Uncashed (7/2) – Jockey: Rodriguez Walter A, Trainer: Rivelli Larry
  • 2nd Pick: #3 Burninhunkoflove (4/1) – Jockey: Ortiz Jose L, Trainer: Summers Chad
  • 2nd Pick: #7 Payne (5/2) – Jockey: Torres Cristian A, Trainer: Foster Eric N

At The Races:

  • Top Tip: #3 Burninhunkoflove
  • Watch out for: #7 Payne

Racing Dudes:

  • Pick: #6 Uncashed (7/2) – Trainer: L Rivelli, Jockey: W A Rodriguez

Racenet:

  • Selections: #6 Uncashed, #8 Air Combat, #3 Burninhunkoflove, #7 Payne

TipMeerkat:

  • #7 Payne (5/2), #6 Uncashed (7/2), #3 Burninhunkoflove (4/1)

Betting News:

  • 1st: #3 Burninhunkoflove, 2nd: #8 Air Combat, 3rd: #4 Global Sensation, 4th: #6 Uncashed

Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight (7:28 PM ET)

FanDuel:

  • 1st Pick: #5 No Time Left (15/1) – Jockey: Morales Edgar, Trainer: Foley Gregory D
  • 2nd Pick: #1 Kenz (7/5) – Jockey: Gaffalione Tyler, Trainer: Asmussen Steven M
  • 2nd Pick: #8 Bounce (6/1) – Jockey: Torres Jaime A, Trainer: Mott William I

At The Races:

  • Top Tip: #1 Kenz
  • Watch out for: #8 Bounce

Racing Dudes:

  • Pick: #1 Kenz (7/5) – Trainer: S M Asmussen, Jockey: T Gaffalione

Twinspires:

  • Win: #1 Kenz (7/5)
  • Exacta: #1 Kenz with #10 Supersonic Agenda
  • Selections: #1 Kenz, #10 Supersonic Agenda, #7 Raspberry

Racenet:

  • Selections: #1 Kenz, #9 Tiffany Cross, #3 Statutory, #7 Raspberry

TipMeerkat:

  • #3 Frango Electrico (10/1), #1 Poetica (3/1), #4 Divine Gal (4/1)

Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming (7:57 PM ET)

FanDuel:

  • 1st Pick: #1 Sir Greylind (5/2) – Jockey: Hernandez Jr. Brian J, Trainer: Mcpeek Kenneth G
  • 2nd Pick: #4 El Magnifico (7/2) – Jockey: Ortiz Jose L, Trainer: Dutrow Jr. Richard E
  • 2nd Pick: #6 Stowaway (10/1) – Jockey: Gaffalione Tyler, Trainer: Beckman D. Whitworth

At The Races:

  • Top Tip: #3 Bernin Hot
  • Watch out for: #1 Sir Greylind

Racing Dudes:

  • Pick: #3 Bernin Hot (3/1) – Trainer: R G Crichton, Jockey: L Saez

Racenet:

  • Selections: #4 El Magnifico, #6 Stowaway, #8 Duke Of Duval, #9 Money Supply

TipMeerkat:

  • #3 El Zain (15/1), #1 Lady Iva (4/1), #2 Union Rose (7/2)

Race 8 – Allowance (8:26 PM ET)

FanDuel:

  • 1st Pick: #3 Map To The Stars (8/1) – Jockey: Hernandez Jr. Brian J, Trainer: Mcgee Paul J
  • 1st Pick: #6 Amor Patriae (5/2) – Jockey: Gaffalione Tyler, Trainer: Divito James P
  • 2nd Pick: #4 Jack’s Promise (20/1) – Jockey: Cheminaud Vincent, Trainer: Romans Dale L

At The Races:

  • Top Tip: #6 Amor Patriae
  • Watch out for: #9 Mo Quality

Racing Dudes:

  • Pick: #6 Amor Patriae (5/2) – Trainer: J P DiVito, Jockey: T Gaffalione

Racenet:

  • Selections: #1 Mitty’s Griddy, #9 Mo Quality, #6 Amor Patriae, #7 Faust

TipMeerkat:

  • #1 Itsinmyblood (15/1), #6 Hero’s Medal (6/1), #7 Conquering Cat (6/1)

Consensus Picks

Based on the frequency of mentions across all expert sources:

Strong Consensus Picks:

Race 1: #2 Risk It (2/1) – Most mentioned across sources
Race 2: #2 Copp (5/2) – Universal favorite
Race 5: #3 Burninhunkoflove and #6 Uncashed – Both heavily backed
Race 6: #1 Kenz (7/5) – Strong favorite across multiple sources
Race 8: #6 Amor Patriae (5/2) – Consistent top pick

Moderate Consensus:

Race 3: #8 Gunner Bay (5/2) – Multiple mentions
Race 4: Mixed opinions, but #3 Mo Beach Time and #4 Race Ready appear frequently
Race 7: Split between #1 Sir Greylind, #3 Bernin Hot, and #4 El Magnifico

Key Insights:

  • Strongest Consensus: Race 2 (#2 Copp) and Race 6 (#1 Kenz) have near-universal support
  • Most Competitive: Race 4 shows the least consensus among experts
  • Value Plays: Several longshots like #5 No Time Left (15/1) in Race 6 are mentioned by FanDuel
  • Carryover Alert: Race 1 features a $5,044 Super High 5 carryover

The consensus strongly favors proven performers with good recent form, particularly horses trained by top connections like Steven Asmussen, Chad Brown, and David Jacobson.

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