Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Colonial Downs, July 2, 2026


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Algo Picks – Algo 1
 
Race 1
Win:4 – Over My Cents (2/1)
Place:5 – Finance Finance (5/2)
Show:3 – Turkish Breeze (3/1)
Other contenders:1 – Set Ablaze (3/1), 2 – Thousand Story's (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-1-3-5-2
🎯 Longshots: 4-5-3-1-2
 
Race 2
Win:4 – Bushido (8/5)
Place:1 – One Timer (2/1)
Show:6 – Biz Biz Buzz (4/1)
Other contenders:5 – Warheart (3/1), 3 – Paynted Warrior (15/1)
Rest of field:2 – Mi Dinero (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-4-1-6-3-2
🎯 Longshots: 4-1-6-3-5-2
 
Race 3
Win:2 – Hay Grace Brennan (8/1)
Place:4 – Emerald Spun (3/5)
Show:5 – Kimmy Got Glasses (6/1)
Other contenders:6 – Panama Canal (7/2), 3 – Smileaway (30/1)
Rest of field:7 – Chicoco (8/1), 1 – Lookinforjoybaloo (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-2-4-6-3-7
🎯 Longshots: 4-2-5-7-6-1-3
 
Race 4
Win:10 – Second City Saint (8/5)
Place:3 – Hurricane Lynn (9/2)
Show:9 – Nattie's Boss (8/1)
Other contenders:13 – Forty Seven Smoker (5/1), 6 – I Love Ines (8/1), 4 – Barbour County (10/1), 2 – Snowboarder (8/1)
Rest of field:8 – Hail No (15/1), 1 – Gelinotte (15/1), 7 – Monsoon Dancer (20/1), 14 – I Think I Can (12/1), 5 – Rhyme And Verse (30/1), 12 – Dynamic Charge (20/1), 11 – Jubaleve (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8-13-10-9-3-1
🎯 Longshots: 10-3-9-13-6-4-2-8-12-7-14-1-5-11
 
Race 5
Win:4 – Charlie's Clock (5/2)
Place:5 – Caritas (20/1)
Show:1 – Tiz General (20/1)
Other contenders:6 – Full Tank (3/1), 3 – Bearamour (3/1), 2 – Freedom Hall (5/1)
Rest of field:8 – Hope Your Happy (8/1), 9 – Arequipe (10/1), 7 – Royal Authentic (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-5-1-6-3-2
🎯 Longshots: 4-6-3-2-5-9-8-1-7
 
Race 6
Win:6 – Sinetic (3/1)
Place:7 – Seasonal Love (7/2)
Show:8 – Holy Alimony (5/1)
Other contenders:3 – Pajaro (2/1), 1 – Rennie (15/1), 4 – Watch Out World (10/1)
Rest of field:2 – Mchale (20/1), 9 – Leigh's Last Hero (15/1), 5 – Catalina Express (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-8-7-6-3-5
🎯 Longshots: 6-3-7-8-4-9-2-1-5
 
Race 7
Win:9 – Connect The Stars (5/1)
Place:5 – Screen Test (5/1)
Show:1 – Mia Familia (7/2)
Other contenders:2 – Athenix (8/1), 6 – Getting Serious (10/1), 8 – Bramble Blast (20/1), 7 – Daddario (8/1)
Rest of field:3 – Cooperation (8/1), 11 – Horsing Around (6/1), 4 – Take Charge Macy (20/1), 12 – My Lady Jbella (30/1), 10 – Belle Of The Barn (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12-9-11-7-2-5
🎯 Longshots: 1-3-2-7-9-11-8-6-5-4-12-10
 
Race 8
Win:4 – Justifiable Steel (2/1)
Place:7 – Reading Time (9/5)
Show:5 – Taco Cat Backwards (8/1)
Other contenders:1 – Boys Go To Jupiter (10/1), 9 – Queen Rocket (4/1), 3 – Iamdependingonyou (30/1)
Rest of field:6 – Good Accelebrate (10/1), 8 – Wicked Luna (30/1), 2 – Seekingbythestorm (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-4-2-3-7-6
🎯 Longshots: 7-4-5-9-6-1-3-8-2
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
Algo Picks – Algo 2
 
Race 1
Win:3 – Turkish Breeze (3/1)
Place:4 – Over My Cents (2/1)
Show:5 – Finance Finance (5/2)
Other contenders:2 – Thousand Story's (5/1), 1 – Set Ablaze (3/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-5-1-2
🎯 Longshots: 4-5-3-1-2
 
Race 2
Win:6 – Biz Biz Buzz (4/1)
Place:4 – Bushido (8/5)
Show:1 – One Timer (2/1)
Other contenders:5 – Warheart (3/1), 3 – Paynted Warrior (15/1)
Rest of field:2 – Mi Dinero (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-4-1-6-3-2
🎯 Longshots: 4-1-6-3-5-2
 
Race 3
Win:2 – Hay Grace Brennan (8/1)
Place:4 – Emerald Spun (3/5)
Show:7 – Chicoco (8/1)
Other contenders:6 – Panama Canal (7/2), 5 – Kimmy Got Glasses (6/1)
Rest of field:3 – Smileaway (30/1), 1 – Lookinforjoybaloo (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-2-4-7-6-3
🎯 Longshots: 4-2-5-7-6-1-3
 
Race 4
Win:9 – Nattie's Boss (8/1)
Place:10 – Second City Saint (8/5)
Show:3 – Hurricane Lynn (9/2)
Other contenders:13 – Forty Seven Smoker (5/1), 6 – I Love Ines (8/1), 4 – Barbour County (10/1), 2 – Snowboarder (8/1)
Rest of field:7 – Monsoon Dancer (20/1), 14 – I Think I Can (12/1), 12 – Dynamic Charge (20/1), 1 – Gelinotte (15/1), 5 – Rhyme And Verse (30/1), 8 – Hail No (15/1), 11 – Jubaleve (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8-13-9-10-3-6
🎯 Longshots: 10-3-9-13-6-4-2-8-12-7-14-1-5-11
 
Race 5
Win:4 – Charlie's Clock (5/2)
Place:6 – Full Tank (3/1)
Show:5 – Caritas (20/1)
Other contenders:3 – Bearamour (3/1), 2 – Freedom Hall (5/1), 8 – Hope Your Happy (8/1)
Rest of field:9 – Arequipe (10/1), 1 – Tiz General (20/1), 7 – Royal Authentic (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-6-5-3-2-8
🎯 Longshots: 4-6-3-2-5-9-8-1-7
 
Race 6
Win:7 – Seasonal Love (7/2)
Place:8 – Holy Alimony (5/1)
Show:6 – Sinetic (3/1)
Other contenders:3 – Pajaro (2/1), 1 – Rennie (15/1), 9 – Leigh's Last Hero (15/1)
Rest of field:2 – Mchale (20/1), 5 – Catalina Express (30/1), 4 – Watch Out World (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-7-8-6-3-5
🎯 Longshots: 6-3-7-8-4-9-2-1-5
 
Race 7
Win:3 – Cooperation (8/1)
Place:1 – Mia Familia (7/2)
Show:8 – Bramble Blast (20/1)
Other contenders:11 – Horsing Around (6/1), 6 – Getting Serious (10/1), 5 – Screen Test (5/1), 7 – Daddario (8/1)
Rest of field:9 – Connect The Stars (5/1), 4 – Take Charge Macy (20/1), 2 – Athenix (8/1), 10 – Belle Of The Barn (30/1), 12 – My Lady Jbella (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12-11-9-7-3-1
🎯 Longshots: 1-3-2-7-9-11-8-6-5-4-12-10
 
Race 8
Win:4 – Justifiable Steel (2/1)
Place:9 – Queen Rocket (4/1)
Show:5 – Taco Cat Backwards (8/1)
Other contenders:7 – Reading Time (9/5), 1 – Boys Go To Jupiter (10/1), 6 – Good Accelebrate (10/1)
Rest of field:8 – Wicked Luna (30/1), 3 – Iamdependingonyou (30/1), 2 – Seekingbythestorm (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-4-2-6-7-5
🎯 Longshots: 7-4-5-9-6-1-3-8-2
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Algo Picks – Algo 3
 
Race 1
Win:3 – Turkish Breeze (3/1)
Place:4 – Over My Cents (2/1)
Show:5 – Finance Finance (5/2)
Other contenders:2 – Thousand Story's (5/1), 1 – Set Ablaze (3/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-5-1-2
🎯 Longshots: 4-5-3-1-2
 
Race 2
Win:6 – Biz Biz Buzz (4/1)
Place:4 – Bushido (8/5)
Show:5 – Warheart (3/1)
Other contenders:1 – One Timer (2/1), 3 – Paynted Warrior (15/1)
Rest of field:2 – Mi Dinero (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-4-6-1-3-2
🎯 Longshots: 4-1-6-3-5-2
 
Race 3
Win:4 – Emerald Spun (3/5)
Place:2 – Hay Grace Brennan (8/1)
Show:7 – Chicoco (8/1)
Other contenders:5 – Kimmy Got Glasses (6/1), 6 – Panama Canal (7/2)
Rest of field:3 – Smileaway (30/1), 1 – Lookinforjoybaloo (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-2-4-7-6-1
🎯 Longshots: 4-2-5-7-6-1-3
 
Race 4
Win:9 – Nattie's Boss (8/1)
Place:3 – Hurricane Lynn (9/2)
Show:10 – Second City Saint (8/5)
Other contenders:13 – Forty Seven Smoker (5/1), 6 – I Love Ines (8/1), 4 – Barbour County (10/1), 2 – Snowboarder (8/1)
Rest of field:14 – I Think I Can (12/1), 7 – Monsoon Dancer (20/1), 12 – Dynamic Charge (20/1), 1 – Gelinotte (15/1), 8 – Hail No (15/1), 5 – Rhyme And Verse (30/1), 11 – Jubaleve (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8-13-9-10-3-6
🎯 Longshots: 10-3-9-13-6-4-2-8-12-7-14-1-5-11
 
Race 5
Win:4 – Charlie's Clock (5/2)
Place:6 – Full Tank (3/1)
Show:3 – Bearamour (3/1)
Other contenders:5 – Caritas (20/1), 2 – Freedom Hall (5/1), 9 – Arequipe (10/1)
Rest of field:8 – Hope Your Happy (8/1), 1 – Tiz General (20/1), 7 – Royal Authentic (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-6-3-5-2-9
🎯 Longshots: 4-6-3-2-5-9-8-1-7
 
Race 6
Win:7 – Seasonal Love (7/2)
Place:8 – Holy Alimony (5/1)
Show:6 – Sinetic (3/1)
Other contenders:4 – Watch Out World (10/1), 3 – Pajaro (2/1), 9 – Leigh's Last Hero (15/1)
Rest of field:2 – Mchale (20/1), 1 – Rennie (15/1), 5 – Catalina Express (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-7-8-6-3-5
🎯 Longshots: 6-3-7-8-4-9-2-1-5
 
Race 7
Win:3 – Cooperation (8/1)
Place:1 – Mia Familia (7/2)
Show:11 – Horsing Around (6/1)
Other contenders:8 – Bramble Blast (20/1), 6 – Getting Serious (10/1), 7 – Daddario (8/1), 5 – Screen Test (5/1)
Rest of field:9 – Connect The Stars (5/1), 2 – Athenix (8/1), 4 – Take Charge Macy (20/1), 12 – My Lady Jbella (30/1), 10 – Belle Of The Barn (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12-11-9-7-3-1
🎯 Longshots: 1-3-2-7-9-11-8-6-5-4-12-10
 
Race 8
Win:4 – Justifiable Steel (2/1)
Place:9 – Queen Rocket (4/1)
Show:5 – Taco Cat Backwards (8/1)
Other contenders:1 – Boys Go To Jupiter (10/1), 7 – Reading Time (9/5), 6 – Good Accelebrate (10/1)
Rest of field:3 – Iamdependingonyou (30/1), 8 – Wicked Luna (30/1), 2 – Seekingbythestorm (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-1-2-6-7-5
🎯 Longshots: 7-4-5-9-6-1-3-8-2
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 1, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 13, Mid Pace: 99, Late Pace: 48, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 1, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 37, Medications: 95, Weather: 16, Race Trouble: 82, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 1, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Kelly Edge Plays
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: multidim)    Morning-line reliability: +0.43 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)
RaceHorseMLP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $ bankroll
62 – Mchale20/147.4%+1021.4%5.00%$5.00
78 – Bramble Blast20/147.4%+1021.4%5.00%$5.00
69 – Leigh'S Last Hero15/129.9%+431.2%5.00%$5.00
61 – Rennie15/125.3%+347.3%5.00%$5.00
23 – Paynted Warrior15/123.3%+310.9%5.00%$5.00
44 – Barbour County10/121.2%+151.8%3.79%$3.79
59 – Arequipe10/121.2%+151.8%3.79%$3.79
86 – Good Accelebrate10/121.2%+151.8%3.79%$3.79
81 – Boys Go To Jupiter10/116.9%+97.7%2.44%$2.44
414 – I Think I Can12/114.2%+97.2%2.02%$2.02
76 – Getting Serious10/115.5%+80.3%2.01%$2.01
64 – Watch Out World10/114.0%+62.1%1.55%$1.55
47 – Monsoon Dancer20/16.0%+29.7%0.37%$0.37
74 – Take Charge Macy20/16.0%+29.7%0.37%$0.37
41 – Gelinotte15/17.5%+23.5%0.39%$0.39
TOTAL across 15 plays:45.5%$45.55
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
Index - Horses Running In This Card
AREQUIPEATHENIXBARBOUR COUNTYBEARAMOURBELLE OF THE BARN
BOYS GO TO JUPITERBRAMBLE BLASTBUSHIDOCARITASCATALINA EXPRESS
CHICOCOCONNECT THE STARSCOOPERATIONDADDARIODYNAMIC CHARGE
FINANCE FINANCEFORTY SEVEN SMOKERFREEDOM HALLFULL TANKGELINOTTE
GOOD ACCELEBRATEHAIL NOHAY GRACE BRENNANHOLY ALIMONYHOPE YOUR HAPPY
HURRICANE LYNNI LOVE INESI THINK I CANIAMDEPENDINGONYOUJUBALEVE
KIMMY GOT GLASSESLEIGH'S LAST HEROLOOKINFORJOYBALOOMCHALEMI DINERO
MONSOON DANCERMY LADY JBELLANATTIE'S BOSSONE TIMEROVER MY CENTS
PANAMA CANALPAYNTED WARRIORQUEEN ROCKETREADING TIMERENNIE
ROYAL AUTHENTICSCREEN TESTSEASONAL LOVESECOND CITY SAINTSEEKINGBYTHESTORM
SINETICSMILEAWAYSNOWBOARDERTACO CAT BACKWARDSTAKE CHARGE MACY
TIZ GENERALTURKISH BREEZEWARHEARTWATCH OUT WORLDWICKED LUNA

 


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