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Friday marks the eighth day of Keeneland’s prestigious Fall Meet, featuring 10 competitive races with total purses exceeding $1 million. The card is highlighted by the Grade 2 Sycamore Stakes in Race 9, a $400,000 contest at 1½ miles on the turf that serves as a key Breeders’ Cup prep race. The day offers excellent betting opportunities with significant carryovers expected in the multi-race wagers.
Weather and Track Conditions
Sunny skies are forecast for Friday with temperatures reaching near 70 degrees, providing ideal racing conditions. Track conditions as of Thursday evening show the main track rated fast with 18.95% moisture content, while the turf course is listed as good with the rail positioned 30 feet out and grass height at 5 inches. No precipitation is expected, maintaining optimal surfaces for both dirt and turf racing.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – Starter Allowance (1:00 PM)
Distance: 6 Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $50,000
Key Contenders:
Ludwig (#2, 6-1) emerges as the top selection with trainer Norm Casse adding hot rider Luis Saez. The 6-year-old gelding shows consistent form and benefits from the significant jockey upgrade.
Shape Note (#5, 5-2) represents solid value for trainer Michael Maker with Tyler Gaffalione aboard. This runner has proven effective over the Keeneland surface and fits well at this level.
Secondary Choice:
Busk (#1) with Irad Ortiz Jr. provides additional depth to the wagering pool and should be competitive at a price.
Pace Analysis:
Moderate early pace expected with Shape Note likely pressing from the start. The race should set up well for closers in the final furlong.
Wagering Strategy:
Daily Double combining Ludwig and Shape Note with Race 2 selections offers solid value.
Race 2 – Claiming (1:32 PM)
Distance: 6 Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $58,000
Key Contenders:
Blazing Freedom (#2, 4-1) represents the Brad Cox stable with Tyler Gaffalione riding this debut winner. The filly showed promise in her initial start and should improve with experience.
Ashkenazi (#5, 7-2) brings strong credentials with Luis Saez for trainer Eddie Kenneally. This runner has the tactical speed to be prominently placed throughout.
Secondary Choices:
Satisfied Mind (#9) with Irad Ortiz Jr. for Wesley Ward provides additional betting interest as a potential longshot play.
Pace Analysis:
Likely honest pace with several speedsters in the field setting up potential closing kicks.
Race 3 – Maiden Special Weight (2:04 PM)
Distance: 6½ Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $85,000
The $85,000 maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies restricted to those who sold or RNA’d for $65,000 or less presents a competitive dozen-horse field where class distinctions and professional connections will prove decisive.
Top Contenders
Beautiful McKinzie (#8) – 5-1 Morning Line
Beautiful McKinzie emerges as the Best Bet selection according to Keeneland’s official tip sheet, representing a compelling value proposition at 5-1 odds. The daughter of Grade 1 winner McKinzie brings significant pedigree appeal, being sired by a horse who won graded stakes at ages two, three, and four from seven furlongs to 1⅛ miles. Trainer Eddie Kenneally maintains an impressive 31% win rate and 56% in-the-money percentage with juveniles, providing strong statistical support. Jockey Ben Curtis adds competency to the assignment, and the filly’s breeding suggests she should handle the 6½-furlong distance effectively.
The morning workout pattern appears solid, and Kenneally’s decision to debut her in restricted company rather than open maiden special weight suggests realistic expectations while maximizing winning potential.
Amazing Amanda (#6) – 7/2 Morning Line
The place selection on the tip sheet brings the formidable combination of trainer Mark Casse and jockey Jose Ortiz to this contest. Casse maintains a 16% win rate and 37% ITM percentage, while his partnership with Ortiz produces a 27% strike rate. The filly has earned $64,000 in two career starts, demonstrating ability with a second-place finish in her most recent outing over 5½ furlongs on dirt.
Amazing Amanda represents the “proven commodity” angle in this field, having shown consistent improvement in her limited experience. Her tactical speed should prove beneficial in the likely pace scenario, and the step up to 6½ furlongs appears well-suited to her running style.
Turkish Pistachio (#10) – 9/2 Morning Line
The show selection brings Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard for trainer Carlos David, creating an intriguing combination despite the modest statistics. David maintains a 10% win rate with juveniles, but Ortiz Jr.’s 21% win percentage and 54% ITM rate elevate this filly’s chances significantly. She finished fourth of six in her lone start at Belmont Aqueduct over six furlongs on dirt, earning $42,000 while gaining valuable experience.
The daughter of Catholic Boy possesses the breeding to improve substantially with experience, and the distance stretching to 6½ furlongs should prove beneficial for her closing style.
Killa Sally (#11) – 4-1 Morning Line
The wild card selection features Flavien Prat making his debut aboard this filly for trainer Kenneth McPeek. While McPeek shows only a 4% win rate with juveniles, his 21% ITM percentage suggests he gets his horses competitive. Prat’s presence (19% wins, 54% ITM) adds significant credibility to a first-time starter, and the 4-1 odds suggest connections have seen enough in training to warrant confidence.
The filly by Volatile brings speed-oriented breeding that should translate well to this distance, making her dangerous if she shows natural ability on debut.
Secondary Contenders
Lady Valor (#3) at 10-1 with Luis Saez presents interesting value for trainer Michael Campbell. She’s earned $17,050 in two starts with a second and third-place finish, demonstrating consistency while stepping up in company. Her “Fastest Closer” running style could prove advantageous if the pace unfolds favorably.
Miss Super Mo (#1) rounds out the tip sheet’s alternate selections at 6-1 with trainer Bret Calhoun, who maintains strong juvenile statistics (28% wins, 56% ITM).
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario appears moderate with several fillies possessing tactical speed but none showing overwhelming early speed. Amazing Amanda’s “Fast Deep” style suggests she’ll be positioned forwardly, while Lady Valor’s closing kick could prove dangerous if fractions become contested. Beautiful McKinzie and Turkish Pistachio should benefit from tracking the pace and making their moves at the appropriate time.
Key Angles
The pedigree upgrade angle strongly favors Beautiful McKinzie, whose sire McKinzie represents a significant class jump over most rivals’ breeding. The trainer specialty angle supports both Kenneally (31% with juveniles) and Casse (proven with two-year-old development). The jockey upgrade angle applies to multiple horses, particularly Turkish Pistachio gaining Irad Ortiz Jr..
Wagering Strategy
Win bet: Beautiful McKinzie (#8) at 5-1 represents excellent value as the tip sheet’s top selection with solid connections and breeding.
Exacta: Box Beautiful McKinzie (#8) with Amazing Amanda (#6) for the most likely finish.
Trifecta: Use Amazing Amanda (#6), Beautiful McKinzie (#8), and Turkish Pistachio (#10) in the top three positions, adding Killa Sally (#11) for depth.
Longshot special: Lady Valor (#3) at 10-1 with Luis Saez offers value for those seeking bigger payoffs in exotic wagers.
The race sets up as a competitive maiden affair where connections and breeding should separate the contenders from the pretenders, with Beautiful McKinzie offering the best combination of value and winning potential.
Race 4 – Claiming (2:36 PM)
Distance: 7 Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $50,000
Key Contenders:
Truly Legit (#2, 5-2) moves up in class for Michael Tomlinson with Tyler Gaffalione providing the perfect pilot. The step up in distance should suit this improving runner.
Call the Cavalry (#4, 8-1) for Kenny McPeek with Emmanuel Esquivel offers excellent value in this competitive field.
Big Salt Lick (#6, 4-1) brings Ghostzapper breeding and represents trainer Hugo Andrade with Oscar Villarreal riding.
Wagering Strategy:
Exacta box featuring these three selections provides excellent coverage at reasonable cost.
Race 5 – Claiming (3:08 PM)
Distance: 6½ Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $51,000
Key Contender:
Hurricane Debbie (#5, 2-1) stands as the logical favorite with a proven record over the Keeneland surface. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has Irad Ortiz Jr. returning to the saddle for this accomplished mare.
Secondary Choices:
Antique Silver (#7) with Luis Saez provides an alternative for exotic wagering, while Promises to Dance (#10) with Tyler Gaffalione offers late-running appeal.
Wagering Strategy:
Straight win bet on Hurricane Debbie represents the best value in this race.
Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight (3:40 PM)
Distance: 6½ Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $85,000
The $85,000 maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies restricted to those who sold or RNA’d for $65,000 or less presents a competitive dozen-horse field where professional connections and debut value will separate the contenders from the pretenders.
Top Contenders
Justice Addition (#4) – 7/2 Morning Line
Justice Addition emerges as the algorithmic top selection according to Sports from the Basement’s expected order of finish, ranking as the clear #1 choice with a 1.0 expected rating and 2-1 value line. The daughter of Jimmy Creed makes her career debut for the powerhouse combination of trainer Brad Cox and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.. This represents a formidable debut angle, as Cox has historically excelled with first-time starters, though notably he is 0-for-12 with two-year-old debut winners in Fall Meet dirt races at Keeneland despite his overall excellence.
The filly is owned by Max Hodge and bred by the University of Kentucky, suggesting solid foundational breeding despite the restricted nature of this contest. The Jimmy Creed bloodline has shown consistent success with juveniles, and the Cox-Ortiz Jr. partnership (21% wins, 54% ITM) provides significant statistical support.
Struck at Midnight (#3) – 9/2 Morning Line
The second algorithmic choice with a 1.7 expected rating brings an intriguing surface switch angle. Struck at Midnight finished second in her debut over 6½ furlongs on the turf at Kentucky Downs on September 7, running at 20-1 odds with Jose Ortiz aboard for trainer Joe Sharp. The fact that connections are switching from turf to dirt suggests they believe the surface change will benefit her running style.
Sharp’s barn shows a strong 22% win rate when making surface switches from turf to dirt, providing statistical support for this tactical move. The retention of Jose Ortiz (19% wins, 51% ITM) adds continuity and confidence to the assignment. Her breeding by an unnamed sire suggests she fits the restricted nature of this event while still possessing enough ability to compete effectively.
Endless Glory (#11) – 5/1 Morning Line
The third algorithmic selection with a 2.0 expected rating represents a first-time starter for trainer Kevin Rice with jockey Axel Concepcion taking the assignment. At 5-1 morning line odds, she offers reasonable value if she shows natural ability on debut. First-time starters in restricted maiden company often represent hidden value, particularly when connections show confidence with realistic odds.
Secondary Contenders
Knickleandime (#6) – 6/1 Morning Line
The fourth algorithmic choice at 2.7 expected rating with Luis Saez riding for trainer Robertino Diodoro brings professional connections to a first-time starter. Saez’s presence (19% wins, 54% ITM) suggests this filly has shown enough in training to warrant attention from a leading rider.
Queen of Queens (#8) – 20/1 Morning Line
The daughter of Practical Joke represents the longshot special in this field with Flavien Prat taking the mount for trainer D. Whitworth Beckman. At 20-1 odds, she fits the “upset-minded” category that appeals to exotic players seeking larger payoffs. Practical Joke has proven successful as a sire of juvenile runners, and Prat’s 19% win rate with 54% ITM percentage adds credibility to a longshot assignment.
The algorithmic model rates her with a 12.0 expected finish, but longshots in restricted maiden company can often outrun expectations when properly placed.
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario appears moderate to contested with several fillies showing early speed tendencies. Justice Addition figures to utilize her tactical speed from the favorable #4 post position, while Struck at Midnight has shown the ability to track pace and make a sustained move. The 6½-furlong distance should allow for tactical positioning without excessive early pressure.
Key Angles
The debut angle strongly favors Justice Addition with the Cox-Ortiz Jr. combination, despite the trainer’s statistical quirk with Fall Meet juvenile debuts. The surface switch angle supports Struck at Midnight with Sharp’s 22% success rate in similar scenarios. The professional connections angle applies to multiple runners, particularly those with Saez, Prat, and Ortiz aboard.
Wagering Strategy
Win bet: Justice Addition (#4) at 7/2 represents solid value as the algorithmic top choice with elite connections.
Place bet: Struck at Midnight (#3) at 9/2 offers reasonable place value with her proven ability and favorable surface switch.
Exacta: Box Justice Addition (#4) and Struck at Midnight (#3) for the most likely 1-2 finish.
Trifecta: Use Justice Addition (#4) and Struck at Midnight (#3) on top, with Endless Glory (#11) and Knickleandime (#6) for depth.
Longshot special: Queen of Queens (#8) at 20-1 with Flavien Prat offers significant value for those seeking upset potential in exotic wagers.
The race sets up as a battle between the elite debut connections of Justice Addition and the proven ability with favorable angles of Struck at Midnight, making them the logical focal points for all wagering strategies.
Race 7 – Allowance (4:12 PM)
Distance: 1 3/16 Miles Turf | Purse: $120,000
The $120,000 allowance for fillies and mares three years old and upward presents a competitive 15-horse field on the turf with several prominent trainers and connections represented. The marathon distance of 1 3/16 miles will test stamina and tactical positioning on Keeneland’s expansive turf course.
Top Contenders
Fleetingly (#11) – 9/2 Morning Line
Fleetingly emerges as the algorithmic top selection with an impressive 19% win prediction and 57% show probability according to BettingNews analysis. The four-year-old filly brings the formidable combination of trainer Chad Brown and jockey Flavien Prat, who maintain a strong partnership record. Brown’s exceptional statistics include a 17% win rate and 67% ITM percentage at Keeneland, while Prat contributes an 11% win rate with 78% ITM over the distance.
Her recent form includes a third-place finish in a 1½-mile dirt race at Saratoga, followed by a second-place effort over 1⅛ miles on dirt. The return to turf should benefit her “Fastest Closer” running style, and Brown’s expertise with turf routing fillies provides significant confidence. With earnings of $138,782 from eight career starts, she possesses the class and experience for this level.
Cha Cha Chukka (#4) – 6/1 Morning Line
The VSiN top selection represents an attractive value proposition with the powerful combination of trainer Michael Maker and the rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz Jr.. Maker maintains a 22% win rate with 52% ITM percentage, while the addition of Ortiz Jr. (21% wins, 54% ITM) creates a significant positive angle. The four-year-old filly has earned $283,080 from 18 career starts with three wins, six seconds, and nine thirds, demonstrating consistent competitiveness at this level.
Her recent fourth-place finish over 1.3125 miles at Kentucky Downs suggests she handles the marathon distance well, and her “Fast Closer” style should prove beneficial with the expected pace scenario. The algorithmic model supports her with a 20% win prediction and 31% place probability.
Unmerited Favor (#9) – 6/1 Morning Line
The third algorithmic choice brings Jose Ortiz aboard for trainer Kenny McPeek, creating another professional connection with statistical support. Ortiz maintains a 22% win rate with 44% ITM percentage, while McPeek contributes a 25% win rate and 25% ITM at the distance. The three-year-old filly won impressively over 1.3125 miles at Kentucky Downs in her most recent start, demonstrating her affinity for marathon distances.
With earnings of $242,000 from just five career starts, she represents the “improving with experience” angle. Her “Fast Stalker” running style should position her well tactically, and the algorithmic model rates her with 13% win probability and 41% show chances.
Secondary Contenders
Vina Arana (IRE) (#2) – 2/1 Morning Line
The European import brings John Velazquez aboard for trainer Jack Sisterson, representing a significant connections upgrade. She won her American debut at Saratoga after being a maiden through four starts in Ireland, including a close third in a Group 3 at Leopardstown. Her “Slowest Leader” running style could prove advantageous if she can dictate terms on the front end.
Sisterson shows excellent statistics with layoff horses, and Velazquez’s 33% win rate with 50% ITM at the distance provides strong jockey support. At 2-1 morning line odds, she represents the “class relief” angle moving from graded stakes company to allowance level.
Hay Stack (#6) – 8/1 Morning Line
The VSiN secondary selection combines trainer Whit Beckman with Luis Saez for an attractive value proposition at 8-1. The five-year-old mare has earned $698,470 from 25 career starts, demonstrating both durability and class. Her recent form includes competitive efforts at Kentucky Downs, and her “Fast Stalker” style should benefit from the expected pace dynamics.
Saez maintains strong statistics with 83% ITM rate over the distance, providing jockey confidence for this marathon test.
Longshot Considerations
Be Together (#13) – 15/1 Morning Line
The improving three-year-old won impressively over 1 1/6 miles on dirt in her most recent start, showing significant advancement. With only three career starts and a 33% win rate, she represents the “lightly raced upside” angle. Trainer Jonathan Thomas shows 100% ITM rate at the distance, albeit from limited sample size.
Bijou Baby (#14) – 12/1 Morning Line
The most experienced runner brings 31 career starts with seven wins and strong turf credentials. Her recent victory over one mile at Indiana Downs demonstrates current form, and her “Fastest Closer” style matches the likely pace scenario.
Pace Analysis
The 15-horse field suggests a moderate to fast pace with several early speed types including Vina Arana (IRE) and El Joury. The marathon distance should allow for tactical positioning, favoring the numerous closers including Fleetingly, Cha Cha Chukka, and Unmerited Favor. The wide turf course at Keeneland provides ample room for late runs, potentially setting up perfectly for Brown’s filly.
Key Angles
The trainer superiority angle strongly favors Chad Brown with his exceptional turf record and partnership with Prat. The rider upgrade angle applies to Cha Cha Chukka gaining Ortiz Jr. and represents significant value. The European import angle supports Vina Arana (IRE) with Sisterson’s layoff success. The distance specialist angle benefits horses with proven stamina like Unmerited Favor and Fleetingly.
Wagering Strategy
Win bet: Fleetingly (#11) at 9/2 offers excellent value as the algorithmic top choice with elite connections.
Place/Show: Cha Cha Chukka (#4) at 6/1 provides solid value with the Maker-Ortiz Jr. upgrade.
Exacta: Box Fleetingly (#11), Cha Cha Chukka (#4), and Unmerited Favor (#9) for the most likely finish.
Trifecta: Use Fleetingly (#11) and Cha Cha Chukka (#4) on top, with Unmerited Favor (#9), Vina Arana (IRE) (#2), and Hay Stack (#6) underneath.
Longshot special: Be Together (#13) at 15-1 offers significant upset potential for those seeking value in exotic wagers.
The race sets up as a classic turf route where stamina, pace positioning, and connections will determine the outcome, with Fleetingly representing the optimal combination of value and winning probability.
Race 8 – Maiden Special Weight (4:44 PM)
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles Dirt | Purse: $110,000
The $110,000 maiden special weight for two-year-old colts at 1 1/16 miles represents the premier juvenile event on today’s card with preference given to horses that have not started for less than $75,000. The competitive 15-horse field features several prominent trainers and highly regarded prospects making their debuts or stretching out to two turns for the first time.
Top Contenders
Vino Vici (#11) – 5/2 Morning Line
Vino Vici emerges as the algorithmic top selection with a 1.0 expected rating and the Sports from the Basement consensus choice at 5/2 morning line odds. The son of Vino Rosso brings the formidable combination of trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Jose Ortiz, who maintain excellent statistics together. Pletcher shows a 20% win rate with 54% ITM percentage, while Ortiz contributes 22% wins and 57% ITM.
The colt has earned $22,000 from two career starts with a consistent “3-3” form line, showing Fastest Leads running style that should prove beneficial in this longer distance. His third-place finishes at Saratoga demonstrate competitive ability, and the stretch to 1 1/16 miles appears well-suited to his pedigree as a son of Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso. The Calumet Farm colorbearer represents excellent value as the morning line favorite with proven form.
Further Ado (#8) – 4/1 Morning Line
The Sports from the Basement second choice brings the elite combination of trainer Brad Cox and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. at attractive 4/1 odds. Cox maintains exceptional statistics with a 31% win rate and 61% ITM percentage, while Ortiz Jr. contributes 24% wins and 57% ITM. The Tom Leach selection on the official tip sheet notes this colt “comes off two solid runs at Saratoga for the Cox barn and this colt now stretches out to two turns–and Cox wins at 37 percent on the sprint-to-route angle”.
Further Ado has earned $41,000 from two starts with a third-place finish in his most recent seven-furlong effort at Saratoga. His “Fastest Stalker” running style positions him perfectly for the longer distance, and the Cox barn’s expertise with developing juveniles provides significant confidence. The algorithmic model supports him with 1.8 expected rating and 43% show probability.
Ambassador Blue (#2) – 8/1 Morning Line
The value selection at 8/1 morning line odds presents compelling statistics according to BettingNews analysis, showing 20% win probability and 61% show chances. The son of Charlatan races for trainer Danny Gargan, whose 33% win rate with small sample size suggests selective placement. The retention of Luis Saez (19% wins, 43% ITM) provides jockey continuity from his previous starts.
Ambassador Blue has earned $60,000 from two career starts, demonstrating his competitive nature with a fourth-place finish over 1 1/16 miles at Saratoga in his most recent effort. His “Fast Stalker” style should benefit from the expected pace scenario, and the breeding by Charlatan suggests ability to handle the distance. Gargan’s recent Grade 1 success in the Belmont Stakes adds credibility to the barn’s current form.
Tiz Authority (#9) – 6/1 Morning Line
The third algorithmic choice with 2.8 expected rating brings Edgar Morales aboard for trainer Chris Hartman. The colt has earned $72,000 from just one career start, finishing fourth at 12-1 odds in a competitive Churchill Downs maiden over six furlongs. The significant earnings from a single outing suggest he competed in quality company and ran respectably.
As a son of Tiz the Law, he possesses the breeding to handle the step up in distance effectively. Hartman shows modest 12% win rate but 37% ITM percentage, while Morales contributes 14% wins and 40% ITM. The 6/1 morning line odds offer reasonable value for a colt with proven earnings and distance-favorable breeding.
Secondary Contenders
Alghero (#4) – 10/1 Morning Line
The Chad Brown-Flavien Prat combination represents a dangerous debut angle at 10/1 odds. Brown shows 14% win rate with 64% ITM percentage at the meet, while Prat contributes 24% wins and 63% ITM. The algorithmic model rates him with 21% win probability and 34% place chances despite being a first-time starter, suggesting strong workout reports.
Trust But Verify (#10) – 8/1 Morning Line
The Kenny McPeek first-time starter with Julien Leparoux offers intriguing value at 8/1. McPeek maintains 15% win rate with 43% ITM at the meet, while Leparoux shows 13% wins and 48% ITM. The algorithmic model assigns him 3.8 expected rating, suggesting competitive potential.
Longshot Considerations
Beale Street Boy (#7) – 10/1 Morning Line
The proven earner has banked $13,200 from two starts with a third-place finish, showing “Fast Stalker” style. At 10/1 with Luan Machado riding, he represents value for exotic players seeking longer prices.
Fuzzbuster (#13) – 15/1 Morning Line
The consistent performer shows “3-2” form with $35,000 in earnings and 100% ITM rate from two starts. Luis Saez takes over for trainer Victoria Oliver, whose 33% win rate and 58% ITM percentage provide statistical support despite the longshot odds.
Pace Analysis
The large 15-horse field suggests a moderate to contested pace with several speed types including Vino Vici (Fastest Leads) and multiple stalkers. The 1 1/16-mile distance should allow for tactical positioning, potentially favoring the proven runners like Vino Vici and Further Ado who have experience navigating competitive fields. The wide track at Keeneland provides ample room for positioning, benefiting horses with tactical speed.
Key Angles
The trainer superiority angle strongly favors the Cox and Pletcher entries with their exceptional juvenile records. The sprint-to-route angle benefits Further Ado with Cox’s 37% success rate in similar scenarios. The proven earnings angle supports Ambassador Blue and Tiz Authority with their competitive efforts. The debut connections angle applies to Alghero with the Brown-Prat combination.
Wagering Strategy
Win bet: Vino Vici (#11) at 5/2 offers solid value as the algorithmic top choice with proven form and elite connections.
Place/Show: Further Ado (#8) at 4/1 represents excellent value with Cox’s sprint-to-route success and Ortiz Jr. riding.
Exacta: Box Vino Vici (#11), Further Ado (#8), and Ambassador Blue (#2) for the most likely finish.
Trifecta: Use Vino Vici (#11) and Further Ado (#8) on top, with Ambassador Blue (#2), Tiz Authority (#9), and Alghero (#4) underneath.
Superfecta: The BettingNews algorithmic superfecta selection of Ambassador Blue (#2), Brave Force (#1), Further Ado (#8), Alghero (#4) offers potential value for those seeking maximum payoffs.
The race sets up as a classic juvenile test where proven form, professional connections, and distance breeding will separate the contenders, with Vino Vici representing the optimal combination of class and value.
Race 9 – Sycamore Stakes (5:16 PM)
Distance: 1½ Miles Turf | Purse: $400,000
The $400,000 Grade 2 Sycamore Stakes represents today’s feature event, bringing together eleven accomplished turf marathoners for the most prestigious race on the card. The 1½-mile distance on Keeneland’s expansive turf course will test stamina, tactical positioning, and the ability to produce a sustained finish over the final three furlongs.
Top Contenders
Ohana Honor (#10) – 5/1 Morning Line
Ohana Honor emerges as the Eric Solomon top selection and represents exceptional value at 5-1 morning line odds with the return of Flavien Prat to the irons for trainer Shug McGaughey. The five-year-old Honor Code ridgling owns a commanding gate-to-wire victory at this exact distance on this course in April 2024, demonstrating his affinity for both the track and trip.
After an 11-month layoff following a disappointing effort in last year’s Sycamore, he returned with a solid effort in the Tapit Stakes at Kentucky Downs, earning $97,000 while finishing second at a distance shorter than his optimal trip. The pace angle strongly favors his chances, as DRF analysis notes “Flavien Prat on Ohana Honor could tap his mount for whatever speed he possesses after leaving the Sycamore starting gate” in a race lacking natural early speed.
McGaughey’s decision to give Ohana Honor a prep race at Kentucky Downs appears designed specifically to prepare him for this Grade 2 assignment. His tactical speed should allow Prat to secure an ideal stalking position or even dictate terms on the front end if he chooses aggressive tactics.
Utah Beach (#4) – 7/2 Morning Line
The morning line favorite and BloodHorse feature horse brings proven Grade 2 credentials, having won both the Elkhorn Stakes (at this distance) and Louisville Stakes earlier this year at Churchill Downs and Keeneland respectively. Utah Beach attempts to become the first horse to complete the Elkhorn-Sycamore double in the same season.
Trainer Ignacio Correas IV sends out the multiple graded stakes winner with Jose Ortiz taking the assignment at the distance where he excels. His fourth-place finish in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer two starts back demonstrates his ability to compete at the highest level, with Eric Solomon noting “any of those runners would likely be even money among this field”.
The forgiving angle applies to his poor Kentucky Downs performance, as Solomon states he’s “always willing to forgive” such efforts, especially when a horse returns to a course where he’s previously succeeded. Utah Beach carries the high weight of 124 pounds but possesses the class advantage over most rivals.
Safe Trip Home (#2) – 6/1 Morning Line
The progressive longshot represents Eric Solomon’s “B” selection and embodies the classic “trending up” angle that often succeeds in Grade 2 company. The More Than Ready gelding has transformed into a marathon specialist under trainer Doug Cowans, winning his last two starts including the Colonial Cup Stakes at Colonial Downs in impressive fashion.
Emmanuel Esquivel retains the mount after guiding him to that Colonial Cup victory, where he “closed from fifth and easily pulled away to a 2¼-length” triumph at 1½ miles. His progression from a 45-1 longshot fourth in April to consecutive victories demonstrates significant improvement on the turf marathon circuit.
The class jump from allowance and overnight stakes to Grade 2 company represents a significant challenge, but his recent form suggests he’s capable of handling better. At 6-1 morning line odds, he offers attractive value for those seeking alternatives to the favorites.
Secondary Contenders
Grand Sonata (#5) – 4/1 Morning Line
The defending Kentucky Turf Cup winner brings Tyler Gaffalione aboard for trainer Todd Pletcher in what represents a significant class reduction from his typical Grade 1 company. The six-year-old Medaglia d’Oro horse won last year’s Kentucky Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs and finished second in both the United Nations (G2) and Arlington Million (G1) in recent efforts.
His recent effort being “eased” in Saratoga’s Belmont Gold Cup when the race came off the turf suggests he may have needed that race for fitness. Whisper Hill Farm’s campaigner possesses the proven class and distance credentials to factor significantly.
Goldeneye (#9) – 5/1 Morning Line
The Kenny McPeek-Irad Ortiz Jr. combination brings a six-year-old gelding with three starts at this distance, recording two victories at the marathon trip. Millie Ball’s analysis notes his “tactical speed” and praises his recent effort off a grueling 2 1/16-mile race.
His fourth-place finish in the recent Bowling Green Gold Cup demonstrates his ability to compete in graded company, and the return to his preferred 1½-mile distance should benefit his chances. McPeek’s expertise with turf routers adds confidence to the selection.
Anglophile (#11) – 8/1 Morning Line
The VSiN value selection draws the outside post with Luis Saez for trainer Brian Lynch, representing the “hunch play” that Millie Ball considered before ultimately passing. At 8-1 odds, he offers potential value in exotic wagers while trying the 1½-mile distance for the first time.
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario strongly favors tactical speed and closers, with Eric Solomon noting the lack of natural early speed throughout the field. Mercante (#3) possesses some early speed but appeared reluctant to use it aggressively in the Kentucky Turf Cup. This setup could allow Ohana Honor to secure ideal positioning or even dictate comfortable fractions if Prat chooses aggressive tactics.
The 1½-mile distance and wide Keeneland turf course provide ample opportunity for positioning and late runs, potentially setting up perfectly for closers like Utah Beach and Safe Trip Home.
Key Angles
The course specialist angle strongly supports Ohana Honor with his commanding course and distance victory. The class relief angle benefits Grand Sonata stepping down from Grade 1 company. The progressive improvement angle favors Safe Trip Home with his recent winning streak. The proven distance angle applies to multiple runners but particularly Utah Beach and Goldeneye.
Wagering Strategy
Win bet: Ohana Honor (#10) at 5-1 offers exceptional value as Solomon’s top selection with ideal pace positioning.
Place bet: Utah Beach (#4) at 7/2 provides solid value given his proven Grade 2 credentials and course success.
Exacta: Box Ohana Honor (#10), Utah Beach (#4), and Safe Trip Home (#2) for the most likely finish.
Trifecta: Use Ohana Honor (#10) and Utah Beach (#4) on top, with Safe Trip Home (#2), Grand Sonata (#5), and Goldeneye (#9) underneath.
Longshot special: Anglophile (#11) at 8-1 with Luis Saez offers upset potential in exotic wagers for those seeking longer prices.
The Grade 2 Sycamore Stakes presents a competitive field where pace dynamics, class, and distance specialization will determine the outcome, with Ohana Honor representing the optimal combination of value and winning probability in the day’s feature event.
Race 10 – Starter Allowance (5:48 PM)
Distance: 6½ Furlongs Dirt | Purse: $63,000
Key Contenders:
Atarah (#1, 3-1) for trainer Linda Rice with Flavien Prat represents the logical choice in this competitive finale.
Risuko (#4, 4-1) for Carlos David with Irad Ortiz Jr. provides strong alternative value.
Longshot Play:
Up the Creek (#10, 12-1) with Luan Machado offers tremendous value based on proven Keeneland form and returning fresh from a summer break.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Irad Ortiz Jr. enters the card with strong momentum and multiple mounts in key spots including Hurricane Debbie, Cha Cha Chukka, and Goldeneye. His tactical riding style particularly suits the turf races.
Luis Saez brings current hot form to several promising mounts including Ludwig, Ashkenazi, and Ambassador Blue. His aggressive early positioning should benefit speed-favoring races.
Jose Ortiz recorded three winners on Thursday with an average $2 win payoff of $13.90, indicating good value in his selections. He rides key contenders in Struck at Midnight and Vino Vici.
Tyler Gaffalione provides multiple upgrades throughout the card, particularly notable on Shape Note and Truly Legit where trainer confidence appears high.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Brad Cox saddles strong contenders in Blazing Freedom and Justice Addition, bringing his exceptional juvenile record to multiple races.
Michael Maker double-barrel approach with Shape Note and Cha Cha Chukka suggests confidence in both runners with significant jockey changes.
Kenneth McPeek relies on Goldeneye in the featured Sycamore Stakes, where his turf expertise provides distinct advantages.
Norm Casse upgrades Ludwig with Luis Saez, indicating strong confidence in this starter allowance candidate.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Single Race Focus:
Hurricane Debbie in Race 5 represents the day’s most confident selection at reasonable 2-1 morning line odds.
Daily Double Opportunities:
Race 1-2 combination of Ludwig/Shape Note with Blazing Freedom/Ashkenazi provides solid foundation betting.
Late Double Value:
Races 9-10 featuring Goldeneye/Anglophile with Atarah/Risuko offers excellent multi-race payoff potential.
Longshot Special:
Up the Creek (#10) in the finale provides exceptional 12-1 value based on Keeneland form and fresh condition.
Pick 3 Strategy:
Races 7-8-9 combining turf specialists, improving juveniles, and stakes contenders should produce generous payoffs with proper selection depth.
