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Belmont at the Big A presents an 11-race card featuring competitive action across all divisions, highlighted by the Grade 3 Glen Cove Stakes for three-year-old fillies and the Artie Schiller Stakes. The card offers strong betting opportunities with maiden specials, allowance contests, and claiming races providing diverse wagering angles throughout the afternoon.
Track Conditions and Weather Forecast
Current track conditions show a fast dirt surface and firm turf course, ideal racing conditions for Saturday’s card. The weather forecast calls for cloudy skies with temperatures reaching 66°F and dropping to 55°F, with no precipitation expected. The lack of rain ensures optimal surface conditions for both dirt and turf races, favoring horses with tactical speed and those capable of making sustained runs.
The turf courses feature rails positioned at varying distances, with the outer turf rail at 12 feet for races 3 and 10, and 18 feet for races 4, 7, and 11. These rail positions should provide fair racing surfaces without significant bias toward inside or outside runners.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight (12:10 PM)
Key Contenders: Pride of the Union enters as the most experienced runner with multiple starts including a recent runner-up finish. Top Player brings Grade 1 connections with trainer George Weaver and jockey Ricardo Santana Jr., suggesting strong stable confidence in this New York-bred colt.
Secondary Choices: Royal Riddle shows tactical speed that could prove effective in this six-horse field, while Mission Critical offers potential improvement in his second career start.
Longshot Consideration: Hurricane Kaz and Rumblyoungmanrumbl represent value options with capable connections, though both face questions about readiness.
Pace Analysis: The small field should produce moderate early fractions with Pride of the Union and Royal Riddle likely setting honest pace, benefiting closers willing to rally late.
Wagering Angles: Pride of the Union offers solid win value at projected 5-2 odds based on experience advantage. Exacta combinations using Pride of the Union over Top Player and Royal Riddle provide attractive payouts.
Race 2 – Claiming ($32,000) (12:41 PM)
Key Contenders: Loco Abarrio brings consistent form and tactical versatility under Christopher Elliott’s guidance. Riyadh Moon offers early speed that could prove decisive in this competitive claiming heat.
Secondary Choices: Gatsby represents value despite recent struggles, while Great Richie M provides solid pace-pressing ability.
Longshot Consideration: Ten Cent Town offers potential at longer odds with Dylan Davis aboard, though consistency remains a concern.
Pace Analysis: Multiple speed horses should create honest early fractions, setting up well for tactical runners like Loco Abarrio who can position effectively throughout.
Wagering Angles: Loco Abarrio provides win value at projected 5-2 odds, with exacta combinations over speed horses offering attractive returns.
Race 3 – Maiden Special Weight Turf (1:12 PM)
Key Contenders: True Legend brings Grade 1 trainer George Weaver’s expertise to this competitive turf maiden, making him the logical favorite. Baby Meanie offers early speed that could prove effective on the firm turf surface.
Secondary Choices: Story of Rory and Brilliant Fury provide tactical options with experienced connections, while Thirsted offers potential improvement in his turf debut.
Longshot Consideration: Kid Rich and Chummers represent value options in this competitive 10-horse field, though both face questions about surface suitability.
Pace Analysis: The large field should produce competitive early positioning with multiple horses showing early speed, potentially setting up a pace-favoring scenario.
Wagering Angles: True Legend provides solid win value at projected 9-5 odds, with trifecta combinations including longshots offering substantial payouts.
Race 4 – Artie Schiller Stakes (1:43 PM)
The Artie Schiller Stakes presents a compelling betting race featuring a class dropper, a horse-for-course specialist, and an improving stakes newcomer in a competitive seven-horse field.
Key Contenders
Major Dude (2) – 5-1 ML
Jockey: John R. Velazquez Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Major Dude enters as the logical favorite based on significant class relief after competing in graded stakes company throughout 2025. The Todd Pletcher-trained son of Bolt d’Oro has proven remarkably consistent this year, finishing no worse than fourth in five of his six 2025 starts, with his lone poor effort being a sixth-place finish in Grade company.
The five-year-old brings impressive credentials as a past Grade 2 winner who captured the Grade 3 Kitten’s Joy Stakes at Gulfstream Park. His recent campaign included respectable efforts in the Grade 3 Poker Stakes at Saratoga and the Listed Opening Verse Stakes at Churchill Downs. The Hall of Fame combination of Pletcher and Velazquez adds significant confidence, particularly in stakes company where both excel.
Major Dude’s pedigree suggests he’s bred to handle this distance and surface, being out of the stakes-placed Distorted Humor mare Mary Rita from the elite Personal Ensign female family. This class drop represents his best winning opportunity in months against a field lacking his graded stakes credentials.
Big Everest (GB) (6) – 3-1 ML
Jockey: Manuel Franco Trainer: Miguel Clement
Big Everest brings the most compelling course-and-distance advantage in this field with a dominant 5-for-9 record over the Aqueduct turf courses. The seven-year-old gelding adds further appeal as the defending champion of this very race, having captured the 2022 Artie Schiller Stakes.
The British-bred runner possesses tactical early speed that allows him to control his own destiny when able to secure favorable positioning. When Big Everest gets comfortable fractions up front, he becomes extremely difficult to pass in the stretch, making him particularly dangerous if he can establish command early.
Miguel Clement has proven adept at placing this horse in spots where his course experience provides maximum advantage. The rail position at 18 feet should provide a fair surface that won’t disadvantage his tactical speed style.
Sand Pipes (3) – 8-1 ML
Jockey: Samuel Marin Trainer: Lindsay Schultz
Sand Pipes represents the most intriguing value option as a horse clearly on the improve heading into his stakes debut. The four-year-old Summer Front colt brings two consecutive stalking victories at Monmouth Park, with his latest effort producing a career-best 88 Beyer Speed Figure in a dominant three-length score.
The partnership with jockey Samuel Marin has proven transformative for Sand Pipes, who had struggled with gate breaking and positioning early in his career. Marin’s aggressive tactics have kept the gelding closer to the pace, allowing his natural finishing ability to be more effective. The improvement is particularly notable as Sand Pipes had never crossed the wire first until his recent Monmouth victories.
Trainer Lindsay Schultz acknowledges this represents a significant class test but expresses confidence in the horse’s current form and readiness to compete at this level. Sand Pipes fits the classic profile of a “now horse” striking while the iron is hot.
Secondary Contenders
Light the Way (7) – 4-1 ML
The Linda Rice trainee brings tactical versatility but faces questions about his ability to compete with this quality field at the stakes level.
Otago (5) – 10-1 ML
The Speightstown horse offers longshot potential but lacks the consistent form indicators of the top choices.
Pace Analysis
The race sets up favorably for tactical runners with Big Everest likely to establish early command through comfortable fractions. Major Dude should settle in a stalking position just off the pace, while Sand Pipes has shown improved gate breaking under Marin that should allow him to maintain competitive positioning throughout.
The moderate pace scenario should benefit horses with proven finishing ability, giving both Major Dude and Sand Pipes realistic chances to mount sustained rallies in the stretch.
Wagering Strategy
Win: Major Dude offers the best combination of class and value at projected 5-2 odds based on his significant class advantage over this field.
Exacta: Key Major Dude on top with Big Everest and Sand Pipes underneath, or reverse the combination using Big Everest over Major Dude and Sand Pipes for broader coverage.
Trifecta: Use Major Dude and Big Everest in the top two spots with Sand Pipes, Light the Way, and Otago filling out the third position for attractive payouts.
Best Bet: Major Dude represents the strongest win probability based on class relief and proven stakes ability with elite connections.
Value Play: Sand Pipes at 8-1 morning line offers excellent overlay potential based on his improving form and partnership with Marin.
The Artie Schiller Stakes presents a quality betting race where class relief meets course specialization, making it an attractive spot for both conservative and value-oriented players.
Race 5 – Maiden Claiming ($20,000) (2:16 PM)
Key Contenders: Noguchi brings Linda Rice’s training expertise to this competitive maiden claiming event. Shadow Surge offers tactical speed under Manuel Franco that could prove decisive.
Secondary Choices: Seeker’s Hope and How About It provide solid form indicators, while Remember the Chief offers potential improvement dropping in class.
Pace Analysis: Multiple early speed types should create competitive positioning through the opening fractions, potentially favoring late-running types.
Wagering Angles: Noguchi provides win value at projected 6-5 odds with exacta combinations over speed horses offering attractive returns.
Race 6 – Allowance Optional Claiming (2:49 PM)
This competitive allowance optional claiming heat for New York-breds presents an intriguing betting race with multiple horses showing recent form improvements and tactical advantages.
Key Contenders
Aggregation (4) – 3-2 ML
Jockey: Manuel Franco Trainer: Chad C. Brown
Aggregation enters as the logical favorite based on his outstanding recent form and elite connections. The Chad Brown-trained six-year-old gelding brings a solid 29% win rate and 64% in-the-money percentage to this competitive field, demonstrating remarkable consistency throughout his career.
The son of Tapit has shown significant improvement in his recent starts, including a strong second-place finish in his last outing over this exact distance at Belmont at the Big A. His partnership with Manuel Franco, one of the nation’s leading jockeys with a 19% win rate, adds considerable confidence to his chances.
Brown’s tactical expertise with allowance horses makes Aggregation particularly dangerous in this spot. The trainer’s 18% win rate and 62% in-the-money percentage with similar horses provides strong statistical backing for this selection.
Palace Boss (1) – 2-1 ML
Jockey: Luis R. Rivera, Jr. Trainer: Horacio De Paz
Palace Boss brings early speed that could prove decisive in this competitive field. The four-year-old gelding shows a 17% career win rate with an impressive 67% in-the-money percentage, indicating consistent competitiveness at this level.
His recent form includes a second-place finish over this distance at Belmont at the Big A, demonstrating his affinity for the track and distance combination. The “fast leads” running style gives him tactical advantages if he can establish comfortable early fractions.
Rivera Jr.’s familiarity with the horse and track conditions provides additional confidence, though his 13% win rate suggests some challenges in converting opportunities.
Russian Realm (6) – 5-1 ML
Jockey: Katie Davis Trainer: Danny Gargan
Russian Realm represents the most intriguing value option in this competitive field. The four-year-old gelding brings a 20% career win rate with an exceptional 50% place percentage and 100% show percentage in recent starts, indicating remarkable consistency.
His “fastest closer” running style could prove particularly effective if the early pace develops as expected. The partnership with Katie Davis, who shows solid experience with similar horses, adds tactical advantages.
Trainer Danny Gargan’s 29% win rate and 57% in-the-money percentage with allowance horses provides strong statistical backing for this selection at attractive odds.
Refuah (2) – 10-1 ML
Jockey: Dylan Davis Trainer: Joe Sharp
Refuah offers excellent longshot potential based on his recent winning form. The six-year-old gelding captured his last start over this exact distance, demonstrating his current sharpness and readiness.
Sharp’s 27% win rate with similar horses provides confidence despite the horse’s modest 14% career win percentage. The “mid-pack stalker” running style allows tactical flexibility throughout the race.
Davis’s 19% win rate and strong familiarity with the horse adds appeal at generous morning line odds.
Secondary Contenders
Land d’Oro (7) – 7-2 ML
The four-year-old brings Ricardo Santana Jr.’s expertise and solid recent form, though faces stiff competition from the top choices.
Shipsational (3) – 7-1 ML
Shows tactical speed but lacks recent winning form, making him a risky proposition despite Eric Cancel’s capable riding.
Pace Analysis
The race sets up favorably for closers with Palace Boss and Aggregation likely to establish early command through moderate fractions. Russian Realm’s closing ability could prove decisive if the pace develops as expected, while Refuah’s stalking tactics allow positioning flexibility throughout.
The one-mile distance should benefit horses with proven stamina, giving both Aggregation and Russian Realm realistic chances to mount sustained rallies in the stretch.
Wagering Strategy
Win: Aggregation offers the best combination of class and consistency at projected 3-2 odds based on his elite connections and recent form.
Value Play: Russian Realm at 5-1 morning line represents outstanding overlay potential based on his recent consistency and closing ability.
Exacta: Key Aggregation on top with Russian Realm, Palace Boss, and Refuah underneath for solid coverage.
Trifecta: Use Aggregation and Russian Realm in the top two positions with Palace Boss, Refuah, and Land d’Oro filling the third spot.
Superfecta: The expert analysis suggests a 6-4-3-7 combination (Russian Realm-Aggregation-Shipsational-Land d’Oro) for maximum profit potential.
Best Bet: Aggregation represents the strongest win probability with elite trainer Chad Brown and proven form at this level.
Longshot Special: Refuah at 10-1 offers exceptional value based on his recent winning form and trainer Joe Sharp’s strong statistics.
This allowance optional claiming race presents a quality betting opportunity where class and current form align favorably, making it an attractive spot for both conservative and value-seeking players.
Race 7 – Allowance Optional Claiming Turf (3:21 PM)
This competitive allowance optional claiming heat for New York-bred horses presents an intriguing betting proposition with a mix of proven stakes performers, improving allowance horses, and tactical runners over the demanding 1 1/16-mile turf distance.
Key Contenders
Sounds Like a Plan (2) – 7/2 ML
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. Trainer: Horacio De Paz
Sounds Like a Plan enters as the logical favorite having captured his last start over this exact course and distance in impressive fashion. The three-year-old son of Twirling Candy brings a solid 25% win rate with an exceptional 62% in-the-money percentage, demonstrating remarkable consistency at this level.
His recent victory demonstrates current sharpness and familiarity with the Belmont at the Big A turf course, providing significant tactical advantages. The partnership with Ricardo Santana Jr. adds considerable confidence, as the Hall of Fame jockey excels with tactical runners who can adapt to race flow.
The “mid-pack leader” running style allows tactical flexibility throughout the race, enabling him to control positioning based on early pace development. This represents a logical spot to repeat his last victory against similar company.
Leon Blue (8) – 6-1 ML
Jockey: Christopher Elliott Trainer: Melanie Giddings
Leon Blue brings the highest class credentials in this field as a recent stakes winner who captured the prestigious $150,000 Rick Violette Stakes at Saratoga in July. The three-year-old son of Mo Town has proven his ability against quality competition with a 2-3-1 record from six career starts.
His Rick Violette victory demonstrated exceptional determination, as he fought off multiple challenges in the stretch to win by a neck over favored Smooth Breeze. The partnership with Christopher Elliott proved successful in that stakes triumph, and their reunion provides tactical confidence.
Trainer Melanie Giddings has shown patience in developing this horse, allowing him to mature naturally before stepping up in class. His “mid-pack closer” style could prove particularly effective if the expected pace develops favorably.
Dear Chairman (6) – 6-1 ML
Jockey: Junior Alvarado Trainer: Miguel Clement
Dear Chairman represents excellent value based on Miguel Clement’s outstanding recent form and tactical expertise with turf runners. The three-year-old Maclean’s Music colt brings solid form indicators with a 21% win rate and impressive 65% show percentage.
Clement’s stable is currently “in great form” according to recent reports, making all his runners dangerous at attractive odds. The trainer’s success with turf horses at Saratoga and other major tracks provides confidence in this spot.
The partnership with Junior Alvarado adds tactical advantages, as both trainer and jockey excel with horses who can make sustained rallies in the stretch. This represents a logical stepping stone for a horse with clear improvement potential.
The Paddock Pastor (1) – 8/1 ML
Jockey: John R. Velazquez Trainer: Amelia J. Green
The Paddock Pastor offers longshot potential based on his extensive experience with 20 career starts and solid 20% win rate. The four-year-old Get Stormy gelding brings tactical versatility as a “mid-pack closer” who has shown ability to fire at longer odds.
Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez provides significant upgrading despite the horse’s modest recent form. Velazquez’s tactical expertise with turf routers makes this combination dangerous at attractive odds.
Secondary Contenders
Miztertonic (4) – 6/1 ML
The six-year-old Mission Impazible gelding brings Manuel Franco’s riding expertise and solid career statistics with a 12% win rate and 41% in-the-money percentage.
Saratoga Flash (9) – 10/1 ML
Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. brings proven success with turf horses, though this seven-year-old faces stiff competition from the class droppers.
Cable Ready (3) – 8/1 ML
Shows consistent form as a “stalker” but needs significant improvement to compete with this quality field.
Pace Analysis
The race should develop favorably for closers with Sounds Like a Plan likely to establish tactical positioning through moderate early fractions. Leon Blue’s proven closing ability could prove decisive if positioned properly entering the stretch, while Dear Chairman’s tactical speed allows for flexible positioning throughout.
The 1 1/16-mile distance favors horses with proven stamina, giving both Leon Blue and Dear Chairman realistic chances to mount sustained rallies.
Wagering Strategy
Win: Sounds Like a Plan offers the best combination of current form and course familiarity at reasonable 7/2 odds.
Value Play: Dear Chairman at 6-1 represents outstanding overlay potential based on Miguel Clement’s hot stable and the horse’s improvement indicators.
Stakes Angle: Leon Blue at 6-1 provides excellent value based on his class advantage as a recent Grade stakes winner dropping to allowance company.
Exacta: Key Sounds Like a Plan on top with Dear Chairman, Leon Blue, and The Paddock Pastor for solid coverage.
Trifecta: Use the top three choices in multiple combinations, with The Paddock Pastor and Miztertonic as potential third-place finishers.
Best Bet: Sounds Like a Plan represents the strongest win probability based on his course-and-distance victory last time out.
Longshot Special: The Paddock Pastor at 8-1 offers exceptional value with Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez providing significant tactical upgrading.
This allowance optional claiming race presents a quality betting opportunity where recent form meets class relief, creating multiple attractive wagering angles for both conservative and value-seeking players.
Race 8 – Claiming ($12,500) (3:53 PM)
Key Contenders: Laughing Boy offers value potential in this competitive claiming heat. He’s Got This brings tactical speed under Manuel Franco that could prove decisive.
Secondary Choices: Beachwalker and Goodluckchuck provide solid form indicators, while Prince of Joy offers potential despite high weight assignment.
Pace Analysis: Multiple speed types should create honest early fractions, potentially favoring tactical runners with proven finishing ability.
Wagering Angles: Laughing Boy offers excellent value at projected 6-1 odds, with exacta combinations providing attractive payout opportunities.
Race 9 – Allowance (4:24 PM)
This competitive allowance heat represents one of the stronger betting races on the card, featuring improving three-year-olds against seasoned older horses in a race restricted to horses that have never won $20,000 other than in maiden, claiming, starter, or state-bred allowance company.
Key Contenders
Burning Glory (8) – 2-1 ML
Jockey: Junior Alvarado Trainer: William I. Mott
Burning Glory enters as the logical favorite based on his steady progression and elite connections. The three-year-old son of Into Mischief for Juddmonte has improved with every career start, culminating in a narrow but decisive maiden victory at Churchill Downs over one mile.
The Hall of Fame trainer William Mott’s patient development approach has paid dividends, as Burning Glory has shown dramatic improvement in each of his three career starts. His maiden victory came after two promising learning experiences, where he inhaled the field with a powerful move from the quarter pole to the eighth pole before drawing away under a hand ride.
The Juddmonte homebred possesses the pedigree to handle longer distances and racing beyond one turn, making this spot ideal for continued progression. Junior Alvarado’s partnership adds tactical confidence, particularly given Mott’s success with developing young horses.
Tuscan Gold (3) – 3-1 ML
Jockey: Manuel Franco Trainer: Chad C. Brown
Tuscan Gold brings the highest class credentials in this field with Chad Brown’s exceptional record with allowance horses. The four-year-old colt shows a respectable form line of “134-432” indicating consistent competitiveness at this level.
Brown’s 18% win rate with allowance horses provides strong statistical backing, while the partnership with Manuel Franco, who maintains a 19% win rate, adds considerable tactical advantages. The combination represents proven success in similar company.
The horse’s Official Rating of 99 suggests he brings solid class to this competitive heat, though he faces stiff competition from the improving younger horses.
V Cruizer (7) – 10-1 ML
Jockey: John R. Velazquez Trainer: Linda Rice
V Cruizer represents exceptional value as the expert selection from Sports Talk Florida, who notes this is his “second time routing, and improvement is expected”. The three-year-old colt brings Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez aboard for trainer Linda Rice, a combination that merits serious consideration at generous odds.
Velazquez’s return to consistent East Coast riding adds significant appeal, as the legendary jockey’s tactical expertise with developing horses provides substantial upgrading. His recent form shows multiple graded stakes mounts, indicating continued confidence from top connections.
The “second time routing” angle suggests natural progression for a horse who should benefit from additional distance and experience.
Buttah (6) – 6-1 ML
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. Trainer: Gary Sciacca
Buttah offers solid value potential with Ricardo Santana Jr.’s expertise and proven form indicators. The three-year-old New York-bred brings competitive statistics and tactical speed that could prove effective in this field.
Santana Jr.’s Hall of Fame caliber riding provides significant advantages, particularly with tactical runners who can adapt positioning based on pace flow. The partnership suggests stable confidence in this spot.
Brazenly (9) – 9/2 ML
Jockey: Dylan Davis Trainer: William Walden
Brazenly draws strong support from PokerStars analysis, which states “BRAZENLY must have a good chance based on form ratings and looks the one to have most faith in”. The seven-year-old gelding brings extensive experience with a solid foundation for this competitive heat.
Dylan Davis’s consistent New York riding provides tactical familiarity with track conditions and competition. The veteran gelding’s experience could prove valuable in a competitive field.
Secondary Contenders
Get a Job (1) – 12-1 ML
Recently claimed by Jorge R. Abreu for $45,000 on September 12, 2025, suggesting connections see improvement potential. Trainer Abreu maintains a respectable 13% win rate in 2025.
Waitlist (2) – 12-1 ML
Linda Rice trainee brings solid experience but faces stiff competition from higher-rated rivals.
Pace Analysis
The race sets up favorably for tactical runners with multiple speed types likely to establish honest early fractions. Burning Glory’s proven rallying ability should benefit from the expected pace, while V Cruizer’s routing experience could prove decisive if positioned properly entering the stretch.
The one-mile distance favors horses with proven stamina, giving both Burning Glory and Tuscan Gold realistic chances based on their breeding and recent form indicators.
Wagering Strategy
Win: Burning Glory offers the best combination of class and improvement trajectory at reasonable 2-1 odds with elite Hall of Fame connections.
Value Play: V Cruizer at 10-1 represents outstanding overlay potential based on expert handicapping analysis and Hall of Fame jockey upgrading.
Class Angle: Tuscan Gold at 3-1 provides solid secondary choice based on Chad Brown’s exceptional success with allowance horses.
Exacta: Key Burning Glory on top with V Cruizer, Tuscan Gold, and Brazenly for comprehensive coverage.
Trifecta: Use Burning Glory and Tuscan Gold in the top two spots with V Cruizer, Buttah, and Brazenly completing the combination.
Best Bet: Burning Glory represents the strongest win probability based on steady progression and elite Mott/Alvarado connections.
Longshot Special: V Cruizer at 10-1 offers exceptional value as the expert selection with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez providing significant tactical upgrading.
This allowance race presents a quality betting opportunity where improvement meets experience, creating attractive wagering angles for both conservative and value-seeking players.
Race 10 – Glen Cove Stakes (4:53 PM)
The Glen Cove Stakes presents one of the most competitive betting races on the card, featuring a stellar field of three-year-old fillies with multiple graded stakes winners and proven turf performers in this prestigious Grade 3 sprint.
Key Contenders
Love Cervere (2) – 5/2 ML
Jockey: Manuel Franco Trainer: Miguel Clement
Love Cervere enters as the morning line favorite based on her consistent stakes success and Miguel Clement’s red-hot stable form. The Into Mischief filly has captured two stakes victories in 2025, including the Take the A Train Stakes at Belmont at the Big A in May and the Listed Alywow Stakes at Woodbine in June, where she earned a career-best 88 Beyer Speed Figure.
Clement’s stable is currently experiencing exceptional form, having captured a stakes double on October 3rd with victories in both the Grade 2 Pilgrim and Grade 3 Futurity. The trainer’s tactical expertise with turf runners provides significant confidence in this competitive heat.
However, Love Cervere faces questions after her disappointing third-place finish in the Galway Stakes at Saratoga, where she was favored at 2-1 but failed to catch longshot winner Pop Idol. The rematch with Pop Idol adds intrigue to this competitive affair.
Pop Idol (5) – 4/1 ML
Jockey: John R. Velazquez Trainer: George Weaver
Pop Idol brings the most compelling recent form having shocked the racing world with a 17-1 upset victory in the Listed Galway Stakes at Saratoga on August 6th. The Maclean’s Music filly demonstrated remarkable tactical speed, leading gate-to-wire while defeating favored Love Cervere by one length.
Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez’s partnership proved instrumental in that Galway victory, as he allowed Pop Idol to establish comfortable early fractions before responding to late pressure. The combination returns with proven success over similar company.
Expert handicapper from Sports Talk Florida makes Pop Idol their top selection, noting to “toss the last outing up north” and focus on her impressive Galway stakes victory. This represents an ideal spot for Pop Idol to build on that breakthrough performance.
Italian Soiree (1) – 15/1 ML
Jockey: Samuel Marin Trainer: John P. Terranova II
Italian Soiree offers exceptional longshot value based on her stunning Grade 3 Coronation Cup victory at Saratoga in July. The Uncle Mo filly shocked at 14-1 odds, surging up the inside to win by a length in impressive fashion.
That Coronation Cup triumph demonstrated her affinity for turf sprinting, as trainer Tonja Terranova noted they had been waiting to try her at this shortened distance based on her dam’s successful turf sprinting career. The victory earned her a $31.20 win payout and proved her capability against Grade 3 competition.
However, Italian Soiree faces consistency concerns after finishing 11th in a Kentucky Downs allowance following her Coronation Cup triumph. The return to graded stakes company could spark improvement for this talented but unpredictable filly.
Abientot (9) – 5/1 ML
Jockey: Dylan Davis Trainer: Mark E. Casse
Abientot brings strong recent form having finished a close second in the Galway Stakes behind Pop Idol at Saratoga. The Mark Casse trainee showed significant late kick, surging from last place to nearly catch the winner in the final strides.
That Galway effort demonstrated her proven stakes ability and tactical versatility as a closer. Dylan Davis retains the mount after their successful partnership in that Grade stakes placing.
Casse’s Hall of Fame training expertise and 13% win rate in 2025 provide statistical confidence despite modest recent statistics. The step up in distance to six furlongs could favor her closing style.
Secondary Contenders
Flat Out Time (3) – 10/1 ML
Trainer George Weaver brings this filly off a Grade 3 third-place finish on dirt at Saratoga. Making her turf debut but has been working exceptionally well on grass according to expert analysis. Her breeding suggests turf suitability as she’s out of Grade 3 Iowa Oaks winner Flat Out Speed.
Me Governor (4) – 6/1 ML
The Carlos David trainee shows solid recent form with a victory over Blossoming Erudite in November 2024. Brings Ricardo Santana Jr.’s Hall of Fame expertise and could provide value in this competitive field.
Pace Analysis
The race should develop favorably for tactical runners with Pop Idol likely to establish early command based on her gate-to-wire Galway victory. Love Cervere’s proven tactical speed allows flexible positioning, while Abientot’s closing ability could prove decisive if positioned properly entering the stretch.
The six-furlong distance favors horses with proven sprint speed, giving both Pop Idol and Love Cervere realistic chances based on their recent stakes form.
Wagering Strategy
Win: Pop Idol offers the best combination of recent form and value at 4-1 odds based on her impressive Galway stakes victory over this exact company.
Class Angle: Love Cervere at 5/2 provides solid win probability based on multiple stakes victories and Miguel Clement’s hot stable.
Longshot Special: Italian Soiree at 15-1 represents outstanding overlay potential as a proven Grade 3 winner at generous odds.
Exacta: Key Pop Idol on top with Love Cervere and Abientot for comprehensive coverage of the Galway rematch.
Trifecta: Use Pop Idol and Love Cervere in the top two positions with Italian Soiree, Abientot, and Me Governor completing the combination.
Best Bet: Pop Idol represents the strongest combination of recent form and value as the expert selection with proven success over this company.
Value Play: Italian Soiree at 15-1 offers exceptional profit potential as a proven Grade 3 winner who could return to her Coronation Cup form.
The Glen Cove Stakes presents a premium Grade 3 betting opportunity where recent stakes form meets tactical advantages, creating multiple attractive wagering angles for both conservative and value-seeking players.
Race 11 – Allowance Turf (5:22 PM)
This competitive 14-horse allowance finale for New York-breds presents one of the most challenging betting races on the card, featuring multiple horses with recent form improvements and connections indicating strong confidence.
Key Contenders
El de Larry (5) – 5/2 ML
Jockey: Dylan Davis Trainer: W. Robert Bailes
El de Larry enters as the morning line favorite based on his consistent recent form and proven ability at this level. The four-year-old Paynter gelding has captured three victories in 2025, including a dominant score at Laurel Park on May 25th where he won by multiple lengths.
Trainer Robert Bailes maintains solid statistics with a 16.33% win rate in claiming/allowance company and shows particular strength with geldings in this class range. The partnership with Dylan Davis provides tactical familiarity, as they’ve combined for multiple victories this season.
However, El de Larry faces questions about surface switching from dirt to turf, as most of his recent success has come over conventional surfaces. The step up to this class level represents his biggest test to date.
Coach Case (10) – 5/1 ML
Jockey: Junior Alvarado Trainer: Miguel Clement
Coach Case offers exceptional value as a representative of Miguel Clement’s red-hot stable. The three-year-old colt holds special significance as Clement’s first winner after taking over the family stable following his father’s death earlier this year.
Clement’s stable is experiencing remarkable success, having captured a stakes double at Belmont at the Big A on October 3rd with victories in both the Grade 2 Pilgrim and Grade 3 Futurity. This hot stable form provides significant confidence in all Clement runners.
The emotional connection between trainer and horse adds another dimension, as Coach Case represents the continuation of the Clement family legacy. At 5-1 odds, he represents outstanding overlay potential for a trainer operating at peak form.
Mo Kreesa (1) – 6/1 ML
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. Trainer: Mark A. Hennig
Mo Kreesa brings proven turf experience with a solid foundation of five turf starts and one victory on the surface. The three-year-old gelding shows consistent form indicators with recent competitive efforts at this level.
Hall of Fame trainer Mark Hennig’s expertise provides confidence despite modest recent statistics. The partnership with Ricardo Santana Jr., who excels with tactical turf runners, adds significant tactical advantages.
The 118-pound assignment reflects recent non-winners allowance status, providing a slight weight advantage in this competitive field.
Zapruder (3) – 8/1 ML
Jockey: John R. Velazquez Trainer: Todd A. Pletcher
Zapruder represents exceptional value at 8-1 odds with the elite combination of Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez. The five-year-old gelding brings an Official Rating of 95, suggesting competitive ability in this field.
Pletcher’s 26% win rate with turf allowance horses provides strong statistical backing, while Velazquez’s tactical expertise with route runners adds considerable confidence. The form line of “1143-56” indicates recent competitive efforts with improvement potential.
This represents the type of overlay opportunity that expert handicappers seek with proven connections at generous odds.
Spirit of the Law (2) – 15/1 ML
Jockey: Javier Castellano Trainer: Michael J. Maker
Spirit of the Law offers outstanding longshot value based on trainer Mike Maker’s exceptional record with newly claimed horses. Expert analysis notes this barn “does well with new acquisitions” and expects him to be “rolling late”.
Maker’s claiming/turf expertise provides significant confidence despite the horse’s modest recent form line. The trainer specializes in developing turf marathoners and has proven adept at improving horses after claiming them.
The partnership with Javier Castellano adds tactical upgrading for a horse who should benefit from patient handling in this large field.
Secondary Contenders
Annexperience (7) – 7/2 ML
Manuel Franco’s mount brings solid form credentials but faces stiff competition from the improving types.
Terminal Velocity (4) – 6/1 ML
Shows a promising form line of “412” with potential for continued improvement.
Senegal (14) – 3/1 ML
The third morning line choice brings experience but faces questions about form consistency.
Pace Analysis
The large 14-horse field should produce competitive early positioning with multiple tactical types likely to establish moderate fractions. Spirit of the Law’s closing style could prove particularly effective if positioned properly, while Coach Case’s tactical speed allows flexibility throughout.
The one-mile turf distance favors horses with proven stamina and tactical versatility, giving both Zapruder and Spirit of the Law realistic chances based on their running styles.
Wagering Strategy
Win: Coach Case offers the best combination of value and stable form at 5-1 odds with Miguel Clement’s hot stable providing significant confidence.
Class Play: El de Larry at 5/2 provides solid win probability as the morning line favorite with recent winning form.
Value Angle: Zapruder at 8-1 represents exceptional overlay potential with elite Pletcher/Velazquez connections.
Longshot Special: Spirit of the Law at 15-1 offers outstanding profit potential based on Mike Maker’s proven success with newly claimed turf horses.
Exacta: Key Coach Case on top with El de Larry and Zapruder for comprehensive coverage.
Trifecta: Use Coach Case and Zapruder in the top two positions with Spirit of the Law, Mo Kreesa, and Terminal Velocity completing the combination.
Pick 4 Closer: The large field creates attractive pick 4 opportunities using multiple horses including Coach Case, Zapruder, and Spirit of the Law.
Best Bet: Coach Case represents the strongest combination of value and current stable form with Miguel Clement’s exceptional recent success.
This allowance finale presents a premium betting opportunity where hot stable form meets value pricing, creating multiple attractive wagering angles for both conservative and aggressive players.
Jockey Analysis
Manuel Franco continues his outstanding form with multiple strong mounts including Pride of the Union (Race 1), True Legend (Race 3), and Aggregation (Race 6). Franco’s tactical expertise and strong recent statistics make him a key factor in several competitive races.
Ricardo Santana Jr. brings Hall of Fame caliber riding to multiple mounts including Top Player (Race 1), Major Dude (Race 4), and Me Governor (Race 10). Santana’s ability to judge pace and position horses effectively provides significant advantages.
John Velazquez offers legendary expertise with quality mounts including Major Dude (Race 4) and Pop Idol (Race 10). Velazquez’s stakes race experience provides crucial advantages in the day’s featured events.
Christopher Elliott brings consistent tactical riding to multiple competitive mounts throughout the card. Elliott’s ability to adapt tactics based on race flow makes him valuable in several key spots.
Trainer Insights
Chad Brown sends out multiple strong contenders including Aggregation (Race 6) and Tuscan Gold (Race 9). Brown’s consistent success with tactical runners makes his horses worth strong consideration.
George Weaver operates multiple competitive runners including Top Player (Race 1) and True Legend (Race 3). Weaver’s success with younger horses provides advantages in several maiden and allowance events.
Todd Pletcher sends out Grade 3 favorite Major Dude (Race 4) with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez. Pletcher’s stakes race expertise provides significant confidence in this competitive heat.
Linda Rice operates multiple value contenders throughout the card. Rice’s consistent success with allowance and claiming horses makes her runners worth consideration at attractive odds.
Wagering Strategy and Value Plays
Best Single: Major Dude (Race 4) offers win security in the Artie Schiller Stakes with elite connections and proven stakes ability.
Best Value: Me Governor (Race 10) provides excellent odds in the Glen Cove Stakes with solid recent form and tactical advantages.
Pick 4 Strategy: Races 8-11 offer attractive combinations using multiple horses in each leg, particularly focusing on value options in the claiming and allowance events.
Daily Double: Connecting Tuscan Gold (Race 9) with multiple horses in Race 10 provides attractive payout potential with reasonable coverage.
Exacta Focus: Several races offer strong exacta opportunities, particularly Race 1 with Pride of the Union over multiple secondary choices, and Race 8 with Laughing Boy providing value over favored runners.
