Posted inAnalysis Picks

Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Delaware Park, July 11, 2026

No CommentsPosted inAnalysis, Picks


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

Pick Pony's AI picks work best when used with our Past Performance reports to enhance your handicapping and are especially effective for identifying potential longshot selections. You can purchase custom Past Performance reports through one of our subscription options. Learn more about Pick Pony's Past Performance reports here. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

Algo Picks – Algo 1
 
Race 1
Win:5 – Kitty's Son (9/5)
Place:3 – Half A League (5/2)
Show:7 – Migratory (9/2)
Other contenders:2 – Pencil Me In (6/1), 1 – Palace Revolt (10/1)
Rest of field:6 – Hephepcutdownnets (8/1), 4 – Party On Rufus (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-2-3-7-6-4
🎯 Longshots: 5-3-6-7-4-1-2
 
Race 2
Win:2 – Good News Rocket (9/2)
Place:3 – Sharon's Prince (2/1)
Show:1 – Federal Exchange (8/5)
Other contenders:4 – Battle Warrior (7/2), 5 – Twelve Nelson (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-3-1-4-5
🎯 Longshots: 1-3-5-4-2
 
Race 3
Win:6 – Take A Hint (3/2)
Place:3 – Band Camp (5/2)
Show:2 – Bourbon Music (9/2)
Other contenders:1 – Great Quality (9/2), 5 – Heard On Thestreet (10/1)
Rest of field:4 – Mister Roscoe (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-6-3-4-5-1
🎯 Longshots: 6-3-5-4-2-1
 
Race 4
Win:1 – Immortallove (9/5)
Place:2 – Dewey Doit (5/2)
Show:3 – Foggy Note (6/1)
Other contenders:5 – Takemybourbonneat (6/1), 6 – Antonacci Girl (4/1)
Rest of field:4 – Kissedbyanangel (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-6-2-3-4-5
🎯 Longshots: 1-2-4-6-3-5
 
Race 5
Win:13 – Distinct (7/2)
Place:11 – Marcan Love (3/1)
Show:8 – Fridayswithmurray (9/2)
Other contenders:10 – Specialagentjonson (5/1), 3 – Honor Mags (6/1), 9 – Alrasikh (6/1), 12 – Sell It (8/1)
Rest of field:1 – Finn Mcsorley (10/1), 5 – Thick As Thieves (15/1), 6 – Toolpusher (20/1), 4 – Owhatanite (15/1), 2 – K Paz (15/1), 7 – Lil Sebastian (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-8-5-9-1-12
🎯 Longshots: 11-13-12-1-5-8-4-2-10-7-9-3-6
 
Race 6
Win:7 – Just Relax (8/5)
Place:3 – Plausible Denile (3/1)
Show:2 – Triple Pass (9/2)
Other contenders:5 – Cyberbeast (8/1), 6 – Pit Stop Man (8/1)
Rest of field:1 – World On Fire (6/1), 4 – Guaio (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7-3-2-6-5-1
🎯 Longshots: 7-3-5-6-4-2-1
 
Race 7
Win:5 – Precious Avary (4/1)
Place:7 – Gift Of Gab (5/2)
Show:2 – Mischief Maxey (3/1)
Other contenders:6 – Stop Watch (6/1), 3 – Warda (15/1), 4 – Allison Park (10/1)
Rest of field:1 – Pinotslilgirl (10/1), 8 – Mudslide (8/1), 9 – River Seine (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-6-5-7-4-3
🎯 Longshots: 7-2-4-1-9-8-5-3-6
 
Race 8
Win:7 – Crazy Miles (3/2)
Place:1 – Hugs For Aries (9/5)
Show:3 – Uncle Zeb (6/1)
Other contenders:6 – Mister Chill (12/1), 5 – Over Imagination (8/1)
Rest of field:2 – Break Of Dawn (8/1), 4 – Laughatyourenemies (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6-7-1-3-5-2
🎯 Longshots: 7-1-2-6-4-5-3
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
Algo Picks – Algo 2
 
Race 1
Win:5 – Kitty's Son (9/5)
Place:3 – Half A League (5/2)
Show:6 – Hephepcutdownnets (8/1)
Other contenders:4 – Party On Rufus (10/1), 2 – Pencil Me In (6/1)
Rest of field:1 – Palace Revolt (10/1), 7 – Migratory (9/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-2-3-6-4-7
🎯 Longshots: 5-3-6-7-4-1-2
 
Race 2
Win:2 – Good News Rocket (9/2)
Place:1 – Federal Exchange (8/5)
Show:3 – Sharon's Prince (2/1)
Other contenders:5 – Twelve Nelson (8/1), 4 – Battle Warrior (7/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-1-3-5-4
🎯 Longshots: 1-3-5-4-2
 
Race 3
Win:1 – Great Quality (9/2)
Place:5 – Heard On Thestreet (10/1)
Show:6 – Take A Hint (3/2)
Other contenders:2 – Bourbon Music (9/2), 3 – Band Camp (5/2)
Rest of field:4 – Mister Roscoe (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-1-4-5-6-3
🎯 Longshots: 6-3-5-4-2-1
 
Race 4
Win:2 – Dewey Doit (5/2)
Place:1 – Immortallove (9/5)
Show:5 – Takemybourbonneat (6/1)
Other contenders:4 – Kissedbyanangel (8/1), 3 – Foggy Note (6/1)
Rest of field:6 – Antonacci Girl (4/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-1-5-6-4-3
🎯 Longshots: 1-2-4-6-3-5
 
Race 5
Win:6 – Toolpusher (20/1)
Place:11 – Marcan Love (3/1)
Show:3 – Honor Mags (6/1)
Other contenders:1 – Finn Mcsorley (10/1), 5 – Thick As Thieves (15/1), 12 – Sell It (8/1), 8 – Fridayswithmurray (9/2)
Rest of field:13 – Distinct (7/2), 4 – Owhatanite (15/1), 2 – K Paz (15/1), 7 – Lil Sebastian (15/1), 9 – Alrasikh (6/1), 10 – Specialagentjonson (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-8-5-1-9-12
🎯 Longshots: 11-13-12-1-5-8-4-2-10-7-9-3-6
 
Race 6
Win:6 – Pit Stop Man (8/1)
Place:5 – Cyberbeast (8/1)
Show:7 – Just Relax (8/5)
Other contenders:3 – Plausible Denile (3/1), 2 – Triple Pass (9/2)
Rest of field:4 – Guaio (12/1), 1 – World On Fire (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6-5-7-3-2-1
🎯 Longshots: 7-3-5-6-4-2-1
 
Race 7
Win:2 – Mischief Maxey (3/1)
Place:1 – Pinotslilgirl (10/1)
Show:8 – Mudslide (8/1)
Other contenders:4 – Allison Park (10/1), 7 – Gift Of Gab (5/2), 6 – Stop Watch (6/1)
Rest of field:3 – Warda (15/1), 5 – Precious Avary (4/1), 9 – River Seine (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-6-4-3-7-5
🎯 Longshots: 7-2-4-1-9-8-5-3-6
 
Race 8
Win:1 – Hugs For Aries (9/5)
Place:7 – Crazy Miles (3/2)
Show:5 – Over Imagination (8/1)
Other contenders:3 – Uncle Zeb (6/1), 4 – Laughatyourenemies (12/1)
Rest of field:2 – Break Of Dawn (8/1), 6 – Mister Chill (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-6-7-5-3-4
🎯 Longshots: 7-1-2-6-4-5-3
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Algo Picks – Algo 3
 
Race 1
Win:5 – Kitty's Son (9/5)
Place:3 – Half A League (5/2)
Show:6 – Hephepcutdownnets (8/1)
Other contenders:4 – Party On Rufus (10/1), 2 – Pencil Me In (6/1)
Rest of field:1 – Palace Revolt (10/1), 7 – Migratory (9/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-2-3-6-4-7
🎯 Longshots: 5-3-6-7-4-1-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2
Win:2 – Good News Rocket (9/2)
Place:1 – Federal Exchange (8/5)
Show:5 – Twelve Nelson (8/1)
Other contenders:4 – Battle Warrior (7/2), 3 – Sharon's Prince (2/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-1-5-3-4
🎯 Longshots: 1-3-5-4-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3
Win:1 – Great Quality (9/2)
Place:5 – Heard On Thestreet (10/1)
Show:6 – Take A Hint (3/2)
Other contenders:2 – Bourbon Music (9/2), 3 – Band Camp (5/2)
Rest of field:4 – Mister Roscoe (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-4-5-6-3
🎯 Longshots: 6-3-5-4-2-1
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 4
Win:2 – Dewey Doit (5/2)
Place:1 – Immortallove (9/5)
Show:5 – Takemybourbonneat (6/1)
Other contenders:4 – Kissedbyanangel (8/1), 6 – Antonacci Girl (4/1)
Rest of field:3 – Foggy Note (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-1-5-6-4-3
🎯 Longshots: 1-2-4-6-3-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5
Win:6 – Toolpusher (20/1)
Place:11 – Marcan Love (3/1)
Show:1 – Finn Mcsorley (10/1)
Other contenders:3 – Honor Mags (6/1), 5 – Thick As Thieves (15/1), 8 – Fridayswithmurray (9/2), 4 – Owhatanite (15/1)
Rest of field:12 – Sell It (8/1), 13 – Distinct (7/2), 2 – K Paz (15/1), 7 – Lil Sebastian (15/1), 9 – Alrasikh (6/1), 10 – Specialagentjonson (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-8-5-1-9-12
🎯 Longshots: 11-13-12-1-5-8-4-2-10-7-9-3-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #11, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6
Win:6 – Pit Stop Man (8/1)
Place:5 – Cyberbeast (8/1)
Show:7 – Just Relax (8/5)
Other contenders:3 – Plausible Denile (3/1), 2 – Triple Pass (9/2)
Rest of field:1 – World On Fire (6/1), 4 – Guaio (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6-5-7-3-2-1
🎯 Longshots: 7-3-5-6-4-2-1
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7
Win:2 – Mischief Maxey (3/1)
Place:1 – Pinotslilgirl (10/1)
Show:8 – Mudslide (8/1)
Other contenders:4 – Allison Park (10/1), 6 – Stop Watch (6/1), 7 – Gift Of Gab (5/2)
Rest of field:3 – Warda (15/1), 5 – Precious Avary (4/1), 9 – River Seine (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-6-4-3-7-1
🎯 Longshots: 7-2-4-1-9-8-5-3-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #8, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8
Win:1 – Hugs For Aries (9/5)
Place:7 – Crazy Miles (3/2)
Show:5 – Over Imagination (8/1)
Other contenders:3 – Uncle Zeb (6/1), 4 – Laughatyourenemies (12/1)
Rest of field:2 – Break Of Dawn (8/1), 6 – Mister Chill (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-6-7-5-3-4
🎯 Longshots: 7-1-2-6-4-5-3
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 1, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 13, Mid Pace: 99, Late Pace: 48, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 1, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 37, Medications: 95, Weather: 16, Race Trouble: 82, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 1, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Kelly Edge Plays
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: multidim)    Morning-line reliability: +0.36 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.88 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)
RaceHorseMLP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $ bankroll
56 – Toolpusher20/146.2%+732.7%5.00%$5.00
73 – Warda15/126.5%+273.4%4.56%$4.56
55 – Thick As Thieves15/123.4%+230.6%3.84%$3.84
54 – Owhatanite15/123.2%+228.3%3.80%$3.80
57 – Lil Sebastian15/118.7%+168.0%2.80%$2.80
35 – Heard On Thestreet10/119.0%+91.4%2.29%$2.29
51 – Finn Mcsorley10/112.8%+34.7%0.87%$0.87
71 – Pinotslilgirl10/110.7%+15.1%0.38%$0.38
TOTAL across 8 plays:23.5%$23.53
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
Index - Horses Running In This Card
ALLISON PARKALRASIKHANTONACCI GIRLBAND CAMPBATTLE WARRIOR
BREAK OF DAWNCRAZY MILESCYBERBEASTDEWEY DOITDISTINCT
FINN MCSORLEYFOGGY NOTEFRIDAYSWITHMURRAYGIFT OF GABGOOD NEWS ROCKET
GUAIOHALF A LEAGUEHEARD ON THESTREETHEPHEPCUTDOWNNETSHONOR MAGS
IMMORTALLOVEJUST RELAXK PAZKISSEDBYANANGELKITTY'S SON
LIL SEBASTIANMARCAN LOVEMIGRATORYMISCHIEF MAXEYMISTER CHILL
MUDSLIDEOVER IMAGINATIONOWHATANITEPALACE REVOLTPARTY ON RUFUS
PINOTSLILGIRLPIT STOP MANPLAUSIBLE DENILEPRECIOUS AVARYRIVER SEINE
SHARON'S PRINCESPECIALAGENTJONSONSTOP WATCHTAKE A HINTTAKEMYBOURBONNEAT
TOOLPUSHERTRIPLE PASSTWELVE NELSONUNCLE ZEBWARDA

 


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback