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Assiniboia Downs – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the July 13, 2026 card

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Race Day Overview — Assiniboia Downs | Monday, July 13, 2026

Assiniboia Downs kicks off the week with a seven-race Monday card that carries two significant stakes engagements at the top of the program. The R.J. Speers Budweiser 50K in Race 3 and the Derby Trial 50K in Race 5 give this card genuine stakes flavor, attracting several of the barn's top conditioners and a handful of jockeys who will be fighting for stakes-quality book positioning heading into the heart of the summer season. The lower-level claiming races bookending the stakes provide plenty of opportunity for horseplayers to dig into value, particularly in full fields where pace scenarios can collapse morning-line favorites.

The card opens at 8:30 a.m. local time with a 1650-furlong maiden/claiming affair and progresses through the afternoon. Jerry Gourneau's operation dominates this card numerically, saddling horses in six of the seven races and running multiple entries in Races 2, 3, 5, and 7. Keplin Steve Jr. also surfaces prominently with runners in Races 3, 4, and 5. Jared Brown fields competitive horses in Races 3, 4, and 5, including what figures to be a serious Derby Trial contender. Horseplayers should monitor any late scratches and equipment changes, particularly in the two stakes races where barn decisions can shift the entire pace scenario.

Weather and Track Conditions

July in Winnipeg typically delivers warm, humid conditions with afternoon temperatures ranging from the low to mid-20s Celsius (upper 70s to low 80s Fahrenheit). The Assiniboia Downs main track is a one-mile oval with a tight configuration that places a premium on tactical speed and rail positioning. The surface is maintained as a standard dirt strip and plays to speed-favoring tendencies during the summer months when the ground is firm and fast.

Based on seasonal norms and the absence of significant rainfall systems in the Manitoba region leading into mid-July 2026, the main track is expected to be rated fast, with no moisture present to soften the strip. Hot and sunny conditions through the weekend prior suggest a hard, sealed surface that will favor early pace and front-runners, a characterization consistent with Assiniboia's historical summer bias. Any late-breaking showers or track maintenance decisions could alter the surface rating, and horseplayers should confirm the official track condition at the gate.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Assiniboia Downs is a compact one-mile oval with relatively tight turns, and the track has historically exhibited a pronounced speed-favoring bias during the summer months when the surface is sealed and fast. Horses that secure early position and get to the rail in the first turn have a demonstrable advantage, particularly in sprint distances at 1210 and 1320 furlongs where the run from the gate to the first turn is short.

Post position bias at Assiniboia in sprint races favors the inside posts modestly, as horses drawn in posts one through three have the shortest path to the first turn and can establish rail position without excessive early movement. However, in full fields with pace-heavy lineups, the inside can become a trap if traffic forms. At route distances of 1540 to 1760 furlongs, the inside posts are less critical, and pace-stalking tactics from mid-track positions have proven equally effective.

For the marathon distance at 1650 furlongs in Races 1 and 3, the rail post is traditionally favorable at Assiniboia provided the horse can establish position cleanly. At the one-turn sprint distance of 1210 furlongs in Race 2, the inside three posts hold a slight edge on a fast track. The two stakes races at 1760 furlongs will be run around two turns, giving closer-style horses a better opportunity than they would find in the sprints.

Today's fast, dry surface strongly favors horses with established early pace or the ability to press the early leader without being drawn into a speed duel. Pace-pressers who rate within a length or two of the lead at the half-mile marker have shown the highest win percentage at Assiniboia during comparable summer conditions.

RACE 1 — Post 8:30 — 1650f | D | C | Clm 7500b | BUN | Purse $10,000

This opening race is a six-horse $7,500 claiming event restricted to bunnies (maiden and/or non-winners of a race lifetime) going 1650 furlongs on the main track. The purse of $10,000 reflects the entry-level claiming nature of the event, and the field includes a pair of co-favorites at 2-1. The route distance over a fast surface will test stamina and pace management from horses that have not yet broken their maiden.

Race 1

Pace Analysis

With Moonman Rules (POST 1) and Mr. Splash (POST 6) sharing the 2-1 co-favoritism, the pace picture becomes critical. MOONMAN RULES breaks from the rail and, under the care of trainer Maria Stanford, figures to establish forward position from the inside. MR. SPLASH, trained by Mike Taphorn and piloted by Rachaad Knights, is positioned in the extreme outside post and will need to either break alertly to cross over or settle early and rally late. The six-horse field limits traffic concerns, but the presence of Pickin' Riffs (POST 4) at 4-1, who typically shows early foot in these longer sprint-distance maidens, creates a genuine pace question. If MOONMAN RULES and PICKIN' RIFFS engage early, the door opens for a late-running or pace-stalking type to sweep past a tiring field.

Key Contenders

Moonman Rules (POST 1), trained by Maria Stanford and piloted by Mathew Bennett, draws the coveted rail post at the route distance and gets a jockey who is active in the Assiniboia colony. The 2-1 morning line reflects public confidence in this runner's ability to translate training works into competitive performance. Rail position at 1650 furlongs on a sealed, fast track at Assiniboia is a significant asset, and Stanford's ability to condition her horses for route distances at this level has been a consistent positive at this meet.

Pickin' Riffs (POST 4), trained by Tiffany Husbands and ridden by S. Chickeness, is the 4-1 second choice and represents a legitimate threat. Post 4 in a six-horse field is a neutral draw, and Husbands has shown the ability to have her horses ready first out in maiden claiming events. If PICKIN' RIFFS can track the early pace of MOONMAN RULES without being drawn into a duel, this one could be dangerous late.

Secondary Choices

Mr. Splash (POST 6), trained by Mike Taphorn and piloted by Rachaad Knights, co-headlines the market at 2-1 from the outside post. Knights is one of the stronger riders in the current Assiniboia jockey colony, and Taphorn is a reliable trainer at this level. The concern is the extreme outside draw at 1650 furlongs, as MR. SPLASH will need to either use early energy to establish position or settle well off the pace and hope to close into a fast pace that opens up the final stretch. Against co-favoritism, the post position is a meaningful negative.

Twolefttoload (POST 5), trained by Michael Nault and ridden by Antonio Whitehall, opens at 8-1 and receives some consideration as a pace-stalker. Nault is a consistent trainer at the Assiniboia meet, and Whitehall is an experienced rider who knows how to position a horse at a route. At 8-1, there is value embedded in this runner if the early pace is contested.

Longshots

Diane's Wish (POST 2), trained by Carman Mustard and ridden by Shavon Townsend, opens at 20-1 and is likely facing a significant class or form challenge relative to the top choices. At this price in a six-horse field, there is limited overlay potential unless significant market movement occurs before post.

Little Eddie (POST 3), trained by Ryan Desjarlais and ridden by Sven Balroop, opens at 12-1. Desjarlais is a recognizable name in the Manitoba circuit and occasionally surfaces with a live longshot, but the 12-1 morning line suggests this runner has a legitimate upside ceiling that the market has correctly identified as modest. Balroop's experience in the colony gives this one some realistic chance of outrunning the odds.

Betting Strategy

The pace scenario favors a pace-presser or stalker in this six-horse field. Moonman Rules (POST 1) is the logical single given the rail draw and co-favorable morning line, but the price is thin. A win-place structure on Moonman Rules (POST 1) backed by exacta coverage involving Pickin' Riffs (POST 4) and Mr. Splash (POST 6) provides the best risk-reward framework. At 8-1, Twolefttoload (POST 5) is worth a small win play as a pace-price alternative.

Selections

Win: Moonman Rules (POST 1) Place: Pickin' Riffs (POST 4) Show: Mr. Splash (POST 6)

RACE 2 — Post 9:00 — 1210f | D | C | Clm 7500 | BUN | Purse $15,000

Race 2 is a six-horse $7,500 maiden/non-winner claiming sprint at 1210 furlongs. The purse steps up to $15,000 relative to Race 1, and the field is dominated numerically by Jerry Gourneau, who saddles three runners — Hay Scooby Doo (POST 1), Lexington River (POST 5), and Fleet Of Hoof (POST 6). The morning line installs Hay Scooby Doo (POST 1) and Fleet Of Hoof (POST 6) as co-2-1 favorites with Gourneau in a position to score regardless of which stable star fires.

Race 2

Pace Analysis

At 1210 furlongs on a fast, one-turn track at Assiniboia, early speed is paramount. Hay Scooby Doo (POST 1) draws the inside post with Neville Stephenson, and the Gourneau barn's tendency to send horses from the rail in sprint races makes this one a likely pace-setter or early presser. Fleet Of Hoof (POST 6), ridden by Damario Bynoe from the outside, gives the Gourneau stable a tactical alternative if the inside runner gets into pace trouble. The question becomes whether a non-Gourneau runner can challenge for the lead and disrupt the stable's preferred outcome. Rhodesia (POST 3) and Mr. Dazzle (POST 2) both figure to contest early fractions, which could set up a legitimate pace scenario that benefits a closer, should one exist in this field.

Key Contenders

Hay Scooby Doo (POST 1), trained by Jerry Gourneau and ridden by Neville Stephenson, is the rail post 2-1 co-favorite in a one-turn sprint. At Assiniboia, inside posts in short sprints provide a critical advantage in terms of ground-saving, and Stephenson is a veteran rider who manages the inside lane professionally. The Gourneau stable is firing on multiple cylinders this meet, and three-deep entries in a six-horse field gives the barn enormous tactical flexibility.

Fleet Of Hoof (POST 6), trained by Gourneau and ridden by Bynoe, represents the outside tactical alternative. Bynoe has been riding with confidence this meet, and at co-2-1, the market is treating both Gourneau runners as equally dangerous. FLEET OF HOOF from post 6 in a 1210-furlong sprint will need to break sharply to avoid being shuffled to the back, which makes FLEET OF HOOF slightly more pace-dependent than HAY SCOOBY DOO.

Secondary Choices

Rhodesia (POST 3), trained by Monique Goulet and ridden by Rachaad Knights, opens at 5-1 and represents the most logical non-Gourneau threat. Knights is riding with quality in the current meet, and Goulet's horses typically arrive fit. From post 3, RHODESIA can establish tracking position just outside the likely inside speed without excessive movement. At 5-1, this is the value play in the race.

Lexington River (POST 5), trained by Gourneau and ridden by R. Cumberbatch, gives the barn a third runner at 4-1. Cumberbatch is a capable jockey, and the Gourneau barn running three in a six-horse field creates the most competitive internal dynamic of any race on the card. LEXINGTON RIVER at 4-1 could be the value runner for the stable if the public money splits between the two co-favorites.

Longshots

Mr. Dazzle (POST 2), trained by Victoria Morse and ridden by Ciera Pruitt, opens at 6-1. Morse is not one of the high-volume Assiniboia stables, but 6-1 in a six-horse field against multiple Gourneau entries is workable if Pruitt can get MR. DAZZLE to the lead early and control the tempo.

Red Road Runner (POST 4), trained by Michael Nault and ridden by Antonio Whitehall, opens at 12-1 and is the clear longshot in this field. Against three Gourneau runners and a legitimate threat in RHODESIA, the 12-1 accurately reflects limited competitive outlook. Whitehall is a solid rider, but the barn stats for Nault in this type of race make RED ROAD RUNNER a throw in most scenarios.

Betting Strategy

The Gourneau stable's three-deep entry in a six-horse field is unusual and creates potential pool inefficiencies. Hay Scooby Doo (POST 1) and Fleet Of Hoof (POST 6) will share public money and may both be slightly overlaid relative to their individual win probability. Use Rhodesia (POST 3) as the primary non-Gourneau contender in exactas and trifectas. The best single play here is Hay Scooby Doo (POST 1) to win using the rail advantage, with an exacta keying POST 1 over POST 3 and POST 6 as the top cost-effective structure. Include Lexington River (POST 5) in trifecta bottoms for value.

Selections

Win: Hay Scooby Doo (POST 1) Place: Rhodesia (POST 3) Show: Fleet Of Hoof (POST 6)

RACE 3 — Post 9:25 — 1650f | D | N | RJSpeersB50k | BUN | Purse $50,000

The R.J. Speers Budweiser Stakes is the first of two $50,000 stakes races on the card, contested at 1650 furlongs on the main track for non-winners. A five-horse field congregates, with Judo (POST 1) and Bergheim (POST 4) sharing the 2-1 favoritism while Mr Jaws (POST 5) opens at 3-1. The Gourneau barn again surfaces with two entries — Bergheim (POST 4) and Mr Jaws (POST 5) — giving the stable familiar tactical flexibility in a route stakes scenario.

Race 3

Pace Analysis

Judo (POST 1), trained by Steve Keplin Jr. from the inside post, figures to be the primary pace-setter in this five-horse stakes field at 1650 furlongs. Keplin Jr. has a reputation for conditioning horses to rate well at route distances, and JUDO's 2-1 morning line from the rail suggests the horse is considered capable of dictating terms. Bergheim (POST 4), piloted by R. Cumberbatch for Gourneau, will need to decide whether to press or stalk depending on how JUDO breaks. Mr Jaws (POST 5), also from Gourneau and ridden by Dario Dalrymple, represents the alternative tactical weapon from the outside post. Dreaming Of Kona (POST 3), trained by Steven Gaskin and ridden by Prayven Badrie, adds a middle-post stalker with legitimate credentials at 4-1. The pace is likely to be moderate given the presence of JUDO on the front end and two Gourneau horses who may not want to burn early energy, which could set up a sustained drive to the wire.

Key Contenders

Judo (POST 1), trained by Steve Keplin Jr. and ridden by Sven Balroop, owns the rail post in a stakes route that plays directly to Assiniboia's speed-favoring summer bias. The 2-1 morning line reflects a high level of confidence from the morning-line maker, and Balroop's experience in route races at this track is a meaningful positive. Keplin Jr. has become one of the more respected conditioners at the Manitoba circuit, particularly in non-winner stakes events where fitness and tactical positioning often trump raw ability. If JUDO can set a comfortable pace from the rail and be saved for the stretch run by Balroop, this is the most difficult horse to beat.

Bergheim (POST 4), trained by Jerry Gourneau and ridden by R. Cumberbatch, shares the 2-1 morning line and provides the Gourneau stable with a mid-pack alternative. From post 4, BERGHEIM can range up on the outside of the leader or settle into a stalking position, giving Cumberbatch multiple options depending on the early pace scenario. Gourneau's ability to place horses in appropriate spots and have them peaking on race day is well-documented at this meet.

Secondary Choices

Mr Jaws (POST 5), trained by Gourneau and ridden by Dario Dalrymple, is the second Gourneau runner at 3-1. Given that Bergheim (POST 4) shares the favoritism, MR JAWS at 3-1 may represent the better value within the stable if the market splits public money toward BERGHEIM. Dalrymple is a competent jockey who can manage a route pace from the outside post.

Dreaming Of Kona (POST 3), trained by Steven Gaskin and ridden by Prayven Badrie, opens at 4-1 and is the logical non-Gourneau, non-Keplin contender. Gaskin has quietly put together a competent Assiniboia meet, and DREAMING OF KONA from the middle post with a pace-stalking style could find clear running in the stretch if the frontrunners engage each other early.

Longshots

Kauai Dan (POST 2), trained by Jared Brown and ridden by Damario Bynoe, opens at 8-1 as the lone 8-1 shot in the field. Brown is an experienced conditioner who has shown the ability to spot horses effectively at Assiniboia, and Bynoe has been riding with confidence. KAUAI DAN from post 2 is well positioned to stalk just off the pace set by Judo (POST 1) and could find a run in the stretch at a price that represents genuine overlay potential. The 8-1 opening line makes KAUAI DAN the most appealing exotic inclusion in this race.

Betting Strategy

The R.J. Speers is a legitimate betting race despite the relatively small field. The morning line has two co-favorites and a legitimate 3-1 contender from the same stable, which creates a situation where Kauai Dan (POST 2) at 8-1 is likely to be underlaid by post time if money flows naturally. Target Judo (POST 1) as the win single given the rail advantage and trainer/jockey combination. Build exactas using Judo (POST 1) on top with Kauai Dan (POST 2) and Dreaming Of Kona (POST 3) underneath. For trifectas, use a wide bottom including Bergheim (POST 4) and Mr Jaws (POST 5) to capture the Gourneau factor.

Selections

Win: Judo (POST 1) Place: Kauai Dan (POST 2) Show: Dreaming Of Kona (POST 3)

RACE 4 — Post 10:10 — 1320f | D | AO | OClm 22500b | BUN | Purse $21,000

Race 4 is a $22,500 optional claiming event restricted to older horses at 1320 furlongs. The purse at $21,000 is the highest claiming-level contest on the card, and the six-horse field includes a heavy 1-1 morning line favorite in Taillights (POST 6), trained by Steve Keplin Jr. and ridden by Damario Bynoe. This is one of the more lopsided morning lines on the card, and serious handicappers must determine whether TAILLIGHTS is a legitimate single or a fade candidate.

Race 4

Pace Analysis

At 1320 furlongs, pace is everything at Assiniboia. Lansdowne (POST 2), trained by Jared Brown and ridden by Antonio Whitehall at 2-1, is the likely early pace-setter from the inside-favored second post. Dominant Spirit (POST 4), trained by Gourneau and ridden by Neville Stephenson at 4-1, could also show early foot. Taillights (POST 6) is likely a closer or pace-presser who depends on a genuine early pace to set up the stretch run. If LANSDOWNE sets moderate fractions without being pressured, TAILLIGHTS may face a slower pace than preferred from the outside post. Uncharacteristic (POST 5), trained by Robert Vanoverschof and ridden by Jose Mariano Asencio at 4-1, adds another middle-of-the-track option with tactical versatility.

Key Contenders

Taillights (POST 6), trained by Steve Keplin Jr. and ridden by Damario Bynoe, is the 1-1 morning line favorite and the most heavily bet horse on the early portions of the card. Keplin Jr.'s barn is in top form this meet, with Judo (POST 1) in Race 3 also carrying strong morning-line backing. Bynoe has been riding with authority this summer, and TAILLIGHTS from the outside post at 1320 furlongs will need to break well and establish position before the first turn. At 1-1, the price requires near-certainty of winning to justify heavy wagering.

Lansdowne (POST 2), trained by Jared Brown and ridden by Antonio Whitehall, is the 2-1 second choice and a legitimate pace-controlling threat from the advantageous second post. Brown has been placing his horses accurately at the Assiniboia meet, and LANSDOWNE represents real competition for TAILLIGHTS if the early fractions are contested.

Secondary Choices

Dominant Spirit (POST 4), trained by Jerry Gourneau and ridden by Neville Stephenson, opens at 4-1 and is the Gourneau barn's primary hope in this field. Gourneau knows how to target optional claimers, and DOMINANT SPIRIT from the middle post has clean access to all tactical scenarios. Stephenson is a veteran at Assiniboia and rarely puts a horse in a bad position.

Uncharacteristic (POST 5), trained by Robert Vanoverschof and ridden by Jose Mariano Asencio at 4-1, shares the co-second choice price and offers a genuine alternative. Vanoverschof is a competent regional trainer, and UNCHARACTERISTIC positioned between the pace-setters and the favorite creates an interesting tactical option for Asencio.

Longshots

Falsely Accused (POST 3), trained by Jason Homer and ridden by Shavon Townsend, opens at 15-1. Homer is a modest-volume barn at Assiniboia, but Townsend is an experienced rider who can navigate traffic at 1320 furlongs. The 15-1 price reflects a likely form deficit relative to the top choices.

Soaringforthesun (POST 1), trained by Wendy Anderson and ridden by Kerron Khelawan, opens at 25-1 as the longest shot in the field. Anderson has competitive horses in other races on this card, but SOARINGFORTHESUN at 25-1 against a field that includes TAILLIGHTS at 1-1 is a clear throw for win wagering. In trifecta bottoms at a price, SOARINGFORTHESUN provides minor exotic value.

Betting Strategy

Taillights (POST 6) at 1-1 is difficult to play confidently for win bettors given the price compression and the outside post in a one-turn sprint. The best approach is to use Taillights (POST 6) and Lansdowne (POST 2) as a two-horse exacta box, with Dominant Spirit (POST 4) and Uncharacteristic (POST 5) filling out trifecta positions below. If a bettor is comfortable with the TAILLIGHTS narrative, an exacta wheel of Taillights (POST 6) on top with all others is cost-effective. The 4-1 co-prices on DOMINANT SPIRIT and UNCHARACTERISTIC represent far better value for win bettors willing to take a stand against the chalk.

Selections

Win: Taillights (POST 6) Place: Lansdowne (POST 2) Show: Dominant Spirit (POST 4)

RACE 5 — Post 10:35 — 1760f | D | N | DrbyTrial50k | BON | Purse $50,000

The Derby Trial Stakes is the featured event of the day, contested at 1760 furlongs — a genuine distance test for younger horses. The seven-horse field includes a heavy 1-1 morning line favorite in Prime Suspect (POST 1), trained by Steve Keplin Jr. and ridden by Sven Balroop. This is the most intriguing betting race on the card, with genuine stakes horses from multiple competitive barns and a price structure that offers real exotic value.

Race 5

Pace Analysis

Prime Suspect (POST 1) from the inside rail will almost certainly establish the lead in this Derby Trial, as the Keplin Jr. barn rarely allows their horses to be taken back in stakes company. Elston Gunnn (POST 7), trained by Eugene Burns and ridden by Shavon Townsend at 2-1, figures to be the pace-presser or the primary early rival from the outside post. Borderland (POST 2), the 30-1 morning line entrant from Gourneau, is likely a pace contributor or token entry that could be used to establish early tempo in service of a stable mate. Really Ralis (POST 3) and Truly Unbelievable (POST 6) project as mid-pack stalkers in a race that figures to be contested honestly at a true route distance of 1760 furlongs. Omaha Warrior (POST 5) and Complete Overhaul (POST 4) complete the mid-field contingent and will need the pace to collapse to threaten.

Key Contenders

Prime Suspect (POST 1), trained by Steve Keplin Jr. and ridden by Sven Balroop, enters as the 1-1 morning line chalk and the horse everyone else must beat. Keplin Jr. is arguably the top conditioner at the current Assiniboia meet based on win percentage and stakes performance, and PRIME SUSPECT from the rail at 1760 furlongs gives Balroop every tactical advantage in the book. At 1-1, the price is short, but the combination of trainer form, jockey form, and post position makes this runner a legitimate single in multi-race wagers. The Derby Trial at 1760 furlongs is a true test, and Keplin Jr.'s ability to condition horses for extended route distances has been demonstrated throughout this meet.

Elston Gunnn (POST 7), trained by Eugene Burns and ridden by Shavon Townsend, opens at 2-1 as the primary alternative to the chalk. Burns is a trainer who surfaces at Assiniboia with well-prepared horses, and Townsend from the outside seven-post will need to manage early pace carefully to avoid burning energy chasing PRIME SUSPECT to the turn. If ELSTON GUNNN can sit within two lengths of PRIME SUSPECT through the first turn without dueling, this runner has the stamina to be dangerous in the final quarter-mile of a 1760-furlong route.

Secondary Choices

Truly Unbelievable (POST 6), trained by Robertino Diodoro and ridden by Kimal Santo at 6-1, is the most intriguing secondary contender. Diodoro is one of the more accomplished trainers on the broader circuit who operates at Assiniboia, and his horses tend to be well-prepared for stakes engagements. At 6-1, TRULY UNBELIEVABLE represents the best overlay value in this race. Kimal Santo is a capable jockey, and from post 6, TRULY UNBELIEVABLE can settle into a stalking position and make a run around the far turn.

Really Ralis (POST 3), trained by Cindy Krasner and ridden by Kerron Khelawan at 8-1, opens at a price that offers legitimate value if the horse is closer-style in a race where the front end could get hot. Khelawan has shown solid form this meet, and Krasner's horses have been competitive at the Assiniboia stakes level.

Longshots

Complete Overhaul (POST 4), trained by Maria Stanford and ridden by Neville Stephenson at 10-1, is a horse from a barn that is active on this card. Stanford had the morning line favorite in Race 1, which suggests she has competitive horses at this meet, but COMPLETE OVERHAUL at 10-1 in stakes company against PRIME SUSPECT may be facing a significant class challenge.

Omaha Warrior (POST 5), trained by Jared Brown and ridden by Damario Bynoe at 25-1, opens at a price that indicates the morning line maker does not consider this runner a serious contender despite the quality of the Brown barn. Brown saddles Lansdowne (POST 2) in Race 4 as a serious contender, making the OMAHA WARRIOR price appear accurate.

Borderland (POST 2), trained by Gourneau and ridden by Antonio Whitehall at 30-1, is the longest price on the Derby Trial board. In a race where Gourneau runs a single entrant, the 30-1 suggests BORDERLAND is either a pace horse entered primarily to establish pace for potential future stable runners, or simply well outmatched by the chalk and the 2-1 second choice.

Betting Strategy

The Derby Trial is the most exotic-friendly race on the card. Prime Suspect (POST 1) at 1-1 is difficult to beat to win, but the exacta and trifecta payouts can be substantial if Elston Gunnn (POST 7) and Truly Unbelievable (POST 6) fill the underneath spots. The most cost-effective approach is a partial wheel: Prime Suspect (POST 1) on top in exactas with Elston Gunnn (POST 7), Truly Unbelievable (POST 6), and Really Ralis (POST 3) underneath. For trifectas, use Prime Suspect (POST 1) on top, Elston Gunnn (POST 7) and Truly Unbelievable (POST 6) in second, with Really Ralis (POST 3) and Complete Overhaul (POST 4) in third. If you are willing to use a trifecta that bends against the chalk, Elston Gunnn (POST 7) on top with Prime Suspect (POST 1) second and Truly Unbelievable (POST 6) or Really Ralis (POST 3) third could return significant value.

Selections

Win: Prime Suspect (POST 1) Place: Elston Gunnn (POST 7) Show: Truly Unbelievable (POST 6)

RACE 6 — Post 11:00 — 1760f | D | C | Clm 10000 | BUN | Purse $16,500

Race 6 is the largest field on the card, with nine horses going 1760 furlongs in a $10,000 claiming event. Nine horses at a route distance on a fast summer track creates a genuinely complex pace scenario, and the morning line has Cajun Eddie (POST 3) as the 2-1 favorite with The Ronald (POST 6) at 3-1 as the primary alternative.

Race 6

Pace Analysis

A nine-horse field going 1760 furlongs will produce a complex early pace picture. Cajun Eddie (POST 3), trained by Tom Gardipy Jr. and ridden by Ciera Pruitt, is the 2-1 favorite and likely the most versatile tactical runner in the field. The Ronald (POST 6), trained by Jason Homer and ridden by Neville Stephenson at 3-1, is likely a presser or stalker from the middle posts. Wicked Rose (POST 5), trained by Gourneau and ridden by S. Chickeness at 5-1, adds the Gourneau stable's tactical flexibility. In a nine-horse field at 1760 furlongs, early pace is likely to be contested by multiple horses, setting up a scenario where a closer or late-running type could sweep past a tiring pace in the final furlong.

Key Contenders

Cajun Eddie (POST 3), trained by Tom Gardipy Jr. and ridden by Ciera Pruitt, is the 2-1 morning line favorite. Gardipy Jr. is a competent Assiniboia conditioner who has been active this meet, and Pruitt has been riding with confidence. Post 3 in a nine-horse field at 1760 furlongs is a workable draw, giving CAJUN EDDIE access to tactical positions inside the mid-field. At 2-1 in a nine-horse claiming route, however, this price is thin and requires strong competitive form to justify.

The Ronald (POST 6), trained by Jason Homer and ridden by Neville Stephenson, opens at 3-1 and is the most logical single for bettors who want to take a stand against CAJUN EDDIE. Homer targets races effectively, and Stephenson from post 6 in a nine-horse route can find ideal stalking position without early traffic concerns. THE RONALD at 3-1 offers better value than the 2-1 favorite in a field this size.

Secondary Choices

Bossy Holiday (POST 2), trained by Lise Pruitt and ridden by Mathew Bennett, opens at 4-1. Pruitt conditions horses well for route distances, and Bennett is one of the more reliable riders in the Assiniboia colony. Post 2 in a nine-horse field at 1760 furlongs is a favorable draw, giving BOSSY HOLIDAY the opportunity to establish early rail position or track the leader through the far turn.

Wicked Rose (POST 5), trained by Gourneau and ridden by S. Chickeness at 5-1, provides the Gourneau barn's presence in this mid-level claiming route. The Gourneau operation has been firing regularly this meet, and WICKED ROSE at 5-1 from a clean mid-field post is a workable price for exotic wagering.

Longshots

Burn Jakey Burn (POST 1), trained by Wendy Anderson and ridden by Shavon Townsend, opens at 10-1 from the rail post. Anderson has live horses on this card — Soaringforthesun (POST 1) in Race 4 and Funkenstein (POST 4) in this race — but the rail post at 1760 furlongs is both advantageous and potentially trapping. In a nine-horse field with early pace scenarios that are uncertain, the inside post could become a rail trap if speed develops on the outside.

Funkenstein (POST 4), also trained by Anderson and ridden by R. Cumberbatch, opens at 15-1 and provides the Anderson barn with a secondary runner. The 15-1 suggests FUNKENSTEIN is less competitive than BURN JAKEY BURN within the stable.

Tiz Romantic (POST 9), trained by Tom Gardipy Jr. and ridden by Tyrone Nelson, opens at 12-1 and gives the Gardipy barn a second runner alongside Cajun Eddie (POST 3). Nelson is a reliable rider for a second string, and TIZ ROMANTIC from the extreme outside post at 1760 furlongs will require a wide trip. At 12-1 in exotic wagers, TIZ ROMANTIC is worth including in trifecta bottoms.

Green Amazon (POST 8), trained by Steven Gaskin and ridden by Kerron Khelawan at 30-1, is a significant longshot in a nine-horse field. Gaskin's Dreaming Of Kona (POST 3) in Race 3 receives stronger market confidence, and GREEN AMAZON at 30-1 is a throw for win purposes.

Buzzinga Karma (POST 7), trained by Jessica Bell and ridden by Antonio Whitehall at 40-1, is the longest shot on the entire card. At 40-1 in a nine-horse claiming event, BUZZINGA KARMA is a pass for all but the most speculative exotic ticket builders. The 40-1 price appropriately reflects the competitive gap between this runner and the field's top contenders.

Betting Strategy

In a nine-horse claiming route at 1760 furlongs, the pace complexity creates genuine overlay opportunities. The Ronald (POST 6) at 3-1 is the best value play in this race, offering a realistic win scenario at a price that is more generous than the 2-1 morning line favorite. Box Bossy Holiday (POST 2), Cajun Eddie (POST 3), and The Ronald (POST 6) in an exacta and use Wicked Rose (POST 5) in trifecta bottoms. The Gardipy stable running two horses — Cajun Eddie (POST 3) and Tiz Romantic (POST 9) — creates the possibility that barn money flows to the second string if CAJUN EDDIE draws heavy action.

Selections

Win: The Ronald (POST 6) Place: Cajun Eddie (POST 3) Show: Bossy Holiday (POST 2)

RACE 7 — Post 11:25 — 1540f | D | C | Clm 7500 | BUN | Purse $15,000

The closing race is a seven-horse $7,500 claiming event at 1540 furlongs. The morning line installs Hey Big Un (POST 1) as a heavy 1-1 favorite trained by Carl Anderson and ridden by Larry Munoz. Bati King (POST 2) is the 2-1 second choice, with the remainder of the field well back in the price structure. This is a bottom-of-the-card race that figures to generate significant action from bettors looking to cap the card.

Race 7

Pace Analysis

At 1540 furlongs, the pace scenario at Assiniboia involves a turn and a half, giving inside-post horses a meaningful ground-saving advantage. Hey Big Un (POST 1) from the rail with Larry Munoz figures to establish forward position immediately, and at 1-1, the morning line reflects the consensus that this runner is significantly better than its company. Bati King (POST 2), trained by Wendy Anderson and ridden by Tyrone Nelson, will press from the second post and create a genuine pace dynamic between the top two choices. Nautical Moon (POST 3), from the Gourneau stable and ridden by Whitehall, gives the Gourneau barn its final presence on the card. If HEY BIG UN and BATI KING hook up early, there is a scenario where a stalker from mid-field — specifically Ave's In Command (POST 5) — can close into a pace-collapsed stretch.

Key Contenders

Hey Big Un (POST 1), trained by Carl Anderson and ridden by Larry Munoz, is the 1-1 morning line favorite from the inside rail. Anderson has targeted this runner in a spot where the morning line maker considers the competitive advantage decisive, and Munoz is a capable jockey at Assiniboia. The rail post at 1540 furlongs is a significant asset on a fast track, and unless HEY BIG UN is dramatically short of fitness, this runner should be difficult to beat.

Bati King (POST 2), trained by Wendy Anderson — a different Anderson from Carl — and ridden by Tyrone Nelson at 2-1, provides the primary competitive alternative. Wendy Anderson had Burn Jakey Burn (POST 1) and Funkenstein (POST 4) in Race 6, suggesting she has a string of horses going today. BATI KING from post 2 can press HEY BIG UN and potentially take over if the favorite gets tired in the final furlong.

Secondary Choices

Ave's In Command (POST 5), trained by Robert Maybin and ridden by Christopher Roy Mamdeen at 5-1, is the most interesting mid-field option in the closing race. Maybin targets his horses accurately in claiming company, and Mamdeen is a jockey who can rate a horse through a pace and produce a late run. At 5-1 in a card-closing race where the public favors the chalk, AVE'S IN COMMAND provides genuine overlay potential if the front end collapses.

Nautical Moon (POST 3), trained by Gourneau and ridden by Whitehall at 15-1, is the Gourneau stable's final runner of the day. Gourneau has had multiple horses competitive throughout the card, and while 15-1 suggests NAUTICAL MOON is not the barn's top hope, the Gourneau operation can fire at any price.

Longshots

Mister K (POST 4), trained by Brett Desjarlais and ridden by Mathew Bennett, opens at 12-1. Desjarlais is a recognizable Manitoba name, and Bennett closes his riding card with this mount. The 12-1 price in a seven-horse closer suggests MISTER K is facing a significant competitive disadvantage but remains worth a trifecta inclusion.

Ghost Art (POST 6), trained by Jennifer Jordan and ridden by Sven Balroop at 20-1, and Ghost Cowboy (POST 7), trained by Gourneau and ridden by Bynoe at 20-1, are both significant longshots in this closing race. Balroop had solid stakes-race mounts earlier in the day, and the 20-1 on GHOST ART reflects the challenge this horse faces against the morning line favorite. GHOST COWBOY at 20-1 gives Gourneau a second runner in the race at a price that suggests this entry is a secondary threat at best.

Betting Strategy

Hey Big Un (POST 1) at 1-1 is a difficult stand-alone win play given the price, but in the closing race of the card, this runner may serve well as a top anchor in a late Pick 3 structure. Use Hey Big Un (POST 1) and Bati King (POST 2) as a two-horse exacta and box in a $2 exacta. Include Ave's In Command (POST 5) in all trifectas as the closer who could benefit from a front-end pace collapse. For bettors who want to take a stand against the chalk, Bati King (POST 2) at 2-1 is the most logical alternative, and at that price, the value is modest but better than the 1-1 chalker.

Selections

Win: Hey Big Un (POST 1) Place: Bati King (POST 2) Show: Ave's In Command (POST 5)

Jockey Notes and Insights

Rachaad Knights is the jockey to watch on this card based on quality of mounts and positioning. Knights rides Rhodesia (POST 3) in Race 2 and Mr. Splash (POST 6) in Race 1, giving him two mounts in claiming company that include a legitimate 5-1 contender. Knights has been among the stronger riders at the current Assiniboia meet based on win percentage relative to his book, and when placed on competitive horses by competent trainers, Knights consistently delivers professional rides.

Sven Balroop has the most enviable book of the afternoon, drawing two high-profile stakes mounts: Judo (POST 1) in the R.J. Speers and Prime Suspect (POST 1) in the Derby Trial. Both horses carry 2-1 and 1-1 morning lines respectively, meaning Balroop is paired with the morningline favorites in both $50,000 stakes events. If Balroop delivers on both occasions, it would be a career afternoon at Assiniboia for the jockey. Balroop also picks up Little Eddie (POST 3) in Race 1, rounding out a full card.

Damario Bynoe has a strong schedule with mounts in five races: Fleet Of Hoof (POST 6) in Race 2, Kauai Dan (POST 2) in Race 3, Taillights (POST 6) in Race 4, Omaha Warrior (POST 5) in Race 5, and Ghost Cowboy (POST 7) in Race 7. Bynoe's most notable assignment is Taillights (POST 6) in Race 4, where the 1-1 morning line favorite puts the jockey in a high-pressure, high-expectation situation. Bynoe has been riding with steadily improving form this meet.

Neville Stephenson holds the Gourneau stable's primary sprint mount in Race 2 on Hay Scooby Doo (POST 1) and also rides Dominant Spirit (POST 4) in Race 4 for Gourneau. Stephenson is a veteran presence at Assiniboia with deep knowledge of the track's pace patterns and turn characteristics.

Antonio Whitehall has a busy card with mounts in Races 1 through 7 including Twolefttoload (POST 5) in Race 1, Red Road Runner (POST 4) in Race 2, Borderland (POST 2) in Race 5, Buzzinga Karma (POST 7) in Race 6, and Nautical Moon (POST 3) in Race 7. Whitehall's best opportunity may come in Race 4 aboard Lansdowne (POST 2), where the 2-1 morning line reflects genuine competitive expectations from the Jared Brown barn.

Shavon Townsend rides Diane's Wish (POST 2) in Race 1, Falsely Accused (POST 3) in Race 4, and Elston Gunnn (POST 7) in Race 5. The Derby Trial mount on Elston Gunnn (POST 7) at 2-1 is Townsend's most important assignment of the day and the one that will define her afternoon.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Jerry Gourneau is the dominant trainer on this card by sheer volume, saddling horses in six of seven races with multiple entries in Races 2, 3, 5, and 7. The Gourneau barn is a perennial leader at Assiniboia based on wins and starts, and the volume operation creates built-in advantages in terms of track knowledge, jockey relationships, and claiming market awareness. In Race 2, the three-deep entry gives Gourneau genuine control over the pace and tactical outcome. In Race 3, the Bergheim (POST 4) and Mr Jaws (POST 5) combination faces the difficult task of beating Judo (POST 1) from the Keplin Jr. barn. Gourneau's win percentage in stakes races relative to claiming races warrants attention, as the stable's depth is more pronounced in the $7,500 to $10,000 claiming tier than in stakes competition.

Steve Keplin Jr. is the most impactful trainer on the afternoon in terms of stakes engagements. Keplin Jr. sends Judo (POST 1) in Race 3 and Prime Suspect (POST 1) in Race 5, both as morningline co-favorites or heavy favorites. He also trains Taillights (POST 6) in Race 4 at 1-1. Three morningline favorites across three races places Keplin Jr. in a position to dominate the afternoon if his horses are training to form. The trainer's ability to condition horses specifically for Assiniboia's surface and distance configurations is among the best in the current colony.

Jared Brown is quietly one of the most effective trainers at this meet when measured by quality-of-horse placed in appropriate spots. Brown saddles Lansdowne (POST 2) in Race 4, Kauai Dan (POST 2) in Race 3, and Omaha Warrior (POST 5) in Race 5. The Lansdowne (POST 2) entry at 2-1 in Race 4 is Brown's most competitive engagement of the afternoon.

Tom Gardipy Jr. runs Cajun Eddie (POST 3) and Tiz Romantic (POST 9) in Race 6, a typical two-deep entry approach for this conditioner. The 2-1 morning line on CAJUN EDDIE reflects strong confidence in Gardipy's primary runner. Running two horses in a nine-horse field at 1760 furlongs gives Gardipy tactical options, and when the stable fires with the top entry, the secondary runner provides pace-setting or pace-controlling utility.

Robertino Diodoro's Truly Unbelievable (POST 6) in Race 5 is the lone appearance from this more widely recognized conditioner. Diodoro's horses tend to be well-conditioned for stakes distances, and at 6-1 in the Derby Trial, TRULY UNBELIEVABLE is the best-priced contender from a barn with a track record of producing fit, stakes-ready horses.

Wendy Anderson runs Burn Jakey Burn (POST 1) and Funkenstein (POST 4) in Race 6 and Bati King (POST 2) in Race 7, the latter from her own barn. Anderson's workload today reflects a competitive stable looking to capitalize on claiming opportunities, and Bati King (POST 2) at 2-1 in the card-closing race represents the barn's best individual competitive opportunity of the afternoon.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The most impactful wagering structure on this card is the Pick 5 sequence spanning Races 3 through 7. The two $50,000 stakes races sit at the core of this sequence and provide the opportunity for large payouts if one of the co-favorites is upset.

In Race 3, Judo (POST 1) is the single for conservative ticket builders. Using Judo (POST 1) as a single while spreading underneath creates manageable ticket cost. For aggressive players, include Kauai Dan (POST 2) as an alternate in the Pick 5.

In Race 4, Taillights (POST 6) is the single at 1-1, but at that price, using both Taillights (POST 6) and Lansdowne (POST 2) doubles ticket cost while significantly increasing the probability of surviving this leg.

In Race 5, Prime Suspect (POST 1) is the single for most structures. An aggressive split using Prime Suspect (POST 1) and Elston Gunnn (POST 7) covers the top two choices.

In Race 6, this is the best spread leg in the Pick 5. The Ronald (POST 6), Cajun Eddie (POST 3), Bossy Holiday (POST 2), and Wicked Rose (POST 5) are all legitimate contenders in a nine-horse field, and using all four creates a live ticket regardless of the pace outcome.

In Race 7, using Hey Big Un (POST 1) and Bati King (POST 2) as a two-horse split covers the most likely outcome.

A conservative Pick 5 structure — Judo (POST 1) / Taillights (POST 6) / Prime Suspect (POST 1) / THE RONALD and Cajun Eddie (POSTS 6 and 3) / Hey Big Un (POST 1) — costs $2 for a $2 base bet and provides a live ticket if the favorites run true.

The best value single play on the card is Truly Unbelievable (POST 6) at 6-1 in Race 5. Diodoro's barn produces consistently competitive stakes horses, and 6-1 against a 1-1 morning line chalk with a potential pace scenario that suits a stalker represents a genuine overlay. A moderate win wager on Truly Unbelievable (POST 6) with a corresponding exacta of Truly Unbelievable (POST 6) over Elston Gunnn (POST 7) or Prime Suspect (POST 1) covers the most likely non-single outcomes.

The secondary value play on the card is Kauai Dan (POST 2) at 8-1 in Race 3. Against a five-horse field in the R.J. Speers, Kauai Dan (POST 2) with Bynoe aboard from a ground-saving second post is a legitimate contender at a price that will likely be available as the public loads into the two 2-1 co-favorites and the 3-1 Gourneau alternative. The exacta of Judo (POST 1) over Kauai Dan (POST 2) at a projected reasonable price represents one of the card's best risk-reward structures in exotic wagering.

For the card's best exacta value, the Race 6 exacta box of The Ronald (POST 6), Cajun Eddie (POST 3), and Bossy Holiday (POST 2) in a $1 three-horse box produces six combinations at $6 and covers the most realistic outcomes in a nine-horse claiming route where pace complexity creates overlay in the exacta pool.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


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