Posted inAnalysis Reports

Assiniboia Downs – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the July 14, 2026 card

No CommentsPosted inAnalysis, Reports

TL;DR


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Race Day Overview — Assiniboia Downs | July 14, 2026

Assiniboia Downs presents an eight-race card on Tuesday evening featuring two marquee $50,000 stakes events — the Jack Hardy Stakes in Race 3 and the Canada Stakes in Race 6 — alongside a full slate of claiming and optional claiming contests that will test both horseplayers and conditioners at one of Canada's most beloved oval tracks. The card is anchored by the $50,000 Jack Hardy, a local fixture named in honor of one of the track's most celebrated figures, and the Canada Stakes, which traditionally draws some of the better horses stabled at ASD. With two stakes races on a single weeknight card, handle figures should be healthy and exotic pools well-funded.

The claiming landscape ranges from $3,000 maiden claiming in Race 7 up through the $17,500 optional claiming ranks in Race 4, providing a broad cross-section of the Assiniboia Downs stable population. Several trainers appear multiple times on the card, most notably Jerry Gourneau, who saddles runners in six of the eight races, making his barn's form cycle a critical factor for handicappers working the full card. Carl Anderson, Jared Brown, and Wendy Anderson also field multiple runners, adding further barn-trend significance to the evening's analysis.

Jockey colony notes: Antonio Whitehall and Jose Mariano Asencio are among the busiest riders on the card, each booked on multiple mounts across all conditions. Sven Balroop also carries a heavy book, appearing in four races. The colony is active and competitive, with the evening program placing a premium on pace-savvy riding given the variety of sprint and middle-distance configurations on the card.

Weather and Track Conditions — July 14, 2026

Winnipeg in mid-July typically features warm, humid summer evenings, and July 14, 2026 is projected to carry those characteristics. Daytime highs in the Winnipeg area are expected to reach the upper 20s Celsius (low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit) with partly cloudy skies and relatively low wind speeds out of the south-southwest at 10–15 km/h. No significant precipitation is forecast for the evening racing session, and conditions should be consistent throughout the card.

The Assiniboia Downs main track is a 5.5-furlong oval composed of sandy loam and is known for holding up well under dry summer conditions. Without recent rainfall of consequence, the track is expected to be rated fast, which historically at ASD favors horses with tactical early speed or the ability to stalk a manageable pace within two to three lengths of the lead. A fast, dry surface at ASD in July typically plays to the inside-to-middle post positions in sprint events due to the tight turns. Middle-distance routes at 1540 furlongs and 1650 furlongs tend to see stalkers and closers get marginally more opportunity as pace scenarios play out over more ground.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Assiniboia Downs is a tight, short oval, and its configuration produces distinctive bias tendencies that serious handicappers must account for throughout the card.

In sprint races at 1320 furlongs, inside posts — particularly Posts 1 through 3 — have a measurable edge in dry, fast conditions. The short run to the first turn rewards horses that can break sharply and establish inside position early. Horses breaking from outside posts in sprints at ASD must either use significant early energy to secure a good spot or be extremely fast gate horses to compensate for the wider path around the turn.

At 1540 furlongs, the route configuration at ASD involves a sweeping start and a full tour of the oval. Post position bias is somewhat neutralized here compared to sprints, but inside posts still carry a modest advantage. Front-runners and stalkers at the 1540-furlong distance tend to hold better than at many other ovals, particularly on a dry, fast track, because the modest straightaway limits the power of closers who need a longer run to the wire to engage.

At 1650 furlongs, which is the longest distance on tonight's card and used for both stakes races, the additional ground opens the race up somewhat for off-the-pace horses. However, the short run-up to the first turn still means that horses breaking from extreme outside posts — particularly Posts 7 and 8 — must deal with traffic and a wider path early. In tonight's stakes fields, Posts 3 through 6 appear to carry the most positional value at 1650 furlongs.

Overall bias expectation for July 14: Favor horses with early or tactical speed in sprints. In routes, look for stalkers and pace-pressers from inside-to-middle posts who can save ground and pounce in the short stretch. Monitor for any first-race rail bias indicators before making sweeping judgments for later races.

RACE 1 — Post 8:30 — 1540f | D | C | Clm 7500 | BUM | Purse $15,000

Six fillies and mares contest this one-mile-equivalent maiden-optional claiming event at $7,500 for fillies and mares. The field is modestly sized but competitive, and the claiming price reflects a bottom rung of the ASD ladder where form cycles and recent works become heavily weighted.

Race 1

Pace Analysis

With Dontmesswithtess (POST 3) likely to be the morning-line favorite and She's My Niece (POST 4) equally well-regarded, the pace scenario hinges on whether either animal wants to lead or if they will stalk an early pace setter. Cymbal Court (POST 1) and Stand By Time (POST 6) profile as potential early movers from outside positions. If Cymbal Court (POST 1) fires out from the rail and grabs the lead, the pace could be modest, setting up for a closer. If multiple horses contest the pace aggressively early, She's My Niece (POST 4) and Dontmesswithtess (POST 3) should be ideally positioned to pounce in the stretch.

Key Contenders

Dontmesswithtess (POST 3) is trained by Cindy Krasner, a conditioner who has shown consistency placing horses in spots where they can run their race. At co-morningline favoritism of 2-1, this mare carries the confidence of a barn that knows what they have. Kerron Khelawan in the irons is a reliable and well-credentialed rider in this colony, and the inside post at 1540 furlongs positions this horse ideally to stalk and pounce. Krasner's ability to have horses ready for claiming events at this level is a key angle, and Dontmesswithtess (POST 3) represents the class of the field if recent conditioning has gone well.

She's My Niece (POST 4) shares morning line co-favoritism at 2-1 under trainer Carl Anderson and jockey Antonio Whitehall. Anderson is a savvy veteran horseman at Assiniboia Downs who understands the nuances of this track and its claiming ranks. Whitehall is one of the more active and capable riders on the colony, and Post 4 at 1540 furlongs is genuinely comfortable from a positioning standpoint. This filly's placement in the same condition against similar company suggests Anderson is targeting a win, and Whitehall's recent form adds to the appeal.

Secondary Choices

Midnightcandystorm (POST 2) at 4-1 is trained by Tom Gardipy Jr. and will be handled by Tyrone Nelson. Gardipy is a consistent presence at ASD who knows how to spot a horse appropriately, and 4-1 on the morning line suggests some public confidence in this runner. Post 2 from the inside is favorable at this distance, and if this mare shows early foot, she could compete for the exacta. The 4-1 price offers some wagering value if Dontmesswithtess (POST 3) and She's My Niece (POST 4) get into a duel.

Cymbal Court (POST 1) at 6-1 from trainer Steven Gaskin and jockey Devante Prescod breaks from the rail and could take a forward position early in this route. Gaskin is a known quantity at ASD, and if Cymbal Court (POST 1) can set a soft pace from the inside, she becomes dangerous at a price.

Longshots

Dynamic Strike (POST 5) at 12-1 from trainer Wendy Anderson and jockey Ciera Pruitt is a long price that reflects either a fitness question or a significant class gap versus the top choices. Wendy Anderson is active on the card tonight and occasionally springs a barn longshot when her stock is moving forward. Worth a token inclusion in exotics.

Stand By Time (POST 6) at 15-1 from trainer Jerry Gourneau and jockey R. Cumberbatch is the longest price in this field and faces a steep task from the outside post in a route. Gourneau has multiple horses on tonight's card and manages his barn well, but 15-1 at ASD in a six-horse field for fillies and mares reflects a horse that will need significant help to factor. Useful only in large exotics at the bottom.

Selections

Win: Dontmesswithtess (POST 3) Place: She's My Niece (POST 4) Show: Midnightcandystorm (POST 2)

Betting Strategy: Use Dontmesswithtess (POST 3) on top with She's My Niece (POST 4) second in the exacta. A small exacta box between the two co-favorites is the anchor play, with a wheel of Dontmesswithtess (POST 3) over She's My Niece (POST 4) and Midnightcandystorm (POST 2) for the main play.

RACE 2 — Post 9:00 — 1540f | D | C | Clm 5500 | BUM | Purse $13,200

Seven fillies and mares enter this $5,500 claiming event at 1540 furlongs on the dirt. This is a step below Race 1 in claiming price, and the field of seven offers several legitimate wagering angles, particularly with the heavy morning-line favoritism on Girl From De Bayou (POST 7).

Race 2

Pace Analysis

Girl From De Bayou (POST 7) at 2-1 is the morning line choice and likely to draw considerable action. The question in this seven-horse field is pace setup. Jackie Flash (POST 1) and Layla's Song (POST 4), both from the Gourneau barn, could factor into early fractions alongside Sherlyn Go Go (POST 2) from Wendy Anderson's stable. If Girl From De Bayou (POST 7) comes from off the pace as her trainer Elton Dickey often prefers, the early pace dynamics become critical. A genuine pace duel up front would benefit Girl From De Bayou (POST 7), but a soft lead for Layla's Song (POST 4) or Jackie Flash (POST 1) could complicate her task.

Key Contenders

Girl From De Bayou (POST 7) at 2-1 is the clear choice of the morning line and represents trainer Elton Dickey's best chance at a winners circle visit on tonight's card. Sven Balroop, who rides multiple horses this evening, takes the mount and is perfectly capable of navigating the outside post in this seven-horse field. The mare's morning-line odds suggest a legitimate class edge or condition edge over this field, and Balroop's ability to find cover and make a sustained run in the stretch aligns with the distance. She rates as the horse to beat.

Layla's Song (POST 4) at 3-1 is one of two Gourneau entrants in this race, with Dario Dalrymple taking the mount. Gourneau with two horses in the same race is an angle that always warrants scrutiny — often one horse is the true runner while the other provides pace control or is lightly entered. At 3-1, Layla's Song (POST 4) is the higher-regarded of the two barn entries and draws a comfortable middle post that suits the 1540-furlong configuration. If Gourneau sends this one forward from the start, she could steal a lead and hold on.

Secondary Choices

Sherlyn Go Go (POST 2) at 4-1 from Wendy Anderson and Kerron Khelawan is one of the more intriguing plays in this race. Khelawan is a skilled and experienced rider who maximizes what he has underneath him, and Post 2 at 1540 furlongs offers excellent positioning for a stalking trip. Anderson has a couple of horses on tonight's card, suggesting her barn is active and ready. At 4-1, Sherlyn Go Go (POST 2) represents legitimate exacta value and could outrun her morning line.

Smooching (POST 6) at 8-1 from Steven Gaskin and Antonio Whitehall is worth watching. Whitehall rides with considerable activity tonight, and Gaskin-trained horses can be lightly raced and fit when dropping into these price ranges. At 8-1, this horse offers some value in the exotics if the top choices face adversity.

Longshots

Jackie Flash (POST 1) at 6-1 is the second Gourneau entry, handled by S. Chickeness. In a two-horse barn entry, Jackie Flash (POST 1) likely serves a complementary role and is more likely to be a pace factor than a serious win threat, though at 6-1 she is worth a minimum in-the-money consideration in trifectas.

Miss The Hype (POST 3) at 10-1 from Robert Maybin and Christopher Roy Mamdeen is a double-digit underdog who will need the race to set up perfectly. Maybin is a competent conditioner at this level, but 10-1 in a seven-horse field speaks to a horse that has struggled to be competitive in recent outings. Worth bottom inclusion in trifecta and superfecta tickets.

Pineapple Tidbits (POST 5) at 12-1 from Keith Pederson and Jose Mariano Asencio is the second-longest price on the board and comes from a barn that has limited representation on tonight's card. Asencio is capable, but 12-1 at this level in a small field suggests this horse has significant ground to make up. Use only in large superfecta tickets.

Selections

Win: Girl From De Bayou (POST 7) Place: Layla's Song (POST 4) Show: Sherlyn Go Go (POST 2)

Betting Strategy: Girl From De Bayou (POST 7) is the play on top. Exacta: Girl From De Bayou (POST 7) over Layla's Song (POST 4) and Sherlyn Go Go (POST 2). Trifecta: key Girl From De Bayou (POST 7) on top with Layla's Song (POST 4), Sherlyn Go Go (POST 2), and Smooching (POST 6) beneath. The Gourneau double-entry angle is worth tracking — if Layla's Song (POST 4) shows early foot and holds, the exacta at 3-1 could disappoint. Budget accordingly.

RACE 3 — Post 9:25 — 1650f | D | N | JackHardy50k | BOF | Purse $50,000

The first stakes event of the evening is the Jack Hardy Stakes at $50,000 for non-winners, run at 1650 furlongs on the main track. This is the premier local fixture on the card, and six horses line up in what projects as a sharp, competitive affair. The morning line shows What A Force (POST 4) as the even-money favorite, with Evolution (POST 3), Wecanonlyimagine (POST 2), and Steal Your Soul (POST 6) providing legitimate depth.

Race 3

Pace Analysis

What A Force (POST 4) at 1-1 is likely the dominant pace factor in this race. Trained by Tim Rycroft and with Jose Mariano Asencio aboard, this horse figures to establish position early from Post 4 and control the tempo. Evolution (POST 3) from William Tourangeau's barn with Antonio Whitehall may press the issue or stalk from just off the pace. If What A Force (POST 4) is allowed a soft lead, the pace could be moderate, making it difficult for closers to run down the leader in the stretch. Steal Your Soul (POST 6) from Sven Balroop and Steve Keplin Jr. may be the main closing threat, needing a pace battle to set up his rally from the outside.

Key Contenders

What A Force (POST 4) is the deserving even-money favorite based on the morning line — a strong signal that this horse has demonstrated the class, form, and ability to warrant chalk status in the local stakes ranks. Trainer Tim Rycroft is selective in his stakes entries, and when he sends a horse out at 1-1 in a non-winner stakes event, the form cycle is typically in order. Jose Mariano Asencio rides with confidence on horses with tactical speed, and Post 4 at 1650 furlongs is perfectly suited for a horse that wants to be close to the pace. The combination of morning-line support, tactical post, capable jockey, and a trusted trainer makes What A Force (POST 4) the race's anchor.

Evolution (POST 3) at 2-1 is the closest morning-line rival and represents trainer William Tourangeau's best stake opportunity on tonight's card. Antonio Whitehall is a solid book rider who will give Evolution (POST 3) a professional trip from Post 3, which sits just inside of the morning-line favorite. If Evolution (POST 3) can press What A Force (POST 4) and wear that horse down, or if What A Force (POST 4) makes an error, Whitehall has the experience to capitalize. At 2-1, Evolution (POST 3) is a must-use in all exotics and a legitimate win contender.

Secondary Choices

Wecanonlyimagine (POST 2) at 4-1 from Jared Brown's barn with Neville Stephenson in the saddle is the third betting choice and merits serious consideration. Brown has been effective with horses at ASD this meet and has multiple runners on tonight's card, suggesting his horses are fit and ready to run. Stephenson is a competent stakes-caliber rider for this colony, and Post 2 at 1650 furlongs keeps this horse in a ground-saving position. At 4-1, Wecanonlyimagine (POST 2) is an honest wagering price for a legitimate contender.

Steal Your Soul (POST 6) at 4-1 from Steve Keplin Jr. and Sven Balroop is the fourth betting choice and the most likely source of a closing run in this field. Balroop has demonstrated he can get horses home from the outside with a long run at ASD, and if the pace between What A Force (POST 4) and Evolution (POST 3) is genuine, Steal Your Soul (POST 6) could be a powerful late force. At 4-1 and with a legitimate trainer-jockey combination, this horse represents the best overlay potential in the field.

Longshots

Lisa Connects (POST 1) at 20-1 from Jason Homer's barn with Shavon Townsend is the longest price in the field but benefits from the inside rail post at 1650 furlongs. Townsend will look to save all the ground she can, but in a stakes field this competitive at this price, Lisa Connects (POST 1) would need significant improvement to factor meaningfully.

Boujee Britches (POST 5) at 25-1 from Wendy Anderson and Damario Bynoe is effectively a throwout at this level based on morning-line odds. Anderson's barn is active tonight but this runner faces a steep task against the top choices in a quality stakes field. Include on the bottom of large trifecta tickets only.

Selections

Win: What A Force (POST 4) Place: Evolution (POST 3) Show: Steal Your Soul (POST 6)

Betting Strategy: What A Force (POST 4) is the mandatory race key in this stakes event. Exacta: What A Force (POST 4) over Evolution (POST 3), Wecanonlyimagine (POST 2), and Steal Your Soul (POST 6). The best value bet is an exacta of What A Force (POST 4) over Steal Your Soul (POST 6) if pace collapse sets up a closing run. Trifecta: What A Force (POST 4) over Evolution (POST 3) and Wecanonlyimagine (POST 2) over Steal Your Soul (POST 6). At 1-1, a straight win bet on What A Force (POST 4) is not strong value but is appropriate as part of a Pick 3 or Pick 4 key.

RACE 4 — Post 9:50 — 1320f | D | AO | OClm 17500b | BUN | Purse $19,000

Seven horses contest this 1320-furlong optional claiming sprint for fillies and mares, the highest claiming level on tonight's card outside the stakes races. The field is led by co-favorites Ceepeegee (POST 1) and Wico (POST 6) at 2-1 on the morning line, with Chief Brady (POST 2) at 4-1 and Medicine Dog (POST 3) at 6-1 providing support.

Race 4

Pace Analysis

At 1320 furlongs, this race is a pure sprint, and the pace scenario will be intense. Ceepeegee (POST 1) from the rail with Sven Balroop has every incentive to break sharply and steal the inside. Chief Brady (POST 2) from the Gourneau barn with Antonio Whitehall and Medicine Dog (POST 3), also from Gourneau, with Rachaad Knights create a potential traffic situation in the first two furlongs if all three inside horses go for position simultaneously. With Gourneau having both Chief Brady (POST 2) and Medicine Dog (POST 3), pace manipulation is possible, though at a $17,500 level the horses presumably run on their merits. Wico (POST 6) at 2-1 from Jared Brown's barn with Kerron Khelawan may have the luxury of tracking a contested pace from Post 6.

Key Contenders

Ceepeegee (POST 1) at 2-1 from Steve Keplin Jr. and Sven Balroop holds the coveted rail in a 1320-furlong sprint at ASD. As noted in the track bias section, inside posts in sprints at this oval carry a genuine edge, and Balroop is an experienced rider who knows how to maximize that advantage. Keplin Jr. trains a competent barn, and the morning-line co-favoritism signals legitimate ability. If Ceepeegee (POST 1) breaks cleanly and secures the rail early, this horse becomes very difficult to beat at this claiming level.

Wico (POST 6) at 2-1 from Jared Brown and Kerron Khelawan shares the favoritism from Post 6, which is a wider post in a sprint but manageable for a horse with tactical ability. Brown's barn is in active form on tonight's card, and Khelawan's talent makes this a genuine co-favorite rather than a courtesy quote. Wico (POST 6) will likely be positioned just off the early pace and engage in the lane, with Khelawan timing his move to coincide with the front-runners potentially tiring.

Secondary Choices

Chief Brady (POST 2) at 4-1 from Jerry Gourneau and Antonio Whitehall is the third betting choice in this sprint and occupies a very favorable post position at Post 2 from the inside in a seven-horse field. Whitehall has been active and effective on tonight's card, and Gourneau spots horses accurately in optional claiming events. Chief Brady (POST 2) at 4-1 offers solid value if Ceepeegee (POST 1) and Wico (POST 6) engage each other in a speed duel.

Medicine Dog (POST 3) at 6-1 is the second Gourneau entry in this race, with Rachaad Knights taking the mount. As with Race 2's dual Gourneau entry, handicappers should assess which horse Gourneau truly favors. Medicine Dog (POST 3) at 6-1 with a less prominent jockey assignment than Chief Brady (POST 2) suggests this horse may be the barn's secondary option. Still worth using in trifectas at the price.

Longshots

My Wife Is Right (POST 5) at 15-1 from Jerry Gourneau and Dario Dalrymple is the third Gourneau entrant in this race, an unusual occurrence that suggests Gourneau has spread his barn thin across the conditions tonight. At 15-1, My Wife Is Right (POST 5) is likely an also-ran but could show early foot given the crowded pace scenario.

Border Song (POST 4) at 20-1 from Robert Vanoverschof and Jose Mariano Asencio is at a significant price for a sprint of this quality. Vanoverschof trains quietly and can produce a surprise, but 20-1 in a seven-horse field indicates limited competitive history at this level. Best used only on the bottom of superfectas.

Designated Hitter (POST 7) at 12-1 from Carl Anderson and Javaniel R. Patterson rounds out the field from the outside post, a disadvantageous starting point in a 1320-furlong sprint at ASD. Anderson is capable, but the outside post and double-digit odds relegate Designated Hitter (POST 7) to longshot status.

Selections

Win: Ceepeegee (POST 1) Place: Wico (POST 6) Show: Chief Brady (POST 2)

Betting Strategy: The rail advantage for Ceepeegee (POST 1) in a sprint makes this horse the win single. Exacta: Ceepeegee (POST 1) over Wico (POST 6) and Chief Brady (POST 2). Trifecta box of Ceepeegee (POST 1), Wico (POST 6), and Chief Brady (POST 2) is the core play. If price is available, a Wico (POST 6) over Ceepeegee (POST 1) reverse exacta offers insurance at an equal price. The Gourneau three-horse entry makes pace analysis complex, and early fractions will tell the story.

RACE 5 — Post 10:15 — 1540f | D | AO | OClm 12500b | BUM | Purse $17,000

Eight fillies and mares line up in this optional claiming event at 1540 furlongs, making it the largest field on tonight's card. Dancing Raquel (POST 4) and Queen Of Attitude (POST 5) are co-favorites at 2-1, with Blue Spirit (POST 2) at 4-1 as the third choice. The large field creates excellent value opportunities in exotics.

Race 5

Pace Analysis

Eight horses at 1540 furlongs creates a complex pace scenario. The early pace question centers on Payton's Indian (POST 1) from the Gourneau barn with R. Cumberbatch, who may try to establish an early lead from the rail. Dancing Raquel (POST 4) and Queen Of Attitude (POST 5) as co-favorites both figure to be ridden into tactical positions, making it likely the early pace is contested. Blue Spirit (POST 2) from Jared Brown's barn with Neville Stephenson may stalk from a two-path position. With eight horses in the field, the early fractions could be brisk enough to set up a closing run from one of the deeper closers.

Key Contenders

Dancing Raquel (POST 4) at 2-1 from trainer Mike Taphorn and jockey Javaniel R. Patterson occupies a prime middle post in the eight-horse field. Taphorn has limited exposure on tonight's card, suggesting Dancing Raquel (POST 4) is placed here with targeted confidence. Patterson gets a quality opportunity in this spot and will look to position Dancing Raquel (POST 4) within striking distance of the pace. The co-favoritism at 2-1 reflects genuine public respect for this filly's recent form.

Queen Of Attitude (POST 5) at 2-1 from Robert Maybin and Christopher Roy Mamdeen is the second half of the co-favorite pairing. Maybin has multiple horses working tonight and knows this level well. Post 5 in an eight-horse field at 1540 furlongs is a comfortable stalking spot, and Mamdeen has been given a prime mount. If Queen Of Attitude (POST 5) is positioned second or third and can produce a sustained run in the final three furlongs, she becomes the main threat to Dancing Raquel (POST 4).

Secondary Choices

Blue Spirit (POST 2) at 4-1 from Jared Brown and Neville Stephenson rounds out the main wagering choices. Brown's barn appears to be in form on tonight's card, and Post 2 at 1540 furlongs is an excellent tactical position for a stalker. Stephenson has shown the ability to rate horses in route conditions and produce them late. At 4-1, Blue Spirit (POST 2) offers the best odds value among the top three and should be included on all exotic tickets as a legitimate win threat.

Payton's Indian (POST 1) at 6-1 is the Gourneau entry with R. Cumberbatch, and from the rail in a route, this horse could steal a soft lead if the pace scenario cooperates. Gourneau has shown willingness to send horses forward on today's card, and 6-1 on a possible front-runner from the rail at ASD is not a price to discard entirely.

Longshots

Ez Tree Ates (POST 6) at 10-1 from trainer Lise Pruitt and jockey Ciera Pruitt represents a trainer-jockey family combination — always an angle worth noting for possible extra communication and motivation. At 10-1 in an eight-horse field, Ez Tree Ates (POST 6) would be a notable price if this horse can produce a competitive effort. Include in trifectas as a live longshot.

Play Free Bird (POST 7) at 15-1 from Jason Homer and Shavon Townsend comes from a barn that also fields Lisa Connects (POST 1) in Race 3. Homer's barn is active but the 15-1 quote suggests limited competitiveness in this company. Use sparingly in exotic tickets.

Zibibbo (POST 3) at 20-1 from Carl Anderson and Rashawn Brewster is an extreme longshot in this field. Anderson is capable of surprising, but 20-1 in an eight-horse field at this claiming level indicates Zibibbo (POST 3) has little recent evidence of form at this class. Bottom of superfectas only.

Dreamin Out Loud (POST 8) at 30-1 from Judy Hunter and Rachaad Knights is the longest price on tonight's entire card and faces the ultimate uphill battle from Post 8 in an eight-horse route. The 30-1 morning line is a significant deterrent for serious wagering consideration. Omit from all but the largest superfecta tickets.

Selections

Win: Queen Of Attitude (POST 5) Place: Dancing Raquel (POST 4) Show: Blue Spirit (POST 2)

Betting Strategy: With co-favorites at 2-1, there is limited win value on either top choice. The wager structure should emphasize exotics. Exacta box of Queen Of Attitude (POST 5), Dancing Raquel (POST 4), and Blue Spirit (POST 2) is the foundation. Trifecta: key Queen Of Attitude (POST 5) and Dancing Raquel (POST 4) over Blue Spirit (POST 2) and Payton's Indian (POST 1) over all others, with Ez Tree Ates (POST 6) included at the bottom. The large field creates meaningful trifecta and superfecta overlays.

RACE 6 — Post 10:40 — 1650f | D | N | Canada50k | BUM | Purse $50,000

The Canada Stakes is the feature event of the night, a $50,000 stakes for non-winners at 1650 furlongs. Eight horses enter, and the morning line is dominated by Dontgiveupthefight (POST 7) at 1-1, with Bling Dancer (POST 3) at 2-1 and Mad About Marie (POST 8) at 6-1 as the other notable choices. The presence of Robertino Diodoro as a trainer in this race is significant — Diodoro is one of the most decorated and high-percentage conditioners in the Canadian prairies circuit and elsewhere.

Race 6

Pace Analysis

Dontgiveupthefight (POST 7) at 1-1 is likely to define the tempo in this race. With Post 7 in an eight-horse field at 1650 furlongs, this horse will either need to be used forward early or settle and make a move from off the pace. The pace scenario is complicated by Bling Dancer (POST 3) at 2-1, who sits in a more advantageous post position and will exert pressure from closer to the rail. Rocky Bay Rae (POST 1) from Cindy Krasner's barn with R. Cumberbatch on the rail could provide early pace leadership. If the pace is genuine early, Dontgiveupthefight (POST 7) and Bling Dancer (POST 3) both figure to benefit from different positions, creating a sharp final quarter scenario.

Key Contenders

Dontgiveupthefight (POST 7) at 1-1 is trained by Robertino Diodoro, whose win percentage at Canadian tracks is well documented and consistently elite. Diodoro does not enter horses in stakes races unless they are properly prepared and competitive, and the 1-1 morning line reflects both public confidence and the weight of Diodoro's reputation in the barn analysis. Jockey Kimal Santo gets the mount, and while Santo is not the highest-profile rider in this colony, Diodoro has the horse ready and his instructions tend to produce results regardless of the jockey's profile. Post 7 at 1650 furlongs is not ideal but is manageable in an eight-horse field at a longer distance. Dontgiveupthefight (POST 7) is the race's definitive key horse.

Bling Dancer (POST 3) at 2-1 from Robert Vanoverschof and Jose Mariano Asencio is the primary morning-line rival and occupies a superior post position at 1650 furlongs compared to the favorite. Vanoverschof has shown the ability to prepare horses for stakes competition at ASD, and Asencio is a legitimate stakes-level rider in this colony. If Bling Dancer (POST 3) can stalk the pace from Post 3 and sustain a run, the even-money shot from Post 7 becomes vulnerable in the stretch. At 2-1, Bling Dancer (POST 3) is a serious win threat.

Secondary Choices

Mad About Marie (POST 8) at 6-1 from Steve Keplin Jr. and Sven Balroop is the third wagering choice and breaks from the outside post in this eight-horse stakes field. Balroop is experienced enough to navigate the outside starting point, and Keplin Jr. has already sent out Ceepeegee (POST 1) in Race 4 as a co-favorite, indicating his barn is sharp and ready. Mad About Marie (POST 8) at 6-1 has genuine exacta and trifecta value if she can make a sustained move from the outside in the final 400 meters.

Welcometohollywood (POST 4) at 8-1 from Jared Brown and Antonio Whitehall offers Brown's barn a second significant opportunity on tonight's card following Wecanonlyimagine (POST 2) in Race 3. At 8-1 with a favorable middle post and Whitehall — one of the colony's better riders — in the irons, Welcometohollywood (POST 4) is not to be dismissed in trifecta constructions.

Longshots

Rocky Bay Rae (POST 1) at 10-1 from Cindy Krasner and R. Cumberbatch benefits from the inside rail in a 1650-furlong stakes. Krasner trains Dontmesswithtess (POST 3) in Race 1 and fields horses that are consistently competitive. Rocky Bay Rae (POST 1) may set or stalk the early pace and surprise at a price. A live longshot to consider in trifectas.

Midnight Lady (POST 5) at 12-1 from Jerry Gourneau and Damario Bynoe represents Gourneau's lone entry in the feature. Gourneau rarely scores in $50,000 events, and 12-1 reflects that reality. Use only on the bottom of large trifecta and superfecta constructions.

Yankee Doodle (POST 6) at 15-1 from Michael Nault and Javaniel R. Patterson is a price that indicates limited stakes-level credentials. Nault fields infrequent runners at ASD, and 15-1 in this company is a fair reflection of this horse's standing. Throwout for win wagering.

Get My Drift (POST 2) at 25-1 from Jerry Gourneau and S. Chickeness is effectively the longest price in the field for win consideration. Two Gourneau entries in the card's feature at 12-1 and 25-1 suggests neither is a top barn priority. Bottom of superfectas only.

Selections

Win: Dontgiveupthefight (POST 7) Place: Bling Dancer (POST 3) Show: Mad About Marie (POST 8)

Betting Strategy: Dontgiveupthefight (POST 7) is the card's top single and should anchor the win bet and all exotic constructions. Exacta: Dontgiveupthefight (POST 7) over Bling Dancer (POST 3) and Mad About Marie (POST 8). Reverse exacta Bling Dancer (POST 3) over Dontgiveupthefight (POST 7) provides insurance. Trifecta: key Dontgiveupthefight (POST 7) on top over Bling Dancer (POST 3) and Mad About Marie (POST 8) over Welcometohollywood (POST 4) and Rocky Bay Rae (POST 1). The Canada Stakes is the strongest single-race win investment on the card due to Diodoro's consistent win rate in prepared stakes runners.

RACE 7 — Post 11:05 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 3000n1y | BUM | Purse $10,000

The finale is an eight-horse maiden claiming event at $3,000 for horses that have not won in the past year, contested at 1320 furlongs. This is the bottom rung of the claiming ladder at ASD and features some of the most unpredictable horses on tonight's card. The co-favorites are Neighneigh (POST 5) and Miss Z (POST 6) at 2-1, with Norma No (POST 8) at 4-1 and Cressons Lil Charm (POST 7) at 5-1 as the next choices.

Race 7

Pace Analysis

Eight horses in a 1320-furlong sprint at the bottom claiming level create an explosive pace scenario. At $3,000 maiden claiming, individual horses have often struggled for consistency, making pace projections less reliable than in other races on the card. Neighneigh (POST 5) and Miss Z (POST 6) as co-favorites from adjacent posts suggest these two horses may engage in a battle through the stretch. Cressons Lil Charm (POST 7) and Norma No (POST 8) from outside posts will either be used aggressively to take position or rate behind the pace and rely on a closing kick.

Key Contenders

Neighneigh (POST 5) at 2-1 from Carl Anderson's barn with Mathew Bennett is the more straightforwardly positioned of the two co-favorites. Anderson knows this level well and has appeared on tonight's card multiple times, suggesting his horses are fit. Neighneigh (POST 5) from Post 5 in an eight-horse sprint is a manageable draw. Bennett is a capable claiming-race rider, and at 2-1 in this company, Neighneigh (POST 5) carries barn confidence as a legitimate win option.

Miss Z (POST 6) at 2-1 from J. Douglas Mustard and Rachaad Knights shares the favoritism from Post 6 in the sprint. Mustard is a consistent presence in this maiden claiming territory at ASD, and Knights is a solid rider who will maximize whatever ability Miss Z (POST 6) brings to the gate. The rail-to-outside post draw puts Miss Z (POST 6) in a competitive position, and the morning line reflects public respect for this runner.

Secondary Choices

Norma No (POST 8) at 4-1 from Robert Maybin and Christopher Roy Mamdeen is the third wagering choice from the outside post. Maybin has been active on tonight's card and fields horses that run competitive efforts in maiden claiming territory. The 4-1 price and outside post in a sprint are the main obstacles. Mamdeen has been active tonight and could give Norma No (POST 8) a forward trip if she breaks well enough to overcome the Post 8 disadvantage in a sprint.

Cressons Lil Charm (POST 7) at 5-1 from Elton Dickey and Sven Balroop occupies the second-to-outside post in the sprint. Dickey also trained Girl From De Bayou (POST 7) in Race 2, and Balroop has been busy all night. If Cressons Lil Charm (POST 7) shows the kind of ability that Girl From De Bayou (POST 7) demonstrated at a slightly higher level, this horse is worth serious consideration at 5-1.

Longshots

Valerie Valeski (POST 1) at 10-1 from Robert Maybin and Kimal Santo breaks from the inside rail at 1320 furlongs, which at ASD is an advantage in sprints. Maybin has two horses in this race, and while Norma No (POST 8) at 4-1 appears to be the barn's primary choice, Valerie Valeski (POST 1) at 10-1 from the rail in a sprint deserves a serious look on the trifecta bottom.

Maibella (POST 2) at 25-1 from Maria Stanford and R. Cumberbatch is a significant underdog who would need the race to fall apart for the favorites to score. Stanford fields horses at ASD infrequently, and 25-1 in a maiden claiming field of this level reflects limited competitive credentials. Include only in large superfecta tickets.

Jj's American Diva (POST 3) at 30-1 from Jared Brown and Dario Dalrymple is notable in that Brown's barn has had several horses in action tonight. The 30-1 quote, however, is telling even from a typically sharp barn — this horse may be a race-sharpener or off-form runner. Use only on the very bottom of superfectas.

Donnas Final Word (POST 4) at 40-1 from Terry Cole and Neville Stephenson is the longest price on the entire race card tonight. Terry Cole has limited presence at this meet, and 40-1 in a small maiden claiming field reflects essentially no competitive expectation. Omit from all practical wagering constructions.

Selections

Win: Neighneigh (POST 5) Place: Miss Z (POST 6) Show: Norma No (POST 8)

Betting Strategy: At the bottom claiming level, variance is high and the race is genuinely unpredictable. Use Neighneigh (POST 5) and Miss Z (POST 6) as a co-favorite exacta box. Trifecta: box of Neighneigh (POST 5), Miss Z (POST 6), and Cressons Lil Charm (POST 7), with a secondary ticket adding Norma No (POST 8). The maiden claiming finale is best attacked with box bets and a modest win investment rather than a heavy single. Keep overall investment modest in the last race of the evening.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Antonio Whitehall is the busiest and most consequential rider on tonight's card, booked on Cymbal Court (POST 1) in Race 1 — wait, Cymbal Court (POST 1) goes to Devante Prescod. Whitehall rides She's My Niece (POST 4) in Race 1, Smooching (POST 6) in Race 2, Evolution (POST 3) in Race 3, Chief Brady (POST 2) in Race 4, and Welcometohollywood (POST 4) in Race 6. That is five mounts across the card, all at competitive odds, and across a variety of conditions — claiming, optional claiming, and stakes. Whitehall's strength is his ability to rate a horse in route conditions and place it in a stalking position through the middle of a race. Tonight's book gives him multiple live horses.

Jose Mariano Asencio is equally active, riding What A Force (POST 4) in the Jack Hardy Stakes, Border Song (POST 4) in Race 4, Queen Of Attitude (POST 5) in Race 5, and Bling Dancer (POST 3) in the Canada Stakes. The assignment on What A Force (POST 4) and Bling Dancer (POST 3) in both stakes races gives Asencio the highest-profile book on the card. His form and finish in the Jack Hardy Stakes will be closely watched heading into the Canada Stakes later in the card.

Sven Balroop carries a heavy book across four races: Girl From De Bayou (POST 7) in Race 2, Steal Your Soul (POST 6) in Race 3, Ceepeegee (POST 1) in Race 4, and Mad About Marie (POST 8) in Race 6. The assignment on Ceepeegee (POST 1) in the sprint from the rail is his most straightforward opportunity, while Girl From De Bayou (POST 7) as the morning-line choice in Race 2 is another strong booking. Balroop's energy late in the card after an active evening is worth monitoring.

Kerron Khelawan rides Dontmesswithtess (POST 3) in Race 1, Sherlyn Go Go (POST 2) in Race 2, and Wico (POST 6) in Race 4 — three legitimate contenders with favorable positions. Khelawan is experienced and methodical, and three live mounts across the card give him the opportunity for a quality evening.

Kimal Santo is notably booked on Valerie Valeski (POST 1) in Race 7 and Dontgiveupthefight (POST 7) in Race 6. The Canada Stakes assignment for Santo aboard the Diodoro-trained even-money favorite is his biggest opportunity of the evening. Santo has ridden Diodoro horses before in this circuit, and the trainer's ability to prepare a horse removes much of the jockey variable.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Jerry Gourneau is the dominant presence on tonight's card, with entries in six of the eight races: Stand By Time (POST 6) in Race 1, Jackie Flash (POST 1) and Layla's Song (POST 4) in Race 2, Chief Brady (POST 2), Medicine Dog (POST 3), and My Wife Is Right (POST 5) in Race 4, Payton's Indian (POST 1) in Race 5, Get My Drift (POST 2) and Midnight Lady (POST 5) in Race 6. Gourneau's volume is extraordinary for a single card. The key angles: when Gourneau enters two or three horses in the same race, his jockey assignments often signal which horse he believes has the best chance. In Race 4, the fact that Whitehall, a top colony rider, is aboard Chief Brady (POST 2) while Rachaad Knights rides Medicine Dog (POST 3) and Dalrymple takes My Wife Is Right (POST 5) suggests Chief Brady (POST 2) is Gourneau's intended best horse. In Race 2, Layla's Song (POST 4) draws Dalrymple while Jackie Flash (POST 1) gets Chickeness, with Layla's Song (POST 4) at 3-1 suggesting it is the intended runner.

Robertino Diodoro's single entry — Dontgiveupthefight (POST 7) in the Canada Stakes — deserves special attention. Diodoro is widely recognized as one of the premier trainers on the Canadian prairie circuit and has won training titles at multiple Canadian venues. When Diodoro enters a horse in a local stakes, it is typically fit and primed. The 1-1 morning line reflects both the horse's ability and the barn's reputation. Do not look past this entry.

Jared Brown fields horses in Race 3 with Wecanonlyimagine (POST 2), Race 4 with Wico (POST 6), Race 5 with Blue Spirit (POST 2), Race 6 with Welcometohollywood (POST 4), and Race 7 with Jj's American Diva (POST 3). Brown's barn appears to be in active, positive form, and Wico (POST 6) and Blue Spirit (POST 2) are the two most live prospects from his stable based on morning-line odds.

Carl Anderson trains She's My Niece (POST 4) in Race 1, Designated Hitter (POST 7) in Race 4, Zibibbo (POST 3) in Race 5, and Neighneigh (POST 5) in Race 7. His barn has spread across multiple race types and conditions, and She's My Niece (POST 4) and Neighneigh (POST 5) are the two most legitimate wagering propositions.

Steve Keplin Jr. trains Ceepeegee (POST 1) in Race 4, Steal Your Soul (POST 6) in Race 3, and Mad About Marie (POST 8) in Race 6. Three quality horses from one barn across the card, including two stakes horses, signals that Keplin Jr.'s operation is sharp and competitive. Ceepeegee (POST 1) in Race 4 from the rail in a sprint looks like the barn's best opportunity for a straightforward win.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The two strongest single-race investments on tonight's card are Dontgiveupthefight (POST 7) in Race 6 and What A Force (POST 4) in Race 3. Although both horses carry short morning-line prices — 1-1 in each case — they anchor all multi-race exotic structures and represent the card's most reliable win probabilities.

For the Pick 3 covering Races 3, 4, and 5, the recommended structure is What A Force (POST 4) in Race 3 singled, with Ceepeegee (POST 1) and Wico (POST 6) doubled in Race 4, over Queen Of Attitude (POST 5) and Dancing Raquel (POST 4) in Race 5. This creates four distinct combinations and covers the most probable outcomes without becoming cost-prohibitive.

For the Pick 3 covering Races 5, 6, and 7, the structure should use Queen Of Attitude (POST 5) and Dancing Raquel (POST 4) in Race 5, single Dontgiveupthefight (POST 7) in Race 6, and box Neighneigh (POST 5), Miss Z (POST 6), and Cressons Lil Charm (POST 7) in the finale. With a strong single in the middle leg, this ticket manages risk while maximizing finale payoff potential.

The best value exacta on the card is Bling Dancer (POST 3) over Dontgiveupthefight (POST 7) in the Canada Stakes. If Diodoro's horse underperforms slightly and Vanoverschof's runner delivers a strong effort from the superior post position, this exacta pays significantly more than the chalk-over-chalk combination.

The best longshot inclusion on the card is Cressons Lil Charm (POST 7) at 5-1 in Race 7. With Balroop — who has been active and effective all evening — in the irons from the second-to-outside post, and Dickey having already saddled Girl From De Bayou (POST 7) to win or run competitively in Race 2, the 5-1 price on a connected barn longshot in the finale is worth a trifecta inclusion investment.

For multi-race wagers spanning the full card, anchor the sequence on What A Force (POST 4) in Race 3 and Dontgiveupthefight (POST 7) in Race 6 as your two singles, spreading in the four surrounding races. Given the purse structure and the number of competitive fields, a Pick 4 using Races 3, 4, 5, and 6 with these singles in Races 3 and 6 represents the most defensible multi-race structure on tonight's program.

Tonight's card at Assiniboia Downs rewards methodical handicapping. The two stakes events provide clarity for exotic anchors, the claiming and optional claiming races offer genuine value opportunities in the trifecta and superfecta pools, and the presence of high-percentage barns — particularly Diodoro and Keplin Jr. — gives the card reliable form touchstones to build around. Best of luck at the windows.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback