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Finger Lakes hosts an eight-race card today featuring a mix of maiden special weight, maiden claiming, and claiming contests for fillies and mares predominantly. The afternoon card begins at 1:15 PM Eastern with purses ranging from $13,500 to $32,600.
Weather and Track Conditions
Current conditions show overcast skies with temperatures around 54°F and southwest winds gusting to 25 mph. Light rain showers are possible throughout the afternoon with 57% humidity. The track surface should play fair to slightly cuppy if moisture arrives, favoring horses with tactical speed who can avoid traffic. Recent racing has seen the main track rated as fast with typical Finger Lakes conditions.
Race 1 Analysis – Maiden Special Weight (6F, $32,600)
This seven-horse maiden special weight features three-year-old fillies at six furlongs. The race presents several first-time starters alongside fillies with previous experience.
Key Contenders: Light the Mira with Joel Cruz offers intriguing potential under trainer Charlton Baker, who has shown competence with maidens. Hard to Love represents the Ralph D’Alessandro barn, which has been competitive in recent weeks based on local form. Bank On Bebe brings Oscar Gomez aboard for trainer Robbie Davis, a combination that has found success at the track.
Secondary Choices: Luminescynt debuts for the Marialice Coffey stable with Emanuel De Diego, who has been among the leading riders recently. Giuliana’s Dream adds another dimension with Andre Worrie for Jeffrey Englehart.
Pace Analysis: The race lacks obvious early speed, suggesting it could develop into a moderate pace scenario where position flexibility becomes crucial.
Wagering Angles: Consider Light the Mira for value in the win pool, with Hard to Love as an exacta complement. Bank On Bebe offers place security.
Race 2 Analysis – Maiden Claiming (6F, $17,000)
The six-horse maiden claimer at the $11,000 level presents opportunities for horses stepping down from higher conditions.
Key Contenders: I’m Pretty Good drops from maiden special weight company with Emanuel De Diego for trainer Lisa Reed. The class relief combined with the leading rider makes this filly a logical choice. Only La Duss brings Oscar Gomez for Linda Dixon, a trainer who has shown recent form.
Secondary Choices: Jessica’s Ride returns with Kevin Navarro for Jonathan Buckley, a trainer showing 18% wins from 64 starters over the past three weeks. T D Magee represents Ralph D’Alessandro with apprentice Reylu Gutierrez.
Key Angles: The class drop for I’m Pretty Good appears significant after facing stronger opposition previously.
Wagering Strategy: I’m Pretty Good stands out as the most logical choice, with Only La Duss and Jessica’s Ride as exacta coverage.
Race 3 Analysis – Maiden Claiming (1M70Y, $13,500)
The seven-horse route maiden claimer at the $5,000 level presents a wide-open affair over the extended distance.
Key Contenders: War Terminatrix stretches out to the route for trainer Donna Bireta with Oscar Gomez. The distance change could unlock improvement. Candy Is Dandy brings Keiber Coa for John Grabowski in what appears a competitive spot.
Secondary Choices: Belliqueux has shown some ability in previous starts and gets Heman Harkie aboard. Secret Fire represents trainer Ortis Henry with Rafael Rohena Jr.
Pace Analysis: The longer distance should create opportunities for closers, with the race likely to develop at a moderate pace.
Wagering Angles: War Terminatrix offers value at likely odds, with Candy Is Dandy providing exacta depth.
Race 4 Analysis – Maiden Claiming (6F, $13,500)
The ten-horse maiden claimer presents the most competitive field of the early races.
Key Contenders: Anna Vee brings class from previous efforts and gets Luis Pena aboard. The six-year-old mare has shown consistent effort patterns. Crystal drops the apprentice allowance with Andre Worrie for Timothy Murphy, suggesting connections expect improvement.
Secondary Choices: Crews in to Win has shown some ability for trainer Samuel Morales with Rafael Rohena Jr. Gonna Be Surprised represents the always-dangerous Oscar Gomez and trainer Debra Breed combination.
Longshot Consideration: Trish makes her second start for Jonathan Buckley with Kevin Navarro, a combination that produced recent winners.
Wagering Strategy: Anna Vee offers the most consistent form, while Crystal provides value underneath in exotics.
Race 5 Analysis – Maiden Special Weight (1M, $32,600)
Race 5 presents the most intriguing contest on the Finger Lakes card, featuring eight two-year-olds competing in a maiden special weight at one mile. This race represents the highest purse for juveniles and typically attracts well-bred stock making their debuts or lightly raced prospects seeking their first victory.
Race Overview
The mile distance for two-year-olds creates a unique dynamic, as many juveniles at this level have primarily competed at sprint distances. The extended trip should favor horses with tactical speed and stamina, while early pace will be crucial in determining the outcome.
Key Contenders Analysis
Cryster (3) emerges as the most logical choice based on connections and breeding. Trained by Paul Barrow, who shows a 17% win rate from 204 starters this year, the colt brings proven two-year-old experience with jockey Jeremias Flores. Barrow has demonstrated competence with juveniles, and the trainer-jockey combination provides confidence. The colt carries the standard 120 pounds and should appreciate the mile distance.
Maturation (4) represents the potent Jonathan Buckley-Kevin Navarro combination that has been dominant at Finger Lakes recently. Buckley shows an 18% win rate from 64 starters over the past three weeks, while Navarro continues as one of the leading riders at the track. The two-year-old colt makes his debut, which adds some uncertainty, but the connections suggest significant ability.
Sliceaway (6) brings the most prestigious connections, trained by Hall of Fame conditioner Nicholas Zito. Zito’s reputation with two-year-olds spans decades, and his presence at Finger Lakes with a juvenile maiden suggests hidden quality. The filly gets Andre Worrie aboard and carries the filly weight of 117 pounds, providing a three-pound advantage. Zito’s juveniles often improve significantly from their debuts, making this filly dangerous despite first-time starter status.
Secondary Choices
A Bit Raggity (8) represents the Oscar Gomez-Lisa Reed combination, with Gomez leading the current rider standings. Reed shows consistent form with maidens, and the gelding has shown some ability in previous efforts. The Gomez factor alone makes this runner worthy of consideration in exotic wagering.
Same Old Story (1) debuts for trainer Ronald Breed Jr. with Joel Cruz. While lacking the star connections of other contenders, the colt draws the rail position, which could prove advantageous in a route race if he shows early speed.
Almez (5) comes from the Michael Ferraro barn with Luis Perez. Ferraro has shown moderate success with two-year-olds, and the gelding’s breeding suggests route potential. The connection warrants respect based on recent form.
Longshot Considerations
Spectacular Belle (2) gets the significant apprentice weight allowance with Reylu Gutierrez, dropping to 117 pounds. Trained by Jeremiah Englehart, the filly offers value if the weight break proves decisive. The outside post could work favorably in a route scenario.
Back to Khali (7) represents Chris Englehart, showing 21% wins from 32 recent starters. The filly carries 117 pounds with J.M. Rohena and could offer value at likely odds.
Pace Analysis
The mile distance should create a more measured early pace compared to sprint races. Cryster appears most likely to show tactical speed early, while Maturation’s debut status makes his running style uncertain. Sliceaway, coming from the powerful Zito barn, likely possesses the stamina to handle the distance regardless of early position. The pace scenario should favor horses who can secure good position without expending excessive energy.
Key Breeding and Pedigree Angles
Sliceaway shows particularly interesting breeding as a daughter of Flameaway, a stallion producing winners at various distances. The sire has shown ability to get route runners, which bodes well for the mile distance. Cryster’s breeding suggests stamina influences that should help at the extended trip.
Trainer Pattern Analysis
Nicholas Zito’s presence with Sliceaway cannot be overlooked. The Hall of Fame trainer rarely ships horses to smaller tracks without genuine belief in their ability. His juveniles often show dramatic improvement from debut to second start, but even first-time starters from the Zito barn deserve maximum respect.
Paul Barrow’s 17% win rate demonstrates consistent competence, particularly with developing horses. His decision to stretch Cryster to a mile suggests confidence in the colt’s stamina.
Wagering Strategy and Value Analysis
Win Selection: Cryster offers the best combination of proven connections, racing experience, and suitability for the distance. The Barrow-Flores combination provides confidence at likely attractive odds.
Place/Show Coverage: Sliceaway deserves serious consideration despite first-time starter status, as Zito juveniles often run well fresh. Maturation brings the hot Buckley-Navarro team and could surprise at first asking.
Exacta Strategy: Key Cryster over Sliceaway and Maturation in the top spot, while reversing the combination underneath. The three horses represent the strongest connections and most logical contenders.
Superfecta Value: Include A Bit Raggity fourth based on the Gomez factor, with Same Old Story as a deep longshot if early pace develops favorably for a rail-running closer.
Final Assessment
Race 5 presents genuine quality among two-year-olds, with the mile distance serving as the key differentiator. Cryster appears most prepared for the task based on experience and connections, while Sliceaway brings the wild card element of Zito’s training expertise. Maturation could surprise if showing the expected improvement from the powerful Buckley stable. The race should develop at a honest pace, favoring horses with tactical speed and stamina – qualities that Cryster appears most likely to possess.
Race 6 Analysis – Claiming (6F, $13,800)
The twelve-horse claiming contest presents the most complex wagering race of the card.
Key Contenders: Scales of Gold drops in class with Oscar Gomez for Ralph D’Alessandro, a combination that has produced recent winners. Go Get the Bag brings speed for trainer Donna Bireta with Jeremias Flores.
Secondary Choices: Union Navy has shown consistent form for Jonathan Buckley with Kevin Navarro. Deputy Tramon offers value with Luis Perez for William Bartlett.
Longshot Angles: With Know Name presents an interesting price possibility with trainer Ilmar Loaiza, while Rockible gets the significant weight break with apprentice Yalexamarie Cintron.
Wagering Strategy: The large field suggests focusing on value plays and spreading tickets in exotics rather than seeking a single dominant choice.
Race 7 Analysis – Allowance (1M, $26,900)
Race 7 presents the highest-quality contest on the Finger Lakes card, featuring eight fillies and mares in an allowance condition for horses that have never won three races. The one-mile distance and $26,900 purse attracts competitive stock, with several horses showing recent form that suggests they’re ready for breakthrough performances.
Race Overview
This allowance contest restricts entry to fillies and mares three years old and upward that have never won three races, with non-winners of a race at a mile or over since August 22 receiving a two-pound weight break. The conditions create opportunities for horses stepping up in class or stretching out in distance, while the quality purse ensures competitive participation.
Key Contenders Analysis
Only in My Dreams (4) emerges as the logical choice based on recent form and connections. The three-year-old filly by Global Campaign represents trainer David Oyola with Kevin Navarro, a combination that has shown recent success. Carrying 119 pounds due to the allowance conditions, she gets the benefit of both youth and favorable weight distribution. Her breeding by Global Campaign, a Grade 1 winner standing at WinStar Farm, suggests route ability and class. Recent performances show improvement patterns that align with this step up in competition.
Krystalheir (5) brings consistent form for the powerful Marialice Coffey stable with Emanuel De Diego. The five-year-old mare has shown steady improvement at Finger Lakes, including recent competitive efforts in similar company. Her best career victory came at Belmont Park in a $79,998 race in May 2024, demonstrating ability to handle quality competition. The Coffey-De Diego combination has produced recent winners, and Krystalheir’s $6,641 average earnings per start indicate consistent competitive ability.
Going Home Now (3) represents veteran trainer Judy Turetsky with Rafael Rohena Jr. The six-year-old mare brings extensive experience and has shown competitive form in recent allowance company. Her recent efforts include solid performances at the distance, and the route specialization makes her particularly dangerous in this spot. Despite longer odds, her class and experience in similar conditions warrant serious consideration.
Secondary Choices
Redwineandwhiskey (7) comes from the Linda Dixon barn, a trainer showing consistent form with older fillies and mares. The four-year-old carries 122 pounds with Luis Perez, who has demonstrated competence in route races. According to algorithmic predictions, this filly rates as the top choice with 4/1 odds, suggesting hidden form or recent improvement.
Rubys Mission (2) brings experience as a five-year-old mare for trainer Luis Gutierrez with Michael Davila Jr. Recent odds of 10/1 suggest respect from the betting public, while her experience at the distance provides foundation for improvement.
Yankee Doodle (1) debuts for trainer Michael Ferraro with apprentice Reylu Gutierrez. The three-year-old filly gets the rail draw and significant weight break, making her an interesting value play if showing early speed.
Longshot Considerations
Marilyn’s Ny Pride (6) represents the always-dangerous Oscar Gomez aboard a three-year-old filly for William Bartlett. Gomez continues leading the rider standings, and his presence alone demands respect. The filly carries 119 pounds and could surprise at likely generous odds.
Giant At Work (8) brings Andre Worrie for trainer Charlton Baker. The three-year-old filly rounds out the field from the outside post but carries favorable weight at 121 pounds.
Pace Analysis
The one-mile distance should create opportunities for tactical development, with several horses possessing route experience. Only in My Dreams and Krystalheir both show patterns suggesting they can rate kindly off the pace, while Going Home Now’s experience indicates she can adapt to various pace scenarios. The race lacks obvious front-runners, suggesting a moderate pace that should favor horses with finishing ability.
Breeding and Pedigree Angles
Only in My Dreams represents the strongest breeding angle as a daughter of Global Campaign, a son of Curlin who won the Grade 1 Woodward with a 104 Beyer Speed Figure. Global Campaign’s progeny have shown ability to handle route distances, and his early runners are establishing him as a successful young sire. The dam Childhood Dream by Freud provides additional stamina influences suitable for the mile distance.
Trainer and Jockey Analysis
Kevin Navarro continues his dominant form at Finger Lakes, particularly when partnered with horses from quality connections. His recent partnership with trainer David Oyola has produced competitive results, suggesting the combination understands each other’s methods.
Marialice Coffey maintains a solid reputation with route horses and fillies/mares. Her handling of Krystalheir shows patience and progressive training methods that have resulted in consistent competitive efforts.
Judy Turetsky brings extensive experience with older fillies and mares. Her approach with Going Home Now has produced steady form, and the trainer’s reputation suggests the mare enters in peak condition.
Class and Form Analysis
The allowance conditions create interesting dynamics, as several horses appear ready to graduate from maiden or lower-level claiming company. Only in My Dreams shows the most upward trajectory based on recent efforts and breeding, while Krystalheir brings proven ability at the level. Going Home Now provides the experience factor that often proves decisive in route races.
Wagering Strategy and Value Assessment
Win Selection: Only in My Dreams offers the best combination of improving form, quality connections, and favorable breeding for the distance. At 8/1 odds, she presents solid value as the logical choice.
Place/Show Coverage: Krystalheir deserves respect at 15/1 odds based on consistent form and proven ability. Going Home Now at 20/1 provides excellent value for place consideration given her route experience.
Exacta Strategy: Key Only in My Dreams over Krystalheir, Going Home Now, and Redwineandwhiskey. The algorithmic preference for Redwineandwhiskey at 4/1 suggests hidden improvement that warrants inclusion.
Superfecta Opportunities: Include Rubys Mission and Marilyn’s Ny Pride as longer shots who could complete exotic payouts. The Gomez factor with Marilyn’s Ny Pride makes her particularly dangerous at likely generous odds.
Final Assessment
Race 7 presents legitimate allowance quality with several horses possessing the credentials to graduate to higher levels. Only in My Dreams appears most ready for the breakthrough performance based on breeding, connections, and recent form trajectory. The race should develop at a reasonable pace favoring horses with tactical speed and finishing ability – qualities that Only in My Dreams appears most likely to possess. Krystalheir provides the most reliable alternative based on consistent form, while Going Home Now offers value based on experience and distance suitability.
Race 8 Analysis – Claiming (1M, $13,800)
The finale features eight fillies and mares in a claiming contest over one mile.
Key Contenders: Jessica’s Race brings proven route ability for trainer Paul Barrow with Jeremias Flores. Divorced of Course represents Ralph D’Alessandro with Keiber Coa, a trainer showing recent form.
Secondary Choices: Glory Bound Clara has shown consistent effort for William Bartlett with Luis Perez. Happy Time offers closing punch for James Acquilano with Joel Cruz.
Wagering Strategy: Jessica’s Race provides the most reliable form, with Divorced of Course offering trainer angle support.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Oscar Gomez continues leading the rider standings at Finger Lakes with recent winners including multiple victories in the past week. His mounts Bank On Bebe (Race 1), Only La Duss (Race 2), War Terminatrix (Race 3), Gonna Be Surprised (Race 4), A Bit Raggity (Race 5), Scales of Gold (Race 6), and Marilyn’s Ny Pride (Race 7) all deserve extra consideration.
Kevin Navarro has shown excellent recent form with multiple winners for trainer Jonathan Buckley. His partnership with Buckley horses including Jessica’s Ride (Race 2), Trish (Race 4), Maturation (Race 5), Union Navy (Race 6), and Only in My Dreams (Race 7) warrants attention.
Emanuel De Diego continues strong form with recent victories and quality mounts throughout the card. His rides include Luminescynt (Race 1), I’m Pretty Good (Race 2), It’s Not Over Yet (Race 6), and Krystalheir (Race 7).
Trainer Notes and Insights
Jonathan Buckley leads recent trainer statistics with 12 wins from 64 starters over the past 21 days, representing an 18% win rate. His horses Jessica’s Ride, Trish, Maturation, Union Navy, and Only in My Dreams all merit consideration.
Ralph D’Alessandro maintains consistent form with recent winners and quality stock. His entries Hard to Love, T D Magee, Scales of Gold, It’s Not Over Yet, and Divorced of Course all deserve respect.
Chris Englehart shows 21% recent wins from 32 starters. His horses Giuliana’s Dream and Classiwest warrant attention based on trainer form.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Single Race Plays: Focus on I’m Pretty Good (Race 2) as the strongest individual play of the card based on class relief and connections. Light the Mira (Race 1) offers value in the opener.
Multi-Race Strategies: Consider Pick-3 combinations linking the stronger plays in Races 1-2-3, focusing on Light the Mira/Hard to Love with I’m Pretty Good and War Terminatrix/Candy Is Dandy.
Value Opportunities: Race 6 presents the best value opportunities with the large field and competitive nature. Longshot considerations include With Know Name and Rockible based on pace scenarios.
Late Pick-4 Strategy: The final four races (5-6-7-8) offer exotic opportunities, with Cryster/Maturation, spreading in Race 6, Going Home Now/Only in My Dreams, and Jessica’s Race providing structured approaches.
The card presents several logical plays combined with challenging multi-horse fields that favor spreading strategies in the exotic pools. Weather conditions should play fairly for all running styles, with slight advantages to horses who can secure good early position to avoid traffic in the stretch drives.
